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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis of Correct Digital Controller Models from Specifications by Model Transformation (21-0320)

The design of high consequence controllers (in weapons systems, autonomy, etc.) that do what they are supposed to do is a significant challenge. Testing simply does not come close to meeting the requirements for assurance. Today circuit designers at Sandia (and elsewhere) typically capture the core behavior of their components using state models in tools such as STATEFLOW. They then check that their models meet certain requirements (e.g. “The system bus must not deadlock” or “both traffic lights at an intersection must not be green at the same time”) using tools called model checkers. If the model checker returns “yes” then the property is guaranteed to be satisfied by the model. However, there are several drawbacks to this industry practice: (1) there is a lot of detail to get right, this is particularly challenging when there are multiple components requiring complex coordination (2) any errors returned by the model checker have to be traced back through the design and fixed, necessitating rework, (3) there are severe scalability problems with this approach, particularly when dealing with concurrency. All this places high demands on the designers who now face not only an accelerated schedule but also controllers of increasing complexity. This report describes a new and fundamentally different approach to the construction of safety-critical digital controllers. Instead of directly constructing a complete model and then trying to verify it, the designer can start with an initial abstract (think “sketch”) model plus the requirements, from which a correct concrete model is automatically synthesized. There is no need for post-hoc verification of required functional properties. Having tool to carry this out will significantly impact the nation’s ability to ensure the safety of high-consequence digital systems. The approach has been implemented in a prototype tool, along with a suite of examples, including ones that reflect actual problems faced by designers. Our approach operates on a variant of Statecharts developed at Sandia called Qspecs. Statecharts are a widely used formalism for developing concurrent reactive systems, supporting scalability through allowing state models containing composite states, which are the serial or parallel composition of substates which can themselves contain statecharts. Statecharts enable an incremental style of development, in which states are progressively refined to incorporate greater detail in an incremental model of software development. Our approach formulates a set of constraints from the structure of the models and the requirements and propagates these constraints to a fixpoint. The solution to the constraints is an inductive invariant along with guards on the transitions. We also show how our approach extends to implementation refinement, decomposition, composition, and elaboration. We currently handle safety requirements written in LTL (Linear Temporal Logic)

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2022

Space Applications of a Trusted AI Framework: Experiences and Lessons Learned

Artificial intelligence (AI), which encompasses machine learning (ML), has become a critical technology due to its well-established success in a wide array of applications. However, the proper application of AI remains a central topic of discussion in many safety-critical fields. This has limited its success in autonomous systems due to the difficulty of ensuring AI algorithms will perform as desired and that users will understand and trust how they operate. In response, there is growing demand for trustability in AI to address both the expectations and concerns regarding its use. The Aerospace Corporation (Aerospace) developed a Framework for Trusted AI (henceforth referred to as the framework) to encourage best practices for the implementation, assessment, and control of AI-based applications. It is generally applicable, being based on terms and definitions that cut across AI domains, and thus is a starting point for practitioners to tailor to their particular application. To help demonstrate how the framework can be tailored into mission assurance guidance for the space domain, Aerospace sought the involvement of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to engage with actual examples of AI-based space autonomy.

Kaufman, James↗
DOE OSTI2025

Seeing is Believing: Autonomous Microscopy and the Data Revolution in Materials Science

This presentation explores the transformative potential of autonomous electron microscopy and artificial intelligence (AI) in accelerating materials science discovery, particularly for energy applications and materials operating in extreme environments. We discuss pioneering self-driving laboratories at NREL designed to intelligently probe material synthesis and degradation across multiple scales, aiming to rapidly bridge the gap between atomic-level understanding and the development of high-performance, reliable materials. Utilizing advanced machine learning techniques, such as few-shot learning and multimodal analysis integrating imaging and spectroscopy, we demonstrate methods to extract actionable descriptors for material behavior, quantify complex microstructural evolution, and statistically link synthesis parameters to defect populations. This AI-driven approach promises to accelerate the creation of predictive materials tailored for specific missions, enabling faster development cycles and enhanced material assurance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Application of UAV Attitude Estimation Using a Low-Cost Inertial Navigation System

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) are playing an increasing role in aviation. Various methods exist for the computation of UAV attitude based on low cost microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) and Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers. There has been a recent increase in UAV autonomy as sensors are becoming more compact and onboard processing power has increased significantly. Correct UAV attitude estimation will play a critical role in navigation and separation assurance as UAVs share airspace with civil air traffic. This paper describes attitude estimation derived by post-processing data from a small low cost Inertial Navigation System (INS) recorded during the flight of a subscale commercial off the shelf (COTS) UAV. Two discrete time attitude estimation schemes are presented here in detail. The first is an adaptation of the Kalman Filter to accommodate nonlinear systems, the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). The EKF returns quaternion estimates of the UAV attitude based on MEMS gyro, magnetometer, accelerometer, and pitot tube inputs. The second scheme is the complementary filter which is a simpler algorithm that splits the sensor frequency spectrum based on noise characteristics. The necessity to correct both filters for gravity measurement errors during turning maneuvers is demonstrated. It is shown that the proposed algorithms may be used to estimate UAV attitude. The effects of vibration on sensor measurements are discussed. Heuristic tuning comments pertaining to sensor filtering and gain selection to achieve acceptable performance during flight are given. Comparisons of attitude estimation performance are made between the EKF and the complementary filter.

Eure, Kenneth W.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Attached shuttle payload carriers: Versatile and affordable access to space

The shuttle has been primarily designed to be a versatile vehicle for placing a variety of scientific and technological equipment in space including very large payloads; however, since many large payloads do not fill the shuttle bay, the space and weight margins remaining after the major payloads are accommodated often can be made available to small payloads. The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has designed standardized mounting structures and other support systems, collectively called attached shuttle payload (ASP) carriers, to make this additional space available to researchers at a relatively modest cost. Other carrier systems for ASP's are operated by other NASA centers. A major feature of the ASP carriers is their ease of use in the world of the Space Shuttle. ASP carriers attempt to minimized the payload interaction with Space Transportation System (STS) operations whenever possible. Where this is not possible, the STS services used are not extensive. As a result, the interfaces between the carriers and the STS are simplified. With this near autonomy, the requirements for supporting documentation are considerably lessened and payload costs correspondingly reduced. The ASP carrier systems and their capabilities are discussed in detail. The range of available capabilities assures that an experimenter can select the simplest, most cost-effective carrier that is compatible with his or her experimental objectives. Examples of payloads which use ASP basic hardware in nonstandard ways are also described.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2014

Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project

The purpose of the Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project is to extend current ground-based HRA risk prediction techniques to a long-duration, space-based tool. Ground-based HRA methodology has been shown to be a reasonable tool for short-duration space missions, such as Space Shuttle and lunar fly-bys. However, longer-duration deep-space missions, such as asteroid and Mars missions, will require the crew to be in space for as long as 400 to 900 day missions with periods of extended autonomy and self-sufficiency. Current indications show higher risk due to fatigue, physiological effects due to extended low gravity environments, and others, may impact HRA predictions. For this project, Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) will work with Human Health & Performance (HH&P) to establish what is currently used to assess human reliabiilty for human space programs, identify human performance factors that may be sensitive to long duration space flight, collect available historical data, and update current tools to account for performance shaping factors believed to be important to such missions. This effort will also contribute data to the Human Performance Data Repository and influence the Space Human Factors Engineering research risks and gaps (part of the HRP Program). An accurate risk predictor mitigates Loss of Crew (LOC) and Loss of Mission (LOM).The end result will be an updated HRA model that can effectively predict risk on long-duration missions.

Boyer, Roger↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Architecting Safer Autonomous Aviation Systems

The aviation literature gives relatively little guidance to practitioners about the specifics of architecting systems for safety, particularly the impact of architecture on allocating safety requirements, or the relative ease of system assurance resulting from system or subsystem level architectural choices. As an exemplar, this paper considers common architectural patterns used within traditional aviation systems and explores their safety and safety assurance implications when applied in the context of integrating artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) based functionality. Considering safety as an architectural property, we discuss both the allocation of safety requirements and the architectural trade-offs involved early in the design lifecycle. This approach could be extended to other assured properties, similar to safety, such as security. We conclude with a discussion of the safety considerations that emerge in the context of candidate architectural patterns that have been proposed in the recent literature for enabling autonomy capabilities by integrating AI and ML. A recommendation is made for the generation of a property-driven architectural pattern catalogue.

Architecture patterns↗
NASA NTRS2021

Separation at Crossing Waypoints Under Wind Uncertainty in Urban Air Mobility

To enable high-density operations in major metropolitan areas, urban air mobility networks are anticipated to have air traffic management with higher levels of autonomy. To ensure that this type of autonomy is feasible, one of the critical steps from a safety and efficiency perspective is understanding various factors that affect the spatial separation between airborne flights and ensure that these factors can be managed. In terms of separation assurance and scheduling, an important real-world concern is that future states of aircraft cannot be perfectly predicted. The focus of this research paper is to understand how these prediction errors affect separation and scheduling services and to explore mitigation strategies to handle these errors. In this research, we have simulated these types of uncertainty by adding wind-prediction errors to trajectory predictions for separation. With these wind-prediction errors, we decompose the problem into two separate questions. First, using both simulation and analytical methods, we look at conflict-detection-only scenarios to understand how the wind errors affect required minimum temporal separation between crossing flights to ensure a specific spatial separation. Next, we study how trajectory errors effect conflict resolution, and we explore different combinations of scheduling and separation assurance to mitigate the effects of uncertainty between crossing flights. The conflict resolution algorithm aims to minimize necessary temporal separation between crossing flights under uncertainty, still ensuring safety-critical spatial separation. In summary, this research suggests that the required minimum temporal separation at a crossing waypoint is dependent on factors such as inbound crossing angle, the relative angle between wind direction and bearing of each route, wind magnitude, wind magnitude uncertainty, nominal cruise airspeed of aircraft, and look-ahead time of the conflict detection algorithm. This research also suggests that different combinations of scheduling and separation have different qualitative results. Using a combination of strategic, flow-based scheduling, tactical scheduling at crossings, speed control near crossing points, and separation management leads to a system that is insensitive to trajectory prediction errors with high throughput and flexibility for aircraft away from shared resources.

urban air mobility↗
NASA NTRS2021

Separation at Crossing Waypoints Under Wind Uncertainty in Urban Air Mobility

To enable high-density operations in major metropolitan areas, urban air mobility networks are anticipated to have air traffic management with higher levels of autonomy. To ensure that this type of autonomy is feasible, one of the critical steps from a safety and efficiency perspective is understanding various factors that affect the spatial separation between airborne flights and ensure that these factors can be managed. In terms of separation assurance and scheduling, an important real-world concern is that future states of aircraft cannot be perfectly predicted. The focus of this research paper is to understand how these prediction errors affect separation and scheduling services and to explore mitigation strategies to handle these errors. In this research, we have simulated these types of uncertainty by adding wind-prediction errors to trajectory predictions for separation. With these wind-prediction errors, we decompose the problem into two separate questions. First, using both simulation and analytical methods, we look at conflict-detection-only scenarios to understand how the wind errors affect required minimum temporal separation between crossing flights to ensure a specific spatial separation. Next, we study how trajectory errors effect conflict resolution, and we explore different combinations of scheduling and separation assurance to mitigate the effects of uncertainty between crossing flights. The conflict resolution algorithm aims to minimize necessary temporal separation between crossing flights under uncertainty, still ensuring safety-critical spatial separation. In summary, this research suggests that the required minimum temporal separation at a crossing waypoint is dependent on factors such as inbound crossing angle, the relative angle between wind direction and bearing of each route, wind magnitude, wind magnitude uncertainty, nominal cruise airspeed of aircraft, and look-ahead time of the conflict detection algorithm. This research also suggests that different combinations of scheduling and separation have different qualitative results. Using a combination of strategic, flow-based scheduling, tactical scheduling at crossings, speed control near crossing points, and separation management leads to a system that is insensitive to trajectory prediction errors with high throughput and flexibility for aircraft away from shared resources.

urban air mobility↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Virtual Laboratory for Aviation and Airspace Prognostics Research

Integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), autonomy, spacecraft, and other aviation technologies, in the airspace is becoming more and more complicated, and will continue to do so in the future. Inclusion of new technology and complexity into the airspace increases the importance and difficulty of safety assurance. Additionally, testing new technologies on complex aviation systems and systems of systems can be challenging, expensive, and at times unsafe when implementing real life scenarios. The application of prognostics to aviation and airspace management may produce new tools and insight into these problems. Prognostic methodology provides an estimate of the health and risks of a component, vehicle, or airspace and knowledge of how that will change over time. That measure is especially useful in safety determination, mission planning, and maintenance scheduling. In our research, we develop a live, distributed, hardware- in-the-loop Prognostics Virtual Laboratory testbed for aviation and airspace prognostics. The developed testbed will be used to validate prediction algorithms for the real-time safety monitoring of the National Airspace System (NAS) and the prediction of unsafe events. In our earlier work1 we discussed the initial Prognostics Virtual Laboratory testbed development work and related results for milestones 1 & 2. This paper describes the design, development, and testing of the integrated tested which are part of milestone 3, along with our next steps for validation of this work. Through a framework consisting of software/hardware modules and associated interface clients, the distributed testbed enables safe, accurate, and inexpensive experimentation and research into airspace and vehicle prognosis that would not have been possible otherwise. The testbed modules can be used cohesively to construct complex and relevant airspace scenarios for research. Four modules are key to this research: the virtual aircraft module which uses the X-Plane simulator and X-PlaneConnect toolbox, the live aircraft module which connects fielded aircraft using onboard cellular communications devices, the hardware in the loop (HITL) module which connects laboratory based bench-top hardware testbeds and the research module which contains diagnostics and prognostics tools for analysis of live air traffic situations and vehicle health conditions. The testbed also features other modules for data recording and playback, information visualization, and air traffic generation. Software reliability, safety, and latency are some of the critical design considerations in development of the testbed.

LVC-DE↗
NASA NTRS2018

Development of a Ground Test and Analysis Protocol for NASA's NextSTEP Phase 2 Habitation Concepts

The NASA Next Space Technologies for Exploration Partnerships (NextSTEP) program is a public-private partnership model that seeks commercial development of deep space exploration capabilities to support human spaceflight missions around and beyond cislunar space. NASA first issued the Phase 1 NextSTEP Broad Agency Announcement to U.S. industries in 2014, which called for innovative cislunar habitation concepts that leveraged commercialization plans for low-Earth orbit. These habitats will be part of the Deep Space Gateway (DSG), the cislunar space station planned by NASA for construction in the 2020s. In 2016, Phase 2 of the NextSTEP program selected five commercial partners to develop ground prototypes. A team of NASA research engineers and subject matter experts (SMEs) have been tasked with developing the ground-test protocol that will serve as the primary means by which these Phase 2 prototypes will be evaluated. Since 2008, this core test team has successfully conducted multiple spaceflight analog mission evaluations utilizing a consistent set of operational tools, methods, and metrics to enable the iterative development, testing, analysis, and validation of evolving exploration architectures, operations concepts, and vehicle designs. The purpose of implementing a similar evaluation process for the Phase 2 Habitation Concepts is to consistently evaluate different commercial partner ground prototypes to provide data-driven, actionable recommendations for Phase 3. This paper describes the process by which the ground test protocol was developed and the objectives, methods, and metrics by which the NextSTEP Phase 2 Habitation Concepts will be rigorously and systematically evaluated. The protocol has been developed using both a top-down and bottom-up approach. Top-down development began with the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) exploration objectives and ISS Exploration Capability Study Team (IECST) candidate flight objectives. Strategic questions and associated rationales, derived from these candidate architectural objectives, provide the framework by which the ground-test protocol will address the DSG stack elements and configurations, systems and subsystems, and habitation, science, and EVA functions. From these strategic questions, high-level functional requirements for the DSG were drafted and associated ground-test objectives and analysis protocols were established. Bottom-up development incorporated objectives from NASA SMEs in autonomy, avionics and software, communication, environmental control and life support systems, exercise, extravehicular activity, exploration medical operations, guidance navigation and control, human factors and behavioral performance, human factors and habitability, logistics, Mission Control Center operations, power, radiation, robotics, safety and mission assurance, science, simulation, structures, thermal, trash management, and vehicle health. Top-down and bottom-up objectives were integrated to form overall functional requirements - ground-test objectives and analysis mapping. From this mapping, ground-test objectives were organized into those that will be evaluated through inspection, demonstration, analysis, subsystem standalone testing, and human-in-the-loop (HITL) testing. For the HITL tests, mission-like timelines, procedures, and flight rules have been developed to directly meet ground test objectives and evaluate specific functional requirements. Data collected from these assessments will be analyzed to determine the acceptability of habitation element configurations and the combinations of capabilities that will result in the best habitation platform to be recommended by the test team for Phase 3.

Gernhardt, Michael L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Role of PHM in Autonomous Decision-Making: Aerospace applications

There is an increased need for onboard decision-making capabilities in cyber-physical systems be it in energy, automotive, aviation, space, or other industries as they aim for increased efficiency, resiliency, and mission assurance capabilities. Emerging next-gen technologies such as multi-rover planetary missions, distributed satellites, unmanned ground and aerial vehicle operations and smart grid systems rely on in-time risk assessment and autonomous decision-making. One critical piece of the autonomy puzzle is reliable prediction of system behavior under time-varying and potentially uncertain environmental conditions. Further, if agent states change during operation such as initiation of faults or degradation, reliable diagnostic tools need to be investigated. In this tutorial, we will revise approaches that integrates existing physics-based and data-driven models of agents interacting with probability models of the environment and component operation state. Role of existing PHM methodologies as they feed into decision-making under uncertainty will be studied. Balancing critical trade-offs between high-fidelity prognostic models, prediction time-horizons and the computational requirements for in-time cost-effective decision-making will be discussed through the implementation of surrogate models. Finally, the audience will be introduced to a real-time application of in-time trajectory planning of an unmanned aerial system (UAS) based on its PHM assessments under uncertain and varying wind conditions.

decision-making↗
NASA NTRS2012

The HAL 9000 Space Operating System Real-Time Planning Engine Design and Operations Requirements

In support of future deep space manned missions, an autonomous/automated vehicle, providing crew autonomy and an autonomous response planning system, will be required due to the light time delays in communication. Vehicle capabilities as a whole must provide for tactical response to vehicle system failures and space environmental effects induced failures, for risk mitigation of permanent loss of communication with Earth, and for assured crew return capabilities. The complexity of human rated space systems and the limited crew sizes and crew skills mix drive the need for a robust autonomous capability on-board the vehicle. The HAL 9000 Space Operating System[2] designed for such missions and space craft includes the first distributed real-time planning / re-planning system. This paper will detail the software architecture of the multiple planning engine system, and the interface design for plan changes, approval and implementation that is performed autonomously. Operations scenarios will be defined for analysis of the planning engines operations and its requirements for nominal / off nominal activities. An assessment of the distributed realtime re-planning system, in the defined operations environment, will be provided as well as findings as it pertains to the vehicle, crew, and mission control requirements needed for implementation.

Stetson, Howard↗
NASA NTRS2005

Integrated Systems Health Management for Space Exploration

Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) is a system engineering discipline that addresses the design, development, operation, and lifecycle management of components, subsystems, vehicles, and other operational systems with the purpose of maintaining nominal system behavior and function and assuring mission safety and effectiveness under off-nominal conditions. NASA missions are often conducted in extreme, unfamiliar environments of space, using unique experimental spacecraft. In these environments, off-nominal conditions can develop with the potential to rapidly escalate into mission- or life-threatening situations. Further, the high visibility of NASA missions means they are always characterized by extraordinary attention to safety. ISHM is a critical element of risk mitigation, mission safety, and mission assurance for exploration. ISHM enables: In-space maintenance and repair; a) Autonomous (and automated) launch abort and crew escape capability; b) Efficient testing and checkout of ground and flight systems; c) Monitoring and trending of ground and flight system operations and performance; d) Enhanced situational awareness and control for ground personnel and crew; e) Vehicle autonomy (self-sufficiency) in responding to off-nominal conditions during long-duration and distant exploration missions; f) In-space maintenance and repair; and g) Efficient ground processing of reusable systems. ISHM concepts and technologies may be applied to any complex engineered system such as transportation systems, orbital or planetary habitats, observatories, command and control systems, life support systems, safety-critical software, and even the health of flight crews. As an overarching design and operational principle implemented at the system-of-systems level, ISHM holds substantial promise in terms of affordability, safety, reliability, and effectiveness of space exploration missions.

Uckun, Serdar↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gateway Implementation of Cybersecurity Requirements

Cybersecurity threats are a constant present-day reality for any type of business -- Space exploration is not excluded from these threats either. The Gateway Program is one of NASA’s latest initiatives that extend space exploration beyond low earth orbit. Gateway allows for NASA to prove technologies and mature systems necessary to live and work on another celestial body before embarking on multi-year missions to Mars. The Gateway is a small, human-tended space station in orbit around the Moon. With the increased autonomy, distance and criticality of systems, cybersecurity is a critical discipline that touches and integrates with most if not all subsystems of the Gateway. Building a gateway to the lunar orbit is no simple task. In this presentation, we outline an approach that the Gateway team adopted in creating a cyber safe and robust vehicle to support operations and assure protection of the critical functions. Gateway Program is required to implement National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) guidelines to adhere to the Federal Information Security Modernization Act (FISMA). NIST provides a framework for managing and controlling cybersecurity risks by defining cybersecurity controls and methodologies for implementation. The NIST framework is based upon the system, data within the system, integrations with external systems, and risk assessments to determine impacts for each of those systems. The goals and objectives are to identify appropriate security controls that fulfil and map to the NIST 800-53 framework. The implementation process involves developing an organizational understanding to manage cybersecurity risk to systems, people, assets, data, and capabilities. NIST Security controls are interpreted and defined within the Gateway vehicle requirements subsystems specifications. This paper details the approach, implementation, and challenges faced during the development and design phases to address cyber threats during the Gateway vehicle operations.

Cybersecurity↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gateway Implementation of Cybersecurity Requirements

Cyber threats are a constant present-day reality for any type of business -- Space exploration is not excluded from these threats either. The Gateway Program is one of NASA’s latest initiatives that extend space exploration beyond low earth orbit. Gateway allows for NASA to prove technologies and mature systems necessary to live and work on another celestial body before embarking on multi-year missions to Mars. The Gateway is a small, human-tended space station in orbit around the Moon. With the increased autonomy, distance and criticality of systems, cybersecurity is one of the critical subsystems that touches and integrates with most if not all subsystems of the Gateway. Building a gateway to the lunar orbit is no simple task. In this presentation, we outline an approach that the Gateway team adopted in creating a cyber safe and robust vehicle to support operations and assure protection of the critical functions. Gateway Program is required to implement National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) guidelines to adhere to the Federal Information Security Modernization Act (FISMA). NIST provides a framework for managing and controlling cybersecurity risks by defining cybersecurity controls and methodologies for implementation. The NIST framework is based upon the system, data within the system, integrations with external systems, and risk assessments to determine impacts for each of those systems. The goals and objectives are to identify appropriate security controls that fulfill and map to the NIST 800-53 framework. The implementation process involves developing an organizational understanding to manage cybersecurity risk to systems, people, assets, data, and capabilities. NIST Security controls are interpreted and defined within the Gateway vehicle requirements subsystems specifications. This paper details the approach, implementation, and challenges faced during the development and design phases to address cyber threats during the Gateway vehicle operations.

Svetlana Hanson↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Capturing Complex Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High-Risk Adverse Events During Flight

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗