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A conference poster detailing troubleshooting procedures for equation-oriented modeling in the IDAES framework. This procedure is demonstrated via work on an IDAES flowsheet for carbon capture using monoethanol amine (MEA).
Equation-oriented (EO) modeling has the potential to enable the effective design and optimization of the operation of advanced energy systems. However, advanced modeling of energy systems results in a large number of variables and non-linear equations, and it can be difficult to search through these to identify the culprit(s) responsible for convergence issues. The Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems Integrated Platform (IDAES-IP) contains a tool to identify poorly scaled constraints and variables by searching for rows and columns of the Jacobian matrix with small L2-norms so they can be rescaled. A further singular value decomposition can be per-formed to identify degenerate sets of equations and remaining scaling issues. This work presents an EO model of a flowsheet developed for post-combustion carbon capture using a monoethanolamine (MEA) solvent system as a case study. The IDAES diagnostics tools were successfully applied to this flowsheet to identify problems to improve model robustness and enable the optimization of process design and operating conditions of a carbon capture system.
Application of polycrystalline hexagonal close packed (HCP) metals in engineering designs has been constrained by their anisotropic responses due to twinning and limited plasticity. In deformation, twins most often initiate at grain boundaries (GBs), and thicken and propagate across the grain. In this work, the GB twin embryos in Mg and Mg alloys, and the conditions that influence their propagation are investigated. Using a micromechanical crystal plasticity model, the role of embryo shape on the driving forces prevailing at the embryo boundaries that could support its expansion is studied. The modeled embryos are either planar, extending more in the shear direction than normal to the twin plane, or equiaxed. Results show that the thinner the embryo, the greater the driving forces for both thickening and forward propagation. Alloys with low prismatic-to-basal critical resolved shear stress (CRSS) ratios promote embryo thickening and large CRSS values for the slip mode that primarily accommodates the twin shear encourage propagation. The neighboring grains with orientations that enable local accommodation of the embryo twin shear by pyramidal slip promote forward propagation but have little effect on thickening. When two like embryos lie along the same GB, their paired interaction promotes forward propagation but hinders thickening.
Recently, a family of tetraamine-functionalized metal-organic frameworks (MOF) has been reported as promising sorbent materials for capturing CO2 from flue gas conditions relevant to natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) applications. The main advantages of these materials are their two-step cooperative CO2 adsorption, which gives rise to unusual two step-shaped CO2 adsorption profiles and their high thermal stability. This work presents the modelling of the two-transition isotherm of the tetraamine-appended MOF, N,N'-bis(3-aminopropyl)-1,4-diaminobutane (3-4-3)-appended Mg2(dobpdc), and the techno-economic analysis (TEA) of carbon capture processes utilizing this sorbent. Due to the unusual isotherm shapes of the experimental CO2 adsorption data for tetraamine-appended Mg2(dobpdc) and the strong nonlinearity of CO2 loading with respect to temperature and pressure, we tested two different models which use logistic functions for representing the different isotherm behaviors in the different pressure ranges. The first model uses the quadratic isotherm model in the low-pressure region, the Langmuir isotherm model in the middle pressure range, and the dual site Langmuir isotherm model in the high-pressure range. To model the transition between regions we used the arctangent functions independent of temperature and the thermal effect was accounted by using the Clausius-Clapeyron relation]. The second model is an extension of the weighted dual-site Langmuir isotherm model presented by Hughes et al.. In this extended model, the dual-site Langmuir isotherm is employed in the three transition regions, using temperature-dependent logistic functions to activate or deactivate the isotherm model in the low, middle, and high-pressure ranges. Both models fit the experimental data quite well with root mean squared errors (RMSE’s) of 0.41 and 0.17 for model 1 and model 2, respectively. Since model 2 resulted in a lower RMSE, it was leveraged for the development of the gas/solid contactor models used by the TEA. Specifically, two different contactor models, an axial-flow fixed bed and moving bed contactor, were developed as part of this work. These models are dynamic, pressure-driven, and consist of mass, energy, and momentum conservation equations. A kinetic model was also developed by performing parameter estimation using experimental fixed bed breakthrough data. These models are then used to simulate CO2 capture processes from the flue gas generated from a ~600 gross MW NGCC power plant. A cost model was developed which considers the capital cost of the reactors and the significant operating costs such as steam and electricity. Using NETL’s Framework for the Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty of Uncertainty and Surrogates tool (FOQUS), which has the capability of linking models built using numerous modelling platforms with derivative-free optimization solvers, a techno-economic optimization of the carbon capture processes was performed which minimizes the cost of capture.
We consider capacity addition decisions by a new product manufacturer faced with uncertain technology alternatives. The manufacturing capacity addition and technology development occurs in parallel, with preliminary results from a technology project's success providing valuable information to the manufacturer in adding capacity. We solve a stochastic dynamic program with Bayesian updates to obtain the manufacturer's expected profit‐maximizing capacity investment decision. Our model and applications are motivated by the Critical Materials Institute (CMI) (funded by the Department of Energy), which manages research projects focused on mitigating critical material constraints, vital to renewable energy technologies such as direct‐drive wind turbines, electric vehicles, and energy‐efficient lighting. We capture three unique aspects of the problem: first, the learning from project progress depends on task‐based stochastic outcomes and a project's percent‐done. Second, the underlying technology's profitability is based on a model of competition. Third, we evaluate the impact of progress across a portfolio of projects based on a manufacturer's capacity addition. We develop a heuristic that produces results that are close to optimal and can thus be used for large problem sizes. The managerial insights from an application of our model to CMI projects include: (i) technology projects that report the percent‐done of a project earlier increase expected manufacturer profit; (ii) careful choice of “safe bets,” that is, technologies with low profitability but a high probability of success, can increase expected manufacturer profit; (iii) a portfolio of projects can increase profits significantly over separate project evaluation; and (iv) dynamic management of project resources can increase overall profit.
Mathematical models are a core component in the foundation of cancer theory and have been developed as clinical tools in precision medicine. Modeling studies for clinical applications often assume an individual’s characteristics can be represented as parameters in a model and are used to explain, predict, and optimize treatment outcomes. However, this approach relies on the identifiability of the underlying mathematical models. In this study, we build on the framework of an observing-system simulation experiment to study the identifiability of several models of cancer growth, focusing on the prognostic parameters of each model. Our results demonstrate that the frequency of data collection, the types of data, such as cancer proxy, and the accuracy of measurements all play crucial roles in determining the identifiability of the model. We also found that highly accurate data can allow for reasonably accurate estimates of some parameters, which may be the key to achieving model identifiability in practice. As more complex models required more data for identification, our results support the idea of using models with a clear mechanism that tracks disease progression in clinical settings. For such a model, the subset of model parameters associated with disease progression naturally minimizes the required data for model identifiability.
Deep learning (DL) models have been popular in earth and environmental modeling and analysis, which exhibit huge potential in capturing and reconstructing the non-linearity of relevant environmental processes. They are extensively used as analytical tools or emulators for multiple domains (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and biogeochemistry). Despite their success, their internal working mechanism remains largely unknown. Such a lack of knowledge hinders the identification of physically consistent models that are fully adaptive to non-stationary climate, as well as the development of physics-informed machine learning such as physics-informed neural network (PINN). To establish preliminary knowledge and framework of such physics representation evaluation, this project focuses on an improved understanding of DL models in the environmental applications. DL models are increasingly applied to environmental modeling and prediction. However, they have been evaluated mostly from a performance perspective, and there is a gap in understanding how they represent the known physics internally. Such knowledge is especially critical when applying DL models under climate change conditions, where new inputs are likely outside the ranges of the training datasets. In this project, we reveal how the known physical processes are represented within DL models from both statistical and mechanistic perspectives. Leveraging the traditional model evaluations that focus more on the accuracies of predictions, we establish a framework that examines both the accuracy and physics representation of DL models. This analysis framework can identify DL models that make the correct predictions based on correct physics, thus enhancing the existing explainable artificial intelligence (explainable-AI) portfolio. It lays a foundation for developing novel metrics to evaluate the emerging DL models in environmental applications. This knowledge also informs the development of physics-informed DL models by revealing the direct connections between the known physical processes and specific model components or structures.
Some grouping is necessary when constructing a Leslie matrix model because it involves discretizing a continuous process of births and deaths. Here, the level of grouping is determined by the number of age classes and frequency of sampling. It is largely unknown what is lost or gained by using fewer age classes, and I address this question using aggregation theory. I derive an aggregator for a Leslie matrix model using weighted least squares, determine what properties an aggregated matrix inherits from the original matrix, evaluate aggregation error, and measure the influence of aggregation on asymptotic and transient behaviors. To gauge transient dynamics, I employ reactivity of the standardized Leslie matrix. I apply the aggregator to 10 Leslie models developed for animal populations drawn from a diverse set of species. Several properties are inherited by the aggregated matrix: (a) it is a Leslie matrix; (b) it is irreducible whenever the original matrix is irreducible; (c) it is primitive whenever the original matrix is primitive; and (d) its stable population growth rate and stable age distribution are consistent with those of the original matrix if the least squares weights are equal to the original stable age distribution. In the application, depending on the population modeled, when the least squares weights do not follow the stable age distribution, the stable population growth rate of the aggregated matrix may or may not be approximately consistent with that of the original matrix. Transient behavior is lost with high aggregation.
This paper presents a TRACE model of a postulated large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) event in a four-loop pressurized water reactor (PWR). The input files have been made publicly available and serve as a starting point for researchers to improve upon or apply to their purposes. The model, based on a legacy PWR model, contains numerous improvements and modifications consistent with US Nuclear Regulatory Commission LBLOCA analysis guidelines. The model is applied to analyze high-burnup (>62 GWD/MTU) fuel behavior during LBLOCA, improving on previous work to provide realistic thermal hydraulic predictions for future fuel performance analyses and experiments related to fission fragment, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). Sensitivity studies are presented to quantify the impact of the vessel-modeling approach, core radial discretization, and other phenomena. In conclusion, the model is intended for research purposes and contains sufficient plant geometric, operational, and safety system details to represent the main physical phenomena pertaining to LBLOCA.
Abstract We introduce variable‐resolution enabled Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM) results simulating historical and future climate conditions at 28 km over South America and 14 km over the Andes. Three 30‐year simulations are performed: a historic (1985–2014), a near future (2030–2059), and an end‐century (2070–2099) simulation under the RCP8.5 scenario. Historic results compare favourably to several temperature and precipitation reanalysis products, though local biases are present, particularly during austral summer. Future simulations highlight broad warming patterns (+3–6°C by end‐century) and heterogeneous precipitation responses across South America that qualitatively agree with prior modelling efforts. Our results reveal that the interaction between temperature and precipitation changes produce shifts in several Köppen–Geiger climates. Notable changes include the near‐elimination of the Andean Tundra or Alpine climates, a 15% decrease in Tropical Rainforests and a Tropical Savannah expansion of 20%. To provide a regionally focused analysis of projected climate change and to illustrate the benefits of variable resolution modelling, we analyse changes in the magnitude and trend in seasonal and daily temperature and precipitation in Chile. We also examined several metrics [e.g., snow water equivalent (SWE), temperatures on wet days, and days below 0°C] to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on the Chilean cryosphere between the end‐of‐century and historic periods, finding wide‐ranging indications of cryospheric decline. These changes are interpreted through reductions in the timing (1–2.5 months earlier peak SWE) and magnitude (200–1,000 mm SWE decreases) of water stored as snow in the Andes, a 10–30% decrease in number of cool season wet days with temperatures below 1°C, and 50–200 fewer days (annually) with minimum temperatures below 0°C. Our aim in producing a high‐resolution dataset of climate projections from VR‐CESM is to support analyses of climate change throughout South America but especially in vulnerable montane regions and to provide additional results for comparison with previous, ongoing, and upcoming modelling efforts.
Phenomenological CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagrams) models, widely used for multicomponent materials, often contain a considerable number of parameters and require fitting using data from a relatively small number of experimental measurements or theoretical calculations. Sometimes these parameters are introduced for the purpose of improving model fits but without clear physical justification, which leads to overparametrized models with poor generalization performance. Automated approaches for optimal model selection based on the available data therefore become critical. Here, in this work, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-based approach is developed for model selection by leveraging the linearity of the CALPHAD model with respect to its parameters to convert the model selection and fitting to a LASSO minimization problem. We demonstrate its utility for thermodynamic modeling of thermochemical hydrogen (TCH) production materials using lanthanum strontium manganite (LSM) as an example. Various TCH-relevant properties, including oxygen stoichiometry as a function of oxygen partial pressure, enthalpy of reduction, and entropy of reduction, are successfully predicted with reasonable accuracy using a minimal set of model parameters. Importantly, the model selection and fitting involve minimal human decision; it can therefore be applied to high-throughput DFT defect calculations and yield efficient workflows for TCH material modeling and optimization.
The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool. This report outlines work towards the development of an integrated, mortar-based cohesive zone framework with mechanical contact. We model debonding of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) layers using a mortar approach, extending the framework used for mechanical contact, using weighted quantities. A bilinear mixed mode traction approach, already used in Jiang et al. (2021), is applied analogously herein to model debonding between TRISO particle layers. The examples include the debonding of the inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) from the silicon carbide (SiC) layers, as well as partial and full debonding of the buffer from the IPyC layers. Both 2D and 3D examples are utilized to demonstrate the superior numerical performance of the new mortar approach, which allows for modeling arbitrarily meshed interfaces (i.e., non-matching discretizations).
The complex multiscale and anisotropic nature of silicon carbide (SiC) ceramic matrix composite (CMC) makes it difficult to accurately model its performance in nuclear applications. The existing models for nuclear grade composite SiC do not account for the microstructural features and how these features can affect the thermal and structural behavior of the cladding and its anisotropic properties. In addition to the microstructural features, the properties of individual constituents of the composites and fiber tow architecture determine the bulk properties. Models for determining the relationship between the individual constituents’ properties and the bulk properties of SiC composites for nuclear applications are absent, although empirical relationships exist in the literature. Here, a hierarchical multiscale modeling approach was presented to address this challenge. This modular approach addressed this difficulty by dividing the various aspects of the composite material into separate models at different length scales, with the evaluated property from the lower-length-scale model serving as an input to the higher-length-scale model. The multiscale model considered the properties of various individual constituents of the composite material (fiber, matrix, and interphase), the porosity in the matrix, the fiber volume fraction, the composite architecture, the tow thickness, etc. By considering inhomogeneous and anisotropic contributions intrinsically, our bottom-up multiscale modeling strategy is naturally physics-informed, bridging constitutive law from micromechanics to meso-mechanics and structural mechanics. The effects that these various physical attributes and thermo-physical properties have on the composite’s bulk thermal properties were easily evaluated and demonstrated through the various analyses presented herein. Since silicon carbide fiber-reinforced SiC CMCs are also promising thermal–structural materials with a broad range of high-end technology applications beyond nuclear applications, we envision that the multiscale modeling method we present here may prove helpful in future efforts to develop and construct reinforced CMCs and other advanced composite nuclear materials, such as MAX phase materials, that can service under harsh environments of ultrahigh temperatures, oxidation, corrosion, and/or irradiation.
In high energy density physics (HEDP) and inertial confinement fusion (ICF), predictive modeling is complicated by uncertainty in parameters that characterize various aspects of the modeled system, such as those characterizing material properties, equation of state (EOS), opacities, and initial conditions. Typically, however, these parameters are not directly observable. What is observed instead is a time sequence of radiographic projections using X-rays. In this work, we define a set of sparse hydrodynamic features derived from the outgoing shock profile and outer material edge, which can be obtained from radiographic measurements, to directly infer such parameters. Our machine learning (ML)-based methodology involves a pipeline of two architectures, a radiograph-to-features network (R2FNet) and a features-to-parameters network (F2PNet), that are trained independently and later combined to approximate a posterior distribution for the parameters from radiographs. We show that the machine learning architectures are able to accurately infer initial conditions and EOS parameters, and that the estimated parameters can be used in a hydrodynamics code to obtain density fields, shocks, and material interfaces that satisfy thermodynamic and hydrodynamic consistency. Finally, we demonstrate that features resulting from an unknown EOS model can be successfully mapped onto parameters of a chosen analytical EOS model, implying that network predictions are learning physics, with a degree of invariance to the underlying choice of EOS model. To the best of our knowledge, our framework is the first demonstration of recovering both thermodynamic and hydrodynamic consistent density fields from noisy radiographs.
Fully defined physics-based building energy models can accurately represent building systems; however, generating models based on high-level parameters is time consuming and simulation time of complex models can be slow. This article discusses the development of a Metamodelling Framework to create metamodels from a building energy modelling dataset. The framework generates metamodels using either linear regression, random forests, or support vector regressions. A fifth-generation district heating and cooling system analysis use case was used to motivate the development of the framework. The use case required quick and accurate representations of annual building loads reported hourly. Typical annual building modelling approaches can result in a runtime of 10 min. The metamodels runtime was reduced to less than 10 s to load and run an annual simulation with user-defined covariates. The results of the metamodel performance and an abbreviated topology analysis based on the motivating use case will be presented.
Additive Manufacturing (AM), referred to as 3D printing, has emerged as a key pillar of Industry 4.0 enabling layer-by-layer fabrication of intricate geometries from CAD models. In parallel, Large Language Models (LLMs), deep learning models for natural language generation trained on vast text corpora, have demonstrated unprecedented capabilities in understanding and generating human-like text. The convergence of these trends opens new opportunities at the intersection of AM and AI/ML, where LLMs can assist engineers and researchers in design, manufacture planning, and knowledge discovery. Recent academic work has begun to explore LLM applications in AM and adjacent fields, such as material science, mechanical engineering, and design for additive manufacturing. This exploration ranges from intelligent process planning to domain-specific knowledge retrieval. This survey provides a comprehensive review of current developments, focusing on peer-reviewed literature contributions that apply, adapt, and advance LLMs in general and domain-specific domains. We analyze state-of-the-art (SOTA) techniques, such as fine-tuning foundational models for specific domains, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) pipelines, knowledge graph integration, and delve into the architectures and evaluation methods employed. The goal of this survey is to inform researchers and practitioners of the current capabilities and limitations of LLMs in general and in domain-specific applications, and to outline how these models are being tailored to meet the requirements of these applications.
Complex systems frequently exhibit multi-way, rather than pairwise, interactions. These group interactions can- not be faithfully modeled as collections of pairwise interactions using graphs and instead require hypergraphs. However, methods that analyze hypergraphs directly, rather than via lossy graph reductions, remain limited. Hypergraph motifs hold promise in this regard, as motif patterns serve as building blocks for larger group interactions which are inexpressible by graphs. Recent work has focused on categorizing and counting hypergraph motifs based on the existence of nodes in hyperedge intersection regions. Here, we argue that the relative sizes of hyperedge inter- sections within motifs contain varied and valuable information. We propose a suite of efficient algorithms for finding top-k triplets of hyperedges based on optimizing the sizes of these intersection patterns. This formulation uncovers interesting local patterns of interaction, finding hyperedge triplets that either (1) are the least similar with each other, (2) have the highest pairwise but not groupwise correlation, or (3) are the most similar with each other. We formalize this as a combinatorial optimization problem and design efficient algorithms based on filtering hyperedges. Our comprehensive experimental evaluation shows that the resulting hyperedge triplets yield insightful information on real-world hypergraphs. Our approach is also orders of magnitude faster than a naive baseline implementation.
We present the ensemble method of prescreening-based subset selection to improve ensemble predictions of Earth system models (ESMs). In the prescreening step, the independent ensemble members are categorized based on their ability to reproduce physically-interpretable features of interest that are regional and problem-specific. The ensemble size is then updated by selecting the subsets that improve the performance of the ensemble prediction using decision relevant metrics. We apply the method to improve the prediction of red tide along the West Florida Shelf in the Gulf of Mexico, which affects coastal water quality and has substantial environmental and socioeconomic impacts on the State of Florida. Red tide is a common name for harmful algal blooms that occur worldwide, which result from large concentrations of aquatic microorganisms, such as dinoflagellate Karenia brevis, a toxic single celled protist. We present ensemble method for improving red tide prediction using the high resolution ESMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and reanalysis data. The study results highlight the importance of prescreening-based subset selection with decision relevant metrics in identifying non-representative models, understanding their impact on ensemble prediction, and improving the ensemble prediction. These findings are pertinent to other regional environmental management applications and climate services. Additionally, our analysis follows the FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship such that data and analysis tools are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable. As such, the interactive Colab notebooks developed for data analysis are annotated in the paper. This allows for efficient and transparent testing of the results’ sensitivity to different modeling assumptions. Moreover, this research serves as a starting point to build upon for red tide management, using the publicly available CMIP, Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and reanalysis data.