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NASA NTRS2003

Hierarchies of Models: Toward Understanding Planetary Nebulae

Stars like our sun (initial masses between 0.8 to 8 solar masses) end their lives as swollen red giants surrounded by cool extended atmospheres. The nuclear reactions in their cores create carbon, nitrogen and oxygen, which are transported by convection to the outer envelope of the stellar atmosphere. As the star finally collapses to become a white dwarf, this envelope is expelled from the star to form a planetary nebula (PN) rich in organic molecules. The physics, dynamics, and chemistry of these nebulae are poorly understood and have implications not only for our understanding of the stellar life cycle but also for organic astrochemistry and the creation of prebiotic molecules in interstellar space. We are working toward generating three-dimensional models of planetary nebulae (PNe), which include the size, orientation, shape, expansion rate and mass distribution of the nebula. Such a reconstruction of a PN is a challenging problem for several reasons. First, the data consist of images obtained over time from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and spectra obtained from Kitt Peak National Observatory (KPNO) and Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO). These images are of course taken from a single viewpoint in space, which amounts to a very challenging tomographic reconstruction. Second, the fact that we have two disparate and orthogonal data types requires that we utilize a method that allows these data to be used together to obtain a solution. To address these first two challenges we employ Bayesian model estimation using a parameterized physical model that incorporates much prior information about the known physics of the PN. In our previous works we have found that the forward problem of the comprehensive model is extremely time consuming. To address this challenge, we explore the use of a set of hierarchical models, which allow us to estimate increasingly more detailed sets of model parameters. These hierarchical models of increasing complexity are akin to scientific theories of increasing sophistication, with each new model/theory being a refinement of a previous one by either incorporating additional prior information or by introducing a new set of parameters to model an entirely new phenomenon. We apply these models to both a simulated and a real ellipsoidal PN to initially estimate the position, angular size, and orientation of the nebula as a two-dimensional object and use these estimates to later examine its three-dimensional properties. The efficiency/accuracy tradeoffs of the techniques are studied to determine the advantages and disadvantages of employing a set of hierarchical models over a single comprehensive model.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Bayesian inference in geomagnetism

The inverse problem in empirical geomagnetic modeling is investigated, with critical examination of recently published studies. Particular attention is given to the use of Bayesian inference (BI) to select the damping parameter lambda in the uniqueness portion of the inverse problem. The mathematical bases of BI and stochastic inversion are explored, with consideration of bound-softening problems and resolution in linear Gaussian BI. The problem of estimating the radial magnetic field B(r) at the earth core-mantle boundary from surface and satellite measurements is then analyzed in detail, with specific attention to the selection of lambda in the studies of Gubbins (1983) and Gubbins and Bloxham (1985). It is argued that the selection method is inappropriate and leads to lambda values much larger than those that would result if a reasonable bound on the heat flow at the CMB were assumed.

Backus, George E.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Information Theoretic Approaches to Rapid Discovery of Relationships in Large Climate Data Sets

Mutual information as the asymptotic Bayesian measure of independence is an excellent starting point for investigating the existence of possible relationships among climate-relevant variables in large data sets, As mutual information is a nonlinear function of of its arguments, it is not beholden to the assumption of a linear relationship between the variables in question and can reveal features missed in linear correlation analyses. However, as mutual information is symmetric in its arguments, it only has the ability to reveal the probability that two variables are related. it provides no information as to how they are related; specifically, causal interactions or a relation based on a common cause cannot be detected. For this reason we also investigate the utility of a related quantity called the transfer entropy. The transfer entropy can be written as a difference between mutual informations and has the capability to reveal whether and how the variables are causally related. The application of these information theoretic measures is rested on some familiar examples using data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) to identify relation between global cloud cover and other variables, including equatorial pacific sea surface temperature (SST), over seasonal and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Intelligent machines in the twenty-first century: foundations of inference and inquiry

The last century saw the application of Boolean algebra to the construction of computing machines, which work by applying logical transformations to information contained in their memory. The development of information theory and the generalization of Boolean algebra to Bayesian inference have enabled these computing machines, in the last quarter of the twentieth century, to be endowed with the ability to learn by making inferences from data. This revolution is just beginning as new computational techniques continue to make difficult problems more accessible. Recent advances in our understanding of the foundations of probability theory have revealed implications for areas other than logic. Of relevance to intelligent machines, we recently identified the algebra of questions as the free distributive algebra, which will now allow us to work with questions in a way analogous to that which Boolean algebra enables us to work with logical statements. In this paper, we examine the foundations of inference and inquiry. We begin with a history of inferential reasoning, highlighting key concepts that have led to the automation of inference in modern machine-learning systems. We then discuss the foundations of inference in more detail using a modern viewpoint that relies on the mathematics of partially ordered sets and the scaffolding of lattice theory. This new viewpoint allows us to develop the logic of inquiry and introduce a measure describing the relevance of a proposed question to an unresolved issue. Last, we will demonstrate the automation of inference, and discuss how this new logic of inquiry will enable intelligent machines to ask questions. Automation of both inference and inquiry promises to allow robots to perform science in the far reaches of our solar system and in other star systems by enabling them not only to make inferences from data, but also to decide which question to ask, which experiment to perform, or which measurement to take given what they have learned and what they are designed to understand.

Review↗

NASA NTRS2015

Detection and Modeling of High-Dimensional Thresholds for Fault Detection and Diagnosis

Many Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) systems use discrete models for detection and reasoning. To obtain categorical values like oil pressure too high, analog sensor values need to be discretized using a suitablethreshold. Time series of analog and discrete sensor readings are processed and discretized as they come in. This task isusually performed by the wrapper code'' of the FDD system, together with signal preprocessing and filtering. In practice,selecting the right threshold is very difficult, because it heavily influences the quality of diagnosis. If a threshold causesthe alarm trigger even in nominal situations, false alarms will be the consequence. On the other hand, if threshold settingdoes not trigger in case of an off-nominal condition, important alarms might be missed, potentially causing hazardoussituations. In this paper, we will in detail describe the underlying statistical modeling techniques and algorithm as well as the Bayesian method for selecting the most likely shape and its parameters. Our approach will be illustrated by several examples from the Aerospace domain.

Computer Systems↗

NASA NTRS2015

Development and Execution of the RUNSAFE Runway Safety Bayesian Belief Network Model

One focus area of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is to improve aviation safety. Runway safety is one such thrust of investigation and research. The two primary components of this runway safety research are in runway incursion (RI) and runway excursion (RE) events. These are adverse ground-based aviation incidents that endanger crew, passengers, aircraft and perhaps other nearby people or property. A runway incursion is the incorrect presence of an aircraft, vehicle or person on the protected area of a surface designated for the landing and take-off of aircraft; one class of RI events simultaneously involves two aircraft, such as one aircraft incorrectly landing on a runway while another aircraft is taking off from the same runway. A runway excursion is an incident involving only a single aircraft defined as a veer-off or overrun off the runway surface. Within the scope of this effort at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), generic RI, RE and combined (RI plus RE, or RUNSAFE) event models have each been developed and implemented as a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). Descriptions of runway safety issues from the literature searches have been used to develop the BBN models. Numerous considerations surrounding the process of developing the event models have been documented in this report. The event models were then thoroughly reviewed by a Subject Matter Expert (SME) panel through multiple knowledge elicitation sessions. Numerous improvements to the model structure (definitions, node names, node states and the connecting link topology) were made by the SME panel. Sample executions of the final RUNSAFE model have been presented herein for baseline and worst-case scenarios. Finally, a parameter sensitivity analysis for a given scenario was performed to show the risk drivers. The NASA and LaRC research in runway safety event modeling through the use of BBN technology is important for several reasons. These include: 1) providing a means to clearly understand the cause and effect patterns leading to safety issues, incidents and accidents, 2) enabling the prioritization of specialty areas needing more attention to improve aviation safety, and 3) enabling the identification of gaps within NASA's Aviation Safety funding portfolio

Green, Lawrence L.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Summary and Annotated Bibliography of Measurement Error Corrections with Potential Application in Future Quesst Mission Community Noise Studies

This document is motivated by likely needs of the Quesst mission community response tests, which will culminate in data collection and estimation of dose-response regression relationships for consideration by domestic and international aviation regulators. Furthermore, basic research questions evaluating interactions between rates of community annoyance, dose levels, and indicators of the presence of rattle, vibration, and startle hinge on hypothesis testing in the context of regression models. For a variety of reasons, noise doses may be known only imprecisely and may not reflect the actual level experienced by responding subjects. These differences between true dose and estimated dose, be they systematic or random, constitute covariate measurement error. Available statistics literature speaks to the impacts of measurement error on regression models, both in terms of bias in estimated coefficients and predicted values, and in terms of the loss of statistical power for hypothesis testing. Given the particulars of a categorical annoyance response variable and a continuous noise dose predictor variable subject to measurement error during testing, the emphasis of this report is on findings and methods pertinent to generalized linear (and mixed) models likely to be employed during the Quesst mission community tests. We reach the following conclusions: 1. Of four reviewed methods, structural Bayesian measurement error models and simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) may be the most readily applicable to Quesst mission community noise study objectives. 2. If warranted, a linear measurement model can help model systematic sources of measurement error that the classical measurement error does not. 3. For its ready implementation and small additional input requirements, simulation extrapolation may be ideally suited for addressing secondary research questions involving interactions between annoyance, noise dose, and other factors through hypothesis testing. 4. For their flexibility and ability to propagate uncertainty, structural Bayesian hierarchical models have great appeal for mission purposes; some care may be needed in developing appropriate probability models describing actual noise exposure during testing. An annotated bibliography logs additional papers and resources that may be of value to analysts in other projects and disciplines.

Dose-Response Model↗

NASA NTRS2009

Combining Satellite Microwave Radiometer and Radar Observations to Estimate Atmospheric Latent Heating Profiles

In this study, satellite passive microwave sensor observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) are utilized to make estimates of latent + eddy sensible heating rates (Q1-QR) in regions of precipitation. The TMI heating algorithm (TRAIN) is calibrated, or "trained" using relatively accurate estimates of heating based upon spaceborne Precipitation Radar (PR) observations collocated with the TMI observations over a one-month period. The heating estimation technique is based upon a previously described Bayesian methodology, but with improvements in supporting cloud-resolving model simulations, an adjustment of precipitation echo tops to compensate for model biases, and a separate scaling of convective and stratiform heating components that leads to an approximate balance between estimated vertically-integrated condensation and surface precipitation. Estimates of Q1-QR from TMI compare favorably with the PR training estimates and show only modest sensitivity to the cloud-resolving model simulations of heating used to construct the training data. Moreover, the net condensation in the corresponding annual mean satellite latent heating profile is within a few percent of the annual mean surface precipitation rate over the tropical and subtropical oceans where the algorithm is applied. Comparisons of Q1 produced by combining TMI Q1-QR with independently derived estimates of QR show reasonable agreement with rawinsonde-based analyses of Q1 from two field campaigns, although the satellite estimates exhibit heating profile structure with sharper and more intense heating peaks than the rawinsonde estimates. 2

Grecu, Mircea↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Conceptual Approach to Assimilating Remote Sensing Data to Improve Soil Moisture Profile Estimates in a Surface Flux/Hydrology Model: Overview - Part 1

Knowledge of the amount of water in the soil is of great importance to many earth science disciplines. Soil moisture is a key variable in controlling the exchange of water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. Thus, soil moisture information is valuable in a wide range of applications including weather and climate, runoff potential and flood control, early warning of droughts, irrigation, crop yield forecasting, soil erosion, reservoir management, geotechnical engineering, and water quality. Despite the importance of soil moisture information, widespread and continuous measurements of soil moisture are not possible today. Although many earth surface conditions can be measured from satellites, we still cannot adequately measure soil moisture from space. Research in soil moisture remote sensing began in the mid 1970s shortly after the surge in satellite development. Recent advances in remote sensing have shown that soil moisture can be measured, at least qualitatively, by several methods. Quantitative measurements of moisture in the soil surface layer have been most successful using both passive and active microwave remote sensing, although complications arise from surface roughness and vegetation type and density. Early attempts to measure soil moisture from space-borne microwave instruments were hindered by what is now considered sub-optimal wavelengths (shorter than 5 cm) and the coarse spatial resolution of the measurements. L-band frequencies between 1 and 3 GHz (10-30 cm) have been deemed optimal for detection of soil moisture in the upper few centimeters of soil. The Electronically Steered Thinned Array Radiometer (ESTAR), an aircraft-based instrument operating a 1,4 GHz, has shown great promise for soil moisture determination. Initiatives are underway to develop a similar instrument for space. Existing space-borne synthetic aperture radars (SARS) operating at C- and L-band have also shown some potential to detect surface wetness. The advantage of radar is its much higher resolution than passive microwave systems, but it is currently hampered by surface roughness effects and the lack of a good algorithm based on a single frequency and single polarization. In addition, its repeat frequency is generally low (about 40 days). In the meantime, two new radiometers offer some hope for remote sensing of soil moisture from space. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), launched in November 1997, possesses a 10.65 GHz channel and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) on both the ADEOS-11 and Earth Observing System AM-1 platforms to be launched in 1999 possesses a 6.9 GHz channel. Aside from issues about interference from vegetation, the coarse resolution of these data will provide considerable challenges pertaining to their application. The resolution of TMI is about 45 km and that of AMSR is about 70 km. These resolutions are grossly inconsistent with the scale of soil moisture processes and the spatial variability of factors that control soil moisture. Scale disparities such as these are forcing us to rethink how we assimilate data of various scales in hydrologic models. Of particular interest is how to assimilate soil moisture data by reconciling the scale disparity between what we can expect from present and future remote sensing measurements of soil moisture and modeling soil moisture processes. It is because of this disparity between the resolution of space-based sensors and the scale of data needed for capturing the spatial variability of soil moisture and related properties that remote sensing of soil moisture has not met with more widespread success. Within a single footprint of current sensors at the wavelengths optimal for this application, in most cases there is enormous heterogeneity in soil moisture created by differences in landcover, soils and topography, as well as variability in antecedent precipitation. It is difficult to interpret the meaning of 'mean' soil moisture under such conditions and even more difficult to apply such a value. Because of the non-linear relationships between near-surface soil moisture and other variables of interest, such as surface energy fluxes and runoff, mean soil moisture has little applicability at such large scales. It is for these reasons that the use of remote sensing in conjunction with a hydrologic model appears to be of benefit in capturing the complete spatial and temporal structure of soil moisture. This paper is Part I of a four-part series describing a method for intermittently assimilating remotely-sensed soil moisture information to improve performance of a distributed land surface hydrology model. The method, summarized in section II, involves the following components, each of which is detailed in the indicated section of the paper or subsequent papers in this series: Forward radiative transfer model methods (section II and Part IV); Use of a Kalman filter to assimilate remotely-sensed soil moisture estimates with the model profile (section II and Part IV); Application of a soil hydrology model to capture the continuous evolution of the soil moisture profile within and below the root zone (section III); Statistical aggregation techniques (section IV and Part II); Disaggregation techniques using a neural network approach (section IV and Part III); and Maximum likelihood and Bayesian algorithms for inversely solving for the soil moisture profile in the upper few cm (Part IV).

Crosson, William L.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating the limitations of Bayesian metabolic control analysis

Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis (BMCA) is a promising framework for inferring metabolic control coefficients in data-limited scenarios, combining Bayesian inference with linear-logarithmic (lin-log) rate laws. These metabolic control coefficients quantify how changes in enzyme activities affect steady-state fluxes and metabolite concentrations across a metabolic network. However, its predictive accuracy and limitations remain underexplored. This study systematically evaluates BMCA’s ability to infer elasticity values, flux control coefficients (FCC), and concentration control coefficients (CCC) under varying data availability conditions using three synthetic metabolic network models. We demonstrate that BMCA predictions are highly dependent on the inclusion of flux and enzyme concentration data, with the omission of these datasets leading to severe inaccuracies. In our synthetic, enzyme-perturbation datasets, external metabolite concentrations had minimal impact and, in some cases, their exclusion improved predictions; when external-nutrient perturbations were introduced and those concentrations were observed, gains were at most modest. Additionally, we find that posterior estimation with both ADVI and HMC can underestimate large-magnitude elasticities in our synthetic settings, with ADVI showing somewhat higher variance under strong up-regulation; thus, recovering |elasticity| ≳ 1.5 remains challenging regardless of the inference engine. ADVI also fails to accurately infer allosteric interactions, even when regulatory effects are strong. While BMCA maintains reasonable accuracy in partially recovering the rankings of the highest FCC values, its estimates of absolute values remain constrained by prior assumptions and data limitations. Our findings reveal the BMCA algorithm’s strengths and weaknesses, providing guidance on its application in metabolic engineering, and highlighting the need for methodological refinements to enhance its predictive capabilities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Constructing the 'Best' Reliability Data for the Job - Developing Generic Reliability Data from Alternative Sources Early in a Product's Development Phase

Reliability practitioners advocate getting reliability involved early in a product development process. However, when assigned to estimate or assess the (potential) reliability of a product or system early in the design and development phase, they are faced with lack of reasonable models or methods for useful reliability estimation. Developing specific data is costly and time consuming. Instead, analysts rely on available data to assess reliability. Finding data relevant to the specific use and environment for any project is difficult, if not impossible. Instead, analysts attempt to develop the "best" or composite analog data to support the assessments. Industries, consortia and vendors across many areas have spent decades collecting, analyzing and tabulating fielded item and component reliability performance in terms of observed failures and operational use. This data resource provides a huge compendium of information for potential use, but can also be compartmented by industry, difficult to find out about, access, or manipulate. One method used incorporates processes for reviewing these existing data sources and identifying the available information based on similar equipment, then using that generic data to derive an analog composite. Dissimilarities in equipment descriptions, environment of intended use, quality and even failure modes impact the "best" data incorporated in an analog composite. Once developed, this composite analog data provides a "better" representation of the reliability of the equipment or component. It can be used to support early risk or reliability trade studies, or analytical models to establish the predicted reliability data points. It also establishes a baseline prior that may updated based on test data or observed operational constraints and failures, i.e., using Bayesian techniques. This tutorial presents a descriptive compilation of historical data sources across numerous industries and disciplines, along with examples of contents and data characteristics. It then presents methods for combining failure information from different sources and mathematical use of this data in early reliability estimation and analyses.

Kleinhammer, Roger K.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Intelligent Vehicle Health Management

As a part of the overall goal of developing Integrated Vehicle Health Management systems for aerospace vehicles, the NASA Faculty Fellowship Program (NFFP) at Marshall Space Flight Center has performed a pilot study on IVHM principals which integrates researched IVHM technologies in support of Integrated Intelligent Vehicle Management (IIVM). IVHM is the process of assessing, preserving, and restoring system functionality across flight and ground systems (NASA NGLT 2004). The framework presented in this paper integrates advanced computational techniques with sensor and communication technologies for spacecraft that can generate responses through detection, diagnosis, reasoning, and adapt to system faults in support of INM. These real-time responses allow the IIVM to modify the affected vehicle subsystem(s) prior to a catastrophic event. Furthermore, the objective of this pilot program is to develop and integrate technologies which can provide a continuous, intelligent, and adaptive health state of a vehicle and use this information to improve safety and reduce costs of operations. Recent investments in avionics, health management, and controls have been directed towards IIVM. As this concept has matured, it has become clear the INM requires the same sensors and processing capabilities as the real-time avionics functions to support diagnosis of subsystem problems. New sensors have been proposed, in addition, to augment the avionics sensors to support better system monitoring and diagnostics. As the designs have been considered, a synergy has been realized where the real-time avionics can utilize sensors proposed for diagnostics and prognostics to make better real-time decisions in response to detected failures. IIVM provides for a single system allowing modularity of functions and hardware across the vehicle. The framework that supports IIVM consists of 11 major on-board functions necessary to fully manage a space vehicle maintaining crew safety and mission objectives: Guidance and Navigation; Communications and Tracking; Vehicle Monitoring; Information Transport and Integration; Vehicle Diagnostics; Vehicle Prognostics; Vehicle mission Planning; Automated Repair and Replacement; Vehicle Control; Human Computer Interface; and Onboard Verification and Validation. Furthermore, the presented framework provides complete vehicle management which not only allows for increased crew safety and mission success through new intelligence capabilities, but also yields a mechanism for more efficient vehicle operations. The representative IVHM technologies for computer platform using heterogeneous communication, 3) coupled electromagnetic oscillators for enhanced communications, 4) Linux-based real-time systems, 5) genetic algorithms, 6) Bayesian Networks, 7) evolutionary algorithms, 8) dynamic systems control modeling, and 9) advanced sensing capabilities. This paper presents IVHM technologies developed under NASA's NFFP pilot project and the integration of these technologies forms the framework for IIVM.

Paris, Deidre E.↗

NASA NTRS2005

A Framework for Integration of IVHM Technologies for Intelligent Integration for Vehicle Management

As a part of the overall goal of developing Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) systems for aerospace vehicles, the NASA Faculty Fellowship Program (NFFP) at Marshall Space Flight Center has performed a pilot study on IVHM principals which integrates researched IVHM technologies in support of Integrated Intelligent Vehicle Management (IIVM). IVHM is the process of assessing, preserving, and restoring system functionality across flight and ground systems (NASA NGLT 2004). The framework presented in this paper integrates advanced computational techniques with sensor and communication technologies for spacecraft that can generate responses through detection, diagnosis, reasoning, and adapt to system faults in support of IIVM. These real-time responses allow the IIVM to modify the effected vehicle subsystem(s) prior to a catastrophic event. Furthermore, the objective of this pilot program is to develop and integrate technologies which can provide a continuous, intelligent, and adaptive health state of a vehicle and use this information to improve safety and reduce costs of operations. Recent investments in avionics, health management, and controls have been directed towards IIVM. As this concept has matured, it has become clear the IIVM requires the same sensors and processing capabilities as the real-time avionics functions to support diagnosis of subsystem problems. New sensors have been proposed, in addition, to augment the avionics sensors to support better system monitoring and diagnostics. As the designs have been considered, a synergy has been realized where the real-time avionics can utilize sensors proposed for diagnostics and prognostics to make better real-time decisions in response to detected failures. IIVM provides for a single system allowing modularity of functions and hardware across the vehicle. The framework that supports IIVM consists of 11 major on-board functions necessary to fully manage a space vehicle maintaining crew safety and mission objectives: Guidance and Navigation; Communications and Tracking; Vehicle Monitoring; Information Transport and Integration; Vehicle Diagnostics; Vehicle Prognostics; Vehicle mission Planning; Automated Repair and Replacement; Vehicle Control; Human Computer Interface; and Onboard Verification and Validation. Furthermore, the presented framework provides complete vehicle management which not only allows for increased crew safety and mission success through new intelligence capabilities, but also yields a mechanism for more efficient vehicle operations. The representative IVHM technologies for IIVH includes: 1) robust controllers for use in re-usable launch vehicles, 2) scaleable/flexible computer platform using heterogeneous communication, 3) coupled electromagnetic oscillators for enhanced communications, 4) Linux-based real-time systems, 5) genetic algorithms, 6) Bayesian Networks, 7) evolutionary algorithms, 8) dynamic systems control modeling, and 9) advanced sensing capabilities. This paper presents IVHM technologies developed under NASA's NFFP pilot project. The integration of these IVHM technologies forms the framework for IIVM.

Paris, Deidre E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multidisciplinary Design Optimization and Analysis of an Open Rotor Stage: Part 1

Successful design of open rotor propulsors requires effective analysis across multiple disciplines, including aerodynamics, acoustics, and structures. A viable design must not only be efficient but must also produce an acceptable level of noise and meet all static and dynamic structural requirements. For design and optimization, this is especially challenging because running high fidelity analyses is resource-intensive, and optimizing a design may require many thousands of cases to be analyzed. For this reason, the NASA team has applied design methodology that utilizes low-cost aerodynamic methods, machine learning models, and high-fidelity analyses when necessary. This includes standard two-dimensional methods such as throughflow analysis and quasi-3D blade-to-blade CFD, as well as some newly developed methods. Optimization using 3D CFD is necessary to maximize performance, and this is considered as well. All optimizations are carried out subject to structural constraints evaluated using finite element analysis. Doing this accurately requires a robust trunnion design, capable of pitching the blade between cruise and takeoff conditions while maintaining acceptable factor of safety. Hot to cold analysis must also be applied in order to correctly determine the as-manufactured shape. For acoustics, the unsteady pressures on the blade surfaces must be predicted, and this can be done either through full-annulus unsteady CFD or through a nonlinear harmonic method (NLH). NLH can run much faster, allowing some acoustic considerations to be made earlier in the design process. The design process is ongoing, and this presentation will review the current status and planned next steps. This part of the talk will focus on aerodynamic performance and be followed by a talk on structures and acoustics.

Design↗

NASA NTRS2010

Physics-Based Methods of Failure Analysis and Diagnostics in Human Space Flight

The Integrated Health Management (IHM) for the future aerospace systems requires to interface models of multiple subsystems in an efficient and accurate information environment at the earlier stages of system design. The complexity of modern aeronautic and aircraft systems (including e.g. the power distribution, flight control, solid and liquid motors) dictates employment of hybrid models and high-level reasoners for analysing mixed continuous and discrete information flow involving multiple modes of operation in uncertain environments, unknown state variables, heterogeneous software and hardware components. To provide the information link between key design/performance parameters and high-level reasoners we rely on development of multi-physics performance models, distributed sensors networks, and fault diagnostic and prognostic (FD&P) technologies in close collaboration with system designers. The main challenges of our research are related to the in-flight assessment of the structural stability, engine performance, and trajectory control. The main goal is to develop an intelligent IHM that not only enhances components and system reliability, but also provides a post-flight feedback helping to optimize design of the next generation of aerospace systems. Our efforts are concentrated on several directions of the research. One of the key components of our strategy is an innovative approach to the diagnostics/prognostics based on the real time dynamical inference (DI) technologies extended to encompass hybrid systems with hidden state trajectories. The major investments are into the multiphysics performance modelling that provides an access of the FD&P technologies to the main performance parameters of e.g. solid and liquid rocket motors and composite materials of the nozzle and case. Some of the recent results of our research are discussed in this chapter. We begin by introducing the problem of dynamical inference of stochastic nonlinear models and reviewing earlier results. Next, we present our analytical approach to the solution of this problem based on the path integral formulation. The resulting algorithm does not require an extensive global search for the model parameters, provides optimal compensation for the effects of dynamical noise, and is robust for a broad range of dynamical models. In the following Section the strengths of the algorithm are illustrated illustrated by inferring the parameters of the stochastic Lorenz system and comparing the results with those of earlier research. Next, we discuss a number of recent results in application to the development of the IHM for aerospace system. Firstly, we apply dynamical inference approach to a solution of classical three tank problems with mixed unknown continuous and binary parameters. The problem is considered in the context of ground support system for filling fuel tanks of liquid rocket motors. It is shown that the DI algorithm is well suited for successful solution of a hybrid version of this benchmark problem even in the presence of additional periodic and stochastic perturbation of unknown strength. Secondly, we illustrate our approach by its application to an analysis of the nozzle fault in a solid rocket motor (SRM). The internal ballistics of the SRM is modelled as a set of one-dimensional partial differential equations coupled to the dynamics of the propellant regression. In this example we are specifically focussed on the inference of discrete and continuous parameters of the nozzle blocking fault and on the possibility of an application of the DI algorithm to reducing the probability of "misses" of an on-board FD&P for SRM. In the next section re-contact problem caused by first stage/upper stage separation failure is discussed. The reaction forces imposed on the nozzle of the upper stage during the re-contact and their connection to the nozzle damage and to the thrust vector control (TVC) signal are obtained. It is shown that transient impact induced torquean be modelled as a response of an effective damped oscillator. A possible application of the DI algorithm to the inference of damage parameters and predicting fault dynamics ahead of time using the actuator signal is discussed. Finally, we formulate Bayesian inferential framework for development of the IHM system for in-flight structural health monitoring (SHM) of composite materials. We consider the signal generated by piezoelectric actuator mounted on composite structure generating elastic waves in it. The signal received by the sensor is than compared with the baseline signal. The possibility of damage inference is discussed in the context of development of the SHM.

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Influence of Coronal Abundance Variations

The PI of this project was Jeff Scargle of NASA/Ames. Co-I's were Alma Connors of Eureka Scientific/Wellesley, and myself. Part of the work was subcontracted to Eureka Scientific via SAO, with Vinay Kashyap as PI. This project was originally assigned grant number NCC2-1206, and was later changed to NCC2-1350 for administrative reasons. The goal of the project was to obtain, derive, and develop statistical and data analysis tools that would be of use in the analyses of high-resolution, high-sensitivity data that are becoming available with new instruments. This is envisioned as a cross-disciplinary effort with a number of "collaborators" including some at SA0 (Aneta Siemiginowska, Peter Freeman) and at the Harvard Statistics department (David van Dyk, Rostislav Protassov, Xiao-li Meng, Epaminondas Sourlas, et al). We have developed a new tool to reliably measure the metallicities of thermal plasma. It is unfeasible to obtain high-resolution grating spectra for most stars, and one must make the best possible determination based on lower-resolution, CCD-type spectra. It has been noticed that most analyses of such spectra have resulted in measured metallicities that were significantly lower than when compared with analyses of high- resolution grating data where available (see, e.g., Brickhouse et al., 2000, ApJ 530,387). Such results have led to the proposal of the existence of so-called Metal Abundance Deficient, or "MAD" stars (e.g., Drake, J.J., 1996, Cool Stars 9, ASP Conf.Ser. 109, 203). We however find that much of these analyses may be systematically underestimating the metallicities, and using a newly developed method to correctly treat the low-counts regime at the high-energy tail of the stellar spectra (van Dyk et al. 2001, ApJ 548,224), have found that the metallicities of these stars are generally comparable to their photospheric values. The results were reported at the AAS (Sourlas, Yu, van Dyk, Kashyap, and Drake, 2000, BAAS 196, v32, #54.02), and at the conference on Statistical Challenges in Modem Astronomy (Sourlas, van Dyk, Kashyap, Drake, and Pease, 2003, SCMA 111, Eds. E.D.Feigelson, G.J.Babu, New York:Springer, p489-490). We also described the limitations of one of the most egregiously misused and misapplied statistical tests in astrophysical literature, the F-test for verifying model components (Protassov, van Dyk, Connors, Kashyap, and Siemiginowska, 2002, ApJ, 571,545). Indeed, a search through the ApJ archives turned up 170 papers in the 5 previous years that used the F-test explicitly in some form or the other, and with the vast majority of them not using it correctly! Indeed, looking at just 4 issues of the ApJ in 2001, we found 13 instances of its use, of which nine were demonstrably incorrect. Clearly, it is difficult to understate the importance of this issue. We also worked on speeding up Bayes Blocks and Sparse Bayes Blocks algorithms to make them more tractable for large searches. We also supported staistics students and postdocs in both explicit physics- model-based (spectra with tens of thousands of atomic lines) and "model-free" -- i.e. non-parametric or semi-parametric -- algorithms. Work on using more of the latter is just beginning; while using multi-scale methods for Poisson imaging has come to hition. In fact, "An Image Restoration Technique with Error Estimates", by D. Esch, A. Connors, M. Karovska, and D. van Dyk, was published by ApJ (Esch et a1.2004, ApJ, 610, 1213). The code has been delivered to M. Karovska for CXC; and is available for beta-testing upon request. The other large project we worked on was on the self-consistent modeling of logN-logs curves in the Poisson limit. logN-logs curves are a fundamental tool in the study of source populations, luminosity functions, and cosmological parameters. However, their determination is hampered by statistical effects such as the Eddington bias, incompleteness due to detection efficiency, faint source flux fluctuations, etc. We have develed a new and powerful method using the full Poisson machinery that allows us to model the logN-logs distribution of X-ray sources in a self-consistent manner. Because we properly account for all the above statistical effects, our modeling is valid over the full range of the data, and not just for strong sources, as is normally done. Using a Bayesian approach and modeling the fluxes with known functional forms such as simple or broken power-laws, and conditioning the expected photon counts on the fluxes, the background contamination, effective area, detector vignetting, and detection probability, we can delve deeply into the low counts regime and extend the usefulness of medium sensitivity surveys such as ChAMP by orders of magnitude. The built-in flexibility of the algorithm also allows a simultaneous analysis of multiple datasets. We have applied this analysis to a set a Chandra observations (Sourlas, Kashyap, Zezas, van Dyk, 2004, HEAD #8, #16.32)

Scargle, Jeffrey D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Diagnostics: Chapter 8 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

This chapter presents the activity conducted by the ITPA topical group (TG) on Diagnostics over about the last 15 years. Following a general introduction of the ITER Diagnostics led by their measurement roles, the document is organized in several subchapters detailing the design support, research and development activity conducted by each of the specialist working groups (WGs) of the TG. Please note that the magnetic diagnostics were supported at the TG without a specific WG. Their status is included in the general introduction. In the following some highlights of the subchapter’s contents are provided. Recent advances in ITER first wall (FW) diagnostics for the measurements of plasma-metallic wall interaction in support of the ITER research plan are reported. An InfraRed imaging Video Bolometer for ITER has been developed and tested on several tokamaks to measure the radiated power loss. A laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique which utilizes a pulsed laser beam to ablate locally by forming a crater, will measure local tritium inventory in the FW material. Real-time Residual Gas Analyzers will measure the neutral gas composition in a divertor port and an equatorial port during plasma operation. Due to the full metallic FW environment, the plasma-wall interaction in ITER will face several challenges such as the compromised radiated power and divertor heat flux measurements by reflection. Ray tracing and analysis codes have been developed to eliminate and correct the effects of reflection in the measurements. The characteristics of the reflecting surfaces depending on the roughness and angle of the incidence have been measured by dedicated experiments, and the results were applied to the reflection elimination. For the measurement of the metallic impurity radiation induced by eroded metallic atoms, a vacuum ultraviolet spectrometer has been developed and tested. An extensive thermonuclear diagnostic suite will be required to support the operation of ITER and the planned experimental program for future burning plasma experiments. Due to the harsh environmental conditions, the implementation of diagnostic systems in ITER is a major challenge. These conditions include high levels of neutron and gamma fluxes, neutron heating, particle bombardment. Therefore, the selection and design of diagnostic systems must take into account a number of phenomena previously unseen in diagnostic design. For this reason, the measurement of neutrons and confined or lost fast ions, with particular emphasis on alpha particles, is critical to ITER. The diagnostics associated with these measurements will be important for future plasma-burning experiments at ITER. The high neutron emission and very large plasma size in ITER make neutron diagnostics the main diagnostic method used to measure plasma parameters such as fusion power, fusion power density, ion temperature, energy of fast ions and their spatial distributions in the plasma core. Active spectroscopy techniques are methods where a neutral particle beam is injected into the plasma and information on plasma parameters is extracted from the measurement of line emission resulting from the beam-plasma interaction, either by plasma ions or by beam atoms. Spatial localization is achieved by crossing the beamline and multiple observation lines. The ITER plasma will be a high temperature, moderately dense, fully ionized collisional plasma. The plasma facing surfaces are principally metallic being fashioned from beryllium or tungsten but many other elements, arising from either structural or from operational needs, may enter this plasma. The energy range of the emitted photons range from meV (infra-red) to multi keV (x-rays) and originate from all areas of the plasma volume. The primary role of passive emission diagnostics is to identify what is in the plasma from spectral signatures. Extracting quantitative information from these measurements such as impurity content, ion temperature, rotation, degree of detachment and radiated power depends on calibrated instruments, a physics model of the atomic and molecular processes and plasma transport and an analysis workflow that takes into account environmental effects such as reflections. The particular needs for ITER have prompted a multi-machine, many-year effort to address all these aspects and this chapter reviews the work on diagnostic design, experiments and new analysis techniques. An overview of the laser diagnostics to be implemented on ITER is also provided in this paper. This includes descriptions of the Thomson scattering in the core, edge and divertor regions, polarimetry and interferometry diagnostics used for measuring plasma density and also measurements of helium density in the divertor using Laser Induced Flourescence. Techniques which can allow improvements on current measurements are also addressed in particular expanding poloidal polarimetry measurements to measure field fluctuations and proposed use of dispersion interferometery which has a number of advantages over existing methods. This paper identifies particular areas where further research and testing on existing tokamaks is useful even at this advanced stage to inform the design of diagnostics for ITER. Outstanding areas of concern for the implementation of laser diagnostics, in particular with a view to reliable operation are identified. An overview of the latest developments of microwave diagnostic systems and techniques is given. The primary focus is the contributions for ITER—the next step burning plasma experiment—which is supplemented by describing recent progress of techniques applicable for fusion experiments beyond ITER. The contributions are intentionally kept concise, and are being supplemented by a rich list of references for further studies. Radiation induced effects are receiving continuous and well-deserved attention of the ITER diagnostic community and they are in many cases one of the primary design drivers of the ITER diagnostic systems. The paper summarizes recent progress in this area focusing primarily on the ITER diagnostics but in some cases provides also outlook for the possible solutions for even more demanding radiation environment of fusion reactors beyond ITER. Despite advancements in the area of modeling and simulation of various radiation induced effects, experimental testing in a nuclear environment as close as possible to the target one is still seen as unavoidable for proper qualification of particular diagnostic functional elements. Recent advancement within three diagnostic areas: optical diagnostics, magnetics and bolometers is covered. Encouraging results on qualification of silica glass vacuum window assemblies are presented. In the area of magnetic sensors, progress of irradiation tests performed on ITER in-vessel LTCC inductive sensors is presented with outlook for novel technological approaches to inductive sensors utilizing thick printing and photolithography technologies being highlighted. Summary of advancements in the area of steady state magnetic field sensors based on Hall effect is given. New results of neutron irradiation test of the ITER borosilicate glass inserts for vacuum electrical feedthroughs are summarized finding negligible swelling at target level of neutron fluence. Off-line irradiation tests of fiber optic current sensors for plasma current measurement demonstrated that both for gamma doses up to 5 MGy and a total neutron fluence up to 10 15 cm −2 , radiation induced changes are still compatible with required measurement accuracy on ITER. The ITER bolometers are given as an example how considering radiation effects may influence the diagnostic design. Finally, outlook for future main R&D directions is outlined. All optical and laser-based diagnostics in ITER will be using mirrors to guide plasma radiation toward detectors, cameras and sensors. In the hostile plasma, radiation and particle environment the optical characteristics of diagnostic mirrors will degrade directly affecting the entire performance of involved diagnostic systems. An assessment of factors affecting mirror performance is provided. Among the prime adverse factors are deposition of plasma impurities, sputtering of mirror surface and steam ingress in the vicinity of mirrors. Within the International Tokamak Physics Activity with active support by ITER central team and domestic agencies, the structured research and development (R&D) program on mitigation of risks for diagnostic mirrors is underway. Within this program the mirror material development, the passive mitigation of mirror degradation by using diagnostic ducts and shutters along with an active mirror recovery program comprising the in-situ mirror cleaning and calibration is underway. Recent developments in diagnostic mirror R&D are described in this Chapter along with an example of their implementation of R&D solutions in ITER Infrared Thermography diagnostic. An assessment of still open engineering and physics questions, considerations on mirror risks during an early phase of ITER operation are given along with an overview of diagnostic mirror evolution in the late ITER operation stage toward the demonstration fusion power plant. Several crucial areas of diagnostic R&D outlined in ITER Research Plan are addressed. The basic control groups in a fusion reactor can be broken-down in five categories: (1) plasma position, magnetic configuration, and plasma current control, (2) profile control and confinement optimization, (3) MHD control and suppression, (4) edge dissipation control, radiation and plasma exhaust control and (5) break-down optimization. These categories are coupled via the physics (a control action in one domain will affect the other domains) and via shared actuators (e.g. ECRH for impurity accumulation avoidance, current density distribution control and MHD suppression). Consequently, a supervisory control system should determine the priority of the various control tasks, their couplings, and the interfaces with the safety and interlock system. For the systematic development of the various controllers taking the complexity of the plasma and the control system into account, a model-based approach is required. A short historical overview is given of the developments in systems and control theory and control engineering with special emphasis on those developments that are most relevant for Nuclear Fusion research and operation. An overview is given of the state of the field of fusion plasma control for the control categories. It will be shown how synthetic diagnostics are being developed in ITER and how they are used in diagnostic design and design validation and how they can be in model-based controller synthesis using relatively simple models. In modern control methods, multiple diagnostics are used to constrain relatively simple models. The constrained models provide an estimate for the state. This opens the route to state controllers, such as model predictive control. A major challenge in nuclear fusion research is the coherent combination of data from heterogeneous diagnostics and modeling codes for machine control and safety as well as physics studies. Measured data from different diagnostics often provide information about the same subset of physical parameters. Additionally, information provided by some diagnostics might be needed for the analysis of other diagnostics. A joint analysis of complementary and redundant data allows, e.g. to improve the reliability of parameter estimation, to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of profiles, to obtain synergistic effects, to consider diagnostics interdependencies and to find and resolve data inconsistencies. Physics-based modeling and parameter relationships provide additional information improving the treatment of ill-posed inversion problems. A coherent combination of all kind of available information within a probabilistic framework allows for improved data analysis results. The concept of integrated data analysis (IDA) in the framework of Bayesian probability theory is outlined and contrasted with conventional data analysis. Components of the probabilistic approach are summarized and specific ingredients beneficial for data analysis at fusion devices are discussed.

ITER↗