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Determining Appropriate Risk Remediation Thresholds from Empirical Conjunction Data Using Survival Probability Methods

Satellites sometimes maneuver before conjunctions to remediate the risk of an on-orbit collision. Many missions use probability of collision (P_c) thresholds to decide when such maneuvers should be performed. These thresholds tend to be conservative because of policies that require satellites survive their lifetimes without collision with high confidence (e.g., 99.9%). This study presents a semi-empirical method to estimate remediation P_c thresholds that satisfy such lifetime risk requirements. The formulation combines survival probability analysis with empirical conjunction histories to estimate remediation thresholds as a function of satellite size, remaining on-orbit duration, lifetime collision probability limit, collision consequence, and other parameters.

Risk Remediation↗

NASA NTRS2021

Trend Detection of Atmospheric Time Series: Incorporating Appropriate Uncertainty Estimates and Handling Extreme Events

This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to, 1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry; 2) describe a range of trend-detection methods; and 3) demonstrate effective means of conveying the results to a general audience. Trend detections in atmospheric chemical composition data are often challenged by a variety of sources of uncertainty, which often behave differently to other environmental phenomena such as temperature, precipitation rate, or stream flow, and may require specific methods depending on the science questions to be addressed. Some sources of uncertainty can be explicitly included in the model specification, such as autocorrelation and seasonality, but some inherent uncertainties are difficult to quantify, such as data heterogeneity and measurement uncertainty due to the combined effect of short- and long-term natural variability, instrumental stability, and aggregation of data from sparse sampling frequency. Failure to account for these uncertainties might result in an inappropriate inference of the trends and their estimation errors. On the other hand, the variation in extreme events might be interesting for different scientific questions, for example, the frequency of extremely high surface ozone events and their relevance to human health. In this study we aim to, 1) review trend detection methods for addressing different levels of data complexity in different chemical species; 2) demonstrate that the incorporation of scientifically interpretable covariates can outperform pure numerical curve fitting techniques in terms of uncertainty reduction and improved predictability; 3) illustrate the study of trends based on extreme quantiles that can provide insight beyond standard mean or median based trend estimates; and 4) present an advanced method of quantifying regional trends based on the inter-site correlations of multi-site data. All demonstrations are based on time series of observed trace gases relevant to atmospheric chemistry, but the methods can be applied to other environmental data sets.

Trace gas↗

NASA NTRS1992

Introduction to Space Station Freedom

NASA field centers and contractors are organized to develop 'work packages' for Space Station Freedom. Marshall Space Flight Center and Boeing are building the U.S. laboratory and habitation modules, nodes, and environmental control and life support system; Johnson Space Center and McDonnell Douglas are responsible for truss structure, data management, propulsion systems, thermal control, and communications and guidance; Lewis Research Center and Rocketdyne are developing the power system. The Canadian Space Agency (CSA) is contributing a Mobile Servicing Center, Special Dextrous Manipulator, and Mobile Servicing Center Maintenance Depot. The National Space Development Agency of Japan (NASDA) is contributing a Japanese Experiment Module (JEM), which includes a pressurized module, logistics module, and exposed experiment facility. The European Space Agency (ESA) is contributing the Columbus laboratory module. NASA ground facilities, now in various stages of development to support Space Station Freedom, include: Marshall Space Flight Center's Payload Operations Integration Center and Payload Training Complex (Alabama), Johnson Space Center's Space Station Control Center and Space Station Training Facility (Texas), Lewis Research Center's Power System Facility (Ohio), and Kennedy Space Center's Space Station Processing Facility (Florida). Budget appropriations impact the development of the Space Station. In Fiscal Year 1988, Congress appropriated only half of the funds that NASA requested for the space station program ($393 million vs. $767 million). In FY 89, NASA sought $967 million for the program, and Congress appropriated $900 million. NASA's FY 90 request was $2.05 billion compared to an appropriation of $1.75 billion; the FY 91 request was $2.45 billion, and the appropriation was $1.9 billion. After NASA restructured the Space Station Freedom program in response to directions from Congress, the agency's full budget request of $2.029 billion for Space Station Freedom in FY 92 was appropriated. For FY 93, NASA is seeking $2.25 billion for the program; the planned budget for FY 94 is $2.5 billion. Further alterations to the hardware configuration for Freedom would be a serious setback; NASA intends 'to stick with the current baseline' and continue planning for utilization.

Kohrs, Richard↗

NASA NTRS1998

System and method for creating expert systems

A system and method provides for the creation of a highly graphical expert system without the need for programming in code. An expert system is created by initially building a data interface, defining appropriate Mission, User-Defined, Inferred, and externally-generated GenSAA (EGG) data variables whose data values will be updated and input into the expert system. Next, rules of the expert system are created by building appropriate conditions of the rules which must be satisfied and then by building appropriate actions of rules which are to be executed upon corresponding conditions being satisfied. Finally, an appropriate user interface is built which can be highly graphical in nature and which can include appropriate message display and/or modification of display characteristics of a graphical display object, to visually alert a user of the expert system of varying data values, upon conditions of a created rule being satisfied. The data interface building, rule building, and user interface building are done in an efficient manner and can be created without the need for programming in code.

Hughes, Peter M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Latching Solenoid-Operated Ball Valve

Proposed solenoid-operated ball valve latches in open or closed position until energized to change position. Electrical energy consumed only during opening or closing motion. Valve ball contains central channel through which fluid could flow. Made of highly magnetically permeable steel. When appropriate coil(s) energized by brief pulse (or pulses) of electrical current at appropriate polarity, ball rotates clockwise until permanent magnets come to rest against hard stops in housing, and inlet and outlet ports aligned with central channel so fluid flows through valve. Magnets adhere to stops by magnetic attraction, latching valve in open position. To close valve, appropriate coil(s) energized by pulse (or pulses) of appropriate polarity to generate magnetic forces rotating ball counterclockwise until magnets make contact with hard stops, and inlet and outlet ports sealed.

Brudnicki, Myron↗

NASA NTRS2000

Isentropic Compression of Multicomponent Mixtures of Fuels and Inert Gases

In selected aerospace applications of the fuels hydrazine and monomethythydrazine, there occur conditions which can result in the isentropic compression of a multicomponent mixture of fuel and inert gas. One such example is when a driver gas such as helium comes out of solution and mixes with the fuel vapor, which is being compressed. A second example is when product gas from an energetic device mixes with the fuel vapor which is being compressed. Thermodynamic analysis has shown that under isentropic compression, the fuels hydrazine and monomethylhydrazine must be treated as real fluids using appropriate equations of state. The appropriate equations of state are the Peng-Robinson equation of state for hydrazine and the Redlich-Kwong-Soave equation of state for monomethylhydrazine. The addition of an inert gas of variable quantity and input temperature and pressure to the fuel compounds the problem for safety design or analysis. This work provides the appropriate thermodynamic analysis of isentropic compression of the two examples cited. In addition to an entropy balance describing the change of state, an enthalpy balance is required. The presence of multicomponents in the system requires that appropriate mixing rules are identified and applied to the analysis. This analysis is not currently available.

Barragan, Michelle↗

NASA NTRS2001

Grasping objects by their handles: a necessary interaction between cognition and action

Research has illustrated dissociations between "cognitive" and "action" systems, suggesting that different representations may underlie phenomenal experience and visuomotor behavior. However, these systems also interact. The present studies show a necessary interaction when semantic processing of an object is required for an appropriate action. Experiment 1 demonstrated that a semantic task interfered with grasping objects appropriately by their handles, but a visuospatial task did not. Experiment 2 assessed performance on a visuomotor task that had no semantic component and showed a reversal of the effects of the concurrent tasks. In Experiment 3, variations on concurrent word tasks suggested that retrieval of semantic information was necessary for appropriate grasping. In all, without semantic processing, the visuomotor system can direct the effective grasp of an object, but not in a manner that is appropriate for its use.

NASA Center ARC↗

NASA NTRS2004

Global Patterns in Human Consumption of Net Primary Production

The human population and its consumption profoundly affect the Earth's ecosystems. A particularly compelling measure of humanity's cumulative impact is the fraction of the planet's net primary production that we appropriate for our Net primary production-the net amount of solar energy converted to plant organic matter through photosynthesis-can be measured in units of elemental carbon and represents the primary food energy source for the world's ecosystems. Human appropriation of net primary production, apart from leaving less for other species to use, alters the composition of the atmosphere, levels of biodiversity, flows within food webs and the provision of important primary production required by humans and compare it to the total amount generated on the landscape. We then derive a spatial ba!mce sheet of net primary production supply and demand for the world. We show that human appropriation of net primary production varies spatially from almost zero to many times the local primary production. These analyses reveal the uneven footprint of human consumption and related environmental impacts, indicate the degree to which human populations depend on net primary production "imports" and suggest policy options for slowing future growth of human appropriation of net primary production.

Imhoff, Marc L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

NASA HRP Immunology Discipline - Use of Terrestrial Analogs

Due to the cost and operational constraints, as well as technical implementation limitations, it is desirous to perform relevant space physiology investigations first in terrestrial 'space analogs'. This is particularly true for initial investigations, which may then provide appropriate focus for subsequent flight investigations, or for mechanistic investigations that simply cannot be performed during spaceflight. Appropriate analog choice is extremely important. There are a wide variety of terrestrial space analogs, each relevant to a particular physiological discipline (or disciplines) and each with a particular fidelity (or lack thereof) to spaceflight, and each with unique operational constraints. The HRP Immunology Discipline is tasked with managing the HRP Risk concerning clinical risk for Astronaut crews related to spaceflight-associated immune dysregulation. Such dysregulation has been documented to occur during spaceflight, and found to persist for the duration of a 6-month ISS mission. Studies continue to characterize the onorbit phenomenon, but it generally consists of diminished immunocyte function, dysregulated cytokine profiles, and persistent herpesvirus reactivation. Causes are thought to synergistically include microgravity, psychological or physiological stress, radiation, and/or circadian misalignment. An appropriate terrestrial analog for immune dysregulation would replicate as many of these influences as possible. Such analogs may include clinostat or bioreactor cell culture (microgravity), hindlimb suspension (stress, fluid shifts, hypokinesis), or human deployment to remote or extreme environments (isolation, stress, circadian). Also, the laboratory setting may be used as an analog, or to augment analogs, such as sleep deprivation/misalignment or human centrifugation to replicate gravitational stress. As an appropriate example of a NASA Disciplines use of Terrestrial space analogs, this talk will discuss spaceflight associated immune dysregulation, terrestrial immune analogs, and recent analog investigations.

Crucian, Brian↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Module for Assimilating Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles into the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation System for Unique Forecasting Applications

Hyperspectral infrared sounder radiance data are assimilated into operational modeling systems however the process is computationally expensive and only approximately 1% of available data are assimilated due to data thinning as well as the fact that radiances are restricted to cloud-free fields of view. In contrast, the number of hyperspectral infrared profiles assimilated is much higher since the retrieved profiles can be assimilated in some partly cloudy scenes due to profile coupling other data, such as microwave or neural networks, as first guesses to the retrieval process. As the operational data assimilation community attempts to assimilate cloud-affected radiances, it is possible that the use of retrieved profiles might offer an alternative methodology that is less complex and more computationally efficient to solve this problem. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has assimilated hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles into Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulations using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) System. Early research at SPoRT demonstrated improved initial conditions when assimilating Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) thermodynamic profiles into WRF (using WRF-Var and assigning more appropriate error weighting to the profiles) to improve regional analysis and heavy precipitation forecasts. Successful early work has led to more recent research utilizing WRF and GSI for applications including the assimilation of AIRS profiles to improve WRF forecasts of atmospheric rivers and assimilation of AIRS, Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) profiles to improve model representation of tropopause folds and associated non-convective wind events. Although more hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles can be assimilated into model forecasts, one disadvantage is the retrieved profiles have traditionally been assigned the same error values as the rawinsonde observations when assimilated with GSI. Typically, satellitederived profile errors are larger and more difficult to quantify than traditional rawinsonde observations (especially in the boundary layer), so it is important to appropriately assign observation errors within GSI to eliminate potential spurious innovations and analysis increments that can sometimes arise when using retrieved profiles. The goal of this study is to describe modifications to the GSI source code to more appropriately assimilate hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles and outline preliminary results that show the differences between a model simulation that assimilated the profiles as rawinsonde observations and one that assimilated the profiles in a module with the appropriate error values.

Berndt, Emily↗

NASA NTRS2024

NASA Engineering and Safety Center Lunar Rover Design Concepts Assessments

Mass is a significant risk to programs and projects as they transition from formulation to implementation, especially in larger human space systems where delivery mass or volume can be a constrained commodity. • Concepts developed without an adequate systems-engineering basis, including design and operations experience, may miss significant functionality and subsequent mass required for integration or operations. • Further uncertainty can be associated with not fully understanding design best practices and standards that drive mass, such as design for minimum risk or fault tolerance.1 • Finally, the appropriate systems engineering mass properties management rigor and technical discipline insight are required to set the mass baseline, including appropriate mass growth allowance (MGA) to ensure program success. Mass is a key quantity that should be constantly monitored by the systems engineer and the program/project management stakeholder to ensure mission compatibility throughout the project life cycle. In addition, mass is a key programmatic performance metric monitored by the NASA Chief Financial Officer for current and future program cost estimating. NASA Exploration Systems sought an assessment of reasonableness with respect to different potential rover concepts that balances mass needs and human-class cargo lander capabilities. Appropriate systems engineering mass properties management rigor and technical discipline insight were used, and are required to set the mass baseline, including appropriate MGA to ensure program success. Two independent Lunar rover concepts were evaluated, with a goal to understand concept credibility and the Lunar rover designs potential extensibility for Mars surface operations. A notional generic rover concept is shown in Figure 1.

Systems Engineering↗

NASA NTRS1975

Analytic and experimental evaluation of flowing air test conditions for selected metallics in a shuttle TPS application

A detailed experimental and analytical evaluation was performed to define the response of TD nickel chromium alloy (20 percent chromium) and coated columbium (R512E on CB-752 and VH-109 on WC129Y) to shuttle orbiter reentry heating. Flight conditions important to the response of these thermal protection system (TPS) materials were calculated, and test conditions appropriate to simulation of these flight conditions in flowing air ground test facilities were defined. The response characteristics of these metallics were then evaluated for the flight and representative ground test conditions by analytical techniques employing appropriate thermochemical and thermal response computer codes and by experimental techniques employing an arc heater flowing air test facility and flat face stagnation point and wedge test models. These results were analyzed to define the ground test requirements to obtain valid TPS response characteristics for application to flight. For both material types in the range of conditions appropriate to the shuttle application, the surface thermochemical response resulted in a small rate of change of mass and a negligible energy contribution. The thermal response in terms of surface temperature was controlled by the net heat flux to the surface; this net flux was influenced significantly by the surface catalycity and surface emissivity. The surface catalycity must be accounted for in defining simulation test conditions so that proper heat flux levels to, and therefore surface temperatures of, the test samples are achieved.

Schaefer, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Group 4: Instructor training and qualifications

Each professional instructor or check airman used in LOFT training course should complete an FAA approved training course in the appropriate aircraft type. Instructors used in such courses need not be type-rated. If an instructor or check airman who is presently not line-qualified is used as a LOFT instructor, he or she should remain current in line-operational procedures by observing operating procedures from the jump seat on three typical line segments pr 90 days on the appropriate aircraft type. ("Line qualification" means completion as a flight crew member of at least three typical line segments per 90 days on the appropriate aircraft type.) The training should include the requirement of four hours of LOFT training, in lieu of actual aircraft training or line operating experience.

Sessa, R.↗

NASA NTRS1987

The factor of scale in remote sensing

A method that measures the spatial structure of images as a function of spatial resolution is presented for selecting the appropriate scale for remote sensing. Graphs are obtained by imaging the scene at fine resolution and then collapsing the image to successively coarser resolutions while calculating the local variance. For the spatial resolution of SPOT and TM imagery, local image variance is relatively high for forested and urban/suburban environments, indicating that information-extraction techniques using texture, context, and mixture modeling are appropriate for these sensor systems. For agricultural environments where local variance is low, more traditional classifiers are appropriate.

Woodcock, Curtis E.↗

NASA NTRS1988

A generic expert system for materials processing in space

A generic expert system is described for inspecting materials processed in space (MPS). The system may be applied, with the appropriate knowledge base, to any of the nondestructive testing methods (NDT) which are appropriate to MPS. Regardless of the method being used, the inspection process consists of three tasks: (1) signal or image processing of the NDT output and feature extraction, (2) interpretation of features in terms of MPS discontinuities, and (3) evaluation of the quality of the MPS based upon industry standards. In contrast to rule based systems, this system represents its knowledge as multidimensional vectors and appropriate functions on them. Currently, the expert system accepts manual input of observed features. Once the expert system has been tested and compared to human expert inspectors, a vision front-end will be developed to complete automation of the expert MPS inspection system, based on visual discontuities. Then the data base will be extended to include a variety of other NDT methods. In addition to functional performance, ease of use was established through menu window driven input as well as flexibility in building, using and modifying data bases for different applications.

Andersen, Kristinn↗

NASA NTRS1989

The problem of automation: Inappropriate feedback and interaction, not overautomation

As automation increasingly takes its place in industry, especially high-risk industry, it is often blamed for causing harm and increasing the chance of human error when failures occur. It is proposed that the problem is not the presence of automation, but rather its inappropriate design. The problem is that the operations are performed appropriately under normal conditions, but there is inadequate feedback and interaction with the humans who must control the overall conduct of the task. When the situations exceed the capabilities of the automatic equipment, then the inadequate feedback leads to difficulties for the human controllers. The problem is that the automation is at an intermediate level of intelligence, powerful enough to take over control that which used to be done by people, but not powerful enough to handle all abnormalities. Moreover, its level of intelligence is insufficient to provide the continual, appropriate feedback that occurs naturally among human operators. To solve this problem, the automation should either be made less intelligent or more so, but the current level is quite inappropriate. The overall message is that it is possible to reduce error through appropriate design considerations.

Norman, Donald A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Model-based displays for satellite ground control

With the emergence of new technology for both human-computer interaction and knowledge-based systems, a range of opportunities exists to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of satellite ground controllers. The use of models of operator function to represent operator activity in the context of changing system events and operator functions is illustrated. Although there are many models, the operator function model (OFM) was used in this research. In addition to representing operator activities, the OFM can be used to design 'intelligent' operator displays and, in real time, control the displayed information so that the operator has the appropriate information, at the appropriate time, and at the appropriate level of abstraction. The OFM was demonstrated in the context of a NASA Goddard Space Flight Center satellite ground control system. To evaluate the effectiveness of the model-based workstation, an experiment was conducted to compare system performance with a conventional operator workstation versus the model based workstation.

Mitchell, Christine M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Intelligent computer-aided training and tutoring

Specific autonomous training systems based on artificial intelligence technology for use by NASA astronauts, flight controllers, and ground-based support personnel that demonstrate an alternative to current training systems are described. In addition to these specific systems, the evolution of a general architecture for autonomous intelligent training systems that integrates many of the features of traditional training programs with artificial intelligence techniques is presented. These Intelligent Computer-Aided Training (ICAT) systems would provide, for the trainee, much of the same experience that could be gained from the best on-the-job training. By integrating domain expertise with a knowledge of appropriate training methods, an ICAT session should duplicate, as closely as possible, the trainee undergoing on-the-job training in the task environment, benefitting from the full attention of a task expert who is also an expert trainer. Thus, the philosophy of the ICAT system is to emulate the behavior of an experienced individual devoting his full time and attention to the training of a novice - proposing challenging training scenarios, monitoring and evaluating the actions of the trainee, providing meaningful comments in response to trainee errors, responding to trainee requests for information, giving hints (if appropriate), and remembering the strengths and weaknesses displayed by the trainee so that appropriate future exercises can be designed.

Loftin, R. Bowen↗