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At least 73 records · Page 4

Microbial metabolic dependency and its impacts on the soil carbon cycle (Final Technical Report, DE-SC0016364)

The terrestrial biosphere contains a large fraction of global carbon (C) and nearly 70% of the organic C in terrestrial systems is found in soils. Global changes in atmospheric CO 2 , temperature, precipitation, and ecosystem N inputs, will impact primary production and carbon inputs to soils, but it remains difficult to predict soil responses to these environmental conditions. Our ability to predict C-cycle responses to global change remains limited by unexplained variability within the terrestrial C-cycle. Our difficulty in predicting responses of the soil C-cycle to environmental change suggests a need for a greater understanding of the biotic mechanisms that govern soil C-transformations. Changes in microbial community structure and function have been proposed to impact soil processes, but mechanistic connections between microbial activity and C-cycle transformations remain poorly described. We assembled an interdisciplinary team to conduct cross-scale examination of microbial contributions to C-cycle dynamics and C-fate in soils. We investigated microbial contributions to soil C-transformations using a suite of complementary isotopic techniques including DNA-Stable Isotope Probing (DNA-SIP), metagenomic-SIP, metabolomic-SIP, proteomic-SIP, and microspatial analysis of soil organic C. These techniques were deployed in experiments that tested fundamental assumptions that underlie terrestrial C-cycle models. We characterized the functional characteristics of soil microorganisms responsible for major C-transformations in soil, evaluated the metabolic and ecological interactions that underlie soil C-cycle dynamics, and evaluated the degree to which these interactions impact rates of C mineralization and stabilization in soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding Biomass Burning Aerosol via Integrated Analyses of Aerosol Mass Spectrometry Data from DOE Campaigns and ACRF Long Term Measurements

Biomass burning (BB) is one of the largest sources of aerosol particles in the atmosphere and a significant source of trace gases important to atmospheric chemistry. Organic aerosols from biomass burning sources (BBOA) are an important but poorly characterized component of the earth’s climate system. BBOA composition and life cycle processes are associated with enormous complexities and contribute significantly to model uncertainties. Hence it is important to improve the ability to simulate the concentration and properties (chemical, optical, and hygroscopic) of BBOA and the atmospheric aging processes that affect these properties. Here, we propose to analyze ambient data collected from the DOE Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP) field campaign and from a long term measurement site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program – the Southern Great Plains (SGP), where transported BB plumes and elevated BBOA episodes were frequently observed. This project is aimed at 1) gaining detailed, quantitative understanding of the chemical and physical properties of BBOA and their chemical changes during atmospheric aging via advanced analysis of aerosol measurement data acquired at the summit of Mt. Bachelor (MBO) during the BBOP campaign and through integration with concurrent measurements of trace gases, particle properties, and meteorological conditions performed at MBO and from the G-1 aircraft; 2) gaining better understanding of BBOA properties and its roles in radiative forcing via analysis of routine data from the ARM long-term measurement sites; and 3) integrating the results from 1) and 2) into a global database of aerosol mass spectrometry and collaborate with modelers on evaluating and improving numerical model performance as part of the ASR program.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coupling of high-resolution mass spectrometer and photosynthesis system for comprehensive leaf volatile metabolite profiling

Background Leaf-level biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emissions represent a major source of organic gases in the atmosphere, influencing both climate and air quality. These emissions are strongly driven by environmental perturbations, which affect individual plant- to ecosystem-level processes. Uncovering all the BVOCs and understanding how their emissions respond to altered environmental conditions provide critical insights into vegetation-driven changes in atmospheric chemistry. We developed a tandem instrumentation setup that integrates a proton transfer reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometer (PTR-ToF-MS) with parts-per-trillion detection limits and a photosynthetic infrared gas exchange system for the untargeted survey of all the BVOCs. This novel system enables simultaneous, real-time monitoring of BVOC emissions and photosynthetic parameters at the leaf level, offering new opportunities to disentangle the physiological and environmental drivers of VOC release. Furthermore, we established the VOC Analysis and Processing Optimization Resource (VAPOR), an open-access software tool designed for rapid data post-processing and the analysis of the variability of hundreds of BVOCs. We assessed the performance of the tandem system under varying background conditions, using standard gas mixtures and a range of environmental factors. Results Blank emissions were substantially lower for major BVOCs (e.g., isoprene) compared to those observed in plant emissions. Despite this, the observation of background-level VOCs highlights the importance of routinely acquiring and accounting for blank measurements in analyses using the coupled instrumentation. Introduction of known VOC concentrations to the system demonstrated a linear response across different compounds with varying molecular compositions, indicating minimal gas loss regardless of chemical moieties within the coupled instrumentation. We applied the optimized system to investigate the physiological mechanisms driving BVOC emissions across different genotypes of poplar and pennycress. The high mass resolution capabilities of the PTR-ToF-MS, coupled with comprehensive VAPOR-driven data analysis, enabled the identification of several important BVOCs, including methanol and methanethiol; these BVOCs displayed substantial variation across pennycress genotypes and showed concentrations ~ 100–350% higher than the blank. Moreover, isoprene emissions varied significantly among poplar genotypes grown in different potting media. Conclusions Tandem instrumentation offers a powerful tool for profiling volatile molecular markers and elucidating their genetic and environmental underpinnings. This approach enhances our ability to predict BVOC emissions in response to genotype by environmental interactions and contributes to a deeper understanding of vegetation responses to environmental changes.

Biogenic volatile organic compounds↗

Role of Forest Carbon Change in Shaping Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

Global change, particularly the changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, climatic variables, and nitrogen deposition, has been widely recognized and examined to have worldwide impacts on forest carbon. However, its influence on forest area required to meet the demand for timber and carbon storage and subsequent land use and land cover change (LULCC) is rarely studied. This study explores the role of global change-driven forest carbon change in shaping future global LULCC projections and investigates underlying drivers. We incorporated the global change impacts on forest carbon from the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles model simulations (driven by meteorological forcing projections from two Earth system models [ESMs]) into the Global Change Analysis Model, under three combinations of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Including forest carbon change decreases the projected expansion of managed forest and managed pasture, reduces the loss of unmanaged pastures and forests, and provides more cropland. The relative change in managed forest by 2100 is -4.0%, -21.7%, and -31.9%, under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, when forest carbon change is considered. CO 2 fertilization is the dominant driver, increasing forest vegetation and soil carbon by 37% and 4.1%, and leading to 78.6% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585. In comparison, climate change reduces forest vegetation and soil carbon by -3.5% and -0.8%, influencing 23.9% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585, while nitrogen deposition has minor impacts. Using meteorological forcing data from two ESMs leads to similar impacts of forest carbon change on LULCC in terms of sign and trend but different magnitudes. This study highlights the large impact of forest carbon change on shaping future LULCC dynamics and the critical role of CO 2 fertilization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Consistent responses of vegetation gas exchange to elevated atmospheric CO 2 emerge from heuristic and optimization models

Elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration is expected to increase leaf CO 2 assimilation rates, thus promoting plant growth and increasing leaf area. It also decreases stomatal conductance, allowing water savings, which have been hypothesized to drive large-scale greening, in particular in arid and semiarid climates. However, the increase in leaf area could reduce the benefits of elevated CO 2 concentration through soil water depletion. The net effect of elevated CO 2 on leaf- and canopy-level gas exchange remains uncertain. To address this question, we compare the outcomes of a heuristic model based on the Partitioning of Equilibrium Transpiration and Assimilation (PETA) hypothesis and three model variants based on stomatal optimization theory. Predicted relative changes in leaf- and canopy-level gas exchange rates are used as a metric of plant responses to changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Both model approaches predict reductions in leaf-level transpiration rate due to decreased stomatal conductance under elevated CO 2 , but negligible (PETA) or no (optimization) changes in canopy-level transpiration due to the compensatory effect of increased leaf area. Leaf- and canopy-level CO 2 assimilation is predicted to increase, with an amplification of the CO 2 fertilization effect at the canopy level due to the enhanced leaf area. The expected increase in vapour pressure deficit (VPD) under warmer conditions is generally predicted to decrease the sensitivity of gas exchange to atmospheric CO 2 concentration in both models. The consistent predictions by different models that canopy-level transpiration varies little under elevated CO 2 due to combined stomatal conductance reduction and leaf area increase highlight the coordination of physiological and morphological characteristics in vegetation to maximize resource use (here water) under altered climatic conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rain-Induced Stratification of the Equatorial Indian Ocean and Its Potential Feedback to the Atmosphere

Surface freshening through precipitation can act to stably stratify the upper ocean, forming a rain layer (RL). RLs inhibit subsurface vertical mixing, isolating deeper ocean layers from the atmosphere. This process has been studied using observations and idealized simulations. The present ocean modeling study builds upon this body of work by incorporating spatially resolved and realistic atmospheric forcing. Fine-scale observations of the upper ocean collected during the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation field campaign are used to verify the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). Spatiotemporal characteristics of equatorial Indian Ocean RLs are then investigated by forcing a 2D array of GOTM columns with realistic and well-resolved output from an existing regional atmospheric simulation. RL influence on the ocean-atmosphere system is evaluated through analysis of RL-induced modification to surface fluxes and sea surface temperature (SST). This analysis demonstrates that RLs cool the ocean surface on time scales longer than the associated precipitation event. A second simulation with identical atmospheric forcing to that in the first, but with rainfall set to zero, is performed to investigate the role of rain temperature and salinity stratification in maintaining cold SST anomalies within RLs. Approximately one third, or 0.1°C, of the SST reduction within RLs can be attributed to rain effects, while the remainder is attributed to changes in atmospheric temperature and humidity. The prolonged RL-induced SST anomalies enhance SST gradients that have been shown to favor the initiation of atmospheric convection. These findings encourage continued research of RL feedbacks to the atmosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Paleo-Megadroughts and Abrupt Climate Changes in the Speleothem Records. Final report

This project is motivated by the speleothem isotope records in Asia, which show regional responses in the hydrologic cycle to different climate forcings. Speleothem isotopic records are typically interpreted in terms of local precipitation variations or monsoon intensity. Our study demonstrates that non-local processes also play an important role. We started this project to understand the regional difference in speleothem isotopic composition between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present-day. The record in Southwest China showed greater depletion during the LGM compared to those in East China. Our modeling and analysis showed that speleothems record, in addition, large scale changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture transport and their subsequent impact on precipitation. We developed an algorithm to partition total precipitation according to their formation dynamics, namely into frontal and non-frontal precipitation, and showed that the two have different trends and hence different causal mechanism. We then focused our subsequent attention on circulation impacts on precipitation changes. We applied a machine learning algorithm to detect rainbands in the ERA-Interim reanalysis product, and showed that the seasonal migrations of the rainbands are tied to the seasonal migrations of the jet stream, in particular the northerlies of the jet meanders. These northerlies, in turn, are partly topographic Rossby waves excited as the upstream westerlies impinge on the Tibetan Plateau. The seasonal variations of these upstream westerlies thus contribute to the seasonal movements of the rainbands and regional precipitation changes. Our analysis of the modern precipitation isotope record further confirms the importance of jet stream changes in the isotopic variations and shows that isotope-enriched years have reduced summer seasonality, with less pronounced northward migration of the jet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hourly water-carbon interactions modulate decadal water-use efficiency trends inferred from ecosystem-scale measurements

Plant stomatal conductance regulates photosynthesis and transpiration. This physiological link affects ecosystem responses to microclimate and harmonizes carbon, energy, and water exchanges between the biosphere and atmosphere. The relationship between water losses via transpiration and carbon gains via photosynthesis can be quantified by plant water-use efficiency (WUE). While leaf- and ecosystem-scale observations both suggest rising WUE in recent decades, WUE trends inferred from the ecosystem scale are much larger than those inferred from the leaf scale or implied by theory. The unexpectedly large ecosystem-scale WUE trends complicate interpretation of ecophysiological responses to changing environmental conditions. Here, we analyze ecosystem-scale WUE inferred from 40 FLUXNET sites, each with at least 10 years of measurements. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that observed ecosystem-scale WUE trends are more sensitive to hourly weather conditions than longer-term changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide or vapor pressure deficit. Our analysis shows that Earth System Models participating in CMIP6 did not capture the observed WUE sensitivity to inter-site variability and microclimatic conditions. Collectively, our findings suggest that ecosystem-scale WUE trends reflect water-carbon interactions across multiple temporal scales, and disentangling factors contributing to emergent ecosystem responses is needed to infer ecophysiological relationships and model structures from observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large Divergence in Tropical Hydrological Projections Caused by Model Spread in Vegetation Responses to Elevated CO 2

Increasing atmospheric CO 2 and associated global warming are expected to alter the global hydrological cycle, thereby posing widespread threats to freshwater availability. However, future hydrological projections differ greatly between models, particularly over the tropical regions. The large difference between model projections directly limits policy planning efforts, and the responsible modeling processes remain unclear. Here, we identify the primary processes accounting for model differences in tropical hydrological changes using multiple CO 2 sensitivity experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We show that differences in projected changes to tropical evapotranspiration, precipitation, and surface water availability mainly arise from model representations of vegetation cover and stomatal conductance responses to elevated CO 2 and associated changes in atmospheric moisture and circulation. Atmospheric responses to sea surface warming contribute additionally to the divergence in hydrological projections. Given the importance of vegetation responses to elevated CO 2 and associated atmosphere feedbacks, our results underscore the need to improve representations of the vegetation physiological response to rising CO 2 and its coupling to the atmosphere, to provide reliable tropical hydrological projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An underestimated negative cloud feedback from cloud lifetime changes

As the atmosphere warms, part of the cloud population shifts from ice and mixed phase (“cold”) to liquid (“warm”) clouds. Because warm clouds are more reflective and longerlived, this phase change reduces the solar flux absorbed by Earth and constitutes a negative radiative feedback. This cooling feedback is weaker in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, contributing to greater greenhouse warming. While this change is often attributed to improvements in simulated cloud phase, another model bias persists: warm clouds precipitate too readily, potentially leading to underestimated negative lifetime feedbacks. In this work, we modify a climate model to better simulate warm rain probability and find it exhibits a cloud lifetime feedback nearly three times larger than the default model. This suggests model errors in cloud-precipitation processes may bias cloud feedbacks as much as CMIP5–CMIP6 climate sensitivity differences. Reliable climate model projections therefore require improved cloud process realism guided by process-oriented observations and observational constraints.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Future projections of storm surge in Hurricane Katrina and sensitivity to meteorological forcing resolution

In this study, we investigated whether and how the storm surge induced by Hurricane Katrina could change if it occurs in a future warmer climate, and the sensitivity of the changes to atmospheric forcing resolution. Climate model simulations of Hurricane Katrina at 27 km, 4.5 km, and 3 km resolutions were used to drive storm surge simulations in historical and future climates using the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. We found that peak surge height increased significantly in the future with all forcing resolutions. However, the future projection is 22% greater in the 3 km forcing, typical of regional climate models, compared to the 27 km forcing, typical of state-of-the-art global climate models. Additionally, the spatial extent of the future change is highly sensitive to forcing resolution, extending most broadly under the 27 km forcing. Furthermore, we found that storm surge duration decreases in the future with all forcing resolutions due to increasing TC translation speed and decreasing ocean lifetime. However, the future change in the surge duration is sensitive to the forcing resolution, decreasing by 31% in the 27 km forcing and 6% in the 3 km forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A U.S. Scientific Community Vision for Sustained Earth Observations of Greenhouse Gases to Support Local to Global Action

Managing carbon stocks in the land, ocean, and atmosphere under changing climate requires a globally‐integrated view of carbon cycle processes at local and regional scales. The growing Earth Observation (EO) record is the backbone of this multi‐scale system, providing local information with discrete coverage from surface measurements and regional information at global scale from satellites. Carbon flux information, anchored by inverse estimates from spaceborne Greenhouse Gas (GHG) concentrations, provides an important top‐down view of carbon emissions and sinks, but currently lacks global continuity at assessment and management scales (<100 km). Partial‐column data can help separate signals in the boundary layer from the overlying atmosphere, providing an opportunity to enhance surface sensitivity and bring flux resolution down from that of column‐integrated data (100–500 km). Based on a workshop held in September 2024, the carbon cycle community envisions a carbon observation system leveraging GHG partial columns in the lower and upper troposphere to weave together information across scales from surface and satellite EO data, and integration of top‐down/bottom‐up analyses to link process understanding to global assessment.

Parazoo, Nicholas C. [California Institute of Tech↗

Disentangling the chemistry and transport impacts of the quasi-biennial oscillation on stratospheric ozone

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical winds perturbs stratospheric ozone throughout much of the atmosphere via changes in transport of ozone and other trace gases, as well as via temperature changes, both of which alter ozone chemistry. Attributing these causes of QBO–ozone variability may provide insights into model-to-model differences that contribute to ozone simulation. Here we develop a novel metric of steady-state ozone (SSO) to separate these effects: SSO calculates the local steady-state response of ozone due to the changes in temperature, chemical species, and overhead ozone column; the response due to circulation change is presumed when SSO shows no response. It is applied to the nudged Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) with interactive ozone chemistry to demonstrate its validity. The E3SMv2 simulations nudged to reanalysis data produced reasonable wind and ozone patterns, especially in the tropics. Consistent with previous studies, we find clear demarcations with pressure. Ozone perturbations in the upper stratosphere (<6 hPa) are predicted by temperature changes; those between 6 and 20 hPa are predicted by NO y changes, and those in the lower stratosphere show no temperature or NO y response and are presumably driven by circulation changes. These results are important for diagnosing model-to-model discrepancy in QBO–ozone response and enhancing the reliability of ozone projections.

Xie, Jinbo [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory↗

Machine learning models inaccurately predict current and future high-latitude C balances

The high-latitude carbon (C) cycle is a key feedback to the global climate system, yet because of system complexity and data limitations, there is currently disagreement over whether the region is a source or sink of C. Recent advances in big data analytics and computing power have popularized the use of machine learning (ML) algorithms to upscale site measurements of ecosystem processes, and in some cases forecast the response of these processes to climate change. Due to data limitations, however, ML model predictions of these processes are almost never validated with independent datasets. To better understand and characterize the limitations of these methods, we develop an approach to independently evaluate ML upscaling and forecasting. We mimic data-driven upscaling and forecasting efforts by applying ML algorithms to different subsets of regional process-model simulation gridcells, and then test ML performance using the remaining gridcells. In this study, we simulate C fluxes and environmental data across Alaska using ecosys, a process-rich terrestrial ecosystem model, and then apply boosted regression tree ML algorithms to training data configurations that mirror and expand upon existing AmeriFLUX eddy-covariance data availability. We first show that a ML model trained using ecosys outputs from currently-available Alaska AmeriFLUX sites incorrectly predicts that Alaska is presently a modeled net C source. Increased spatial coverage of the training dataset improves ML predictions, halving the bias when 240 modeled sites are used instead of 15. However, even this more accurate ML model incorrectly predicts Alaska C fluxes under 21st century climate change because of changes in atmospheric CO 2 , litter inputs, and vegetation composition that have impacts on C fluxes which cannot be inferred from the training data. Our results provide key insights to future C flux upscaling efforts and expose the potential for inaccurate ML upscaling and forecasting of high-latitude C cycle dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

In situ recording of Mars soundscape

Abstract Before the Perseverance rover landing, the acoustic environment of Mars was unknown. Models predicted that: (1) atmospheric turbulence changes at centimetre scales or smaller at the point where molecular viscosity converts kinetic energy into heat 1 , (2) the speed of sound varies at the surface with frequency 2,3 and (3) high-frequency waves are strongly attenuated with distance in CO 2 (refs. 2–4 ). However, theoretical models were uncertain because of a lack of experimental data at low pressure and the difficulty to characterize turbulence or attenuation in a closed environment. Here, using Perseverance microphone recordings, we present the first characterization of the acoustic environment on Mars and pressure fluctuations in the audible range and beyond, from 20 Hz to 50 kHz. We find that atmospheric sounds extend measurements of pressure variations down to 1,000 times smaller scales than ever observed before, showing a dissipative regime extending over five orders of magnitude in energy. Using point sources of sound (Ingenuity rotorcraft, laser-induced sparks), we highlight two distinct values for the speed of sound that are about 10 m s −1 apart below and above 240 Hz, a unique characteristic of low-pressure CO 2 -dominated atmosphere. We also provide the acoustic attenuation with distance above 2 kHz, allowing us to explain the large contribution of the CO 2 vibrational relaxation in the audible range. These results establish a ground truth for the modelling of acoustic processes, which is critical for studies in atmospheres such as those of Mars and Venus.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Biomass Burning Emissions of Black Carbon over the Maritime Continent and ENSO Variability

Fire emissions from the Maritime Continent (MC) over the western tropical Pacific are strongly influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), posing various climate effects to the Earth system. Here, in this study, we show that the historical biomass burning emissions of black carbon (BC bb ) aerosol in the dry season from the MC are strengthened in El Niño years due to the dry conditions. The eastern Pacific type of El Niño exerts a stronger modulation in BC bb emissions over the MC region than the central Pacific type of El Niño. Based on simulations using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM), the impacts of increased BC bb emissions on ENSO variability and frequency are also investigated in this study. With BC bb emissions from the MC scaled up by a factor of 10, which enables the identification of climate response from the internal variability, the increased BC bb heats the local atmosphere and changes land–sea thermal contrast, which suppresses the westward transport of the eastern Pacific surface water. It leads to an increase in sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific, which further enhances ENSO variability and increases the frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events. This study highlights the potential role of BC bb emissions on extreme ENSO frequency, and this role may be increasingly important in the warming future with higher wildfire risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observations of greenhouse gases as climate indicators

Humans have significantly altered the energy balance of the Earth’s climate system mainly not only by extracting and burning fossil fuels but also by altering the biosphere and using halocarbons. The 3rd US National Climate Assessment pointed to a need for a system of indicators of climate and global change based on long-term data that could be used to support assessments and this led to the development of the National Climate Indicators System (NCIS). Here we identify a representative set of key atmospheric indicators of changes in atmospheric radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases (GHGs), and we evaluate atmospheric composition measurements, including non-CO<:sub>2 GHGs for use as climate change indicators in support of the US National Climate Assessment. GHG abundances and their changes over time can provide valuable information on the success of climate mitigation policies, as well as insights into possible carbon-climate feedback processes that may ultimately affect the success of those policies. To ensure that reliable information for assessing GHG emission changes can be provided on policy-relevant scales, expanded observational efforts are needed. Furthermore, the ability to detect trends resulting from changing emissions requires a commitment to supporting long-term observations. Long-term measurements of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and clouds and related climate indicators used with a dimming/brightening index could provide a foundation for quantifying forcing and its attribution and reducing error in existing indicators that do not account for complicated cloud processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-term leaf C:N ratio change under elevated CO 2 and nitrogen deposition in China: Evidence from observations and process-based modeling

Climate change, elevating atmosphere CO 2 (eCO 2 ) and increased nitrogen deposition (iNDEP) are altering the biogeochemical interactions between plants, microbes and soils, which further modify plant leaf carbon-nitrogen (C:N) stoichiometry and their carbon assimilation capability. Many field experiments have observed large sensitivity of leaf C:N ratio to eCO 2 and iNDEP. However, the large-scale pattern of this sensitivity is still unclear, because eCO 2 and iNDEP drive leaf C:N ratio toward opposite directions, which are further compounded by the complex processes of nitrogen acquisition and plant-and-microbial nitrogen competition. Here, we attempt to map the leaf C:N ratio spatial variation in the past 5 decades in China with a combination of data-driven model and process-based modeling. These two approaches showed consistent results. Over different regions, we found that leaf C:N ratio had significant but uneven changes between 2 time periods (1960-1989 and 1990-2015): a 5% ± 8% increase for temperate grasslands in northern China, a 3% ± 6% increase for boreal grasslands in western China, and by contrast, a 7% ± 6% decrease for temperate forests in southern China, and a 3% ± 5% decrease for boreal forests in northeastern China. Additionally, the structural equation models indicated that the leaf C:N change was sensitive to ΔNDEP, ΔCO 2 and ΔMAT rather than ΔMAP and ecosystem types. In this work, process-based modeling suggested that iNDEP was the main source of soil mineral nitrogen change, dominating leaf C:N ratio change in most areas in China, while eCO 2 led to leaf C:N ratio increase in low iNDEP area. This study also indicates that the long-term leaf C:N ratio acclimation was dominated by climate constraint, especially temperature, but was constrained by soil N availability over decade scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗