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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Environmental impact of national and subnational carbon policies in China based on a multi-regional dynamic CGE model

Carbon policies are important not only for mitigating global climate change, but also for controlling local and regional air pollution. The large regional disparities in economic development and air pollution across China calls for regionally differentiated policies. Previous studies have not systematically investigated the environmental impacts of regional carbon policies in China covering different spatial scales. This study constructs a multi-regional dynamic computable general quilibrium (CGE) model covering 30 provinces of China to assess the impacts of national and subnational carbon polices on CO2 emissions and co-emitted air pollutants from 2020 to 2050. We consider one national carbon policy which aims to achieve China’s 2030 national CO2 abatement target, as well as three regional policies with the same policy stringency as the national one but only applied to eastern China (EP), the Jiangsu-Shanghai-Zhejiang area (JSZP), and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area (BTHP), respectively. We find that regional policies (EP, JSZP, and BTHP) are as effective in reducing CO2 emissions in their targeted regions as the national policy. However, they lead to an increase in CO2 emissions in untargeted regions (the so-called “emissions leakage”). The CO2 leakage rates, which depend on the policy spatial coverage, are 4%, 13%, and 65% for EP, JSZP, and BTHP, respectively, in 2050. Compared with CO2, changes in air pollutant emissions, including sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOC), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), exhibit a similar pattern under all policy scenarios, but the magnitude of change is significantly smaller. Transportation, thermal power, and some energy intensive industries are the three largest contributors to CO2 and air pollutant emission reductions. Our results suggest that regional carbon policy is effective in reducing CO2 and air pollutant emissions in the targeted regions, and extending the spatial coverage or increasing policy stringency can largely inhibit emissions leakage.

Zhang, Wenwen↗
DOE OSTI2026

Strategizing emission cuts in China to mitigate short-term warming from clean air policies

Aerosol-cloud interactions remain one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimates of anthropogenic climate forcing. Reducing aerosols to achieve air quality improvement and climate goals can cause unintended warming due to the weakening of aerosol cooling. Here we investigate the climate impacts of spatially optimized sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emission reduction under a carbon-neutral pathway in China. We find that targeting reduction in highly polluted regions in China significantly suppresses the rise in effective radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions (ERF aci ) during 2020–2060. Owing to the nonlinear aerosol-cloud interaction, the optimized emission reduction strategy limits the regional average increase in ERF aci of more than 0.89 W m −2 to less than 0.13 W m −2 in the short-term future during 2020–2040 and weakens the ERF aci increase by two-thirds in 2060 over China. These findings demonstrate the critical role of targeted emission control in mitigating short-term climate risks while pursuing air quality goals.

Zhu, Yitong [Nanjing Univ. of Information Science ↗
DOE OSTI2022

The substantial role of May soil temperature over Central Asia for summer surface air temperature variation and prediction over Northeastern China

The slowly varying soil temperature can exert local and nonlocal influences on regional climate system, and may thus provide a critical source of subseasonal-to-seasonal climate prediction. In this study, we identify that soil temperature in May over the key region of Central Asia (42 °N–50 °N, 62 °E–80 °E, KRCA) from Noah, Mosaic, CLM and ERA-interim datasets is closely linked to variations of the surface air temperature, daily maximum temperature and hot days over Northeastern China in summer (June-July-August), with correlation coefficients of regional average detrended time series ranging from 0.42 to 0.54, and all significant at the 99% confidence level for the period of 1979-2018. The possible physical mechanism behind the substantial downstream impacts of soil temperature over Central Asia are explored via diagnostical analysis combined with regional climate model experiments. Warmer soil temperature in May over the KRCA tends to cause positive anomalies of geopotential height in summer over Northeastern China through the Rossby wave propagation, and associated stronger subsidence warming, less cloud cover, more solar radiation reaching the surface, higher planetary boundary layer, and stronger thermal advection at 850 hPa, which provide favorable conditions for warmer surface air temperature particularly in the daytime as well as more hot days. Here this study further reveals that soil temperature over Central Asia in May makes important contribution to prediction of summer surface air temperature, daily maximum temperature and hot days over Northeastern China in terms of regional average time series and spatial patterns. Our findings highlight the previously-unknown substantial role of antecedent soil temperature condition over Central Asia for summer surface air temperature variation and prediction over Northeastern China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the relationship between eastern China aerosols and western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity

How aerosols affect the weather and climate system has received increasing attention. This study finds a significant negative correlation between March–May eastern China aerosol optical depth (AOD) and July–November western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) frequency during 2003–2020. This time period spans when several aerosol reanalyses are available and both Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer AOD retrievals are assimilated therein. Composite analyses and budget analyses of dynamical genesis potential indices indicate the importance of large-scale environmental factors, especially vertical velocity and vertical wind shear, associated with changes in AOD that in turn modulate changes in WNP TC frequency. Increased eastern China AOD may facilitate negative Pacific meridional mode development via modulation of the westerly jet, which then forces an anticyclonic circulation over the WNP basin. Increased AOD can also directly decrease the inter-hemispheric temperature differential and increases the intra-hemispheric temperature differential between the equator and the mid-latitudes, thus weakening ascending motion and enhancing vertical wind shear over the WNP, especially the southeastern portion of the basin. Further, all of these large-scale environment changes induced by increased eastern China AOD tend to suppress WNP TCs. This study highlights the potential influence of eastern China aerosol loadings on WNP TCs, thus improving our understanding of TC climate variability over the WNP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Health and Climate Benefits of Economic Dispatch in China’s Power System

China’s power system is highly regulated and uses an “equal-share” dispatch approach. However, market mechanisms are being introduced to reduce generation costs and improve system reliability. Here, we quantify the climate and human health impacts brought about by this transition, modeling China’s power system operations under economic dispatch. We find that significant reductions in mortality related to air pollution (11%) and CO 2 emissions (3%) from the power sector can be attained by economic dispatch, relative to the equal-share approach, through more efficient coal-powered generation. Additional health and climate benefits can be achieved by incorporating emission externalities in electricity generation costs. However, the benefits of the transition to economic dispatch will be unevenly distributed across China and may lead to increased health damage in some regions. Our results show the potential of dispatch decision-making in electricity generation to mitigate the negative impacts of power plant emissions with existing facilities in China.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Winter Warming in North America Induced by Urbanization in China

Rapid urbanization in China in the past several decades has been shown to affect surface air temperature (SAT) locally, but its global impact is unclear. Using a global climate model, we have investigated the potential impact of urbanization in China on SAT at the global scale. The expansion of urban areas in China from 1985 to 2017 leads to winter surface air warming by as much as 0.8°C in North America (NA), largely caused by warm temperature advection due to global-scale atmospheric circulation changes. The East Asian jet stream moves northward in eastern and northeastern China where the expansion of urban areas has increased SAT and sensible heat flux, forcing change of the atmospheric stationary waves and so the structure of the jet streams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Forest Soil Carbon Efflux Evaluation Across China: A New Estimate With Machine Learning

Forest soil respiration (Rs) plays an important role in the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. China's forest occupies a large part of the world's forest. However, due to the lack of integrated observation data and appropriate upscaling methodologies, substantial uncertainties exist in the Rs evaluation, which limits our understanding of the carbon balance. Here, we re-evaluated the total soil carbon effluxes across China by combining field observations from 634 published annual Rs with a machine learning technique (i.e., Random Forest (RF)). Our results revealed that the combination of systematic measurements with the RF model allowed a definite estimate. The average annual Rs was 773.6 g C m -2 yr -1 , ranging from 404.6 to 1,772.3 g C m -2 yr -1 . Total forest soil carbon effluxes amounted to 1.17 Pg C yr -1 in China. Geographically, annual Rs showed a clear spatially increasing trend from northeast to southwest. Forest type is an important factor in determining the soil respiration rate. Bamboo and Evergreen broadleaf forests were higher than other types of forests. In conclusion, these results provide a unique insight into the magnitudes and mechanisms of soil CO 2 emissions in China's forest ecosystems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The role of negative emissions in meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal

China’s pledge to reach carbon neutrality before 2060 is an ambitious goal and could provide the world with much-needed leadership on how to limit warming to +1.5°C warming above preindustrial levels by the end of the century. But the pathways that would achieve net zero by 2060 are still unclear, including the role of negative emissions technologies. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to simulate how negative emissions technologies, in general, and direct air capture (DAC) in particular, could contribute to China’s meeting this target. Our results show that negative emissions could play a large role, offsetting on the order of 3 GtCO 2 per year from difficult-to-mitigate sectors, such as freight transportation and heavy industry. This includes up to a 1.6 GtCO 2 per year contribution from DAC, constituting up to 60% of total projected negative emissions in China. But DAC, like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and afforestation, has not yet been demonstrated anywhere approaching the scales required to meaningfully contribute to climate mitigation. Deploying NETs at these scales will have widespread impacts on financial systems and natural resources, such as water, land and energy in China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Role of emission controls in reducing the 2050 climate change penalty for PM2.5 in China

Previous studies demonstrated that global warming can lead to deteriorated air quality even when anthropogenic emissions were kept constant, which has been called a climate change penalty on air quality. It is expected that anthropogenic emissions will decrease significantly in the future considering the aggressive emission control actions in China. However, the dependence of climate change penalty on the choice of emission scenario is still uncertain. To fill this gap, we conducted multiple independent model simulations to investigate the response of PM2.5 to future (2050) climate warming (RCP8.5) in China but with different emission scenarios, including the constant 2015 emissions, the 2050 CLE emissions (based on Current Legislation), and the 2050 MTFR emissions (based on Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction). For each set of emissions, we estimate climate change penalty as the difference in PM2.5 between a pair of simulations with either 2015 or 2050 meteorology. Under 2015 emissions, we find a PM2.5 climate change penalty of 1.43 μg m−3 in Eastern China, leading to an additional 35,000 PM2.5-related premature deaths [95% confidence interval (CI), 21,000-40,000] by 2050. However, the PM2.5 climate change penalty weakens to 0.24 μg m−3 with strict anthropogenic emission controls under the 2050 MTFR emissions, which decreases the associated PM2.5-related deaths to 17,000. The smaller MTFR climate change penalty contributes 14% of the total PM2.5 decrease when both emissions and meteorology are changed from 2015 to 2050, and 24% of total health benefits associated with this PM2.5 decrease in Eastern China. This finding suggests that controlling anthropogenic emissions can effectively reduce the climate change penalty on PM2.5 and its associated premature deaths, even though a climate change penalty still occurs even under MTFR. Strengthened controls on anthropogenic emissions are key to attaining air quality targets and protecting human health in the context of future global climate change.

Emission controls↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dry and warm conditions in Australia exacerbated by aerosol reduction in China

A substantial decline in anthropogenic aerosols in China has been observed since the initiation of clean air actions in 2013. This study reveals a linkage between aerosol reductions in China and drier and warmer conditions in Australia. Aerosol decline in China trigger alterations in temperature and pressure gradients between the two hemispheres, leading to intensified outflow from Asia towards the South Indian Ocean, strengthening the Southern Indian Subtropical High and its related Southern Trade Winds. Consequently, this atmospheric pattern results in a moisture divergence over Australia. The reduction in surface moisture further results in more surface energy being converted into sensible heat instead of evaporating as latent heat, warming the near-surface air. The intensified dry and warm climate conditions further cause the increase in wildfire risks during fire seasons in Australia. Our study illuminates the potential impact of distant aerosols on precipitation and temperature variations in Australia, offering valuable insights for drought and wildfire risk mitigation in Australia.

aerosol-cloud interaction↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sunsetting coal power in China

Reducing CO 2 emissions from coal-fired electricity generation in China is critical to limit global warming. Long-term projections of China's electricity supply tend to assume that coal generation will be a mainstay of China's electricity system through 2050, due to limitations in the scalability of hydropower, nuclear, and natural gas generation and the commercial availability of carbon capture and storage. This paper examines the resource, economic, and institutional implications of reducing and replacing coal generation in China with mostly renewable energy and energy storage by 2040. We find that the scale of solar, wind, and storage resources needed to do so is on the order of 100–150 GW/year of solar and wind capacity and 15 GW/year of energy storage from 2020 to 2025, growing to 250 GW/year and 90 GW/year, respectively, from 2025 to 2040. We then also evaluate the sensitivities if coal plants are retired by 2050.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large balancing areas and dispersed renewable investment enhance grid flexibility in a renewable-dominant power system in China

Renewable energy is poised to play a major role in achieving China's carbon neutrality goal by 2060; however, reliability and flexibility is a big concern of a renewable-dominant power system. Various strategies of enhancing flexibility are under discussion to ensure the reliability of such a system, but no detailed quantitative analysis has been reported yet in China. We combine the advantages of a capacity expansion model, SWITCH-China, with a production simulation model, PLEXOS, and analyze flexibility options under different scenarios of a renewable-dominant power system in China. We find that a larger balancing area offers direct flexibility benefits. Regional balancing could reduce the renewable curtailment rate by 5-7%, compared with a provincial balancing strategy. National balancing could further reduce the power cost by about 16%. However, retrofitting coal power plants for flexible operation would only improve the system flexibility marginally.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mapping potentials and bridging regional gaps of renewable resources in China

Reasonable and effective use of renewable resources can reduce dependence on traditional fossil-based energy sources and reduce carbon emissions. This study mapped the spatial potentials of renewable resources (i.e., solar radiation, precipitation, wind, and geothermal resources) in China. The results showed that China's most abundant renewable resources are located in the southwestern regions, which are significantly different from the spatial distribution patterns of population and economic development. Four southwestern provinces (Tibet, Qinghai, Sichuan, and Yunnan) make up only 7% of the national gross domestic product (GDP) and 30% of the national land area but possess 58% of the renewable resources. Furthermore, we found a weak to moderate degree of negative correlation between the emergy density of renewable resources and GDP per capita on the administrative levels of the prefecture-level cities for the whole country and in its eastern, central, and western regions. This means that the socioeconomically underdeveloped Midwest has more abundant renewable resources. A distributed energy-economic system may help to bridge the regional gaps of renewable sources in China. These findings can support policy decisions for the better development and use of renewable resources in China.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

First estimation of high-resolution solar photovoltaic resource maps over China with Fengyun-4A satellite and machine learning

Fengyun-4A (FY-4A), which is the latest-generation Chinese geostationary meteorological satellite, measures solar reflection and thermal emission with high temporal, spatial, and spectral resolutions. It is expected to be highly beneficial for solar resource assessment and forecasting in China. This study is the first to estimate, using FY-4A and a random forest model, the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) at a 4-km–15-min spatio-temporal resolution over China, as a means to arrive at a solar photovoltaic (PV) resource map. In terms of GHI estimates, the root mean square error and mean bias error between hourly measured and retrieved values are 147.02 (35.2%), –5.64 W/m 2 (–1.4%), respectively, whereas the values of daily estimates are 29.20 (18.0%), –2.97 W/m 2 (–1.3%). The retrieval accuracy is found much better for instances with solar zenith angles smaller than 60°. Relatively larger errors are found at locations in the Sichuan Basin and northeastern China, which can be attributed to bright surfaces and/or strong cloud transients. With the retrieved irradiance, PV resource is derived through a physical model chain. The annual mean PV resource map suggests that, over most of the west areas, the annual mean effective irradiance exceeds 1700 kWh/m 2 , with the highest value found in Tibet (around 2000 kWh/m 2 per annum). Eastern China has an annual effective irradiance of only 1300–1500 kWh/m 2 . In conclusion, the region with poorest solar resource is the Sichuan Basin (less than 1100 kWh/m 2 per annum).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate effects of future aerosol reductions for achieving carbon neutrality in China

To limit the global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, beyond which the most dangerous impacts of climate change will occur, achieving carbon neutrality by the mid-21st century is essential. As the largest developing country and a significant contributor to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, China has announced its ambitious climate commitment to pass carbon peak before 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Both climate policies and regional clean air actions have been implemented for reductions in fossil fuel emissions, including the emissions of short-lived aerosols and precursors. Furthermore, in the context of pursuing carbon neutrality in China, aerosol reductions due to clean air actions and pollution control policies are very likely to have a great impact on climate. In this study, climate effects of aerosol reductions due to China's clean air actions under localized future emission scenarios are investigated using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). Fully coupled and atmosphere-only experiments in years of carbon peak (2030) and carbon neutrality (2060) are performed with anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursors under “Current-goals” (Current) and “Carbon-Neutral” (Neutral) scenarios from the Dynamic Projection for Emissions in China (DPEC) model that consider socioeconomic development, climate policy, and pollution control actions (Figs. S1–S4 online). In addition, a present-day emissions simulation (PD) is conducted as the reference case (Supplementary materials online). Another sensitivity simulation is also conducted, with black carbon (BC) emissions set to follow the Neutral experiment but other emissions kept at the present-day levels (Neutral_BC), to quantify the relative roles of reducing strongly absorbing BC and other aerosols on future climate towards carbon neutrality. Greenhouse gases concentrations are kept at the 2015 levels in all simulations (Text S1 online).

Yang, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2021

Role of emission controls in reducing the 2050 climate change penalty for PM2.5 in China

Previous studies demonstrated that global warming can lead to deteriorated air quality even when anthropogenic emissions were kept constant, which has been called a climate change penalty on air quality. It is expected that anthropogenic emissions will decrease significantly in the future considering the aggressive emission control actions in China. However, the dependence of climate change penalty on the choice of emission scenario is still uncertain. To fill this gap, we conducted multiple independent model simulations to investigate the response of PM2.5 to future (2050) climate warming (RCP8.5) in China but with different emission scenarios, including the constant 2015 emissions, the 2050 CLE emissions (based on Current Legislation), and the 2050 MTFR emissions (based on Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction). For each set of emissions, we estimate climate change penalty as the difference in PM2.5 between a pair of simulations with either 2015 or 2050 meteorology. Under 2015 emissions, we find a PM2.5 climate change penalty of 1.43 µg m-3 in Eastern China, leading to an additional 35,000 PM2.5-related premature deaths [95% confidence interval (CI), 21,000-40,000] by 2050. However, the PM2.5 climate change penalty weakens to 0.24 µg m-3 with strict anthropogenic emission controls under the 2050 MTFR emissions, which decreases the associated PM2.5-related deaths to 17,000. The smaller MTFR climate change penalty contributes 14% of the total PM2.5 decrease when both emissions and meteorology are changed from 2015 to 2050, and 24% of total health benefits associated with this PM2.5 decrease in Eastern China. This finding suggests that controlling anthropogenic emissions can effectively reduce the climate change penalty on PM2.5 and its associated premature deaths, even though a climate change penalty still occurs even under MTFR. Strengthened controls on anthropogenic emissions is key to attaining air quality targets and protecting human health in the context of future global climate change.

Liu, Song↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Strong Anthropogenic Black Carbon Forcing Constrained by Pollution Trends Over China

Estimates of the effective radiative forcing from aerosol-radiation interaction (ERF ari ) of anthropogenic Black Carbon (BC) have been disputable and require better constraints. Here we find a substantial decline in atmospheric absorption of −5.79Wm −2 decade −1 over eastern central China (ECC) responding to recent anthropogenic BC emission reductions. By combining the observational finding with advances from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase6 (CMIP6), we identify an emergent constraint on the ERF ari of anthropogenic BC. We show that across CMIP6 models the simulated trends correlate well with simulated annual mean shortwave atmospheric absorption by anthropogenic BC over China. Making use of this emergent relationship allows us to constrain the aerosol absorption optical depth of anthropogenic BC and further provide a constrained range of 2.4–3.0 Wm −2 for its top-of-atmosphere ERF ari over China, higher than existing estimates. Furthermore, our work supports a strong warming effect of BC over China, and highlights the need to improve BC simulations over source regions.

CMIP6 models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Co-Benefits of Mitigating Aerosol Pollution to Future Solar and Wind Energy in China Toward Carbon Neutrality

The climate commitment to achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 in China has been announced recently. In the context of pursuing carbon neutrality, sharing similar sources as greenhouse gases, aerosol particle and precursor emissions are projected to substantially decrease in China, which can potentially have a great impact on climate. Here, we investigate the effects of future aerosol reductions, because of achieving carbon neutrality, on solar and wind energy in China by using an earth system model. We show that significant reductions in aerosol emissions, particularly in eastern China, lead to increases in the surface downwelling shortwave radiation, surface air temperature and wind speed, which can further enhance the potential of solar and wind energy production. The findings underline that the pursuit of carbon neutrality can yield co-benefits of not only mitigating climate change and air pollution but also fortifying the stability of renewable energy sources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗