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NASA NTRS2021

Precipitable water vapor over oceans from the Maritime Aerosol Network: Evaluation of global models and satellite products under clear sky conditions

We present results from an evaluation of precipitable water vapor (W) over remote oceanic areas as derived from global reanalysis models and from satellites against observations from the Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) for cloudless skies during the period of 2004–2017. They cover polar, mid latitude and tropical oceanic regions and represent a first effort to use MAN observations for such evaluation. The global reanalysis model products evaluated in this study are from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis (ERA I), and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) model. The satellite products evaluated are from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Polarization and Directionality of the Earth's Reflectances (POLDER), the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME-2), the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and the Atmospheric Infra-red Sounder (AIRS). Satellite retrievals of W are based on the attenuation of solar reflected light by water vapor absorption bands, except those from AIRS that rely on brightness temperature measurements. A very good agreement is observed between the model estimates and MAN, with mean differences of ~5% and standard deviations of ~15%. These results are within the uncertainties associated with the models and the measurements, indicating the skill of the reanalysis models to estimate W over oceans under clear sky conditions. Mean differences of W between the satellite and MAN products are ~11, 6.7, 12, −7, and 3% for MODIS, POLDER, GOME-2, SCIAMACHY and AIRS respectively, while their standard deviations are 31, 29, 28, 20 and 17%. These differences reveal the need to address inconsistencies among different satellite sensors and ground-based measurements to reduce the uncertainties associated with the retrievals.

Daniel Pérez-Ramírez↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty in Observational Estimates of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect and Forcing

Aerosols continue to be responsible for the largest uncertainty in determining the anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate. To both reconcile the large range in satellite-based estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE, the direct interaction with solar radiation by all aerosols) and to optimize the design of future observing systems, we build a framework for assessing uncertainty in aerosol DRE and the aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF, the radiative effect of just anthropogenic aerosols, RF_ari). Shortwave aerosol radiative kernels (Jacobians) were derived using the MERRA-2 reanalysis data. These radiative kernels are used to compute a lower-bound on the systematic uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol DRE/DRF by making the optimistic assumption that global aerosol observations can be made with the accuracy found in the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer retrievals. The total uncertainty is shown to be dominated by contributions from the aerosol single scattering albedo uncertainty. These uncertainty estimates were compared to a literature survey of mostly satellite-based aerosol DRE/DRF values. Comparisons to previous studies reveal that most have significantly underestimated the aerosol DRE uncertainty. Past estimates of the aerosol DRF uncertainty are smaller (on average) than our optimistic observational estimates, including the aerosol DRF uncertainty given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5).

Tyler James Thorsen↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty in Observational Estimates of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect and Forcing

Tyler James Thorsen↗

NASA NTRS2021

Effect of volcanic emissions on clouds during the 2008 and 2018 Kilauea degassing events

Volcanic eruptions in otherwise clean environments are “natural experiments” wherein the effects of aerosol emissions on clouds and climate can be partitioned from meteorological variability and anthropogenic activities. In this work, we combined satellite retrievals, reanalysis products, and atmospheric modeling to analyze the mechanisms of aerosol–cloud interactions during two degassing events at the Kilauea volcano in 2008 and 2018. The eruptive nature of the 2008 and 2018 degassing events was distinct from long-term volcanic activity for Kilauea. Although previous studies assessed the modulation of cloud properties from the 2008 event, this is the first time such an analysis has been reported for the 2018 event and that multiple degassing events have been analyzed and compared at this location. Both events resulted in significant changes in cloud effective radius and cloud droplet number concentration that were decoupled from local meteorology and in line with an enhanced cloud albedo. However, it is likely that the effects of volcanic emissions on liquid water path and cloud fraction were largely offset by meteorological variability. Comparison of cloud anomalies between the two events suggested a threshold response of aerosol–cloud interactions to overcome meteorological effects, largely controlled by aerosol loading. In both events, the ingestion of aerosols within convective parcels enhanced the detrainment of condensate in the upper troposphere, resulting in deeper clouds than observed under pristine conditions. Accounting for ice nucleation on ash particles led to enhanced ice crystal concentrations at cirrus levels and a slight decrease in ice water content, improving the correlation of the model results with the satellite retrievals. Overall, aerosol loading, plume characteristics, and meteorology contributed to changes in cloud properties during the Kilauea degassing events.

Katherine H. Breen↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Sensitivity of Simulated Ocean Biogeochemistry to Forcing Fields Derived from NCEP and MERRA Reanalysis Products

Ocean biogeochemistry models are typically forced by atmospheric and oceanic data derived from reanalysis products. For the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) such reanalysis forcing fields include: surface wind stress, sea surface temperature, ice distributions, shortwave radiation, surface wind speeds and surface atmospheric pressure. Additionally, proper computation of ocean irradiance requires reanalysis products of relative humidity and precipitable water (in addition to aerosol and cloud information which is derived from satellite data). The question posed here is, does the choice of reanalysis products make a difference in the representation of ocean biology and biogeochemistry? NOBM was forced by NCEP and MERRA reanalysis products for the period 2002-2009. We find that in 2009 global distributions and abundances of biological variables (total chlorophyll and nutrients) and carbon (dissolved inorganic and organic carbon and surface pCO2) were similar between the two different forcing fields. Global statistical comparisons with satellite and in situ data also showed negligible differences.

Gregg, Watson↗

NASA NTRS2017

Aerosol EnKF at GMAO

In the GEOS near real-time system, as well as in MERRA-2 which is the latest reanalysis produced at NASAs Global Modeling and Assimilation Office(GMAO), the assimilation of aerosol observations is performed by means of a so-called analysis splitting method. In line with the transition of the GEOS meteorological data assimilation system to a hybrid Ensemble-Variational formulation, we are updating the aerosol component of our assimilation system to an ensemble square root filter(EnSRF; Whitaker and Hamill (2002)) type of scheme.We present a summary of our preliminary results of the assimilation of column integrated aerosol observations (Aerosol Optical Depth; AOD) using an Ensemble Square Root Filters (EnSRF) scheme and the ensemble members produced routinely by the meteorological assimilation.

MERRA-2 EnSRF↗

NASA NTRS2006

Satellite-based Assessment of Global Warm Cloud Properties Associated with Aerosols, Atmospheric Stability, and Diurnal Cycle

This study examines variability in marine low cloud properties derived from semi-global observations by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, as linked to the aerosol index (AI) and lower-tropospheric stability (LTS). AI is derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (Terra MODIS) sensor and the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transportation (GOCART) model, and is used to represent column-integrated aerosol concentrations. LTS is derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, and represents the background thermodynamic environment in which the clouds form. Global statistics reveal that cloud droplet size tends to be smallest in polluted (high-AI) and strong inversion (high-LTS) environments. Statistical quantification shows that cloud droplet size is better correlated with AI than it is with LTS. Simultaneously, the cloud liquid water path (CLWP) tends to decrease as AI increases. This correlation does not support the hypothesis or assumption that constant or increased CLWP is associated with high aerosol concentrations. Global variability in corrected cloud albedo (CCA), the product of cloud optical depth and cloud fraction, is very well explained by LTS, while both AI and LTS are needed to explain local variability in CCA. Most of the local correlations between AI and cloud properties are similar to the results from the global statistics, while weak anomalous aerosol-cloud correlations appear locally in the regions where simultaneous high (low) AI and low (high) LTS compensate each other. Daytime diurnal cycles explain additional variability in cloud properties. CCA has the largest diurnal cycle in high-LTS regions. Cloud droplet size and CLWP have weak diurnal cycles that differ between clean and polluted environments. The combined results suggest that investigations of marine low cloud radiative forcing and its relationship to hypothesized aerosol indirect effects must consider the combined effects of aerosols, thermodynamics, and the diurnal cycle.

Matsui, Toshihisa↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assimilation of Aerosol Observations in the NASA GEOS Model

In the GEOS near real-time system, as well as in MERRA-2 which is the latest reanalysis produced at NASA's Global Modeling Assimilation Office (GMAO), the assimilation of aerosol observations is performed by means of a so-called analysis splitting method. The prognostic model is based on the GEOS model radiatively coupled to GOCART aerosol module and includes assimilation of bias-corrected Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) at 550 nm from various space-based remote sensing platforms. In line with the transition of the GEOS meteorological data assimilation system to a hybrid Ensemble-Variational formulation, we are updating the aerosol component of our assimilation system to a variational ensemble type of scheme. In this talk we will examine the impact of replacing the current analysis splitting scheme with this new approach. Starting with the assimilation of satellite based single-channel retrievals; we will discuss the impact of this aerosol data assimilation technique on the 3D aerosol distributions by means of innovation statistics and verification against independent datasets such as the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and surface PM2.5. We will also present preliminary results related to the introduction of new aerosol data types in GEOS, including multi-spectral AOD retrievals.

AERONET↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Representation of Aerosols in GMAO’s Newest Reanalyses

Over the past few years, NASA’s Global Modelling and Assimilation Office has been working on the configuration and production of three new reanalysis products, GEOS-IT, GiOcean, and MERRA-21C. GEOS-IT, or the Goddard Earth Observing System for Instrument Teams, is a 3D variational data assimilation system that runs in a near real time framework however retrospectively provides data back through 1998 to deliver a consistent view of the Earth-atmosphere system for the production of observational NASA products. Retrospective production for GEOS-IT is complete and the meteorology has since been used to produce the one way weakly coupled GiOcean reanalysis. Due to differences in the atmospheric model, particularly related to scavenging, aerosols are not identical in GEOS-IT and GiOcean. MERRA-21C, or the Modern Era Restrospective analysis for Research and Applications in the 21st century, is a hybrid 4D ensemble variational system at a finer horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees. Although different in their intended use, and therefore configuration, these systems prominently feature coupling between meteorology and aerosols. The differences and similarities in the aerosol configuration between the three systems will be discussed, covering biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions as well as observations used for the assimilation of aerosol optical depth. A large emphasis will be placed on the version of the underlying aerosol module, GOCART, which underwent a complete refactoring and the addition of radiatively active brown carbon between GEOS-IT and MERRA-21C. Independent observations will be used to evaluate the performance of aerosols in both reanalyses, focusing on aerosol optical depth, surface particulate matter, and vertical profiles of aerosol backscatter.

Allison Collow↗

NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of 10‐m Wind Speed From ISD Meteorological Stations and the MERRA‐2 Reanalysis: Impacts on Dust Emission in the Arabian Peninsula

Mineral dust is one of the most important aerosols when studying the radiative balance and climate of the planet. There are different dust emission schemes utilized by the atmospheric modeling communities, many of which disagree on basic output quantities such as mass of dust emitted and distribution of mass among size bins. In this work, we examined mineral dust emission from a leading model scheme, the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART), as utilized in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) Reanalysis and compared it to dust emissions calculated using wind measurements from ground based weather stations located in the Arabian Peninsula that are included in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) integrated surface database (ISD). An intercomparison of 10-m wind speed is shown for the Arabian Peninsula region, differences of the observed and modeled wind field are quantified, and impacts of differences on dust emissions are calculated. This analysis shows 10-m winds in the ISD were generally lower than MERRA-2 winds, which propagated to dust emissions errors. Our estimate of one of the most significant mass impacts in dust emission is 0.178 Tg/year/grid box with a percent change of over 200% to the recalculated dust emissions from MERRA-2. These differences in wind speed propagated to a difference in dust mass emitted by the use of a static source function which aids in scaling the mass emitted by the availability of dust in each grid. Additionally, the magnitude of these differences varies seasonally.

winds↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing A Continuous Ozone Record Through the SAGE and Aura Missions With NASA Reanalysis Products

During the last quarter of the 20th century, the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) missions were crucial in monitoring the loss and the subsequent recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. Due to the employed solar occultation and self-calibration method, the SAGE monitors have produced stable data throughout the lifetime of each instrument. However, over ten years passed between the end of the SAGE II and SAGE III/M3M missions in 2005 and the launch of SAGE III/ISS instrument in 2017, leaving a gap in the data that much be bridged in order to assess the trends in the ozone record. Reanalysis products, such as the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), are attractive candidates for trend analysis due to the statistically optimized combination of multiple observing systems and the regular temporal and spatial coverage. In this study, we explore using the SAGE records to develop a stable reanalysis data product, suitable for trend analysis, from the start of the SAGE II record in 1984 through the present. Changes in the assimilated observation systems can introduce discontinuities within the MERRA-2 ozone record, such as in 2004 when the MERRA-2 system shifted from assimilating ozone retrievals collected by SBUV instruments to those collected by instruments onboard the Aura satellite. We follow the radiative transfer procedure outlined by Wargan et al. (2018) to address discontinuities in the MERRA-2 ozone dataset at the 2004 transition and during the Aura record. SAGE II ozone profiles are used to address discontinuities in upper stratospheric ozone associated with changes in the MERRA-2 meteorological observing system in 1998 and 1995. Lastly, we will use the resulting bias-corrected MERRA-2 ozone fields to assess the relative performance of the data from different SAGE sensors.

SAGE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing A Continuous Ozone Record Through the SAGE and Aura Missions With NASA Reanalysis Products

During the last quarter of the 20th century, the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) missions were crucial in monitoring the loss and subsequent recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. Due to the employed solar occultation and self-calibration method, the SAGE monitors have produced stable data throughout the lifetime of each instrument. However, over ten years passed between the end of the SAGE II and SAGE III/M3M missions in 2005 and the launch of SAGE III/ISS instrument in 2017, leaving a gap in the data that must be bridged in order to assess trends in the ozone record. The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis product, with output available starting in 1980, is an attractive candidate for trend analysis due to the statistically optimized combination of multiple observing systems and the regular temporal and spatial coverage. However, changes in the assimilated observation systems can introduce discontinuities within the MERRA-2 ozone record, such as in 2004 when the MERRA-2 system shifted from assimilating ozone retrievals collected by SBUV instruments to those collected by instruments onboard the Aura satellite. In this study, we explore using the SAGE II record as a transfer function to develop a stable reanalysis data product, suitable for trend analysis, from the start of the SAGE II record in 1984 through the present. We follow the procedure outlined by Wargan et al. (2018) to address discontinuities in the MERRA-2 ozone dataset at the 2004 transition and during the Aura record. SAGE II ozone profiles are used to correct discontinuities in upper stratospheric ozone associated with changes in the MERRA-2 meteorological observing system in 1998 and 1995. We will then assess the relative performance of the data from different SAGE sensors using the resulting bias-corrected MERRA-2 ozone fields.

Pamela Wales↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Invigoration of Deep Convective Clouds Over the Atlantic: Aerosol Effect, Meteorology or Retrieval Artifact?

Associations between cloud properties and aerosol loading are frequently observed in products derived from satellite measurements. These observed trends between clouds and aerosol optical depth suggest aerosol modification of cloud dynamics, yet there are uncertainties involved in satellite retrievals that have the potential to lead to incorrect conclusions. Two of the most challenging problems are addressed here: the potential for retrieved aerosol optical depth to be cloud-contaminated, and as a result, artificially correlated with cloud parameters; and the potential for correlations between aerosol and cloud parameters to be erroneously considered to be causal. Here these issues are tackled directly by studying the effects of the aerosol on convective clouds in the tropical Atlantic Ocean using satellite remote sensing, a chemical transport model, and a reanalysis of meteorological fields. Results show that there is a robust positive correlation between cloud fraction or cloud top height and the aerosol optical depth, regardless of whether a stringent filtering of aerosol measurements in the vicinity of clouds is applied, or not. These same positive correlations emerge when replacing the observed aerosol field with that derived from a chemical transport model. Model-reanalysis data is used to address the causality question by providing meteorological context for the satellite observations. A correlation exercise between the full suite of meteorological fields derived from model reanalysis and satellite-derived cloud fields shows that observed cloud top height and cloud fraction correlate best with model pressure updraft velocity and relative humidity. Observed aerosol optical depth does correlate with meteorological parameters but usually different parameters from those that correlate with observed cloud fields. The result is a near-orthogonal influence of aerosol and meteorological fields on cloud top height and cloud fraction. The results strengthen the case that the aerosol does play a role in invigorating convective clouds.

Koren, Ilan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Study the Vertical Structure and Transportation of the Extreme African Dust Storms using MERRA-2 Data

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, Version 2 (MERRA-2) provides the first long-term global reanalysis to assimilate space-based observations of aerosols and represents their interactions with other physical processes in the climate system. In this study, we have examined the variations of atmospheric aerosols for the last 20 years since 2002 using the sub-daily MERRA-2 data and found seven extreme African dust storms that were transported westward across the Atlantic Ocean from the Sahara, crossing 70o-80oW. In particular, the well-known ‘Godzilla’ dust storm occurred in June 2020, and its dust cloud, with the highest-on-record aerosol optical depths, was transported toward the Americas. This storm greatly degraded air quality over large areas of the Caribbean Basin and the United States. The air quality index reached unhealthy levels for sensitive groups in more than ten U.S. states. In our study, the vertical structure and transport characteristics of the dust layers during this extreme dust event are investigated. The geopotential height and temperature were found anomalously low (around 600 hPa) over the Atlantic Ocean off northwest Africa before the June 2020 dust storm. This anomalous circulation pattern was persistent for more than 12 days starting from around May 30, breaking the regular easterly waves that transport dust from the Sahara Desert to the west. To verify the data quality, daily MERRA-2 PM2.5 data were calculated and compared with PM2.5 observations from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) at several selected ground stations in Florida. We provide this case study to illustrate how to effectively use various MERRA-2 data services at Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) where MERRA-2 data are archived, hoping to help data users in exploring their own topics of interest using data services at GES DISC.

data management, reanalysis↗

NASA NTRS2017

Climate Data Guide - Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2)

The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) is a global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). It spans the satellite observing era from 1980 to the present. The goals of MERRA-2 are to provide a regularly-gridded, homogeneous record of the global atmosphere, and to incorporate additional aspects of the climate system including trace gas constituents (stratospheric ozone), and improved land surface representation, and cryospheric processes. MERRA-2 is also the first satellite-era global reanalysis to assimilate space-based observations of aerosols and represent their interactions with other physical processes in the climate system. The inclusion of these additional components are consistent with the overall objectives of an Integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA). MERRA-2 is intended to replace the original MERRA product, and reflects recent advances in atmospheric modeling and data assimilation. Modern hyperspectral radiance and microwave observations, along with GPS-Radio Occultation and NASA ozone datasets are now assimilated in MERRA-2. Much of the structure of the data files remains the same in MERRA-2. While the original MERRA data format was HDF-EOS, the MERRA-2 supplied binary data format is now NetCDF4 (with lossy compression to save space).

MERRA-2↗

NASA NTRS2017

Exploring the Elevated Water Vapor Signal Associated with Biomass Burning Aerosol over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean

The quantification of radiative forcing due to the cumulative effects of aerosols, both directly and on cloud properties, remains the biggest source of uncertainty in our understanding of the physical climate. How the magnitude of these effects may be modified by meteorological conditions is an important aspect of this question. The Southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA), with seasonal biomass burning (BB) smoke plumes overlying a persistent stratocumulus cloud deck, offers a perfect natural observatory in which to study the complexities of aerosol-cloud interactions. The NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign consists of three field deployments over three years (2016-2018) with the goal of gaining a better understanding of the complex processes (direct and indirect) by which BB aerosols affect clouds. We present results from the first ORACLES field deployment, which took place in September 2016 out of Walvis Bay, Namibia. Two NASA aircraft were flown with a suite of aerosol, cloud, radiation, and meteorological instruments for remote-sensing and in-situ observations. A strong correlation was observed between the aircraft-measured pollution indicators (carbon monoxide and aerosol properties) and atmospheric water vapor content, at all altitudes. Atmospheric reanalysis indicates that convective dynamics over the continent, near likely contribute to this elevated signal. Understanding the mechanisms by which water vapor covaries with plume strength is important to quantifying the magnitude of the aerosol direct and semi-direct effects in the region.

Pistone, Kristina↗

NASA NTRS2020

Saharan Dust Aerosols Change Deep Convective Cloud Prevalence, Possibly by Inhibiting Marine New Particle Formation

Deep convective clouds (DCCs) are important to global climate, atmospheric chemistry, and precipitation. Dust, a dominant aerosol type over the tropical North Atlantic, has potentially large microphysical impacts on DCCs over this region. However, dust effects are difficult to identify, being confounded by co-varying meteorology and other factors. Here, a method is developed to quantify DCC responses to dust and other aerosols at large spatial and temporal scales despite these uncertainties. Over 7 million tropical North Atlantic cloud, aerosol, and meteorological profiles from CloudSat satellite data and MERRA-2 reanalysis products are used to stratify cloud observations into meteorological regimes, objectively select a priori assumptions, and iteratively test uncertainty sensitivity. Dust is robustly associated with a 54% increase in DCC prevalence. However, marine aerosol proxy concentrations are five times more predictive of dust-associated increases in DCC prevalence than the dust itself, or any other aerosol or meteorological factor. Marine aerosols are also the most predictive factor for the even larger increases in DCC prevalence (61-87%) associated with enhanced dimethyl sulfide and combustion and sulfate aerosols. Dust-associated increases in DCC prevalence are smaller at high dust concentrations than at low concentrations. These observations suggest that not only is dust a comparatively ineffective CCN source, but it may also act as a condensation/coagulation sink for chemical precursors to CCN, reducing total CCN availability over large spatial scales by inhibiting new particle formation from marine emissions. These observations represent the first time this rocess, previously predicted by models, is supported and quantified by measurements.

Aerosol-cloud interactions↗

NASA NTRS2021

Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model

The Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global average, partly due to changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosols. In order to study the effects of atmospheric aerosols in this warming, recent past (1990–2014) and future (2015–2050) simulations have been carried out using the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model to study the aerosol burdens and their radiative and climate impacts over the Arctic (>60°N), using anthropogenic emissions from the Eclipse V6b and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) databases, while global annual mean greenhouse gas concentrations were prescribed and kept fixed in all simulations. Results showed that the simulations have underestimated observed surface aerosol levels, in particular black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO2−4), by more than 50 %, with the smallest biases calculated for the atmosphere-only simulations, where winds are nudged to reanalysis data. CMIP6 simulations performed slightly better in reproducing the observed surface aerosol concentrations and climate parameters, compared to the Eclipse simulations. In addition, simulations where atmosphere and ocean are fully coupled had slightly smaller biases in aerosol levels compared to atmosphere-only simulations without nudging. Arctic BC, organic aerosol (OA), and SO2−4 burdens decrease significantly in all simulations by 10 %–60 % following the reductions of 7 %–78 % in emission projections, with the Eclipse ensemble showing larger reductions in Arctic aerosol burdens compared to the CMIP6 ensemble. For the 2030–2050 period, the Eclipse ensemble simulated a radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation interactions (RFARI) of −0.39 ± 0.01 W/sq. m, which is −0.08 W/sq. m larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing (−0.32 W/sq. m), of which −0.24 ± 0.01 W/sq. m was attributed to the anthropogenic aerosols. The CMIP6 ensemble simulated a RFARI of −0.35 to −0.40 W/sq. m for the same period, which is −0.01 to −0.06 W/sq. m larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing of −0.35 W/sq. m. The scenarios with little to no mitigation (worst-case scenarios) led to very small changes in the RFARI, while scenarios with medium to large emission mitigations led to increases in the negative RFARI, mainly due to the decrease in the positive BC forcing and the decrease in the negative SO2−4 forcing. The anthropogenic aerosols accounted for −0.24 to −0.26 W/sq. m of the net RFARI in 2030–2050 period, in Eclipse and CMIP6 ensembles, respectively. Finally, all simulations showed an increase in the Arctic surface air temperatures throughout the simulation period. By 2050, surface air temperatures are projected to increase by 2.4 to 2.6 °C in the Eclipse ensemble and 1.9 to 2.6 °C in the CMIP6 ensemble, compared to the 1990–2010 mean. Overall, results show that even the scenarios with largest emission reductions leads to similar impact on the future Arctic surface air temperatures and sea-ice extent compared to scenarios with smaller emission reductions, implying reductions of greenhouse emissions are still necessary to mitigate climate change.

Aerosols↗