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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identification of driver genes for critical forms of COVID-19 in a deeply phenotyped young patient cohort

The drivers of critical coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remain unknown. Given major confounding factors such as age and comorbidities, true mediators of this condition have remained elusive. We used a multi-omics analysis combined with artificial intelligence in a young patient cohort where major comorbidities were excluded at the onset. The cohort included 47 “critical” (in the intensive care unit under mechanical ventilation) and 25 “non-critical” (in a non-critical care ward) patients with COVID-19 and 22 healthy individuals. The analyses included whole-genome sequencing, whole-blood RNA sequencing, plasma and blood mononuclear cell proteomics, cytokine profiling, and high-throughput immunophenotyping. An ensemble of machine learning, deep learning, quantum annealing, and structural causal modeling were used. Patients with critical COVID-19 were characterized by exacerbated inflammation, perturbed lymphoid and myeloid compartments, increased coagulation, and viral cell biology. Among differentially expressed genes, we observed up-regulation of the metalloprotease ADAM9. This gene signature was validated in a second independent cohort of 81 critical and 73 recovered patients with COVID-19 and was further confirmed at the transcriptional and protein level and by proteolytic activity. Ex vivo ADAM9 inhibition decreased severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) uptake and replication in human lung epithelial cells. In conclusion, within a young, otherwise healthy, cohort of individuals with COVID-19, we provide the landscape of biological perturbations in vivo where a unique gene signature differentiated critical from non-critical patients. We further identified ADAM9 as a driver of disease severity and a candidate therapeutic target.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing the Spread of COVID-19 from Human Mobility Patterns and SocioDemographic Indicators

Mobility is an indicator of human movement through space and time. With the increasing availability of geolocated data (from GPS, accelerometers, etc.), it is now possible to examine individual as well as group human mobility patterns. Human mobility is influenced by both intrinsic (i.e. personal motivations) and extrinsic (i.e., events like natural hazards or a pandemic like the COVID-19) factors. However, the intricate relationships between human mobility patterns and sociodemographic characteristics in the context of a pandemic are yet to be fully explored. Our goal is to overcome this gap by using human mobility data at the census block group level from mobile phones and combining those with social vulnerability indicators to examine the overall spread of COVID-19 at local spatial scales. We used 585,878 weekly visits to 37,871 points of interests (POIs) from Safegraph to quantify mobility indices and social distancing metrics in 2,820 census block groups in the city of Los Angeles (LA) - before and during lockdown as well as during the phase1 and phase 2 reopening. Finally, using supervised machine learning algorithms, we classified the census block groups in LA into High, Medium and Low categories that represented the vulnerability of these block groups based on the cumulative number of occurrences of COVID-19 cases till July 24, 2020. Our results indicate that the tree-based classifiers performed well in comparison to the Support Vector Machines and Multinomial Logit models. Gradient Boosting had the highest classification accuracy of 97.4% COVID-19 with an AUC score of 0.987. The block groups with high COVID-19 cases also had a high concentration of socially vulnerable populations, high human mobility index and a low social distancing index.

Roy, Avipsa↗
DOE OSTI2022

A MUC 5 B Gene Polymorphism, rs35705950-T, Confers Protective Effects Against COVID-19 Hospitalization but Not Severe Disease or Mortality

A common MUC5B gene polymorphism, rs35705950-T, is associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but its role in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection and disease severity is unclear. To assess whether rs35705950-T confers differential risk for clinical outcomes associated with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) infection among participants in the Million Veteran Program (MVP). The MUC5B rs35705950-T allele was directly genotyped among MVP participants; clinical events and comorbidities were extracted from the electronic health records. Associations between the incidence or severity of COVID-19 and rs35705950-T were analyzed within each ancestry group in the MVP followed by transancestry meta-analysis. Replication and joint meta-analysis were conducted using summary statistics from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative (HGI). Sensitivity analyses with adjustment for additional covariates (body mass index, Charlson comorbidity index, smoking, asbestosis, rheumatoid arthritis with interstitial lung disease, and IPF) and associations with post–COVID-19 pneumonia were performed in MVP subjects. The MUC5B variant rs35705950-T may confer protection in COVID-19 hospitalizations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Serial Testing After Exposure to COVID-19 in Early Care and Education Facilities, Illinois, March–May 2022

Objective: To understand SARS-CoV-2 transmission in early care and education (ECE) settings, we implemented a Test to Stay (TTS) strategy, which allowed children and staff who were close contacts to COVID-19 to remain in person if they agreed to test twice after exposure. We describe SARS-CoV-2 transmission, testing preferences, and the number of in-person days saved among participating ECE facilities. Methods: From March 21 through May 27, 2022, 32 ECE facilities in Illinois implemented TTS. Unvaccinated children and staff who were not up to date with COVID-19 vaccination could participate if exposed to COVID-19. Participants received 2 tests within 7 days after exposure and were given the option to test at home or at the ECE facility. Results: During the study period, 331 TTS participants were exposed to index cases (defined as people attending the ECE facility with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result during the infectious period); 14 participants tested positive, resulting in a secondary attack rate of 4.2%. No tertiary cases (defined as a person with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result within 10 days after exposure to a secondary case) occurred in the ECE facilities. Most participants (366 of 383; 95.6%) chose to test at home. Remaining in-person after an exposure to COVID-19 saved approximately 1915 in-person days among children and staff and approximately 1870 parent workdays. Conclusion: SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates were low in ECE facilities during the study period. Serial testing after COVID-19 exposure among children and staff at ECE facilities is a valuable strategy to allow children to remain in person and parents to avoid missing workdays.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the reliability of medical resource demand models in the context of COVID-19

Abstract Background Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain. Methods Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage. We conducted separate analyses to evaluate each of these components. In the first analysis, we validated various hospital use epidemiological models using a recent validation framework designed for epidemiological models. This allowed us to quantify the accuracy of the models in predicting critical aspects such as the date and magnitude of local COVID-19 peaks, among other factors. In the second analysis, we evaluated a range of demand calculators for ventilators, medical gowns, and COVID-19 test kits. To achieve this, we decoupled these demand calculators from the underlying epidemiological models and provided ground truth data for their inputs. This approach enabled a direct comparison of the demand calculators, comparing them against each other and actual usage data when available. The code is available athttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13712387. Results Performance varied greatly across the epidemiological models, with greater variability in COVID-19 hospital use predictions than for COVID-19 deaths as analyzed previously. Some models did not have any peaks. Among those that did, the models under-estimated date of peak approximately as often as they over-estimated, but were more likely to under-estimate magnitude of peak, with typical relative errors around 50%. Regarding demand calculator predictions, there was significant variability, including five-fold differences in predictions for gown models. Validation against actual or surrogate usage data illustrated the potential value of demand models while demonstrating their limitations. Conclusions The emerging field of demand modeling holds promise in averting medical resource shortages during future public health emergencies. However, achieving this potential necessitates focused efforts on standardization, transparency, and rigorous model validation before placing reliance on demand models in critical public health decision-making.

Medical Informatics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and COVID-19 severity: a prospective cohort study

The tremendous global health burden related to COVID-19 means that identifying determinants of COVID-19 severity is important for prevention and intervention. We aimed to explore long-term exposure to ambient air pollution as a potential contributor to COVID-19 severity, given its known impact on the respiratory system. Methods: We used a cohort of all people with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, aged 20 years and older and not residing in a long-term care facility in Ontario, Canada, during 2020. We evaluated the association between long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ground-level ozone (O 3 ), and risk of COVID-19-related hospital admission, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death. We ascertained individuals’ longterm exposures to each air pollutant based on their residence from 2015 to 2019. We used logistic regression and adjusted for confounders and selection bias using various individual and contextual covariates obtained through data linkage. Results: Among the 151105 people with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in Ontario in 2020, we observed 8630 hospital admissions, 1912 ICU admissions and 2137 deaths related to COVID-19. For each interquartile range increase in exposure to PM 2.5 (1.70 µg/m 3 ), we estimated odds ratios of 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.12), 1.09 (95% CI 0.98–1.21) and 1.00 (95% CI 0.90–1.11) for hospital admission, ICU admission and death, respectively. Estimates were smaller for NO 2 . We also estimated odds ratios of 1.15 (95% CI 1.06–1.23), 1.30 (95% CI 1.12–1.50) and 1.18 (95% CI 1.02–1.36) per interquartile range increase of 5.14 ppb in O 3 for hospital admission, ICU admission and death, respectively.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Relationship between Telework Experience and Presenteeism during COVID-19 Pandemic, United States, March–November 2020

Persons with COVID-19–like illnesses are advised to stay home to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. We assessed relationships between telework experience and COVID-19 illness with work attendance when ill. Adults experiencing fever, cough, or loss of taste or smell who sought healthcare or COVID-19 testing in the United States during March–November 2020 were enrolled. Adults with telework experience before illness were more likely to work at all (onsite or remotely) during illness (87.8%) than those with no telework experience (49.9%) (adjusted odds ratio 5.48, 95% CI 3.40–8.83). COVID-19 case-patients were less likely to work onsite (22.1%) than were persons with other acute respiratory illnesses (37.3%) (adjusted odds ratio 0.36, 95% CI 0.24–0.53). Among COVID-19 case-patients with telework experience, only 6.5% worked onsite during illness. Telework experience before illness gave mildly ill workers the option to work and improved compliance with public health recommendations to stay home during illness.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

COVID-19 vaccination status, side effects, and perceptions among breast cancer survivors: a cross-sectional study in China

Introduction Breast cancer is the most prevalent malignancy in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, vaccination data of this population are limited. Methods A cross-sectional study of COVID-19 vaccination was conducted in China. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to assess factors associated with COVID-19 vaccination status. Results Of 2,904 participants, 50.2% were vaccinated with acceptable side effects. Most of the participants received inactivated virus vaccines. The most common reason for vaccination was “fear of infection” (56.2%) and “workplace/government requirement” (33.1%). While the most common reason for nonvaccination was “worry that vaccines cause breast cancer progression or interfere with treatment” (72.9%) and “have concerns about side effects or safety” (39.6%). Patients who were employed (odds ratio, OR = 1.783, p = 0.015), had stage I disease at diagnosis (OR = 2.008, p = 0.019), thought vaccines could provide protection (OR = 1.774, p = 0.007), thought COVID-19 vaccines were safe, very safe, not safe, and very unsafe (OR = 2.074, p < 0.001; OR = 4.251, p < 0.001; OR = 2.075, p = 0.011; OR = 5.609, p = 0.003, respectively) were more likely to receive vaccination. Patients who were 1–3 years, 3–5 years, and more than 5 years after surgery (OR = 0.277, p < 0.001; OR = 0.277, p < 0.001, OR = 0.282, p < 0.001, respectively), had a history of food or drug allergies (OR = 0.579, p = 0.001), had recently undergone endocrine therapy (OR = 0.531, p < 0.001) were less likely to receive vaccination. Conclusion COVID-19 vaccination gap exists in breast cancer survivors, which could be filled by raising awareness and increasing confidence in vaccine safety during cancer treatment, particularly for the unemployed individuals.

Xu, Yali↗
DOE OSTI2023

A network analysis of the long-term quality of life and mental distress of COVID-19 survivors 1 year after hospital discharge

Objectives COVID-19 survivors suffer from persistent mental distress and impaired quality of life (QOL) after recovery from the infection. However, the symptom-symptom interaction between these psychological variables remained unexplored. The present study aimed to determine the symptom network of mental distress (depression, anxiety, sleep disturbance, fatigue, and post-traumatic stress disorder) and their association with QOL among 535 COVID-19 survivors 1 year after hospital discharge. Methods 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire, 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale, Chalder fatigue scale, Impact of Event Scale-Revised, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, and 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey were applied to measure depression, anxiety, fatigue, PTSD, sleep disturbances, and QOL, respectively. Two networks were estimated using Gaussian graphical model. Network 1 consisted of mental symptoms to determine the central and bridge symptoms. Network 2 additionally included QOL to determine which mental symptoms were mostly related to QOL. Results 60% of the COVID-19 survivors experienced mental distress 1 year after hospital discharge. Uncontrollable and excessive worry, psychomotor symptoms, intrusion, and daytime dysfunction were the most central symptoms. Daytime dysfunction and fatigue (especially mental fatigue and loss of energy) served as the bridge symptoms across the mental distress network and exhibited the most substantial association with QOL. Conclusion Our study demonstrated several key symptoms that played a vital role in mental distress and QOL among COVID-19 survivors. Prompt screening and targeted interventions for these symptoms might hold great promise in preventing mental distress and improving QOL in COVID-19 survivors.

Peng, Pu↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of changes in protective behaviors and out-of-household activities by age on COVID-19 transmission and hospitalization in Chicago, Illinois

Even with an efficacious vaccine, protective behaviors (social distancing, masking) are essential for preventing COVID-19 transmission and could become even more important if current or future variants evade immunity from vaccines or prior infection. Here we created an agent-based model representing the Chicago population and conducted experiments to determine the effects of varying adult out-of-household activities (OOHA), school reopening, and protective behaviors across age groups on COVID-19 transmission and hospitalizations. From September-November 2020, decreasing adult protective behaviors and increasing adult OOHA both substantially impacted COVID-19 outcomes; school reopening had relatively little impact when adult protective behaviors and OOHA were maintained. As of November 1, 2020, a 50% reduction in young adult (age 18-40) protective behaviors resulted in increased latent infection prevalence per 100,000 from 15.93 (IQR 6.18, 36.23) to 40.06 (IQR 14.65, 85.21)and 19.87 (IQR 6.83, 46.83) to 47.74 (IQR 18.89, 118.77) with 15% and 45% school reopening. Increasing adult (age ≥18) OOHA from 65% to 80% of pre-pandemic levels resulted in increased latent infection prevalence per 100,000 from 35.18 (IQR 13.59, 75.00) to 69.84 (IQR 33.27, 145.89) and 38.17 (IQR 15.84, 91.16) to 80.02 (IQR 30.91, 186.63) with 15% and 45% school reopening. Similar patterns were observed for hospitalizations. In areas without widespread vaccination coverage, interventions to maintain adherence to protective behaviors, particularly among younger adults and in out-of-household settings, remain a priority for preventing COVID-19 transmission.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian inference of heterogeneous epidemic models: Application to COVID-19 spread accounting for long-term care facilities

Here we propose a high dimensional Bayesian inference framework for learning heterogeneous dynamics of a COVID-19 model, with a specific application to the dynamics and severity of COVID-19 inside and outside long-term care (LTC) facilities. We develop a heterogeneous compartmental model that accounts for the heterogeneity of the time-varying spread and severity of COVID-19 inside and outside LTC facilities, which is characterized by time-dependent stochastic processes and time-independent parameters in ~ 1500 dimensions after discretization. To infer these parameters, we use reported data on the number of confirmed, hospitalized, and deceased cases with suitable post-processing in both a deterministic inversion approach with appropriate regularization as a first step, followed by Bayesian inversion with proper prior distributions. To address the curse of dimensionality and the ill-posedness of the high-dimensional inference problem, we propose use of a dimension-independent projected Stein variational gradient descent method, and demonstrate the intrinsic low-dimensionality of the inverse problem. We present inference results with quantified uncertainties for both New Jersey and Texas, which experienced different epidemic phases and patterns. Moreover, we also present forecasting and validation results based on the empirical posterior samples of our inference for the future trajectory of COVID-19.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

COVID-19 pandemic ramifications on residential Smart homes energy use load profiles

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected people’s behavioral patterns and schedules because of stay-at-home orders and a reduction of social interactions. Therefore, the shape of electrical loads associated with residential buildings has also changed. In this paper, we quantify the changes and perform a detailed analysis on how the load shapes have changed, and we make potential recommendations for utilities to handle peak load and demand response. Our analysis incorporates data from before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, from an Alabama Power Smart Neighborhood with energy-efficient/smart devices, using around 40 advanced metering infrastructure data points. This paper highlights the energy usage pattern changes between weekdays and weekends pre– and post–COVID-19 pandemic times. The weekend usage patterns look similar pre– and post–COVID-19 pandemic, but weekday patterns show significant changes. We also compare energy use of the Smart Neighborhood with a traditional neighborhood to better understand how energy-efficient/smart devices can provide energy savings, especially because of increased work-from-home situations. HVAC and water heating remain the largest consumers of electricity in residential homes, and our findings indicate an even further increase in energy use by these systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modern Senicide in the Face of a Pandemic: An Examination of Public Discourse and Sentiment About Older Adults and COVID-19 Using Machine Learning

Objectives This study examined public discourse and sentiment regarding older adults and COVID-19 on social media and assessed the extent of ageism in public discourse. Methods Twitter data (N = 82,893) related to both older adults and COVID-19 and dated from January 23 to May 20, 2020, were analyzed. We used a combination of data science methods (including supervised machine learning, topic modeling, and sentiment analysis), qualitative thematic analysis, and conventional statistics. Results The most common category in the coded tweets was “personal opinions” (66.2%), followed by “informative” (24.7%), “jokes/ridicule” (4.8%), and “personal experiences” (4.3%). The daily average of ageist content was 18%, with the highest of 52.8% on March 11, 2020. Specifically, more than 1 in 10 (11.5%) tweets implied that the life of older adults is less valuable or downplayed the pandemic because it mostly harms older adults. A small proportion (4.6%) explicitly supported the idea of just isolating older adults. Almost three-quarters (72.9%) within “jokes/ridicule” targeted older adults, half of which were “death jokes.” Also, 14 themes were extracted, such as perceptions of lockdown and risk. A bivariate Granger causality test suggested that informative tweets regarding at-risk populations increased the prevalence of tweets that downplayed the pandemic. Discussion Ageist content in the context of COVID-19 was prevalent on Twitter. Information about COVID-19 on Twitter influenced public perceptions of risk and acceptable ways of controlling the pandemic. Finaly, public education on the risk of severe illness is needed to correct misperceptions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pressured cytotoxic T cell epitope strength among SARS-CoV-2 variants correlates with COVID-19 severity

Heterogeneity in susceptibility among individuals to COVID-19 has been evident through the pandemic worldwide. Cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) responses generated against pathogens in certain individuals are known to impose selection pressure on the pathogen, thus driving emergence of new variants. In this study, we probe the role played by host genetic heterogeneity in terms of HLA-genotypes in determining differential COVID-19 severity in patients. We use bioinformatic tools for CTL epitope prediction to identify epitopes under immune pressure. Using HLA-genotype data of COVID-19 patients from a local cohort, we observe that the recognition of pressured epitopes from the parent strain Wuhan-Hu-1 correlates with COVID-19 severity. We also identify and rank list HLA-alleles and epitopes that offer protectivity against severe disease in infected individuals. Finally, we shortlist a set of 6 pressured and protective epitopes that represent regions in the viral proteome that are under high immune pressure across SARS-CoV-2 variants. In conclusion, identification of such epitopes, defined by the distribution of HLA-genotypes among members of a population, could potentially aid in prediction of indigenous variants of SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

COVID-19 prevention at institutions of higher education, United States, 2020–2021: implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions

Background, In early 2020, following the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, institutions of higher education (IHEs) across the United States rapidly pivoted to online learning to reduce the risk of on-campus virus transmission. We explored IHEs’ use of this and other nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the subsequent pandemic-affected academic year 2020–2021. Methods, From December 2020 to June 2021, we collected publicly available data from official webpages of 847 IHEs, including all public (n = 547) and a stratified random sample of private four-year institutions (n = 300). Abstracted data included NPIs deployed during the academic year such as changes to the calendar, learning environment, housing, common areas, and dining; COVID-19 testing; and facemask protocols. We performed weighted analysis to assess congruence with the October 29, 2020, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidance for IHEs. For IHEs offering ≥50% of courses in person, we used weighted multivariable linear regression to explore the association between IHE characteristics and the summated number of implemented NPIs. Results, Overall, 20% of IHEs implemented all CDC-recommended NPIs. The most frequently utilized NPI was learning environment changes (91%), practiced as one or more of the following modalities: distance or hybrid learning opportunities (98%), 6-ft spacing (60%), and reduced class sizes (51%). Additionally, 88% of IHEs specified facemask protocols, 78% physically changed common areas, and 67% offered COVID-19 testing. Among the 33% of IHEs offering ≥50% of courses in person, having < 1000 students was associated with having implemented fewer NPIs than IHEs with ≥ 1000 students. Conclusions, Only 1 in 5 IHEs implemented all CDC recommendations, while a majority implemented a subset, most commonly changes to the classroom, facemask protocols, and COVID-19 testing. IHE enrollment size and location were associated with degree of NPI implementation. Additional research is needed to assess adherence to NPI implementation in IHE settings.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

COVID-19 through Adverse Outcome Pathways: Building networks to better understand the disease – 3rd CIAO AOP Design Workshop

On April 28-29, 2021, 50 scientists from different fields of expertise met for the 3rd online CIAO workshop. The CIAO project “Modelling the Pathogenesis of COVID-19 using the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework” aims at building a holistic assembly of the available scientific knowledge on COVID-19 using the AOP framework. An individual AOP depicts the disease progression from the initial contact with the SARS-CoV-2 virus through biological key events (KE) toward an adverse outcome such as respiratory distress, anosmia or multiorgan failure. Assembling the individual AOPs into a network highlights shared KEs as central biological nodes involved in multiple outcomes observed in COVID-19 patients. During the workshop, the KEs and AOPs established so far by the CIAO members were presented and posi­tioned on a timeline of the disease course. Modulating factors influencing the progression and severity of the disease were also addressed as well as factors beyond purely biological phenomena. CIAO relies on an interdisciplinary crowd­sourcing effort, therefore, approaches to expand the CIAO network by widening the crowd and reaching stakeholders were also discussed. To conclude the workshop, it was decided that the AOPs/KEs will be further consolidated, inte­grating virus variants and long COVID when relevant, while an outreach campaign will be launched to broaden the CIAO scientific crowd.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗