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At least 73 records · Page 4

The Effect of an Equatorial Continent on the Tropical Rain Belt. Part 1: Annual Mean Changes in the ITCZ

The TRACMIP (Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project) ensemble includes slab-ocean aquaplanet controls and experiments with a highly idealized tropical continent, characterized by modified aquaplanet grid cells with increased evaporative resistance, increased albedo, reduced heat capacity, and no ocean heat transport (zero Q-flux). In the annual mean, an equatorial cold tongue develops west of the continent and induces dry anomalies and a split in the oceanic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Ocean cooling is initiated by advection of cold, dry air from the winter portion of the continent; warm, humid anomalies in the summer portion are restricted to the continent by anomalous surface convergence. The surface energy budget suggests that ocean cooling persists and intensifies because of a positive feedback between a colder surface, drier and colder air, reduced downwelling longwave (LW) flux, and enhanced net surface LW cooling (LW feedback). A feedback between wind, evaporation, and SST (so-called WES feedback) also contributes to the establishment and maintenance of the cold tongue. Simulations with a gray-radiation model and simulations that diverge from protocol (with negligible winter cooling) confirm the importance of moist-radiative feedbacks and of rectification effects on the seasonal cycle. This mechanism coupling the continental and oceanic climate might be relevant to the double ITCZ bias. The key role of the LW feedback suggests that the study of interactions between monsoons and oceanic ITCZs requires full-physics models and a hierarchy of land models that considers evaporative processes alongside heat capacity as a defining characteristic of land.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrogen from Sunlight and Water: A Side-by-Side Comparison between Photoelectrochemical and Solar Thermochemical Water-Splitting

Photoelectrochemical (PEC) and solar thermochemical (STCH) water-splitting represent two promising pathways for direct solar hydrogen generation. PEC water-splitting integrates multiple functional materials and utilizes energetic electrons and holes generated from sunlight to produce hydrogen and oxygen in two half-reactions, while STCH water-splitting couples a series of consecutive chemical reactions and uses absorbed heat from sunlight to generate hydrogen and oxygen in two full reactions. In this Focus Review, the basic operating principles, sunlight utilization, device architecture, reactor design, instantaneous and annually averaged solar-to-hydrogen (STH) conversion efficiency, and the operating conditions and constraints of both pathways are compared. A side-by-side comparison addresses some common sources of confusion and misinterpretation, especially in the evaluation of STH conversion efficiencies, and reveals distinct features and challenges in both PEC and STCH technologies. Furthermore, this Focus Review also addresses materials and device challenges in PEC and STCH for cost-competitive hydrogen generation.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Analyzing Next-Generation Supply Chains Using the Materials Flows through Industry Tool

The Materials Flows through Industry (MFI) tool is a supply chain modeling tool developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) with funding from the Department of Energy's Advanced Manufacturing Office. MFI was created to identify and analyze opportunities to reduce the energy and carbon intensities of the U.S. industrial sector (Hanes and Carpenter 2017). In this work, we present an overview of the MFI tool's structure and capabilities, as well as the results of using MFI to analyze a novel NREL-developed process to 'upcycle' PET plastic into higher-value composite materials (Rorrer et al. 2019). This process combines recycled PET (rPET) plastic with inputs that can be derived from biomass, including muconic acid, acrylic acid, and ethylene glycol, to chemically break down the plastic back to its monomers in a process called glycolization. Then, repolymerization and the application of fiberglass yields the valuable glass fiber reinforced plastic (GFRP) composite, a performance material used in the manufacture of wind turbine blades, boat hulls, and other applications. This rPET-derived GFRP was found to have superior strength and fiberglass adhesion compared to conventional GFRP formulations. Our findings indicate that this GFRP production process, were it to be widely commercialized beyond its current lab-scale, could potentially reduce the fossil energy intensity of the GFRP supply chain by between 37% and 58% compared to the conventional method of GFRP manufacture from fossil-derived inputs. We also estimate potential supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions between 30% and 40% from this process. Scaling these GHG offset estimates up to annual GFRP production in the U.S. would be roughly equivalent to removing between 150,000 and 200,000 vehicles from U.S. roads. These ranges of impact estimates represent the range of differences associated with the various economic allocation methods we have assumed for the intensity contributions from the first life of the PET plastic. Following Shen et al. (2010), we derive economic allocation factors from the current price ratios of clear- and green-colored recycled PET plastic to virgin PET resin ('waste-valuation' approach) or assume them to be zero in a more simplistic allocation ('cutoff' approach). Future work involving the MFI modeling tool will also be discussed, including preliminary results comparing the energy intensity of conventional and bio-based nylons manufacturing. Attendees will also be encouraged to conduct MFI supply chain modeling of their own by requesting a user account on the MFI web application, which is freely available to the public at the following address: https://mfitool.nrel.gov.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dynamic hosting capacity analysis for distributed photovoltaic resources—Framework and case study

Distributed photovoltaic systems can cause adverse distribution system impacts, including voltage violations at customer locations and thermal overload of lines, transformers, and other equipment resulting from high current. The installed capacity at which violations first occur and above which would require system upgrades is called the hosting capacity. Current static methods for determining hosting capacity tend to either consider infrequent worst-case snapshots in time and/or capture coarse time and spatial resolution. Because the duration of violations cannot be captured with these traditional methods, the metric thresholds used in these studies conservatively use the strictest constraints given in operating standards, even though both worse voltage performance and higher overloads may be temporarily acceptable. However, assessing the full details requires accurately capturing time-dependence, voltage-regulating equipment operations, and performance of advanced controls-based mitigation techniques. In this paper, we propose a dynamic distributed photovoltaic hosting capacity methodology to address these issues by conducting power flow analysis for a full year. A key contribution is the formulation of time aware metrics to take these annual results and identify the hosting capacity. Through a case study, we show that this approach can more fully capture grid impacts of distributed photovoltaic than traditional methods and the dynamic hosting capacity was 60%–200% higher than the static hosting capacity in this case study.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fundamental Behavior of ENSO Phase Locking

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events tend to peak at the end of the calendar year, a phenomenon called ENSO phase locking. This phase locking is a fundamental ENSO property that is determined by its basic dynamics. The conceptual ENSO recharge oscillator (RO) model is adopted to examine the ENSO phase-locking behavior in terms of its peak time, strength of phase locking, and asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events. The RO model reproduces the main phase-locking characteristics found in observations, and the results show that the phase locking of ENSO is mainly dominated by the seasonal modulation of ENSO growth/decay rate. In addition, the linear/nonlinear mechanism of ENSO phase preference/phase locking is investigated using RO model. The difference between the nonlinear phase-locking mechanism and linear phase-preference mechanism is largely smoothed out in the presence of noise forcing. Further, the impact on ENSO phase locking from annual cycle modulation of the growth/decay rate, stochastic forcing, nonlinearity, and linear frequency are examined in the RO model. The preferred month of ENSO peak time depends critically on the phase and strength of the seasonal modulation of the ENSO growth/decay rate. Furthermore, the strength of phase locking is mainly controlled by the linear growth/decay rate, the amplitude of seasonal modulation of growth/decay rate, the amplitude of noise, the SST-dependent factor of multiplicative noise, and the linear frequency. The asymmetry of the sharpness of ENSO phase locking is induced by the asymmetric effect of state-dependent noise forcing in El Niño and La Niña events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Challenge Ahead: A Critical Perspective on Meeting U.S. Growth Targets for Sustainable Aviation Fuel

With demand for jet fuel expected to more than double by 2050 and triple by 2070, continued and accelerated efforts to decarbonize the global aviation sector are needed to curtail rising emissions and avert the worst outcomes of climate change. In response to this call-to-action, the United States has unveiled the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Grand Challenge, which seeks to expedite the development of alternative fuel pathways that offer a minimum of a 50% reduction in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional jet fuel. However, there is growing concern on whether sufficient biomass will be readily available to satisfy the projected sharp rise in demand for SAF. Carbon dioxide point-source emissions combined with rising supply from direct air capture efforts have the potential to complement and offset any supply gaps for biomass-derived SAF and other use cases. Independent of the chosen feedstock and conversion technology, numerous challenges persist across SAF production in seeking to drive down fuel cost and carbon intensity. To hit the 2030 target of 3 billion gal/yr, this means about a 100% compound annual growth rate in volumetric SAF production (about 130 times scale-up) will need to be realized. To achieve the stretch goal of 35 billion gallons of SAF per year by 2050, volumetric production must increase by a factor of 12 from the 3-billion-gal/year 2030 target of SAF Grand Challenge. The comparatively longer runway for 2050 combined with significant production volume growth suggests a more inclusive "all-hands-on-deck"-style approach will likely play a role. A key component in success lies in the coordinated research, development, demonstration, and deployment efforts by multiple federal agencies and industry partnerships.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Efficient species identification for Pacific salmon genetic monitoring programs

Abstract Genetic monitoring of Pacific salmon in the Columbia River basin provides crucial information to fisheries managers that is otherwise challenging to obtain using traditional methods. Monitoring programs such as genetic stock identification (GSI) and parentage‐based tagging (PBT) involve genotyping tens of thousands of individuals annually. Although rare, these large sample collections inevitably include misidentified species, which exhibit low genotyping success on species‐specific Genotyping‐in‐Thousands by sequencing (GT‐seq) panels. For laboratories involved in large‐scale genotyping efforts, diagnosing non‐target species and reassigning them to the appropriate monitoring program can be costly and time‐consuming. To address this problem, we identified 19 primer pairs that exhibit consistent cross‐species amplification among salmonids and contain 51 species informative variants. These genetic markers reliably discriminate among 11 salmonid species and two subspecies of Cutthroat Trout and have been included in species‐specific GT‐seq panels for Chinook Salmon, Coho Salmon, Sockeye Salmon, and Rainbow Trout commonly used for Pacific salmon genetic monitoring. The majority of species‐informative amplicons (16) were newly identified from the four existing GT‐seq panels, thus demonstrating a low‐cost approach to species identification when using targeted sequencing methods. A species‐calling script was developed that is tailored for routine GT‐seq genotyping pipelines and automates the identification of non‐target species. Following extensive testing with empirical and simulated data, we demonstrated that the genetic markers and accompanying script accurately identified species and are robust to missing genotypic data and low‐frequency, shared polymorphisms among species. Finally, we used these tools to identify Coho Salmon incidentally caught in the Columbia River Chinook Salmon sport fishery and used PBT to determine their hatchery of origin. These molecular and computing resources provide a valuable tool for Pacific salmon conservation in the Columbia River basin and demonstrate a cost‐effective approach to species identification for genetic monitoring programs.

Robinson, Zachary L.↗

Summary of Analytical Services for the Hanford Site Radionuclide NESHAP Program

This document is a summary of the point source analytical requirements used to demonstrate compliance for the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site operations with 40 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 61, “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants,” (NESHAP) Subpart H, “National Emission Standards for Emissions of Radionuclides Other Than Radon From Department of Energy Facilities,” and the Washington Administrative Code (WAC) 246-247, “Radiation Protection – Air Emissions.” This reference collects information from multiple source documents and is not intended to create, supersede, replace or over-ride any existing contractual, DOE, federal or state statutes, regulations, compliance agreements, orders, permits, licenses or other requirements. The requirement source document governs where any difference may exist. The Hanford Mission Integration Solutions (HMIS) Environmental organization has been contracted by DOE to manage and report data collected from the sampling and monitoring of radioactive air emissions point sources, colloquially called stacks. The Environmental organization coordinates the analyses and reporting of samples collected at various facilities across the Hanford Site. These facilities operate approximately 52 stacks that require sampling, monitoring or estimating radioactive air emissions. The stacks are operated by Bechtel National, Inc. (BNI), Central Plateau Cleanup Company (CPCCo), Hanford Tank Waste Operations & Closure (H2C), Hanford Laboratory Management and Integration (HLMI), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). Stack samples from CPCCo, HLMI and H2C facilities are collected by the operating contractor staff, delivered to HMIS, and then shipped to an offsite contracted laboratory for analyses. The field and laboratory sample data uploaded into the Sample Management and Analytical Results Tracking (SMART) database are used to calculate sample volumes and concentrations. Sample concentrations are evaluated for compliance with federal and state regulations, permits, and license requirements. The SMART database also calculates total curies released for sampled point sources and stacks. Point source effluent concentrations and releases are published annually in publicly available reports. The BNI and PNNL operate several DOE-Hanford Field Office (HFO) stacks subject to the requirements of 40 CFR 61, Subpart H and WAC 246-247. The concentrations, curies released and dose modeling evaluation for these stacks are included in the DOE-HFO annual radionuclide NESHAP report. The sample collection, analyses and emissions estimates for these stacks are outside the scope of HMIS contracted responsibilities and not addressed further in this document.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Call to Arms Control: Synergies between Nonproliferation Applications of Neutrino Detectors and Large-Scale Fundamental Neutrino Physics Experiments (A Snowmass White Paper)

The High Energy Physics community can benefit from a natural synergy in research activities into next-generation large-scale water and scintillator neutrino detectors, now being studied for remote reactor monitoring, discovery and exclusion applications in cooperative nonproliferation contexts. Since approximately 2010, US nonproliferation researchers, supported by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), have been studying a range of possible applications of relatively large (100 ton) to very large (hundreds of kiloton) water and scintillator neutrino detectors. In parallel, the fundamental physics community has been developing detectors at similar scales and with similar design features for a range of high-priority physics topics, primarily in fundamental neutrino physics. These topics include neutrino oscillation studies at beams and reactors, solar, and geological neutrino measurements, supernova studies, and others. Examples of ongoing synergistic work at U.S. national laboratories and universities include prototype gadolinium-doped water and water-based and opaque scintillator test-beds and demonstrators, extensive testing and industry partnerships related to large area fast position-sensitive photomultiplier tubes, and the development of concepts for a possible underground kiloton-scale water-based detector for reactor monitoring and technology demonstrations. Some opportunities for engagement between the two communities include bi-annual Applied Antineutrino Physics conferences, collaboration with U.S. National Laboratories engaging in this research, and occasional NNSA funding opportunities supporting a blend of nonproliferation and basic science R&D, directed at the U.S. academic community.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Pan-Arctic seasonal cycles and long-term trends of aerosol properties from 10 observatories

Even though the Arctic is remote, aerosol properties observed there are strongly influenced by anthropogenic emissions from outside the Arctic. This is particularly true for the so-called Arctic haze season (January through April). In summer (June through September), when atmospheric transport patterns change, and precipitation is more frequent, local Arctic sources, i.e., natural sources of aerosols and precursors, play an important role. Over the last few decades, significant reductions in anthropogenic emissions have taken place. At the same time a large body of literature shows evidence that the Arctic is undergoing fundamental environmental changes due to climate forcing, leading to enhanced emissions by natural processes that may impact aerosol properties. In this study, we analyze 9 aerosol chemical species and 4 particle optical properties from 10 Arctic observatories (Alert, Kevo, Pallas, Summit, Thule, Tiksi, Barrow/Utgiavik, Villum, and Gruvebadet and Zeppelin Observatory – both at Ny-Ålesund Research Station) to understand changes in anthropogenic and natural aerosol contributions. Variables include equivalent black carbon, particulate sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, methanesulfonic acid, sodium, iron, calcium and potassium, as well as scattering and absorption coefficients, single scattering albedo and scattering Ångström exponent. First, annual cycles are investigated, which despite anthropogenic emission reductions still show the Arctic haze phenomenon. Second, long-term trends are studied using the Mann–Kendall Theil–Sen slope method. We find in total 41 significant trends over full station records, i.e., spanning more than a decade, compared to 26 significant decadal trends. The majority of significantly declining trends is from anthropogenic tracers and occurred during the haze period, driven by emission changes between 1990 and 2000. For the summer period, no uniform picture of trends has emerged. Twenty-six percent of trends, i.e., 19 out of 73, are significant, and of those 5 are positive and 14 are negative. Negative trends include not only anthropogenic tracers such as equivalent black carbon at Kevo, but also natural indicators such as methanesulfonic acid and non-sea-salt calcium at Alert. Positive trends are observed for sulfate at Gruvebadet. No clear evidence of a significant change in the natural aerosol contribution can be observed yet. However, testing the sensitivity of the Mann–Kendall Theil–Sen method, we find that monotonic changes of around 5 % yr –1 in an aerosol property are needed to detect a significant trend within one decade. This highlights that long-term efforts well beyond a decade are needed to capture smaller changes. It is particularly important to understand the ongoing natural changes in the Arctic, where interannual variability can be high, such as with forest fire emissions and their influence on the aerosol population. To investigate the climate-change-induced influence on the aerosol population and the resulting climate feedback, long-term observations of tracers more specific to natural sources are needed, as well as of particle microphysical properties such as size distributions, which can be used to identify changes in particle populations which are not well captured by mass-oriented methods such as bulk chemical composition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of inter-grid-cell lateral unsaturated and saturated flow model in the E3SM Land Model (v2.0)

Abstract. The lateral transport of water in the subsurface is important in modulating terrestrial water energy distribution. Although a few land surface models have recently included lateral saturated flow within and across grid cells, it is not a default configuration in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project version 6 experiments. In this work, we developed the lateral subsurface flow model within both unsaturated and saturated zones in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model version 2 (ELMv2.0). The new model, called ELMlat, was benchmarked against PFLOTRAN, a 3D subsurface flow and transport model, for three idealized hillslopes that included a convergent hillslope, divergent hillslope, and tilted V-shaped hillslope with variably saturated initial conditions. ELMlat showed comparable performance against PFLOTRAN in terms of capturing the dynamics of soil moisture and groundwater table for the three benchmark hillslope problems. Specifically, the mean absolute errors (MAEs) of the soil moisture in the top 10 layers between ELMlat and PFLOTRAN were within 1 %±3 %, and the MAEs of water table depth were within ±0.2 m. Next, ELMlat was applied to the Little Washita experimental watershed to assess its prediction of groundwater table, soil moisture, and soil temperature. The spatial pattern of simulated groundwater table depth agreed well with the global groundwater table benchmark dataset generated from a global model calibrated with long-term observations. The effects of lateral groundwater flow on the energy flux partitioning were more prominent in lowland areas with shallower groundwater tables, where the difference in simulated annual surface soil temperature could reach 0.3–0.4 ∘C between ELMv2.0 and ELMlat. Incorporating lateral subsurface flow in ELM improves the representation of the subsurface hydrology, which will provide a good basis for future large-scale applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A data-driven global soil heterotrophic respiration dataset and the drivers of its inter-annual variability

Soil heterotrophic respiration (SHR), one of the primary carbon fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, is important for carbon-climate feedbacks because of its sensitivity to available litter and soil carbon, climatic conditions, and nutrient availability. However, until recently limited SHR data were available, and most published global SHR estimates have either a short time span, coarse spatial resolution, or reply on overly-simple model formulations. To better understand and quantify the global distribution of SHR and its sensitivity to climate variability, we produced a new global SHR dataset using Random Forest algorithms, up-scaling 455 point data from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB 4.0) with gridded fields of climatic, edaphic and productivity as explanatory variables. We estimated a global total SHR of 46.8 Pg C yr-1 over 1985-2013 (95% confidence interval: 38.6-56.3 Pg C yr-1), with a significant increasing trend of 0.03 Pg C yr-2 during this period. We found that the choice of soil moisture datasets contributes more to the difference among these data-driven SHR members rather than that of productivity, temperature and precipitation data sources. We also analyzed the influence of climatic variables on the inter-annual variability (IAV) of our SHR product. Water availability was the dominant driver of IAV at global scales, although the inferred sensitivity depends on the choice of the soil moisture gridded dataset. At the ecosystem scale, temperature strongly controls the IAV of SHR in tropical forests, while water availability dominates in extra-tropical forest and semi-arid regions. Our machine-learning gridded SHR dataset and outputs from process-based land surface models (TRENDYv6) show agreement for a strong association between water variability and SHR IAV at the global scale, but the two approaches lead to different temporal trend globally and different controlling variables for IAV at the ecosystem scale. Our study provides evidence for the pervasive and important role of water availability in driving SHR, indicating both a direct effect limiting decomposition rates and an indirect effect through the amount of fresh organic matter made available to SHR from productivity. In consideration of potential limitations and uncertainties remaining in our data-driven SHR datasets, we call for a more scientifically designed observation network for SHR, more observation data compilation, and increased use of deep learning methods making maximum use of observation data in hand. This will benefit process-based models, and improve our understanding of SHR response to future anomalous environmental conditions.

Yao, Yitong↗

DOE BSSD Performance Management Metrics Report Q2

The vision of the National Microbiome Data Collaborative (NMDC) centers on the concept of connecting data, people, and ideas to advance microbiome innovation and discovery. Building data infrastructure, while key to NMDC’s ability to execute on our vision, can only go so far in creating scientific impact. By fostering strong community partnerships and developing a set of robust community outreach and training programs, we are able to turn our products – the Submission Portal, NMDC EDGE, and the Data Portal – into tools that empower the scientific community. Our multi-pronged community building approach spans individual researchers, research teams, consortia and scientific societies, and institutions and federal agencies. To foster a collaborative and inclusive community-centered environment, we have identified three strategic objectives to promote an inclusive and connected community: (1) recognize and support the diverse research needs and perspectives of the microbiome research community; (2) promote best practices across the microbiome community, from researchers to funders, through community-driven practices (FAIR, CARE, and TRUST); and (3) build a microbiome ecosystem that enables scientific discovery and innovation across stakeholders. These strategic objectives allow our team to focus on impact across a diverse range of activities, from launching the American Society for Microbiology (ASM) Microbiome Data Prize to supporting the Ambassador and Champions programs fostering learning and building a collaborative network. We broadly communicate our work through social media (X/Twitter, LinkedIn, and Instagram), The Microbiome Standard (our quarterly newsletter), and Annual Reports. All our work is underpinned by a strong commitment to diversity, equity, and inclusion as articulated in our Action Plan that tracks progress towards key metrics. A core component of our engagement strategy is user research. User research ensures the Submission Portal, NMDC EDGE, Data Portal, and the new Field Notes mobile app are designed with and for the scientific community. Our user research efforts consist of asking researchers exploratory questions to collect information on researcher priorities, methodologies, and perceptions to ensure that we are aware of the current state of microbiome research. Our usability testing provides researchers with prototypes or test environments of the NMDC products, and we capture valuable information on how users interact with the products to make improvements. Given the diverse nature of microbiome work, we acknowledge that we are not aware of all pressing data challenges and thus rely on the research community to help us identify the most important issues to prioritize. To date, we have conducted 24 interviews and one beta-testing call with 10 participants across all NMDC products, which have generated 321 insights and 120 action items. Herein, we describe the ways we engage with the microbiome research community to advance the NMDC mission.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Advanced Simulation and Computing: ASC FY24 Implementation Plan

The DOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) is an integrated technical program for maintaining the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. nuclear stockpile. The SSP incorporates nuclear test data, computational modeling and simulation, and experimental facilities to advance understanding of nuclear weapons. The suite of data analyzed comes from activities including previous nuclear tests, stockpile surveillance, experimental research, and development and engineering programs. This integrated national program requires the continued use of experimental facilities and the computational capabilities to support the SSP missions. These component parts, in addition to an appropriately scaled production capability, enable NNSA to support stockpile requirements. The ultimate goal of the SSP, and thus of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program, is to ensure that the U.S. maintains a safe, secure, and effective strategic deterrent. The ASC program is a cornerstone of the SSP, providing simulation capabilities and computational resources to support the annual stockpile assessment and certification process, study advanced nuclear weapons design and manufacturing processes, analyze accident scenarios and weapons aging, and provide the tools to enable stockpile Life Extension Programs (LEPs) and the resolution of Significant Finding Investigations (SFIs). This work requires a balance of resources, including technical staff, hardware, simulation software, and computer science solutions. The ASC program focuses on increasing the predictive capabilities in a three-dimensional (3D) simulation environment while maintaining support to the SSP. The Program continues to improve its unique tools for understanding and solving progressively more difficult stockpile problems (sufficient resolution, dimensionality, and scientific details), and quantifying critical margins and uncertainties. Resolving each issue requires increasingly difficult analyses because the aging process has progressively moved the stockpile further from the original test base. While the focus remains on the U.S. nuclear weapons program, where possible, the Program also enables the use of high-performance computing (HPC) and simulation tools to address broader national security needs, such as foreign nuclear weapon assessments and nuclear counterterrorism. The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) calls for NNSA to “deliver a modern, adaptive nuclear security enterprise based on an integrated strategy for risk management, production-based resilience, science and technology innovation, and workforce initiatives.” Furthermore, “NNSA will establish a Science and Technology Innovation Initiative to accelerate the integration of science and technology (S&T) throughout its activities.” Executing this strategy necessitates the continued emphasis on developing and sustaining high-quality scientific and engineering staff, as well as supporting computational and experimental capabilities. These components constitute the foundation of the nuclear weapons program. The continued success of the SSP and LEPs is predicated upon the ability to credibly certify the stockpile, without a return to underground nuclear tests (UGTs). Shortly after the nuclear test moratorium entered into force in 1992, the Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) was established to provide an extensive simulation capability to underpin stockpile certification. While computing and simulation have always been essential to the success of the nuclear weapons program, the program goal of ASCI was to execute NNSA’s vision of using these tools in support of the stockpile stewardship mission. The ASCI program was essential to the successful demonstration of the SSP, providing critical nuclear weapons simulation and modeling capabilities. ASCI officially evolved into the ASC program in fiscal year (FY) 2005, but the mission remains essentially the same: provide the simulation and computational capabilities that underpin the ability to maintain a safe, secure, effective nuclear weapon stockpile, without returning to underground nuclear testing. The capabilities that the ASC program provides at the national laboratories play a vital role in the nuclear security enterprise and are necessary for fulfilling the stockpile stewardship and life extension requirements outlined for NNSA. The Program develops modern simulation tools that provide insights into stockpile aging issues, provide the computational and simulation tools that enable designers and analysts to certify the current stockpile and life-extended nuclear weapons, and inform the decision-making process when any modifications in nuclear warheads or the associated manufacturing processes are deemed necessary. Furthermore, ASC is enhancing the predictive simulation capabilities that are essential to evaluate weapons effects, design experiments, and ensure test readiness. The ASC program continues to improve its unique tools to solve stockpile problems— with a focus on sufficient resolution, dimensionality, and scientific detail—to enable Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) and to resolve the increasingly difficult analyses needed for stockpile stewardship. The needs of the Stockpile Management and Production Modernization programs (formerly Directed Stockpile Work) also drive the requirements for simulation and computational resources. These requirements include planned LEPs, stockpile support activities, and mitigation efforts against the potential for technical surprise. All of the weapons within the current stockpile are in some stage of the life extension process. The simulation and computational capabilities are crucial for successful execution of these life extensions and for ensuring NNSA can certify these life-extended weapons without conducting a UGT.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impact analysis of heating electrification in US buildings with geothermal heat pumps

Few studies have investigated the impacts of large-scale deployment of geothermal heat pumps (GHPs, also called ground source heat pumps) on the electric grid. GHPs utilize the ground as a heat source to warm buildings more efficiently than other space-heating systems. The coupling with the ground offers seasonal thermal storage so that GHPs can also cool buildings in summer more efficiently than other space-cooling systems. This study simulated the performance of GHP systems for various commercial and residential buildings in 15 climate zones in the United States. Combined with the latest End-Use Load Profiles of the US building stock and grid modeling, this study aims to assess the impacts of a national deployment of GHP systems on the US electric grid in terms of energy consumption, emissions, and operational resilience. The preliminary results show that the GHP deployment can save 429 billion kWh of electricity (a 19% reduction from baseline) and reduce carbon emissions by 496 million tons per year (a 31 % reduction from baseline). A geographical view of the results indicates that retrofitting existing HVAC systems with new GHP systems can lead to further reductions in annual electricity consumption and peak electricity demand in the southern regions of the United States than in other parts of the country. On the other hand, GHP retrofits result in higher percentages of site energy savings and carbon emission reduction in the north (cold climates) than in the south (warm climates).

Liu, Xiaobing↗

Performance evaluation of surface riding wave energy converter with linear electric generator

In this work, we devised a new WEC (wave energy converter) called SR-WEC (Surface Riding WEC). The SR-WEC consists of two bodies: the outer cylinder with an armature assembly (body #1) and a magnet assembly (body #2) sliding inside the armature. For the SR-WEC, the relative sliding displacement and velocity are caused by gravity acceleration and the outer cylinder's motions, and they lead to electrical power generation. To evaluate its performance, a numerical simulation tool was developed, which solves the fully-coupled floater-mooring-generator dynamics. During the developing stage, the appropriate hydrodynamics model, sliding mechanics model, mooring dynamics model, and LEG (linear electric generator) electro-magnetic model were independently developed and then fully coupled in time domain to account for the cross-coupling interactions among them. Then, the developed simulation tool was verified component by component against various laboratory tests. Subsequently, systematic parametric studies were conducted with several important design parameters under various wave conditions to enhance power generation. After that, the average output power was evaluated in enlarged operational wave conditions. The present SR-WEC is particularly designed to be efficient at low sea states, which is good since they cover the majority of typical annual sea states.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SECARB Semi-Annual Field Review Reports - Early Test

The Southern States Energy Board (SSEB) managed the overall Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (SECARB) Phase III project and The Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG), at the University of Texas at Austin, managed all activities associated with the Early Test field site near Cranfield, Mississippi (the Early Test or Cranfield Project). BEG was assisted in the management of site activities by Sandia Technologies (Sandia). BEG and Sandia implemented reporting procedures that included monthly and quarterly technical progress reports, as well as periodic reporting on key field activities. Subsequent sections of this report catalog the field activities and are organized in a semiannual chronology. The Cranfield Project was located approximately 12 miles east of Natchez, Mississippi. Denbury Onshore, LLC, began operating a commercial CO 2 flood of the field (using the subsurface injection of CO 2 for EOR) in June 2008. Carbon dioxide from the Jackson Dome, a natural source near Jackson, Mississippi, was delivered to the Cranfield oilfield via pipeline. Beginning in October 2008, the SECARB Early Test team characterized the surface and subsurface of the Cranfield site. During the field test CO 2 was injected into the lower Tuscaloosa Formation, a regionally extensive saline formation with the potential to hold millions of tons of CO 2 emissions. By January 2015, the team injected more than 11 million metric tons of CO 2 and monitored a total stored CO 2 mass of 5,326,975 metric tons. SECARB’s study operations occurred in four integrated research program areas within Cranfield field: (1) the High Volume Injection Test area (HiVIT); (2) the Detailed Area of Study (DAS); (3) the Geomechanical area; and (4) the near-surface observatory, also called the “P-site.” Carbon dioxide injection activities were conducted at the HiVIT and the DAS. Figure 1.1-1 provides a depiction of the DAS.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Solar +: Clean Energy Strategies for the Sunshine State (Final Technical Report (FTR) of the Florida Alliance for Accelerating Solar and Storage Technology Readiness (FAASSTeR))

This reports on a four-year effort to provide foundational research, analysis, strategies and assistance to help Florida, and other states that might learn from this work, to grow solar energy in conjunction with other distributed energy resources by addressing and overcoming existing barriers, and in way that delivers increased value. The start of this effort coincided with an inflection point of sorts into a new dawn for solar energy in Florida, where the Sunshine state’s national ranking in total installed solar, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), has rose from 13th to 4th. Florida has now become the national leader in annual utility-scale solar growth as dozens of large plants have come online. Also, during this time, Florida utilities have expressed a strong and growing interest in understanding the role of energy storage and how to best plan for and deploy this unique resource as part of strategies to grow solar. The utility-scale solar growth experienced has been fueled by the economics of solar cost-parity with natural gas combined cycle plants and Florida Public Service Commission’s (PSC) approval of cost-recovery for the Investor-Owned Utilities (IOU’s), primarily through the Solar Base Rate Adjustment (SoBRA) mechanism. This has led to gigawatts (GW’s) of rate-based solar capacity additions over several years, along with fairly significant amounts of energy storage. Meanwhile, municipal electric utilities, which, collectively, are the third largest source of power in the state, have been increasing solar considerably through power purchase agreements (PPA’s) and are on track to have close to 1 GW of grid-connected solar by 2024. Florida’s municipal utilities and the Florida Municipal Electric Association (FMEA) have been key partners in the Florida Alliance for Accelerating Solar and Storage Technology Readiness (FAASSTeR), formed to carry out this effort. The six largest of these have been Core Team utilities, engaging throughout the project in weekly calls, discussions, and project direction, participating in and hosting workshops and benefiting from technical assistance in several areas.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗