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Multi-Decadal Aerosol Variations from 1980 to 2009: A Perspective from Observations and a Global Model

Aerosol variations and trends over different land and ocean regions during 1980-2009 are analyzed with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model and observations from multiple satellite sensors and ground-based networks. Excluding time periods with large volcanic influences, the tendency of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface concentration over polluted land regions is consistent with the anthropogenic emission changes.The largest reduction occurs over Europe, and regions in North America and Russia also exhibit reductions. On the other hand, East Asia and South Asia show AOD increases, although relatively large amount of natural aerosols in Asia makes the total changes less directly connected to the pollutant emission trends. Over major dust source regions, model analysis indicates that the dust emissions over the Sahara and Sahel respond mainly to the near-surface wind speed, but over Central Asia they are largely influenced by ground wetness. The decreasing dust trend in the tropical North Atlantic is most closely associated with the decrease of Sahel dust emission and increase of precipitation over the tropical North Atlantic, likely driven by the sea surface temperature increase. Despite significant regional trends, the model-calculated global annual average AOD shows little changes over land and ocean in the past three decades, because opposite trends in different regions cancel each other in the global average. This highlights the need for regional-scale aerosol assessment, as the global average value conceals regional changes, and thus is not sufficient for assessing changes in aerosol loading.

atmopheric aerosols↗

North Atlantic Surface Winds Examined as the Source of Warm Advection into Europe in Winter

When from the southwest, North Atlantic ocean surface winds are known to bring warm and moist airmasses into central Europe in winter. By tracing backward trajectories from western Europe, we establish that these airmasses originate in the southwestern North Atlantic, in the very warm regions of the Gulf Stream. Over the eastern North Atlantic, Lt the gateway to Europe, the ocean-surface winds changed directions in the second half of the XXth century, those from the northwest and from the southeast becoming so infrequent, that the direction from the southwest became even more dominant. For the January-to-March period, the strength of south-westerlies in this region, as well as in the source region, shows in the years 1948-1995 a significant increase, above 0.2 m/sec/ decade. Based on the sensitivity of the surface temperature in Europe, slightly more than 1 C for a 1m/sec increase in the southwesterly wind, found in the previous studies, the trend in the warm advection accounts for a large part of the warming in Europe established for this period in several reports. However, for the most recent years, 1996-2001, the positive trend in the southwesterly advection appears to be is broken, which is consistent with unseasonally cold events reported in Europe in those winters. This study had, some bearing on evaluating the respective roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Greenhouse Gas Global warming, GGG, in the strong winter warming observed for about half a century over the northern-latitude continents. Changes in the ocean-surface temperatures induced by GGG may have produced the dominant southwesterly direction of the North Atlantic winds. However, this implies a monotonically (apart from inherent interannual variability) increasing advection, and if the break in the trend which we observe after 1995 persists, this mechanism is counter-indicated. The 1948-1995 trend in the south-westerlies could then be considered to a large degree attributable to the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Otterman, J.↗

Characterization of Aerosol Episodes in the Greater Mediterranean Sea Area from Satellite Observations (2000-2007)

An algorithm able to identify and characterize episodes of different aerosol types above sea surfaces of the greater Mediterranean basin (GMB), including the Black Sea and the Atlantic Ocean off the coasts of Iberia and northwest Africa, is presented in this study. Based on this algorithm, five types of intense (strong and extreme) aerosol episodes in the GMB are identified and characterized using daily aerosol optical properties from satellite measurements, namely MODIS-Terra, Earth Probe (EP)-TOMS and OMIAura. These aerosol episodes are: (i) biomass-burning/urban-industrial (BU), (ii) desert dust (DD), (iii) dust/sea-salt (DSS), (iv) mixed (MX) and (v) undetermined (UN). The identification and characterization is made with our algorithm using a variety of aerosol properties, namely aerosol optical depth (AOD), Angstrom exponent (a), fine fraction (FF), effective radius (reff) and Aerosol Index (AI). During the study period (2000e2007), the most frequent aerosol episodes are DD, observed primarily in the western and central Mediterranean Sea, and off the northern African coasts, 7 times/year for strong episodes and 4 times/year for extreme ones, on average. The DD episodes yield 40% of all types of strong aerosol episodes in the study region, while they account for 71.5% of all extreme episodes. The frequency of occurrence of strong episodes exhibits specific geographical patterns, for example the BU are mostly observed along the coasts of southern Europe and off the Atlantic coasts of Portugal, the MX episodes off the Spanish Mediterranean coast and over the Adriatic and northern Aegean Sea, while the DSS ones over the western and central Mediterranean Sea. On the other hand, the extreme episodes for all but DD aerosol display more patchy spatial patterns. The strong episodes exhibit AOD at 550 nm as high as 1.6 in the southernmost parts of central and eastern Mediterranean Sea, which rise up to 5 for the extreme, mainly DD and DSS, episodes. Although more than 90% of all aerosol episodes last 1 day, there are few cases, mainly extreme DD episodes, which last up to 4 days. Independently of their type, the Mediterranean aerosol episodes occur more frequently in spring (strong and extreme episodes) and summer (strong episodes) and most rarely during winter. A significant year by year variability of Mediterranean aerosol episodes has been identified, more in terms of their frequency than intensity. An analysis of 5-day back trajectories for the most extreme episodes provides confidence on the obtained results of the algorithm, based on the revealed origin and track of air masses causing the episodes. The 25 and 6% of all strong and extreme episodes, respectively, are MX, thus highlighting the co-existence of different aerosol types in the greater Mediterranean. The intensity of both MX and DSS episodes exhibits similar patterns to those of DD strong ones, indicating that desert dust is a determinant factor for the intensity of aerosol episodes in the Mediterranean, including DSS and MX episodes.

Atmospheric Chemistry↗

An atlas of 1977 and 1978 GEOS-3 radar altimeter data for tropical cyclone studies

All of the GEOS 3 satellite altimeter schedule information were collected with all of the available 1977 and 1978 tropical cyclone positional information. The time period covers from March 23, 1977 through Nov. 23, 1978. The geographical region includes all ocean area north of the equator divided into the following operational areas: the Atlantic area (which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico); the eastern Pacific area; the central and western Pacific area; and the Indian Ocean area. All available source material concerning tropical cyclones was collected. The date/time/location information was extracted for each disturbance. This information was compared with the GEOS 3 altimeter ON/OFF history information to determine the existence of any altimeter data close enough in both time and location to make the data potentially useful for further study (the very liberal criteria used was time less than 24 hours and location within 25 degrees). Geographic plots (cyclone versus GEOS 3 orbit track) were produced for all of the events found showing the approximate location of the cyclone and the GEOS 3 orbit traces for the full day.

Stanley, H. R.↗

Convective transport over the central United States and its role in regional CO and ozone budgets

We have constructed a regional budget for boundary layer carbon monoxide over the central United States (32.5 deg - 50 deg N, 90 deg - 105 deg W), emphasizing a detailed evaluation of deep convective vertical fluxes appropriate for the month of June. Deep convective venting of the boundary layer (upward) dominates other components of the CO budget, e.g., downward convective transport, loss of CO by oxidation, anthropogenic emissions, and CO produced from oxidation of methane, isoprene, and anthropogenic nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs). Calculations of deep convective venting are based on the method pf Pickering et al.(1992a) which uses a satellite-derived deep convective cloud climatology along with transport statistics from convective cloud model simulations of observed prototype squall line events. This study uses analyses of convective episodes in 1985 and 1989 and CO measurements taken during several midwestern field campaigns. Deep convective venting of the boundary layer over this moderately polluted region provides a net (upward minus downward) flux of 18.1 x 10(exp 8) kg CO/month to the free troposphere during early summer. Shallow cumulus and synoptic-scale weather systems together make a comparable contribution (total net flux 16.2 x 10(exp 8) kg CO/month). Boundary layer venting of CO with other O3 precursors leads to efficient free troposheric O3 formation. We estimate that deep convective transport of CO and other precursors over the central United States in early summer leads to a gross production of 0.66 - 1.1 Gmol O3/d in good agreement with estimates of O3 production from boundary layer venting in a continental-scale model (Jacob et al., 1993a, b). On this respect the central U.S. region acts as s `chimney' for the country, and presumably this O3 contributes to high background levels of O3 in the eastern United States and O3 export to the North Atlantic.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

An investigation of the relationship between sub-Saharan rainfall and global sea surface temperatures

The relationship between SST and rainfall index anomalies over sub-Saharan Africa for the 1970-1984 period is investigated. Results of an empirical orthogonal function analysis indicate that the most dominant eigenmode, EOF1, is characterized by warming over the central eastern Pacific, cooling over the eastern midlatitude Pacific, and warming over the entire Atlantic and Indian ocean basins. EOF1 is found to have statistically signifiant monthly correlations for the Sahel and Soudan regions, with the warm El Nino-like phases of SST EOF1 corresponding to drought conditions. These results suggest that the large-scale SST anomalies may be responsible for a large component of the observed vacillation of sub-Saharan rainfall.

Semazzi, F. H. M.↗

A comparison of regional isentropic-sigma and sigma model simulations of the January 1979 Chicago blizzard

In an initial effort in regional numerical weather prediction, results from the University of Wisconsin isentropic-sigma (UW theta-sigma) hybrid model and an 'identical' sigma model are compared. The two main objectives are to demonstrate the capability of the UW theta-sigma model for regional numerical weather prediction and to identify advantages of the hybrid model in simulating atmospheric water vapor transport and precipitation relative to the sigma model. The 72-h simulations produced by the two models extend over a region covering the western Pacific Ocean, North America, and the western Atlantic Ocean. The simulations begin at 0000 UTC 13 January 1979, a period during which an intense Chicago blizzard develops over the central United States. This period also includes the rapid development of a cyclone in the western Pacific Ocean. Results using the Global Weather Experiment (GWE) ECMWF level IIIB data as initial and verification data indicate that both models produce reasonable and similar 72-h simulations, with the UW theta-sigma model mass and momentum distributions being slightly more accurate than the sigma model. Of particular importance for the Chicago blizzard is that the UW theta-sigma model more accurately simulates water vapor transport northward from the Gulf of Mexico and westward from the Atlantic Ocean. As a result, the hybrid model more accurately simulates observed precipitation, especially over the northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada.

Zapotocny, Tom H.↗

Teleconnections, Midlatitude Cyclones and Aegean Sea Turbulent Heat Flux Variability on Daily Through Decadal Time Scales

We analyze daily wintertime cyclone variability in the central and eastern Mediterranean during 1958-2001, and identify four distinct cyclone states, corresponding to the presence or absence of cyclones in each basin. Each cyclone state is associated with wind flows that induce characteristic patterns of cooling via turbulent (sensible and latent) heat fluxes in the eastern Mediterranean basin and Aegean Sea. The relative frequency of occurrence of each state determines the heat loss from the Aegean Sea during that winter, with largest heat losses occurring when there is a storm in the eastern but not central Mediterranean (eNOTc), and the smallest occurring when there is a storm in the central but not eastern Mediterranean (cNOTe). Time series of daily cyclone states for each winter allow us to infer Aegean Sea cooling for winters prior to 1985, the earliest year for which we have daily heat flux observations. We show that cyclone states conducive to Aegean Sea convection occurred in 1991/1992 and 1992/1993, the winters during which deep water formation was observed in the Aegean Sea, and also during the mid-1970s and the winters of 1963/1964 and 1968/1969. We find that the eNOTc cyclone state is anticorrelated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prior to 1977/1978. After 1977/1978, the cNOTe state is anticorrelated with both the NAO and the North Caspian Pattern (NCP), showing that the area of influence of large scale atmospheric teleconnections on regional cyclone activity shifted from the eastern to the central Mediterranean during the late 1970s. A trend toward more frequent occurrence of the positive phase of the NAO produced less frequent cNOTe states since the late 1970s, increasing the number of days with strong cooling of the Aegean Sea surface waters.

cyclones↗

Tropospheric Ozone Pollution Transport Traced from the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) Instrument During the Nashville-1999 Campaign

Over the past several years, we have developed two new tropospheric ozone retrievals from the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) satellite instrument that are of sufficient resolution to follow pollution episodes. The modified-residual technique [Hudson and Thompson, 1998; Thompson and Hudson, 1999] uses v. 7 TOMS total ozone and is applicable to tropical regimes in which the wave-one pattern in total ozone is observed. The TOMS-direct method [("TDOT" = TOMS Direct Ozone in the Troposphere; Frolov et al., 2000] represents a new algorithm that uses TOMS radiances directly (i.e., not previously processed for TOMS ozone) to extract tropospheric ozone in regions of constant stratospheric ozone and tropospheric ozone displaying high mixing ratios and variability characteristic of pollution. These events tend to occur in certain meteorological regimes. For example, mid-latitude pollution usually occurs on the backside of subtropical fronts, as low pv, usually moist air intrudes to the extra-tropics. July 1999 was a month characterized by robust pollution in the eastern US, with high ozone, as detected by TOMS, originating over south central states and moving up the Atlantic seaboard. This corresponds to 50-80 DU in tropospheric ozone column depth. In most cases, further transport occurred to the North Atlantic, with ozone plumes traveling to western Europe in 4-5 days. Examples of high ozone and transit across boundaries within the US, as well as US->Europe, give a regional context for model results and field measurements taken in the SE US during the Nashville-1999 campaign period. Validation of the TDOT maps is made with ozonesondes taken during that time. TDOT maps also show ozone pollution from Asia traveling to the western US in July 1999.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

Research of the state of convection in the Earth's mantle

The behavior and mechanical properties of the lithosphere are studied. Geoid heights derived from the GEOS 3 and SEASAT radar altimeters were used. The following predictive capabilities are discussed: location of unknown seamounts from the knowledge of the geoid heights; prediction of gravity field from the knowledge of the topography and past history of the relief; or insight into the history of a region from the knowledge of both topography and geoid heights. Several geographical areas were studied, including the Walvis Ridge and Rio Grande Rise in the Southern Atlantic Ocean and several seamount chains in the Central Pacific Ocean. Two main factors influence geoid height: conditions of creation and age of the lithosphere at the time of loading.

Roufosse, M. C.↗

Three-D Simulation of the Origin of the Pollutant Ozone Maxima in the Great African Plume: New Meteorology, New Chemistry for TRACE-A

Burning in South Central Africa is primarily responsible for the vast buildup of ozone in the mid-Atlantic noticeable in the Belem, Brazil, ozonesondes, and also visible in analyses using the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS). We report on full-scale chemistry simulations for the SAFARI/TRACE-A field period of September-October, 1992. These observational programs provided a wealth of comparison data, including spectacular depictions of the vertical structure of ozone and particulate pollution over Africa, South America, and the Equatorial Atlantic [Browell JGR, 1996, submitted] above and below the NASA DC-8 airplane path. These depictions provide strict tests on the ability of a 3-d simulation and its controlling input parameters, most notably the biomass burning emissions strength. We use meteorology from MM5 used as a synoptic assimilation model and our own GRACES Global Regional Air Chemistry Event Simulator. This report will focus on the unique meteorology of the Equatorial Atmosphere around the Gulf of Guinea during the TRACE-A period, which we describe as "the opening of the gate," "the Great African Plume," and the "African Recirculatory System." We expect to assess whether the ozone observed is primarily "transported African smog," the standard view, or whether "re-$NO_[x)$-ification" of the Central Atlantic troposphere (reduction of nitric acid to active nitrogen oxides in clouds or aerosol) may be required for "extended intercontinental ozone production." A status report on a second nitrogen problem, "lower-tropospheric missing NO(y)," in which we find a serious imbalance in the $NO_ {x }$ and $NO_{y}$ budgets when compared with similar atmospheric tracers, will be given. An elaboration of the concepts set off by quotation marks in this abstract will be given in the talk.

Chatfeild, Robert↗

An intercalibration of Meteosat-1 and GOES-2 visible and infrared measurements

An intercomparison between radiative parameters determined from visible and infrared channels of the Meteosat-1 and GOES-2 geosynchronous satellites has been carried out using data obtained over the central Atlantic Ocean for 5 November 1978. Hourly visible-infrared measurement pairs at a nominal resolution of 5 km (Meteosat) or 8 km (GOES) have been stored in 1 deg x 1 deg longitude-latitude regions. For the infrared intercomparisons, the GOES 11.5 micron radiance has been compared to Meteosat infrared counts. The scatter in partly cloudy regions is interpreted as being caused by meteorological differences arising from differences in measurement time between the two data sets. For the visible intercomparison, the GOES measurements for clear and cloudy scenes have first been converted with the aid of scene-dependent angular reflectance and albedo models to estimates of the filtered shortwave radiance that GOES would have measured had it been in the Meteosat position. This value has then been compared to Meteosat counts for the shortwave channel. The results indicate that earlier Meteosat calibrations made from airplane overflights of a limited variety of surfaces are applicable to much larger areas of cloud and ocean.

Brooks, D. R.↗

Design and performance of the solar maximum mission Hard X-ray Burst Spectrometer

The Hard X-ray Burst Spectrometer acquires data on the temporal and energy distribution of solar X-rays in the energy region from 25 to 385 keV. The detector system is a CsI(Na) central detector, and an anti-coincidence shield with photomultiplier tubes optically coupled to the central and shield crystals. Additional detectors are included for calibration and South Atlantic Anomaly monitoring. A 15 channel pulse height analysis is performed over the energy range every 128 milliseconds. This instrument is capable of handling event rates up to 500 kHz and provides high rate data up to 100 kHz with low spectral distortion. Nine accumulated rates are telemetered every 8.192 seconds. A unique feature of the instrument is the ability to sample rates from the central detector or shield with a one millisecond minimum time resolution. Such samples are stored in a 32768 sample memory with a 40 percent pretrigger event history and a 60 percent posttrigger history.

Workman, L. G.↗

Extreme Winter/Early-Spring Temperature Anomalies in Central Europe

Extreme seasonal fluctuations of the surface-air temperature characterize the climate of central Europe, 45-60 deg North Temperature difference between warm 1990 and cold 1996 in the January-March period, persisting for more than two weeks at a time, amounted to 18 C for extensive areas. These anomalies in the surface-air temperature stem in the first place from differences in the low level flow from the eastern North-Atlantic: the value of the Index 1na of southwesterlies over the eastern North-Atlantic was 8.0 m/s in February 1990, but only 2.6 m/ s in February 1996. The primary forcing by warm advection to positive anomalies in monthly mean surface temperature produced strong synoptic-scale uplift at the 700 mb level over some regions in Europe. The strong uplift contributed in 1990 to a much larger cloud-cover over central Europe, which reduced heat-loss to space (greenhouse effect). Thus, spring arrived earlier than usual in 1990, but later than usual in 1996.

Otterman, Joseph↗

Regional contributions to the atmospheric excitation of rapid polar motions

Daily fields of surface pressure produced by the National Meteorological Center during 1981-1985 are used to identify the sectors of the globe over which changes in atmospheric mass contribute most importantly to the excitation of intraseasonal variations in the earth's polar axis. Maxima in the excitation function are found over the extratropical South Pacific, North Pacific, and North Atlantic, consistent with previous studies that have identified maxima in surface pressure variations in these regions. Because these centers are located over the ocean, the manner in which the ocean responds to changes in the atmospheric mass above it becomes of central importance in fully understanding the causes of rapid polar motions.

Salstein, David A.↗

Timing and Geochemical Evolution of Triassic and Jurassic Magmatism during the Break-up of Pangea along the Eastern North American Margin

While our understanding of continental break-up has seen dramatic advances over the past decades, the impact of syn-rift melt generation on the transition from mechanical stretching to seafloor spreading remains enigmatic. Early Mesozoic continental break-up along the U.S. Eastern North American Margin (ENAM) is characterized by protracted Triassic lithospheric stretching and syn-rift deposition interrupted by voluminous Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) magmatism. This magmatic phase is followed by ~50 Myr of protracted rifting prior to steady-state seafloor spreading. Mesozoic magmatism recognized in outcrop and aeromagnetic datasets along the ENAM has been summarily attributed to CAMP, although extensive regional dikes preserved in the ENAM proximal rift domain remain largely undated. This study provides new constraints on the timing, duration, and geochemical evolution of syn-rift ENAM magmatism using in-situ apatite U-Pb geochronology and whole-rock geochemistry and integrates these data into a tectonic model. We present in-situ apatite U-Pb ages and whole-rock geochemical data for 16 diabase dikes and sills from NJ, PA, VA, NC, and SC. A Palisades Sill sample yielded an age of 201 ± 8 Ma and agrees with previous 40 Ar/39 Ar and U-Pb ages. Our new in-situ apatite U-Pb ages fall into three clusters and suggest three main pulses of magmatism along the ENAM, with an initial pulse of magmatism at ~205-195 Ma attributed to CAMP. Whole-rock geochemistry of this pulse shows silica (46-53 wt.%), total alkalis (2-4 wt.%), and enrichment of LREEs relative to HREEs, comparable to previously reported geochemical data for CAMP-related rocks along the ENAM. A second magmatic pulse occurred between ~181-175 Ma and shows slightly higher silica and total alkalis, compared to the older CAMP-age phase. The third pulse between ~166-145 Ma generally shows slightly higher silica and total alkalis. LOI and Sr/Yb values of the two younger pulses are similar to CAMP-age samples suggesting no post-crystallization alteration. These new data demonstrate long-lived syn-rift off-axis magmatism persisted ~50 Myr after the onset of CAMP. This post-CAMP off-axis magmatism is likely related to slow magma-limited spreading during the protracted transition to symmetric seafloor spreading along the ENAM.

Z. Foster-Baril↗

Interactions Between Vestige Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and Mid-Latitude Storms Over Mediterranean Basin

One of the more interesting tropical-mid-latitude interactions is one that has important effects on precipitation within the Mediterranean basin. This interaction consists of an Atlantic tropical cyclone vestige whose original disturbance travels eastward and northward across Atlantic basin, eventually intermingling with a mid-latitude cyclone entering southern Europe and/or the \bestern Mediterranean Sea. The period for these interactions is from mid-September through November. If the tropical cyclone and its vestige is able to make the eastward Atlantic transit within the low to mid-levels, or if an upper level potential vorticity perturbation Cjet streak) emitted by a Hurricane in its latter stages within the central Atlantic is able to propagate into and along the longwave pattern affecting the western Mediterranean Sea (MED), then there is the prospect for the tropical cyclone remnant to produce a major modification of the mid-latitude storm system preparing to affect the MED region. For such an occurrence to take place, it is necessary for an amplifying baroclinic perturbation to be already situated to the rear of a longwave trough, or to be excited by the emitted jet streak to the rear of a longwave trough -- in either case, preparing to affect the western MED. The Algiers City flood of 9-10 November 2001, which killed some 700 people, was produced by a Mediterranean cyclone that had been influenced by two vestige Atlantic tropical cyclones, 1,orenzo and Noel. A published modeling study involving various of this study's authors has already described the dynamical development of the Algiers storm as it amplified from a developing baroclinic disturbance in the Rossby wave train, into a northern Africa hazardous flood system, then lingered in the western MED as a semi-intense warm core cyclone. In our new modeling experiments, we investigate the impact of what might have happened in the eventual precipitation field. had the main features of the tropical cyclones NOT interacted with thc developing baroclinic disturbance as it penetrated the western MED. To do so, we first remove the moisture and dynamical features of the two vestigial tropical cyclones from the large scale meteorological fields used to initialize the Mediterranean cyclone simulation. This is done through depletion of the moisture front associated with the two tropical cyclones, accomplished by relaxation to the suppressed east Atlantic conditions. The dynamical effects are removed through energetic destruction of the latter stages of the eastward traveling tropical cyclones, accomplished by lowering the underlying sea surface temperatures. A precipitation-distribution impact experiment is then run by initializing with the customized large-scale fields. The final precipitation-impact field is described by differencing the "impact" run from the "control" run -- the latter defined as the original simulation which intrinsically includes the effects of the two vestigial tropical cyclones.

Smith, Eric A.↗

A comparison between general circulation model simulations using two sea surface temperature datasets for January 1979

Simulations with the UCLA atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using two different global sea surface temperature (SST) datasets for January 1979 are compared. One of these datasets is based on Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) (SSTs) at locations where there are ship reports, and climatology elsewhere; the other is derived from measurements by instruments onboard NOAA satellites. In the former dataset (COADS SST), data are concentrated along shipping routes in the Northern Hemisphere; in the latter dataset High Resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS SST), data cover the global domain. Ensembles of five 30-day mean fields are obtained from integrations performed in the perpetual-January mode. The results are presented as anomalies, that is, departures of each ensemble mean from that produced in a control simulation with climatological SSTs. Large differences are found between the anomalies obtained using COADS and HIRS SSTs, even in the Northern Hemisphere where the datasets are most similar to each other. The internal variability of the circulation in the control simulation and the simulated atmospheric response to anomalous forcings appear to be linked in that the pattern of geopotential height anomalies obtained using COADS SSTs resembles the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF 1) in the control simulation. The corresponding pattern obtained using HIRS SSTs is substantially different and somewhat resembles EOF 2 in the sector from central North America to central Asia. To gain insight into the reasons for these results, three additional simulations are carried out with SST anomalies confined to regions where COADS SSTs are substantially warmer than HIRS SSTs. The regions correspond to warm pools in the northwest and northeast Pacific, and the northwest Atlantic. These warm pools tend to produce positive geopotential height anomalies in the northeastern part of the corresponding oceans. Both warm pools in the Pacific produce large-scale circulation anomalies with a pattern that resembles that obtained using COADS SSTs as well as EOF 1 of the control simulation; the warm pool in the Atlantic does not. These results suggest that the differences obtained with COADS SSTs and HIRS SSTs are mostly due to the differences in the datasets over the northern Pacific. There was a blocking episode near Greenland in late January 1979. Both simulations with warm SST anomalies over the northwest and northeast Pacific show a tendency toward increased incidence of North Atlantic blocking; the simulation with warm SST anomalies over the northwest Atlantic shows a tendency toward decreased incidence. These results suggest that features in both SST datasets that do not have a counterpart in the other dataset contribute signficantly to the differences between the simulated and observed fields. The results of this study imply that uncertainties in current SST distributions for the world oceans can be as important as the SST anomalies themselves in terms of their impact on the atmospheric circulation. Caution should be exercised, therefore, when linking anomalous circulation and SST patterns, especially in long-range prediction.

Ose, Tomoaki↗