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DOE OSTI2024

Provincial-scale assessment of direct air capture to meet China’s climate neutrality goal under limited bioenergy supply

China has large, estimated potential for direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) but its deployment locations and impacts at the subnational scale remain unclear. This is largely because higher spatial resolution studies on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in China have focused mainly on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. This study uses a spatially detailed integrated energy-economy-climate model to evaluate DACCS for 31 provinces in China as the country pursues its goal of climate neutrality by 2060. We find that DACCS could expand China’s negative emissions capacity, particularly under sustainability-minded limits on bioenergy supply that are informed by bottom-up studies. But providing low-carbon electricity for multiple GtCO 2 yr -1 DACCS may require over 600 GW of additional wind and solar capacity nationwide and comprise up to 30% of electricity demand in China’s northern provinces. Investment requirements for DACCS range from 330 to 530 billion dollars by 2060 but could be repaid manyfold in the form of avoided mitigation costs, which DACCS deployment could reduce by up to $6 trillion over the same period. Enhanced efforts to lower residual CO 2 emissions that must be offset with CDR under a net-zero paradigm reduce but do not eliminate the use of DACCS for mitigation. For decision-makers and the energy-economy models guiding them, our results highlight the value of expanding beyond the current reliance on biomass for negative emissions in China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improved net carbon budgets in the US Midwest through direct measured impacts of enhanced weathering

Abstract Terrestrial enhanced weathering (EW) through the application of Mg‐ or Ca‐rich rock dust to soil is a negative emission technology with the potential to address impacts of climate change. The effectiveness of EW was tested over 4 years by spreading ground basalt (50 t ha −1 year −1 ) on maize/soybean and miscanthus cropping systems in the Midwest US. The major elements of the carbon budget were quantified through measurements of eddy covariance, soil carbon flux, and biomass. The movement of Mg and Ca to deep soil, released by weathering, balanced by a corresponding alkalinity flux, was used to measure the drawdown of CO 2 , where the release of cations from basalt was measured as the ratio of rare earth elements to base cations in the applied rock dust and in the surface soil. Basalt application stimulated peak biomass and net primary production in both cropping systems and caused a small but significant stimulation of soil respiration. Net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was strongly negative for maize/soybean (−199 to −453 g C m −2 year −1 ) indicating this system was losing carbon to the atmosphere. Average EW (102 g C m −2 year −1 ) offset carbon loss in the maize/soybean by 23%–42%. NECB of miscanthus was positive (63–129 g C m −2 year −1 ), indicating carbon gain in the system, and EW greatly increased inorganic carbon storage by an additional 234 g C m −2 year −1 . Our analysis indicates a co‐deployment of a perennial biofuel crop (miscanthus) with EW leads to major wins—increased harvested yields of 29%–42% with additional carbon dioxide removal (CDR) of 8.6 t CO 2 ha −1 year −1 . EW applied to maize/soybean drives a CDR of 3.7 t CO 2 ha −1 year −1 , which partially offsets well‐established carbon losses from soil from this crop rotation. EW applied in the US Midwest creates measurable improvements to the carbon budgets perennial bioenergy crops and conventional row crops.

enhanced weathering↗

DOE OSTI2020

1st MPEX Users Research Forum (MURF) summary report: specifications for the Surface Analysis Station (SAS)

The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) Team has reached out to the community of potential users of the MPEX facility to assess the high-priority capabilities which should be considered for inclusion in the design of the MPEX Surface Analysis Station (SAS). This activity is being carried out during the “advanced conceptual design” period of MPEX, i.e. post Conceptual Design Review (CDR) but prior to Preliminary Design (PD), to respond to a recommendation by the U.S. D.O.E. following the CDR. The MPEX Team will summarize the community recommendations into a guidance document (i.e. this report), which will influence the Surface Analysis Station during the Preliminary Design phase of the project.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

2021 Summer Resource Adequacy in the ERCOT Region

This report is an update to the NETL report on the same topic that examined the potential system performance of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system during the summer of 2020. Anticipated reserve margins in ERCOT have risen year-over-year from the 10.7 percent reported in ERCOT’s Final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for Summer 2020 to 15.7 percent for Summer 2021 in ERCOT’s Capacity, Demand and Reserves [CDR] report published in December 2020 and 2021 Summer Preliminary SARA published in March 2021. Using data from ERCOT’s 2021 Summer SARA, CDR, and historical performance data, six economic dispatch scenarios using PROMOD were developed to assess the risk to ERCOT of a load shedding event for Summer 2021. The results suggest that ERCOT could make it through the summer season without a loss of load event, as long as the weather remains normal. However, through a combination of scenarios, including increased demand, increased forced outages, and low wind output, ERCOT is likely to find itself operating in emergency conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Initial Considerations for Large-Scale Carbon Removal in the United States

The Biden Administration has established a goal of removing 1 Gt carbon dioxide equivalents per year (CO 2e /yr) from the atmosphere and of achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2050. Our team of leading academic and DOE national laboratory experts is conducting the first economy-wide technical evaluation of the options for achieving this carbon dioxide removal (CDR) goal. The net zero goal includes targets of 100% clean electricity by 2035 with 40% GHG emissions reductions by 2030, which helps set primary scenario boundaries for our analysis of the CDR supply curve. Our analysis will evaluate feasibility, performance, and costs on a county level for the entire USA (including AK and HI where possible), considering all removal methods that are currently well-enough developed for us to estimate the likely costs in 2050. We anticipate that more than 1 Gt CO 2e of removal will be available to the Nation. We will identify how much of each CO 2 removal approach is available in specific regions of the Nation and provide cumulative costs and volumes (a supply curve) by region for 2050. We expect to complete this detailed analysis by late 2023.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Abstract for CRADA between NETL and Eion Corp (AGMT-1287)

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and Eion Carbon (Participant) will collaborate in the development of critical metals (CM) extraction from mafic feedstocks prior to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal (CDR) strategies. Mafic/ultramafic feedstocks may provide a source of energy relevant CM (e.g. Co, Cu, Ni, REE) in addition to reducing atmospheric CO 2 through enhanced weathering and subsequent ocean alkalinity enhancement. This research will identify candidate feedstocks with salable CM and methods for CM extraction as value added byproducts for the principal intended use of these alkaline feedstocks by Eion as a permanent CDR approach on farmland.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Initial Systems-Level Assessment of a Distributed Direct Air Capture System Concept at the Urban-scale (UrbanDAC)

Direct Air Capture (DAC) systems offer a promising solution for mitigating global carbon emissions by directly removing ambient carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere. While future DAC facilities are typically envisioned as being large and centralized, small-scale systems present an alternative approach with advantages such as adaptability and lower uptake costs. By harnessing waste heat from the built environment, such small-scale systems become distributed DAC at the urban scale (UrbanDAC) that benefit from existing urban infrastructure, while presenting challenges such as identifying eligible buildings and sustainable transportation and storage of captured CO 2 . Collaborating with engineering experts and developers of a DAC unit that can be co-located with cooling towers of existing commercial buildings, this study explores the systems-level implications of UrbanDAC using a geographically explicit multi-decision criteria analysis (MCDA) framework. By considering various infrastructure and environmental factors, network analysis and geospatial techniques are applied to identify optimal building candidates for distributed DAC units within Knoxville, Tennessee, USA, as a representative mid-size city. The selected outputs of the MCDA are used to explore a scenario that assumes a CO 2 collection and transport route for 20 high-ranking candidate buildings; total carbon emissions, EV energy consumption, and net carbon dioxide removal (CDR) are then calculated. Results suggest that the spatial variation of optimal candidates between thriving commercial areas is an important planning consideration. Examining the feasibility of UrbanDAC at an urban planning level provides valuable insights into the barriers and enabling conditions for CDR in cities, where the vast majority of CO 2 emissions are produced, and supports decision-making processes for the implementation of decarbonization initiatives. Through this initial assessment, this research acts as a pilot study for an emerging technology that highlights the importance of distributed DAC technologies in addressing climate change and emphasizes the need for further research and exploration in this domain.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Abstract for CRADA between National Energy Technology Laboratory and Carbon To Stone, Inc.

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and Carbon To Stone (CTS), Inc. (Participant) will collaborate on a techno-economic assessment (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) of CTS’s carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technology under an awarded project from the Department of Energy’s Direct Air Capture Pre-Commercialization Technology Prize. CTS has developed a technological platform that captures carbon dioxide (CO2) from air and mineralizes it into durable carbonates using alkaline industrial residues such as steel slag and mine tailings. In addition, CTS’s technology uses electrochemistry to recover value-added energy critical metals (ECMs) from these residues. NETL has expertise in CDR TEA and LCA development. The collaboration between CTS and NETL aims to quantify the performance, cost and lifecycle impacts of CTS’s technology and produce LCA and TEA models that can accelerate development and deployment of this technology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal (mCDR) Centers of Excellence

A diverse portfolio of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies will be essential to meeting climate goals while supporting sustainable development. In particular, marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) methods can help diversify the existing portfolio, which currently relies heavily on engineered direct air capture systems for large-scale atmospheric removals. To fulfill their potential in the CDR ecosystem, these early-stage mCDR technologies require additional research and development. Here, we propose regional mCDR Technology Centers of Excellence that will provide inventors and developers with access to right-scale facilities and engineering expertise that will meet their needs wherever they are on the journey from bench- to pilot-scale development. To support innovation across the technological readiness level spectrum, these Centers will provide collaborative access to ocean-based mCDR testing sites; other opportunities for partnering with multidisciplinary experts in technology development and commercialization; provide meaningful pathways for integrated engagement with local industrial and regulatory systems; and help in developing tailored, impactful community benefit models. Ideal sites are co-located in areas with a favorable natural environment for testing mCDR, well studied baselines, accessible infrastructure for multidisciplinary marine research, and technology commercialization support. As a case study, we offer the Pacific Northwest as particularly suitable for a regional mCDR Technology Center of Excellence given existing and potential growth of all the characteristics of ideal sites listed above, and which could especially benefit from the region’s growing marine climate technology sector. Last, we offer a brief whole-of-government perspective for supporting and regulating these Centers of Excellence, including identification of mCDR Science Centers of Excellence to ensure that the development of mCDR technologies dovetails with much-needed advancements in oceanographic observation and simulation infrastructure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Carbon Dioxide Removal Systems Analysis

This presentation was prepared for the 2024 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting. The slides summerize recent NETL systems analysis work examining carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. Specifically, the slides present preliminary results from an update to NETL’s 2022 “Direct Air Capture Case Studies: Sorbent System” report and screening level techno-economic analyses (TEA) and life cycle assessments (LCA) of enhanced rock weathering and marine CDR technologies. Other completed, ongoing, and upcoming NETL TEA, LCA and markets analysis work are also highlighted.

Homsy, Sally↗

DOE OSTI2024

Can Error Mitigation Improve Trainability of Noisy Variational Quantum Algorithms?

Variational Quantum Algorithms (VQAs) are often viewed as the best hope for near-term quantum advantage. However, recent studies have shown that noise can severely limit the trainability of VQAs, e.g., by exponentially flattening the cost landscape and suppressing the magnitudes of cost gradients. Error Mitigation (EM) shows promise in reducing the impact of noise on near-term devices. Thus, it is natural to ask whether EM can improve the trainability of VQAs. In this work, we first show that, for a broad class of EM strategies, exponential cost concentration cannot be resolved without committing exponential resources elsewhere. This class of strategies includes as special cases Zero Noise Extrapolation, Virtual Distillation, Probabilistic Error Cancellation, and Clifford Data Regression. Second, we perform analytical and numerical analysis of these EM protocols, and we find that some of them (e.g., Virtual Distillation) can make it harder to resolve cost function values compared to running no EM at all. As a positive result, we do find numerical evidence that Clifford Data Regression (CDR) can aid the training process in certain settings where cost concentration is not too severe. Our results show that care should be taken in applying EM protocols as they can either worsen or not improve trainability. On the other hand, our positive results for CDR highlight the possibility of engineering error mitigation methods to improve trainability.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving the efficiency of learning-based error mitigation

Error mitigation will play an important role in practical applications of near-term noisy quantum computers. Current error mitigation methods typically concentrate on correction quality at the expense of frugality (as measured by the number of additional calls to quantum hardware). To fill the need for highly accurate, yet inexpensive techniques, we introduce an error mitigation scheme that builds on Clifford data regression (CDR). The scheme improves the frugality by carefully choosing the training data and exploiting the symmetries of the problem. We test our approach by correcting long range correlators of the ground state of XY Hamiltonian on IBM Toronto quantum computer. We find that our method is an order of magnitude cheaper while maintaining the same accuracy as the original CDR approach. The efficiency gain enables us to obtain a factor of 10 improvement on the unmitigated results with the total budget as small as 2 ⋅ 10 5 shots. Furthermore, we demonstrate orders of magnitude improvements in frugality for mitigation of energy of the LiH ground state simulated with IBM's Ourense-derived noise model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

The molecular basis of the neutralization breadth of the RBD-specific antibody CoV11

SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind the COVID-19 pandemic, has changed over time to the extent that the current virus is substantially different from what originally led to the pandemic in 2019–2020. Viral variants have modified the severity and transmissibility of the disease and continue do so. How much of this change is due to viral fitness versus a response to immune pressure is hard to define. One class of antibodies that continues to afford some level of protection from emerging variants are those that closely overlap the binding site for angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) on the receptor binding domain (RBD). Some members of this class that were identified early in the course of the pandemic arose from the VH 3-53 germline gene (IGHV3-53*01) and had short heavy chain complementarity-determining region 3s (CDR H3s). Here, we describe the molecular basis of the SARS-CoV-2 RBD recognition by the anti-RBD monoclonal antibody CoV11 isolated early in the COVID-19 pandemic and show how its unique mode of binding the RBD determines its neutralization breadth. CoV11 utilizes a heavy chain VH 3-53 and a light chain VK 3-20 germline sequence to bind to the RBD. Two of CoV11’s four heavy chain changes from the VH 3-53 germline sequence, $Thr^{28}_{FWRH1}$ to Ile and $Ser^{31}_{CDRH1}$ to Arg, and some unique features in its CDR H3 increase its affinity to the RBD, while the four light chain changes from the VK 3-20 germline sequence sit outside of the RBD binding site. Antibodies of this type can retain significant affinity and neutralization potency against variants of concern (VOCs) that have diverged significantly from original virus lineage such as the prevalent omicron variant. We also discuss the mechanism by which VH 3-53 encoded antibodies recognize spike antigen and show how minimal changes to their sequence, their choice of light chain, and their mode of binding influence their affinity and impact their neutralization breadth.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anti-idiotype isolation of a broad and potent influenza A virus-neutralizing human antibody

The VH6-1 class of antibodies includes some of the broadest and most potent antibodies that neutralize influenza A virus. Here, we elicit and isolate anti-idiotype antibodies against germline versions of VH6-1 antibodies, use these to sort human leukocytes, and isolate a new VH6-1-class member, antibody L5A7, which potently neutralized diverse group 1 and group 2 influenza A strains. While its heavy chain derived from the canonical IGHV6-1 heavy chain gene used by the class, L5A7 utilized a light chain gene, IGKV1-9, which had not been previously observed in other VH6-1-class antibodies. The cryo-EM structure of L5A7 in complex with Indonesia 2005 hemagglutinin revealed a nearly identical binding mode to other VH6-1-class members. The structure of L5A7 bound to the isolating anti-idiotype antibody, 28H6E11, revealed a shared surface for binding anti-idiotype and hemagglutinin that included two critical L5A7 regions: an FG motif in the third heavy chain-complementary determining region (CDR H3) and the CDR L1 loop. Surprisingly, the chemistries of L5A7 interactions with hemagglutinin and with anti-idiotype were substantially different. Overall, we demonstrate anti-idiotype-based isolation of a broad and potent influenza A virus-neutralizing antibody, revealing that anti-idiotypic selection of antibodies can involve features other than chemical mimicry of the target antigen.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tensor Network Space-Time Spectral Collocation Method for Time-Dependent Convection-Diffusion-Reaction Equations

Emerging tensor network techniques for solutions of partial differential equations (PDEs), known for their ability to break the curse of dimensionality, deliver new mathematical methods for ultra-fast numerical solutions of high-dimensional problems. Here, we introduce a Tensor Train (TT) Chebyshev spectral collocation method, in both space and time, for the solution of the time-dependent convection-diffusion-reaction (CDR) equation with inhomogeneous boundary conditions, in Cartesian geometry. Previous methods for numerical solution of time-dependent PDEs often used finite difference for time, and a spectral scheme for the spatial dimensions, which led to a slow linear convergence. Spectral collocation space-time methods show exponential convergence; however, for realistic problems they need to solve large four-dimensional systems. We overcome this difficulty by using a TT approach, as its complexity only grows linearly with the number of dimensions. We show that our TT space-time Chebyshev spectral collocation method converges exponentially, when the solution of the CDR is smooth, and demonstrate that it leads to a very high compression of linear operators from terabytes to kilobytes in TT-format, and a speedup of tens of thousands of times when compared to a full-grid space-time spectral method. These advantages allow us to obtain the solutions at much higher resolutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Global and regional hydrological impacts of global forest expansion

Abstract. Large-scale reforestation, afforestation, and forest restoration schemes have gained global support as climate change mitigation strategies due to their significant carbon dioxide removal (CDR) potential. However, there has been limited research into the unintended consequences of forestation from a biophysical perspective. In the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), we apply a global forestation scenario, within a Paris Agreement-compatible warming scenario, to investigate the land surface and hydroclimate response. Compared to a control scenario where land use is fixed to present-day levels, the forestation scenario is up to 2 °C cooler at low latitudes by 2100, driven by a 10 % increase in evaporative cooling in forested areas. However, afforested areas where grassland or shrubland are replaced lead to a doubling of plant water demand in some tropical regions, causing significant decreases in soil moisture (∼ 5 % globally, 5 %–10 % regionally) and water availability (∼ 10 % globally, 10 %–15 % regionally) in regions with increased forest cover. While there are some increases in low cloud and seasonal precipitation over the expanded tropical forests, with enhanced negative cloud radiative forcing, the impacts on large-scale precipitation and atmospheric circulation are limited. This contrasts with the precipitation response to simulated large-scale deforestation found in previous studies. The forestation scenario demonstrates local cooling benefits without major disruption to global hydrodynamics beyond those already projected to result from climate change, in addition to the cooling associated with CDR. However, the water demands of extensive forestation, especially afforestation, have implications for its viability, given the uncertainty in future precipitation changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2023

Techno Economic Analysis Development for Enhanced Weathering and Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal

Enhanced weathering and marine carbon dioxide removal (CDR) are emerging technologies that can aid in the direct removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. This poster presents on NETL’s active (ongoing) work on the techno-economic analysis (TEA) of enhanced weathering and marine CDR. Financial assumptions will be common with already released Direct Air Capture Case Studies

Leptinsky, Sarah↗

DOE OSTI2022

Process Modeling and Optimization of DAC Systems and Novel Sorbent Materials

This poster presents an overview of the general methodology to be implemented in Task 9.0, Advanced Modeling Support of CDR Pilot Projects, of the Carbon Dioxide Removal program (CDR FWP22). Specifically, the poster presents the multi-scale modelling framework and optimization approaches to develop DAC systems, and how this can support bench/pilot scale tests that improve data collection and minimize uncertainty for scale-up of DAC technologies.

Caballero, Daison↗