Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “AMPLIFICATION FACTOR”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Mitigation of deceleration-phase Rayleigh–Taylor instability growth in inertial confinement fusion implosions

Rayleigh–Taylor growth during shell deceleration is one of the main limiting factors for target performance in inertial confinement fusion implosions. Here, using analytical scaling laws and hydrodynamic simulations, we show that such amplification can be mitigated by reducing the initial mass density in the central target region. The perturbation growth reduction is caused by a smaller hot-spot convergence ratio during deceleration, increased density scale length, and enhanced ablation stabilization. The required central density reduction can be achieved using the dynamic shell formation concept.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Towards Operational Scalability for H⁻ Laser Assisted Charge Exchange

The experimental development of H⁻ laser assisted charge exchange, a.k.a. laser stripping, has been ongoing at the SNS accelerator since 2006 in a three-phase approach. The first two phases associated with proof-of-principle and proof-of-practicality experiments have been successfully completed and demonstrated >95% H⁻ stripping efficiency for up to 10 us. The final phase is a proof-of-scalability stage to demonstrate that the method can be deployed for realistic beam duty factors. The experimental component of this effort is centered on achieving high efficiency stripping through the use of a laser power amplification scheme to recycle the macropulse laser light at the interaction point of the H⁻ stripping. Such a recycling cavity will be necessary for any future operational laser stripping system with at least millisecond duration H⁻ pulses. A second component of the proof-of-scalability phase is to develop a conceptual design for a realistic laser stripping scheme. The status of these efforts and challenges associated with deploying the recycling cavity into the laser stripping experiment will be described in this talk.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advances and Challenges in Fluorescence in situ Hybridization for Visualizing Fungal Endobacteria

We report that Several bacteria have long been known to interact intimately with fungi, but molecular approaches have only recently uncovered how cosmopolitan these interactions are in nature. Currently, bacterial–fungal interactions (BFI) are inferred based on patterns of co-occurrence in amplicon sequencing investigations. However, determining the nature of these interactions, whether the bacteria are internally or externally associated, remains a grand challenge in BFI research. Fluorescence in situhybridization (FISH) is a robust method that targets unique sequences of interest which can be employed for visualizing intra-hyphal targets, such as mitochondrial organelles or, as in this study, bacteria. We evaluate the challenges and employable strategies to resolve intra-hyphal BFI to address pertinent criteria in BFI research, such as culturing media, spatial distribution of bacteria, and abundance of bacterial 16S rRNA copies for fluorescent labeling. While these experimental factors influence labeling and detection of endobacteria, we demonstrate how to overcome these challenges thorough permeabilization, appropriate media choice, and targeted amplification using hybridization chain reaction FISH. Such microscopy imaging approaches can now be utilized by the broader research community to complement sequence-based investigations and provide more conclusive evidence on the nature of specific bacterial–fungal relationships.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

DenKv: Addressing Design Trade-offs of Key-value Stores for Scientific Applications

High-performance computing (HPC) facilities have employed flash-based storage tier near to compute nodes to absorb high I/O demand by HPC applications during periodic system-level checkpoints. To accelerate these checkpoints, proxy-based distributed key-value stores (PD-KVS) gained particular attention for their flexibility to support multiple backends and different network configurations. PD-KVS rely internally on monolithic KVS, such as LevelDB or RocksDB, to exploit the KV interface and query support. However, PD-KVS are unaware of the high redundancy factor in checkpoint data, which can be up to GBs to TBs, and therefore, tend to generate high write and space amplification on these storage layers. In this paper, we propose DenKv which is deduplication-extended node-local LSM-tree-based KVS. DenKv employs asynchronous partially inline dedup (APID) and aims to maintain the performance characteristics of LSM-tree-based KVS while reducing the write and space amplification problems. We implemented DenKv atop BlobDB and showed that our proposed solution maintains performance while reducing write amplification up to 2× and space amplification by 4× on average.

Khan, Awais↗
DOE OSTI2026

Laser–plasma amplification of an ultrabroadband laser pulse to 0.3 TW

Producing on-target laser intensities much greater than 10 23 W cm −2 with current laser technologies is a roadblock to accessing new regimes of physics such as strong-field quantum electrodynamics. Laser–plasma amplifiers show promise to realize these intensities by augmenting the final amplifier and compressor in traditional chirped-pulse-amplification architectures with a plasma-based amplification and compression stage that operates at a much higher damage threshold. Here we demonstrate amplification of an ultrabroadband (>60 nm) pulse in a laser–plasma Raman amplifier. We directly amplified seed intensities up to 3.7 × 10 15 W cm −2 and measured efficiencies up to 8.7%. Single-shot SPIDER measurements show a factor-of-2 reduction in the amplified pulse duration with final powers up to 0.3 TW, a 10× improvement over previous results. Final pulse durations of 64 fs are measured. Energy transfers greater than 220 mJ from the picosecond pump into the seed result in a 30× energy amplification of a 7.6 mJ seed. These results set the stage for a compact plasma afterburner based on Raman amplification that could extend the scientific capability of existing petawatt-class laser facilities to enable experiments at the intensity frontier.

Shaw, J. L. [Univ. of Rochester, NY (United States↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recent Advancements and Prospects of Chemical Heat Pumps for Temperature Amplification for Nuclear Process Heat Applications

The energy economy is continually evolving, particularly in terms of primary energy sources, their conversions to useful forms such as electricity and heat, and their utilization in different sectors, in response to socio-political factors. Because nuclear energy source is a clean and non-carbon-emitting energy source, it is crucial to consider its role in the evolution of the energy economy. Integrated Energy Systems (IES) are collaboratively controlled systems that can dynamically apportion thermal and/or electrical energy to promote the production of various energy products and have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, improve energy efficiency, improve electrical grid dependability, and enhance energy economics. To realize the benefits of IES with the current reactor fleets, selection and development of a complimentary temperature upgrading technology are necessary for providing process heat and improving economics.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon-13 Radiofrequency Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radiation of the Hyperpolarized Ketone and Hemiketal Forms of Allyl [1- 13 C]Pyruvate

13 C hyperpolarized pyruvate is an emerging MRI contrast agent for sensing molecular events in cancer and other diseases with aberrant metabolic pathways. This metabolic contrast agent can be produced via several hyperpolarization techniques. Despite remarkable success in research settings, widespread clinical adoption faces substantial roadblocks because the current sensing technology utilized to sense this contrast agent requires the excitation of 13 C nuclear spins that also need to be synchronized with MRI field gradient pulses. Here, we demonstrate sensing of hyperpolarized allyl [1- 13 C]pyruvate via the stimulated emission of radiation that mitigates the requirements currently blocking broader adoption. Specifically, 13 C Radiofrequency Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radiation ( 13 C RASER) was obtained after pairwise addition of parahydrogen to a pyruvate precursor, detected in a commercial inductive detector with a quality factor (Q) of 32 for sample concentrations as low as 0.125 M with 13 C polarization of 4%. Moreover, parahydrogen-induced polarization allowed for the preparation of a mixture of ketone and hemiketal forms of hyperpolarized allyl [1- 13 C]pyruvate, which are separated by 10 ppm in 13 C NMR spectra. This is a good model system to study the simultaneous 13 C RASER signals of multiple 13 C species. This system models the metabolic production of hyperpolarized [1- 13 C]lactate from hyperpolarized [1- 13 C]pyruvate, which has a similar chemical shift difference. Our results show that 13 C RASER signals can be obtained from both species simultaneously when the emission threshold is exceeded for both species. On the other hand, when the emission threshold is exceeded only for one of the hyperpolarized species, 13 C stimulated emission is confined to this species only, therefore enabling the background-free detection of individual hyperpolarized 13 C signals. Furthermore, the reported results pave the way to novel sensing approaches of 13 C hyperpolarized pyruvate, potentially unlocking hyperpolarized 13 C MRI on virtually any MRI system–an attractive vision for the future molecular imaging and diagnostics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design and Fabrication of Quantum Information Processing Devices (Final Report)

The goal of this work is to develop a wideband Josephson Parametric Amplifier (JPA) by the combination of a coplanar impedance transformer and a lumped Josephson Parametric Amplifier. Josephson Parametric Amplifiers take advantage of the nonlinear inductance of Josephson junctions and the nearly lossless superconductor circuits to achieve wave mixing and amplification with only quantum-limited added noise, which makes it a key component in quantum measurements, such as single-shot qubit measurement. However, the current JPAs generally have a relatively high quality factor and small bandwidth (around 50MHz to 100MHz), which limits their ability in measuring signals from a broad spectrum. Therefore, the work planned to use a coplanar impedance transformer to enhance the coupling between JPA and the signals, resulting in a small quality factor and large bandwidth. By decreasing the quality factor of JPA to around 3, one can achieve around 20dB gain within a bandwidth of several hundred MHz. Moreover, the wideband feature allows this device to explore the frequency dependence of the coupling between the JPA and the signals. Because the impedance transformer is based on a coplanar transmission line and requires no modifications of the lumped JPA, it is relatively straightforward to embed it in the current fabrication, package, and testing process for lumped JPA. The impedance transformer can be fabricated by liftoff or etching process with the lumped JPA together, which adds no fabrication complexity. The only difference is the size, which is around 3~5 times larger than lumped JPA. This may make the number of available chips on a single wafer lower. As for the public benefits, the development of this wideband JPA will make it possible to use just a single JPA device for multi-frequency signals, for example, the readout signals of a superconducting qubit chip with multiplexed readout bus. This would greatly decrease the demand for JPAs in quantum measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of Site Amplifications Using Ambient-Noise-Derived Shallow Velocity Structures Under a Dense Array in Oklahoma

The shear-wave velocity (V S ) structure plays an important role in characterizing site amplification. The Large-n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma (LASSO; 1820 stations) revealed large vertical ground-motion variability in a 25 km × 32 km area in northern Oklahoma. The LASSO array has a relatively simple and flat topography, typical in a sedimentary basin environment in the central United States. In this study, we use the dense array to investigate the velocity structure under the LASSO array and how vertical ground motions relate to the shallow-to-deep structures. We extract the fundamental-mode Rayleigh wave by cross-correlating one month of ambient noise (0.7–5 Hz). We use double-beamforming to measure the group and phase velocities and anisotropy. By jointly inverting the group and phase velocities, we obtain the V S structure. Here, we observe correlations between V S at depths of 0.1–1.5 km and vertical ground motions using sites on the stiffer Permian formations. The shallow Quaternary alluvium and terrace deposits can amplify vertical ground motions by a factor of 2–4.5 between 2 and 25 Hz and attenuate signals above 25 Hz. We use 1D V S profiles to simulate the SV-wave transfer functions. An average V S of 250 m/s in the upper 20–40 m may cause the observed amplification between 2 and 40 Hz. V S estimated by topographic slopes cannot predict the relative amplification. Our results highlight the large variability of site-dependent ground motion in a small local region and the importance of characterizing shallow structures to estimate seismic hazards. Small thickness variations of the shallow formation can significantly change the resonance amplitude and frequency, which likely reduces the coherency of the Rayleigh waves extracted from ambient noise.

Chang, Hilary [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (↗
DOE OSTI2024

Novel, Middle and Long Wave Infrared Laser Sources For Accelerator Applications

The main accomplishment during Years 2020-2024 of the DOE Accelerator Stewardship Program is proof-of-principle demonstration of amplification of an ultrashort 10 µm seed pulse in a multiatmosphere CO 2 laser optically pumped by nanosecond pulses of either a ~4.3 µm Fe:ZnSe laser or a 2.8 µm electro-optically (EO) Q-switched Er: Laser. This has been accomplished at the UCLA Neptune Laboratory by using about 100 mJ, ~100 ns long pulses generated by the pump laser built for this purpose by the UAB team. Implementation of EO Q-switching regime in the solid-state Er:laser system made possible nanosecond synchronization between the pump pulse and the 0.5 ps seed pulse produced by a commercial Ti:sapphire laser based mid-IR OPA/DFG. The injection mode-locking regime realized in a compact Mult atmosphere 3 Hz CO 2 -He regenerative amplifier enabled generation of a train of ultrashort pulses separated by the cavity round-trip time of ~3.2 ns. The measured gain lifetime of ~1 µs at a total pressure of ~12-15 atm indicates that lifetime of the upper laser level is a critical limiting factor in designing high-pressure CO 2 amplifiers. A single picosecond 10 mm pulse with an energy 0.1-0.2 mJ was extracted from the amplifier’s cavity using an ultrafast Ge semiconductor switch whose reflectivity was photo-induced by a femtosecond 800 nm pulse. For direct amplification regime, nonlinear absorption in Ge at 10 mm at GW/cm 2 intensities limited the extracted energy. Therefore, the generated energy could be further increased by minimizing losses in the switch and optimizing the cavity mode size. Based on the obtained data in collaboration with BNL colleagues, we have designed a high-pressure CO 2 amplifier to be used as a preamplifier for the future experiments at the ATF BNL. The latter work is the subject of funding availability.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gene Amplification, Laboratory Evolution, and Biosensor Screening Reveal MucK as a Terephthalic Acid Transporter in Acinetobacter baylyi ADP1

Microbial terephthalic acid (TPA) catabolic pathways are conserved among the few bacteria known to turnover this xenobiotic aromatic compound. However, to date there are few reported cases in which this pathway has been successfully expressed in heterologous hosts to impart efficient utilization of TPA as a sole carbon source. In this work, we aimed to engineer TPA conversion in Acinetobacter baylyi ADP1 via the heterologous expression of catabolic and transporter genes from a native TPA-utilizing bacterium. Specifically, we obtained ADP1-derived strains capable of growing on TPA as the sole carbon source using chromosomal insertion and targeted amplification of the tph catabolic operon from Comamonas sp. E6. Adaptive laboratory evolution was then used to improve growth on this substrate. TPA consumption rates of the evolved strains, which retained multiple copies of the tph genes, were ~0.2 g/L/h (or ~1 g TPA/g cells/h), similar to that of Comamonas sp. E6 and almost 2-fold higher than that of Rhodococcus jostii RHA1, another native TPA-utilizing strain. To evaluate TPA transport in the evolved ADP1 strains, we engineered a TPA biosensor consisting of the transcription factor TphR and a fluorescent reporter. In combination with whole-genome sequencing, the TPA biosensor revealed that transport of TPA was not mediated by the heterologous proteins from Comamonas sp. E6. Instead, the endogenous ADP1 muconate transporter MucK, a member of the major facilitator superfamily, was responsible for TPA transport in several evolved strains in which MucK variants were found to enhance TPA uptake. Furthermore, the IclR-type transcriptional regulator DcaS was identified as a repressor of mucK expression. Overall, this work presents an unexpected function of a native protein identified through gene amplification, adaptive laboratory evolution, and a combination of screening methods. This study also provides a TPA biosensor for application in ADP1 and identifies transporter variants for use in metabolic engineering applications focused on plastic upcycling of polyesters.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Targeting Drugs Against Fibroblast Growth Factor(s)-Induced Cell Signaling

Background:: The fibroblast growth factor (FGF) family is comprised of 23 highly regulatedmonomeric proteins that regulate a plethora of developmental and pathophysiological processes,including tissue repair, wound healing, angiogenesis, and embryonic development. Binding ofFGF to fibroblast growth factor receptor (FGFR), a tyrosine kinase receptor, is facilitated by a glycosaminoglycan,heparin. Activated FGFRs phosphorylate the tyrosine kinase residues that mediateinduction of downstream signaling pathways, such as RAS-MAPK, PI3K-AKT, PLCγ, andSTAT. Dysregulation of the FGF/FGFR signaling occurs frequently in cancer due to gene amplification,FGF activating mutations, chromosomal rearrangements, integration, and oncogenic fusions.Aberrant FGFR signaling also affects organogenesis, embryonic development, tissue homeostasis,and has been associated with cell proliferation, angiogenesis, cancer, and other pathophysiologicalchanges. Objective:: This comprehensive review will discuss the biology, chemistry, and functions of FGFs,and its current applications toward wound healing, diabetes, repair and regeneration of tissues, andfatty liver diseases. In addition, specific aberrations in FGFR signaling and drugs that target FGFRand aid in mitigating various disorders, such as cancer, are also discussed in detail. Conclusion:: Inhibitors of FGFR signaling are promising drugs in the treatment of several types ofcancers. The clinical benefits of FGF/FGFR targeting therapies are impeded due to the activationof other RTK signaling mechanisms or due to the mutations that abolish the drug inhibitory activityon FGFR. Thus, the development of drugs with a different mechanism of action for FGF/FGFRtargeting therapies is the recent focus of several preclinical and clinical studies.

Pharmacology & Pharmacy↗
DOE OSTI2025

High gas-pressure apparatus for nonlinear X-ray propagation and reshaping via stimulated X-ray Raman scattering

Abstract We describe an experimental setup for non-linear interaction and propagation of ultrashort and intense x-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) pulses in a dense gas. It allows one to provide high, but adjustable, target-gas pressures of up to 6 bar within a vacuum environment of 3∙10 − 3 mbar or better. The setup enables investigation of intense x-ray propagation in an optically thick medium with minimal absorption loss of the unfocused beam outside of the target. As an application, we demonstrate the amplification of spectrally-resolved stimulated x-ray Raman scattering (SXRS) in dense neon gas, where the most intense inner part of the beam is almost completely absorbed. As a result, in the inner part of the beam, the SXRS signal exceeds the residual XFEL pulse by a factor of around two. In principle, this reshaping effect allows for a spatial separation of the two spectral components, i.e., the driving pulse and the SXRS signal.

Magunia, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2019

Demonstration of waferscale voltage amplifier and electrostatic quadrupole focusing array for compact linear accelerators

Compact linear accelerators, with beam energies in the kiloelectron volt to megaelectron volt range, have applications in medicine, neutron/X-ray generation, surface modifications, etc. The size, weight, and power of existing accelerators preclude them from mass availability in portable formats. This paper presents a specific implementation of an ion accelerator architecture based on planar wafers with accelerating and focusing sections. Our low cost approach allows the control of the final ion beam energy with potential applications, for example, for accelerator-based ion implantation. In this paper, we demonstrate two important waferscale modules required to build a linear particle accelerator; these include (1) on-wafer voltage amplification for beam acceleration using Inductor-Capacitor (LC) resonators and (2) waferscale electrostatic quadrupole arrays (ESQA) to refocus the ion beams during transport. On-board LC resonators were developed using Printed Circuit Board fabrication processes to implement an LC element resonant at ~ 16.6 MHz with a quality factor of 25. An energy gain of ~ 250 eV was observed using a two wafer acceleration unit with an argon ion beam with 6.5 keV initial energy. A 3 × 3 ESQA was fabricated on a glass wafer with metal electrodes formed by depositing copper metal around the beam apertures. The ESQA was used to focus and defocus an argon ion beam, demonstrating a field gradient of ~ 500 V over a gap of ~ 250 μm.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Grassy-ELM regime with edge resonant magnetic perturbations in fully noninductive plasmas in the DIII-D tokamak

Resonant magnetic perturbations (n=3 RMPs) are used to eliminate large amplitude ELMs and reduce the amplitude of weaker "grassy"-ELMs in DIII-D plasmas relevant to the ITER steady-state mission. Fully non-inductive discharges in the ITER shape and pedestal collisionality (n*e ≈ 0.05-0.15) are routinely achieved in DIII-D with RMP suppression of Type-I ELMs. The residual grassy-ELMs deliver a low peak heat flux to the divertor, within 50% of the inter-ELM heat flux, in plasmas with sustained high H-factor (H98y2≈1.2). These grassy-ELM plasmas have a pedestal width that is typically 10% of the poloidal minor radius and ≈50% wider than EPED model predictions. The operating window for RMP grassy-ELMs in edge magnetic safety factor and external torque is in the range required for a steady-state tokamak reactor, such as q95 between 5.3 and 7.1, and co-Ip neutral beam torque down to 0.7 Nm. Small amplitude RMPs (dBvac/B≈1.5x10-4) are sufficient to access this regime, consistent with the large amplification of the vacuum field by the plasma, typically 3-4x the amplification produced by ITER baseline plasmas due to the high pedestal pressure. Cyclic pulsations are observed in the pedestal and plasma magnetic response, consistent with theoretically predicted limit cycle behavior of magnetic island penetration and screening. The grassy ELMs are strongly modulated and sometimes fully suppressed during these pedestal pulsations, consistent with the stabilizing effect of resonant field penetration on peeling-ballooning mode stability. The use of low amplitude edge-resonant magnetic perturbations to access enhanced grassy-ELM operation in a naturally wide pedestal plasma with weak confinement degradation opens the possibility for further optimization of the steady-state tokamak by improved coupling between external fields and weakly stable modes of the plasma.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The effect of atmospheric transmissivity on model and observational estimates of the sea ice albedo feedback

The sea-ice-albedo feedback (SIAF) is the product of the ice sensitivity (IS) – how much the surface albedo in sea-ice regions changes as the planet warms– and the radiative sensitivity (RS) – how much the top of atmosphere radiation changes as the surface albedo changes. We demonstrate that the RS calculated from radiative kernels in climate models is reproduced from calculations using the “approximate partial radiative perturbation” method that uses the climatological radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere and the assumption that the atmosphere is isotropic to shortwave radiation. This method facilitates the comparison of RS from satellite-based estimates of climatological radiative fluxes with RS estimates across a full suite of coupled climate models and, thus, allows model evaluation of a quantity important in characterizing the climate impact of sea ice concentration changes. The satellite based RS is within the model range of RS that differs by a factor of two across climate models in both the Arctic and Southern Ocean. Observed trends in Arctic sea ice are used to estimate IS which, in conjunction with the satellite-based RS yields an SIAF of 0.16 ± 0.04 W m-2 K-1. This Arctic SIAF estimate suggests a modest amplification of future global surface temperature change by approximately 14% relative to a climate system with no SIAF. We calculate the global albedo feedback in climate models using model specific RS and IS and find a model mean feedback parameter of 0.37 W m-2 K-1 which is 40% larger than the IPCC AR5 estimate based on using RS calculated from radiative kernel calculations in a single climate model.

Arctic, Antarctic, climate change, Climate & Earth↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sea ice evolution along the Northern Sea Route and implications for trans-Arctic shipping from 2021 through 2060

Arctic surface temperatures warmed at twice the global average in the second half of the 20 th century due to Arctic amplification (AA), a phenomenon predominantly caused by regional polar changes, like the melting of perennial sea ice and reduced sea ice extent (leading to more solar radiation being absorbed by the ocean surface as opposed to being reflected back to space by the ice surface). AA is projected to reach a factor of three even if the climate is stabilized by the mid 21 st century by reduced greenhouse gas emissions. In all emissions scenarios, AA is projected to lead to temperature changes at least 2.4 times larger than global mean surface temperature changes occurring between 2070 and 2100. The ice-albedo feedback, which occurs when the polar-marine surface absorbs more radiation as highly reflective sea ice melts, is reversible such that the premise of a runaway process is no longer accepted as a realistic possibility. No matter what actions are taken to reduce CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere from now on, two different methods of predicting an ice-free Arctic suggest that perennial sea ice will mostly disappear in September by the year 2050. If there is no reduction in anthropogenic CO 2 and methane emissions, that scenario could occur sooner than 2030. Defining Arctic navigability as safe and economic passage of Polar Class 7 cargo ships without need of an escorting icebreaker, no single trans Arctic ship route will be navigable year-round in the first half of the 21 st century, including in the strong emission scenarios. However, seasonal trans-Arctic navigability will increase this century. An estimate on the number of days per year that the Northern See Route (NSR) will be navigable in the future is beyond the scope of this report. Along Northern Sea Routes 5 and 6, which run close to the Russian coast and Yamal LNG plant, an ARC 7 ice class LNG tanker, the equivalent of a Polar Class 3 (PC3) vessel, will be at low risk in December through April at some point during the current decade. May will continue to entail some risk (more than April) along relatively short segments of these routes through the end of the next decade (2030-2039). Come June, snow rapidly melts away, and thereafter the underlying sea ice begins becomes thinner and less concentrated, greatly reducing risk. However, neither path is desirable for ARC 7 tankers due to shallow bathymetry in Sannikov Strait, and a more desirable path for these ships passes to the north of the New Siberian Islands (route 20, discussed further below). Conventional LNG tankers (i.e., non-ice-strengthened vessels according to the IMO classification), without icebreaker escorts, will continue to encounter dangerous or impassable conditions along many sections of the NSR through the end of this decade for many months of the year. Through 2039, these conventional tankers will be able to operate safely along NSR 6 from August through October. By 2040-2049, the span of safe operation increases to August through November, and by 2050-2059 it increases to July through November, assuming a northward deviation to avoid the Sannikov Strait.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗