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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

Combined trellis coding and feedforward processing for MSS applications

The idea of using a multiple (more than two) symbol observation interval to improve error probability performance is applied to differential detection of trellis coded MPSK over a mobile satellite (fading) channel. Results are obtained via computer simulation. It is shown that only a slight increase (e.g., one symbol) in the length of the observation interval will provide a significant improvement in bit error probability performance both in AWGN and fading environments.

Divsalar, D.↗
DOE OSTI2015

STAR CLUSTER PROPERTIES IN TWO LEGUS GALAXIES COMPUTED WITH STOCHASTIC STELLAR POPULATION SYNTHESIS MODELS

We investigate a novel Bayesian analysis method, based on the Stochastically Lighting Up Galaxies (slug) code, to derive the masses, ages, and extinctions of star clusters from integrated light photometry. Unlike many analysis methods, slug correctly accounts for incomplete initial mass function (IMF) sampling, and returns full posterior probability distributions rather than simply probability maxima. We apply our technique to 621 visually confirmed clusters in two nearby galaxies, NGC 628 and NGC 7793, that are part of the Legacy Extragalactic UV Survey (LEGUS). LEGUS provides Hubble Space Telescope photometry in the NUV, U, B, V, and I bands. We analyze the sensitivity of the derived cluster properties to choices of prior probability distribution, evolutionary tracks, IMF, metallicity, treatment of nebular emission, and extinction curve. We find that slug's results for individual clusters are insensitive to most of these choices, but that the posterior probability distributions we derive are often quite broad, and sometimes multi-peaked and quite sensitive to the choice of priors. In contrast, the properties of the cluster population as a whole are relatively robust against all of these choices. We also compare our results from slug to those derived with a conventional non-stochastic fitting code, Yggdrasil. We show that slug's stochastic models are generally a better fit to the observations than the deterministic ones used by Yggdrasil. However, the overall properties of the cluster populations recovered by both codes are qualitatively similar.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Geo-Statistical Approach to Estimating Asteroid Exploration Parameters

NASA's vision for space exploration calls for a human visit to a near earth asteroid (NEA). Potential human operations at an asteroid include exploring a number of sites and analyzing and collecting multiple surface samples at each site. In this paper two approaches to formulation and scheduling of human exploration activities are compared given uncertain information regarding the asteroid prior to visit. In the first approach a probability model was applied to determine best estimates of mission duration and exploration activities consistent with exploration goals and existing prior data about the expected aggregate terrain information. These estimates were compared to a second approach or baseline plan where activities were constrained to fit within an assumed mission duration. The results compare the number of sites visited, number of samples analyzed per site, and the probability of achieving mission goals related to surface characterization for both cases.

probability↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simple Acceptance Decisions and Acceptance Risk

Acceptance risk may be estimated using cumulative probability distribution functions applied to populations of measurands and test measurement values. “Simple acceptance” is a decision rule that sets the acceptance range of a test result equal to the tolerance range specification. While acceptance risk is comprised of both consumer risk and producer risk, this paper compares the effects of simple acceptance decision rules and guardbanding decision rules on consumer risk. Consumer risk is also known as the probability of false acceptance. The terms describe the risk of accepting test results as passing when the actual values exceed specification limits. False acceptance is only possible when the true value of a measurand is out of tolerance and the test result indicates that the measurand is within tolerance. Metrologists generally have some information about the test uncertainty regarding a specific acceptance test result. Along with a general lack of knowledge regarding the measurand population parameters, the complicated interplay between risk, dispersion, and central values generally prevents calibration laboratories from fully characterizing acceptance probabilities. Organizations that model the measurand populations can reduce consumer risk by avoiding certification of items whose measurand populations are not well centered. The models in this paper present a recurring trend: guardbanding reduces nonnegligible risks of false acceptance when compared to simple acceptance. However, guardbanding is not the most effective means of acceptance risk mitigation. Systematic characterization of measurand populations can provide the information a calibration laboratory needs to reliably control acceptance risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2013

Adaptive scapula bone remodeling computational simulation: Relevance to regenerative medicine

Shoulder arthroplasty success has been attributed to many factors including, bone quality, soft tissue balancing, surgeon experience, and implant design. Improved long-term success is primarily limited by glenoid implant loosening. Prosthesis design examines materials and shape and determines whether the design should withstand a lifetime of use. Finite element (FE) analyses have been extensively used to study stresses and strains produced in implants and bone. However, these static analyses only measure a moment in time and not the adaptive response to the altered environment produced by the therapeutic intervention. Computational analyses that integrate remodeling rules predict how bone will respond over time. Recent work has shown that subject-specific two- and three dimensional adaptive bone remodeling models are feasible and valid. Feasibility and validation were achieved computationally, simulating bone remodeling using an intact human scapula, initially resetting the scapular bone material properties to be uniform, numerically simulating sequential loading, and comparing the bone remodeling simulation results to the actual scapula’s material properties. Three-dimensional scapula FE bone model was created using volumetric computed tomography images. Muscle and joint load and boundary conditions were applied based on values reported in the literature. Internal bone remodeling was based on element strain-energy density. Initially, all bone elements were assigned a homogeneous density. All loads were applied for 10 iterations. After every iteration, each bone element’s remodeling stimulus was compared to its corresponding reference stimulus and its material properties modified. The simulation achieved convergence. At the end of the simulation the predicted and actual specimen bone apparent density were plotted and compared. Location of high and low predicted bone density was comparable to the actual specimen. High predicted bone density was greater than actual specimen. Low predicted bone density was lower than actual specimen. Differences were probably due to applied muscle and joint reaction loads, boundary conditions, and values of constants used. Work is underway to study this. Nonetheless, the results demonstrate three dimensional bone remodeling simulation validity and potential. Such adaptive predictions take physiological bone remodeling simulations one step closer to reality. Computational analyses are needed that integrate biological remodeling rules and predict how bone will respond over time. We expect the combination of computational static stress analyses together with adaptive bone remodeling simulations to become effective tools for regenerative medicine research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

The performance of trellis-coded MDPSK with multiple symbol detection

The idea of using a multiple (more than two) symbol observation interval to improve error probability performance is applied to differential detection of trellis-coded multiple phase-shift keying (MPSK) over an additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel. An equivalent Euclidean distance measure per trellis branch is determined for this detection scheme. This is used to define an augmented (larger multiplicity) trellis code whose distance measure is the conventional squared Euclidean distance typical of conventional trellis-coded modulation on the AWGN. Such an augmented multiple trellis code is a convenient mathematical tool for simplifying the analysis. Results are obtained by a combination of analysis (upper Chernoff bounds and asymptotic large-SNR approximations) and computer simulation. It is shown that only a slight increase (e.g., one symbol) in the length of the observation interval will provide a significant improvement in bit error probability performance.

Divsalar, Dariush↗
DOE OSTI2025

A DECADE of dwarfs: first detection of weak lensing around spectroscopically confirmed low-mass galaxies

We present the first detection of weak gravitational lensing around spectroscopically confirmed dwarf galaxies, using the large overlap between DESI DR1 spectroscopic data and DECADE/DES weak lensing catalogs. A clean dwarf galaxy sample with well-defined redshift and stellar mass cuts enables excess surface mass density measurements in two stellar mass bins ($\log \rm{M}_*=[8.2, 9.2]~M_\odot$ and $\log \rm{M}_*=[9.2, 10.2]~M_\odot$), with signal-to-noise ratios of $5.6$ and $12.4$ respectively. This signal-to-noise drops to $4.5$ and $9.2$ respectively for measurements without applying individual inverse probability (IIP) weights, which mitigates fiber incompleteness from DESI's targeting. The measurements are robust against variations in stellar mass estimates, photometric shredding, and lensing calibration systematics. Using a simulation-based modeling framework with stellar mass function priors, we constrain the stellar mass-halo mass relation and find a satellite fraction of $\simeq 0.3$, which is higher than previous photometric studies but $1.5σ$ lower than $Λ$CDM predictions. We find that IIP weights have a significant impact on lensing measurements and can change the inferred $f_{\rm{sat}}$ by a factor of two, highlighting the need for accurate fiber incompleteness corrections for dwarf galaxy samples. Our results open a new observational window into the galaxy-halo connection at low masses, showing that future massively multiplexed spectroscopic observations and weak lensing data will enable stringent tests of galaxy formation models and $Λ$CDM predictions.

To, Chun-Hao [Chicago U., Astron. Astrophys. Ctr.;↗
DOE OSTI2018

Multivariate Analogs of Classical Univariate Discrete Distributions and Their Properties

Some discrete distributions such as Bernoulli, binomial, geometric, negative binomial, Poisson, Polya–Aeppli, and others play an important role in applied problems of probability theory and mathematical statistics. We propose a variant of a multivariate distribution whose components have a given univariate discrete distribution. In fact we consider some very general variant of the so-called reduction method. We find the explicit form of the mass function and generating function of such distribution and study their properties. We prove that our construction is unique in natural exponential families of distributions. Our results are the generalization and unification of many results of other authors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating building occupancy: a machine learning system for day, night, and episodic events

Building occupancy research increasingly emphasizes understanding the social and physical dynamics of how people occupy space. Opportunities in the open source domain including social media, Volunteered Geographic Information, crowdsourcing, and sensor data have proliferated, resulting in the exploration of building occupancy dynamics at varying spatiotemporal scales. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory, research into building occupancies through the development of a global learning framework that accommodates exploitation of open source authoritative sources, including governmental census and surveys, journal articles, real estate databases, and more, to report national and subnational building occupancies across the world continues through the Population Density Tables (PDT) project. This probabilistic learning system accommodates expert knowledge, experience, and open-source data to capture local, socioeconomic, and cultural information about human activity. It does so through a systematic process of data harmonization techniques in the development of observation models for over 50 building types to dynamically update baseline estimates and report probabilistic diurnal and episodic building occupancy estimates. This discussion will explore how PDT is implemented at scale and expanded based on the development of observation model classes and will explain how to interpret and spatially apply the reported probability occupancy estimates and uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Probabilistic limit of detection for ricin identification using a shotgun proteomics assay

Robust and highly specific methods for the detection of the protein toxin ricin are of interest to the law enforcement community. In previous studies, methods based on liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry shotgun proteomics have been proposed. The successful implementation of this approach relies on specific data evaluation criteria addressing (1) the quality of the mass spectrometric data, (2) the confidence of peptide identifications (peptide-spectrum matches), and (3) the number and sequence specificity of peptides detected. We present such data evaluation criteria, and use a novel approach to establish the limit of detection for this ricin assay. Specifically, we use logistic regression to determine the probability of detection for individual ricin peptides at different concentrations. We then apply basic rules from probability theory, combining these individual peptide probabilities into an overall assay limit of detection. This procedure yields an assay limit of detection for ricin at 42.5 ng on column or 21.25 ng/µL for a 2-µL injection. We also show that, in spite of the conventional wisdom that detergents are deleterious to mass spectrometric analyses, the presence of Tween-20 did not prevent detection of ricin peptides, and indeed assays performed in buffers that included Tween-20 gave better results than assays performed using other buffer formulations with or without detergent removal.

Heller, Natalie C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validation of a synthetic fast ion loss detector model for Wendelstein 7-X

Abstract We present the first validated synthetic diagnostic for fast ion loss detectors (FILDs) in the Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) stellarator. This model has been developed on, and validated against experimental data from, a FILD provided by the National Institute for Fusion Science (NIFS-FILD), with potential future applicability to the existing Faraday Cup FILD (FC-FILD) on W7-X as well as the scintillating FILD (S-FILD) currently under development. A workflow combining Monte Carlo codes BEAMS3D and ASCOT5 is used to track fast ions produced by neutral beam injection from the moment of ionization until they are thermalized or lost from the last closed flux surface, and from there to a virtual plane which serves as a projection of the entrance aperture to the FILD. Simulations in ASCOT5 are analyzed via a geometric method to determine the probability of transmission through the FILD aperture and onto the detector as a function of normalized momentum, pitch angle, gyrophase, and position at the virtual plane. This probability is then applied to the simulated ions arriving from the plasma, producing a simulated signal from a computationally tractable number of simulated fast ions. Simulated signals are presented for two W7-X experiments with neutral beam injection and quantitatively compared with experimental measurements from the NIFS-FILD diagnostic. An estimate of the frequency of charge-exchange with neutral particles in the edge is performed, and it is found that this process may have a significant impact on the measured signals.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Constraining the mass and radius of neutron stars in globular clusters

In this paper, we analyse observations of eight quiescent low-mass X-ray binaries in globular clusters and combine them to determine the neutron star mass–radius curve and the equation of state of dense matter. We determine the effect that several uncertainties may have on our results, including uncertainties in the distance, the atmosphere composition, the neutron star maximum mass, the neutron star mass distribution, the possible presence of a hotspot on the neutron star surface, and the prior choice for the equation of state of dense matter. The distance uncertainty is implemented in a new Gaussian blurring method that can be directly applied to the probability distribution over mass and radius. We find that the radius of a 1.4 solar mass neutron star is most likely from 10 to 14 km and that tighter constraints are only possible with stronger assumptions about the nature of the neutron stars, the systematics of the observations, or the nature of dense matter. Finally, strong phase transitions in the equation of state are preferred, and in this case, the radius is likely smaller than 12 km. However, radii larger than 12 km are preferred if the neutron stars have uneven temperature distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Corrective Control to Handle Forecast Uncertainty: A Chance Constrained Optimal Power Flow

Higher shares of electricity generation from renewable energy sources and market liberalization is increasing uncertainty in power systems operation. At the same time, operation is becoming more flexible with improved control systems and new technology such as phase shifting transformers (PSTs) and high voltage direct current connections (HVDC). Previous studies have shown that the use of corrective control in response to outages contributes to a reduction in operating cost, while maintaining N-1 security. In this work, we propose a method to extend the use of corrective control of PSTs and HVDCs to react to uncertainty. We characterize the uncertainty as continuous random variables, and define the corrective control actions through affine control policies. This allows us to efficiently model control reactions to a large number of uncertainty sources. The control policies are then included in a chance constrained optimal power flow formulation, which guarantees that the system constraints are enforced with a desired probability. Lastly, by applying an analytical reformulation of the chance constraints, we obtain a second-order cone problem for which we develop an efficient solution algorithm. In a case study for the IEEE 118 bus system, we show that corrective control for uncertainty leads to a decrease in operational cost, while maintaining system security. Further, we demonstrate the scalability of the method by solving the problem for the IEEE 300 bus and the Polish system test cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

New Identifications and Multiwavelength Properties of Extragalactic Fermi Gamma-Ray Sources in the SPT-SZ Survey Field

he fourth Fermi Large Area Telescope catalog (4FGL) contains 5064 $\ γ$-ray sources detected at high significance, but 26% of them still lack associations at other wavelengths. The SPT-SZ survey, conducted between 2008 and 2011 with the South Pole Telescope (SPT), covers 2500 deg 2 of the southern sky in three millimeter-wavelength (mm) bands and was used to construct a catalog of nearly 5000 emissive sources. In this study, we introduce a new cross-matching scheme to search for multiwavelength counterparts of extragalactic $\ γ$-ray sources using a mm catalog. We apply a Poissonian probability to evaluate the rate of spurious false associations and compare the multiwavelength associations from the radio, mm, near-infrared, and X-ray with 4FGL $\ γ$-ray sources. In the SPT-SZ survey field, 85% of 4FGL sources are associated with mm counterparts. These mm sources include 94% of previously associated 4FGL sources and 56% of previously unassociated 4FGL sources. The latter group contains 40 4FGL sources for which SPT has provided the first identified counterparts. Nearly all of the SPT-associated 4FGL sources can be described as flat-spectrum radio quasars or blazars. We find that the mm band is the most efficient wavelength for detecting $\ γ$-ray blazars when considering both completeness and purity. We also demonstrate that the mm band correlates better to the $\ γ$-ray band than the radio or X-ray bands. With the next generation of CMB experiments, this technique can be extended to greater sensitivities and more sky area to further complete the identifications of the remaining unknown $\ γ$-ray blazars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1969

On the bound of first excursion probability

Method has been developed to improve the lower bound of the first excursion probability that can apply to the problem with either constant or time-dependent barriers. The method requires knowledge of the joint density function of the random process at two arbitrary instants.

Yang, J. N.↗
NASA NTRS2021

The GF Convection Parameterization: Recent Developments, Extensions, and Applications

Recent developments and options in the GF (Grell and Freitas, 2014, Freitas et al.,2018) convection parameterization are presented. The parameterization has been expanded to atrimodal spectral size to simulate three convection modes: shallow, congestus and deep. Incontrast to usual entrainment/detrainment assumptions, we assume that Beta Functions (BFs),commonly applied to represent Probability Density Functions (PDF’s), can be used tocharacterize the vertical mass flux profiles for the three modes, and use the BFs to deriveentrainment and detrainment rates. We also added a new closure for non-equilibrium convectionthat improved the simulation of the diurnal cycle of convection, with a better representation ofthe transition from shallow to deep convection regimes over land. The transport of chemicalconstituents (including wet deposition) can be treated inside the GF scheme. The tracer transportis handled in flux form and is mass conserving. Finally, the cloud microphysics has beenextended to include the ice phase to simulate the conversion from liquid water to ice in updraftswith resulting additional heat release and the melting from snow to rain.

Saulo R De Freitas↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Survey of Mathematical Structures for Lunar Networks

To sustain the current and increasing accessibility of space, a scalable communications infrastructure (i.e. the Solar System Internet, SSI) is necessary. The goal of this paper is to begin the discovery of the fundamental underlying mathematical structure of space networks to help the research community harness these structures for algorithm development and optimization. To ensure the applicability of the research, the approaches are considered through the lens of simulated scenarios inspired by the Artemis Back-to-the-Moon mission set for 2024. We note that any approach to an SSI must fit under the umbrella of Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN), due to celestial mobility, high link latencies, high variance in link latencies, disconnections, lack of end-to-end paths, and so on. These difficulties are exacerbated by the fact that the underlying structure of a space network is a time-evolving network and may experience multiple discontinuities in its topology. In this paper we propose several novel approaches to a mathematical foundation for Delay Tolerant Networking Theory that fall outside the traditional scope of temporal network theory. These techniques include methods from Topological Data Analysis, Dynamic Graph Analysis, Applied Algebraic Geometry, Probability Theory, and Game Theory. Some of these methods include tools adapted to the study of dynamic metric spaces, such as zigzag persistent homology and their higher parameter analogs. We find that several of these methods target desired engineering outcomes such as discovery and automatic sub-netting. While each approach is theoretical, they are also algorithmic in nature and offer immediate practical applications. The paper concludes with comparisons of the various methods along with suggestions for future work.

Delay tolerant networking↗