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At least 73 records · Page 4

Noise robust detection of quantum phase transitions

Quantum computing allows for the manipulation of highly correlated states whose properties quickly go beyond the capacity of any classical method to calculate. Thus one natural problem which could lend itself to quantum advantage is the study of ground-states of condensed matter models, and the transitions between them. However, current levels of hardware noise can require extensive application of error-mitigation techniques to achieve reliable computations. In this work, we use several IBM devices to explore a finite-size spin model with multiple “phaselike” regions characterized by distinct ground-state configurations. Using preoptimized Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) solutions, we demonstrate that in contrast to calculating the energy, where zero-noise extrapolation is required in order to obtain qualitatively accurate yet still unreliable results, calculations of the energy derivative, two-site spin correlation functions, and the fidelity susceptibility yield accurate behavior across multiple regions, even with minimal or no application of error-mitigation approaches. Taken together, these sets of observables could be used to identify level crossings in a simple, noise-robust manner which is agnostic to the method of ground state preparation. This work shows promising potential for near-term application to identifying quantum phase transitions, including avoided crossings and nonadiabatic conical intersections in electronic structure calculations. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Lively, Kevin (ORCID:0000000320981494)↗

Mirror-centered representation of a focusing hyperbolic mirror for X-ray beamlines

Conic sections are commonly used in reflective X-ray optics. Hyperbolic mirrors can focus a converging light source and are frequently paired with elliptical or parabolic mirrors in Wolter type configurations. This paper derives the closed-form expression for a mirror-centered hyperbolic shape, with zero-slope at the origin. Combined with the slope and curvature, such an expression facilitates metrology, manufacturing and mirror-bending calculations. Previous works consider ellipses, parabolas, magnifying hyperbolas or employ lengthy approximations. Here, the exact shape function is given in terms of the mirror incidence angle and the source and image distances.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Melting point of group IV and V transition metal diborides

The environmental conical nozzle levitator system enables cooling trace experiments above 4000 K. These cooling trace experiments were used to determine the melting points through observation of thermal arrest of group IV and V transition metal diborides (TiB 2 , T m = 3313 ± 33 K; ZrB 2 , T m = 3404 ± 38 K; HfB 2 , T m = 3529 ± 33 K; and TaB 2 , T m = 3284 ± 10 K; note: mean ± 2 standard error). Temperature measurements were conducted utilizing dual single-color pyrometers at wavelengths of 0.9 and 0.65 µm. This system utilizes aerodynamic levitation and dual laser heating to achieve temperatures approaching 4000 K. The samples were synthesized from commercial powders using ceramic gel-casting to produce high-density spherical components. The measurements obtained were compared to previously reported melting temperature values and were generally found to be in agreement with most of the published values.

Materials science↗

Ultrafast Events in Electrocyclic Ring-Opening Reactions

Electrocyclic reactions are characterized by the concerted formation and cleavage of multiple σ and π bonds in a molecular system and have been extensively studied since they were introduced by Robert Burns Woodward and Roald Hoffmann in 1965. Recent advances and the integration of time-resolved experiments and nonadiabatic quantum molecular dynamics simulations have transformed the traditional understanding of electrocyclic reactions beyond the Woodward–Hoffmann rules. In this review, we focus on recent studies of 1,3-cyclohexadiene and two of its derivatives, α-phellandrene and α-terpinene, to shed light on the underlying mechanisms of electrocyclic photochemical reactions. We highlight recent progress in ultrafast electron diffraction techniques and the simulation approach of ab initio multiple spawning. Together, these approaches can elucidate molecular structure dynamics from femtosecond to picosecond timescales as well as nuclear and electronic responses at conical intersections.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The study of high-frequency pick-ups for electron beam position measurements in the AWAKE common beamline

The common beamline of the AWAKE experiment at CERN involves the co-propagation of two particle beams: protons with 48 nC bunch charge and 250 ps bunch length, and electrons with up to 600 pC bunch charge and approximately 4 ps bunch length. The existing operational beam position monitors at AWAKE cannot measure the electron bunches whilst the more-intense proton bunches are present, due to their low operating frequency. In order to try to address this challenge, two different types of high-frequency pick-ups were studied, a conical-shaped button pick-up and a Cherenkov diffraction radiation-based pick-up designed to operate at around 30 GHz. Both devices were installed at AWAKE and were connected to two identical read-out systems designed by TRIUMF. This contribution presents and discusses the results obtained from beam-based measurements during the current experimental year.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Electron bunch position determination using a high frequency button beam position monitor in the AWAKE facility

The AWAKE facility uses novel proton beam-driven plasma wakefields to accelerate electron bunches over 10m of Rubidium plasma. Precise monitoring of 2 diverse beam types necessitates an electron beam position monitor (BPM) working in a frequency regime of tens of GHz. A high frequency conical button-style BPM with a working regime of up to 40 GHz has been investigated as a way to discriminate the electromagnetic fields of 19 MeV, 4 ps electron bunches propagating spatially and temporally together with a 400 GeV, 170 ps proton bunch in the AWAKE common beamline. The sensitivity of the HF BPM to the electron beam position is determined under various beam conditions, with both electrons and protons, and integration with a TRIUMF front-end is discussed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

WHYMSIE-SGP Field Campaign Report

Through a partnership between the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this field campaign demonstrated first-of-its-kind hyperspectral microwave airborne measurements (Conical Scanning Millimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer [CoSMIR-H]). It was complemented by other passive (infrared, visible) and active (lidar) sensors onboard the NASA ER-2 aircraft. Serving as a future NASA planetary boundary-layer (PBL) mission prototype, the Westcoast and Heartland Hyperspectral Microwave Intensive Experiment (WH 2 yMSIE, formerly WHyMSIE) aimed to capture a wide variety of thermodynamic, moisture, and PBL regimes across a variety of surface types. The intensive operating period of the campaign spanned from October 22, 2024, through November 15, 2024, and included a large network of collaborators.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

New Methods for Predicting Non-Born-Oppenheimer Chemistry

Current methods for modeling non-adiabatic molecular dynamics face fundamental limitations when treating geometric phase effects: quantum mechanical phenomena where nuclear wavepackets acquire phase shifts when encircling conical intersections. Existing approaches either neglect these effects entirely or rely on potential energy surfaces arising from the Born-Oppenheimer approximation, which introduce artificial singularities and can overestimate geometric phase contributions. This project developed a new theoretical framework based on exact factorization (XF) methods to overcome these limitations. We derived mathematical formulations for hybrid quantum-classical XF dynamics that selectively treat critical nuclear degrees of freedom quantum mechanically while propagating others classically. This approach addresses the computational intractability that has previously limited exact methods to toy systems. Key innovations include a new approach to systematically identifying nuclear coordinates requiring quantum treatment, as well as novel implementation strategies that interface with existing quantum chemistry codes. The project also developed a proof-of-concept code for treating Jahn-Teller systems and creation of educational materials on non-adiabatic dynamics geared at the graduate level. The theoretical framework developed will enable future systematically improvable calculations of nuclear quantum effects in realistic molecular systems, filling a critical gap in non-adiabatic dynamics methods. This foundation supports future development of predictive tools for designing energy-relevant photochemical processes where quantum coherence effects may be exploited to control reaction outcomes.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Uncertainty-Driven Rapid Thermodynamic Assessment of Nb-Ta-Zr System and Effects of C impurities (L25GF9298S): Annual Progress Report

An integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) method is in development for rapid thermodynamic experimental investigation and high-fidelity computational modeling of refractory multi-principal element alloys (RMPEAs). These ultra-high-temperature (UHT) alloys are of interest for structural applications in extreme environments, but deficiency of reliable data, especially melting temperatures, impedes the prediction of alloys with favorable properties. The method leverages UHT capabilities and computational expertise of LLNL’s Materials Science Division and the McCormack Lab’s UHT conical nozzle levitation (CNL) system to iteratively map the Nb-Ta-Zr phase space, with focus on the liquidus surface, through targeted experiments selected by quantifying uncertainty in the thermodynamic model fitting parameters. This method will reduce the time to map uncharted RMPEA phase space and thereby accelerate discovery and development of advanced materials for applications in extreme environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A High Intensity Spin-Polarized Electron Photogun to Drive a Polarized Positron Source

A photogun to generate a high-intensity, highly spin-polarized electron beam >90% with unprecedented charge lifetime in the kilocoulomb range is envisioned at JLab for a proposed Ce+BAF polarized positron beam source. The electron photogun is expected to provide a CW beam of >1 mA for a month without intervention. A limiting factor is ion-back bom-bardment on the strained-superlattice GaAs-photocathode which can be reduced by improving the photogun vacuum or biasing the anode. Additionally, increasing the laser spot size can help mitigate ion-induced damage. However, eventually the laser size becomes too large for the photogun electrode. An envisioned photogun design will incorporate larger electrodes to accommodate larger and off-center laser spot sizes. Compatible larger conical insulators which operate >300 kV for beam injection into a Beta~1 SRF booster are also necessary.

Hernandez Garcia, Carlos↗

Temperature Measurements in Hypersonic Wind Tunnels via Femtosecond Coherent Anti-Stokes Raman Scattering

A femtosecond coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (fs CARS) instrument is developed to perform gas-phase thermometry in cold-flow hypersonic wind tunnels. Measurements are reported for Mach 8 and 14 pure-nitrogen flows. The fs CARS instrument includes a 100 fs pump/Stokes pulse and a spectrally narrow probe pulse from a second harmonic bandwidth compressor. Important experimental considerations such as limits on the pump/Stokes pulse energy are discussed. The fs CARS focusing and collimating optics are mounted on a two-axis translation stage system to scan the measurement location during a 30 second wind tunnel run. Single-laser-shot rotational CARS spectra are recorded at the laser repetition rate of 1 kHz in the wind tunnel freestream and near simple cone models. Spectral fitting is used to determine quantitative gas temperatures. Freestream temperatures at Mach 8 and 14 spanned ranges of 40–75 and 35–50 K, respectively, depending on tunnel operating conditions. Temperature variations across the central 100 mm span of the wind tunnel were quantified. Measured temperature jumps across conical bow shocks from various models varied by less than 1% from predicted values. Hypersonic boundary layer measurements were demonstrated. In conclusion, these measurements illustrate the utility and robustness of this instrument for the study of complex fluid flow phenomena in challenging ground test facilities.

Aerodynamics↗

Radiation GRMHD Models of Accretion onto Stellar-mass Black Holes. II. Super-Eddington Accretion

We present a comprehensive analysis of super-Eddington black hole accretion simulations that solve the GRMHD equations coupled with angle-discretized radiation transport. The simulations span a range of accretion rates, two black hole spins, and two magnetic field topologies, and include resolution studies as well as comparisons with nonradiative models. Super-Eddington accretion flows consistently develop geometrically thick disks supported by radiation pressure, regardless of magnetic field configuration. Radiation generated in the inner disk drives substantial outflows, forming conical funnel regions that limit photon escape and result in very low radiation efficiency. The accretion flows are highly turbulent, with thermal energy transport dominated by radiation advection rather than diffusion. Angular momentum is primarily carried outward by Maxwell stress, with turbulent Reynolds stress playing a subdominant role. Both strong and weak jets are produced. Strong jets arise from sufficient net vertical magnetic flux and rapid black hole spin, and they can effectively evacuate the funnel, enabling radiation to escape through strong geometric beaming. In contrast, weak jets fail to clear the funnel, which becomes obscured by radiation-driven outflows and leads to distinct observational signatures. Spiral structures are observed in the plunging region, behaving like density waves. These super-Eddington models are applicable to a variety of astronomical systems, including ultraluminous X-ray sources, little red dots, and black hole transients.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Simulations of the collection of mesospheric dust particles with a rocket instrument

We investigate the collection of dust particles in the mesosphere with the MESS (MEteoric Smoke Sampler) instrument that is designed to fly on a sounding rocket. We assume that the ice particles that form in the polar mesosphere between 80 and 85 km altitude in summer contain meteoric smoke particles; and these should be collected with MESS. The instrument consists of a collection device with an opening and closure mechanism, as well as an attached conic funnel which increases the sampling area in comparison to the collection area. Dust particles are collected either directly after passing through the instrument or indirectly after colliding with and fragmenting on the funnel wall. We calculate the dust and fragment trajectories in the detector to determine the collection efficiency for different particle sizes, rocket velocities, and heights, and we find the final velocities and the temperatures of the particles. The considered design has a sampling area of 62.78 mm diameter and a collection area of 20 mm diameter. For the conditions at the rocket launch site in Andøya, Norway, we estimate the collection of meteoric smoke particles contained in the ice particles to be ~10 12 –10 14 amu mm –2 . The estimated temperatures suggest that the composition of these smoke particles is not affected by the collection. Our calculations also show that keeping the instrument open above 85 km altitude increases the amount of small smoke particles that are directly collected. The directly collected smoke particles are heated as they decelerate, which can affect their composition.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

AWAKEN CLAMPS1 Doppler Lidar VAD Data

These files contain 24 hour periods of data collected from the CLAMPS1 Halo Streamline XR+ Doppler lidar. The Doppler lidar conducts regular conical scans at a set elevation angle. These data are then passed through a typical VAD algorithm to retrieve horizontal wind speed and direction profiles. These data were collected during the AWAKEN project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AWAKEN CLAMPS2 Doppler Lidar VAD Data

These files contain 24 hour periods of data collected from the CLAMPS2 Halo Streamline XR+ Doppler lidar. The Doppler lidar conducts regular conical scans at a set elevation angle. These data are then passed through a typical VAD algorithm to retrieve horizontal wind speed and direction profiles. These data were collected during the AWAKEN project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations

Overview The Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (CERF) model is an open-source geospatial python package that provides new power plant locations at a 1km resolution. The model ingests U.S. state or regional-scale electricity system capacity expansion plans, such as those produced by the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), and identifies feasible, site-specific locations for individual new power plants (renewable and non-renewable). CERF combines high-resolution geospatial suitability analyses with an economic algorithm that selects individual plant siting locations based on grid interconnection costs and the locational marginal value of new generation. The model incorporates a wide range of dynamic constraints and opportunities, such as protected lands, population density, existing infrastructure, and water availability. This dataset provides CERF power plant siting results for IM3 Phase 2 simulations across eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 CERF siting results in this dataset correspond to capacity expansion plans in the GCAM-USA IM3 Phase 2 simulation data and are available for each of the above scenarios. Data Details Temporal Range: 2015-2055 in 5-year timesteps. Note that 2015 is the experiment base year and 2020 and beyond represent model simulation years. Spatial Range: Plant locations are provided for the eleven states in the Western US including Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Spatial Resolution: 1 km-squared, provided in x and y coordinates Geospatial Projection: Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) File Type: csv The dataset contains subdirectories for each of the eight scenarios described in the overview. Each scenario folder contains two subfolders with the following information: 1. Power Plant Data This directory contains a single .csv file of power plant locations for both pre-existing (non-CERF sited plants in operation in 2015) and new (CERF-sited) power plants across the temporal range along with additional CERF model output parameters for CERF-sited plants. Plant with a siting year earlier than 2020 correspond to facilities that are operational leading into the first timestep CERF simulation. For a more detailed description of CERF model output parameters, see the CERF model documentation. Note that the cerf_plant_id parameter is unique within each scenario file but not across scenario files. Parameter Descriptions scenario - Name of scenario cerf_plant_id - Unique siting identifier cerf_sited - If True, indicates that plant was sited by CERF model. If False, indicates pre-existing facility region_name - Name of region (state) tech_id - Technology ID tech_name - Full generation technology name inclusive of cooling type (if applicable) and additional characteristics tech_simple - Simplified generation technology type unit_size_mw - Power plant unit size (MW) xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) index - Index position in the flattend 2D array buffer_in_km - Exclusion buffer around site (km) sited_year - Year of siting retirement_year - Year of retirement lmp_zone - Locational marginal price (LMP) zone ID locational_marginal_price_usd_per_mwh - Locational marginal price ($/MWh) generation_mwh_per_year - Generation output (MWh/yr) operating_cost_usd_per_year - Cost of plant operations ($/yr) net_operational_value - Net operational value based on LMP and and operating costs ($/yr) interconnection_cost - Cost of interconnection for transmission & gas pipeline (if applicable) net_locational_cost -- Difference of interconnection cost and operating value ($/yr) capacity_factor_fraction - Capacity factor (fraction) carbon_capture_rate_fraction - Carbon capture rate (fraction) fuel_co2_content_tons_per_btu - Fuel CO2 content (tons/Btu) fuel_price_usd_per_mmbtu - Fuel price ($/MMBtu) fuel_price_esc_rate_fraction - Fuel price escalation rate (fraction) heat_rate_btu_per_kWh - Heat rate (Btu/kWh) lifetime_yrs - Technology lifetime for annuity (years) operational_life_yrs - Operational lifetime for retirement (years) variable_om_usd_per_mwh - Variable operation and maintenance costs of yearly capacity use ($/MWh) variable_om_esc_rate_fraction - Variable operation and maintenance costs escalation rate (fraction) carbon_tax_usd_per_ton - Carbon tax ($/ton) carbon_tax_esc_rate_fraction - Carbon tax escalation rate (fraction) 2. Storage Data This directory contains information on new and pre-existing energy storage facilities operational in each timestep along with various storage operational parameters. The 2015 timestep provides pre-existing energy storage data and corresponds with facilities that are operational leading into the first model simulation timestep. Note that coordinates in the storage files correspond to the interconnection point on the grid (substation location), not individual energy storage locations. Energy storage is added in a cumulative process at each given interconnection point. That is, each individual file provides the total operational storage capacity interconnected to the specified substation for the given timestep, inclusive of previously installed storage at that location and new storage installed in that timestep at that location. Parameters scenario - Name of scenario timestep - Simulation timestep name - Unique storage identifier s_typ - Type of energy storage technology (battery or pumped storage hydro) s_node - Node ID of interconnecting substation xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) charge_rate - Maximum charge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) discharge_rate - Maximum discharge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) duration - Duration of storage system (hours) max_SoC - Allowed maximum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) min_SoC -Allowed minimum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) charge_eff - Efficiency of charge (fraction between 0 and 1) discharge_eff - Efficiency of discharge (fraction between 0 and 1) Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

CERF↗

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations This dataset contains model projections of new data center facilities in the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2035 using the CERF – Data Centers model. Data center locations are modeled across four data center electricity demand growth scenarios (low, moderate, high, higher) and five market gravity scenarios (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%). Projected locations are intended to be regional representations of feasible siting locations in the future to assess potential grid and water stress impacts. The data center load growth scenarios correspond with the rates outlined in EPRI (2024) and include 3.71%, 5%, 10%, and 15% annual growth of electricity demand for data centers from 2023 values in 37 states across the CONUS. Market gravity scenarios correspond to the relative importance of proximity to data center markets or high population areas compared to locational cost in the siting algorithm. 0% market gravity means that siting decisions were entirely determined by the locational cost in each feasible location. 100% market gravity means that only market proximity was considered when siting. Other scenarios have weight placed on both components where total weight always equals 100%. Locational cost is dependent on facility cooling type and corresponding electricity cost, taxes, and other factors. Facility cooling type is spatially determined where high water stress and/or areas with high summer wet bulb temperatures are assumed to operate with mechanical cooling for a higher fraction of the year rather than evaporative cooling. Feasible data center siting areas are based on geospatial suitability raster data developed with open-source information. The following areas are excluded from siting: Areas within 300 m of a federal airport runway Waterbodies Areas with slope >16% Areas susceptible to sinkholes High coastal or inland flood risk areas Local, state, and federal parks, leisure areas, and cemeteries Areas >2 km away from electric substations Areas >5 km away from a municipal water supplier service area Areas >2 km away from high-speed fiber provider service territory Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US) areas Railroads, major roadways, and minor roadways Military areas and training grounds NLCD developed lands Areas >0.8 km (0.5 miles) from NLCD developed lands Because we use open-source information, proprietary information that can influence siting decisions such as individual tax agreements with cities, detailed fiber line connectivity, electric grid power capacity agreements, and others, are not currently accounted for in the modeling process. Using specific building locations and footprints in the dataset for local planning purposes is not advised. Technical Information Geospatial data is provided in geojson format using the Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) coordinate reference system. The datasets contain the following parameters: id - unique identification number within given scenario file growth_scenario – data center demand growth scenario market_gravity_weight – market gravity weight scenario (%) region – name of region (i.e., US State) total_cost_million_usd – locational siting cost ($million) campus_size_square_ft – total land acquired for data center facility (square ft) data_center_it_power_mw – IT power of data center facility (MW) mechanical_cooling_frac – fraction of year when data center uses mechanical cooling system water_cooling_frac– fraction of year when data center uses evaporative cooling system cooling_energy_demand_mwh – total annual facility energy demand for cooling (MWh) cooling_water_demand_mgy – total annual facility water demand for cooling (MG) cooling_water_consumption_mgy – total annual facility water consumed (MG) normalized_locational_cost – normalized total locational cost score for location normalized_gravity_score – normalized market gravity score for location weighted_siting_score – total weighted siting score of locational cost and gravity score geometry – polygon geometry of facility Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4.0 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection Description This dataset contains input and output data for the manuscript Mongird, K. et al. (under review) titled "Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection". Input data corresponds to gridded spatial siting attributes that are necessary to conduct a random forest machine learning analysis of siting feature importance. Output data includes SHAP feature analysis outputs, and classification report values. For data on power plant siting results referred to in the manuscript, please refer to the CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations data download page. The downloadable data includes values for eight different future scenarios for the Western US. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 Technical Information The dataset includes two sets of data files: (1) CERF gridded siting parameters and (2) Feature analysis outputs and classification reports. All downloadable data is in csv file format. Files with x/y coordinate information use the Albers Equal Area Conic projection (ESRI:102003). 1. CERF Gridded Siting Parameters This directory provides a balanced sample of gridded CERF siting parameters data for eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055, seven different technologies, and eight timesteps. This data serves as input to the feature analysis. It contains the following parameters. region_name - name of region (i.e., state) sited - binary value representing whether the grid cell received a siting of that technology type (1=True) rcp - binary value representing scenario resource concentration pathway (0 = RCP4.5, 1 = RCP8.5) ssp - binary value representing scenario shared socioeconomic pathway (0 = SSP3, 1 = SSP5) climate - binary value representing cooler (0) or hotter (1) GCM forcing tech_name - generation technology name sited_year - year that values correspond to transmission_cost - cost of transmission interconnection pipeline_cost - cost of natural gas pipeline interconnection interconnection_cost - total interconnection cost (sum of transmission cost and gas pipeline cost) lmp - associated locational marginal value ($/MWh) associated with the grid cell, timestep, scenario, and technology xcoord - x-coordinate of location ycoord - y-coordinate of location 2a. Feature Analysis Output The dataset includes the feature analysis shap output for locational marginal price and interconnection cost. It contains the following parameters. technology - generator technology name scenario - name of scenario feature - name of feature, either locational_marginal_price or interconnection_cost value - the mean of absolute value of SHAP values for given feature 2b. Feature Analysis Classification Report This download includes the classification report associated with each random forest model. The dataset contains the following parameters. technology - generation technology name scenario - name of scenario test - one of precision (the proportion of predicted positives that are actually correct), recall (the proportion of actual positives that were correctly identified), f1-score (the harmonic mean of precision and recall) 0.0 - value of test for classification of 0 (grid cell not chosen for siting) 1.0 - value of test for classification of 1 (grid cell chosen for siting) accuracy - accuracy of model (i.e., fraction of all predictions that were right) macro avg - Simple average of test values for all classes weighted avg - Weighted average of test values for all classes, weighted based on Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗