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At least 73 records · Page 4

Aerosol effective radiative forcing increases Earth’s energy imbalance in recent decades

Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI), a key driver of climate change, has risen markedly over the last two decades. Greenhouse gas forcing, aerosol forcing, and cloud feedback all contribute to this increase. However, the role of aerosol forcing, particularly effective radiative forcing through aerosol-cloud interactions (ERF ACI ), remains highly uncertain and closely intertwined with cloud feedback. Here, we estimate shortwave ERF ACI using satellite observations and show its importance as a contributor to the EEI increase between 2003 and 2023. ERF ACI exhibits a significant increasing trend of 0.33 Wm −2 /decade averaged over oceans between 60°S and 60°N. The increasing trend of ERF ACI stems from a global decline in cloud droplet number concentration driven by decreasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is of similar magnitude as the combined instantaneous forcing trend from greenhouse gases and aerosol-radiation interactions. Our results may reduce the gap between the simulated and observed shortwave contribution to EEI trends while implying a weak shortwave cloud feedback. They also suggest a stronger aerosol forcing than the multi-model mean.

Yuan, Tianle [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GS

Machine learning reveals strong grid-scale dependence in the satellite N d –LWP relationship

The relationship between cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) and liquid water path (LWP) is highly uncertain yet crucial for determining the impact of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) on Earth's radiation budget. The N d -LWP relationship is examined using a machine learning (ML) random forest model applied to five years of satellite data at grid resolutions ranging from 10° to 0.05° in 12 distinct regions. In the subtropics, the shape of the N d -LWP relationship switches from an inverted-V at 1° grid-resolution to an “M” shape at 0.1° resolution with decreased $\frac{\textrm{dln⁡LWP}}{\textrm{dln⁡}N_d}$ sensitivity. Tropical and midlatitude regions generally show a more positive sensitivity. Cloud sampling and filtering also influence this slope, wherein the exclusion of thin clouds, as commonly performed to reduce retrieval uncertainty, leads to strongly negative sensitivity across all regions. Precipitation is primarily responsible for driving the strength of the sensitivity, with strong positive slopes in raining clouds and negative and/or neutral responses found in non-raining clouds. A new method to compute radiative forcing from the ML model shows a robust Twomey radiative forcing across all regions and grid resolutions. However, LWP and cloud fraction adjustments to the radiative forcing, which are ∼50 % or smaller than the Twomey effect, decrease to negligible values with higher spatial resolution data. As Earth system models move toward higher spatial resolutions in the future, evaluating the LWP and CF adjustment contributions to the radiative forcing budget at these finer resolutions will be essential for evaluation and model development.

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions

Evaluating spectral cloud effective radius retrievals from the Enhanced MODIS Airborne Simulator (eMAS) during ORACLES

Satellite remote sensing retrievals of cloud effective radius (CER) are widely used for studies of aerosol–cloud interactions. Such retrievals, however, rely on forward radiative transfer (RT) calculations using simplified assumptions that can lead to retrieval errors when the real atmosphere deviates from the forward model. Here, coincident airborne remote sensing and in situ observations obtained during NASA's ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) field campaign are used to evaluate retrievals of CER for marine boundary layer stratocumulus clouds and to explore impacts of forward RT model assumptions and other confounding factors. Specifically, spectral CER retrievals from the Enhanced MODIS Airborne Simulator (eMAS) and the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) are compared with polarimetric retrievals from RSP and with CER derived from droplet size distributions (DSDs) observed by the Phase Doppler Interferometer (PDI) and a combination of the Cloud and Aerosol Spectrometer (CAS) and the Two-Dimensional Stereo Probe (2D-S). The sensitivities of the eMAS and RSP spectral retrievals to assumptions about the DSD effective variance (CEV) and liquid water complex index of refraction are explored. CER and CEV inferred from eMAS spectral reflectance observations of the backscatter glory provide additional context for the spectral CER retrievals. The spectral and polarimetric CER retrieval agreement is case dependent, and updating the retrieval RT assumptions, including using RSP polarimetric CEV retrievals as a constraint, yields mixed results that are tied to differing sensitivities to vertical heterogeneity. Moreover, the in situ cloud probes, often used as the benchmark for remote sensing CER retrieval assessments, themselves do not agree, with PDI DSDs yielding CER values 1.3–1.6 µm larger than CAS and with CEV roughly 50 %–60 % smaller than CAS. Implications for the interpretation of spectral and polarimetric CER retrievals and their agreement are discussed.

Meyer, Kerry [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GS

Implications of Sea Breeze Circulations on boundary layer aerosols in the southern coastal Texas region

The Sea Breeze Circulation (SBC) influences atmospheric processes at multiple scales in coastal regions. Understanding how SBCs impact the aerosol number budget and aerosol–cloud interaction processes is essential. This study investigates sea breeze–aerosol interactions (SAIs) during 46 summertime SBC events using data from the TRacking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) field campaign across urban (main) and rural (supplemental) coastal sites in southern Texas. Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulations complement observations to explore spatio-temporal meteorological controls on boundary layer aerosols. During the summertime, Sea Breeze Fronts (SBF) penetrating inland transported cool, moist air over the land, introducing air masses with distinct properties compared to the preexisting continental air. These SAIs cause variability in number concentrations of up to a factor of two, with events typically lasting ∼ 5 h before returning to background conditions. SAI impact on aerosols varies with site proximity to water and the preceding sea breeze (SB) history, primarily affecting the marine-influenced accumulation mode. The main site, influenced by both Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, reflects a stronger marine influence. In contrast, a supplemental site, at a similar shoreline distance but exposed only to the Gulf of Mexico and typically upstream of the urban core, samples SB air that has traversed land and partially regained continental characteristics. Simulations show that the regional SAIs extend ∼ 50 km inland and reach up to the boundary layer height. SAIs further decrease cloud condensation nuclei relevant aerosol number concentrations in ∼ 20 % of events during SBF passage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Model Sensitivities of Biomass-Burning Aerosol Chemical Aging, Sulfate Formation, and Cloud Droplet Activation in the Southeastern Atlantic Using CESM and E3SM

Biomass-burning smoke drives large uncertainty in climate projections of the Earth's radiative balance. This is due to the chemical and physical evolution of smoke and its impact on clouds and radiation. Here we focus on the southeastern Atlantic region and its inflow of African biomass-burning smoke during August 2017. We evaluate smoke properties and processes in two coupled earth-system models, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and Community Earth System Model (CESM). These are compared against in situ aircraft observations from two field campaigns, ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) and CLoud–Aerosol–Radiation Interaction and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY-2017). Observations reveal an increase and subsequent decrease in smoke mean diameter, and a steady decrease in the mass ratio of organic aerosol (OA) to black carbon aerosol (BC) (OA:BC) over 4–12 days of aging, neither captured by the base models. Implementation of a photolytic loss scheme for secondary organic aerosol (SOA)—as a proxy for other heterogeneous volatilization chemistry—and a ∼1-day conversion for primary OA to SOA significantly improves the representation of this loss. In the boundary layer, both models show dimethyl sulfide driving a large increase in the sulfate aerosol mass fraction from the free troposphere, which is consistent with observations. Finally, models tend to underpredict cloud droplet number concentration partially due to weak modeled turbulent updraft strength, and model performance improves when the parameterized turbulent updraft strength is increased substantially. These results are expected to provide insights into future model development to reduce climate model uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 1. Overview of the Atmospheric Component

This paper describes the atmospheric component of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 3. Significant updates have been made to the atmospheric physics compared to earlier versions. Specifically, interactive gas chemistry has been implemented, along with improved representations of aerosols and dust emissions. A new stratiform cloud microphysics scheme more physically treats ice processes and aerosol‐cloud interactions. The deep convection parameterization has been largely improved with sophisticated microphysics for convective clouds, making model convection sensitive to large‐scale dynamics, and incorporating the dynamical and physical effects of organized mesoscale convection. Improvements in aerosol wet removal processes and parameter re‐tuning of key aerosol and cloud processes have improved model aerosol radiative forcing. The model's vertical resolution has increased from 72 to 80 layers with the extra eight layers added in the lower stratosphere to better simulate the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation. These improvements have enhanced E3SM's capability to couple aerosol, chemistry, and biogeochemistry and reduced some long‐standing biases in simulating tropical variability. Compared to its predecessors, the model shows a much stronger signal for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby‐gravity waves, and eastward inertia‐gravity waves. Aerosol radiative forcing has been considerably reduced and is now better aligned with community best estimates, leading to significantly improved skill in simulating historical temperature records. Its simulated mean‐state climate is largely comparable to E3SMv2, but with some notable degradation in shortwave cloud radiative effect, precipitable water, and surface wind stress, which will be addressed in future updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advancing the Understanding of Cloud Microphysical Processes and Aerosol Indirect Effects in High-Latitude Mixed-Phase Clouds by Linking ARM Measurements with Climate Model Simulations (Final Report)

The key objectives of this project were to advance our understanding of cloud microphysical characteristics and aerosol indirect effects on mixed-phase clouds in high latitudes. To improve the representation of ice and mixed-phase clouds in Earth System Models (ESMs), we propose an integrated observation and modeling study of cloud macro- and microphysical properties, including spatial heterogeneities, mass partitioning between ice crystals and supercooled liquid water, effects of ice nucleating particles (INPs), and efficiency of secondary ice production (SIP), etc. Specifically, we took four main approaches in this project: (1) examining macro- and microphysical properties of ice and mixed-phase clouds based on in-situ and ground-based observations from multiple field campaigns funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, including the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE), Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), Ice Nucleating Particle Sources at Oliktok Point (INPOP), ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS), and Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE); (2) evaluating the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulations based on observations, particularly for ice and mixed-phase cloud microphysical properties; (3) examining the impacts of INPs on ice and mixed-phase clouds. Specifically, a series of comparisons were conducted using observations over the Arctic, Southern Ocean, and Antarctica, including comparisons between the lower and higher southern latitudes as well as comparisons between the northern and southern hemispheres. In addition, aerosol indirect effects from distinct sources of dust particles were examined; and (4) investigating the impacts of SIP. Ultimately, these results helped to improve cloud microphysics and aerosol-cloud interaction parameterizations in the E3SM model. Overall, the project provided improved understanding regarding various factors, including thermodynamic, dynamic, and aerosol conditions, on the micro- and macrophysical properties of ice and mixed-phase clouds in the high latitudes. Resulting analysis helped to provide an improved physical basis for refining the current cloud microphysics parameterizations related to ice and mixed-phase clouds in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Assessing modifications to the Abdul-Razzak and Ghan aerosol activation parameterization (version ARG2000) to improve simulated aerosol–cloud radiative effects in the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM version 13.0)

The representation of aerosol activation is a key source of uncertainty in global composition-climate model simulations of aerosol–cloud interactions. The Abdul-Razzak and Ghan (ARG) activation parameterization is used in several global and regional models that employ modal aerosol microphysics schemes. In this study, we investigate the ability of the ARG parameterization to reproduce simulations with a cloud parcel model and find its performance is sensitive to the geometric standard deviations (widths) of the lognormal aerosol modes. We recommend adjustments to three constant parameters in the ARG equations, which improve the performance of the parameterization for small mode widths and its ability to simulate activation in polluted conditions. For the accumulation mode width of 1.4 used in the Met Office Unified Model (UM), the modifications decrease the mean bias in the activated fraction of aerosols compared to a cloud parcel model from −6.6 % to +1.2 %. We implemented the improvements in the UM and compared simulated global cloud droplet concentrations with satellite observations. The simulated cloud radiative effect changes by −1.43 W m −2 (6 %) and aerosol indirect radiative forcing over the industrial period changes by −0.10 W m −2 (10 %).

Ghosh, Pratapaditya [Carnegie Mellon University, P

Targeted Mobile Measurements to Isolate the Impacts of Aerosols and Meteorology on Deep Convection

One of the main goals of the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) field campaign near Houston, TX was to improve understanding of meteorology and aerosol effects on deep convective storms. To help TRACER achieve its goals of disentangling aerosol-cloud interactions from meteorology, the Texas A&M University (TAMU) team deployed the new fully mobile Rapid Onsite Atmospheric Measurement Van (ROAM-V) carrying instruments to measure aerosol and atmospheric properties that was moved to multiple locations on a deployment day of isolated convection initiated by the sea breeze.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

The Interaction Between Climate Forcing and Feedbacks

A Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE) with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) is used to better understand the sensitivity of aerosol forcing and cloud feedbacks to changes in model processes. Aerosol forcing through aerosol-cloud interactions is mostly negative (a cooling) due to shortwave radiation, while feedbacks are positive or negative in different regions due to contrasting longwave and shortwave effects. Both forcing and feedbacks are related to the mean climate state. Higher magnitude cloud radiative effects generally mean larger magnitude net negative forcing and larger magnitude net positive feedback. Aerosol forcing is broadly related to the susceptibility of clouds to drop number. Feedbacks also related to susceptibility, but to a lesser extent and in different regions to aerosol forcing. Aerosol forcing and cloud feedbacks are anti-correlated in the CAM6 PPE such that stronger negative forcing is associated with stronger positive feedbacks. Even the processes governing forcing and feedback sensitivity in the PPE are similar. These include the warm rain formation process, ice loss processes and deep convective intensity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Freezing Processes in Southern Ocean Mixed Phase Clouds (Final Technical Report)

Southern Ocean (SO) low-level clouds remain a challenge for Earth system models to represent accurately. This project utilized DOE ARM observations and the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) to improve process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions and cloud microphysics for SO mixed-phase clouds. Specifically, our efforts include two main topics: 1) investigate the SO aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particle (INP) population based on observations and determine predictive skill of simulating SO INPs, and 2) assess the ice formation pathways, including ice nucleation and secondary ice production, in SO mixed phase clouds utilizing a combination of observations and modeling tools. Studies focused on SO aerosol and INP resulted four manuscripts. Ice formation pathways in SO mixed phase clouds were investigated, revealing observed evidence of SIP active across all mixed phase temperatures. However, a key finding of this project is that despite significant progress in predicting SO INPs, the role of INP variability in SO cloud phase, precipitation, and radiative properties remain unknown due to challenges in microphysics parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Characteristics and effects of aerosols during blowing snow events in the central Arctic

Sea salt aerosol (SSaer) significantly impacts aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions, and sublimated blowing snow is hypothesized to be an important SSaer source in polar regions. Understanding blowing snow and other wind-sourced aerosols’ climate relevant properties is needed, especially during winter when Arctic amplification is greatest. However, most of our understanding of blowing snow SSaer comes from modeling studies, and direct observations are sparse. Additionally, SSaer can originate from multiple sources, making it difficult to disentangle emission processes. Here, we present comprehensive observations of wind-sourced aerosol during blowing snow events from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic. High wind speed strongly enhances total aerosol number, submicron sodium chloride mass, cloud condensation nuclei concentrations, and scattering coefficients. Generally, the relative response of aerosol properties to wind speed enhancement is strongest in fall when Arctic aerosol concentrations are lowest. Blowing snow events showed similar aerosol and environmental properties across events, apart from occasions with high snow age (>6 days since last snowfall). Coarse-mode number concentrations (>1 μm) are better explained by variability in wind speed averaged over 12-h air mass back trajectories arriving at the MOSAiC site compared to local, instantaneous wind speed, suggesting the importance of regional transport and consideration of air mass history for wind-driven aerosol production. These MOSAiC observations provide new insights into wind-driven aerosol in the central Arctic and may help validate modeling studies and improve model parameterizations particularly for aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Atmospheric Composition and Radiative Forcing Effects due to UN International Ship Emissions Regulations (ACRUISE) Field Campaign Report

Aerosols, or atmospheric particulates, are long known to be able to seed clouds and modify their characteristics (e.g., cloud brightness, coverage, lifetime). However, the impact of aerosols on clouds is highly complex and non-linear. As a result, aerosol-cloud interaction remains the largest uncertainty in our understanding of the Earth’s radiative balance and in any future climate projections. Aerosols are also a principal component of air pollution and are known to adversely affect respiratory and cardiovascular health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Prescribing the aerosol effective radiative forcing in the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model v1

Aerosol effective radiative forcing critically influences climate projections but remains poorly constrained. Using the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) v1 configuration, we assess the sensitivity of the radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosol changes using a simplified prescribed aerosol scheme (SPA) derived from E3SM v3. Nudged simulations at 3 and 12 km horizontal grid spacings reveal a more negative aerosol forcing than the reference 100 km E3SM v3 whence the SPA properties are derived. The resulting globally averaged aerosol forcing signal is largely due to aerosol–cloud interactions and exhibits little overall resolution sensitivity, while hints of resolution sensitivity appear regionally between the 3 and 12 km runs. While the default SPA scheme overestimates cloud droplet dependence on aerosols, parameterization adjustments in the activation process reconcile forcing estimates with the reference model. Our results demonstrate the ability to use a prescribed aerosol scheme to hold aerosol forcing to a desired strength across resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

An Improved Convection Parameterization with Detailed Aerosol–Cloud Microphysics for a Global Model

Abstract A new microphysical treatment that includes aerosol–cloud interactions and secondary ice production (SIP) mechanisms is implemented in the convection scheme of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6). The approach is to embed a 1D Lagrangian parcel model in the bulk convective plume of the existing deep convection parameterization. Aerosol activation, growth processes including collision/coalescence, and three processes of SIP mechanisms, two of which are normally overlooked in atmospheric models, are represented in this embedded parcel model. These microphysical processes are treated with a hybrid bin/bulk scheme and a high spatial and temporal resolution for the integration of the embedded parcel in 1D, allowing vertical velocity to determine the microphysical evolution following the in-cloud motion during ascent. Simulations of an observed case (Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment) of a mesoscale convective system in Oklahoma, United States, with a single-column model (SCAM) version of CAM, are compared with aircraft in situ and ground-based observations of microphysical properties from the convection and precipitation. Results from the validation show the new microphysical scheme has a good representation of the ice initiation in the bulk convective plume, including the known and empirically quantified pathways of primary and secondary initiation, with benefits for the accuracy of properties of its supercooled cloud liquid. The sensitivity simulations and use of tagging tracers for the validated simulation confirm that the newly included SIP mechanisms are of paramount importance for convective microphysics and can be successfully treated in the global model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Constraining the Aerosol Effects on Deep Convective Clouds by Considering the Coupling Between Clouds and the Planetary Boundary Layer

Several mechanisms have been proposed for the aerosol invigoration effect. Although their principles are well established, their actual magnitudes and roles in cloud development remain uncertain and debatable. This uncertainty partly stems from observational-based studies, in which it has been challenging to separate the co-variability between aerosols and meteorology. Addressing this problem requires large data samples. To this end, this study employs the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement data set expanding to 16 years (some up to 17 years, compared to 10 years in previous work) in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. It also conducts a more careful and rigorous analysis to isolate the influences of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and synoptic patterns to address a previously raised concern. We incorporated a new key process affecting aerosol-cloud interaction: cloud-surface coupling. The state/degree of the coupling relationship turns out to play an important role in the invigoration effect. Our analysis reinforces earlier findings of a robust positive relationship between cloud thickness and aerosol loading across CAPE percentiles—but only under cloud-surface coupled conditions. The increase in cloud thickness with aerosol loading is most pronounced in coupled clouds with high CAPE and bases below 1 km. Coupled clouds with bases below 1 km thicken between 1 and 4 km, depending on the CAPE percentile. Decoupled clouds show no such systematic changes. Synoptic patterns also lead to different strengths of the invigoration effect. Clean and polluted air masses are predominantly associated with northerly and southerly winds, respectively, with a stronger invigoration effect in cleaner air masses.

Geosciences

Surface Observations From Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Sites Constrain the Anthropogenic Contribution to Cloud Droplet Number

Uncertainty in anthropogenic forcing driven by aerosol-cloud interactions (aci) limits our ability to infer the sensitivity of the Earth system to forcing from historical records. The driver of aci is the change in cloud droplet number concentration (N d ) due to changes in aerosol serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Here, we combine a perturbed parameter ensemble run in a global Earth system model with observations of CCN and single-layer-cloud N d at surface sites in the Azores, the Southern Great Plains, and Ascension Island to provide a constraint on the anthropogenic contribution to present-day N d . These observational lines of evidence constrain the preindustrial to present-day change in N d to be between 11 and 43 cm −3 . This is consistent with the upper end of some previous estimates but has a higher minimum perturbation, pointing to a stronger historical aerosol cooling.

ARM

Aircraft in-situ measurements from SOCRATES constrain the anthropogenic perturbations of cloud droplet number

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) in warm clouds alter reflected shortwave radiation by influencing cloud microphysical and macrophysical properties. The variable of state controlling ACI is the cloud droplet number concentration (N d ). Here, we examine the perturbations in N d due to anthropogenic aerosols (ΔN d, PD-PI ) using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the sixth Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6). Surrogate models are created for the CAM6 PPE outputs and are used to generate 1 million model variants of CAM6 by sampling 45 sources of parameter uncertainty. The range of uncertain physical parameters related to ACI are constrained with observations of aerosol and cloud properties from SOCRATES. The likely range of uncertain parameters and the associated range of ΔN d, PD-PI are more strongly constrained with observations of N d relative to observations of cloud condensation nuclei. We conduct sensitivity tests of how constraints on ΔN d, PD-PI are affected by systematic uncertainties in observations and our limitations in our surrogate models created for CAM6 PPE outputs. Based on this, we provide guidance on the impact of reducing systematic uncertainty in airborne microphysical observations and in surrogate models.

Song, Ci [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United St