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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

State-Space Model to Estimate Salmon Escapement Using Multiple Data Sources

Abstract Accurate estimates of salmonids passing Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River, by species and origin, are a critical input to assessing the status and trends of various populations as well as successful management of fisheries in the Snake River basin. Here, we describe a state-space model that estimates such escapement past a dam by using window counts, PIT tag observations, and data from an adult fish trap, accounting for issues such as nighttime passage, fallback and reascension, potential observation error at the window, and uncertainty in the adult trap rate. We tested the approach using a simulation framework that mimicked several levels of observation error, differences between nighttime passage and reascension rates, and the possibility of the adult trap being closed for some period of time. Our results demonstrate that the model produced unbiased estimates across all tested scenarios. We also applied this model to empirical data from Lower Granite Dam to produce estimates of wild, clipped hatchery, and unclipped hatchery spring/summer-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and steelhead O. mykiss from spawn years 2010–2019.

See, Kevin E. (ORCID:0000000297626442)↗
DOE OSTI2024

2023 Central Hanford Ecological Integrity Assessments Monitoring Report

The Hanford Site is comprised of an expanse of shrub-steppe habitats that provides exceptional ecological value to plants and animals located on the site and in the surrounding greater Columbia Basin. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-managed portion of the Hanford Site, referred to from here on as Central Hanford, has been the focus of various ecological monitoring efforts, including vegetation monitoring. The scope and goals of vegetation surveys have varied greatly since the Hanford Site was established, but previous studies have documented a rapidly changing landscape, making it clear that continued vegetation monitoring is integral to preserving the ecological value of Central Hanford. A new vegetation monitoring effort was initiated in 2023 using methods based on ecological integrity assessments (EIA) (Natural Heritage Report [NHR] 2020-05) developed by the Washington Natural Heritage Program (WNHP), a division of the Washington State Department of Natural Resources (DNR) and NatureServe®. The methods were modified and supplemented to meet monitoring goals at the Hanford Site. The 2023 EIA monitoring effort consisted of field surveys to evaluate vegetation and soil condition across Central Hanford. Surveys were focused on upland habitats, and areas under consideration for upcoming projects were prioritized. Vegetation cover estimates were used to score a variety of metrics for vegetation conditions in each area. In 2023, approximately half of the site was surveyed. Monitoring methods and results for the 2023 field season are summarized in this report, and management recommendations are also provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-Head Bypass Fish Passage Investigations: Year One (Final Report)

The goal of this first year study is to investigate the effects of downstream passage on fish health by comparing two methods: downstream fish passage at a high head dam through a bypass system, and downstream fish passage at a collection facility with vehicle conveyance to understand which method best supports achieving biological performance metrics, and what structural design or operational changes can be implemented to reduce stress and mortality in juvenile Chinook salmon. This study will occur at Green Peter Dam (or Green Peter). To achieve this goal, we will evaluate stress, injury, and mortality rates of downstream migrating juveniles after passage through a bypass system compared to holding fish in a collection facility and vehicle conveyance (trap and haul). This study will be conducted by researchers from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in collaboration with researchers from Oregon State University (OSU). Results from this study will be used to inform the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Product Delivery Teams (PDTs) charged with designing improvements for downstream juvenile fish passage at high head dams in the Willamette River basin. The broader intent is to support management decisions on long-term measures and operations to rebuild populations of Upper Willamette River spring Chinook salmon listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Numerical Simulation of Commercial-Scale CO2 Storage in a Saline Formation Evaluating Basin-Scale Pressure Interference and CO2 Plume Commingling

Presentation at NETL Carbon Management Project Review Meeting held in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, August 15–19, 2022. The presentation provides quantitative evaluation of subsurface pressure interference and emphasizes the importance of interproject coordination among stakeholders associated with multi-project geologic CO2 storage in a shared sedimentary basin.

Wijaya, Nur↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Long-Term Environmental Monitoring Systems (ALTEMIS) Artificial Intelligence Data Management Plan

Across the Department of Energy’s Environmental and Legacy Management sites, complex groundwater plumes exist that will require long-term monitoring to ensure remedial actions that have been put in place remain effective decades into the future. The current monitoring paradigm predominantly consists of groundwater well sampling, whereby samples are collected, concentrations analyzed, and plume anomalies are detected after they have occurred. The Advanced Long Term Environmental Monitoring Systems (ALTEMIS) program is a multi-lab, multi-institution team of researchers that is deploying spatially integrative technologies (i.e., real-time in situ sensor networks), coupled with artificial intelligence and machine learning, to establish a more proactive monitoring paradigm. Within this approach, plume anomalies can be predicted, and corrective actions can be established prior to the occurrence, offering a more cost-effective and robust approach to long-term monitoring. The team has deployed a variety of different in situ sensing technologies at the Savannah River Site’s F-Area Hazardous Waste Management Facility around the F-Area Seepage Basins, which are unlined basins that received 7 billion liters of acidic low-level radioactive waste from the 1950s until the late 1980s. The technologies and techniques that the team is deploying are intended to ensure that the remedial actions that have been taken by the site remain effective decades into the future. Foundational to this approach is a robust, integrated data management and analysis plan to ensure accurate and timely reporting from the variety of sensor systems that are in place. This report will outline the data management plan that has been implemented by the ALTEMIS team at the Savannah River Site and will serve as a blueprint as the technology is translated to new sites across the DOE Complex.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of Process Chemical Modeling to Optimize Radioactive Waste Disposal at the Savannah River Site – 24242

The Liquid Waste Program (LWP) managed by Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC) is responsible for the treatment and disposal of waste at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Radioactive waste at SRS is stored and processed at four key facilities – each with their respective functions to store, blend, grout, or vitrify waste. The tank farm, where waste is stored, consists primarily of legacy waste with new material incoming from the Accelerated Basin De-inventory program (ABD), which is managed by Savannah River Nuclear Solutions (SRNS). System planning is done by SRNS and SRMC to optimize ABD and LWP operations, respectively.

Georgiou, Andreas↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhancing the representation of water management in global hydrological models

Abstract. This study enhances an existing global hydrological model (GHM), Xanthos, by adding a new water management module that distinguishes between the operational characteristics of irrigation, hydropower, and flood control reservoirs. We remapped reservoirs in the Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD) database to the 0.5∘ spatial resolution in Xanthos so that a single lumped reservoir exists per grid cell, which yielded 3790 large reservoirs. We implemented unique operation rules for each reservoir type, based on their primary purposes. In particular, hydropower reservoirs have been treated as flood control reservoirs in previous GHM studies, while here, we determined the operation rules for hydropower reservoirs via optimization that maximizes long-term hydropower production. We conducted global simulations using the enhanced Xanthos and validated monthly streamflow for 91 large river basins, where high-quality observed streamflow data were available. A total of 1878 (296 hydropower, 486 irrigation, and 1096 flood control and others) out of the 3790 reservoirs are located in the 91 basins and are part of our reported results. The Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) value (after adding the new water management) is ≥ 0.5 and ≥ 0.0 in 39 and 81 basins, respectively. After adding the new water management module, model performance improved for 75 out of 91 basins and worsened for only 7. To measure the relative difference between explicitly representing hydropower reservoirs and representing hydropower reservoirs as flood control reservoirs (as is commonly done in other GHMs), we use the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). Out of the 296 hydropower reservoirs, the NRMSE is > 0.25 (i.e., considering 0.25 to represent a moderate difference) for over 44 % of the 296 reservoirs when comparing both the simulated reservoir releases and storage time series between the two simulations. We suggest that correctly representing hydropower reservoirs in GHMs could have important implications for our understanding and management of freshwater resource challenges at regional-to-global scales. This enhanced global water management modeling framework will allow the analysis of future global reservoir development and management from a coupled human–earth system perspective.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗
DOE OSTI2023

Contesting with the Ganges Water Machine in South Asia: Theory versus Reality

Recently, there has been much interest in how to manage the water resources of the Ganges River Basin (GRB), the cradle of Asian civilization, currently supporting >500 million people. This also includes cleaning up the Ganges river, regarded as one of the most polluted mega-rivers of the world. Historically, the transboundary Ganges river and its tributaries, flowing through India, Nepal, and Bangladesh, have become extensively polluted and disrupted, mostly because of river engineering and increased discharge of industrial and urban waste. Compounding the problem, in the past few decades, intense groundwater abstraction from the GRB aquifers has led to unprecedented groundwater level depletion in some locations. At present, the GRB groundwater levels are strongly influenced by depth-dependent abstraction, which is predicted to intensify in the future, given the increasing water demand. Therefore, with impending climate change, designing the coupled river water–groundwater management necessary to meet the goal for sustainable access to clean water for a huge population, has become an arduous challenge.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone development classification utilizing machine learning and synoptic composites

This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms -1 ). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are used to train a decision tree and random forest model. Results using a testing dataset suggest the random forest approach more accurately distinguishes between non-developing and developing samples. The classification accuracy of the decision tree and random forest are 72% and 91%, respectively. Random forest outperformed the decision tree by providing higher accuracy in test data. The most important variables for binary classification are sea salt aerosol optical depth (AOD), 1,000 mb relative humidity, and sea surface temperature. AOD is a quantitative estimate of the aerosols presents in the air through the extinction of a ray of light as it passes through the atmosphere. Mean composite maps constructed in an unsupervised manner have been created for the most important variables identified by the random forest classifier during TD and TS events to highlight the difference in geophysical and aerosol variables' climatology during the two different classifications. This work will advance the risk management strategies for northeastern Australia and other SWPO basin islands to control their tropical cyclone related losses through prioritizing forecasting variables that are the strongest predictors of the strengthening of tropical depressions into tropical cyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Policy Innovation and Governance for Irrigation Sustainability in the Arid, Saline San Joaquin River Basin

This paper provides a chronology and overview of events and policy initiatives aimed at addressing irrigation sustainability issues in the San Joaquin River Basin (SJRB) of California. Although the SJRB was selected in this case study, many of the same resource management issues are being played out in arid, agricultural regions around the world. The first part of this paper provides an introduction to some of the early issues impacting the expansion of irrigated agriculture primarily on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley and the policy and capital investments that were used to address salinity impairments to the use of the San Joaquin River (SJR) as an irrigation water supply. Irrigated agriculture requires large quantities of water if it is to be sustained, as well as supply water of adequate quality for the crop being grown. The second part of the paper addresses these supply issues and a period of excessive groundwater pumping that resulted in widespread land subsidence. A joint federal and state policy response that resulted in the facilities to import Delta water provided a remedy that lasted almost 50 years until the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act of 2014 was passed in the legislature to address a recurrence of the same issue. The paper describes the current state of basin-scale simulation modeling that many areas, including California, are using to craft a future sustainable groundwater resource management policy. The third section of the paper deals with unique water quality issues that arose in connection with the selenium crisis at Kesterson Reservoir and the significant threats to irrigation sustainability on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley that followed. The eventual policy response to this crisis was incremental, spanning two decades of University of California-led research programs focused on finding permanent solutions to the salt and selenium contamination problems constraining irrigated agriculture, primarily on the west side. Arid-zone agricultural drainage-induced water quality problems are becoming more ubiquitous worldwide. One policy approach that found traction in California is an innovative variant on the traditional Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) approach to salinity regulation, which has features in common with a scheme in Australia’s Hunter River Basin. The paper describes the real-time salinity management (RTSM) concept, which is geared to improving coordination of west side agricultural and wetland exports of salt load with east side tributary reservoir release flows to improve compliance with river salinity objectives. RTSM is a concept that requires access to continuous flow and electrical conductivity data from sensor networks located along the San Joaquin River and its major tributaries and a simulation model-based decision support designed to make salt load assimilative capacity forecasts. Web-based information dissemination and data sharing innovations are described with an emphasis on experience with stakeholder engagement and participation. The last decade has seen wide-scale, global deployment of similar technologies for enhancing irrigation agriculture productivity and protecting environmental resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Expansion of smallmouth bass distribution and habitat overlap with juvenile Chinook salmon in the Willamette River, Oregon

Abstract Smallmouth bass populations have expanded far beyond their native range and these predatory fish present a pervasive threat to native aquatic species throughout North America. In the western United States, smallmouth bass are now present in river and reservoir habitats where Pacific salmon are found and are considered a potential threat to salmon recovery in many locations. We conducted a study to determine if smallmouth bass are expanding their range in the mainstem Willamette River, Oregon, and developed a model to assess habitat overlap between smallmouth bass and juvenile Chinook salmon. Sampling during 2011–2022 revealed that the distribution of smallmouth bass had expanded throughout that timeframe to encompass the entire mainstem Willamette River, including important rearing habitats for juvenile Chinook salmon. The model predicted that smallmouth bass and juvenile Chinook salmon habitat overlap was substantial, highlighting the need for additional research to evaluate for potential negative impacts to salmon recovery in the basin. The model was also used to evaluate the efficacy of using flow management to reduce interactions between these two species, but the scenarios we examined suggested that this was not a viable option. These results highlight the need for continued research to assess interactions between smallmouth bass and juvenile salmon, and other native species of concern, in the Willamette River Basin. The development of the model is useful for resource managers to understand interactions between these species to prioritize locations for sampling in the future.

White, James S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exploring the Consistency of Water Scarcity Inferences between Large-Scale Hydrologic and Node-Based Water System Model Representations of the Upper Colorado River Basin

Water resources model development and simulation efforts have seen rapid growth in recent decades to aid evaluations and planning around water scarcity and allocation. Models are typically developed by two distinct communities: (1) large-scale hydrologic modelers emphasizing hydroclimatological processes, and (2) water systems modelers emphasizing environmental, infrastructural, and institutional features that shape water scarcity at the local basin level. This study assesses whether two representative models from these communities produce consistent insights when evaluating the water scarcity vulnerabilities in the Upper Colorado River Basin within the state of Colorado. Results showed that although the regional-scale model [model for scale adaptive river transport (MOSART)—water management (WM)] can capture the aggregate effect of all water operations in the basin, it underestimates the subbasin-scale variability in specific user’s vulnerabilities. The basin-scale water systems model [State of Colorado’s Stream Simulation Model (StateMod)] suggests a larger variance of scarcity across the basin’s water users due to its more detailed accounting of local water allocation infrastructure and institutional processes. This model intercomparison highlights potentially significant limitations of large-scale studies in seeking to evaluate water scarcity and actionable adaptation strategies, as well as ways in which basin-scale water systems model’s information can be used to better inform water allocation and shortage when used in tandem with larger-scale hydrological modeling studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prospective Seal Unit Spatial Extent Database for U.S. Sedimentary Basins

The Prospective Seal Unit Spatial Extent Database for U.S. Sedimentary Basins contains a series of spatial datasets representing spatial extents of publicly available data for caprock and seal rock units within the Appalachian Basin, Denver-Julesburg Basin, Great Valley Basin (Sacramento and San Joaquin Basins), Illinois Basin, Michigan Basin, San Juan Basin, U.S. Gulf Coast Basin, and Williston Basin. The database is designed to support carbon storage feasibility and resources assessment for carbon transport and storage (CTS) projects while displaying the spatial extent of prospective seal units and provide a guide to the original data source. This database leverages publicly available data resources from authoritative sources (e.g. U.S. Geological Survey, State Geologic Surveys, and published reports), and aims to help guide users to understand the seal unit's spatial coverage and data gaps from the regional to sub-basin/field scale. The database is organized by seal unit/formation, including the spatial extent for data found to be available for the seal unit. The various datasets represented include spatial extents of the lithologic formation, depth to top structural contour maps, and thickness/isopach maps. Included in this submission are the following resources: 1. Geodatabase/Dataset: “prospective-seal-unit-extents-2025.gdb” 2. ReadMe: “readme-prospective-seal-unit-spatial-extent-dataset-2025.pdf” 3. Data Catalog: “prospective-seal-unit-spatial-extents-data-catalog-2025.xlsx” 4. Data Sources Key: “data-source.csv” Please see NETL disclaimers here: https://netl.doe.gov/home/disclaimer

Basin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing process-based flood frequency analysis for assessing flood hazard and population flood exposure

Recent studies have showcased the use of process-based hydrological models with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) techniques to conduct Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA). This framework, referred hereby FFA-SST, has proved to be a robust strategy to estimate peak flows of specific annual exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year peak flow) that can reflect natural and anthropogenic disturbances, including changes in land use and meteorological patterns. With the objective of advancing the FFA-SST framework, this study presents for the first time the use of an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM) to conduct FFA-SST by extending the analysis from peak flow responses to flood extent, enabling a unique view and analysis of flood hazard and population flood exposure at the basin scale. As a proof-of-concept, we used the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct FFA-SST by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a 2,227 $km^2$ Southeast Texas watershed. We demonstrate that ATS, without site-specific calibration, provides a robust process-based representation of peak flows, flood extent, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, and water storage changes. Our results and analyses, covering frequency curves up to a 500-year return period for peak flows, basin inundation fractions, and the number of people exposed to flooding, offer a unique perspective to analyze flood impacts across spatial scales. Overall, this study provides critical insights for flood risk management by extending the FFA-SST framework to include both flood hazard and population flood exposure analyses at the basin scale. Such an approach will empower stakeholders and disaster emergency agencies with a more comprehensive understanding of flood impacts across the entire basin domain, facilitating informed decision-making for flood risk assessment and management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Water Resource Assessment In The New Mexico Permian Basin: BLM 2023 Assessment Report

The Permian Basin is the highest producing oil field in the United States and is comprised of three component basins including; the Midland Basin, Delaware Basin and the Marfa Basin. This report describes the work conducted by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to investigate the occurrence of usable water (quality, and depth to water) in the Delaware Sub-basin of the Permian Basin. High Production Areas (HPAs) were identified for the region based on Reasonable Foreseeable Development Scenario (RFD) published by New Mexico Tech University. HPAs were established based on potential for future development of oil reserves. The study was initiated by the BLM-Carlsbad Field Office (CFO) based on concerns that special protections for groundwater in these HPAs may be warranted. A combination of analysis of existing data and field work to collect new data for analysis were used to complete the investigation objectives. This study summarizes the most recent analyses in an ongoing project and builds on previously completed work as listed in Table 1. Advancements in directional drilling and well completion technologies have resulted in an exponential growth in the use of hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas extraction in the Permian Basin. Within the New Mexico portion of the Delaware Sub-basin, water demand to complete each hydraulically fractured well is estimated to average 7.3 acre-feet (2.4 million gallons), resulting in 30 billion barrels of water over the life of the plan or 1.5 billion barrels per year. This rising demand is creating concern for the regions ability to provide the necessary water in a manner that fulfills BLM’s role of protecting human health and the environment while sustainably meeting the needs of various water users in the region. This report documents water-level and water chemistry baselines to aid the BLM in understanding the regional water supply dynamics under various management, policy, and growth scenarios and to pre-emptively identify risks to water sustainability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models of the Nutrient Loads Delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

CY2019 Annual Closure Monitoring Report for Corrective Action Unit 98, Frenchman Flat, Underground Test Area, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada (January 2019–December 2019), Revision 1

Three types of monitoring are performed for CAU 98: water quality, water level, and institutional control. These are monitored to determine whether the URs remain protective of human health and the environment, and to ensure that the regulatory boundary objectives are being met. Monitoring data will be used in the future, once multiple years of data are available, to evaluate consistency with the groundwater flow and contaminant transport models because the contaminant boundaries calculated with the models are the primary basis of the UR boundaries. Six wells were sampled for water-quality monitoring in 2019. Contaminants of concern were detected only in the two source/plume wells already known to contain contamination as a result of a radionuclide migration experiment. Tritium concentrations in both of these wells, RNM-2S and UE-5n, remain above the Safe Drinking Water Act maximum contaminant level of 20,000 picocuries per liter but declined in 2019 as compared to measurements in 2018. All other contaminants of concern are below the minimum detection level plus analytical error. The water-level monitoring network includes 16 wells. Depth to water measured in 2019 is generally consistent with recent measurements for all wells. Many wells continue to exhibit a long-term downward trend in water level, though changes from 2018 to 2019 are minimal. The sharp 2016 decline in water level in Well ER-5-3-2 remains unexplained, with the lower level persisting through 2019. Rising water-level trends continue to be observed in Well ER-5-3 deep piezometer and former water supply Well WW-5A. Water supply Well WW-5B experienced a rise in water level as a result of an absence of pumping in the first part of the year (due to a mechanical problem), whereas water levels declined in WW-4 and WW-4A in response to greater pumping in 2019. Institutional control monitoring confirmed the URs are recorded in U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. Air Force land management systems, and that no activities within Frenchman Flat basin are occurring that could potentially affect the contaminant boundaries. Survey of groundwater resources in basins surrounding Frenchman Flat similarly identify no current or pending development that would indicate the need to increase monitoring activities or would otherwise cause concern for the closure decision. The URs continue to prevent exposure of the public, workers, and the environment to contaminants of concern by preventing use of potentially contaminated groundwater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗