Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “CYCLONE”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Abstract The frequency with which tropical cyclones (TCs) occur controls all other aspects of tropical cyclone risk since a storm that does not occur can do no harm. Yet this frequency is poorly understood. There is no accepted theory that explains the average number of TCs that occur each year on the Earth, nor how that number will change with global warming. Arguments based on global budgets of heat or moisture do not yet appear helpful, nor does a detailed understanding of the physical processes of TC genesis. Empirical indices that predict TC frequency as a function of large‐scale environmental variables can explain some of its relative variations in space and time, but not its absolute value. Global numerical models with horizontal grid spacings on the order of 25–50 km have allowed much improved simulations of TC activity, however. Many such models project a decrease in frequency with warming, but some project an increase. Idealized simulations, including those at higher resolutions, offer promise by allowing a systematic, deductive investigation of the roles of individual environmental factors. In addition to the larger‐scale environmental modulation of genesis likelihood, precursor disturbances, or “seeds”, may exert an independent influence on TC frequency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1990–2021

Abstract This study investigates global tropical cyclone (TC) activity trends from 1990 to 2021, a period marked by largely consistent observational platforms. Several global TC metrics have decreased during this period, with significant decreases in hurricane numbers and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Most of this decrease has been driven by significant downward trends in the western North Pacific. Globally, short‐lived named storms, 24‐hr intensification events of ≥50 kt day −1 , and TC‐related damage have increased significantly. The increase in short‐lived named storms is likely due to technological improvements, while rapidly intensifying TC increases may be fueled by higher potential intensity. Damage increases are largely due to increased coastal assets. The significant decrease in hurricane numbers and global ACE are likely due to the trend toward a more La Niña‐like base state from 1990 to 2021, favoring North Atlantic TC activity and suppressing North and South Pacific TC activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tropical Oceanic Influences on Observed Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Abstract The global tropical cyclone (TC) number has historically been relatively constant from year‐to‐year, however, the reason remains unknown. Furthermore, climate projections are inconclusive regarding future global TC frequency changes. Here, we investigated years in which observed global TC activity deviated from the mean and potential links to ocean drivers from 1980 to 2021. We found that the annual global number of named storm days and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) were significantly linked with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). La Niña and positive AMM are associated with the bottom percentiles of both TC metrics, and vice versa for El Niño and negative AMM. The ENSO Longitude Index explains variability in annual global named storm days and ACE as well as the Niño 3.4 index. This research reveals that reliable future projections of ENSO are necessary, but not sufficient, to understand future changes in global TC frequency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Isopycnal Submesoscale Stirring Crucially Sustaining Subsurface Chlorophyll Maximum in Ocean Cyclonic Eddies

Abstract Mesoscale and submesoscale processes have crucial impacts on ocean biogeochemistry, importantly enhancing the primary production in nutrient‐deficient ocean regions. Yet, the intricate biophysical interplay still holds mysteries. Using targeted high‐resolution in situ observations in the South China Sea, we reveal that isopycnal submesoscale stirring serves as the primary driver of vertical nutrient transport to sustain the dome‐shaped subsurface chlorophyll maximum (SCM) within a long‐lived cyclonic mesoscale eddy. Density surface doming at the eddy core increased light exposure for phytoplankton production, while along‐isopycnal submesoscale stirring disrupted the mesoscale coherence and drove significant vertical exchange of tracers. These physical processes play a crucial role in maintaining the elevated phytoplankton biomass in the eddy core. Our findings shed light on the universal mechanism of how mesoscale and submesoscale coupling enhances primary production in ocean cyclonic eddies, highlighting the pivotal role of submesoscale stirring in structuring marine ecosystems.

Cao, Haijin↗
DOE OSTI2024

A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall dataset

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 40,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with the observed spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale TC statistics. Specifically, along the coast, spatial variations in TC crossing probability and extreme winds upon landfall are well-reproduced by RAFT with R-squared values of 0.81 and 0.73, respectively. In summary, the synthetic TC database constructed with RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for the robust assessment of North Atlantic TC wind and rainfall risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases

Most current climate models predict that the equatorial Pacific will evolve under greenhouse gas–induced warming to a more El Niño-like state over the next several decades, with a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient and weakened atmospheric Walker circulation. Yet, observations over the last 50 y show the opposite trend, toward a more La Niña-like state. Recent research provides evidence that the discrepancy cannot be dismissed as due to internal variability but rather that the models are incorrectly simulating the equatorial Pacific response to greenhouse gas warming. This implies that projections of regional tropical cyclone activity may be incorrect as well, perhaps even in the direction of change, in ways that can be understood by analogy to historical El Niño and La Niña events: North Pacific tropical cyclone projections will be too active, North Atlantic ones not active enough, for example. Other perils, including severe convective storms and droughts, will also be projected erroneously. While it can be argued that these errors are transient, such that the models’ responses to greenhouse gases may be correct in equilibrium, the transient response is relevant for climate adaptation in the next several decades. Given the urgency of understanding regional patterns of climate risk in the near term, it would be desirable to develop projections that represent a broader range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios—including some in which recent historical trends continue—even if such projections cannot currently be produced using existing coupled earth system models.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pronounced Impact of Salinity on Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones

We show the importance of salinity for rapidly intensifying Atlantic tropical cyclones and demonstrate the potential for improved prediction of rapid intensification through the inclusion of salinity. Tropical Cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) is difficult to predict and poses a formidable threat to coastal populations. A warm upper ocean is well-known to favor RI, but the role of ocean salinity is less clear. This study shows a strong inverse relationship between salinity and TC RI in the eastern Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic due to near-surface freshening from the Amazon-Orinoco River system. In this region, rapidly intensifying TCs induce a much stronger surface enthalpy flux compared to more weakly intensifying storms, in part due to a reduction in SST cooling caused by salinity stratification. This reduction has a noticeable positive impact on TCs undergoing RI, but the impact of salinity on more weakly intensifying storms is insignificant. These statistical results are confirmed through experiments with an ocean mixed layer model, which show that the salinity-induced reduction in SST cold wakes increases significantly as the storm’s intensification rate increases. Currently, operational statistical-dynamical RI models do not use salinity as a predictor. Through experiments with a statistical RI prediction scheme, it is found that the inclusion of surface salinity significantly improves the RI detection skill, offering promise for improved operational RI prediction. Satellite surface salinity may be valuable for this purpose, given its global coverage and availability in near real-time.

Balaguru, Karthik↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Heavy Precipitation throughout the Entire Tropical Cyclone Life Cycle

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) and their associated precipitation can have devastating impacts on the areas affected, with outcomes ranging from mudslides to inland flash flooding. Previous studies have used a fixed radius around the TC to isolate storm-related precipitation. One previous study instead used a dynamic radius of 8 m s −1 winds, but the wind field of the TC can deteriorate or shift quickly after landfall or the onset of extratropical transition (ET). This study uses a dynamical radius derived from the 500-hPa geopotential height in and around the TC to define TC- and post-tropical cyclone (PTC)-related heavy precipitation, allowing for the analysis of precipitation with tropical origins after the official demise of the original TC. Climatologies are constructed, indicating a maximum in TC- and PTC-related heavy precipitation in the west North Pacific and a secondary maximum in the east North Pacific. PTC-related heavy precipitation accounts for as much as 40% of the annual heavy precipitation in the northwest portion of the west North Pacific basin and 3.13% of heavy precipitation globally. We observe that the major hurricane stage contributes on average 2.6% of the global TC- and PTC-related precipitation, while the less intense but more common tropical storm stages of the TC life cycle contribute 85.7% of this observed precipitation. This analysis framework can be further extended to assess model biases and climate projections of TC and PTC precipitation.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone tracks, intensity, and rainfall dataset

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales where their impacts are most prominent. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 50,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with observations for spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale distributions of TC translation speeds, lifetime maximum intensities and intensification rates. Also, spatial variations in coastal frequency and precipitation for landfalling TCs are well-reproduced in RAFT. In summary, the synthetic TC database based on RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for robust assessment of TC wind and rainfall risk for the US coastal regions and other areas affected by Atlantic TCs.

Xu, Wenwei↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the Influence of CAM5 Aerosol Configuration on Simulated Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic

This study examines the influence of prescribed and prognostic aerosol model configurations on the formation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic Ocean in Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The impact of aerosol parameterization is examined by investigating storm track density, genesis density, potential intensity, and genesis potential index. This work shows that both CAM5 configurations simulate reduced storm frequency when compared to observations and that differences in TC climatology between the model configurations can be explained by differences in the large-scale environment. The analysis shows that simulation with the prognostic aerosol parameterization scheme reasonably captures the observed interannual variability in tropical cyclones and aerosols (i.e., dust) in the North Atlantic, while simulation with the prescribed configuration (climatology) is less favorable. The correlation between dust and TCs in observations (i.e., reanalysis and satellite datasets) is shown to be negative, and this relationship was also found for the prognostic aerosol configuration despite an overall decrease in the frequency of TCs. This indicates that, to accurately replicate certain aspects of TC interannual variability, the aerosol configuration within CAM5 needs to account for the appropriate dust variability.

Huff, J. Jacob A. (ORCID:0000000329143817)↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Influence of African Easterly Waves on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Landfall in Large Ensembles

African easterly waves (AEWs) are an important precursor or “seed” for Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs), with 60%–80% of major hurricanes observed to originate from AEWs. However, climate model simulations indicate that AEWs are not necessary to maintain annual Atlantic TC frequency. Furthermore, small ensembles suggest that AEWs may impact the spatial distribution and landfall of Atlantic TCs. Here, we investigated the influence of AEWs on the spatial distribution of Atlantic TC tracks and landfall using 50-member ensembles of TC-permitting regional model simulations for five hurricane seasons characterized by different levels of TC activity. The control simulations are seasonal hindcasts in which AEWs were prescribed through the eastern lateral boundary condition using reanalysis. In the experiments, we suppressed AEWs by applying a 2–10 day filter to the eastern lateral boundary condition. In response to AEW suppression, we discovered statistically significant increases in Atlantic TC frequency (10%–26%) and landfall (16%–44%), a westward shift in TC genesis location and tracks with increased landfall over the Caribbean Islands, southwestern Gulf Coast, and southeastern US coast, and increases in mid-tropospheric relative humidity in the main development region. In addition, we evaluated TC genesis mechanisms in the absence of AEWs and found evidence that the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) intensified and extended northward, resulting in ITCZ wave-breaking that shed vortices which served as TC seeds. By uncovering the connections between TC seed types and the likelihood of TC landfall, this research can provide Atlantic coastal and island communities with useful information to prepare for TC impacts.

African easterly waves↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extreme waves in present and future climates using physics-based synthetic tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico.

Historically, extreme waves have been the most destructive force in the Gulf of Mexico, destroying and damaging thousands of offshore structures. The American Petroleum Institute has revised its design criteria for offshore platforms several times over the decades, as new data continues to become available, showing that data for our present climate is insufficient. This problem is exacerbated in a changing climate. By using synthetic physics-based tropical cyclones to force a third-generation wave model, we can generate adequate statistics for present and future climates. These simulations have been completed using Joule Supercomputer.

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2021

Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations

The characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over five TC basins lying within four Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains are examined for present and future climate conditions using a new ensemble of simulations completed as part of the CORDEX-CORE initiative with the regional climate model RegCM4. The simulations are conducted at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing and are driven by three CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The RegCM4 captures most features of the observed TC climatology, except for the TC intensity, which is thus statistically adjusted using a bias correction procedure to account for the effect of the coarse model resolution. The RegCM4 exhibits an improved simulation of several TC statistics compared to the driving GCMs, over most basins analyzed. In future climate conditions we find significant increases in TC frequency over the North Indian Ocean, the Northwest Pacific and Eastern Pacific regions, which are consistent with an increase in mid-tropospheric relative humidity. The North Atlantic and Australasia regions show a decrease in TC frequency, mostly associated with an increase in wind shear. We also find a consistent increase in future storm rainfall rates associated with TCs and in the frequency of the most intense TCs over most domains. Finally, our study shows robust responses often, but not always, in line with previous studies, still implying the presence of significant uncertainties in the projection of TC characteristics, which need to be addressed using large ensembles of simulations with high-resolution models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The atmospheric effect of aerosols on future tropical cyclone frequency and precipitation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model

This study uses experiments from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to compare the influence on tropical cyclone (TC) activity of: (i) the atmospheric effect of aerosols under specified sea-surface temperatures (SSTs); and (ii) the net effect of greenhouse gases (GhGs) (including changes in SSTs). The experiments were performed using the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5 emissions scenario with GhG-induced SST warming specified and atmospheric aerosol effects simulated but without explicit ocean coupling. Insignificant changes in global TC frequency are found in response to the atmospheric effect of future aerosols and GhGs, as significant regional responses in TC frequency counteract each other. Future GhGs contribute to more frequent TCs in the North Atlantic, and reductions over the Northwestern Pacific and Southern Indian Ocean. The atmospheric effect of future aerosols drives more frequent TCs over the Northwestern Pacific and reductions over the Northeast Pacific and North Atlantic. Along with increases in TC intensity, global TC precipitation (TCP) is projected to increase by 52.8% (14.1%/K) due to the combined effect of future aerosols and GhGs. Although both forcings contribute to TCP increases (14.7–19.3% from reduced aerosols alone and 28.1–33.3% from increased GhGs alone), they lead to different responses in the spatial structure of TCP. TCP increases preferentially in the inner-core due to increased GhGs, whereas TCP decreases in the inner-core and increases in the outer-bands in response to the atmospheric effects of decreased aerosols. These changes are distinct from those caused by aerosol-induced SST changes, which have been considered in other studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the relationship between eastern China aerosols and western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity

How aerosols affect the weather and climate system has received increasing attention. This study finds a significant negative correlation between March–May eastern China aerosol optical depth (AOD) and July–November western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) frequency during 2003–2020. This time period spans when several aerosol reanalyses are available and both Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer AOD retrievals are assimilated therein. Composite analyses and budget analyses of dynamical genesis potential indices indicate the importance of large-scale environmental factors, especially vertical velocity and vertical wind shear, associated with changes in AOD that in turn modulate changes in WNP TC frequency. Increased eastern China AOD may facilitate negative Pacific meridional mode development via modulation of the westerly jet, which then forces an anticyclonic circulation over the WNP basin. Increased AOD can also directly decrease the inter-hemispheric temperature differential and increases the intra-hemispheric temperature differential between the equator and the mid-latitudes, thus weakening ascending motion and enhancing vertical wind shear over the WNP, especially the southeastern portion of the basin. Further, all of these large-scale environment changes induced by increased eastern China AOD tend to suppress WNP TCs. This study highlights the potential influence of eastern China aerosol loadings on WNP TCs, thus improving our understanding of TC climate variability over the WNP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An assessment of tropical cyclones in North American $\mathrm{CORDEX}$ $\mathrm{WRF}$ simulations

This work presents an assessment of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the 25 km and 50 km resolution reanalysis-forced and baseline and future (RCP8.5) global climate model (GCM) forced simulations produced for the North American branch of the international Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A set of complementary 12 km resolution simulations produced as a part of a different project is also included in this assessment. Before examining the projections from the GCM-driven simulations, the ability of the simulations to minimally produce a realistic spatial distribution of historical TC occurrence was assessed in simulations forced by reanalysis and the three different GCMs used herein. Then, projections for occurrence, TC related mean precipitation and precipitation intensity, storm duration, the intensity measured by minimum pressure and maximum wind speed, storm size, and translation speed were examined. Several of these characteristics show little to no change in the future in trend or in distribution across the ensemble. However, many simulations suggest a westward shift or increase in TC occurrence over the East Pacific basin and a decrease in occurrence over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Increases (decreases) in total storm-related precipitation are projected where TC occurrence increases (decreases). TC precipitation intensity is found to increase in all simulations over the East Pacific, but projections are mixed over the North Atlantic. Finally, the ensemble projects a distribution shift towards more intense TC over the East Pacific, and a shift toward faster translation speeds over the North Atlantic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events

Extreme precipitation poses a major challenge for local governments, including the City and County of San Francisco, California, as flooding can damage and destroy infrastructure and property. As the climate continues to warm, reliable future precipitation projections are needed to provide the best possible information to decision makers. However, future changes in the magnitude of extreme precipitation are uncertain, as current state-of-the-art global climate models are typically run at relatively coarse horizontal resolutions that require the use of convective parameterization and have difficulty simulating observed extreme rainfall rates. Here, we performed ensembles of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate how five historically impactful extreme precipitation events over the San Francisco Bay Area could change if similar events occurred in future climates. We found that changes in storm-total precipitation depend strongly on storm type. Precipitation associated with an atmospheric river (AR) accompanied by an extratropical cyclone (ETC) is projected to increase at a rate exceeding (by up to 1.5 times) the theoretical Clausius Clapeyron scaling of 6–7% per °C warming. On the other hand, future precipitation changes are weak or negative for events characterized by an AR only, despite increases in precipitable water and integrated vapor transport that are similar to those of the co-occurring AR and ETC events. The differences in the sign of future precipitation change between AR-only events and co-occurring AR and ETC events is instead linked with changes in mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Given that the majority of observed ARs are associated with an ETC, this research has important implications for future precipitation impacts over the Bay Area, as it indicates that storm-total precipitation associated with the most common type of storm event may increase by up to 26–37% in 2100 relative to historical.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mid-century climate change impacts on tornado-producing tropical cyclones

Tornadoes are a co-occurring extreme that can be produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). These tornadoes can exacerbate the loss of life and property damage caused by the TC from which they were spawned. It is uncertain how the severe weather environments of landfalling TCs may change in a future climate and how this could impact tornado activity from TCs. In this study, we investigated four TCs that made landfall in the U.S. and produced large tornado outbreaks. We performed four-member ensembles of convective-allowing (4-km resolution) regional climate model simulations representing each TC in the historical climate and a mid-twenty-first century future climate. To identify potentially tornadic storms, or TC-tornado (TCT) surrogates, we used thresholds for three-hourly maximum updraft helicity and radar reflectivity, as tornadoes are not resolved in the model. We found that the ensemble-mean number of TCT-surrogates increased substantially (56–299%) in the future, supported by increases in most-unstable convective available potential energy, surface-to-700-hPa bulk wind shear, and 0–1-km storm-relative helicity in the tornado-producing region of the TCs. On the other hand, future changes in most-unstable convective inhibition had minimal influence on future TCT-surrogates. This provides robust evidence that tornado activity from TCs may increase in the future. Furthermore, TCT-surrogate frequency between 00Z and 09Z increased for three of the four cases, suggesting enhanced tornado activity at night, when people are asleep and more likely to miss warnings. All of these factors indicate that TC-tornadoes may become more frequent and a greater hazard in the future, compounding impacts from future increases in TC winds and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗