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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

Large-Scale Synoptic Systems and Fog During the C-FOG Field Experiment

Abstract The goal of this work is to summarize synoptic meteorological conditions during the Coastal Fog (C-FOG) field project that took place onshore and offshore of the Avalon Peninsula, Newfoundland, from 25 August until 8 October 2018. Visibility was measured at three locations at the Ferryland supersite that are about 1 km from each other, and at two additional sites 66 and 76 km to the north. Supporting meteorological measurements included surface winds, air temperature, humidity, pressure, radiation, cloud-base height, and atmospheric thermodynamic profiles from radiosonde soundings. Statistics are presented for surface measurements during fog events including turbulence kinetic energy, net longwave radiation, visibility, and precipitation. Eleven fog events are observed at Ferryland. Each significant fog event is related to a large-scale cyclonic system. The longest fog event is due to interaction of a northern deep low and a tropical cyclone. Fog occurrence is also examined across Atlantic Canada by including Sable Island, Yarmouth, Halifax, and Sydney. It is concluded that at Ferryland, all significant fog events occur under a cyclonic system while at Sable Island all significant fog events occur under both cyclonic and anticyclonic systems. The fog-formation mechanism involves cloud lowering and stratus broadening or only stratus broadening for the cyclonic systems while for the anticyclonic systems it is stratus broadening or radiation. Although widely cited as the main cause of fog in Atlantic Canada, advection fog is not found to be the primary or sole fog type in the events examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

North American energy system responses to natural gas price shocks

As of 2020, North American natural gas extraction and use in the electricity sector have both reached all-time highs. The combination of North America's increased reliance on natural gas with a potential disruption to the natural gas market has several energy security implications. Additionally, policymakers interested in economic resiliency will find this study's results useful for informing the implications of the energy sectors' long-term planning and investment decisions. This paper evaluates how both the electricity and natural gas sectors could respond to hypothetical gas price shocks under different system configurations. We impose unforeseen natural gas price shocks under reference and alternative configurations resulting from a renewable generation mandate or variations to renewable capacity costs. Results from several different models are presented for the electricity and natural gas sectors separately for Canada, Mexico, and the United States. Generally, the US becomes more (less) reliant on electricity imports from Canada given a high (low) gas price shock but increases (decreases) exports to Mexico. The renewable mandate is shown to buffer electricity price increases under high price shocks but price reductions under the low price shocks are dampened given less flexibility to take advantage of the low-priced natural gas. The United States is demonstrated to reduce natural gas production and net exports with high natural gas price shocks given a reduction in demand.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-GL1 Stannard Rock

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-GL1 Stannard Rock. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-GL1 Stannard Rock produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Stannard Rock is located 39 km from the nearest shore (Keweenaw Peninsula) in Lake Superior, 44 miles NNE of Marquette, Michigan, and 24 miles ESE of Manitou Island. The site is located on the historic Stannard Rock Lighthouse, which was completed in 1882. Eddy covariance instrumentation was installed in 2008 by a network of scientists from both US and Canada, eventually to be called the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN). The intent of GLEN has been to provide observations of over-lake meteorology and evaporation, improve forecasting of Great Lakes water levels, and support a wide variety of stakeholders, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, recreational boaters and commercial shipping, emergency management officials, and the Great Lakes research community. The eddy covariance station along with other ancillary meteorological instrumentation is located at an approximate elevation of 39.2 meters above mean lake water level. Meteorological data from the lighthouse are sent to the National Data Buoy Center, where they can be viewed in real-time at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=stdm4 Uncorrected half-hour fluxes were computed directly on the logger using a 30-minute block averaging period as high-frequency data were not available. The half hour flux measurements downloaded from the datalogger were post-processed with the following filters and corrections. Latent and sensible heat and carbon dioxide fluxes were corrected with 2-D coordinate rotation. Although the primary objective of data collection at Stannard Rock was to quantify the evaporative flux, additional preliminary measurements of the carbon dioxide concentration and flux from the LI-7500 are also included in this dataset but it is advised to use the carbon data with caution. Carbon data reported in this dataset includes turbulent fluxes of CO2 with no storage correction (FC, µmol m-2 s-1) and CO2 density in mole fraction of wet air (CO2), which was originally output on the datalogger as average CO2 density (mg m-2 s-1) and converted into µmol mol-1 using air temperature and pressure in post-processing. Webb, Pearman, and Leuning terms were applied to account for density fluctuations for water vapor and CO2. Sonic path length, high-frequency attenuation and sensor separation were accounted for according to Horst and Massman, and the oxygen absorption correction for the KH2O hygrometer was also applied. Latent and sensible heat fluxes were assumed to be unrealistic above an absolute value of 1000 W m-2 and were removed. Both carbon flux (FC) and carbon dioxide mole fraction in wet air (CO2) and were assumed to be unrealistic above 1000 µmol m-2 s-1 and 1000 µmol mol-1 respectively. Spikes in latent and sensible heat and carbon fluxes and densities (often due to periods of precipitation) were identified by computing the mean and standard deviation over a moving, overlapping window of 336 half-hours (7 days), similar to Shao et al., and were removed when the flux was more than 1.5 standard deviations from the moving window’s mean. While Vickers and Mahrt use a threshold of 3.5 standard deviations from the mean, a conservative value of 1.5 was chosen due to the noisy nature of over-lake data at this particular site. This process was repeated twice for latent and sensible heat, and carbon dioxide fluxes and densities and therefore it is possible that some real, realistic data was filtered out in this process. No detrending was performed. As per AmeriFlux standards, no friction velocity (USTAR, m s-1) filtering was performed.

Spence, Chris [Environment and Climate Change Cana↗

AmeriFlux CA-GL3 Long Point

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-GL3 Long Point. Site Description - Long Point Lighthouse is located at the end of Long Point on Lake Erie. The eddy covariance instrumentation is located on the historic lighthouse, completed in 1916, and instrumented with eddy covariance data in 2012 by a network of scientists from both US and Canada (eventually to be called the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN)). The intent of GLEN has been to provide observations of over-lake meteorology and evaporation, improve forecasting of Great Lakes water levels, and support a wide variety of stakeholders, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, recreational boaters and commercial shipping, emergency management officials, and the Great Lakes research community.

Spence, Chris [Environment and Climate Change Cana↗

AmeriFlux CA-GL4 Nine Mile Lighthouse

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-GL4 Nine Mile Lighthouse. Site Description - Nine Mile Lighthouse is located at the south end of Simcoe Island on Lake Ontario. The eddy covariance instrumentation is located on the historic lighthouse, built in 1833, and instrumented with eddy covariance data in 2016 by a network of scientists from both US and Canada (eventually to be called the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN)). The intent of GLEN has been to provide observations of over-lake meteorology and evaporation, improve forecasting of Great Lakes water levels, and support a wide variety of stakeholders, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, recreational boaters and commercial shipping, emergency management officials, and the Great Lakes research community.

Spence, Chris [Environment and Climate Change Cana↗

Remediation of Temporary Storage Sites in Support of the Port Hope Area Initiative - 20295

The Port Hope Area Initiative is a community-based solution for the long-term management of historic low level radioactive waste (LLRW) resulting from 60 years of uranium and radium processing operations in the Town of Port Hope which is located in Ontario, Canada. The Eldorado refinery, on the north shore of Lake Ontario, began refining radium-226 from pitchblende ore, later transitioning to the refining of uranium. Through the history of the operation, LLRW was deposited throughout the town of Port Hope as a result of fugitive emissions from the plant and/or through the re-use of process residues as building material and backfill. Historical clean-up activities conducted in the late 1970's involved the remediation of approximately 400 properties and the relocation of 100,000 cubic metres of contaminated soil to a disposal facility in Chalk River operated by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL). Owing to space limitations at that disposal facility, any LLRW identified through construction monitoring since that time has been stored in the community at three temporary storage sites located throughout the town. These include: the Centre Pier mound that contained approximately of 19,800 m{sup 3} of LLRW-impacted soil that originated from the construction of a new water treatment plant; two mounds located at a licensed storage facility containing LLRW obtained from residential clean-up activities (11,000 m{sup 3}); and a small pad adjacent to the municipal sewage treatment plant containing 2200 m{sup 3} of LLRW-containing sludge. With the construction of a new long-term waste management facility (LTWMF) that has been designed to house all of the LLRW identified within Port Hope, the three sites were early candidates for remediation. The clean-up of the three temporary storage sites was a significant milestone for the Port Hope Area Initiative. After a decade of planning and consultation, this work represents the first sites in the municipality to be remediated with the waste being safety removed and transferred to the newly constructed LTWMF. This paper discusses the challenges associated with the clean-up activities for these three sites and the strategies employed to address those challenges. These included weather-related challenges, owing to the seasons over which the work was conducted as well as those associated with working within a closely-knit community. Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL), working on behalf of the federal government, has worked diligently to develop a positive and trusting relationship with the community. Consequently, the successful execution of this project needed to be sensitive to, and respectful of the needs of the community. In addition to the usual Health, Safety and Environment training, project staff received community awareness training that spoke to the history of this community-based initiative and the expected behavior when working within the community. Transportation routes were defined based on safety and the need to minimize disruption to local traffic while haul-times where scheduled around school bus hours to enhance public safety. The successful completion of this first of many remediation projects to be completed under the Port Hope Area Initiative reflected years of careful planning. Nevertheless, there were a number of 'lessons learned' that have been applied on other ongoing projects be completed under the Port Hope Area Initiative. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE)

Convective clouds play an important role in Earth’s climate system and are a known source of extreme weather. Gaps in our understanding of convective vertical motions, microphysics, and precipitation across a full range of aerosol and meteorological regimes continue to limit our ability to predict the occurrence and intensity of these cloud systems. To improve predictability, the National Science Foundation (NSF) sponsored a large field experiment entitled “Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE).” ESCAPE took place between 30 May and 30 September 2022 in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, because this area frequently experiences isolated deep convection that interacts with the region’s mesoscale circulations and its range of aerosol conditions. ESCAPE focused on collecting observations of isolated deep convection through innovative sampling and developing novel analysis techniques. This included the deployment of two research aircraft, the National Research Council of Canada Convair-580 and the Stratton Park Engineering Company Learjet, which combined conducted 24 research flights from 30 May to 17 June. On the ground, three mobile X-band radars and one mobile Doppler lidar truck equipped with soundings were deployed from 30 May to 28 June. From 1 August to 30 September 2022, a dual-polarization C-band radar was deployed and operated using a novel, multisensor agile adaptive sampling strategy to track the entire life cycle of isolated convective clouds. Analysis of the ESCAPE observations has already yielded preliminary findings on how aerosols and environmental conditions impact the convective life cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Viral niche-partitioning: comparative genomics of giant viruses across environmental gradients in a high Arctic freshwater-saltwater lake

Giant viruses (GVs; Nucleocytoviricota) impact the biology and ecology of a wide range of eukaryotic hosts, with implications for global biogeochemical cycles. Here, we investigated GV niche separation in highly stratified Lake A at the northern coast of Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada. This lake is composed of a layer of ice-covered freshwater that overlies saltwater derived from the ancient Arctic Ocean, and it therefore provides a broad gradient of environmental conditions and ecological habitats, each with a distinct protist community and rich assemblages of associated GVs. The upper layer (mixolimnion) had measurable light and oxygen, and contained diverse GVs linked to photosynthetic protists, indicating adaptation to surface biotic and abiotic conditions. In contrast, the saline lower layer (monimolimnion), lacking oxygen and light, hosted GVs associated with predicted heterotrophic protists, some of which are known for a predatory lifestyle, and with several viral genes suggesting adaptation to deep-water anaerobic conditions. Our observations underscore the coupling between physical and chemical gradients, microeukaryotes and their associated GVs in Lake A, and provide insight into the potential for GVs to directly and indirectly impact host metabolism. There were similarities between the genetic composition of GVs and the metabolic processes of their potential hosts, implying co-evolution and niche-adaptation within the lake habitats. Notably, we found a greater presence of viral rhodopsins in deeper water layers, suggesting an evolutionary relationship with potential hosts capable of supplementing their energetic needs to thrive in low energy, anoxic conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Marine Aerosol to Refinery Emissions: Transport and Evolution of CCN in the Houston Metropolitan Area and Their Impact on Cloud Formation

The Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) campaign aimed to untangle the impacts of contrasting aerosol sources on cloud microphysical properties within deep convective cells using airborne observations with the National Research Council Canada (NRC) Convair CV‐580 research aircraft. Horizontal and vertical gradients of aerosol number size distributions, total aerosol concentrations and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) spectra were measured in the lower troposphere to quantify the impact of different aerosol sources on aerosol‐cloud interactions. This study focuses on a research flight dedicated to characterizing the aerosol and CCN properties in the Houston Metropolitan region and identifies five main categories of aerosols based on characteristics of aerosol number size distributions, their CCN properties and meteorological conditions. These categories encompassed more than two orders of magnitude differences in aerosol and CCN concentrations, yet their hygroscopic properties remained similar. Aerosol number size distributions and effective hygroscopicity parameters are used to generate continuous CCN spectra to represent the major aerosol types. The different CCN spectra are then incorporated into a 1‐D aerosol‐cloud parcel model using a large range of updrafts selected in the range of those observed during the ESCAPE campaign to assess the impact of the major aerosol sources in Houston on deep convective cloud microphysical properties.

aerosol-cloud interactions↗

Laser resonance ionization spectroscopy of thorium

High-lying Rydberg and autoionizing (AI) states of thorium (Th) have been studied via resonance laser ionization spectroscopy at both TRIUMF Canada’s particle accelerator center and Oak Ridge National Lab (ORNL). Multiple Rydberg series converging to the ionization potential (IP) were observed via different stepwise laser excitation schemes and were assigned to be the 6d 2 7s ( 4 F 3/2 ) np, nd, and nf series. Analysis of these series enabled the determination of the IP to be 50 868.735(54) cm −1 , which improved the precision by two orders of magnitude over the current adopted NIST value of 50 867(2) cm −1 . Additionally, four AI Rydberg series were identified and assigned to nf and nd series converging to the 6d 2 7s 4 F 5/2 and 6d7s 2 2 D 3/2 metastable states of Th + . In conclusion, the measured energies of the Rydberg and AI Rydberg states are reported, and observed perturbations within the series are discussed.

Rydberg series↗

CCUS deployment under the U.S. 45Q tax credit and adaptation by other North American Governments: MARKAL modeling results

In 2018, U.S. Congress passed the Bipartisan Budget Act, known as 45Q [H.R. 3761], expanding the corporate income tax credit for carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS). 45Q provides a performance-based tax credit for carbon capture projects of $30/ton of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) (tCO 2 ) for anthropogenic CO 2 going to enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and $50/tCO 2 if going to straight storage. There are several conditions; for example, there is a 12-year time limit on tax credits for a new plant that commences construction before 2024 [H.R. 3761]. Here, this study aims to test the incremental impact of the 45Q tax credits on CCUS deployment, CO 2 -EOR, and power generation technological changes for North American (the United States, Canada, and Mexico) long-term energy system development. The scenario results show that offering a 12-year CO 2 storage subsidy provides the motivation needed for CCUS investment during the 12-year subsidy period, and the benefits of such investment can be sustained over the 40-year lifetime under CO 2 taxation. The modeling results show that carbon capture generation replaces uncontrolled fossil-fueled power, not new or existing renewables, so power generation and corresponding emission reductions from renewables remain unaffected by the availability of 45Q in the United States. Our scenario with CCUS technological learning indicates that CCUS could play a very important role under stringent environmental constraints. Thus, accelerated support and funding for the large-scale CCUS demonstrations is important for the execution of both short- and long-term climate mitigation goals. Given the significant role of the United States, Canada, and Mexico on the world energy system, our results represent an important contribution to the study of global energy trends.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Impact of Measured Spectrum Variation on Solar Photovoltaic Efficiencies Worldwide

In photovoltaic power ratings, a single solar spectrum, AM1.5, is the de facto standard for record laboratory efficiencies, commercial module specifications, and performance ratios of solar power plants. More detailed energy analysis that accounts for local spectral irradiance, along with temperature and broadband irradiance, reduces forecast errors to expand the grid utility of solar energy. Here, ground-level measurements of spectral irradiance collected worldwide have been pooled to provide a sampling of geographic, seasonal, and diurnal variation. Applied to nine solar cell types, the resulting divergence in solar cell efficiencies illustrates that a single spectrum is insufficient for comparisons of cells with different spectral responses. Cells with two or more junctions tend to have efficiencies below that under the standard spectrum. Silicon exhibits the least spectral sensitivity: relative weekly site variation ranges from 1% in Lima, Peru to 14% in Edmonton, Canada.

energy yield↗

Characteristics of Electron Precipitation During 40 Energetic Electron Injections Inferred via Subionospheric VLF Signal Propagation

Energetic electron injection events are associated with energetic electron precipitation (EEP) through possible resonant wave-particle interactions. Previous studies confirm the impacts of injection-driven precipitation on observed amplitude/phase of subionospheric VLF (very low frequency) signals transmitted from distant artificial transmitters. Currently, there are substantial uncertainties on precipitation characteristics and flux during injection events. In this work we study 40 injection events selected by Van Allen Probes particle data to investigate the changes in amplitude and phase of VLF signals at ground receivers across Canada during particle injection events. We model the ionospheric effect of the EEP flux to find its impact on VLF propagation and characterize the injection events. Typically, we find a clear phase advance of ~40° in the received VLF signal at Fort Smith (Canada, L = 8) transmitted from U.S. Navy communication transmitter NAA at Maine (USA). Comparing to other VLF transmitter-receiver paths in North America leads us to conclude that effects are only seen on paths with adequately large range >>200 km) through L > 7. Modeling the VLF phase change indicates that in the majority of events (>90%), less than 10% of the strong scattering limit inferred from particle flux measurements at the Van Allen Probes is required to obtain the observed VLF phase signature. The median precipitating flux during energetic particle injections is less than 4 × 10 6 el/cm 2 s sr (<10% of the strong scattering rate) for electrons above ~40 keV extracted from trapped particles energy spectrum. This implies that strong scattering is not typical for these 40 selected energetic electron injection events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Future Changes in Snowpack, Snowmelt, and Runoff Potential Extremes Over North America

Snowpack and snowmelt-driven extreme events (e.g., floods) have large societal consequences including infrastructure failures. However, it is not well understood how projected changes in the snow-related extremes differ across North America. Using dynamically downscaled regional climate model (RCM) simulations, we found that the magnitudes of extreme snow water equivalent, snowmelt, and runoff potential (RP; snowmelt plus precipitation) decrease by 72%, 73%, and 45%, respectively, over the continental United States and southern Canada but increase by up to 8%, 53%, and 41% in Alaska and northern Canada by the late 21st century. In California and the Pacific Northwest, there is a notable increase in extreme RP by 21% contrary to a decrease in snowmelt by 31% by the late century. These regions could be vulnerable to larger rain-on-snow floods in a warmer climate. Regions with a large variability among RCM ensembles are identified, which require further investigation to reduce the regional uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

North American boreal forests are a large carbon source due to wildfires from 1986 to 2016

Wildfires are a major disturbance to forest carbon (C) balance through both immediate combustion emissions and post-fire ecosystem dynamics. Here we used a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to simulate C budget in Alaska and Canada during 1986–2016, as impacted by fire disturbances. We extracted the data of difference Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) for fires from Landsat TM/ETM imagery and estimated the proportion of vegetation and soil C combustion. We observed that the region was a C source of 2.74 Pg C during the 31-year period. The observed C loss, 57.1 Tg C year -1 , was attributed to fire emissions, overwhelming the net ecosystem production (1.9 Tg C year -1 ) in the region. Our simulated direct emissions for Alaska and Canada are within the range of field measurements and other model estimates. As burn severity increased, combustion emission tended to switch from vegetation origin towards soil origin. When dNBR is below 300, fires increase soil temperature and decrease soil moisture and thus, enhance soil respiration. However, the post-fire soil respiration decreases for moderate or high burn severity. The proportion of post-fire soil emission in total emissions increased with burn severity. Net nitrogen mineralization gradually recovered after fire, enhancing net primary production. Net ecosystem production recovered fast under higher burn severities. The impact of fire disturbance on the C balance of northern ecosystems and the associated uncertainties can be better characterized with long-term, prior-, during- and post-disturbance data across the geospatial spectrum. Our findings suggest that the regional source of carbon to the atmosphere will persist if the observed forest wildfire occurrence and severity continues into the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CP2K: An Electronic Structure and Molecular Dynamics Software Package - Quickstep: Efficient and Accurate Electronic Structure Calculations

CP2K is an open source electronic structure and molecular dynamics software package to perform atomistic simulations of solid-state, liquid, molecular and biological systems. It is especially aimed at massively-parallel and linear-scaling electronic structure methods and state-of-the-art ab-initio molecular dynamics simulations. Excellent performance for electronic structure calculations is achieved using novel algorithms implemented for modern high-performance computing systems. This review revisits the main capabilities of CP2K to perform efficient and accurate electronic structure simulations. The emphasis is put on density functional theory and multiple post-Hartree-Fock methods using the Gaussian and plane wave approach and its augmented all-electron extension. TDK has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No. 716142). VRR has been supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation in the form of Ambizione grant No. PZ00P2 174227 and RZK by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) through Discovery Grants (RGPIN-2016-0505). GKS and CJM are supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Division of Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and Biosciences. UK based work was funded under the embedded CSE programme of the ARCHER UK National Supercomputing Service (http://www.archer.ac.uk), grants eCSE03-011, eCSE06-6, eCSE08-9, eCSE13-17 and the EPSRC (EP/P022235/1) grant “Surface and Interface Toolkit for the Materials Chemistry Community". Computational resources were provided by the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre (CSCS) and Compute Canada. The generous allocation of computing time on the FPGA-based supercomputer “Noctua" at PC2 is kindly acknowledged.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Active layer thickness as a function of soil water content

Active layer thickness (ALT) is a critical metric for monitoring permafrost. How soil moisture influences ALT depends on two competing hypotheses: (a) increased soil moisture increases the latent heat of fusion for thaw, resulting in shallower active layers, and (b) increased soil moisture increases soil thermal conductivity, resulting in deeper active layers. To investigate their relative influence on thaw depth, we analyzed the Field Measurements of Soil Moisture and Active Layer Thickness (SMALT) in Alaska and Canada dataset, consisting of thousands of measurements of thaw depth and soil moisture collected at dozens of sites across Alaska and Canada as part of NASA’s Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE). As bulk volumetric water content (VWC) integrated over the entire active layer increases, ALT decreases, supporting the latent heat hypothesis. However, as VWC in the top 12 cm of soil increases, ALT increases, supporting the thermal conductivity hypothesis. Regional temperature variations determine the baseline thaw depth while precipitation may influence the sensitivity of ALT to changes in VWC. Soil latent heat dominates over thermal conductivity in determining ALT, and the effect of bulk VWC on ALT appears consistent across sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the basic reproduction number and underestimated fraction of Mpox cases worldwide at the onset of the outbreak

In 2022, there was a global resurgence of mpox, with different clinical-epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks. Sexual contact was hypothesized as the primary transmission route, and the community of men having sex with men (MSM) was disproportionately affected. Because of the stigma associated with sexually transmitted infections, the real burden of mpox could be masked. We quantified the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) and the underestimated fraction of mpox cases in 16 countries, from the onset of the outbreak until early September 2022, using Bayesian inference and a compartmentalized, risk-structured (high-/low-risk populations) and two-route (sexual/non-sexual transmission) mathematical model. Machine learning (ML) was harnessed to identify underestimation determinants. Estimated R 0 ranged between 1.37 (Canada) and 3.68 (Germany). The underestimation rates for the high- and low-risk populations varied between 25–93% and 65–85%, respectively. The estimated total number of mpox cases, relative to the reported cases, is highest in Colombia (3.60) and lowest in Canada (1.08). In the ML analysis, two clusters of countries could be identified, differing in terms of attitudes towards the 2SLGBTQIAP+ community and the importance of religion. Given the substantial mpox underestimation, surveillance should be enhanced, and country-specific campaigns against the stigmatization of MSM should be organized, leveraging community-based interventions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗