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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Jensen–Shannon divergence based novel loss functions for Bayesian neural networks

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are state-of-the-art machine learning methods that can naturally regularize and systematically quantify uncertainties using their stochastic parameters. Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence-based variational inference used in BNNs suffer from unstable optimization and challenges in approximating light-tailed posteriors due to the unbounded nature of the KL divergence. To resolve these issues, we formulate a novel loss function for BNNs based on a new modification to the generalized Jensen–Shannon (JS) divergence, which is bounded. In addition, we propose a Geometric JS divergence-based loss, which is computationally efficient since it can be evaluated analytically. We found that the JS divergence-based variational inference is intractable, and hence employed a constrained optimization framework to formulate these losses. Our theoretical analysis and empirical experiments on multiple regression and classification data sets suggest that the proposed losses perform better than the KL divergence-based loss, especially when the data sets are noisy or biased. Specifically, there are approximately 5% and 8% improvements in accuracy for a noise-added CIFAR-10 dataset and a regression dataset, respectively. There is about 13% reduction in false negative predictions of a biased histopathology dataset. Additionally, we quantify and compare the uncertainty metrics for the regression and classification tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning enhanced characterization and optimization of photonic cured MAPbI 3 for efficient perovskite solar cells

Photonic curing (PC) can facilitate high-speed perovskite solar cell (PSC) manufacturing because it uses high-intensity light pulses to crystallize perovskite films in milliseconds. However, optimizing PC conditions is challenging due to its many variables, and using power conversion efficiency (PCE) as the optimization metric is both time-consuming and labor-intensive. This work presents a machine learning (ML) approach to optimize PC conditions for fabricating methylammonium lead iodide (MAPbI 3 ) films by quantitatively comparing their ultraviolet-visible (UV-vis) absorbance spectra to thermal annealed (TA) films using four similarity metrics. We perform Bayesian optimization coupled with Gaussian process regression (BO-GP) to minimize the similarity metrics. Refining PC conditions using active learning based on BO-GP models, we achieve a PC MAPbI3 film with an absorbance spectrum closely matching a TA reference film, which is further verified by its crystalline and morphological properties. Thus, we demonstrate that the UV-vis absorption spectrum can accurately proxy film quality. Additionally, we use an AI-based segmentation model for a more efficient grain size analysis. However, when we use the optimized PC condition to fabricate PSCs, we find that interaction between MAPbI 3 and the hole transport layer (HTL) during PC critically degrades the PSC performance. By adding a buffer layer between the HTL and MAPbI 3 , the optimized PC PSCs produce a champion PCE of 11.8%, comparable to the TA reference of 11.7%. Using UV-vis similarity metrics instead of device PCE as the objective in our BO-GP method accelerates the optimization of PC processing conditions for MAPbI 3 films.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving the Parameterization of Cloud and Rain Microphysics in E3SM using Novel Observationally-Constrained Bayesian Approach (Final Technical Report)

In this project, we sought to develop new cloud and rain microphysics frameworks within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). This work encompassed two primary avenues of research: 1) Further development of a Bayesian-based scheme called BOSS (Bayesian Observationally-constrained Statistical-physical Scheme) to represent cloud and rain microphysics, testing it in realistic high-resolution cloud models, and implementing it in E3SM; 2) Development of a methodology utilizing machine learning to enable computationally tractable use of tractable use of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for Bayesian parameter estimation in Earth system and cloud models. In this project, we adapted the BOSS microphysics scheme, originally formulated for rain-only, to include all liquid-phase microphysical processes for cloud and rain, in particular the processes that mediate between these two categories, for example the conversion from cloud to rain through collision and coalescence of drops. We constrained the scheme via comparison and testing against a detailed model that explicitly represents the evolution of cloud and rain particles, called a bin microphysics scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting fusion ignition at the National Ignition Facility with physics-informed deep learning

Here, an inertial confinement fusion experiment, carried out at the National Ignition Facility, has achieved ignition by generating fusion energy exceeding the laser energy that drove the experiment. Prior to the experiment, a generative machine learning model that combines radiation hydrodynamics simulations, deep learning, experimental data, and Bayesian statistics was used to predict, with a probability greater than 70%, that ignition was the most likely outcome for this shot.

Spears, Brian K. [Lawrence Livermore National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2024

A general Bayesian algorithm for the autonomous alignment of beamlines

Autonomous methods to align beamlines can decrease the amount of time spent on diagnostics, and also uncover better global optima leading to better beam quality. The alignment of these beamlines is a high-dimensional expensive-to-sample optimization problem involving the simultaneous treatment of many optical elements with correlated and nonlinear dynamics. Bayesian optimization is a strategy of efficient global optimization that has proved successful in similar regimes in a wide variety of beamline alignment applications, though it has typically been implemented for particular beamlines and optimization tasks. In this paper, we present a basic formulation of Bayesian inference and Gaussian process models as they relate to multi-objective Bayesian optimization, as well as the practical challenges presented by beamline alignment. We show that the same general implementation of Bayesian optimization with special consideration for beamline alignment can quickly learn the dynamics of particular beamlines in an online fashion through hyperparameter fitting with no prior information. We present the implementation of a concise software framework for beamline alignment and test it on four different optimization problems for experiments on X-ray beamlines at the National Synchrotron Light Source II and the Advanced Light Source, and an electron beam at the Accelerator Test Facility, along with benchmarking on a simulated digital twin. We discuss new applications of the framework, and the potential for a unified approach to beamline alignment at synchrotron facilities.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning-based Bayesian framework for high-resolution calibration of building energy models

Calibrating building energy models (BEMs), i.e., closing discrepancy between modeling and field measurements, is of significance to support its applications in building sustainability and resilience analysis. However, as being widely used in practice, current Bayesian calibration is mostly performed in low-resolution (annual or monthly), instead of high-resolution (hourly or sub-hourly), which is crucial to support emerging BEM applications, such as building-renewable energy integration (demand response) and smart control. This is attributable to the gaps in current Bayesian calibration process, including (1) difficulty in supporting reliable high-resolution calibration with over-parameterization and multi-solution issues, (2) inadequacy of meta-model to capture temporal building dynamics in high-resolution, and (3) excessive computational burdens of covariance matrix calculation in Bayesian inference. Therefore, to close these gaps, this research proposes a novel deep learning-based Bayesian calibration framework, involving pre-calibration mechanism, Long Short-Term Memory as surrogate models, and simplified covariance matrix calculation, to calibrate BEMs in high temporal resolution (i.e., hourly) with enhanced accuracy and computational efficiency. Finally, the case study demonstrates its effectiveness to match modeling outcomes with measurements and realize CV-RMSE of < 30 % and NMBE of < 6 % in hourly resolution, as well as a significant reduction of calibration time (by > 99 %, from > 600 h to ~ 1.5 h).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Annual Report on NCSP Technical Support task in BNL during FY24

This work reports on the investigations done during FY 24 in collaboration with two 2024 Summer undergraduate interns through the DOE SULI and BNL SURP programs. These efforts were partially funded by the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program through the Technical Support Succession Plan task. The first project, developed by Ian Snider, focused on testing the impact of uncertainties in thermal cross sections for multiple materials in nuclear reactor simulations. The second project aimed implement concurrent into BNL’s machine-learning code to correct spin mis-assignments in neutron resonances, the Bayesian Resonance Reclassifier (BRR).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Annual Report on NCSP Technical Support task in BNL during FY25

This work reports on the investigations done during FY 25 in collaboration with one 2025 Summer undergraduate intern through the DOE SULI program. These efforts were partially funded by the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program through the Technical Support Succession Plan task. This project, developed by Matthew Molnar, aimed to apply the BNL’s machine-learning code to correct spin mis-assignments in neutron resonances, the Bayesian Resonance Reclassifier (BRR), to the odd-even nucleus 143 Nd. For this, the handling of spingroup classification had to be further investigated and improved.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-modal dynamic radiography using short-pulse laser-generated probe beams

Radiography is an important tool for the interrogation of dynamic experiments in the fields of dynamic properties of materials, and in condensed matter, high explosive, and high-energy-density physics. Multi-modal radiography advances the hypothesis that combining the information delivered by multiple radiographic modalities can lead to more constrained (improved) “reconstruction” of the scene than can be obtained from a single probe. We identify four modalities: multi-probe, time sequence, multi-view, and multi-messenger. Multi-probe radiography is a promising candidate for a next-generation dynamic radiographic facility. High-energy X-rays are the most frequently used probe for dynamic radiography, although recent developments show the utility of proton (pRad), electron (eRad), and neutron probe beams. Because each probing species interacts with material in the radiographic scene through quantitatively different mechanisms, each returns independent information about the scene, which can add extra constraints to the reconstruction process. How to conduct detailed, quantitative “co-analysis” of multiple data streams remains an area of active research. Multi-beam, short-pulse, laser-generated probes offer sufficient dose, an appropriate spectrum, and appropriate spatio-temporal resolution to produce high-quality dynamic radiographs. This paper reports on technology development to advance the state of the art of multi-modal/multi-probe radiography and the pursuit of both deterministic and inferential (AI/ML assisted) co-analysis methodologies to produce more constrained reconstructions from multi-modal data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multivariate Testing of Sampling Techniques to Address Class Imbalance in Building Use Type Classification

This study addresses the challenges inherent in building use type classification, particularly focusing on the issue of class imbalance in the training datasets for machine learning classifiers. We comprehensively analyze the efficacy of various class-balancing sampling techniques. Employing Monte Carlo simulations and Bayesian optimization, we evaluated the performance of multiple sampling methods, including Random Oversampling, Random Undersampling, SMOTE, Borderline-SMOTE, and ADASYN, across a dataset encompassing nine southeastern coastal states of the United States. Our findings reveal that simple random over- and undersampling techniques outperform more sophisticated methods. Additionally, we show inherent value in creating an imbalance in training data to effectively train a machine learning classifier for distinguishing between residential and nonresidential buildings. This study provides valuable guidance for future research on building use type classification research and lays essential groundwork for developing attribute-rich building stock datasets.

Adams, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Machine Learning Concept for DTN Routing

This paper discusses the concept and architecture of a machine learning based router for delay tolerant space networks. The techniques of reinforcement learning and Bayesian learning are used to supplement the routing decisions of the popular Contact Graph Routing algorithm. An introduction to the concepts of Contact Graph Routing, Q-routing and Naive Bayes classification are given. The development of an architecture for a cross-layer feedback framework for DTN (Delay-Tolerant Networking) protocols is discussed. Finally, initial simulation setup and results are given.

Delay Tolerant Networks↗
NASA NTRS2016

Time Series Explorer: Bayesian Blocks with Generalized Profiles and in Higher Dimensions

The Time Series Explorer (TSE) is a project aimed at provided new and advanced time series analysis algorithms in two forms: a tool kit and an automated pipeline applying selected tools in machine learning settings. I will present a sketch of TSE with emphasis on time-domain modeling in general and recent improvements of the Bayesian Block (BB) algorithm in particular. This includes generalizing the shape of the elementary blocks from the current constant-rate model to general shapes, such as two-sided exponentials. Related topics will include extension of BB to higher dimensions and a novel way to detect and characterize short time-scale bursts in time-tagged event data. The Fermi Gamma Ray Space Telescope light curve for the Crab Nebula will be used as an example for all of the algorithms discussed. This work is in collaboration with Tom Loredo.

Bayesian Block (BB) algorithm↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scalable Bayesian Physics-Informed Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a pivotal role in scientific machine learning, especially when surrogate models are used to approximate complex systems. Although multilayer perceptions (MLPs) are commonly employed as surrogates, they often suffer from overfitting due to their large number of parameters. Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KANs) offer an alternative solution with fewer parameters. However, gradient-based inference methods, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), may result in computational inefficiency when applied to KANs, especially for large-scale datasets, due to the high cost of back-propagation. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach, combining the dropout Tikhonov ensemble Kalman inversion (DTEKI) with Chebyshev KANs. This gradient-free method effectively mitigates overfitting and enhances numerical stability. In addition, we incorporate the active subspace method to reduce the parameter-space dimensionality, allowing us to improve the accuracy of predictions and obtain more reliable uncertainty estimates. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in various test cases, including scenarios with large datasets and high noise levels. Our results show that the new method achieves comparable or better accuracy, much higher efficiency as well as stability compared to HMC, in addition to scalability. Moreover, by leveraging the low-dimensional parameter subspace, our method preserves prediction accuracy while substantially reducing further the computational cost.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2018

Generating Exploration Mission-3 Trajectories to a 9:2 NRHO using Machine Learning

The purpose of this thesis is to design a machine learning algorithm platform that provides expanded knowledge of mission availability through a launch season by improving trajectory resolution and introducing launch mission forecasting. The specific scenario addressed in this paper is one in which data is provided for four deterministic translational maneuvers through a mission to a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) with a 9:2 synodic frequency. Current launch availability knowledge under NASA's Orion Orbit Performance Team is established by altering optimization variables associated to given reference launch epochs. This current method can bean abstract task and relies on an orbit analyst to structure a mission based on an established mission design methodology associated to the performance of Orion and NASA's Space Launch System. Introducing a machine learning algorithm trained to construct mission scenarios within the feasible range of known trajectories reduces the required interaction of the orbit analyst by removing the needed step of optimizing the orbit to fit an expected translational response required of the spacecraft. In this study, k-Nearest Neighbor and Bayesian Linear Regression successfully predicted classical orbital elements for the launch windows observed. However both algorithms had limitations due to their approaches to model fitting. Training machine learning algorithms off of classical orbital elements introduced a repetitive approach to reconstructing mission segments for different arrival opportunities through the launch window and can prove to be a viable method of launch window scan generation for future missions.

Guzman, Esteban↗
NASA NTRS2009

Parametric Analysis of a Hover Test Vehicle using Advanced Test Generation and Data Analysis

Large complex aerospace systems are generally validated in regions local to anticipated operating points rather than through characterization of the entire feasible operational envelope of the system. This is due to the large parameter space, and complex, highly coupled nonlinear nature of the different systems that contribute to the performance of the aerospace system. We have addressed the factors deterring such an analysis by applying a combination of technologies to the area of flight envelop assessment. We utilize n-factor (2,3) combinatorial parameter variations to limit the number of cases, but still explore important interactions in the parameter space in a systematic fashion. The data generated is automatically analyzed through a combination of unsupervised learning using a Bayesian multivariate clustering technique (AutoBayes) and supervised learning of critical parameter ranges using the machine-learning tool TAR3, a treatment learner. Covariance analysis with scatter plots and likelihood contours are used to visualize correlations between simulation parameters and simulation results, a task that requires tool support, especially for large and complex models. We present results of simulation experiments for a cold-gas-powered hover test vehicle.

Gundy-Burlet, Karen↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dragonfly Rotor Optimization using Machine Learning Applied to an OVERFLOW Generated Airfoil Database

NASA’s 4th New Frontiers Mission is the Titan Dragonfly relocatable lander. This coaxial quadrotor vehicle will be launched on a rocket to Titan in 2028. Following a gravity assisted Earth flyby and an approximate 6-year transit, Dragonfly will enter the Titan atmosphere around 2034 with the goal of exploring Titan’s pre-biotic chemistry and habitability. The multirotor design for this unique application has continually evolved since 2016 with constraints such as Titan’s cryogenic atmosphere at 95 Kelvin (-288 F), gravity 14% that of Earth’s, atmospheric density 440% of standard sea-level air, and the inability to test the entire system together under all these conditions until the first flight on Titan. This paper focuses on rotor design aspects of the Dragonfly lander and introduces a novel framework for multirotor design optimization considering multiple flight conditions. The methodology leverages machine learning methods and is demonstrated in the context of Dragonfly. A new OVERFLOW Machine Learning Airfoil Performance (PALMO) database is first presented. PALMO is then wrapped inside a Bayesian optimization framework and applied to a 4-rotor system (one side of the Dragonfly lander). Training data is generated on each iteration of the optimization using the CAMRAD-II comprehensive analysis software to evaluate successive rotor designs in multiple relevant flight conditions. An optimal design for the 4-rotor system was found with approximately 900 rotor designs analyzed in CAMRAD-II, which required 9 million queries of the PALMO surrogate models. This demonstration case evaluated 10,000,000 potential candidate rotor designs in 5.5 hours on 114 CPU cores using uniform inflow, and in 27.8 hours using the prescribed wake model. This work thus enables mid-fidelity rotor design optimization without requiring access to high-performance computing.

Dragonfly↗