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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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70 records · Page 4
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DOE OSTI2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting antimicrobial resistance in Pseudomonas aeruginosa with machine learning-enabled molecular diagnostics

Limited therapy options due to antibiotic resistance underscore the need for optimization of current diagnostics. In some bacterial species, antimicrobial resistance can be unambiguously predicted based on their genome sequence. In this study, we sequenced the genomes and transcriptomes of 414 drug-resistant clinical Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates. By training machine learning classifiers on information about the presence or absence of genes, their sequence variation, and expression profiles, we generated predictive models and identified biomarkers of resistance to four commonly administered antimicrobial drugs. Using these data types alone or in combination resulted in high (0.8–0.9) or very high (> 0.9) sensitivity and predictive values. For all drugs except for ciprofloxacin, gene expression information improved diagnostic performance. Our results pave the way for the development of a molecular resistance profiling tool that reliably predicts antimicrobial susceptibility based on genomic and transcriptomic markers. Finally, the implementation of a molecular susceptibility test system in routine microbiology diagnostics holds promise to provide earlier and more detailed information on antibiotic resistance profiles of bacterial pathogens and thus could change how physicians treat bacterial infections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data & Code from Phoenix CPPP Phase 2 Analysis

This data and code package supports the analysis presented in “Beyond Surface Cooling: Comprehensive Field Assessment of Reflective Pavement Thermal Performance in Phoenix, Arizona” and provides fully reproducible workflows for evaluating the thermal performance of cool pavement treatments in a hot urban environment. The dataset integrates multi-modal field measurements collected across residential and nonresidential settings, including mobile air temperature traverses, stationary air temperature monitoring, residential mean radiant temperature (MRT) measurements, subsurface temperature profiles, and controlled testbed observations. The data package contains raw and processed datasets in comma-separated value (CSV) format, accompanying metadata files describing site characteristics and measurement protocols, and R scripts (.R files) used for data cleaning, time synchronization, spatial and temporal matching, quality control filtering, statistical comparison, and figure generation. All analyses were conducted using R (version ≥ 4.2.0) with commonly available packages (e.g., tidyverse, lubridate, data.table, ggplot2). No proprietary software is required to reproduce results. Field campaigns were designed to quantify the effects of high-reflectance pavement coatings on surface temperature, near-surface air temperature, subsurface heat propagation, and radiative heat exposure. Temporal alignment procedures include standardized timestamp conversion and nearest-neighbor matching of high-frequency sensor measurements to stop-based metadata within defined tolerance windows to ensure comparability across instruments. The workflows generate summary statistics, treatment–control contrasts, depth-dependent thermal gradients, and time-series visualizations used in the associated publication. By integrating mobile, stationary, radiative, and subsurface measurements within a unified and transparent processing framework, this package enables comprehensive evaluation of cool pavement performance across multiple thermal exposure pathways and supports reuse in future urban heat mitigation and climate resilience studies.

AIR TEMPERATURE↗
DOE OSTI2022

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-Myb Mayberry Wetland

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Myb Mayberry Wetland. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Myb Mayberry Wetland produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The Mayberry Wetland site is a 300-acre restored wetland on Sherman Island, north of Mayberry Slough, that is on the property of Mayberry Farms and managed by the California Department of Water Resources and Ducks Unlimited. During Summer 2010, the site was restored from a pepperweed and annual grassland pasture to a wetland through a project managed by Bryan Brock (bpbrock@water.ca.gov). A flux tower equipped to analyze energy, H2O, CO2, and CH4 fluxes was installed on October 14, 2010. At the time of installation, flooding of the site had only recently begun after extensive reconstruction of the wetland bathymetry conducted during the summer. Although some small patches of tules remain within the site, the site is a patchwork of deep and shallow open water with some remaining vegetation. Currently, there is an intention to flood-to-kill the current pepperweed and upland grasses and let the wetland plants propagate naturally, so no additional plant manipulation will occur.

Matthes, Jaclyn Hatala↗
DOE OSTI2022

AmeriFlux US-Hsm Hill Slough Marsh

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Hsm Hill Slough Marsh. Site Description - The site is currently a diked marsh - upland ecotone located at the northern Suisun Marsh. It will undergo tidal restoration in Fall 2021. Restoration work is done by Ducks Unlimited Inc. and will cover an area of 649 acres. After levee breaches, the site tower will be in a high marsh system. Water level at high tide is estimated to be 0.5-1 m above the soil. Ducks Unlimited, Inc. and the Berkeley Biometeorology lab are working together to evaluate the effects of the proposed tidal marsh restoration project.

Kyle_Delwiche, Kyle_Delwiche↗
DOE OSTI2023

AmeriFlux US-Dmg Dutch Slough Marsh Gilbert Tract

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Dmg Dutch Slough Marsh Gilbert Tract. Site Description - A new restored tidal freshwater wetland located on the west Delta, within Oakley, CA. The tower is located in the eastern side of the Gilbert Parcel seeing the mid marsh transition zone upwind. Restoration work is done by DWR and started in 2018, revegetation planting started in late 2019, followed by tidal action restoration in October 2021.

Arias-Ortiz, Ariane↗
DOE OSTI2024

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-Dmg Dutch Slough Marsh Gilbert Tract

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Dmg Dutch Slough Marsh Gilbert Tract. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Dmg Dutch Slough Marsh Gilbert Tract produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - A new restored tidal freshwater wetland located on the west Delta, within Oakley, CA. The tower is located in the eastern side of the Gilbert Parcel seeing the mid marsh transition zone upwind. Restoration work is done by DWR and started in 2018, revegetation planting started in late 2019, followed by tidal action restoration in October 2021.

Arias-Ortiz, Ariane↗
DOE OSTI2025

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-Hsm Hill Slough Marsh

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Hsm Hill Slough Marsh. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Hsm Hill Slough Marsh produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The site is currently a diked marsh - upland ecotone located at the northern Suisun Marsh. It will undergo tidal restoration in Fall 2021. Restoration work is done by Ducks Unlimited Inc. and will cover an area of 649 acres. After levee breaches, the site tower will be in a high marsh system. Water level at high tide is estimated to be 0.5-1 m above the soil. Ducks Unlimited, Inc. and the Berkeley Biometeorology lab are working together to evaluate the effects of the proposed tidal marsh restoration project.

Kyle_Delwiche, Kyle_Delwiche [University of Califo↗
DOE OSTI2020

Knowledge Spillovers and Cost Reductions in Solar Soft Costs

Despite the commonly acknowledged importance of knowledge spillovers in reducing solar soft costs, we are only beginning to answer a fundamental question: who learns what (knowledge acquisition), from whom (knowledge production), and how (spillover mechanisms)? Until recently, this important topic has been largely unexplored in the case of solar soft costs. Thus, this project set out to identify how knowledge spillovers affect soft costs in the U.S. photovoltaic (PV) installation industry, specifically how important spillovers are, what types of knowledge are most likely to spillover, and how networks of actors affect spillovers. Our findings offer insights for designing solutions that address problems associated with knowledge spillovers and that leverage spillovers to reduce solar soft costs. Recognizing the ambiguity in the definition of soft costs, i.e., “non-hardware costs,” and variability in soft cost categories, we developed the Solar Soft Cost Ontology (SSCO) to systematically identify key concepts related to soft costs, network actors, learning processes, and the relationships between them. This ontology served as a foundational organizational structure for the methodology of the remaining tasks: case studies, surveys, pricing analysis, patent analysis, network analysis, and project integration across tasks. While there is substantial learning among installers that is reducing the soft costs for PV installations, most of that learning is retained by firms rather than spread across the industry. The positive relationship between experience accumulation and cost reductions is typically explained as learning by doing (LBD), but we find that LBD effects are mediated by other learning mechanisms, including learning by searching and learning by interacting. Knowledge spillovers have significant potential to reduce solar PV soft costs, but successful knowledge spillover pathways are complex and non-trivial. There are a wide variety of ways to construct an installation business, thus categories of firms that can effectively cross-learn directly are small and what knowledge is relevant to whom is challenging and costly for firms to assess. This fragmentation limits the critical mass needed for spillover related soft cost reductions. Knowledge does not flow directly between installers. Indirect knowledge transfer pathways are critical: distributors, software providers, collaboratives, and hiring. Furthermore, diverse, more integrated knowledge networks tend to promote successful learning by organizations and across the system as a whole. Accordingly, we find the need to supporting the whole ecosystem using an integrated policy and programmatic approach to support installers, distributors, complementary sector, and facilitators. Overall, a deliberate policy-mix design is needed to reduce the solar PV deployment barrier in terms of installation cost reductions, because deployment policies could potentially interact with policies that facilitate network-building and technological innovation. A combination of deployment policies, innovation-support policies, and network-facilitating policies could potentially lead to a more desired market outcome through achieving higher joint learning rates from firms’ cumulative experiences developed in a more integrated production and deployment ecosystem.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Toward a Generalizable Framework of Disturbance Ecology Through Crowdsourced Science

Disturbances fundamentally alter ecosystem functions, yet predicting their impacts remains a key scientific challenge. While the study of disturbances is ubiquitous across many ecological disciplines, there is no agreed-upon, cross-disciplinary foundation for discussing or quantifying the complexity of disturbances, and no consistent terminology or methodologies exist. This inconsistency presents an increasingly urgent challenge due to accelerating global change and the threat of interacting disturbances that can destabilize ecosystem responses. By harvesting the expertise of an interdisciplinary cohort of contributors spanning 42 institutions across 15 countries, we identified an essential limitation in disturbance ecology: the word ‘disturbance’ is used interchangeably to refer to both the events that cause, and the consequences of, ecological change, despite fundamental distinctions between the two meanings. In response, we developed a generalizable framework of ecosystem disturbances, providing a well-defined lexicon for understanding disturbances across perspectives and scales. The framework results from ideas that resonate across multiple scientific disciplines and provides a baseline standard to compare disturbances across fields. This framework can be supplemented by discipline-specific variables to provide maximum benefit to both inter- and intra-disciplinary research. To support future syntheses and meta-analyses of disturbance research, we also encourage researchers to be explicit in how they define disturbance drivers and impacts, and we recommend minimum reporting standards that are applicable regardless of scale. Finally, we discuss the primary factors we considered when developing a baseline framework and propose four future directions to advance our interdisciplinary understanding of disturbances and their social-ecological impacts: integrating across ecological scales, understanding disturbance interactions, establishing baselines and trajectories, and developing process-based models and ecological forecasting initiatives. Our experience through this process motivates us to encourage the wider scientific community to continue to explore new approaches for leveraging Open Science principles in generating creative and multidisciplinary ideas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Produced Water Desalination via Pervaporative Distillation

Herein, we report on the performance of a hybrid organic-ceramic hydrophilic pervaporation membrane applied in a vacuum membrane distillation operating mode to desalinate laboratory prepared saline waters and a hypersaline water modeled after a real oil and gas produced water. The rational for performing “pervaporative distillation” is that highly contaminated waters like produced water, reverse osmosis concentrates and industrial have high potential to foul and scale membranes, and for traditional porous membrane distillation membranes they can suffer pore-wetting and complete salt passage. In most of these processes, the hard to treat feed water is commonly softened and filtered prior to a desalination process. This study evaluates pervaporative distillation performance treating: (1) NaCl solutions from 10 to 240 g/L at crossflow Reynolds numbers from 300 to 4800 and feed-temperatures from 60 to 85 °C and (2) a real produced water composition chemically softened to reduce its high-scale forming mineral content. The pervaporative distillation process proved highly-effective at desalting all feed streams, consistently delivering <10 mg/L of dissolved solids in product water under all operating condition tested with reasonably high permeate fluxes (up to 23 LMH) at optimized operating conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Galactic Rain: Cool Gas Inflows in Red Geyser Galaxies and Their Connection to Active Galactic Nuclei Activity and Interactions

Red geysers are a population of massive (logM/M ⊙ ~ 10.5), quiescent galaxies with large-scale but weak, bisymmetric ionized gas outflows, interpreted as signatures of ongoing, low-level active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback. We investigate the kinematics and prevalence of cool (T ∼ 100–1000 K) neutral gas traced by Na I D absorption, and its connection to galaxy environment and AGN activity. Using 140 red geyser galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-IV Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (or MaNGA), we measure spatially resolved velocities and dispersions via double-Gaussian fits to the Na I D doublet. We find that ∼70% of the cool gas is inflowing, with a median velocity of ∼47 km s −1 (∼10% of the expected freefall velocity), and that it also exhibits kinematically ordered motions with σ NaD /σ* ∼ 0.4. Additionally, the Na I D absorption is more prevalent in red geysers than in a matched control sample, with a higher detection fraction (63% versus 40%) and reservoir areas ∼1.6 times larger. Acceleration (∼1 Myr) and accretion (∼20 Myr) timescales indicate that the Na I D-absorbing clouds are likely young and short-lived. Another intriguing result is that radio-detected red geysers (30% of the sample) show inflowing gas reservoirs ∼7 times larger than in non-radio systems. Similarly, galaxies subject to environmental effects host inflowing gas reservoirs ∼2.7 times larger than isolated red geysers. We take this as evidence that galaxy environments play a key role in replenishing the cool gas reservoirs of red geysers, fueling central AGN activity, sustaining radio emission, and regulating long-term quiescence. These findings reveal that quiescent systems are governed by cycles of inflow, feedback, and regulation.

Moghni, Arian [Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessment of Consensus and Wake Steering Wind Farm Control for the American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN)

As part of the AmericanWAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN), a wind farm control experiment is being conducted at the King Plains wind plant in northern Oklahoma from May 2024 to summer 2025. Two types of wind farm control are being evaluated: 1) wake steering, in which upstream wind turbines are misaligned relative to the wind direction to deflect their wakes away from downstream turbines and increase total wind plant power, and 2) consensus yaw control, whereby each turbine's yaw position is controlled to track a "consensus" weighted average of the wind directions measured at neighboring turbines rather than the turbine's own nacelle wind direction measurement. By replacing the noisy wind direction measured by an individual turbine with the smoother, more slowly varying consensus wind direction, consensus yaw control is intended to reduce yaw activity and increase power capture by improving yaw alignment. To help balance the potential increase in yaw activity for the turbines implementing wake steering, they are also operated using consensus yaw control. In this presentation we highlight the impacts of consensus yaw control and wake steering on both energy production and yaw travel at the wind plant. Results show that the change in energy from wake steering is minor overall, but significant increases in energy are observed for closely spaced turbines. Further, larger increases in energy occur during low turbulence periods. The impact of consensus yaw control on energy production is currently inconclusive, with some energy gains measured for some turbines and losses measured for others. Lastly, consensus yaw control was found to reduce yaw travel significantly, even when combined with wake steering.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electrochemical detection of microbial stress

The present invention is directed to a method of detecting microbial stress. The method comprises the following: providing an electrochemical device having at least one reference electrode and one working electrode wherein the electrochemical device also contains a fermenting microbe, setting an electrochemical potential, providing a source of electrical energy electrically connected to the at least one working electrode, detecting a transfer of electrons from the working electrode to the fermenting microbe, wherein the detection is an indication of microbial stress, and providing a remedial action in response to the indication of microbial stress.

Turick, Charles E.↗