From Monitoring Microbes in International Space Station to Building Houses on Mars
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Centennial Challenges↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Architectural Association Mars Symposium Keynote Speech
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Mars↗
Lunar Regolith Excavation Competition
The Lunar Regolith Excavation Competition is a new competition that needs graphics, logos, rules, as well as an arena. Although this is the first year of the competition, the competition is modeled after an existing competition, the Centennial Lunar Excavator Challenge. This competition however is aimed at college students. This makes the challenge identifying key aspects of the original competition and modeling them to fit into an easier task, and creating exciting advertisement that helps encourage participation. By using a youth focus group, young insight, as well as guiding advice from experts in the field, hopefully an arena can be designed and built, rules can be molded and created to fit, and alluring graphics can be printed to bring about a successful first year of the Lunar Regolith Excavation Competition.
Liles, Cassandra↗
Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions
We address the challenge, due to sparse observational records, of investigating long-term changes in the storm surge climate globally. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database and assess trends in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm surge events at 320 tide gauges across the globe from 1930, 1950, and 1980 to present. Before calculating trends, we perform change point analysis to identify and remove data where inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalysis products could lead to spurious trends in the storm surge data. Even after removing unreliable data, the database still extends existing storm surge records by several decades for most of the tide gauges. Storm surges derived from the centennial 20CR and ERA-20C atmospheric reanalyses show consistently significant positive trends along the southern North Sea and the Kattegat Bay regions during the periods from 1930 and 1950 onwards and negative trends since 1980 period. When comparing all five storm surge reconstructions and observations for the overlapping 1980–2010 period we find overall good agreement, but distinct differences along some coastlines, such as the Bay of Biscay and Australia. We also assess changes in the frequency of extreme surges and find that the number of annual exceedances above the 95th percentile has increased since 1930 and 1950 in several regions such as Western Europe, Kattegat Bay, and the US East Coast.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
TSIS-2 Mission Status
The Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor – 2 (TSIS-2) is a Class D free-flyer mission under development by NASA to provide continuity with TSIS-1 in the measurement of total and spectral solar irradiance, with a planned launch in 2025. Two instruments—the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) and the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM)—are provided by the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) of the University of Colorado. The spacecraft is provided by General Atomics (GA) of Centennial, CO. LASP and GA both provide elements of the ground system. Launch will be on a Falcon9 rocket provided by SpaceX. The status of the project development is described, including some challenges that the team has faced in reaching this point.
TSIS-2↗
Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction
Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. In this perspective we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Technical Education Outreach in Materials Science and Technology Based on NASA's Materials Research
The grant NAG-1 -2125, Technical Education Outreach in Materials Science and Technology, based on NASA s Materials Research, involves collaborative effort among the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s Langley Research Center (NASA-LaRC), Norfolk State University (NSU), national research centers, private industry, technical societies, colleges and universities. The collaboration aims to strengthen math, science and technology education by providing outreach related to materials science and technology (MST). The goal of the project is to transfer new developments from LaRC s Center for Excellence for Structures and Materials and other NASA materials research into technical education across the nation to provide educational outreach and strengthen technical education. To achieve this goal we are employing two main strategies: 1) development of the gateway website and 2) using the National Educators Workshop: Update in Engineering Materials, Science and Technology (NEW:Updates). We have also participated in a number of national projects, presented talks at technical meetings and published articles aimed at improving k-12 technical education. Through the three years of this project the NSU team developed the successful MST-Online site and continued to upgrade and update it as our limited resources permitted. Three annual NEW:Updates conducted from 2000 though 2002 overcame the challenges presented first by the September 11,2001 terrorist attacks and the slow U.S. economy and still managed to conduct very effective workshops and expand our outreach efforts. Plans began on NEW:Update 2003 to be hosted by NASA Langley as a part of the celebration of the Centennial of Controlled Flight.
Jacobs, James A.↗
Simple Hybrid Sea Ice Nudging Method for Improving Control Over Partitioning of Sea Ice Concentration and Thickness
Abstract To assess the effect of ocean‐atmosphere coupling in the climate response to forced sea ice loss, the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project protocol includes centennial coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model simulations with imposed sea ice loss. The protocol, which specifies sea ice concentration and thickness distribution targets, does not prescribe a method for achieving them. Although different methods for imposing sea ice loss (or growth) in models have been documented, testing of the method‐dependence of the resulting climate responses has been limited. Achieving the targeted sea ice state has proven to be challenging using the so‐called ghost‐flux nudging method, which induces ice melt from below, as this method does not constrain the partitioning between thickness and concentration. We propose, describe and test a simple method that combines the advantages of direct sea ice nudging and ghost‐flux nudging. The hybrid nudging method better captures the partitioning between thickness and concentration while conserving total water content. We document how this novel sea ice constraining method reaches specific targets, enhances surface turbulent heat flux responses to sea ice loss, and induces tropospheric warming for both polar regions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Microbial Evolution Drives Adaptation of Substrate Degradation on Decadal to Centennial Time Scales Relevant to Global Change
ABSTRACT Understanding microbial adaptation is crucial for predicting how soil carbon dynamics and global biogeochemical cycles will respond to climate change. This study employs the DEMENT model of microbial decomposition, along with empirical mutation and dispersal rates, to explore the roles of mutation and dispersal in the adaptation of soil microbial populations to shifts in litter chemistry, changes that are anticipated with climate‐driven vegetation dynamics. Following a change in litter chemistry, mutation generally allows for a higher rate of litter decomposition than dispersal, especially when dispersal predominantly introduces genotypes already present in the population. These findings challenge the common idea that mutation rates are too low to affect ecosystem processes on ecological timescales. These results demonstrate that evolutionary processes, such as mutation, can help maintain ecosystem functioning as the climate changes.
Abs, Elsa↗
Comparing Proxy and Model Estimates of Hydroclimate Variability and Change over the Common Era
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations.We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.
Common Era↗
Earth System Reanalysis in Support of Climate Model Improvements
Recent climate model developments, established through increased model resolution, have led to substantial improvements in model simulations of the time-evolving, coupled Earth system and its subcomponents. However, regardless of resolution, climate models will always produce climate features and variability that differ from the real world and will be prone to biases. This is due to many remaining uncertainties, such as in parametric and structural model uncertainty, in the initial conditions prescribed, and in the prescribed (scenario) forcing which varies on decadal to centennial timescales. Further model improvements are expected to arise specifically from improved representation of physical processes realized through model-data fusion. This will create an unprecedented opportunity to better exploit a large array of Earth observations, from in situ measurements to weather radars and satellite observations, as the resolved scales of the models approach those of the observations. For this, climate DA will be the central tool to bring models and observations into consistency, by improving initial conditions, inferring uncertain model parameters and structure, and quantifying uncertainty. Generally, there will be advantages and complementarities of adjoint-based smoother approaches, ensemble-based filter approaches, or new ML-inspired approaches. Yet, the ever-increasing model resolution will present growing challenges arising from computational cost, calling for new ways of performing data assimilation and model optimization. Using the complementarity in a hybrid approach, blending tools and concepts from variational, ensemble and ML methods might be what is required in the future. In this context ML could be important to handle non-linear responses, and to better approximate non-Gaussian distributions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The 2003 Goddard Rocket Replica Project: A Reconstruction of the World's First Functional Liquid Rocket System
As a part of NASA s 2003 Centennial of Flight celebration, engineers and technicians at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), Huntsville, Alabama, in cooperation with the Alabama-Mississippi AIAA Section, have reconstructed historically accurate, functional replicas of Dr. Robert H. Goddard s 1926 first liquid- fuel rocket. The purposes of this project were to clearly understand, recreate, and document the mechanisms and workings of the 1926 rocket for exhibit and educational use, creating a vital resource for researchers studying the evolution of liquid rocketry for years to come. The MSFC team s reverse engineering activity has created detailed engineering-quality drawings and specifications describing the original rocket and how it was built, tested, and operated. Static hot-fire tests, as well as flight demonstrations, have further defined and quantified the actual performance and engineering actual performance and engineering challenges of this major segment in early aerospace history.
R. A. Farr↗
Structure and Parameter Uncertainty in Centennial Projections of Forest Community Structure and Carbon Cycling
Secondary forest regrowth shapes community succession and biogeochemistry for decades, including in the Upper Great Lakes region. Vegetation models encapsulate our understanding of forest function, and whether models can reproduce multi‐decadal succession patterns is an indication of our ability to predict forest responses to future change. We test the ability of a vegetation model to simulate C cycling and community composition during 100 years of forest regrowth following stand‐replacing disturbance, asking (a) Which processes and parameters are most important to accurately model Upper Midwest forest succession? (b) What is the relative importance of model structure versus parameter values to these predictions? We ran ensembles of the Ecosystem Demography model v2.2 with different representations of processes important to competition for light. We compared the magnitude of structural and parameter uncertainty and assessed which sub‐model–parameter combinations best reproduced observed C fluxes and community composition. On average, our simulations underestimated observed net primary productivity (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) after 100 years and predicted complete dominance by a single plant functional type (PFT). Out of 4,000 simulations, only nine fell within the observed range of both NPP and LAI, but these predicted unrealistically complete dominance by either early hardwood or pine PFTs. A different set of seven simulations were ecologically plausible but under‐predicted observed NPP and LAI. Parameter uncertainty was large; NPP and LAI ranged from ~0% to >200% of their mean value, and any PFT could become dominant. The two parameters that contributed most to uncertainty in predicted NPP were plant–soil water conductance and growth respiration, both unobservable empirical coefficients. We conclude that (a) parameter uncertainty is more important than structural uncertainty, at least for ED‐2.2 in Upper Midwest forests and (b) simulating both productivity and plant community composition accurately without physically unrealistic parameters remains challenging for demographic vegetation models.
canopy radiative transfer↗