The Friendly Argument Notation (FAN)
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C Michael Holloway↗
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The Overarching Properties and Overarching Properties Related Arguments: Part 1
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C. Michael Holloway↗
The Overarching Properties and Overarching Properties Related Arguments: Part 2
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C Michael Holloway↗
The Overarching Properties and Overarching Properties Related Arguments: Part 3
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C Michael Holloway↗
Arguments for the Physical Nature of the Triggered Ion-Acoustic Waves Observed on the Parker Solar Probe
Triggered ion-acoustic waves are a pair of coupled waves observed in the previously unexplored plasma regime near the Sun. They may be capable of producing important effects on the solar wind. Because this wave mode has not been observed or studied previously and it is not fully understood, the issue of whether it has a natural origin or is an instrumental artifact can be raised. This paper discusses this issue by examining 13 features of the data such as whether the triggered ion-acoustic waves are electrostatic, whether they are both narrowband, whether they satisfy the requirement that the electric field is parallel to the k-vector, whether the phase difference between the electric field and the density fluctuations is 90°, whether the two waves have the same phase velocity as they must if they are coupled, whether the phase velocity is that of an ion-acoustic wave, whether they are associated with other parameters such as electron heating, whether the electric field instrument otherwise performed as expected, etc. The conclusion reached from these analyses is that triggered ion-acoustic waves are highly likely to have a natural origin although the possibility that they are artifacts unrelated to processes occurring in the natural plasma cannot be eliminated. This inability to absolutely rule out artifacts as the source of a measured result is a characteristic of all measurements.
Electric fields↗
Towards a Formal Basis for Modular Safety Cases
Safety assurance using argument-based safety cases is an accepted best-practice in many safety-critical sectors. Goal Structuring Notation (GSN), which is widely used for presenting safety arguments graphically, provides a notion of modular arguments to support the goal of incremental certification. Despite the efforts at standardization, GSN remains an informal notation whereas the GSN standard contains appreciable ambiguity especially concerning modular extensions. This, in turn, presents challenges when developing tools and methods to intelligently manipulate modular GSN arguments. This paper develops the elements of a theory of modular safety cases, leveraging our previous work on formalizing GSN arguments. Using example argument structures we highlight some ambiguities arising through the existing guidance, present the intuition underlying the theory, clarify syntax, and address modular arguments, contracts, well-formedness and well-scopedness of modules. Based on this theory, we have a preliminary implementation of modular arguments in our toolset, AdvoCATE.
Safety↗
Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases
Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observations
Denney, Ewen↗
Optimisation of the Future Routine Orbit for Mars Express
Mars Express (MEX), the first planetary mission of the European Space Agency (ESA), reached Mars on December 25th 2003. Since then it is performing routine operations. Its operational phase had to cover one Martian year, with the possibility of an extension for a second Martian year (i.e. until November 2007). The end of the mission extension is approaching but, given the good health of the payload instruments and the high science return of the mission, there is a strong will to achieve further extensions. Mars Express is also seen as an important asset, capable to provide relay functions for future Martian missions. The ESA Science Program Committee has recently approved a second extension of the MEX mission until May 2009 and even further extensions are possible. Mars Express has an eccentric quasi-polar orbit with a period of approximately 6.72 hours and a pericentre height of about 300 km. Science observations are mainly performed at pericentre (but not only). In addition the orbit has a resonance of 11 revolutions per 3 Martian days. This means that ground tracks corresponding to orbits separated by 11 revolutions are adjacent, such that a given area can be covered by the on-board camera without leaving gaps. The J2 effect of Mars causes a drift of both ascending node and argument of pericentre. The drift of argument of pericentre makes it possible to observe periodically all Mars latitudes from close distance. Illumination conditions at pericentre are influenced by both the drift of the argument of pericentre and the drift of ascending node, as well as by the rotation of Mars around the Sun. The original MEX routine orbit was optimized for the duration of the nominal mission and extension, such that it produced a balanced share of day-side observations (for the optical instruments) and night-side observations (for the radar). The orbit was thus not optimized for the time beyond the assumed extension. Indeed, the evolution of the ascending node and argument of pericentre would cause in the following years a drift of the pericentre towards night-side observation conditions, hence uninteresting for the optical instruments. In order to prevent this an optimisation process for the future routine orbit has taken place. The share between day-side and night-side observations can be controlled by adjusting the drift of argument of pericentre and ascending node. This can in particular be achieved by changing the semimajor axis, eccentricity and/or inclination. A change of inclination is inefficient compared to a change in semimajor axis and eccentricity, and has therefore been discarded. An in-plane maneuvre can be performed to change both semi-major axis and eccentricity, and thus the period of the orbit. Although an apocentre manoeuvre is cheaper in terms of deltaV, it would result in raising the pericentre height, which is unfavourable for close observations. Hence a pericentre manoeuvre is proposed, which will increase the apocentre height. A repeat cycle is still required to allow mapping areas with adjacent ground tracks, so the change of semimajor axis must result in a new resonance. Resonances 18:5, 25:7 and 7:2 have been considered as potential candidates. The resulting long term evolution of the observation conditions has been analysed. Finally it has been decided to perform a change of orbit to reach the 18:5. Another aspect of the optimisation process is the control of the ground track. The previous MEX reference trajectory included regular maneuvres at every apocentre in order to adjust the orbital period, such that the separation of the ground tracks would be optimal, regardless of the latitude of pericentre. The implementation of the actual delatVs on-board was done partly by optimizing the attitude of reaction-wheel desaturation activities. Despite of it, this strategy has a significant propellant cost, because it prevents to optimize reaction wheel de-saturation activities to minimize propellant consumption. Therore, with the aim at preserving propellant resources for a long time extension it has been agreed to stop the ground-track control. This requires now a more accurate science operation planning, with improved attitude pointing control. Finally, the approach to phase Mars Express to provide back-up relay functions for NASA Phoenix landing is explained. In the context of the routine trajectory optimisation a new requirement for close fly-bys at Phobos, with different observation geometries, has been specified. The approach to fulfill this requirement is explained.
Carranza, Manuel↗
Retrospectively Documenting Satisfaction of the Overarching Properties: An Exploratory Prototype
Software-intensive aviation systems are typically developed in accordance with recognized development process, safety analysis, and software development standards such as SAE ARP4754A, SAE ARP4761, and RTCA DO-178C. Efforts to streamline assurance processes and make them flexible enough to handle future assurance challenges have produced the Overarching Properties (OPs) for airworthiness approval. Each of the three OPs is a property systems must possess to be certifiable. There is no mandated means of documenting possession of the OPs. To explore possible means, we have prepared retrospective documentation showing that a specimen software system possesses the OPs. The specimen system, Safeguard, enforces geofencing restrictions on unmanned aerial vehicles. Our OP-possession case for its airborne component comprises eight arguments in the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN): a main argument for each OP and five cross-cutting auxiliary arguments. We present this argument as an example for discussion and further research, e.g., into means of assessing OP possession.
safety case↗
Explaining compact groups as change alignments
The physical nature of the apparently densest groups of galaxies, known as compact groups is a topic of some recent controversy, despite the detailed observations of a well-defined catalog of 100 isolated compact groups compiled by Hickson (1982). Whereas many authors have espoused the view that compact groups are bound systems, typically as dense as they appear in projection on the sky (e.g., Williams & Rood 1987; Sulentic 1987; Hickson & Rood 1988), others see them as the result of chance configurations within larger systems, either in 1D (chance alignments: Mamon 1986; Walke & Mamon 1989), or in 3D (transient cores: Rose 1979). As outlined in the companion review to this contribution (Mamon, in these proceedings), the implication of Hickson's compact groups (HCGs) being dense bound systems is that they would then constitute the densest isolated systems of galaxies in the Universe and the privileged site for galaxy interactions. In a previous paper (Mamon 1986), the author reviewed the arguments given for the different theories of compact groups. Since then, a dozen papers have been published on the subject, including a thorough and perceptive review by White (1990), thus more than doubling the amount written on the subject. Here, the author first enumerates the arguments that he brought up in 1986 substantiating the chance alignment hypothesis, then he reviews the current status of the numerous recent arguments arguing against chance alignments and/or for the bound dense group hypothesis (both for the majority of HCGs but not all of them), and finally he reconsiders each one of these anti-chance alignment arguments and shows that, rather than being discredited, the chance alignment hypothesis remains a fully consistent explanation for the nature of compact groups.
Mamon, Gary A.↗
Heikkila's mechanism for impulsive plasma transport through the magnetopause - A reexamination
This paper reexamines arguments formulated and restated by Heikkila to the effect that a magnetosheath plasma cloud having 'excess' momentum which impinges on the dayside magnetopause boundary is able to flow continuously through the boundary onto both open and closed flux tubes in the interior. It is shown that the argument used to arrive at this conclusion is not correct. The error in the argument concerns the nature of the flow which is associated with the induction electric field produced by the perturbed current layer, which was assumed by Heikkila to be such as to keep the plasma jet just moving with the boundary. Heikkila's argument, correctly applied, does not lead to 'impulsive transport' of plasma through the magnetopause.
Owen, C. J.↗
Fossil Record of Precambrian Life on Land
The argument that the earth's early ocean was up to two times modern salinity was published in 'Nature' and presented at the 1998 Annual Meeting of the Geological Society of America in Toronto. The argument is bolstered by chemical data for fluid inclusions in Archean black smokers. The inclusions were 1.7 times the modern salinity causing the authors to interpret the parent fluids as evaporite brines (in a deep marine setting). I reinterpreted the data in terms of the predicted value of high Archean salinities. If the arguments I presented are on track, early life was either halophilic or non-marine. Halophiles are not among the most primitive organisms based on RNA sequencing, so here is an a priori argument that non-marine environments may have been the site of most early biologic evolution. This result carries significant implications for the issue of past life on Mars or current life on the putative sub-ice oceans on Europa and possibly Callisto. If the Cl/H 2 O ratio on these objects is similar to that of the earth, then oceans and oceanic sediments are probably not the preferred sites for early life. On Mars, this means that non-marine deposits such as caliche in basalt may be an overlooked potential sample target.
Paul Knauth↗
MSLICE Sequencing
MSLICE Sequencing is a graphical tool for writing sequences and integrating them into RML files, as well as for producing SCMF files for uplink. When operated in a testbed environment, it also supports uplinking these SCMF files to the testbed via Chill. This software features a free-form textural sequence editor featuring syntax coloring, automatic content assistance (including command and argument completion proposals), complete with types, value ranges, unites, and descriptions from the command dictionary that appear as they are typed. The sequence editor also has a "field mode" that allows tabbing between arguments and displays type/range/units/description for each argument as it is edited. Color-coded error and warning annotations on problematic tokens are included, as well as indications of problems that are not visible in the current scroll range. "Quick Fix" suggestions are made for resolving problems, and all the features afforded by modern source editors are also included such as copy/cut/paste, undo/redo, and a sophisticated find-and-replace system optionally using regular expressions. The software offers a full XML editor for RML files, which features syntax coloring, content assistance and problem annotations as above. There is a form-based, "detail view" that allows structured editing of command arguments and sequence parameters when preferred. The "project view" shows the user s "workspace" as a tree of "resources" (projects, folders, and files) that can subsequently be opened in editors by double-clicking. Files can be added, deleted, dragged-dropped/copied-pasted between folders or projects, and these operations are undoable and redoable. A "problems view" contains a tabular list of all problems in the current workspace. Double-clicking on any row in the table opens an editor for the appropriate sequence, scrolling to the specific line with the problem, and highlighting the problematic characters. From there, one can invoke "quick fix" as described above to resolve the issue. Once resolved, saving the file causes the problem to be removed from the problem view.
Crockett, Thomas M.↗
Querying Safety Cases
Querying a safety case to show how the various stakeholders' concerns about system safety are addressed has been put forth as one of the benefits of argument-based assurance (in a recent study by the Health Foundation, UK, which reviewed the use of safety cases in safety-critical industries). However, neither the literature nor current practice offer much guidance on querying mechanisms appropriate for, or available within, a safety case paradigm. This paper presents a preliminary approach that uses a formal basis for querying safety cases, specifically Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) argument structures. Our approach semantically enriches GSN arguments with domain-specific metadata that the query language leverages, along with its inherent structure, to produce views. We have implemented the approach in our toolset AdvoCATE, and illustrate it by application to a fragment of the safety argument for an Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) being developed at NASA Ames. We also discuss the potential practical utility of our query mechanism within the context of the existing framework for UAS safety assurance.
Safety Case↗
Aggregating Confidence: A Problem and A Solution
This paper has two main purposes: to articulate a concern about assessing arguments based on confidence; and to provide an assessment procedure which takes this concern into account. The concern is that confidence is a tricky notion for non-deductive Arguments: doubts inherent in Reasoning coalesces with doubts inherent in Premises. And, within a Compound Argument, this may happen many times over, thus accumulating in unpredictable ways. We explain two procedures we have developed to help address the concern in a methodical way.
language↗
Smooth splitting and zeros from on-shell recursion
We describe a new approach to understanding the origins of recently discovered “hidden zeros” and “smooth splitting” of tree-level amplitudes in Tr ϕ 3 , Non-Linear Sigma Model (NLSM), Yang-Mill-Scalar (YMS) and the special Galileon. Introducing a new type of linear shift in kinematic space we demonstrate that the mysterious splitting formulae follow from a simple contour integration argument in the style of on-shell recursion. The argument makes use of only standard notions of tree-level factorization on propagators, but assumes improved UV behavior in the form of the absence of a residue at infinity. In the case of Tr ϕ 3 and NLSM this is proven by identifying our shift as a special case of a more general construction called a g-vector shift; in the case of YMS it remains an unproven conjecture. This recursive perspective leads to numerous new results: we derive generalizations of the splitting formulae on more relaxed near-zero kinematics, including interesting new kinematic limits in which the amplitude splits into a triple-product; we also demonstrate that the uncolored special Galileon model has improved UV scaling and hence also splits. We also investigate the possible realization of hidden zeros in four dimensions. The conditions under which the dimensionality constraints are compatible with zero kinematics is investigated in detail for Tr ϕ 3 and YMS; for the latter we find they can be realized only with certain restrictions on external helicity states. The realizable 4d zeros are proven by a similar recursive argument based on BCFW and is found to generalize to a new class of intrinsically 4d “helicity zeros” present in all sectors of YM and also gravity.
effective field theories↗
Competition between roughness and strength for scale-dependent surfaces
Rocks famously have scale-dependent strength, yet the actual dependence is notoriously hard to measure or incorporate into any theoretical framework. Natural rough surfaces present an opportunity to solve the problem. Surfaces sliding in shear evolve as protrusions collide. These asperities can deform or break, thus creating a new surface shape. In particular, natural surfaces have roughness at all scales as well as scale-dependent strength. Based on a scaling analysis, we have previously suggested that the scale-dependent aspect ratio of steady-state surfaces should be proportional to the scale-dependent shear strain at yield. If true, scale-dependent strength could easily be inferred from natural surfaces. Thus, moving beyond the scaling argument to a rigorous treatment of scale-dependent strength for multiscale rough surfaces in shear is important. However, analytic frameworks for analyzing multiscale problems are challenging, as conventional continuum mechanics typically involves a single value for a material property across scales. Here, in this work, we build on the formalism of Persson (2001) that presents a method to compute contact area for rough surfaces with a prescribed topographic spectrum using a stochastic differential equation. The Persson formalism allows for plastic yield under normal loading of otherwise elastic materials and leaves open the possibility of scale-dependent yield stress. In this study, we pursue this route to develop a theory and numerical results for the yielding of a rough, elastoplastic surface with scale-dependent yield stress. Here, we examine surfaces for which the power spectrum of the topography 𝐶 and yield stress 𝑌 follow power laws as a function of scale 𝜆, such that 𝐶∼𝜆 −𝑚 and 𝑌∼𝜆 −𝑛 , respectively. In this formal treatment of the problem, we focus on surfaces in contact and the resulting yield and do not impose shear. Numerical solutions show that the deviation from the elastic scaling solution is bounded as expected by the prior 1D heuristic scaling argument that anticipates the Hurst exponent as 1−𝑛. We also show that the plasticity is expected to erode the contacts if 𝑚 is lower than 𝑛−3, which corresponds to a Hurst exponent lower than 1−𝑛/2. This result is rigorously sound for 2D, i.e., realistic surfaces, and quantitatively different than the prior scaling argument. The theory now permits a correspondingly quantitative approach to interpreting natural surfaces.
elasticity↗