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Analysis of terrestrial conditions and dynamics

Land spectral reflectance properties for selected locations, including the Goddard Space Flight Center, the Wallops Flight Facility, a MLA test site in Cambridge, Maryland, and an acid test site in Burlington, Vermont, were measured. Methods to simulate the bidirectional reflectance properties of vegetated landscapes and a data base for spatial resolution were developed. North American vegetation patterns observed with the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer were assessed. Data and methods needed to model large-scale vegetation activity with remotely sensed observations and climate data were compiled.

Goward, S. N.

Interannual Variations and Trends in Global Land Surface Phenology Derived from Enhanced Vegetation Index During 1982-2010

Land swiace phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstmted to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This srudy detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examIned across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and OSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interarmual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative OSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3 decades. OGI mainly showed late trends in the Southern Hemisphere of Africa while GSL was reversed from reduced GSL trends (1982-1999) to prolonged trends (2000-2010). In Australia, GSL exhibited considerable interannual variation, but the consistent trend lacked presence in most regions. Finally, the proportion of pixels with significant trends was less than I% in most of climate regions although it could be as large as 10%.

remote sensing

Fuel Cell Model Validation with Power Module Test Data

The AES Modular Power Systems (AMPS) Fuel Cell team at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has created a Microsoft Excel model of a regenerative fuel cell (RFC) system for potential lunar and Martian applications. Due to some limitations of this model, including the ability to predict transient effects in the thermal and fluidic performance of the system, a system-level transient thermal/fluids model was desired. GT-SUITE is a transient multi-physics simulation tool that is popular in the automotive industry and has a built-in template for proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells. However, terrestrial fuel cells used in the automotive industry vary significantly from aerospace fuel cells. A validation effort was undertaken to compare GT SUITE model results to actual data collected during the 2015 AMPS (Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Modular Power Systems) Power Module Demonstration in which the AMPS team used a PEM fuel cell system to power a 478 kilogram rover assembly at the Dunes test site located at GRC. The purpose of the model was to evaluate the efficacy of using GT SUITE to model a non-flow through PEM fuel cell system. The validation effort examined electrochemical performance including fuel cell stack voltage and power supplied, the thermal performance of the stack namely stack temperature and heat rejection rates, and the fluidic performance of the system including pressures, reactant consumption, and water production rates.

Model Validation

Moss Tolerance of Deep Space-Like Ionizing Radiation, Singular or Combined With Spaceflight Microgravity-Preparation for the BRIC-27 Experiment to the ISS

Understanding how terrestrial life perceives and tolerates deep space environments is essential to advancing human space exploration missions and searching for life beyond our solar system. Throughout evolution moss adapted to living in extreme environments from the edge of habitability. Moss inhabits areas with high UVB/UVC photon levels such as polar regions subject to ozone holes, high elevation mountain environments, and sites with elevated ionizing particle levels such as those found at nuclear plant accident sites, atomic bomb test sites or radioactive element-rich regions. We investigate if moss tolerance of ionizing radiation encounter terrestrially extends to resistance to deep space ionizing radiation. We exposed moss to high energy ion beams simulating Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCRSim) and Solar Particle Event (SPESim) (NSRL, BNL) that permeate deep space, and moss was unharmed. We also exposed moss to high doses of gamma rays as released in astrophysical events, and moss survived absorption of extremely high doses. Next, we ask if moss tolerance of deep space-like ionizing radiation observed terrestrially differs from that in other deep space environments. In the upcoming BRIC-27 spaceflight experiment we will sequentially expose Antarctic moss C.purpureus to GCRSim and SPESim followed by exposure to spaceflight microgravity and compare gene expression profiles in deep space-like ionizing radiation, singular or combined with spaceflight microgravity. Additionally, we will compare gene expression profiles in spaceflight microgravity, singular or combined with deep space-like ionizing radiation. Hence, BRIC-27 will advance our understanding of the combined effects of both deep space ionizing radiation and microgravity, which may have different and more profound effects on plant physiology and performance than each condition separately.

Agata Klaudia Zupanska

Fluid-Structure Interaction Simulations of the ASPIRE SR01 Supersonic Parachute

High-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations have so far only played exploratory and supporting roles in the study and qualification of parachutes for planetary entry. The last few years have seen the maturation of coupled computational methods that are capable of modeling the complex fluid-structure interactions between a parachute canopy and the supersonic flow in the wake of an entry vehicle in flight conditions. One of the primary goals of these methods is to predict the peak opening load experienced by the parachute during inflation. The Launch, Ascent, and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA)team is developing efficient, high-fidelity numerical methods to perform such challenging fluid-structure interaction simulations. A loose coupling approach is used to advance the solutions of a Cartesian ghost cell immersed boundary method CFD solver and a finite element computational structural dynamics (CSD) solver in space and time. The coupled solver is employed to simulate the ASPIRE SR01 flight test, where a build-to-print version of the Mars Science Laboratory parachute was inflated in supersonic conditions in the upper terrestrial atmosphere. The simulations conducted in the current paper predict a peak opening load that is within 10% of that from the flight test. Grid convergence with respect to the volume and structural domains is demonstrated, and less than 1% variation in the peak opening load is predicted between all grid resolutions.

ARMD

2007 Lunar Regolith Simulant Workshop Overview

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) vision has as a cornerstone, the establishment of an Outpost on the Moon. This Lunar Outpost will eventually provide the necessary planning, technology development, and training for a manned mission to Mars in the future. As part of the overall activity, NASA is conducting Earth-based research and advancing technologies to a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6 maturity under the Exploration Technology Development Program that will be incorporated into the Constellation Project as well as other projects. All aspects of the Lunar environment, including the Lunar regolith and its properties, are important in understanding the long-term impacts to hardware, scientific instruments, and humans prior to returning to the Moon and living on the Moon. With the goal of reducing risk to humans and hardware and increasing mission success on the Lunar surface, it is vital that terrestrial investigations including both development and verification testing have access to Lunar-like environments. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is supporting this endeavor by developing, characterizing, and producing Lunar simulants in addition to analyzing existing simulants for appropriate applications. A Lunar Regolith Simulant Workshop was conducted by MSFC in Huntsville, Alabama, in October 2007. The purpose of the Workshop was to bring together simulant developers, simulant users, and program and project managers from ETDP and Constellation with the goals of understanding users' simulant needs and their applications. A status of current simulant developments such as the JSC-1A (Mare Type Simulant) and the NASA/U.S. Geological Survey Lunar Highlands-Type Pilot Simulant (NU-LHT-1 M) was provided. The method for evaluating simulants, performed via Figures of Merit (FoMs) algorithms, was presented and a demonstration was provided. The four FoM properties currently being assessed are: size, shape, density, and composition. Some of the Workshop findings include: simulant developers must understand simulant users' needs and applications; higher fidelity simulants are needed and needed in larger quantities now; simulants must be characterized to allow "apples-to-apples" comparison of test results; simulant users should confer with simulant experts to assist them in the selection of simulants; safety precautions should be taken in the handling and use of simulants; shipping, storing, and preparation of simulants have important implications; and most importantly, close communications among the simulant community must be maintained and will be continued via telecoms, meetings, and an annual Lunar Regolith Simulant Workshop.

McLemore, Carole A.

2007 Lunar Regolith Simulant Workshop Overview

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) vision has as a cornerstone, the establishment of an Outpost on the Moon. This Lunar Outpost will eventually provide the necessary planning, technology development, and training for a manned mission to Mars in the future. As part of the overall activity, NASA is conducting Earth-based research and advancing technologies to a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6 maturity under the Exploration Technology Development Program that will be incorporated into the Constellation Project as well as other projects. All aspects of the Lunar environment, including the Lunar regolith and its properties, are important in understanding the long-term impacts to hardware, scientific instruments, and humans prior to returning to the Moon and living on the Moon. With the goal of reducing risk to humans and hardware and increasing mission success on the Lunar surface, it is vital that terrestrial investigations including both development and verification testing have access to Lunar-like environments. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is supporting this endeavor by developing, characterizing, and producing Lunar simulants in addition to analyzing existing simulants for appropriate applications. A Lunar Regolith Simulant Workshop was conducted by MSFC in Huntsville, Alabama, in October 2007. The purpose of the Workshop was to bring together simulant developers, simulant users, and program and project managers from ETDP and Constellation with the goals of understanding users' simulant needs and their applications. A status of current simulant developments such as the JSC-1A (Mare Type Simulant) and the NASA/U.S. Geological Survey Lunar Highlands-Type Pilot Simulant (NU-LHT-1M) was provided. The method for evaluating simulants, performed via Figures of Merit (FoMs) algorithms, was presented and a demonstration was provided. The four FoM properties currently being assessed are: size, shape, density, and composition. Some of the Workshop findings include: simulant developers must understand simulant users' needs and applications; higher fidelity simulants are needed and needed in larger quantities now; simulants must be characterized to allow "apples-to-apples" comparison of test results; simulant users should confer with simulant experts to assist them in the selection of simulants; safety precautions should be taken in the handling and use of simulants; shipping, storing, and preparation of simulants have important implications; and most importantly, close communications among the simulant community must be maintained and will be continued via telecoms, meetings, and an annual Lunar Regolith Simulant Workshop.

McLemore, Carole A.

Dense nuclear matter equation of state from heavy-ion collisions

The nuclear equation of state (EOS) is at the center of numerous theoretical and experimental efforts in nuclear physics. With advances in microscopic theories for nuclear interactions, the availability of experiments probing nuclear matter under conditions not reached before, endeavors to develop sophisticated and reliable transport simulations to interpret these experiments, and the advent of multi-messenger astronomy, the next decade will bring new opportunities for determining the nuclear matter EOS, elucidating its dependence on density, temperature, and isospin asymmetry. Among controlled terrestrial experiments, collisions of heavy nuclei at intermediate beam energies (from a few tens of MeV/nucleon to about 25 GeV/nucleon in the fixed-target frame) probe the widest ranges of baryon density and temperature, enabling studies of nuclear matter from a few tenths to about 5 times the nuclear saturation density and for temperatures from a few to well above a hundred MeV, respectively. Collisions of neutron-rich isotopes further bring the opportunity to probe effects due to the isospin asymmetry. However, capitalizing on the enormous scientific effort aimed at uncovering the dense nuclear matter EOS, both at RHIC and at FRIB as well as at other international facilities, depends on the continued development of state-of-the-art hadronic transport simulations. Furthermore, this white paper highlights the essential role that heavy-ion collision experiments and hadronic transport simulations play in understanding strong interactions in dense nuclear matter, with an emphasis on how these efforts can be used together with microscopic approaches and neutron star studies to uncover the nuclear EOS.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

CNES Large Scale SWOT Simulator: User's Tutorial for Terrestrial Surface Water Applications

The CNES Large Scale SWOT Hydrology Simulator creates proxy SWOT water surface elevations (WSE). A large portion of the effort required to run the CNES simulator is upfront in creating the simulator input. This tutorial describes the steps to create the simulator input and then run the CNES simulator. Since many applications will utilize a time series of proxy SWOT WSE, a short description of that process is included in the Appendix for advanced users.

Hydrology

Solar dynamic power for the Space Station

This paper describes a computer code which provides a significant advance in the systems analysis capabilities of solar dynamic power modules. While the code can be used to advantage in the preliminary analysis of terrestrial solar dynamic modules its real value lies in the adaptions which make it particularly useful for the conceptualization of optimized power modules for space applications. In particular, as illustrated in the paper, the code can be used to establish optimum values of concentrator diameter, concentrator surface roughness, concentrator rim angle and receiver aperture corresponding to the main heat cycle options - Organic Rankine and Brayton - and for certain receiver design options. The code can also be used to establish system sizing margins to account for the loss of reflectivity in orbit or the seasonal variation of insolation. By the simulation of the interactions among the major components of a solar dynamic module and through simplified formulations of the major thermal-optic-thermodynamic interactions the code adds a powerful, efficient and economic analytical tool to the repertory of techniques available for the design of advanced space power systems.

Archer, J. S.

Study on the application of NASA energy management techniques for control of a terrestrial solar water heating system

This paper addresses the potential for enhanced solar system performance through sophisticated control of the collector loop flow rate. Computer simulations utilizing the TRNSYS solar energy program were performed to study the relative effect on system performance of eight specific control algorithms. Six of these control algorithms are of the proportional type: two are concave exponentials, two are simple linear functions, and two are convex exponentials. These six functions are typical of what might be expected from future, more advanced, controllers. The other two algorithms are of the on/off type and are thus typical of existing control devices. Results of extensive computer simulations utilizing actual weather data indicate that proportional control does not significantly improve system performance. However, it is shown that thermal stratification in the liquid storage tank may significantly improve performance.

Swanson, T. D.

Estimating Terrestrial Snow Mass via Multi-sensor Assimilation of Synthetic AMSR-E Brightness Temperature Spectral Differences and Synthetic GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Retrievals

This study explores multi-sensor data assimilation (DA) using synthetic Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) passive microwave brightness temperature spectral differences (∆T(B)) and synthetic Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage (TWS) retrievals to improve estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE), subsurface water storage, and TWS across snow-covered terrain. Results show that multi-sensor DA improves SWE estimates by reducing the RMSE by 14.1% relative to a model-only simulation. Multi-sensor assimilation also yields the smallest TWS RMSE (reduced by 13.0% relative to a model-only simulation). However, multi-sensor DA does not always yield complementary updates, and can sometimes lead to conflicting changes to SWE, where the assimilation of synthetic ∆T(b) generates positive SWE increments while the assimilation of synthetic TWS removes SWE, which can ultimately degrade the posterior SWE estimates. This synthetic experiment provides useful insight for future DA experiments using real-world AMSR-E/AMSR-2 ∆T(b) observations and GRACE/GRACE-FO TWS retrievals to better characterize terrestrial freshwater storage across regional scales.

Jing Wang

Application of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer vegetation index to study atmosphere-biosphere exchange of CO2

Normalized difference vegetation indices derived from radiances measured by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer were used to prescribe the phasing of terrestrial photosynthesis. The satellite data were combined with field data on soil respiration and a global map of net primary productivity to obtain the seasonal exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere. The monthly fluxes of CO2 thus obtained were employed as source/sink functions in a global three-dimensional atmospheric tracer transport model to simulate the annual oscillations of CO2 in the atmosphere. The results demonstrate that satellite data of high spatial and temporal resolution can be used to provide quantitative information about seasonal and longer-term variations of photosynthetic activity on a global scale.

Fung, I. Y.

Ethane in Planetary and Cometary Atmospheres: Transmittance and Fluorescence Models of the nu7 Band at 3.3 Micrometers

Ethane and other hydrocarbon gases have strong rovibrational transitions in the 3.3 micron spectral region owing to C-H, CH2, and CH3 vibrational modes, making this spectral region prime for searching possible biomarker gases in extraterrestrial atmospheres (e.g., Mars, exoplanets) and organic molecules in comets. However, removing ethane spectral signatures from high-resolution terrestrial transmittance spectra has been imperfect because existing quantum mechanical models have been unable to reproduce the observed spectra with sufficient accuracy. To redress this problem, we constructed a line-by-line model for the n7 band of ethane (C2H6) and applied it to compute telluric transmittances and cometary fluorescence efficiencies. Our model considers accurate spectral parameters, vibration-rotation interactions, and a functional characterization of the torsional hot band. We integrated the new band model into an advanced radiative transfer code for synthesizing the terrestrial atmosphere (LBLRTM), achieving excellent agreement with transmittance data recorded against Mars using three different instruments located in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The retrieved ethane abundances demonstrate the strong hemispheric asymmetry noted in prior surveys of volatile hydrocarbons. We also retrieved sensitive limits for the abundance of ethane on Mars. The most critical validation of the model was obtained by comparing simulations of C2H6 fluorescent emission with spectra of three hydrocarbon-rich comets: C/2004 Q2 (Machholz), 8P/Tuttle, and C/2007 W1 (Boattini). The new model accurately describes the complex emission morphology of the nu7 band at low rotational temperatures and greatly increases the confidence of the retrieved production rates (and rotational temperatures) with respect to previously available fluorescence models.

Villanueva, G. L.

Analysis of a 100-W Regenerative Fuel Cell Demonstration

A 100-W regenerative fuel cell (RFC) demonstration was successfully completed at the NASA Glenn Research Center on December 11, 2014. This effort was funded by Advanced Space Power Systems milestone and represented the first demonstration of passive laboratory-scale stacks arranged as an RFC, consisting of a non-flow-through fuel cell and a static-feed electrolyzer. Once developed, these stacks present the potential to minimize system mass, volume, and parasitic power in comparison to existing terrestrial electrochemical systems and nonnuclear power generation options. Testing involved the fuel cell powering a simulated load then recycling fuel cell product water by subsequently electrolyzing it to regenerate hydrogen and oxygen gases for fuel cell operations. A total of five cycles were completed over a 2-week period, yielding cell voltage data for stack performance and quality measures for regenerated reactants. Overall, round-trip efficiency was calculated to be 47.4 percent. Gas crossover was observed in electrolyzer gas products, as residual gas analysis showed 1.1 percent hydrogen in oxygen and 0.4 percent oxygen in hydrogen. Fuel cell product water was determined to be more acidic and conductive and have a higher fluoride content when compared to deionized water.

fuel cell

Cross-Disciplinarity in the Advance of Antarctic Ecosystem Research

The biodiversity, ecosystem services and climate variability of the Antarctic continent, and the Southern Ocean are major components of the whole Earth system. Antarctic ecosystems are driven more strongly by the physical environment than many other marine and terrestrial ecosystems. As a consequence, to understand ecological functioning, cross-disciplinary studies are especially important in Antarctic research. The conceptual study presented here is based on a workshop initiated by the Research Programme Antarctic Thresholds - Ecosystem Resilience and Adaption of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, which focused on challenges in identifying and applying cross-disciplinary approaches in the Antarctic. Novel ideas, and first steps in their implementation, were clustered into eight themes, ranging from scale problems, risk maps, organism and ecosystem responses to multiple environmental changes, to evolutionary processes. Scaling models and data across different spatial and temporal scales were identified as an overarching challenge. Approaches to bridge gaps in the research programmes included multi-disciplinary monitoring, linking biomolecular findings and simulated physical environments, as well as integrative ecological modelling. New strategies in academic education are proposed. The results of advanced cross-disciplinary approaches can contribute significantly to our knowledge of ecosystem functioning, the consequences of climate change, and to global assessments that ultimately benefit humankind.

Scaling

A Combined Computational, Experimental, and Technology Development Approach to In-Space Laser Manufacturing Maturation at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center

In-space manufacturing (ISM) is emerging as a field vital to continued access and capabilities in the space environment. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is advancing the frontier of in-space laser manufacturing (ISLM) techniques through work initially focused on maturing laser beam welding (LBW) and laser forming (LF) for use in space. Such techniques proffer the ability to assemble and join structures in space from sheet metal or other stock – extant satellites, in situ resource utilization of Lunar regolith, etc. – by forming to desired shapes and then joining via in-space welding (ISW). ISLM processes are useful for assembly, joining, modification, and repair of structures in free space and on the Lunar surface such as large observatories, antennas, trusses, blast/thermal/radiation shields, pressure vessels, and more. However, these techniques are not yet qualified & certified (Q&C) for regular application in space. It would be prohibitively expensive, laborious, and time-consuming to perform Q&C via traditional experimental approaches as data collection & experimentation in space is resource-intensive. As such, benchmark experiments and focused, properly instrumented technology demonstration efforts in space can collect sufficient data that – when combined with verified computational models in an integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) approach – can validate ICME tools capable of translating more readily obtained ground data to in-space, in situ, computationally informed Q&C of ISLM techniques. Several ISLM projects at MSFC are obtaining the data required to validate ICME tools through both ground and flight experiments. A parabolic flight experiment of LBW under vacuum is manifested for August 2024, including both microgravity and Lunar gravity profiles. This collaboration with the Ohio State University is investigating common aerospace alloys such as 316L stainless steel, 2219 aluminum alloy, and Ti64 titanium alloy. In situ data collection includes videography, thermography, and reference thermocouples to build a thermal model of the welds. This will elucidate the relevant physics when combined with post-flight microstructural examination and mechanical testing. MSFC is also progressing towards a suborbital flight experiment of LBW under vacuum, which could provide reams of data on ISW during sustained, high-quality reduced gravity. The effect of combined thermal (cryogenic and high-temperature) and vacuum exposure on both LBW (NASA-funded) and LF (DARPA-funded) is being investigated through ground experiments. In addition to the copious data collected during these ground experiments, ruggedization of LBW hardware will also be pursued. The datasets from these experiments will be used to validate computational models which will inform future ISLM efforts in an ICME framework. A variety of techniques across lengths scales, from CALPHAD-driven thermodynamics & kinetics to phase field modeling of solidification to kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of grain evolution at the mesoscale, will be employed to accelerate the infusion and eventual Q&C of LBW and LF for use in space. The development of data-driven surrogate models to bridge ground to flight experiments and thereby reduce the need for resource-intensive experiments in space will also be investigated. These ICME techniques, surrogate models, and datasets from ground testing can also be employed to advance manufacturing in terrestrial environments.

in-space welding

Dynamical Forecasts of Tropical Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes with the NASA S2S Retrospective Forecast System

Recent advances in the ability to predict climate anomalies at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales allow us to explore the possibility of forecasting carbon flux anomalies. Although carbon flux forecasting is a relatively new concept, it is potentially beneficial as it can help us better understand global and regional land-atmosphere carbon feedbacks associated with climate variations and can provide guidance for future field mission design. Here we evaluate the skill of forecasted terrestrial carbon anomalies generated from meteorological anomalies produced with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) S2S forecast system. We focus here on three representative time periods (the most recent 2015-2016 El Nino, 2011 La Nina, and 2014 as a neutral year), with each corresponding 9-month forecast comprising four ensemble members initialized in the preceding December. The meteorological variables produced by the GMAO forecast system were bias-corrected using a climatology derived from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) before being used to drive a suite of offline simulations with the NASA Catchment-CN terrestrial biosphere model, a model that computes water-energy-carbon dynamics. Forecasts are evaluated by comparing against satellite-driven estimates of gross primary production (GPP) and inverse model estimates of net carbon flux that incorporate satellite carbon dioxide measurements. We find that the restrospectively predicted carbon fluxes in the tropics reasonably reproduce the signs and magnitudes of the observed anomalies between the 2015-2016 El Nino and the 2011 La Nina for both net flux and GPP. For instance, for the El Nino period, the magnitude of the forecasted negative GPP anomaly in the South American tropics (which undergoes anomalously warm and dry conditions) agrees with the observed GPP anomaly at leads of up to three or four months. Overall, this study demonstrates potential skill in the forecast of biospheric carbon fluxes a few months in advance, a capability that could contribute to attribution studies focusing on carbon flux variations and support innovative observation strategies in the future.

Lee, Eunjee