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At least 73 records · Page 4

VisMetHack2022: Visualizing winds and surface variables from the ECMWF IFS 1-km nature run

This data collection was contributed to the Visualisation Hackathon 2022 (#VisMetHack2022), in conjunction with the Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2022) workshop. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) are pleased to announce access to the data collection from global 1-km nature run (NR) simulations using the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) with explicit convection. We invite you to join us in exploring this precursor to a digital twin of the earth! The NR simulations reveal unprecedented detail of the earth’s atmosphere, and the then outgoing Editor-in-Chief of AGU JAMES commended the project as one of “stunning ambitions,” enabled by computational capacity at scale. The project also won the 2020 HPCwire Readers Choice Award for Best Use of HPC in Physical Sciences. A set of two NR seasonal simulations have been completed, one corresponding to the northern hemispheric winter months (NDJF) and the other for the North Atlantic tropical cyclone season (ASO). The project used the Summit supercomputer at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF). The simulations were facilitated with an INCITE award from the US Department of Energy Office of Science. For the first seasonal run of four months (NDJF), the hydrostatic IFS model was initialized at 00Z on 1 November 2018. The NR for the TC season (AS) was initialized at 00Z on 1 August 2019. The NR simulations were constrained only by sea surface temperatures (SST) at the lower boundary. The IFS output was saved every 3 hours. After feedback and interest from the scientific community, the simulations were rerun for four specific extreme events, with output every 15 minutes. The special cases include a tropical cycle and three severe storm events over the continental USA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advancing uncertainty characterization for understanding projected water scarcity in multi-sector, multi-actor river basins across scales.

Invited Talk at AGU Fall Meeting 2023 Modeling how human institutions and infrastructure interact with the water cycle is essential to better understand the vulnerability, and resilience of water resources systems from the local to the global scale. This is especially true when investigating multi-sector, multi-actor responses to the effects of long-term changes and short-term shocks. It is also well recognized that uncertainty present throughout the modeling cycle (e.g., in data, functional relations, and model coupling approaches) limits our ability to trace the interactive dynamics of human-water systems, as well as to quantify their implications for management and planning. Systems with large numbers of diverse stakeholders further compound this challenge, as uncertain drivers and complex dynamics might have very disparate effects on water users. The work presented is conducted through the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Science Focus Area, which explores how human and natural systems co-evolve in response to change. Through this multi-year effort, we have developed exploratory modeling methods to better characterize how the uncertain human and natural drivers of water scarcity yield consequential vulnerabilities in institutionally complex, multi-sectoral systems. This talk will specifically present on a series of uncertainty characterization experiments performed in the Upper Colorado River Basin, a sub-basin of the Colorado with thousands of water users. These complementary and systematic experiments are aimed at understanding: How are various uncertain stressors (e.g., climate change, demand growth) affecting the diverse water users of this basin in terms of water shortage? What are the key drivers of this shortage for each user? Methods and results from this work are used to address additional questions on the ability of adaptation to modulate the effects of these uncertain drivers, and on their compounding effects across spatial scales and through sectoral interactions.

Hadjimichael, Antonia↗

Scenario storyline discovery for complex multi-actor human-natural systems

This poster was presented at the AGU Fall Meeting 2024. Abstract:Scenario analysis is a useful tool for assessing the impacts of future conditions or alternative strategies. However, the common practice of focusing on a small number of predetermined scenarios can limit our understanding of key uncertainties, and fail to represent diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by simulating a wide range of possible futures and system perspectives. A challenge with these approaches is that they often involve large ensemble experiments which limit interpretability and usability. We recently introduced the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced ``forensic''), a scenario discovery framework that helps users identify scenario storylines that capture key system dynamics and as well as important outcomes. In this poster presentation, we present training materials to support the generalizable application of the framework to other multi-actor systems with complex dynamics. Specifically, we will present a step-by-step methodological typology of tools and methods that can be used to generate and classify plausible states of the world on key metrics and consequential dynamics. The typology will also discuss potential implications of these choices and their applicability to different systems.

Colorado River↗

Tracking-station coordinates from Geos 1 and Geos 2 optical flash data.

Center-of-mass coordinates for 28 NASA MOTS and SAO Baker-Nunn camera sites have been obtained from optical flash data from Geos 1 (1965 89A) and Geos 2 (1968 002A). More than 25,000 observations in about 100 two-day arcs were used in dynamical solutions (SAO 1969 AGU gravity model). Comparison of results with local survey solutions and with solutions from deep-space vehicle tracking suggests accuracy of about 2 meters in longitude and height and 5 meters in latitude. The relatively larger error in latitude arose from propagation of gravity-model error largely along the track of these high-inclination satellites. The results have also been compared with the solutions of the SAO 1969 standard earth for station coordinates on the North American datum. The solution obtained in the present work is much closer to the survey results in chord length between stations.

Marsh, J. G.↗

A magnetohydrodynamic model of the interaction of the solar wind with the Jovian magnetosphere and a magnetohydrodynamic simulation of the interaction of the solar wind with the out flowing plasma from a comet

A three-dimensional code for a rapidly rotating magnetosphere in which the MHD equations and the Maxwell equations were solved by using the two step Lax Endroff scheme, was developed. Preliminary results were presented at the Fall AGU meeting in San Francisco. The basic simulation model to study the solar wind interactions was adapted to other bodies in addition to Jupiter. Because of the recent comet flybys, a comet was chosen as the first model. The aim was to model the formation of the contact surface and the plasma tail. Later, work was begun on a three-dimensional model which would include the effects of mass loading. This model was designed to study the weak cometary bow shocks observed by the probes to comets Halley and Giacobini-Zinner. The model was successful in reproducing the position and shape of the bow shock which was determined by using observations from the Suisei spacecraft.

Walker, R. J.↗

Investigation of plasma instabilities in the polar cusp

During the last six months, considerable progress was made in studying the excitation of electromagnetic waves in the whistler frequency range by an anisotropic or gyrating electron beam. A paper entitled 'Electron Cyclotron Wave Generation by Relativistic Electrons' was published in the Journal of Geophysical Research. Another paper entitled 'Electron Beam Excitation of Upstream Waves in the Whistler Mode Frequency Range' was submitted for publication in Journal of Geophysical Research. This paper is in collaboration with Dr. C. W. Smith at Bartol Research Institute. In this paper, it was shown that an anisotropic electron beam (or gyrating electron beam) is capable of generating both left-hand and right-hand polarized electromagnetic waves in the whistler frequency range. Our earlier paper 'Electromagnetic Components of Auroral Hiss and Lower Hybrid Waves in the Polar Magnetosphere' was accepted for publication in the AGU Chapman Conference on Micro and Meso Scale Phenomena in Space Plasmas. Electromagnetic waves in the lower hybrid and whistler waves regime were identified and a mechanism of how these waves are generated was suggested.

Wong, H. K.↗

Ionospheric plasma outflow in response to transverse ion heating: Self-consistent macroscopic treatment

We examined the various likely processes for creating the cavities and found that the mirror force acting on the transversely heated ions is the most likely mechanism. The pondermotive force causing the wave collapse was found to be a much weaker force than the mirror force on the transversely heated ions observed inside the cavities along with the lower hybrid waves. Using a hydrodynamic model for the polar wind we modeled the cavity formation and found that for the heating rate obtained from the observed waves, the mirror force does create cavities with depletions as observed. Some initial results from this study were published in a recent Geophysical Research Letters and were reported in the Fall AGU meeting in San Francisco. We have continued this investigation using a large-scale semikinetic model.

Singh, N.↗

Towards a theory of tropical/midlatitude mass exchange from the earth's surface through the stratosphere

The main focus of this work is to understand the dynamics of mass exchange between the tropics and the midlatitudes and to determine any links between tropospheric exchange and that in the stratosphere. We have approached this problem from two different perspectives. The first is aimed towards understanding the troposphere's role in inducing lower stratospheric tropical/midlatitude exchange. For this project we focus on observational analysis of the lower stratosphere to assess the key regions of transport in/out of the tropics and to what extent this transport is driven by tropospheric processes. The second approach is to determine the extent to which stratospheric processes influence the troposphere. In this project we are performing potential vorticity (PV) inversions to assess the winds induced near the tropopause when the stratospheric polar vortex is displaced equatorward. These are each discussed in more detail in the subsections below. Also, we have organized a session on Tropical/Midlatitude Interaction and Transport at the Fall AGU where we will be showing our latest results.

Hartley, Dana↗

Investigation of source location determination from Magsat magnetic anomalies: The Euler method approach

The applicability of the Euler method of source location determination was investigated on several model situations pertinent to satellite-data scale situations as well as Magsat data of Europe. Our investigations enabled us to understand the end-member cases for which the Euler method will work with the present satellite magnetic data and also the cases for which the assumptions implicit in the Euler method will not be met by the present satellite magnetic data. These results have been presented in one invited lecture at the Indo-US workshop on Geomagnetism in Studies of the Earth's Interior in August 1994 in Pune, India, and at one presentation at the 21st General Assembly of the IUGG in July 1995 in Boulder, CO. A new method, called Anomaly Attenuation Rate (AAR) Method (based on the Euler method), was developed during this study. This method is scale-independent and is appropriate to locate centroids of semi-compact three dimensional sources of gravity and magnetic anomalies. The method was presented during 1996 Spring AGU meeting and a manuscript describing this method is being prepared for its submission to a high-ranking journal. The grant has resulted in 3 papers and presentations at national and international meetings and one manuscript of a paper (to be submitted shortly to a reputable journal).

Ravat, Dhananjay↗

Modeling of the Coupled Magnetospheric and Neutral Wind Dynamos

Over the past four years of funding, SRI, in collaboration with the University of Texas at Dallas, has been involved in assessing the influence of thermospheric neutral winds on the electric field and current systems at high latitudes. The initial direction of the project was to perform a set of numerical experiments concerning the contribution of the magnetospheric and neutral wind dynamo processes, under specific boundary conditions, to the polarization electric field and/or the field-aligned current distribution at high latitudes. To facilitate these numerical experiments we developed a numerical scheme that relied on using output from the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere General Circulation Model (NCAR-TIGCM), expanding them in the form of spherical harmonics and solving the dynamo equations spectrally. Once initial calculations were completed, it was recognized that the neutral wind contribution could be significant but its actual contribution to the electric field or currents depended strongly on the generator properties of the magnetosphere. Solutions to this problem are not unique because of the unknown characteristics of the magnetospheric generator, therefore the focus was on two limiting cases. One limiting case was to consider the magnetosphere as a voltage generator delivering a fixed voltage to the high-latitude ionosphere and allowing for the neutral wind dynamo to contribute only to the current system. The second limiting case was to consider the magnetosphere as a current generator and allowing for the neutral wind dynamo to contribute only to the generation of polarization electric fields. This work was completed and presented at the l994 Fall AGU meeting. The direction of the project then shifted to applying the Poynting flux concept to the high-latitude ionosphere. This concept was more attractive as it evaluated the influence of neutral winds on the high-latitude electrodynamics without actually having to determine the generator characteristics of the magnetosphere. The influence of the neutral wind was then determined not by estimating how much electric potential or current density it provides, but by determining the contribution of the neutral wind to the net electromagnetic energy transferred between the ionosphere and magnetosphere. The estimate of the net electromagnetic energy transfer and the role of the neutral winds proves to be a more fundamental quantity in studies of magnetosphere- ionosphere coupling also showed that by using electric and magnetic field measurements from the HILAT satellite, the Poynting flux could be a measurable quantity from polar-orbiting, low- altitude spacecraft. Through collaboration with Dr. Heelis and others at UTD and their expertise of the electric field measurements on the DE-B satellite, an extensive analysis was planned to determine the Poynting flux from the DE-B measurements in combination with a modeling effort to help interpret the observations taking into account the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere.

Thayer, Jeffrey P.↗

Physics of Boundaries and their Interactions in Space Plasmas

This report describes the work done by SciberNet, Inc. during the month of August. We have resolved the issues associated with the implementation of the dipole field in our large scale hybrid simulations of the magnetopause. We have setup several runs and will spend the next several months analyzing the data. The results will be presented at the Fall AGU. We are also continuing our analysis of the 3-D simulations of thin current sheets at the magnetopause, paying special attention to the conditions under which Kelvin-Helmholtz would lead to sizable perturbations of the magnetopause. In a related study, we are in the process of developing a new kinetic linear code that would for the first time enable us to examine the linear properties of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability in the fully kinetic regime. Finally, we are continuing our code development to include inflow-outflow boundary conditions in our 2-D and 3-D hybrid codes. We are also comparing the different methods of code parallelization in order to extend the limits of our calculations.

Omidi, Nojan↗

Plasma Density and Radio Echoes in the Magnetosphere

This project provided a opportunity to study a variety of interesting topics related to radio sounding in the magnetosphere. The results of this study are reported in two papers which have been submitted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research and Radio Science, and various aspects of this study were also reported at meetings of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) at Baltimore, Maryland and the International Scientific Radio Union (URSI) at Boulder, Colorado. The major results of this study were also summarized during a one-day symposium on this topic sponsored by Marshall Space Flight Center in December 1994. The purpose of the study was to examine the density structure of the plasmasphere and determine the relevant mechanisms for producing radio echoes which can be detected by a radio sounder in the magnetosphere. Under this study we have examined density irregularities, biteouts, and outliers of the plasmasphere, studied focusing, specular reflection, ducting, and scattering by the density structures expected to occur in the magnetosphere, and predicted the echoes which can be detected by a magnetospheric radio sounder.

Calvert, W.↗

Characterization of Ionospheric Flow Patterns During Times of Unusual Auroral Activity Using DE and DMSP Data

This final report describes the work done by Dr. Marc Hairston and Dr. Rod Heelis on NASA SR&T grant NAGW-4411 studying the theta aurora using DE-1 ultraviolet imager data and DMSP particle data. This report covers the period from summer 1995 through summer 1996 along with a review of the previous work. Previous work on this grant looked at the time period from the launch of DMSP-F8 in June 1987 through the end of mission of DE-1 in summer 1991. Despite the sporadic and decreasing frequency of observations from DE-1 over this time period, we were able to identify six events for study where the DE-1 imager observed a theta aurora occurring during a period in which the DMSP-F8 satellite flew through the region of the aurora at an altitude of 800 km. We focused on the best two events where the theta aurora persisted for an extended period so that we could observe the DMSP particle signatures in both the hemisphere observed by DE-1 and in the other polar hemisphere immediately before or afterwards. These results were presented at the Fall 1994 meeting of the AGU. Initially we had hoped to expand on this work. However, further work showed that none of these events gave a clear enough signature in the DMSP data for us to identify a theta aurora in the hemisphere opposite to the hemisphere imaged by DE-1. Without that, there were no results from this work that were new enough to warrant publication. So instead we used the final year of the grant to work with our colleague, J. A. Cumnock on a similar project using DE data to study the evolution of theta auroras as a function of the IMF A paper from that work was published which acknowledged this grant and a copy of that paper is included with this final report.

Hairston, Marc↗

Penetration Electric Fields and Inner Magnetosphere Dynamics: A Model and Data Comparison

Significant progress has been made on the analysis of the June, 1991 storm. We have completed the analysis of the CRRES and DMSP data sets. We have been able to follow the evolution during the storm of the inner edge of the electric field patterns in the dusk sector and its relation to electron boundaries, ion boundaries and the ring current. Whereas the CRRES data provide radial cuts out through the plasmasphere every I 0 hours, DMSP provides snapshots every orbit of the potential and particle boundaries. Electric field and energetic particle measurements from CRRES and ion drifts and energetic particle measurements from DMSP provide the principal data sets. The combined data set provides high resolution definition of the boundary motions over the phases of the storm. L shell differences between the DMSP and CRRES particle boundaries are easily explained by inflation of the dusk sector by the ring current. The electric field boundaries are typically associated with the ion boundary and the inner edge of the ring current except during rapid increases in the cross-polar cap potential. A significant fraction of the dusk cell potential is found inside the plasmasheet electron inner edge. Twice during the storm this potential exceeded 60 kV. A paper (copy attached) has been prepared (Burke et al., 1998) and submitted to JGR. An invited paper will be presented by Burke at the spring AGU meeting. An abstract has also been submitted to the COSPAR meeting for presentation by Maynard. New simulations have been carried out with the Rice Convection Model for the magnetic storm of June 4-5, 1991, and comparisons have been made with CRRES and DMSP data.

Maynard, Nelson C.↗

Physics of Boundaries and Their Interactions in Space Plasmas

This report describes the work done by SciberNet, Inc. during the month of January. During this time, we primarily worked on further analysis of the results presented at the AGU as well as writing them up for publication. Using large scale simulations, we showed that the magnetopause during the southward IMF case is quite irregular with varying thickness, and has a complex flow pattern owing to the nonlinear effects of the convective flow superimposed on the flows generated in the reconnection layer. We used inflow-outflow boundary conditions to examine the kinetic nature of the discontinuities that are formed in the reconnection layer and concluded that nonlocal effects play a major role in the formation of such discontinuities and can alter their properties from the usual structures expected from 1-D simulations or from fluid theories. Finally, we used our 3-D simulations to examine the nonlinear interaction of the tearing mode with the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability. We showed that this interaction leads to the generation of a large core field which is observed both in the magnetotail as well as the magnetopause.

Omidi, Nojan↗

Design Study for a Global Magnetospheric Dynamics Mission

A successful design was developed, one with many advantages over the original mission. The time spent in orbit was more evenly spread over the region being investigated. The radiation close was significantly lower and the mission did not rely on gravity assist at the moon and thus did not have to make measurements that far out in the tail. A spacecraft design was developed that keeps interference from the engines to a minimum. The design however was quite specific for four spacecraft. It could not be easily scaled to five spacecraft for example. One problem was discovered that is a concern for all similar missions. Inter- spacecraft communication can determine the spacing of the vehicles easily and to the accuracy required. However, the orientation of the polyhedron with the spacecraft at its vertices is not well known for small separations. Ground station range measurements give the line of sight location well but not the angle around that vector. This is a problem any such mission needs to solve. Neither the navigation teams at Goddard nor at Lewis were willing to attempt to solve this problem. At the completion of the study a report was made to the AGU meeting in San Francisco and a paper published in the volume "Science Closure and Enabling Technologies for Constellation Class Missions". This paper is attached.

Russell, C. T.↗

Polar Cap Plasma and Convection

This presentation will describe the character of the polar cap plasma in 10% AGU Spring 1998 particular the convection velocities at the perigee (about 1.8 Re) and apogee( about 8.9 Re) of Polar in relationship to Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) and solar wind parameters. This plasma is thought to be due to several sources; the polar wind, cleft ion fountain, and auroral outflow. The plasma in the polar cap tends to be mostly field-aligned. At any given point in the polar cap, this plasma could be from a different regions since convection of magnetic field lines can transport this material. it is quite difficult to study such a phenomena with single point measurements. Current knowledge of the polar cap plasma obtained by in situ measurements will be presented along with recent results from the Polar mission. This study also examines the direct electrical coupling between the magnetosphere and ionosphere by comparing convection velocities measured by the Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiment (TIDE) and Magnetic Field Experiment (MFE) instruments in magnetosphere and measurements of the ionosphere by ground-based radars. At times such a comparison is difficult because the Polar satellite at apogee spends a large amount of time in the polar cap which is a region that is not coverage well by the current SuperDam coherent radars. This is impart due to the lack of irregularities that returns the radar signal.

Elliott, Heather A.↗