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At least 73 records · Page 4

The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

Extreme events↗

Integrated Space Asset Management Database and Modeling

Effective Space Asset Management is one key to addressing the ever-growing issue of space congestion. It is imperative that agencies around the world have access to data regarding the numerous active assets and pieces of space junk currently tracked in orbit around the Earth. At the center of this issues is the effective management of data of many types related to orbiting objects. As the population of tracked objects grows, so too should the data management structure used to catalog technical specifications, orbital information, and metadata related to those populations. Marshall Space Flight Center's Space Asset Management Database (SAM-D) was implemented in order to effectively catalog a broad set of data related to known objects in space by ingesting information from a variety of database and processing that data into useful technical information. Using the universal NORAD number as a unique identifier, the SAM-D processes two-line element data into orbital characteristics and cross-references this technical data with metadata related to functional status, country of ownership, and application category. The SAM-D began as an Excel spreadsheet and was later upgraded to an Access database. While SAM-D performs its task very well, it is limited by its current platform and is not available outside of the local user base. Further, while modeling and simulation can be powerful tools to exploit the information contained in SAM-D, the current system does not allow proper integration options for combining the data with both legacy and new M&S tools. This paper provides a summary of SAM-D development efforts to date and outlines a proposed data management infrastructure that extends SAM-D to support the larger data sets to be generated. A service-oriented architecture model using an information sharing platform named SIMON will allow it to easily expand to incorporate new capabilities, including advanced analytics, M&S tools, fusion techniques and user interface for visualizations. In addition, tight control of information sharing policy will increase confidence in the system, which would encourage industry partners to provide commercial data. Combined with the integration of new and legacy M&S tools, a SIMON-based architecture will provide a robust environment that can be extended and expanded indefinitely.

MacLeod, Todd↗

Critical Asset Management at the Start of the Pandemic

COVID-19 has changed the daily lives of so many people and forced many companies to examine their way of doing business, including their Asset Management programs. This virus has given way to an unprecedented set of challenges to continue conducting business as usual when everything is unusual. On June 16, 2020, members of the Northern California Chapter of the Association of Asset Management Professionals came together for a panel discussion on Critical Asset Management during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. Participants were representatives from health care, water, and national security, which are all considered essential industries.

Administration and management↗

Effect of Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Impact on Modal Response of Persistent Assets

Protecting the infrastructure and payload components of persistent assets (PAs) from damage caused by MicroMeteoroid and/or Orbital Debris (MMOD) impacts is a significant design consideration. The impact resistance to MMOD will need to be provided by the robustness of the structural configuration such that the asset does not suffer loss of function or catastrophic failure. Finite element modelling (FEM) can be used to investigate the effects of MMOD impact on the overall structural behavior of the PA. The models are being used here to investigate the structural response to ‘missing’ truss members, and parametric studies are being performed to identify the worst-case scenario of an impact catastrophically damaging a truss element. These models will be used to determine which truss members are the most critical to the structural performance, and thus, which may require a higher degree of protection or robustness to ensure they can withstand an MMOD impact without causing catastrophic effects on the entire structure. Initial results have been generated indicating a reduction in the global frequency due to missing truss members as a result of MMOD impact.

in-space assembly (ISA)↗

Integration of Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES) Systems Optimized with Second-Generation, High-Temperature Superconducting (2G-HTS) Technology with a Major Fossil-Fueled Asset

Utility companies and fossil fueled generation assets are seeking combinations of “hybrid energy storage” to allow power to be provided in advance of, and to otherwise complement, peaking natural gas-fired generation. American Maglev Technology of Florida Inc. (AMT) learned during the Phase I program based on interactions with NRG Energy (NRG) that energy storage such as superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) can qualify as a Black Start unit in most markets, ensuring orderly re-start of grid operations and fossil fueled power plants and serving as an important asset of hybrid energy storage technology. In conjunction with the University of Houston (UH), AMT and NRG are working together to scale up low-cost, high- efficiency, second-generation high-temperature superconducting (2G-HTS) technology for deployment across several markets, with a primary focus on the commercial development of utility grid-scale SMES (g-SMES) systems. Ultimately the program confirmed that the novel g-SMES design can meet the performance and financial requirements of the fossil power plant industry, while exhibiting continuous grid-voltage regulation; cost-effective, peak-hour energy storage with almost infinite life; increased input/output efficiency; and the capability to undergo millions of charging cycles, without degradation, representing a significant improvement over lithium ion and other conventional storage technologies. We believe wide scale deployment of this technology is feasible and practical when compared to the higher life cycle cost and relatively short lifespan of chemical batteries. Based on these findings, the future for deployment of SMES at many fossil-fueled power plants exceeding 100MW capability is bright. Further de-risking g-SMES technology would pave the way for the construction of a subscale prototype. Eventually, scaled-down versions of SMES are expected to be competitive with the multi-billion-dollar lithium-ion market for a wide range of commercial, industrial, and transportation uses. There is long-term potential for commercialization and widespread deployment of this disruptive technology, which would spawn a new worldwide supply chain and create domestic, high-tech manufacturing jobs in the green industry.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Domestic Extremism: How to Counter Threats Posed to Critical Assets

Although facilities with sensitive information, hazardous materials, critical infrastructure, or other sensitive items have security measures in place to protect those critical assets, the threat of domestic extremism (DE) has challenged those security measures in new ways. The project described in this brief report used focus groups to identify best practices, tools, or techniques relevant to preventing or countering DE and sought to identify gaps in security measures. Five focus groups with twenty-two subject matter experts from government, healthcare, and other stakeholder groups were conducted to understand how organizations protect critical assets against the DE threat. The results of the focus groups underscore the importance of organizational culture, codes of conduct, and behavior observation programs in prevention of DE events. In addition, results emphasized the value of multidisciplinary teams, employee assistance programs, and regular threat assessment as resources when responding to DE incidents. However, monitoring of social media and lack of adequate resources remain challenges when attempting to prevent or counter the DE threat.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Emergency Asset Positioning for Resilient Transmission Grid Operation

In this paper we study a problem of hurricane emergency preparedness via placement of emergency storage assets prior to its strike. We present a two-stage stochastic model for choosing locations and quantities of emergency storage to help support the power grid through a hurricane event. The expectation of losses in our two-stage model is estimated using the sample average approximation. We construct damage scenarios for sample average approximation using WIND Toolkit meteorological data and fragility curves of various electric grid components. We demonstrate the efficacy of our two-stage planning model by simulating operations during Hurricane Dolly on the 2000-bus transmission test system. Our model, coupled with our scenario selection strategy, is effective at mitigating loss of load when compared to a model without emergency storage assets placed prior to an extreme event.

emergency preparedness↗

Leveraging National Laboratory Assets to Address Stability Challenges due to Declining Grid Inertia Using Geographically Distributed Electrical–Thermal Co-Emulation

Due to increased penetration of low-inertia resources into the electric grid, challenges are increasing for maintaining wide-area system stability. Grid stability assessment requires a faithful representation of the multiple-physics interaction at the system level, and timescales of interaction varying in orders of magnitude, from microseconds to seconds to several minutes. Along with the simulation-based techniques, hardware-in-the-loop (HIL), controller HIL, and power HIL techniques have been developed to better understand the emergent behavior of the system with emerging technologies. US National Laboratories have played a vital role in research and development to understand the behavior of individual technologies and devices integrated to the electric grid. Each national laboratory forwards a technological and strategic initiative tied core and enabling capabilities. Due to strategic, efficiency, and economic reasons, not all the labs have assets to conduct research on all technologies concomitantly, so it becomes crucial to integrate the labs across geographies to understand the interplay of different technologies together at the system level. This approach avoids duplication of the assets at different lab facilities and helps understand the integrated system behavior of various technologies representative of actual grid conditions by connecting multiple national labs. This article talks about techniques of connecting three national laboratories to enable co-emulation of electrical–mechanical–thermal characteristics of devices and systems. Such an approach can be used to understand the dynamic and transient interaction of multi-physics in a system level, at-scale emulation using real-time simulation tools and techniques.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Markov Decision Processes for Intelligent, Risk-Informed Asset-Management Decision-Making

Advanced nuclear reactors are a promising option for aiding the world in achieving its net-zero carbon emission goals, however, there are significant challenges to attaining and maintaining economic competitiveness with other sources of electricity. To improve the economic competitiveness of advanced reactor designs, a project was initiated to explore the use of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) to guide asset-management decision-making during advanced reactor operation. MDPs are a powerful tool for optimizing decision-making in complex environments and their application to advanced reactors can aid in planning maintenance and repair activities to minimize downtime and maximize generation. The described approach expands on previous work regarding the use of MDPs for operational decision-making through the direct incorporation of real-time plant information. The integral MDP analysis includes information from online component diagnostic tools and the plant’s real-time generation risk assessment (GRA) and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which evaluate plant risk from both an economic and safety perspective. The result is an asset-management optimization framework that is based on real-time data regarding plant component status and the current best-estimate of plant risk. The paper presents an overview of the theoretical framework to incorporate the different information pathways into an integral MDP analysis, along with example analyses.

Grabaskas, David↗

GMLC 1.5.03: Increasing Distribution System Resiliency using Flexible DER and Microgrid Assets Enabled by OpenFMB (Duke-RDS Final Report)

This is the final project report for the Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium (GMLC) Resilient Distribution System (RDS) project titled “Increasing Distribution System Resiliency using Flexible DER and Microgrid Assets Enabled by OpenFMB”. The primary goal of this project was to increase the resiliency of distribution systems at utilities around the nation by deploying flexible operating strategies that engage end-use assets as a resource.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Leveraging Existing Assets for Long Duration Energy Storage

Increased renewables penetration to electrical grid is necessary to reduce overall emissions from the electrical power generation sector. Nonetheless, its integration creates challenges to grid operators who must match the power being generated by intermittent renewables and other traditional energy sources with the demand from consumers, while ensuring the reliability and power quality for the entire system. Energy storage has been proposed as an alternative to natural gas peaking plants and a form to deliver excess renewable energy generation at times of peak demand. For energy storage to provide benefits to end customers (energy consumers), it must be reliable, efficient, and cost effective. The Illinois Sustainable Technology Center (ISTC), one of the surveys that integrate the Prairie Research Institute (PRI), aims to develop a Center for Energy Storage at Existing Assets (CESEA) at UIUC with the participation of Waste Pressure Corp and Ecotek Engineering USA LLC. CESEA will focus on LDES systems that can integrate to existing infrastructure in a manner that reduces the initial capital expenditure and demonstrates the ability to repurpose fossil assets that would otherwise become stranded, to serve the energy transition. CESEA aims to leverage UIUC’s unique facilities to validate LDES systems performance at a relevant operating environment. UIUC’s facilities include a 85-MW combined heat and power (CHP) power plant, two (2) solar PV plants totaling over 18 MWdc of installed capacity, an electrical grid along with a substation at transmission and distribution voltages, a 22-mile gas pipeline network operating at two pressure levels, along with steam and chilled water distribution networks. The new LDES systems will connect to the existing UIUC grid through a new test electrical station, which will have the capacity to accommodate additional connections to test new devices and technologies as part of future CESEA R&D activities. The test electrical station will contain meters, instrumentation, and controls to accurately capture data and allow optimization of control algorithms. CESEA will initially focus on technologies that: i) utilize existing equipment or facilities to perform at least one of the process steps in LDES (charging, storage, or discharging), ii) leverage mature or commercially available components or controls, iii) show potential for cost-leadership in 10+ hour storage at a commercial scale. Initial technologies that were identified to meet these criteria include Compressed Gas Energy Storage (CGES), and TES. CGES stores electricity by raising the pressure of a compressible gas inside a control volume and converting the stored energy to electricity via expansion-generation. CGES is a generalization of CAES that covers any working gas (not just air). A successful CGES demo will help to circumvent many challenges faced by CAES (long development times due to site prospecting, high cost of compression and storage, heat recovery management, etc.) by: 1) utilizing existing infrastructure (compressors, pipelines, underground storage or pressure vessels) used in the transportation and storage of industrial gases for LDES charging and storage; 2) deploying over sites already-developed for industrial applications with minor additional work; 3) leveraging the price structure of commercial industrial gas to cover the costs of electricity used during charging. A previous DOE-sponsored conceptual study (DE-FE-0032018) estimated the levelized cost of energy of a 1.1 MW / 17 MWh CGES system at $0.08/kWh, with a commercial 10x scale system cost estimated at <$0.04/kWh (Giardinella, 2022). The pilot-sized system was estimated to avoid up to 2693 tons of CO2/year.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Mitigating Stranded Asset Risks to Utility Customers: an Exploration of Securitization and Retiring Coal Generation

Coal generation currently accounts for approximately 19.5 percent of electricity generated in the United States, down from 51.7 percent of the generation mix in 2000. In 2023, the EIA expects 8.9 gigawatts (GW) of planned retirements of coal-fired capacity. Many of the coal-fired power plant retirements that have already occurred or are planned for the next decade will be plants that have not yet reached the end of their useful life, and are therefore not fully depreciated. Ensuring that utility customers do not face an undue burden in paying for these stranded assets will become an increasingly important issue over the next few years for PUCs overseeing the safety, reliability, and affordability of investor-owned utility service. This report reviews the role that securitization can play in reducing the costs associated with stranded assets due to early coal plant retirements.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Storing Affordability: Battery Storage as an Asset to Reduce Data Center Cost Shifts

This report examines how battery energy storage systems (BESS) can help utilities accommodate large load growth while protecting affordability for existing ratepayers. Rapid growth in electricity demand from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers is straining the U.S. grid. Furthermore, many new data centers are entering rural markets, which could offer economic benefits but may also pose implementation challenges for smaller utilities. At the same time, retail electricity prices are increasing faster than inflation, elevating customer affordability as a key challenge. While data centers have not been the primary driver of increases in residential prices to date, they have pushed wholesale energy and capacity prices higher in several markets. Fundamental utility cost-allocation principles show that data center growth can be rate-positive for existing customers only if new peak demand grows faster than the costs a utility must incur to serve it. Several factors, including a utility’s degree of wholesale market exposure, forecast uncertainty and stranded-asset risk, and tariff design can determine the outcome of load growth on retail rates. Energy storage can make several affordability contributions in the face of this landscape of uncertainty and market volatility, including deferral of higher-cost grid investments through improved utilization of existing assets and flexibility of new large loads, insulation from volatile wholesale prices through peak shaving, and reliability support to address grid risks stemming from the behavior of AI data center loads. Different potential BESS deployment pathways—utility-scale front-of-the-meter systems, aggregated small-scale storage installations, and data center-sited behind-the-meter storage—are compared against each other and against conventional capacity alternatives. This framework is intended as a conceptual resource to utilities, particularly smaller public utilities with rural service territories, who may be considering the role that energy storage can play in insulating existing ratepayers from data center cost shifts.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Dynamic Asset Allocation with Expected Shortfall via Quantum Annealing

Recent advances in quantum hardware offer new approaches to solve various optimization problems that can be computationally expensive when classical algorithms are employed. We propose a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm to solve a dynamic asset allocation problem where a target return and a target risk metric (expected shortfall) are specified. We propose an iterative algorithm that treats the target return as a constraint in a Markowitz portfolio optimization model, and dynamically adjusts the target return to satisfy the targeted expected shortfall. The Markowitz optimization is formulated as a Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) problem. The use of the expected shortfall risk metric enables the modeling of extreme market events. We compare the results from D-Wave’s 2000Q and Advantage quantum annealers using real-world financial data. Both quantum annealers are able to generate portfolios with more than 80% of the return of the classical optimal solutions, while satisfying the expected shortfall. We observe that experiments on assets with higher correlations tend to perform better, which may help to design practical quantum applications in the near term.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Asset - An application in mission automation for science planning

Recent advances in computer technology were used to great advantage in planning science observation sequences for the Voyager 2 encounter with Uranus in 1986. Despite a loss of experienced personnel, a challenging schedule, workforce limitations, and the complex nature of the Uranus encounter itself, the resultant science observation timelines were the most highly optimized of the five Voyager encounters with the outer planets. In part, this was due to the development of a microcomputer-based system, called ASSET (Automated Science Sequence Encounter Timelines generator), which was used to design those science observation timelines. This paper details the development of that system. ASSET demonstrates several features essential to the design of the first expert systems for science planning which will be applied for future missions.

Finnerty, D. F.↗

Air traffic management system design using satellite based geo-positioning and communications assets

The current FAA and ICAO FANS vision of Air Traffic Management will transition the functions of Communications, Navigation, and Surveillance to satellite based assets in the 21st century. Fundamental to widespread acceptance of this vision is a geo-positioning system that can provide worldwide access with best case differential GPS performance, but without the associated problems. A robust communications capability linking-up aircraft and towers to meet the voice and data requirements is also essential. The current GPS constellation does not provide continuous global coverage with a sufficient number of satellites to meet the precision landing requirements as set by the world community. Periodic loss of the minimum number of satellites in view creates an integrity problem, which prevents GPS from becoming the primary system for navigation. Furthermore, there is reluctance on the part of many countries to depend on assets like GPS and GLONASS which are controlled by military communities. This paper addresses these concerns and provides a system solving the key issues associated with navigation, automatic dependent surveillance, and flexible communications. It contains an independent GPS-like navigation system with 27 satellites providing global coverage with a minimum of six in view at all times. Robust communications is provided by a network of TDMA/FDMA communications payloads contained on these satellites. This network can support simultaneous communications for up to 30,000 links, nearly enough to simultaneously support three times the current global fleet of jumbo air passenger aircraft. All of the required hardware is directly traceable to existing designs.

Horkin, Phil↗

Command and Control of Space Assets Through Internet-Based Technologies Demonstrated

The NASA Glenn Research Center successfully demonstrated a transmission-control-protocol/ Internet-protocol- (TCP/IP) based approach to the command and control of onorbit assets over a secure network. This is a significant accomplishment because future NASA missions will benefit by using Internet-standards-based protocols. Benefits of this Internet-based space command and control system architecture include reduced mission costs and increased mission efficiency. The demonstration proved that this communications architecture is viable for future NASA missions. This demonstration was a significant feat involving multiple NASA organizations and industry. Phillip Paulsen, from Glenn's Project Development and Integration Office, served as the overall project lead, and David Foltz, from Glenn's Satellite Networks and Architectures Branch, provided the hybrid networking support for the required Internet connections. The goal was to build a network that would emulate a connection between a space experiment on the International Space Station and a researcher accessing the experiment from anywhere on the Internet, as shown. The experiment was interfaced to a wireless 802.11 network inside the demonstration area. The wireless link provided connectivity to the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) Internet Link Terminal (TILT) satellite uplink terminal located 300 ft away in a parking lot on top of a panel van. TILT provided a crucial link in this demonstration. Leslie Ambrose, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, provided the TILT/TDRSS support. The TILT unit transmitted the signal to TDRS 6 and was received at the White Sands Second TDRSS Ground Station. This station provided the gateway to the Internet. Coordination also took place at the White Sands station to install a Veridian Firewall and automated security incident measurement (ASIM) system to the Second TDRSS Ground Station Internet gateway. The firewall provides a trusted network for the simulated space experiment. A second Internet connection at the demonstration area was implemented to provide Internet connectivity to a group of workstations to serve as platforms for controlling the simulated space experiment. Installation of this Internet connection was coordinated with an Internet service provider (ISP) and local NASA Johnson Space Center personnel. Not only did this TCP/IP-based architecture prove that a principal investigator on the Internet can securely command and control on-orbit assets, it also demonstrated that valuable virtual testing of planned on-orbit activities can be conducted over the Internet prior to actual deployment in space.

Foltz, David A.↗

Dilution-of-Precision-Based Lunar Surface Navigation System Analysis Utilizing Earth-Based Assets

The NASA Vision for Space Exploration is focused on the return of astronauts to the Moon. Although navigation systems have already been proven in the Apollo missions to the Moon, the current exploration campaign will involve more extensive and extended missions requiring new concepts for lunar navigation. In contrast to Apollo missions, which were limited to the near-side equatorial region of the Moon, those under the Exploration Systems Initiative will require navigation on the Moon's limb and far side. These regions are known to have poor Earth visibility, but unknown is the extent to which a navigation system comprised solely of Earth-based tracking stations will provide adequate navigation solutions in these areas. This report presents a dilution-of-precision (DoP)-based analysis of the performance of a network of Earth-based assets. This analysis extends a previous analysis of a lunar network (LN) of navigation satellites by providing an assessment of the capability associated with a variety of assumptions. These assumptions pertain to the minimum provider elevation angle, nadir and zenith beam widths, and a total single failure in one of the Earth-based assets. The assessment is accomplished by making appropriately formed estimates of DoP. Different adaptations of DoP, such as geometrical DoP and positional DoP (GDoP and PDoP), are associated with a different set of assumptions regarding augmentations to the navigation receiver or transceiver.

Welch, Bryan W.↗