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Validation of the Sentinel-5 Precursor TROPOMI cloud data with Cloudnet, Aura OMI O 2 –O 2 , MODIS, and Suomi-NPP VIIRS

Accurate knowledge of cloud properties is essential to the measurement of atmospheric composition from space. In this work we assess the quality of the cloud data from three Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) TROPOMI cloud products: (i) S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CAL (Optical Cloud Recognition Algorithm/Retrieval of Cloud Information using Neural Networks;Clouds-As-Layers), (ii) S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CRB (Clouds-as-Reflecting Boundaries), and (iii) S5P FRESCO-S (Fast Retrieval Scheme for Clouds from Oxygen absorption bands – Sentinel). Target properties of this work are cloud-top height and cloud optical thickness (OCRA/ROCINN_CAL), cloud height (OCRA/ROCINN_CRB and FRESCO-S), and radiometric cloud fraction (all three algorithms). The analysis combines (i) the examination of cloud maps for artificial geographical patterns, (ii) the comparison to other satellite cloud data (MODIS, NPP-VIIRS, and OMI O2–O2), and (iii) ground-based validation with respect to correlative observations (30 April 2018 to 27 February 2020) from the Cloudnet network of ceilometers, lidars, and radars. Zonal mean latitudinal variation of S5P cloud properties is similar to that of other satellite data. S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CAL agrees well with NPP VIIRS cloud-top height and cloud optical thickness and with Cloudnet cloud-top height, especially for the low (mostly liquid) clouds. For the high clouds, S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CAL cloud-top height is below the cloud-top height of VIIRS and of Cloudnet, while its cloud optical thickness is higher than that of VIIRS. S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CRB and S5P FRESCO cloud height are well below the Cloudnet cloud mean height for the low clouds but match on average better with the Cloudnet cloud mean height for the higher clouds. As opposed to S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CRB and S5P FRESCO, S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CAL is well able to match the lowest CTH mode of the Cloudnet observations. Peculiar geographical patterns are identified in the cloud products and will be mitigated in future releases of the cloud data products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of energy dissipation and deposition in elastic bodies impacting at hypervelocities

A series of impact problems were analyzed using the Eulerian hydrocode CTH. The objective was to quantify the amount of energy dissipated locally by a projectile-infinite plate impact. A series of six impact problems were formulated such that the mass and speed of each projectile were varied in order to allow for increasing speed with constant kinetic energy. The properties and dimensions of the plate were the same for each projectile impact. The resulting response of the plate was analyzed for global Kinetic Energy, global momentum, and local maximum shear stress. The percentage of energy dissipated by the various hypervelocity impact phenomena appears as a relative change of shear stress at a point away from the impact in the plate.

Medina, David F.↗

The LDCE Particle Impact Experiment as flown on STS-46

Many materials and techniques have been developed by the authors to sample the flux of particles in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Though regular in-site sampling of the flux in LEO the materials and techniques have produced data which compliment the data now being amassed by the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) research activities. Orbital debris models have not been able to describe the flux of particles with d sub p less than or = 0.05 cm, because of the lack of data. Even though LDEF will provide a much needed baseline flux measurement, the continuous monitoring of micron and sub-micron size particles must be carried out. A flight experiment was conducted on the Space Shuttle as part of the LDCE payload to develop an understanding of the Spatial Density (concentration) as a function of size (mass) for particle sizes 1 x 10(exp 6) cm and larger. In addition to the enumeration of particle impacts, it is the intent of the experiment that hypervelocity particles be captured and returned intact. Measurements will be performed post flight to determine the flux density, diameters, and subsequent effects on various optical, thermal control and structural materials. In addition to these principal measurements, the Particle Impact Experiment (PIE) also provides a structure and sample holders for the exposure of passive material samples to the space environment, e.g., thermal cycling, and atomic oxygen, etc. The experiment will measure the optical property changes of mirrors and will provide the fluence of the ambient atomic oxygen environment to other payload experimenters. In order to augment the amount of material returned in a form which can be analyzed, the survivability of the experiment as well as the captured particles will be assessed. Using Sandia National Laboratory's hydrodynamic computer code CTH, hypervelocity impacts on the materials which comprise the experiments have been investigated and the progress of these studies are reported.

Maag, Carl R.↗

LDEF data: Comparisons with existing models

The relationship between the observed cratering impact damage on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) versus the existing models for both the natural environment of micrometeoroids and the man-made debris was investigated. Experimental data was provided by several LDEF Principal Investigators, Meteoroid and Debris Special Investigation Group (M&D SIG) members, and by the Kennedy Space Center Analysis Team (KSC A-Team) members. These data were collected from various aluminum materials around the LDEF satellite. A PC (personal computer) computer program, SPENV, was written which incorporates the existing models of the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) environment. This program calculates the expected number of impacts per unit area as functions of altitude, orbital inclination, time in orbit, and direction of the spacecraft surface relative to the velocity vector, for both micrometeoroids and man-made debris. Since both particle models are couched in terms of impact fluxes versus impactor particle size, and much of the LDEF data is in the form of crater production rates, scaling laws have been used to relate the two. Also many hydrodynamic impact computer simulations were conducted, using CTH, of various impact events, that identified certain modes of response, including simple metallic target cratering, perforations and delamination effects of coatings.

Coombs, Cassandra R.↗

Design of orbital debris shields for oblique hypervelocity impact

A new impact debris propagation code was written to link CTH simulations of space debris shield perforation to the Lagrangian finite element code DYNA3D, for space structure wall impact simulations. This software (DC3D) simulates debris cloud evolution using a nonlinear elastic-plastic deformable particle dynamics model, and renders computationally tractable the supercomputer simulation of oblique impacts on Whipple shield protected structures. Comparison of three dimensional, oblique impact simulations with experimental data shows good agreement over a range of velocities of interest in the design of orbital debris shielding. Source code developed during this research is provided on the enclosed floppy disk. An abstract based on the work described was submitted to the 1994 Hypervelocity Impact Symposium.

Fahrenthold, Eric P.↗

Dimensional scaling for impact cratering and perforation

POD Associates have revisited the issue of generic scaling laws able to adequately predict (within better than 20 percent) cratering in semi-infinite targets and perforations through finite thickness targets. The approach used was to apply physical logic for hydrodynamics in a consistent manner able to account for chunky-body impacts such that the only variables needed are those directly related to known material properties for both the impactor and target. The analyses were compared and verified versus CTH hydrodynamic code calculations and existing data. Comparisons with previous scaling laws were also performed to identify which (if any) were good for generic purposes. This paper is a short synopsis of the full report available through the NASA Langley Research Center, LDEF Science Office.

Watts, Alan J.↗

Interplanetary and Interstellar Dust Particles: Reentry Heating and Capture in Aerogel

Studies of interplanetary and interstellar dust can provide significant information on the evolution of the solar system or stars, respectively. However, for reliable analysis it is crucial to know how the particles have been modified during reentry (in the case of interplanetary dust particles, or [DP's) and impact into the capture medium. In the case of stratospheric capture, particles will be heated by atmospheric drag. Subsequent capture of the particles will result in heating, ablation, accretion of the capture medium and possible fragmentation. Modeling of these processes is a useful way of assessing their effects on the interpretation of the compositional data for these particles. Previous work on reentry heating has shown that heat diffusion alone cannot adequately account for temperature gradients observed in IDP's. In fact, for any reasonable thermal parameters, calculations show the particles to be nearly isothermal. Here we extend those studies to include phase transitions. These preliminary results are promising and show a significant temperature gradient for a 100 micron (diameter) particle. The actual capture of the particles in silica aerogel is being modeled using a comprehensive shock hydrodynamic code (called CTH). Various options of this code were investigated to attempt to make the most appropriate choice of methods of impact, equations of state, and processes of energy transfer from capture material to particle. The initial calculations with the code used only 'reasonable' estimates for the physical parameters of silica aerogel. Through the literature searches and personal contacts with the knowledgeable scientists, the best possible mechanical and thermal data have been made available for these computations.

Szydlik, Paul P.↗

Impact Cratering Calculations

We examined the von Mises and Mohr-Coulomb strength models with and without damage effects and developed a model for dilatancy. The models and results are given in O'Keefe et al. We found that by incorporating damage into the models that we could in a single integrated impact calculation, starting with the bolide in the atmosphere produce final crater profiles having the major features found in the field measurements. These features included a central uplift, an inner ring, circular terracing and faulting. This was accomplished with undamaged surface strengths of approximately 0.1 GPa and at depth strengths of approximately 1.0 GPa. We modeled the damage in geologic materials using a phenomenological approach, which coupled the Johnson-Cook damage model with the CTH code geologic strength model. The objective here was not to determine the distribution of fragment sizes, but rather to determine the effect of brecciated and comminuted material on the crater evolution, fault production, ejecta distribution, and final crater morphology.

Ahrens, Thomas J.↗

Improving Metallic Thermal Protection System Hypervelocity Impact Resistance Through Design of Experiments Approach

A design of experiments approach has been implemented using computational hypervelocity impact simulations to determine the most effective place to add mass to an existing metallic Thermal Protection System (TPS) to improve hypervelocity impact protection. Simulations were performed using axisymmetric models in CTH, a shock-physics code developed by Sandia National Laboratories, and validated by comparison with existing test data. The axisymmetric models were then used in a statistical sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of five design parameters on degree of hypervelocity particle dispersion. Several damage metrics were identified and evaluated. Damage metrics related to the extent of substructure damage were seen to produce misleading results, however damage metrics related to the degree of dispersion of the hypervelocity particle produced results that corresponded to physical intuition. Based on analysis of variance results it was concluded that the most effective way to increase hypervelocity impact resistance is to increase the thickness of the outer foil layer. Increasing the spacing between the outer surface and the substructure is also very effective at increasing dispersion.

Poteet, Carl C.↗

Mesoscale Computational Investigation of Shocked Heterogeneous Materials with Application to Large Impact Craters

The propagation of shock waves through target materials is strongly influenced by the presence of small-scale structure, fractures, physical and chemical heterogeneities. Pre-existing fractures often create craters that appear square in outline (e.g. Meteor Crater). Reverberations behind the shock from the presence of physical heterogeneity have been proposed as a mechanism for transient weakening of target materials. Pre-existing fractures can also affect melt generation. In this study, we are attempting to bridge the gap in numerical modeling between the micro-scale and the continuum, the so-called meso-scale. To accomplish this, we are developing a methodology to be used in the shock physics hydrocode (CTH) using Monte-Carlo-type methods to investigate the shock properties of heterogeneous materials. By comparing the results of numerical experiments at the micro-scale with experimental results and by using statistical techniques to evaluate the performance of simple constitutive models, we hope to embed the effect of physical heterogeneity into the field variables (pressure, stress, density, velocity) allowing us to directly imprint the effects of micro-scale heterogeneity at the continuum level without incurring high computational cost.

Crawford, D. A.↗

Cratering Equations for Zinc Orthotitanate Coated Aluminum

The final STS-125 servicing mission (SM4) to the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) in May of 2009 saw the return of the 2nd Wide Field Planetary Camera (WFPC2) aboard the shuttle Discovery. This hardware had been in service on HST since it was installed during the SM1 mission in December of 1993 yielding one of the longest low Earth orbit exposure times (15.4 years) of any returned space hardware. The WFPC2 is equipped with a 0.8 x 2.2 m radiator for thermal control of the camera electronics (Figure 1). The space facing surface of the 4.1 mm thick aluminum radiator is coated with Z93 zinc orthotitanate thermal control paint with a nominal thickness of 0.1 0.2 mm. Post flight inspections of the radiator panel revealed hundreds of micrometeoroid/orbital debris (MMOD) impact craters ranging in size from less than 300 to nearly 1000 microns in diameter. The Z93 paint exhibited large spall areas around the larger impact sites (Figure 2) and the craters observed in the 6061-T651 aluminum had a different shape than those observed in uncoated aluminum. Typical hypervelocity impact craters in aluminum have raised lips around the impact site. The craters in the HST radiator panel had suppressed crater lips, and in some cases multiple craters were present instead of a single individual crater. Humes and Kinard observed similar behavior after the WFPC1 post flight inspection and assumed the Z93 coating was acting like a bumper in a Whipple shield. Similar paint behavior (spall) was also observed by Bland2 during post flight inspection of the International Space Station (ISS) S-Band Antenna Structural Assembly (SASA) in 2008. The SASA, with similar Z93 coated aluminum, was inspected after nearly 4 years of exposure on the ISS. The multi-crater phenomena could be a function of the density, composition, or impact obliquity angle of the impacting particle. For instance, a micrometeoroid particle consisting of loosely bound grains of material could be responsible for creating the multiple craters. Samples were obtained from the HST largest craters for examination by electron microscope equipped with x-ray spectrometers to determine impactor source (micrometeoroid or orbital debris). In an attempt to estimate the MMOD particle diameters that produced these craters, this paper will present equations for spall diameter, crater depth and crater diameter in Z93 coated aluminum. The equations will be based on hypervelocity impact tests of Z93 painted aluminum at the NASA White Sands Test Facility. Equations inputs for velocities beyond the testable regime are expected from hydrocode simulations of Z93 coated aluminum using CTH and ANSYS AUTODYN.

Hyde, James↗

Hypervelocity Impact Initiation of Explosive Transfer Lines

The Gemini, Apollo and Space Shuttle spacecraft utilized explosive transfer lines (ETL) in a number of applications. In each case the ETL was located behind substantial structure and the risk of impact initiation by micrometeoroids and orbital debris was negligible. A current NASA program is considering an ETL to synchronize the actuation of pyrobolts to release 12 capture latches in a contingency. The space constraints require placing the ETL 50 mm below the 1 mm thick 2024-T72 Whipple shield. The proximity of the ETL to the thin shield prompted analysts at NASA to perform a scoping analysis with a finite-difference hydrocode to calculate impact parameters that would initiate the ETL. The results suggest testing is required and a 12 shot test program with surplused Shuttle ETL is scheduled for February 2012 at the NASA White Sands Test Facility. Explosive initiation models are essential to the analysis and one exists in the CTH library for HNS I, but not the HNS II used in the Shuttle 2.5 gr/ft rigid shielded mild detonating cord (SMDC). HNS II is less sensitive than HNS I so it is anticipated that these results using the HNS I model are conservative. Until the hypervelocity impact test results are available, the only check on the analysis was comparison with the Shuttle qualification test result that a 22 long bullet would not initiate the SMDC. This result was reproduced by the hydrocode simulation. Simulations of the direct impact of a 7 km/s aluminum ball, impacting at 0 degree angle of incidence, onto the SMDC resulted in a 1.5 mm diameter ball initiating the SMDC and 1.0 mm ball failing to initiate it. Where one 1.0 mm ball could not initiate the SMDC, a cluster of six 1.0 mm diameter aluminum balls striking simultaneously could. Thus the impact parameters that will result in initiating SMDC located behind a Whipple shield will depend on how well the shield fragments the projectile and spreads the fragments. An end-to-end simulation of the impact of an aluminum ball onto a Whipple shield covering SMDC is problematic due to the hydrocode fracture models. Regardless, two simulations were performed resulting in a 5 mm ball initiating the SMDC and a 4 mm ball failing to initiate the SMDC.

Bjorkman, Michael D.↗

Development of a Numerical Model of Hypervelocity Impact into a Pressurized Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel

As the outlook for space exploration becomes more ambitious and spacecraft travel deeper into space than ever before, it is increasingly important that propulsion systems perform reliably within the space environment. The increased reliability compels designers to increase design margin at the expense of system mass, which contrasts with the need to limit vehicle mass to maximize payload. Such are the factors that motivate the integration of high specific strength composite materials in the construction of pressure vessels commonly referred to as composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPV). The COPV consists of a metallic liner for the inner shell of the COPV that is stiff, negates fluid permeation and serves as the anchor for composite laminates or filaments, but the liner itself cannot contain the stresses from the pressurant it contains. The compo-site-fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) is wound around the liner using a combination of hoop (circumferential) and helical orientations. Careful consideration of wrap orientation allows the composite to evenly bear structural loading and creates the COPV's characteristic high strength to weight ratio. As the CFRP overwrap carries most of the stresses induced by pressurization, damage to the overwrap can affect mission duration, mission success and potentially cause loss-of-vehicle/loss-of-crew. For this reason, it is critical to establish a fundamental understanding of the mechanisms involved in the failure of a stressed composite such as that of the COPV. One of the greatest external threats to the integrity of a spacecraft's COPV is an impact from the meteoroid and orbital debris environments (MMOD). These impacts, even from submillimeter particles, generate extremely high stress states in the CFRP that can damage numerous fibers. As a result of this possibility, initial assumptions in survivability analysis for some human-rated NASA space-craft have assumed that any alteration of the vessel due to impact is considered a catastrophic failure. This assumption is conservative and made due to lack of knowledge on the level of allow-able damage to the composite overwrap that can be sustained and still allow successful completion of the mission. To quantify the allowable damage level to the composite overwrap involves assessing stress redistribution following damage as well as evaluating possible time-dependent mechanisms involved in the COPV response to an impact event. Limited published work in this subject has shown that COPV can withstand at least some level of damage due to high energy impacts. These observations have been confirmed and expanded upon in recent experimental research performed by NASA. This research has demonstrated that there is not only robustness in a COPV to compensate for CFRP damage, but has also identified two significant failure modes for pressurized COPV. The lowest threshold failure mode involves the perforation of the vessel, and the highest threshold failure mode is the catastrophic rupture. While both of these failure modes mean a loss of the COPV, system robustness affords some tolerance to the venting as opposed to the more catastrophic rupture. As a consequence, it is necessary to understand the conditions that result in the transition between these failure modes. The aforementioned experimental research has been performed in both the unpressurized and pressurized condition to identify the damage level that triggered the failure thresh-old. This COPV test program was sponsored by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), and tests were performed at NASA White Sands Test Facility (WSTF). Planning and coordination were provided by NASA JSC Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) group, and the COPVs were provided by the ISS Program. Unpressurized testing has been conducted at the pressure of the vacuum test chamber, while, the pressurized testing has been conducted at 290 +/- 10 bar (4,200  100 psi) using nitrogen as the pressurizing gas, which corresponds to the design pressure for the target COPV. In this research, spherical aluminum projectiles with varying diameter has been chosen as the impactor. For the unpressurized COPV, the dependence of penetration up to the dependence of hole size in the liner has been obtained as a function of impact conditions. For the pressurized research, the dependence of penetration up to rupture has been obtained as a function of im-pact conditions. Two representative post-test photographs of the failed COPV's from a nor-mal impact into the COPV surface are shown in Fig. 1. These images display the dramatic difference between failure modes, venting (Fig. 1a) and rupture (Fig. 1b). For venting, liner perforation, severed composite fibers/tows and ply delamination are commonly observed damage characteristics of this COPV failure mode. In the case of rupture, the COPV typically experienced a separation of its domed regions and severe break-up of the cylindrical region. Fully understanding the transition from venting to rupture experimentally is costly and potentially unachievable for conditions that cannot be generated in the laboratory. These shortcomings have motivated the performance of three-dimensional numerical simulations to expand the existing experimental database. These simulations have been carried out with the nonlinear-structural-dynamics, analysis-tool, CTH. A typical pressure contour plot from an impact simulation of an entire COPV is shown in Fig. 2. To generate the COPV stress state without initiating a shock wave, the pressure in the simulated COPV is ramped up to the final pressure over a millisecond prior to impact of the projectile with nitrogen gas. Figure 2a shows the system in this initial condition. After one millisecond, a projectile is initiated into the simulation and impacts the COPV. Figure 2b shows the system after this impact. In the figure, the onset of venting is represented as the change in pressure (μbar), red to green, at the perforation site. Also seen in the figure is the eroded projectile that had passed into the COPV vessel with the generated shock wave in the pressurant propagating just ahead of the material. In this paper, pertinent experimental details and the development of the material constitutive models necessary for this work along with the efforts to validate their use are dis-cussed. The simulation results are presented and compared with the NASA experimental observations. While work is on-going from this effort, early observations pertinent to the failure threshold are presented.

Garcia, M. A.↗

Status of NASA Research on Projectile Shape Effects-Impact Simulations

Numerical evaluation of a Whipple shield has yielded a ballistic model for cylindrical projectiles. A numerical model of a Whipple shield covered with a thermal-blanket that is representative of operational shields has been developed using CTH: The shield model has been evaluated against existing test data; The projectile model has been developed from preexisting models for graphite-epoxy materials. The model has been used to identify projectile characteristics at the ballistic limit for spherical and cylindrical projectiles; Considered normal impacts of the shield at 7 kilometers per second; Varied the angle between the axis-of-symmetry and velocity vector; Varied the length to the diameter ratio over a broad range. The results have been consolidated into a generalized model that can be adapted to existing spherical models

Miller, J.↗

Case Study of Meteoroid Fluence on a Mars Sample Return Mission

This paper presents results from an analysis to assess the fluence of meteoroids on the Mars Sample Return Campaign Micrometeoroid Protection System (MMPS) and probability of damage to the Earth Entry System Thermal Protection System (TPS). Results are presented for the mission Outbound trajectory from Earth to Mars. The MEM3 meteoroid environment model was used for the assessment. Results are presented showing the reduction in fluence on cube faces and on the MMPS that can be achieved by selection of an anti-velocity orientation of the MMPS. A methodology is presented that determines the cumulative fluence on the MMPS using the MEM3 meteoroid fluxes and the spacecraft attitude profile over the trajectory. Resulting distributions of fluence over impact velocity, angle, and mass are presented. The fluence results are used to establish velocity-angle scenarios for hydrocode simulation and to assess net damage fluence to the TPS. Example tables containing Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics Code (SPHC) simulation scenarios as well as hypothetical hydrocode simulation scenarios for illustration purposes are presented. The tables present the resulting net damaging fluence to the TPS for each scenario and the total across the scenarios. Additionally, examples of CTH hydrocode simulation are included, demonstrating their use for determining critical impactor across the impactor parameter space, and damage of impactors that penetrate the MMPS.

Micrometeoroid↗

Overview of Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Analysis Process for Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System

Introduction: Micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) risk analyses for the Mars Sample Return (MSR) Earth Entry System (EES) have been significantly more rigorous than previously flown missions because of its categorization as a Class V restricted return mission. This means the returned samples present significant concern for biogenic contamination. These analyses seek to determine if a micrometeoroid or orbital debris strike would result in loss of containment assurance and are summarized in the flowchart in Fig. 1. Methodology: The mission is considered in two MMOD phases: a pre-release phase where the EES is protected by a Micrometeoroid Protection System (MMPS) and a post-release phase called “free-flight” where the EES is exposed directly to the MMOD environment. These phases correspond to interplanetary cruise and imminent re-entry, respectively. To inform the MMPS design, a 30-shot high velocity impact testing (HVIT) series on candidate configurations at NASA White Sands Test Facility was completed in the summer of 2022. Sample post-shot images are shown in Fig 2 [1]. These data are used to baseline the MMPS design and to tune the hydrocode simulations. ALE3D, CTH, and SPHC are the hydrocodes that simulate physics of high-speed impacts [2]. Results generated with these populate a penetration depth versus energy space beyond the testable velocity regime of HVIT (~7 km/s). The penetration depth versus energy space data are used to define a critical projectile diameter function called a Ballistic Limit Equation (BLE), where the projectile “criticality” is determined by zone dependent failure criteria defined a-priori [3]. For example, the nose of the heatshield has a failure criterion of 50% TPS penetration, assigned because the landing loads are concentrated on that region and no substructure damage is permitted. The BLEs for each vehicle material zone are input into the BUMPER 3 code, along with the vehicle surface mesh and the corresponding space environment model, to calculate a probability of penetration or number of penetrations. The environment models, MEM3 for MM and ORDEM 3.2 for OD, simulate the meteoroid environment from 0.2 to 2 au based on the Grün flux equation, and the debris environment up to 40,000 km altitude from Earth surface, respectively [4,5]. Presentation Focus: The presentation or poster will present the results to-date focusing on the full risk analysis process flow seen in Fig. 1. Details on the derivation of the failure criteria will be discussed, along with HVIT results and how these influenced the MMPS configuration baseline decision. Further, results of hydrocode simulations will be presented and the tuning to HVIT outputs will be described. Finally, the strategies that direct the BLE formulation will be reviewed, specifically, for the EES elements that are most exposed to the MMOD environment.

mmod↗

The CHROMA Cloud-Top Pressure Retrieval Algorithm for the Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Ocean Ecosystem (PACE) Satellite Mission

This paper provides the theoretical basis and simulated retrievals for the Cloud Height Retrieval from O2 Molecular Absorption (CHROMA) algorithm. Simulations are performed for the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI), which is the primary payload on the forthcoming NASA Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission, and the Ocean Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) currently flying on the Sentinel 3 satellites. CHROMA is a Bayesian approach which simultaneously retrieves cloud optical thickness (COT), cloud-top pressure and height (CTP and CTH respectively), and (with a significant prior constraint) surface albedo. Simulated retrievals suggest that the sensor and algorithm should be able to meet the PACE mission goal for CTP error, which is ±60 mb for 65 % of opaque (COT ≥3) single-layer clouds on global average. CHROMA will provide pixel-level uncertainty estimates, which are demonstrated to have skill at telling low-error situations from high-error ones. CTP uncertainty estimates are well-calibrated in magnitude, although COT uncertainty is overestimated relative to observed errors. OLCI performance is found to be slightly better than OCI overall, demonstrating that it is a suitable proxy for the latter in advance of PACE's launch. CTP error is only weakly sensitive to correct cloud phase identification or assumed ice crystal habit/roughness. As with other similar algorithms, for simulated retrievals of multi-layer systems consisting of optically thin cirrus clouds above liquid clouds, retrieved height tends to be underestimated because the satellite signal is dominated by the optically thicker lower layer. Total (liquid plus ice) COT also becomes underestimated in these situations. However, retrieved CTP becomes closer to that of the upper ice layer for ice COT ≈3 or higher.

PACE↗

Using High-Resolution NSRDB Data to Evaluate Cloud Mask Forecast from WRF-Solar EPS

Validating spatiotemporal distributions of cloud forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is difficult as this requires high-quality cloud-property at significantly high spatial and temporal resolution over extended periods of time. Observations of cloud properties, such as cloud mask, cloud optical thickness, and cloud type, are vital for assessing the capability of NWP models to forecast various types of clouds. Using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), this research evaluates ensemble cloud-mask predictions from the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). From the WRF-Solar EPS, day-ahead solar forecasts for the contiguous United States (CONUS) for 2018 are simulated. Given the NSRDB data is accessible at a resolution of 2 km, we can calculate the cloud fraction across the 9-km grid of WRF-Solar EPS. This allows us to spatially assess the cloud-mask forecasts using two methods against the high-resolution NSRDB: (a) considering all 2-km NSRDB clouds in the forecast domain (EMAll), and (b) using a minimum cloud fraction threshold of 50% to designate a pixel as cloudy (EMP50). The low-resolution cloud masks from WRF-Solar EPS are evaluated directly against the cloud-resolving scale gridded observations from NSRDB using EMAll. With EMP50, we presume that scenes with less than 50% cloud cover from the 2-km NSRDB are clear. Thus, this assessment approach allows for a fair comparison with WRF-Solar EPS resolved to a 9-km grid. A method of point-by-point verification is used to evaluate dichotomous (yes/no) cloud mask predictions against the NSRDB. For each pixel of model extent, cloud frequency and traditional metrics (e.g., probability of detection, false alarm rate, and hit rate, etc.) are computed and compared with satellite-derived data sets. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is computed to measure the present capability of WRF-Solar EPS in representing various types of clouds, which are categorized using three levels of cloud top height (CTH) and cloud optical depth (COD) across entire CONUS. Preliminary results show that the WRF-Solar EPS provides MCF values ranging from 9% to 46%, 16% to 33%, and 8% to 27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively, for three CTHs. The model produces MCFs ranging from 27% to 46%, 13% to 34%, and 8% to 19% for thin, medium-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively, for three CODs. The presentation will include a detailed description of the current outcomes as well as potential future extensions. The evaluation approach established in this study is readily extensible to the evaluation of cloud predictions from different ensemble NWP models. In addition, the findings of the suggested evaluation technique aid in identifying model weaknesses and will ultimately lead to advances in WRF-Solar EPS's skill in predicting clouds and solar irradiance.

cloud mask forecast↗