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NASA NTRS2003

Velocity Structure and Plasma Properties in Halo CMEs

We have identified a set of 23 Halo CMEs through July 2002 and 21 Partial Halo CMEs from the LASCO Halo CME Mail Archive for which Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) spectra exist. For each event we have collected basic information such as the event speed, whether or not UVCS caught the bright front, lines detected, Doppler shift and associated flare class. We have also obtained excellent observations of some of the spectacular events in November 2003, and we have made theoretical calculations pertaining to CME expansion at the heights observed by UVCS. We first analyzed the halo CMEs on 21 April and 24 August 2002 and the partial halo on 23 July 2002, because the X-class flares associated with these CMEs were extensively observed by RHESSI and other instruments as part of the MAX MILLENIUM campaign. These very fast CMEs showed extremely violent disruption of the pre-CME streamers, little or no cool prominence material, and the unusual (for UVCS heights) hot emission line [Fe XVIII]. Results, including a discussion of the current sheet interpretation for the [Fe XVIII] emission, are published in Raymond et al. and presented at the Fall 2002 AGU meeting and the solar physics summer school in L'Aquila, Italy. We are currently preparing two papers on the Dec. 28, 2000 partial halo event. This event was chosen to take advantage of the SEP event measured by WIND and ACE, and because a Type II radio burst coincides with the time that broad, blue-shifted O VI emission appeared in the UVCS spectra. One paper deals with a new density and velocity diagnostic for very fast CMEs; pumping of O VI lambda 1032 by Ly beta and pumping of O VI lambda 1038 by O VI lambda 1032. The other discusses physics of the shock wave and association with the SEP event. In the coming year we plan to expand the list of Halo and Partial Halo events observed by UVCS through the end of 2003. We will look at those events as a class to search for correlation between UV spectral characteristics and other CME and flare parameters. We will also choose several events for more detailed study, probably including the November 2003 events. We expect to support extended visits to CfA by S. Mancuso and A. Ciaravella. In the past year the grant covered some salary support for members of the SAO UVCS team and a 1 month visit to CfA by Angela Ciaravella, along with trips to meetings by J. Lin and J. Raymond and page charges for two papers.

Wagner, William↗

NASA NTRS1982

High-resolution X-ray spectra of solar flares. VI - Impulsive soft X-ray flares

Doschek et al. (1980) and Feldman et al. (1980) have discussed high-resolution soft X-ray spectra of solar flares. The present investigation is concerned with the characteristics of the impulsive events as observed in soft X rays and the cooling of the flare plasma in terms of energy loss processes. A class of intense, short-lived solar flares which appear to be characterized by very high densities at high temperatures is found. For the 1979 November 6 event, the cooling time is so rapid that the density obtained may be a lower limit. The main cooling mechanism for the flares is found to be radiative. Two of the events are associated with strong gamma-ray emission and both of these events are very unusual in their soft X-ray emission. The 1979 November 9 flare shows extremely broad X-ray emission lines during the rise phase, indicative of nonthermal velocities of the order of 300 km/s.

Feldman, U.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Far-ultraviolet absorption spectra of quasars: How to find missing hot gas and metals

We show that some high-redshift QSO absorption systems that reveal only the H I Lyman series lines at wavelengths visible from the ground maybe a new class of ultra-high-ionization metal line systems, with metal lines in the far-UV region which is now being explored with satellites. At high temperatures or in intense radiation fields metal systems will not show the usual C IV absorption, and O VI will become the most prominent metal absorber. At still higher ionization, O IV also becomes weak and the strongest metal lines are from Ne VIII, Mg X and Si XII, which have doublets in the rangs 500-800 A. Hence very high ionization metal systems will not show metal lines in existing spectra. Recent X-ray observations show that galaxy halos contain hot gas, so we predict that far-UV spectra of QSOs will also show this gas.

Verner, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

More confirmed damped Lyman-Alpha systems from the Las Campanas/Palomar survey

We present moderate-resolution spectra of six high-redshift quasars which contain nine candidate damped Lyman alpha absorption systems identified in the Las Campanas/Palomar survey of Lanzetta et al. (ApJS, 77, 1 (1991)). Eight of the nine candidate damped Lyman alpha absorption systems are confirmed (one tentative), including seven with N(H I) greater than or equal to 2 x 10(exp 20) /sq cm. The remaining one turns out to be due to blending of many narrow absorption lines. Accurate absorption redshifts, H I column densities, and metal-line equivalent widths are provided for these systems in order to facilitate future studies of detailed physical condition and chemical abundances. We briefly discuss the 18 other metal-line systems identified along these sight lines. The z(sub abs) = 2.6527 system toward Q 2231-00 is interesting in that it shows strong O VI (lambda) (lambda) 1031, 1037 absorption. The O VI ion is one of the best diagnostics of hot gas, and high resolution studies of the O VI absorption is likely to yield important clues regarding the ionization mechanism of the metal-line systems. Another system, at z(sub abs) = 2.3771 toward Q 2239-38, shows relatively strong Zn II and Cr II absorption, clearly indicating that it belongs to the same class absorbers as the damped Lyman systems. We have not obtained metal abundances for this system because the H(sub I) column density is not available. We also find a Lyman limit absorption system at z(sub abs)= 3.5090 toward Q 2239-38 which does not show obvious metal absorption lines. More sensitive observations are required to check on this interesting possibility.

Lu, Limin↗

NASA NTRS1978

Growth of single crystals by vapor transport

The primary objectives of the program were to establish basic vapor transport and crystal growth properties and to determine thermodynamic, kinetic and structural parameters relevant to chemical vapor transport systems for different classes of materials. An important aspect of these studies was the observation of the effects of gravity-caused convection on the mass transport rate and crystal morphology. These objectives were accomplished through extensive vapor transport, thermochemical and structural studies on selected Mn-chalcogenides, II-VI and IV-VI compounds.

Wiedemeier, H.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Microgravity materials processing for commercial applications

An evaluation is made of the development status of materials processing techniques in microgravity environments; the classes of materials treated to date encompass glasses, ceramics, crystals, semiconductors, metals and their alloys, polymers, composites, and such biological substances as pharmaceuticals. Attention is given to the commercial development of composite and mixed-phase materials with substantially improved properties as a result of microgravity processing, as well as to current research into catalysts and Type II-VI semiconductor crystals such as CdTe.

Kohli, R.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Discovery of an X-ray star association in VI Cygni /Cyg OB2/

A group of six X-ray sources located within 0.4 deg of Cygnus X-3 has been discovered with the Einstein Observatory. These sources have been positively identified and five of them correspond to stars in the heavily obscured OB association VI Cygni. The optical counterparts include four of the most luminous O stars within the field of view and a B5 supergiant. These sources are found to have typical X-ray luminosities of 5 x 10 to the 33rd ergs/s, with temperatures of 10 to the 6.8th K and hydrogen column densities of 10 to the 22nd/sq cm, and therefore comprise a new class of low-luminosity galactic X-ray sources associated with early-type stars.

Harnden, F. R., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Far-Ultraviolet Spectra of "Cool" PG1159 Stars

We present a comprehensive study of Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) spectra (912-1190 A) of two members of the PG1159 spectral class, which consists of hydrogen-deficient (pre-) white dwarfs with effective temperatures in the range T(sub eff) = 75000-200000 K. As two representatives of the cooler objects, we have selected PG1707+427 (T(sub eff) = 85000 K) and PG1424+535 (T(sub eff) = 110000 K), complementing a previous study of the hotter prototype PG1159-035 (T(sub eff) = 140000 K). The helium-dominated atmospheres are strongly enriched in carbon and oxygen, therefore, their spectra are dominated by lines from C III-IV and O III-VI, many of which were never observed before in hot stars. In addition, lines of many other metals (N, F, Ne, Si, P, S, Ar, Fe) are detectable, demonstrating that observations in this spectral region are most rewarding when compared to the near-ultraviolet and optical wavelength bands. We perform abundance analyses of these species and derive upper limits for several undetected light and heavy metals including iron-group and trans-iron elements. The results are compared to predictions of stellar evolution models for neutron-capture nucleosynthesis and good agreement is found.

Werner, K.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Ionization and thermal equilibrium models for O star winds based on time-independent radiation-driven wind theory

Ab initio ionization and thermal equilibrium models are calculated for the winds of O stars using the results of steady state radiation-driven wind theory to determine the input parameters. Self-consistent methods are used for the roles of H, He, and the most abundant heavy elements in both the statistical and the thermal equilibrium. The model grid was chosen to encompass all O spectral subtypes and the full range of luminosity classes. Results of earlier modeling of O star winds by Klein and Castor (1978) are reproduced and used to motivate improvements in the treatment of the hydrogen equilibrium. The wind temperature profile is revealed to be sensitive to gross changes in the heavy element abundances, but insensitive to other factors considered such as the mass-loss rate and velocity law. The reduced wind temperatures obtained in observing the luminosity dependence of the Si IV lambda 1397 wind absorption profile are shown to eliminate any prospect of explaining the observed O VI lambda 1036 line profiles in terms of time-independent radiation-driven wind theory.

Drew, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Velocity Characteristics of Evaporated Plasma using Hinode/EIS

This paper presents a detailed study of chromospheric evaporation using the EUV Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) onboard Hinode in conjunction with HXR observat,ions from RHESSI. The advanced capabilities of EIS were used to measure Doppler shifts in 15 emission lines covering the temperature range T=0.05-16 MK during the impulsive phase of a C-class flare on 2007 December 14. Blueshifts indicative of the evaporated material were observed in six emission lines from Fe XIV-XXIV (2-16 MK). Upflow velocity was found to scale with temperature as v(sub up) (kilometers per second) approximately equal to 5-17 T (MK). Although the hottest emission lines, Fe XXIII and Fe XXIV, exhibited upflows of greater than 200 kilometers per second, their line profiles were found to be dominated by a stationary component in stark contrast to the predictions of the standard flare model. Emission from O VI-Fe XIII lines (0.5-1.5 MK) was found to be redshifted by v(sub down) (kilometers per second) approximately equal to 60-17 T (MK) and was interpreted as the downward-moving 'plug' characteristic of explosive evaporation. These downflows occur at temperatures significantly higher than previously expected. Both upflows and downflows were spatially and temporally correlated with HXR emission observed by RHESSI that provided the properties of the electron beam deemed to be the driver of the evaporation. The energy contained in the electron beam was found to be greater than or equal to 10(sup 11) ergs per square centimeter per second consistent with the value required to drive explosive chromospheric evaporation from hydrodynamic simulations.

Milligan, Ryan O.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of correlations between intrinsic ductility and electronic density of states in refractory alloys

High entropy alloys (HEAs) correspond to a new and emerging class of materials that allows us to explore a large composition space to tune mechanical strength and thermal stability. Therefore, to design better alloys, it is important to scan the high-dimensional space of chemistry, composition and temperature. Here, to facilitate this search, we present a method to screen intrinsically ductile body centered cubic (BCC) refractory alloys from electronic structure calculations by using the density of states (DOS) at the Fermi level, g(μ F ). This correlation between intrinsic ductility and g(μ F ) is tested by analyzing group V (V, Nb, Ta) and VI (Mo, W) refractory metals, binary alloys, such as W-Nb, W-V, Mo-Nb and Mo-V, and refractory alloys for which experimental stress-strain measurements are available. In addition, we perform a high-throughput exploration of the entire composition space of a recently proposed alloy system, CrMoNbV, and identify compositions that exhibit high intrinsic ductility.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

A structured framework for predicting sustainable aviation fuel properties using liquid-phase FTIR and machine learning

Sustainable aviation fuels have the potential to improve efficiency, reduce emissions, and enhance energy security. To help identify viable sustainable aviation fuels and accelerate research, machine learning models have been developed to predict relevant physicochemical properties. However, many models have limited applicability, leverage data from complex analytical techniques with confined spectral ranges, or use feature decomposition methods that offer limited interpretability. Using liquid-phase Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectra, this study presents a structured method for creating accurate and interpretable property prediction models for neat molecules, aviation fuels, and blends. Liquid FTIR spectra can be collected quickly and consistently, offering high reliability, sensitivity, and component specificity using less than 2 ml of sample. The method first decomposes FTIR spectra into fundamental building blocks using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) to enable scientific analysis of FTIR spectra attributes and fuel properties. The NMF features are then used to create five ensemble models for predicting final boiling point, flash point, freezing point, density at 15°C, and kinematic viscosity at -20°C. All models were trained using experimental property data from neat molecules, aviation fuels, and blends. The models accurately predict key properties across a broad range of neat molecules and representative fuels and blends, while enabling interpretation of relationships between compositional elements, such as functional groups or chemical classes, and their resulting properties. This demonstrates strong potential to support sustainable aviation fuel research and development. The models and data are available on an interactive web tool.

Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy↗

NASA NTRS2012

Hybrid bandgap engineering for super-hetero-epitaxial semiconductor materials, and products thereof

"Super-hetero-epitaxial" combinations comprise epitaxial growth of one material on a different material with different crystal structure. Compatible crystal structures may be identified using a "Tri-Unity" system. New bandgap engineering diagrams are provided for each class of combination, based on determination of hybrid lattice constants for the constituent materials in accordance with lattice-matching equations. Using known bandgap figures for previously tested materials, new materials with lattice constants that match desired substrates and have the desired bandgap properties may be formulated by reference to the diagrams and lattice matching equations. In one embodiment, this analysis makes it possible to formulate new super-hetero-epitaxial semiconductor systems, such as systems based on group IV alloys on c-plane LaF.sub.3; group IV alloys on c-plane langasite; Group III-V alloys on c-plane langasite; and group II-VI alloys on c-plane sapphire.

Park, Yeonjoon↗

NASA NTRS2016

Nasa Space Flight Instruments: Cost Time Trends

Are NASA’s space flight instruments becoming cheaper or more expensive as time marches forward? After analyzing the costs of hundreds of instruments launched over the last 30 years, the short answer to this question is no… and yes. This paper gives a visual analysis of the cost time trends for various NASA space flight instrument types, such as optical, particles detectors, fields detectors and microwave instruments. In addition to the statistical approaches utilized, such as significance tests, cluster analysis and principle components analysis (PCA), we will also discuss the intangibles which are likely at play, including technological progress, NASA policy and the luck of the draw associated with mission manifests. This analysis was performed as the main driver for the NASA Instrument Cost Model (NICM) recent cost estimating model redesign. Started in 2004, the first version of NICM was based off of instruments launched from 1985-2005, or 20 years’ worth of data. As NICM hit its 10-year anniversary, we wanted to know: should NICM continue to only use the most recent 20 years’ worth of data (1995-2015)? Are instruments becoming cheaper or more expensive as time marches forward? There is evidence in favor of a drop in the median dollar-per-kg value across some instrument types, but little in others. Whereas further research is needed to substantiate, Particles and Optical-Planetary instrument types show moderate to strong evidence of a downward trend in dollar-per-kg. Further research is required to study the nature of this trend (shift, taper, cyclic, etc.). Little evidence for a similar downward trend was detected for Fields or Microwave instruments, or Optical instruments on Earth Orbiting spacecraft. We presented evidence in favor of a drop in the median dollar-per-kg value for Particles and Optical-Planetary instrument types. While similar evidence was weak at best for Fields and Microwave instruments. We can speculate as to the causes for this effect, but we are also equipped to begin to rule out, or at least prioritize, some of the suspected drivers. We observed, for Particles and Optical-Planetary instruments, that perhaps a launch manifest effect was playing part of the role in the observed decrease in dollar-per-kg over the years, noting that the more flagship class missions, which have more money to spend on their instruments, were seen in the earlier years in our data, versus the later years which were dominated by less expensive class missions. However, if this were a dominating driver, would we not have seen the downward trend in the Fields and Microwave instruments as well, which were drawn from that same launch manifest? The fact that we did not observe this helps us rule out the launch manifest effect, and other drivers, such as advances in technology, that seem to be more likely suspects. In that case, however, why would technology advances be helping the Particles and Optical-Planetary instruments only? Why would it not be impacting Optical-Earth Orbiting instruments? Further suspects were looked at as well and ruled out, such as the “Faster, Better, Cheaper”era of NASA development which did not seem to actually impact trends by instrument type on a dollar-perkg scale. VI. Future Work A. Time Series Detailed Statistical Assessment The analysis discussed above sets the foundation for a more rigorous time series analysis of the data. Time series analysis will further explore evidence to-date of time trends for the instrument types which showed the strongest indicators for a decrease in dollar-per-kg: Optical (Planetary) and Particles instruments. More than providing evidence and top-level significance tests, time series analysis would help elucidate what kind of trend that exists in the data, their significance and allow statistically based forecasting (see Figure 10)

Mrozinksi, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS2016

Z-2 Architecture Description and Requirements Verification Results

The Z-2 Prototype Planetary Extravehicular Space Suit Assembly is a continuation of NASA's Z series of spacesuits. The Z-2 is another step in NASA's technology development roadmap leading to human exploration of the Martian surface. The suit was designed for maximum mobility at 8.3 psid, reduced mass, and to have high fidelity life support interfaces. As Z-2 will be man-tested at full vacuum in NASA JSC's Chamber B, it was manufactured as Class II, making it the most flight-like planetary walking suit produced to date. The Z-2 suit architecture is an evolution of previous EVA suits, namely the ISS EMU, Mark III, Rear Entry I-Suit and Z-1 spacesuits. The suit is a hybrid hard and soft multi-bearing, rear entry spacesuit. The hard upper torso (HUT) is an all-composite structure and includes a 2-bearing rolling convolute shoulder with Vernier sizing mechanism, removable suit port interface plate (SIP), elliptical hemispherical helmet and self-don/doff shoulder harness. The hatch is a hybrid aluminum and composite construction with Apollo style gas connectors, custom water pass-thru, removable hatch cage and interfaces to primary and auxiliary life support feed water bags. The suit includes Z-1 style lower arms with cam brackets for Vernier sizing and government furnished equipment (GFE) Phase VI gloves. The lower torso includes a telescopic waist sizing system, waist bearing, rolling convolute waist joint, hard brief, 2 bearing soft hip thigh, Z-1 style legs with ISS EMU style cam brackets for sizing, and conformal walking boots with ankle bearings. The Z-2 Requirements Verification Plan includes the verification of more than 200 individual requirements. The verification methods include test, analysis, inspection, demonstration or a combination of methods. Examples of unmanned requirements include suit leakage, proof pressure testing, operational life, mass, isometric man-loads, sizing adjustment ranges, internal and external interfaces such as in-suit drink bag, partial pressure relief valve, purge valve, donning stand and ISS Body Restraint Tether (BRT). Examples of manned requirements include verification of anthropometric range, suit self-don/doff, secondary suit exit method, donning stand self-ingress/egress and manned mobility covering eight functional tasks. The eight functional tasks include kneeling with object pick-up, standing toe touch, cross-body reach, walking, reach to the SIP and helmet visor. This paper will provide an overview of the Z-2 design. Z-2 requirements verification testing was performed with NASA at the ILC Houston test facility. This paper will also discuss pre-delivery manned and unmanned test results as well as analysis performed in support of requirements verification.

Graziosi, Dave↗

DOE OSTI2024

Molecular dynamics simulations of uranyl and plutonyl cations in a task-specific ionic liquid

Ionic liquids (ILs) are a unique class of solvents with potential applications in advanced separation technologies relevant to the nuclear industry. ILs are salts with low melting points and a wide range of tunable physical properties, such as viscosity, hydrophobiciy, conductivity, and liquidus range. ILs have negligible vapor pressure, are often non-flammable, and can have high thermal stability and a wide electrochemical window, making them attractive for use in separations processes relevant to the nuclear industry. Metal salts generally have a low solubility in ILs; however, by incorporating new functional groups into the IL cation or anion that promote complexation with the metal, the solubility can be greatly increased. One such task-specific ionic liquid (TSIL) is 1-carboxy-N, N, N-trimethylglycine bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide ([Hbet][Tf 2 N]). Water, which is detrimental for electrochemical separations, is a common impurity in ILs and can coordinate with actinyl cations, particularly in ILs containing only weakly coordinating components. Understanding the behavior of actinides in TSIL/water mixtures on a molecular level is vital for designing improved separations processes. Classical molecular dynamics simulations of uranyl(VI) and plutonyl(VI) in 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide ([EMIM][Tf 2 N]) with deprotonated Hbet (betaine) and water have been performed to understand the coordination and dynamics of the actinyl cations. We find that betaine is a much stronger ligand than water and prefers to coordinate the metal in a bidentate manner. Potential of mean force simulations yield a relative free energy for betaine coordination of approximately -120 to -90 kJ/mol in mixtures with water. As the amount of betaine coordinated to the actinide increases, the diffusion coefficient of the actinyl cation decreases. Moreover, the betaine ligand is able to bridge between two metal centers, resulting in dimeric complexes with actinide–actinide distances of ~5 Å. Potential of mean force simulations show that these structures are stable, with relative free energies of up to -40 kJ/mol. The crystal structure for [(UO 2 ) 2 (bet) 6 (H 2 O) 2 ][Tf 2 N] 4 shows that the betaine bridges between two uranium atoms to form dimeric complexes similar to those found in our simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1997

Interstellar and Cometary Dust

'Interstellar dust' forms a continuum of materials with differing properties which I divide into three classes on the basis of observations: (a) diffuse dust, in the low-density interstellar medium; (b) outer-cloud dust, observed in stars close enough to the outer edges of molecular clouds to be observed in the optical and ultraviolet regions of the spectrum, and (c) inner-cloud dust, deep within the cores of molecular clouds, and observed only in the infrared by means of absorption bands of C-H, C=O, 0-H, C(triple bond)N, etc. There is a surprising regularity of the extinction laws between diffuse- and outer-cloud dust. The entire mean extinction law from infrared through the observable ultraviolet spectrum can be characterized by a single parameter. There are real deviations from this mean law, larger than observational uncertainties, but they are much smaller than differences of the mean laws in diffuse- and outer-cloud dust. This fact shows that there are processes which operate over the entire distribution of grain sizes, and which change size distributions extremely efficiently. There is no evidence for mantles on grains in local diffuse and outer-cloud dust. The only published spectra of the star VI Cyg 12, the best candidate for showing mantles, does not show the 3.4 micro-m band which appreciable mantles would produce. Grains are larger in outer-cloud dust than diffuse dust because of coagulation, not accretion of extensive mantles. Core-mantle grains favored by J. M. Greenberg and collaborators, and composite grains of Mathis and Whiffen (1989), are discussed more extensively (naturally, I prefer the latter). The composite grains are fluffy and consist of silicates, amorphous carbon, and some graphite in the same grain. Grains deep within molecular clouds but before any processing within the solar system are presumably formed from the accretion of icy mantles on and within the coagulated outer-cloud grains. They should contain a mineral/carbonaceous matrix, without organic refractory mantles, in between the ices. Unfortunately, they may be significantly processed by chemical processes accompanying the warming (over the 10 K of the dark cloud cores) which occurs in the outer solar system. Evidence of this processing is the chemical anomalies present in interplanetary dust particles collected in the stratosphere, which may be the most primitive materials we have obtained to date. The comet return mission would greatly clarify the situation, and probably provide samples of genuine interstellar grains.

Mathis, John S.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Classifying Multi-Model Wheat Yield Impact Response Surfaces Showing Sensitivity to Temperature and Precipitation Change

Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (minus 2 to plus 9 degrees Centigrade) and precipitation (minus 50 to plus 50 percent). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses. The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern. The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description. Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index. Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.

Classification; Climate change; Crop model; Ensemb↗