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DOE OSTI2025

Basin-Size Mapping: Prediction of Metastable Polymorph Synthesizability Across TaC–TaN Alloys

The sizes of the basins of attraction on the potential energy surface are helpful indicators in determining the experimental synthesizability of metastable phases. In principle, these basins can be controlled with changes in thermodynamic conditions such as composition, pressure, and surface energy. Herein, we use random structure sampling to computationally study how alloying smoothly perturbs basin of attraction sizes. The TaC 1-x N x pseudobinary is an ideal test system given the structural and polymorphic contrast of its parent compounds and their technological relevance as epitaxial substrates for Al 1-x Ga x N. While we find limited thermodynamic stability across all computationally observed phases, random structure sampling shows a significant composition region where the rocksalt basin dominates. As such, we predict the potential for the nonequilibrium synthesis of metastable rocksalt TaC 1-x N x alloys as substrates for Al 1-x Ga x N. At higher nitrogen concentrations, other low-energy metastable polymorphs emerge that continue to retain the hexagonal close packing suitable for III-N growth. Confidence in these trends was established through uncertainty quantification of the basin sizes and energy distributions; such analysis utilized the Beta and Dirichlet distributions. In conclusion, we also find (a) polymorph basin sizes can be rationalized in terms of energetic preferences for different coordination environments; and (b) basin sizes universally shrink with increasing nitrogen content, making the system more prone to amorphous growth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Aridification of Colorado River Basin's Snowpack Regions Has Driven Water Losses Despite Ameliorating Effects of Vegetation

Abstract The Colorado River Basin is an important natural resource for the semi‐arid southwestern United States (US), where it provides water to more than 40 million people. While nearly 1.5°C of anthropogenic warming has occurred across this region from the 1880s to 2021, climate models show little agreement in the precipitation change during the same historical period, with no trend in the mean of the latest (sixth) generation of Global Climate Models. As such, here we focus on how the CO 2 increase and associated anthropogenic warming over the historical period has impacted runoff across the Colorado Basin. We find that the Colorado Basin's runoff over the historical period has decreased by 8.1% per degree Celsius of warming (°C −1 ). However, the magnitude of this sensitivity is reduced to 6.8% °C −1 when considering vegetation response to historical CO 2 . For present‐day conditions, this translates to runoff reductions of 10.3% due to anthropogenic increases in both temperature and CO 2 since 1880. We demonstrate that Colorado Basin's natural flow has been decreased by roughly the storage of Lake Mead during the 2000–2021 megadrought due to this long term anthropogenic influence, suggesting the basin's first shortage in 2021 would likely not have occurred without anthropogenic warming. We further show warming has led to disproportionate aridification in snowpack regions, causing runoff to decline at double the rate relative to non‐snowpack regions. Thus, despite only making up ∼30% of the basin's drainage area, 86% of runoff decreases in the Colorado Basin is driven by water loss in snowpack regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Congo Basin Water Balance and Terrestrial Fluxes Inferred From Satellite Observations of the Isotopic Composition of Water Vapor

Large spatio-temporal gradients in the Congo basin vegetation and rainfall are observed. However, its water-balance (evapotranspiration minus precipitation, or ET - P) is typically measured at basin-scales, limited primarily by river-discharge data, spatial resolution of terrestrial water storage measurements, and poorly constrained ET. We use observations of the isotopic composition of water vapor to quantify the spatio-temporal variability of net surface water fluxes across the Congo Basin between 2003 and 2018. These data are calibrated at basin scale using satellite gravity and total Congo river discharge measurements and then used to estimate time-varying ET - P over four quadrants representing the Congo Basin, providing first estimates of this kind for the region. We find that the multi-year record, seasonality, and interannual variability of ET - P from both the isotopes and the gravity/river discharge based estimates are consistent. Additionally, we use precipitation and gravity-based estimates with our water vapor isotope-based ET - P to calculate time and space averaged ET and net river discharge within the Congo Basin. These quadrant-scale moisture flux estimates indicate (a) substantial recycling of moisture in the Congo Basin (temporally and spatially averaged ET/P > 70%), consistent with models and visible light-based ET estimates, and (b) net river outflow is largest in the Western Congo where there are more rivers and higher flow rates. Our results confirm the importance of ET in modulating the Congo water cycle relative to other water sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Delineation of endorheic drainage basins in the MERIT-Plus dataset for 5 and 15 minute upscaled river networks

Abstract The MERIT-Hydro networks re-gridded by the Iterative Hydrography Upscaling (IHU) algorithm do not retain exo- or endorheic basin attributes from the original data. Here we developed methods to assign such attributes to those and any other digital river networks. The motivation is that endorheic inland drainage basins are essential for hydrologic modelling of global and regional water balances, land surface water storage, gravity anomalies, sea level rise, etc. First, we create basin attributes that explicitly label endorheic and exorheic catchments by the criteria of direct or hidden connectivity to the ocean without changing their flow direction grid. In the second step we alter the delineation of endorheic basins by the merging algorithm that eliminates small inland watersheds to the adjacent host basins. The resulting datasets have a significantly reduced number of endorheic basins while preserving the total land portion and topology of the inland basins. The data was validated using the Water Balance Model by comparing volume of endorheic inland depressions with modelled water accumulation in their inland lakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Profiling the Quito basin (Ecuador) using seismic ambient noise

SUMMARY Quito, the capital of Ecuador, with more than 2.5 M inhabitants, is exposed to a high seismic hazard due to its proximity to the Pacific subduction zone and active crustal faults, both capable of generating significant earthquakes. Furthermore, the city is located in an intermontane piggy-back basin prone to seismic wave amplification. To understand the basin’s seismic response and characterize its geological structure, 20 broad and medium frequency band seismic stations were deployed in Quito’s urban area between May 2016 and July 2018 that continuously recorded ambient seismic noise. We first compute horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios to determine the resonant frequency distribution in the entire basin. Secondly, we cross-correlate seismic stations operating simultaneously to retrieve interstations surface-wave Green’s functions in the frequency range of 0.1–2 Hz. We find that Love waves travelling in the basin’s longitudinal direction (NNE–SSW) show much clearer correlograms than those from Rayleigh waves. We then compute Love wave phase-velocity dispersion curves and invert them in conjunction with the HVSR curves to obtain shear-wave velocity profiles throughout the city. The inversions highlight a clear difference in the basin’s structure between its northern and southern parts. In the centre and northern areas, the estimated basin depth and mean shear-wave velocity are about 200 m and 1800 ms−1, respectively, showing resonance frequency values between 0.6 and 0.7 Hz. On the contrary, the basement’s depth and shear-wave velocity in the southern part are about 900 m and 2500 ms−1, having a low resonance frequency value of around 0.3 Hz. This difference in structure between the centre-north and the south of the basin explains the spatial distribution of low-frequency seismic amplifications observed during the Mw 7.8 Pedernales earthquake in April 2016 in Quito.

Pacheco, D. (ORCID:0000000282355096)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Landscape responses to intraplate deformation in the Kalahari constrained by sediment provenance and chronology in the Okavango Basin

The structural depression that occupies the Okavango Basin in southern Africa comprises a depo-centre within the intracratonic Kalahari Basin where sediments of the Cenozoic Kalahari Group have accumulated. The Okavango Basin has been formed due to stretching and subsidence at an area of diffused deformation, southwestwards to the main East African Rift System (EARS). Sediments from two full Kalahari Group sequences, located on opposite sides of the Gumare Fault that forms a major fault within the Okavango Basin, were studied to determine their provenance and chronology. Terrestrial Cosmogenic Nuclide (TCN) 26 Al/ 10 Be burial dating was used to constrain a chronostratigraphical framework, and Pb, Sr, and Nd isotopic ratios combined with geochemical and sedimentological analyses were applied to track the source areas of the sediments.Results indicate the following sequence of basin filling: (a) Accumulation between ca. 4–3 Ma during which the currently downthrown (southern) block received a mixture of sediments mostly from the Choma-Kalomo, Ghanzi-Chobe, and Damara terranes, and possibly from the Lufilian Belt and/or Karoo basalts during earlier stages of deposition. Simultaneously, the upthrown (northern) block received sediments from more distant Archean sources in the Zimbabwe and/or Kasai cratons, (b) Hiatus in sedimentation occurred at both sites between ca. 3–2 Ma, (c) Sediments on both sides of the Gumare Fault share a similar source (Angolan Shield) with minor distinct contributions to the downthrown block from the Kasai Craton and local sources input to the upthrown block, and (d) Regional distribution of aeolian sand since at least 1 Ma. The change in source areas is attributed to rearrangements of the drainage systems that were probably linked to vertical crustal movements on the margins of the Okavango Basin. The tectonically induced morphodynamics controlled the landscape evolution of the endorheic basin where vast lakes, wetlands and salt pans have developed through time.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mountain Basin Controls on the Snow-to-Streamflow Signal: An AIC-Weighted Multiple Linear Regression Framework

A regression-based analysis quantifies how basin characteristics modulate the snow-to-streamflow signal. First, we use the ERA5-Land reanalysis gridded product (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 5 -Land component) for 4,655 hydrologic unit code - 10 (HUC10) mountain basins across the western United States (US) for water years 1987–2024. Linear regressions are performed for peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and annual streamflow for each mountain basin. Models use ordinary least squares in Python’s statsmodels package. After which, an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)–weighted ensemble multiple linear regression (MLR) framework with 47 watershed traits is used to predict the linear regression coefficient of determination (r-squared) defining the ability of peak SWE to predict annual streamflow across all mountain basin. Predictor sets are constrained to avoid multicollinearity by excluding models with variance inflation factors (VIF) greater than 5. Mountain basin traits included in the MLR include seasonal climate, topography, vegetation type and structure, and bedrock geology. Accepted models are considered if their AIC is within 2.0 of the model with the minimum AIC, or best model. To compare predictor influence across acceptable models, we computed standardized regression coefficients. To evaluate structural redundancy among models, we constructed binary inclusion vectors for each acceptable model, denoting whether a predictor was present (1) or absent (0). Core predictor variables are defined as occurring in at least 67% of the acceptable models. For this regional analysis, only one model was found acceptable, with higher snow-to-streamflow translation (higher r-squared) occurring in colder mountain basins with higher relative winter precipitation, more snow accumulation and a lower fraction of annual precipitation that falls in the spring and summer. The second component of the data package uses previously published, high-resolution output from an integrated hydrological model of the East River watershed using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater and Surface water Flow model (GSFLOW, doi:10.15485/1998576). East River MLR expands upon the approach described above to explore the response of five streamflow metrics—annual streamflow, runoff efficiency, 7-day minimum flow, low-flow duration, and non-perennial stream fraction to snow system indicators including peak SWE, snow-covered area, snow disappearance date, and the fraction of basin area characterized by low-to-no snow, as well as seasonal precipitation and temperature, and annual hydrologic variables representing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), the partitioning of incoming precipitation to evapotranspiration (ET/P), groundwater storage, and groundwater inflow to streams. MLR was done on all water years (P0: 1987-2024) and for each period as determined in the split analysis using pooled regression techniques (P1: 1987-2011 and P2: 2012-2024) to evaluate shifting predictor variable emphasis on streamflow generation. Results indicate that since 2012, peak SWE has lost statistical strength in its prediction of annual streamflow and runoff efficiency, and the indirect influence of spring temperature has emerged as critically important. Low-flow metrics remain largely influenced by soil moisture, vegetation water use and groundwater inflows with summer precipitation becoming a direct influence on minimum summer flow. Together, these data and Python-based analysis tools provide a framework for identifying the key watershed characteristics that control how streamflow responds to snow from year to year. The package also helps quantify uncertainty in statistical models and assess how snow–streamflow relationships vary across regions and over time. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), text files (.txt), python code files (.py), figure files (.png), and shapefiles (.cpg, .dbf, .prj, .sbn, .sbx, .shp, .xml). Further details on file contents and MLR execution can be found in the readme file and the FLMD files. Work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structural Evolution of the Hogback Monocline and Its Tectonic Significance in the San Juan Basin

The San Juan Basin is recognized as a Laramide foreland basin. It is located within the Colorado Plateau, a broad tectonic province characterized by a thick sedimentary sequence that was segmented into smaller sub basins during the Late Cretaceous to Paleogene Laramide orogeny. The Hogback Monocline lies along the northwestern margin of the San Juan Basin and is considered a Laramide-age structure formed in response to compressional stress. In this study, we interpret surface and subsurface datasets to construct a structural geological model and evaluate its tectonic significance. Through seismic data, we identify key fault and fold geometries at depth. The seismic dataset used in this study was reprocessed in depth and constrained with well log velocity data to enhance seismic imaging quality. Additionally, we performed well log correlations to identify formation tops and assess variations in basin infill and thickness geometry. A series of structural cross-sections, constructed using seismic data and a high density of boreholes, are presented to evaluate geometric variations along the structure and its evolution during basin development. Furthermore, kinematic restoration and forward modeling analyses were conducted to validate our structural interpretation. This work suggests that the Hogback Monocline formed through fault-propagation folding and flexural slip affecting the pre-Laramide sedimentary sequence under compressional stresses associated with the Laramide orogeny. This structure is interpreted as a high-angle reverse fault that influenced the geometry of the late basin infill. Additionally, monocline bending along the structure may have been controlled by fault relay systems and, in some cases, influenced by strike-slip faulting.

Reyes, Martin [New Mexico Bureau o fGeology and Mi↗

DOE OSTI2025

Water Column Respiration in the Yakima River Basin is Explained by Temperature, Nutrients and Suspended Solids

Understanding aquatic ecosystem metabolism involves the study of two key processes: carbon fixation via primary production and organic C mineralization as total ecosystem respiration (ERtot). In streams and rivers, ERtot includes respiration in the water column (ERwc) and in the sediments (ERsed). While literature surveys suggest that ERsed is often a dominant contributor to ERtot, recent studies indicate that the relative influence of sediment-associated processes versus water column processes can fluctuate along the river continuum. Still, a comprehensive understanding of the factors contributing to these shifts within basins and across stream orders is needed. Here we contribute to this need by measuring ERwc and collecting water samples across 47 sites in the Yakima River basin, Washington, USA. We found that ERwc rates varied throughout the basin during baseflow conditions, ranging from –7.38 to 0.36 g O2 m?3 d?1, and encompassed the range of ERwc literature values. Additionally, by comparing to ERtot estimates for rivers across the contiguous United States, we suggest that the contribution of ERwc rates to reach-scale ERtot rates across the Yakima River was likely highly variable, but we did not test this directly. We observed that temperature, nutrient concentrations (dissolved organic carbon, total dissolved nitrogen), and total suspended solids explained 41% of ERwc variability across the basin. Our findings highlight the potential relevance of water column processes in aquatic ecosystem metabolism, with the Yakima River basin serving as an environmentally diverse river network representative of the larger Columbia River basin that spans much of the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. Our results are generally congruent with previous work, suggesting that the observed variability and suite of associated environmental factors influencing ERwc are potentially transferable across basins.

Laan, Maggi M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP)

Abstract. Large-scale interaction between the three tropical ocean basins is an area of intense research that is often conducted through experimentation with numerical models. A common problem is that modeling groups use different experimental setups, which makes it difficult to compare results and delineate the role of model biases from differences in experimental setups. To address this issue, an experimental protocol for examining interaction between the tropical basins is introduced. The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP) consists of experiments in which sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed to follow observed values in selected basins. There are two types of experiments. One type, called standard pacemaker, consists of simulations in which SSTs are restored to observations in selected basins during a historical simulation. The other type, called pacemaker hindcast, consists of seasonal hindcast simulations in which SSTs are restored to observations during 12-month forecast periods. TBIMIP is coordinated by the Climate and Ocean – Variability, Predictability, and Change (CLIVAR) Research Focus on Tropical Basin Interaction. The datasets from the model simulations will be made available to the community to facilitate and stimulate research on tropical basin interaction and its role in seasonal-to-decadal variability and climate change.

Richter, Ingo↗

DOE OSTI2024

Amplified Extreme Floods and Shifting Flood Mechanisms in the Delaware River Basin in Future Climates

Abstract Historical records in the Delaware River Basin reveal complex and spatially diverse flood generating mechanisms influenced by the region's mountains‐to‐plains gradients. This study focuses on predicting future flood hazards and understanding the underlying drivers of changes across the region. Using a process‐based hydrological model, we analyzed the hydrometeorological condition of each historical and future flood event. For each event, at the subbasin scale, we identified the dominant flood generating mechanism, including snowmelt, rain‐on‐snow, short‐duration rain, and long‐duration rain. The rain‐induced floods are further categorized based on the soil's Antecedent Moisture Condition (AMC) before the event, whether dry, normal, or wet. Our historical analysis suggests that rain‐on‐snow is the primary flood mechanism of the Upper Basin. Although most frequent, the magnitude of rain‐on‐snow floods is often less severe than short rain floods. In contrast, historical floods in the Lower Basin are primarily caused by short rain under normal AMC. Given the uncertainties in climate projections, we used an ensemble of future climate scenarios for flood projections. Despite variations in regional climate projections, coherent perspectives emerge: the region will shift toward a warmer, wetter climate, with a projected intensification of extreme floods. The Upper Basin is projected to experience a marked decrease in rain‐on‐snow floods, but a substantial increase in short rain floods with wet AMC. The largest increase in flood magnitude will be driven by short rains with wet AMC in the Upper Basin and by short rains with normal AMC in the Lower Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Microbial Community and Functional Potential in the Midland Basin Reveal a Community Dominated by Both Thiosulfate and Sulfate-Reducing Microorganisms

The Permian Basin is the highest producing oil and gas reservoir in the United States. Hydrocarbon resources in this region are often accessed by unconventional extraction methods, including horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Despite the importance of the Permian Basin, there is no publicly available microbiological data from this region. We completed an analysis of Permian produced water samples to understand the dynamics present in hydraulically fractured wells in this region. We analyzed produced water samples taken from 10 wells in the Permian region of the Midland Basin using geochemical measurements, 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and metagenomic sequencing. Compared to other regions, we found that Permian Basin produced water was characterized by higher sulfate and lower total dissolved solids (TDS) concentrations, with a median of 1,110 mg/L and 107,000 mg/L. Additionally, geochemical measurements revealed the presence of frac hits, or interwell communication events where an established well is affected by the pumping of fracturing fluid into a new well. The occurrence of frac hits was supported by correlations between the microbiome and the geochemical parameters. Our 16S rRNA gene sequencing identified a produced water microbiome characterized by anaerobic, halophilic, and sulfur reducing taxa. Interestingly, sulfate and thiosulfate reducing taxa including Halanaerobium, Orenia, Marinobacter, and Desulfohalobium were the most prevalent microbiota in most wells. We further investigated the metabolic potential of microorganisms in the Permian Basin with metagenomic sequencing. We recovered 15 metagenome assembled genomes (MAGs) from seven different samples representing 6 unique well sites. These MAGs corroborated the high presence of sulfate and thiosulfate reducing genes across all wells, especially from key taxa including Halanaerobium and Orenia. The observed microbiome composition and metabolic capabilities in conjunction with the high sulfate concentrations demonstrate a high potential for hydrogen sulfide production in the Permian Basin. Additionally, evidence of frac hits suggests the possibility for the exchange of microbial cells and/or genetic information between wells. This exchange would increase the likelihood of hydrogen sulfide production and has implications for the oil and gas industry.

16S RNA↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Framework Using Applied Process Analysis Methods to Assess Water Security in the Vu Gia–Thu Bon River Basin, Vietnam

The Vu Gia–Thu Bon (VG–TB) river basin is facing numerous challenges to water security, particularly in light of the increasing impacts of climate change. These challenges, including salinity intrusion, shifts in rainfall patterns, and reduced water supply in downstream areas, are of great concern. This study comprehensively assessed the current state of water security in the basin using robust statistical analysis methods such as the Process Analysis Method (PAM), SMART principle, and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This resulted in the development of a comprehensive assessment framework for water security in the VG–TB river basin. This framework identified five key dimensions, with basin development activities (0.32), the ability to meet water needs (0.24), and natural disaster resilience (0.19) being the most crucial and water resource potential being the least crucial (0.11) according to the AHP methodology. The latter also highlighted 15 indicators, four of which are particularly influential, including waste resources (0.54), flood (0.53), water storage capacity (0.45), and basin governance (0.42). Furthermore, 28 variables with high weight factors were identified. This framework aligns with the UN-Water water security definition and addresses the global water sustainability criteria outlined in Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG6). It enables the computation of a comprehensive Water Security Index (WSI) for specific regions, providing a strong foundation for decision-making and policy formulation. It aims to enhance water security in the context of climate change and support sustainable basin development, thereby guiding future research and policy decisions in water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Applicability of 1D site response analysis to shallow sedimentary basins: A critical evaluation through physics-based 3D ground motion simulations

One-dimensional site response analysis (1D SRA) remains the standard practice in considering the effect of local soil deposits and predicting site-specific ground motions, although its range of applicability to realistic seismic wavefields is still in question. In this 1D approach, horizontal and vertical ground shaking are assumed to be induced by vertically propagating shear and compressional waves, respectively. A recent study based on analytical two-dimensional (2D) plane waves and simple point source earthquake simulations has shown two mechanistic limitations in this 1D modelling technique for general inclined seismic waves, that is, systematic over-prediction of the vertical motion and wave trapping in the 1D soil column. In this article, we evaluate in detail the applicability of this 1D modelling approach to realistic three-dimensional (3D) simulated seismic wavefields in shallow sedimentary basins. Linear-viscoelastic 1D SRA predictions using two types of input motions that are commonly used in practice—rock outcrop and in-column motions, are compared with the reference true site response results from 3D earthquake simulations in terms of various measures in the frequency and time domain. It is shown that the horizontal motion in the 3D seismic wavefield exhibits dominant shear wave propagation phenomenon, while the vertical motion is a combined effect of compressional and shear waves and can be over-predicted by the 1D approach when the incident seismic waves are inclined. Direct evidence of the wave refraction process that leads to the vertical motion over-prediction is provided. 1D SRA with in-column inputs can yield motions that have significantly longer duration compared to the true 3D site response solution due to trapped waves, casting in doubt the frequent need for increased soil damping in existing site studies to compensate for wave attenuation due to scattering alone. Sensitivity investigation on the increase of soil profile damping by a multiplier D mul shows D mul values compatible with those found in the literature for both horizontal and vertical motions. It is shown that the level of D mul optimized for a best match of the spectral acceleration is dependent on the characteristic of the input motion and a larger D mul is typically required for the vertical component. In contrast, 1D SRA with outcrop motions predicts motions with shorter significant duration due to its inability to capture the basin-edge generated surface waves. A suite of ground motion simulations was performed to assess the sensitivity of the observations to the basin geologic structure including the velocity gradient, rock-basin impedance contrast and basin depth. The analysis results show that the accuracy of the simplified 1D procedure is dependent on the wavefield composition of both the input motions and the true 3D site response solution. While the horizontal motions in shallow sedimentary basins can, to the first order, be reasonably captured by the simplified 1D approach, 1D SRA for the vertical component is in general not reliable and contributions from inclined shear waves should be accounted for in site-specific evaluation of the vertical design ground motion.

1D assumption↗

DOE OSTI2025

A novel approach to increase accuracy in remotely sensed evapotranspiration through basin water balance and flux tower constraints

Remote sensing-derived evapotranspiration (RSET) products capture the spatiotemporal variations of evapotranspiration (ET) from field to basin scales with unprecedented details. However, their accuracy varies across RSET estimation methods and diverse hydroclimate regions. While ET modeling efforts to account for biophysical processes and controlling parameters have made good progress in recent years, a parallel approach of integrating in-situ ET with RSET could reduce biases in RSET products. Basin water balance ET (WBET) and flux tower ET are widely applied to evaluate RSET accuracy, yet such ET measurements are rarely used for RSET bias corrections, especially for large area applications. To address this issue, we propose a novel approach: the water balance equivalence (WABE) method, which generates spatially continuous WBET for correcting biases in RSET products. The WABE method computes synthetic WBET by integrating observed WBET and flux tower-derived FLUXCOM ET, which fills the spatial gaps of observed WBET and generates a spatially continuous WBET dataset. Synthetic WBET (2002–2015 annual average) of eight-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) basins across the conterminous United States (CONUS), constituting 44 % (887 out of 2035 basins) of CONUS basins, was determined within 2.0 % (RMSE = 12 %) of observed WBET at CONUS and between 1–12 % (RMSE = 3–33 %) across 18 regions in CONUS. With WABE-based bias corrections, the overall annual bias of RSET decreased from 10 % (RMSE = 34 %) to 6 % (RMSE = 26 %) across 37 flux tower sites. The WABE method offers a new approach for RSET accuracy improvement and shows great promise for large area implementations with a potential to yield substantial benefits for building accurate basin water budgets and water management decisions.

Khand, Kul↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hydrate-bearing sands in the Terrebonne Basin record the transition from ponded deposition to bypass in the deep-water Gulf of Mexico

Here, we integrated well and seismic data to interpret the stratigraphic architecture and the paleogeographic evolution of two hydrate-bearing sand reservoirs in the Terrebonne Basin in the deep-water Gulf of Mexico. These sands were deposited during the final stage of ponded fill within the Terrebonne Basin. The Green sand filled the final accommodation in the basin as a perched apron; it was formed coincidentally with downstream erosion and sediment bypass which cut through a canyon formed on the southeastern edge of the basin. Subsequently, a low energy turbidite channel continued to bypass sediment through the basin and aggrade. The Orange sand was then deposited as a second perched apron and it was once again incised by the low energy turbidite channel. The Green and Orange sands are regional sheet sands that extend and thicken deep into the Terrebonne Basin. They provide a connected regional aquifer that captured and focused gas migration to the crest of the structure where hydrate was formed. These sands were formed by large, unconfined, turbidity flows. We envision that they will be composed of coarser grained deposits relative to previously explored hydrate reservoirs within levee deposits. As such, they have the potential to be relatively coarse grained and hence have higher permeability: a condition favorable to production of hydrate deposits.

3D seismic interpretation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing Shifts in Regional Hydroclimatic Conditions of U.S. River Basins in Response to Climate Change over the 21st Century

Characterization of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions helps reduce negative consequences on agriculture, environment, economy, society, and ecosystem. This study assesses shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions across the conterminous United States in response to climate change over the 21 st Century. The hydrological responses of five downscaled climate models from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset ranging from the driest to wettest and least warm to hottest were simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions at 8-digit hydrologic unit scale (HUC8) were evaluated by the magnitude and direction of movements in the Budyko space. HUC8 river basins were then clustered into seven unique hydroclimatic behavior groups using the K-means method. A tree classification method was proposed to illustrate the relationships between hydroclimatic behavior groups and regional characteristics. The results indicate that hydroclimatic responses may vary from a river basin to another, but basins in the same neighborhood follow a similar movement in the Budyko space. The systematic hydroclimatic behavior of river basins is highly associated with their regional landform, climate, and ecosystem characteristics. Most HUC8s with Mountain, Plateau and Basin landform types will likely experience less arid conditions. However, most HUC8s with Plain landform type behave differently according to the regional ecosystem and climate. This study provides a potential roadmap of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions of U.S. river basins, which can be used to improve regional preparedness and ability of various sectors to mitigate or adapt to the impacts of future hydroclimate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stress Field Dynamics and Fault Slip Potential in the Paradox Basin

Abstract The Paradox Basin, straddling Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico is characterized by an intricate amalgamation of evaporites and clastic layers and is dominated by prominent salt walls and related subsurface structures. Our research offers a new examination of the stress distribution across the basin, deriving from continuous and discrete stress measurements conducted in boreholes in the region and focal mechanism analysis, emphasizing variations over salt structures. Integrating Coulomb failure criteria with probabilistic methods, we assess potential fault movements resulting from fluid pressure alterations. Our approach provides a comprehensive understanding of the Paradox Basin's state of stress, showing a continuous change of the maximum horizontal stress orientation from N‐S at the Wasatch Fault Zone to WNW‐ESE in the northern part of the Paradox Basin and to WSW‐ENE in the southern part of the basin. Further East, into the Colorado Plateau and the Uncompahgre Uplift, the S H max orientation becomes E‐W. Decoding stress orientation dynamics has enabled critical insights into fault slip potential, especially in the basin's northern region. The salt wall faults are less likely to slip, and the Paradox Formation's evaporite and clastic rock sequence can serve as a potential low seismic risk target for carbon storage and hydrocarbon extraction.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗