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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Creating Benchmark Data for Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Space Biology Research

To identify an appropriate AI/ML approach for a specific problem, the best practice is to measure algorithm performance through the benchmarking process. A scientific benchmark consists of an AI-ready dataset and a reference implementation on a specific scientific question. The NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) has started the “Benchmark Initiative for AI/ML to create scientific benchmark datasets in three applications: 1) scientific benchmarking, which finds the best algorithm for a specific problem; 2) application benchmarking, which measures algorithm performance against a set of parameters; and 3) system benchmarking, which evaluates performance of hardware and software architecture. Currently, there are no standardized datasets available to benchmark AI/ML algorithms in the domain of space biology. In this work, we constructed two AI/ML-ready biological datasets from experiments in space-flown mice: cellular imaging and RNA-seq. First, radiation-exposed immune cells harbor DNA damage foci that can be fluorescently marked to visualize the amount of damage following exposure to ionizing radiation. However, such large datasets are difficult to analyze visually, due to imaging inconsistencies and human bias, and classical image processing approaches can fail on imaging artifacts. AI/ML are therefore exciting alternative, providing the speed of machines and the accuracy of humans. We have made this dataset available at https://registry.opendata.aws/bps_microscopy/. Second, high-throughput nucleic acid sequencing (DNA-seq, RNA-seq) has become widespread in biomedical research due to the growing availability and affordability of these assays. However, most sequencing datasets suffer from high dimensionality and low sample count. In this work, we used a generative adversarial network to synthesize a standardized, AI-ready, publicly available benchmark dataset for space biology RNA-seq data with sufficient space-flown and ground control mouse liver samples from NASA GeneLab. This dataset is available at https://registry.opendata.aws/bps_rnaseq/. These datasets are now fully open the Space Biology community to test their favorite AI/ML approaches.

James Casaletto↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Machine Learning Showroom: Presentation to OCIO Data Science Summit

Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) has become an indispensable tool for descriptive, predictive and prescriptive analytics. Demand for AI/ML models at NASA is outpacing Data Scientist staff. The AI/ML Showroom is an effort to empower NASA professionals to evaluate AI/ML solutions for their problems in a scalable self-help manner, relying on coding examples, reference use cases, digital assistant guides, jam sessions, video training, and pre-configured cloud resources.

machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2025

From sequence to protein structure and conformational dynamics with artificial intelligence/machine learning

The 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded in part for de novo protein structure prediction using AlphaFold2, an artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) model trained on vast amounts of sequence and three-dimensional structure data. AlphaFold2 and related models, including RoseTTAFold and ESMFold, employ specialized neural network architectures driven by attention mechanisms to infer relationships between sequence and structure. At a fundamental level, these AI/ML models operate on the long-standing hypothesis that the structure of a protein is determined by its amino acid sequence. More recently, AlphaFold2 has been adapted for the prediction of multiple protein conformations by subsampling multiple sequence alignments. Herein, we provide an overview of the deterministic relationship between sequence and structure, which was hypothesized over half a century ago with profound implications for the biological sciences ever since. We postulate that protein conformational dynamics are also determined, at least in part, by amino acid sequence and that this relationship may be leveraged for construction of AI/ML models dedicated to predicting protein conformational ensembles. Accordingly, we describe a conceptual model architecture, which may be trained on sequence data in combination with conformationally sensitive structural information, coming primarily from nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Notwithstanding certain limitations in this context, NMR offers abundant structural heterogeneity conducive to conformational ensemble prediction. As NMR and other data continue to accumulate, sequence-informed prediction of protein structural dynamics with AI/ML has the potential to emerge as a transformative capability across the biological sciences.

Artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2026

Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Safeguards; Evaluating Safeguards and Security Risks and Benefits for Advanced and Small Modular Reactor Deployments

Rapidly growing interest in advanced and small modular reactor (A/SMR) technologies presents challenges as well as opportunities for implementing international safeguards and security. A/SMR deployments are expected to be more numerous, more geographically dispersed, and more varied in their designs, placing new demands on the data systems and analytical tools used to support oversight (Alberti et al., 2023; Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission et al., 2024). Because of this variability, the importance and reliance on data systems for A/SMR deployments is expected to be higher than for previous reactor generations. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) offer potential capabilities to address the high variability inherent in A/SMR technology. The beneficiaries of AI-assisted tools include facility operators, government regulators, IAEA inspectors, and A/SMR vendors. This report analyzes how AI/ML-assisted technologies can strengthen the implementation of IAEA safeguards and security measures. It also identifies AI-assisted tools to strengthen operator, facility, and regulator knowledge management practices and examines the potential risks AI/ML-based tools may introduce to IAEA safeguards and security efforts. It concludes with a set of hypothetical, standards-style requirements for AI/ML systems used in safeguards contexts, grounded in an inspector-centric view of system verification. Despite the potential benefits of AI/ML systems, understanding potential intentional and unintentional failure modes is critical for ensuring adequate protection of nuclear materials and facilities. Unique features of A/SMRs including sealed cores, remote and novel paradigms of operation, off-site reactor fabrication, novel fuel forms, and varied refueling requirements, introduce challenges for traditional safeguards technological approaches (Pensado et al., 2024; Federation of American Scientists, 2025). AI/ML systems deployed to address these challenges may introduce new risks requiring systematic evaluation rooted in both AI-specific risk frameworks, such as the NIST AI Risk Management Framework (NIST AI RMF), and established cyber risk management standards such as NIST SP 800-30 (National Institute of Standards and Technology [NIST], 2023; NIST, 2012).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transforming Science Prioritization Processes Using Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) have potential to augment significantly the current labor-intensive processes of science prioritization, specifically by the National Academies’ Decadal Survey on behalf of NASA and NSF. Here we summarize what we believe to be the first exploratory demonstration-of-concept results from an application of AI/ML to Survey science prioritization. Specifically, we applied Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) to reveal trends in published astrophysics research that may indicate science priorities and which could be applied to strategic planning. For the purpose of the work that we summarize here, AI/ML is able to analyze – that is, to “understand,” in a manner of speaking – a vast amount of text to reveal complex relationships among research topics, including the growth or decline of science community activities in those topics over time. We trained ourselves and AI/ML algorithms by using ~400,000 abstracts in the period 1998 to 2010 to “forecast” the Academies’ Astro2010 recommendations and compare with the solicited white papers. Comparing our results with actual Astro2010 recommendations allowed us to identify candidate metrics that better predicted the actual results of the Survey. We found, for example, that Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of papers published in a topic area is a good proxy measure for importance of this topic area of research. With this training complete, we identified candidate astrophysics astrophysics science priorities for the 2021+ period using the research during 2007 - 2019 . We conclude that appropriate application of AI can potentially significantly reduce the current workload of the Decadal Survey processes and reveal otherwise unrecognized characteristics in the body of astronomical research. We emphasize throughout the exploratory nature of our work, encouraging colleagues to pursue promising results further. Our most critical governing assumption was that increased (or decreased) research activity can be used to identify scientific or technology topic areas worthy of increased (or decreased) future emphasis. We discuss advantages, limitations, and recognize the “black box” nature of our technique. We note ethics issues associated, for example, with using AI/ML to reveal “hidden” meanings and biases in published work. Furthermore, inevitable improvements in AI may soon enable widespread and welcome identification of and advocacy for science and technology priorities by disparate and diverse groups and organizations. Consequently, we continue to urge a near-term, in-depth evaluation of appropriate applications of AI, including implications and consequences, as well as support for multiple follow-on assessments, of which ours is only a beginning.

Artificial Intelligence↗

NASA NTRS2024

Celebrating 10 Years of the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project and Looking to the Future

The conference clearly demonstrated the increasing interest and growth of the scientific community working on the development and application of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction since the start of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)/World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project in 2013. The conference, which was held at the University of Reading (United Kingdom), was organized into three main themes as briefly summarized below, with eleven invited talks, 74 oral contributed talks, and 101 posters. The conference also included a two-hour breakout session, wherein eight groups discussed the current state and prospect for S2S prediction, and an early career researcher event. A summary of these discussions and recommendations is presented below. The conference web page (https://research.reading.ac.uk/s2s-summit2023/) is archived at the University of Reading. Introductory comments by representatives of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WWRP and WCRP emphasized the importance of the weather–climate linkage, targeted by S2S forecasts (from 2 weeks to a season ahead), addressing the challenges of creating “end-to-end” forecasts that encompass the entire climate-services chain from the prediction science and forecast, to the development and issuing of forecast products tailored to informing user-decisions. They also emphasized the efficacy of multi-model ensemble efforts and databases to foster collaborations internationally and between operational centres and academia. Although the WWRP/WCRP S2S project comes to an end in 2023, S2S prediction will remain an important focus for WWRP and WCRP. In WWRP, a new project called SAGE (Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions for Agriculture and Environment) will start in 2024. Another important legacy of the S2S project will be the maintenance of the S2S database (Vitart et al. 2017) and the establishment of a WMO Lead Center for sub-seasonal prediction multi-model ensemble (LC-SSPMME) which will provide real-time multi-model S2S climate information. In two keynote presentations, Prof. Brian Hoskins (University of Reading) and Dr. Gilbert Brunet (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) discussed the potential of S2S predictability and the ongoing journey for understanding and improving these predictions. This conference was a sequel to the International Conference on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (Robertson et al., 2014) which took place in College Park (Maryland, USA) in February 2014 to celebrate the start of the WWRP/WCRP S2S project, and to WCRP and WWRP conferences in Boulder, USA, in 2018 (Merryfield et al., 2020). A significant development compared to the previous S2S conferences was the large number of presentations on research to operation (R2O) and S2S applications and on the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) methods for S2S prediction. Some of these methods provide empirical S2S forecasts which are competitive with state-of-the-art dynamical models. Other presentations demonstrated that AI/ML can provide alternative calibration of dynamical model outputs to traditional methods. Several talks and posters highlighted the increasing use of AI/ML, including deep learning, in S2S forecast post-processing and using AI to identify higher flow-dependent skill. Finally, some presentations demonstrated the value of AI/ML methods for a better understanding of S2S sources of predictability and attribution of extreme events.

S. J. Woolnough↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge, reduce risk, and support safe, productive human space missions. Through the powerful emerging approaches of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in biomedical science and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth independence and autonomy of mission operations. Here we present an overview of AI/ML architecture to support deep space mission goals, developed with leaders in the field. First, we focus on the fundamental biological research that supports our understanding of physiological responses to spaceflight, and we describe current efforts to support AI/ML research including data standardization and data engineering through maximally open and FAIR (findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable) databases and the generation of AI-ready datasets for reuse and analysis. We also discuss remote data management frameworks for research data as well as environmental and health data that are generated during deep space missions. We highlight several research projects that leverage data standardization and management for fundamental biological discovery to uncover the complex effects of space travel on living systems. Next, we provide an overview of cutting-edge AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support remote monitoring and analysis during deep space missions, including generative models and large language models to learn the underlying biomedical patterns and predict outcomes or answer questions during off world medical scenarios. We also describe current AI/ML methods to support this research and monitoring through automated cloud-based labs which enable limited human intervention and closed-loop experimentation in remote settings. These labs could support mission autonomy by analyzing environmental data streams, and would be facilitated through in situ analytics capabilities to avoid sending large raw data files through low bandwidth communications. Finally, in the context of deep space missions with limited communications or access to medical advice from Earth, we describe a solution for integrated, real-time mission biomonitoring across hierarchical levels from continuous environmental monitoring, to wearables and point-of-care devices, to molecular and physiological monitoring. We introduce a precision space health system that will ensure that the future of space health is predictive, preventative, participatory and personalized.

artificial intelligence↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Novel Framework for Multi-Path Data Fusion in Earth Observation and New Observing Strategies: Applications to Predicting Forest Canopy Height

Exponential growth of data from Earth Observation (EO) assets has necessitated the development of sophisticated methods for data interpretation and management. NASA’s New Observing Strategy (NOS) approach aims to coordinate operations among complex heterogenous systems of constellations, requiring advanced Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) techniques. Despite significant advancements in AI/ML across various domains, the EO and machine learning for satellite (SatML) fields remain fragmented, often relying on adapted techniques rather than domain-specific solutions. We present a novel end-to-end data fusion framework tailored specifically for EO and SatML, addressing this gap by facilitating rapid development of AI/ML applications. This framework, called, Multimodal Earth Observation Workflow for Machine Learning (MEOW-ML), sup- ports the entire AI/ML lifecycle, from dataset manipulation, to model training, evaluation, and logging, and is designed to expedite the development of next-generation NOS deployments and SOTA in EO. We apply our framework to predict canopy height model (CHM) derived from lidar data. We integrate multiple data modalities through a hierarchical, multi-path model architecture, effectively identifying and leveraging the unique strengths of each data source to enhance predictive accuracy. Our experiments demonstrate that the multi-path architecture outperforms traditional single-path models and provides significant advantages in both accuracy and computational efficiency.

Mark Moussa↗

DOE OSTI2024

AI for Nuclear Safeguards Verification

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) utilizes AI/ML to analyze open-source information, including satellite imagery and scientific publications, to verify the completeness of State declarations regarding nuclear activities. AI/ML already assist the IAEA with automating processes and analysis of large datasets, including satellite imagery and unstructured data, improving efficiency and effectiveness of safeguards implementation. AI/ML in nuclear safeguards come with its own challenges that include the need for large, unbiased datasets, the risk of AI-generated fake information, including the potential for manipulation of satellite imagery.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

AI-Ready Control System for the Fermilab Accelerator Complex

Reliable, high-intensity operation of the Fermilab Accelerator Complex is critical to the success of the Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility and Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment. We describe the requirements and infrastructure necessary to support routine use of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) in the accelerator control system. Three capabilities are identified: a machine learning operations (MLOps) framework standardizing the lifecycle of AI/ML automation from data management through deployment and monitoring; a data quality framework defining and enforcing standards required to build trustworthy AI/ML applications; and workflow integration with large language models to assist physicists, engineers, and operators with information retrieval, code development, and routine analysis. Use cases spanning beam diagnostics, beam control, and support system automation illustrate the technical requirements across the complex.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NASA NTRS2022

TechEdSat-13: The First Flight of a Neuromorphic Processor

Neuromorphic processors, inspired by the wiring of the brain, permit certain classes of Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) algorithms to run far more efficiently. Ultimately, such systems will make the small- and nano-satellite platforms even more useful in terms of greatly improved power, communication and internal data management. In addition, on-board processing of images and data will help to not only rapidly interpret the information, but also reduce the amount of data that needs to be transmitted to ground stations. This initial flight experiment uses the Intel/Loihi processor combined with a custom interface board and three communication channels to run the AI/ML scripts. These will vary with increasing length and complexity during the course of the mission. The algorithms will use the (at first) limited sensor data to ‘learn’ - with comparisons to similar architecture in comparable ground experiments. Some of the applications for successor flights in the TES-n flight series include Cognitive Communications, whereby the overall communication system is optimized per overflight – by optimizing timing and data transmission functions. Lastly, the performance of the Loihi 14nm process technology will be monitored for performance in the LEO radiation environment, thus looking for induced hardware and software errors. This information will help guide future radiation protection techniques to extend the lifetime and overall utility. The TES-13 is a 3U nanosat successfully launched by the Virgin Orbit Launcher-1 on January 13, 2022, and will presage more flights and AI/ML applications to come.

TechEdSat↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Space Flown Rodent Liver RNA Sequencing Data for Machine Learning in Space Biology Research

High-throughput nucleic acid sequencing (DNA-seq, RNA-seq) has become widespread in biomedical research due to the growing availability and affordability of these assays. Data analysis has been accelerated in recent years by the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques by biomedical researchers. In space biology research, RNAseq datasets from space-flown experimental samples are critical for characterizing the gene expression aberrations associated with exposure to spaceflight stressors. However, space biological experiments tend to be very low sample size, so identifying proper AI/ML algorithms for sequencing data analysis is an ongoing challenge since these algorithms typically require large sample size. The NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) has started the “Benchmark Initiative for AI/ML”, focused on creating datasets meant for three main applications: 1) scientific benchmarking, which finds the best algorithm for a specific problem; 2) application benchmarking, which measures algorithm performance against a set of parameters; and 3) system benchmarking, which evaluates performance of hardware and software architecture. These scientific benchmarks consist of an AI-ready dataset and a reference implementation on a specific scientific question. In this work, we focused on generating standardized datasets to allow the scientific community to benchmark AI/ML algorithms in the domain of space biology. We present here a standardized, AI-ready, publicly available benchmark dataset for space biology RNA-seq data as a collaboration between the NASA AI4LS (Artificial Intelligence for Life Sciences) working group. and NASA’s SMD. This dataset consists of space-flown and ground control mouse liver found in the NASA GeneLab omics database. However, to amplify the small sample number (n=112 samples) for ML purposes, we employ Gaussian noise and a generative adversarial network to extend this dataset to 6,000 synthetic samples, matching the original gene expression characteristics.

James Casaletto↗

NASA NTRS2023

EVA Task and 3D Pose Recognition from Video

Extravehicular Activity (EVA) has been known to involve potential risks of biomechanical stresses and injuries to crewmembers. Gathering of EVA motion patterns is necessary for risk analysis and mitigation. However, many existing techniques, such as motion capture systems, are not only cost-prohibitive but are impractical for retrospective analysis of past missions. In this work, a software tool was developed, which can estimate the 3D poses of a spacesuit from photographs or videos, without using special sensors or equipment. The tool is based on the state-of-the-art artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) system, which was trained by studying and capturing motion patterns of past and current spacesuit test data. The AI/ML tool was further enhanced using synthetically generated data, in which the suit postures, backgrounds, camera angles and illumination conditions were parametrically adjusted and rendered for training. The tool, incorporated the methodologies of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), was trained, and tested in the cloud computing environment. The trained model was then applied on new imagery and video to extract estimated joint positions and suit outlines. The joint positions were further processed to capture activity (“digging”), pose labels (“bending”), and other useful downstream information. The model performance on new imagery and video was successfully assessed for accuracy and reliability. This AI/ML based posture recognition tool thus allows for the quantification of injury risk and task performance characterization for both current and past missions and training, which can immensely help to improve EVA task and suit design.

Kyung Han Kim↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge, reduce risk, and support safe, productive human space missions. Through the powerful emerging computer science approaches of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in biomedical science and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth-independence and autonomy of mission operations. We present a decadal view of AI/ML architecture to support deep space mission goals, developed in concert with leaders in the field. We describe current AI/ML methods to support 1) fundamental biology, 2) in situ analytics, 3) high performance computing hardware, 4) automated science, 5) self-driving labs, 6) remote data management, 7) integrated real-time mission biomonitoring, and 8) a Precision Space Health system. Cutting-edge AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support these domains include active learning, explainable AI, adaptive learning, causal inference, knowledge graphs, federated learning, transfer learning, and large language models. Finally, we present results from several current ML projects that are underway in the field to address key challenges of small sample n, high feature count, heterogeneity, and sparse data. These include 1) connecting omics data to phenotypic data using an ensemble model to infer causality of spaceflight rodent liver health disruption, 2) usage of explainable ML to interrogate the muscular underpinnings of spaceflight muscle atrophy, 3) ML models analyzing and determining directed acyclic graphs of human space health risk leveraging rodent bone datasets, 4) usage of large pre-trained models connecting biomedical knowledgebases with small spaceflight datasets to understand gene-to-gene interaction networks, and 5) a suite of benchmarked open science datasets (spaceflight mouse liver; radiation DNA damage) enabling programmers to identify the best ML algorithms to answer space biological science questions.

space biology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge, reduce risk, and support safe, productive human space missions. Through the powerful emerging computer science approaches of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in biomedical science and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth-independence and autonomy of mission operations. We present a decadal view of AI/ML architecture to support deep space mission goals, developed in concert with leaders in the field. We describe current AI/ML methods to support 1) fundamental biology, 2) in situ analytics, 3) high performance computing hardware, 4) automated science, 5) self-driving labs, 6) remote data management, 7) integrated real-time mission biomonitoring, and 8) a Precision Space Health system. Cutting-edge AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support these domains include active learning, explainable AI, adaptive learning, causal inference, knowledge graphs, federated learning, transfer learning, and large language models. Finally, we present results from several current ML projects that are underway in the field to address key challenges of small sample n, high feature count, heterogeneity, and sparse data. These include 1) connecting omics data to phenotypic data using an ensemble model to infer causality of spaceflight rodent liver health disruption, 2) usage of explainable ML to interrogate the muscular underpinnings of spaceflight muscle atrophy, 3) ML models analyzing and determining directed acyclic graphs of human space health risk leveraging rodent bone datasets, 4) usage of large pre-trained models connecting biomedical knowledgebases with small spaceflight datasets to understand gene-to-gene interaction networks, and 5) a suite of benchmarked open science datasets (spaceflight mouse liver; radiation DNA damage) enabling programmers to identify the best ML algorithms to answer space biological science questions.

space biology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ensuring Safe, Effective, and Reliable Use of Artificial Intelligence-Based Applications for Nuclear Electricity Generation through a Systems Approach

There is a significant potential to reduce operating and maintenance cost at nuclear power plants using artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML). For instance, AI/ML has the potential to significant improve work management processes, condition reporting, and plant surveillance activities. However, the nuclear industry has been slow in adopting AI/ML due to several multifaceted barriers discussed in this paper. This work presents such multidisciplinary approach intended to 1) accelerate industry adoption of AI/ML-based applications at nuclear power plants and 2) ensure their safe, reliable, and effective use. This approach is discussed further in this work and will be used to address overarching challenges associated with AI deployment at scale to provide industry guidance that support accelerated adoption of AI/ML technologies throughout the industry.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Flexible AI Models for Grid Resilience

The rapid growth in size and complexity of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models has led to increased energy demands, posing a threat to the reliability of the existing power grid. This project addresses the challenge of highly intermittent and energy-intensive inference workloads by (1) developing fidelity-adaptive neural networks capable of dynamic response to grid conditions and (2) integrating these networks with power flow simulations to assess their impact on power grid reliability. We will explore both top-down and bottom-up approaches to create hierarchies of submodels that provide a controlled trade-off between power draw and prediction accuracy. The top-down method utilizes NN pruning to reduce a flagship model into progressively smaller, energy-efficient variants. The bottom-up approach employs geometrically principled weight setting strategies to construct depth-efficient models from the ground up. A real-time hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform will be developed to simulate a scaled AC power grid, integrating live AI workload power draw and enabling dynamic model switching in response to grid feedback. This work will provide a novel framework for evaluating the impact of flexible AI/ML workloads on grid performance and establish new methodologies for energy-aware computing in data centers. The outcomes will demonstrate that adaptive AI/ML can play a critical role in improving grid stability while advancing NREL's leadership in energy-efficient computing research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

AI/ML-Enhanced Wind Forecasts for Reducing Uncertainty in Prescribed Fire Planning

Prescribed fire is a vital tool for ecosystem management and wildfire risk reduction but its escalation is constrained by overly conservative burn windows because of uncertainties, for instance, in wind forecasts. This review describes the state of the art in weather product use by fire/smoke models and identifies three priority research gaps that artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) is well positioned to address: (1) spatial and temporal downscaling to meter-scale, sub-hourly wind fields; (2) bias correction for systematic model errors in complex terrain; and (3) robust uncertainty quantification to inform ensemble-based simulations. Emerging AI/ML techniques offer promising frameworks to address all three challenges. By providing high-resolution, bias-corrected, and probabilistic wind fields, AI/ML-enhanced forecasts will allow for expanded burn windows, improved ignition strategy design and a reduced reliance on expert intuition, especially when a prescribed fire is introduced into new areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗