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DOE OSTI2021

The utility of Bayesian data reconciliation for separations

Data reconciliation methods for separation processes typically rely on classical statistical approaches to generate estimates of true mass flow rates from measurements. Knowledge regarding the uncertainty of these estimates has value in decision making, but is often not acquired. Bayesian approaches intrinsically quantify uncertainty; however, literature for Bayesian data reconciliation of separation processes is scarce. This publication outlines two Bayesian data reconciliation models and provides details for how the models were implemented for the BayesMassBal (V 1.0.0) software package written in R. To demonstrate the advantages of this approach for data reconciliation, the models were first applied to simulated data and then compared to a classical model through a Monte Carlo experiment. In this example, the Bayesian models were found to provide more accurate estimates of the simulated data, while also providing quantitative information on the estimate uncertainty. To demonstrate the use of the technique in a practical problem, the models were also applied to real data collected from a pilot-scale rare earth solvent extraction process. Here, this publication provides a small window into how Bayesian methods can be used for data reconciliation, but findings suggest Bayesian data reconciliation models for separation processes have distinct advantages over classical alternatives.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2024

Composite Qdrift-product formulas for quantum and classical simulations in real and imaginary time

Recent study has shown that it can be advantageous to implement a composite channel that partitions the Hamiltonian H for a given simulation problem into subsets A and B such that H = A + B , where the terms in A are simulated with a Trotter-Suzuki channel and the B terms are randomly sampled via the Qdrift algorithm. Here we extend Qdrift and composite product formulas to imaginary time, formulating candidate classical algorithms for quantum Monte Carlo calculations. We upper bound the induced Schatten- 1 → 1 norm on both imaginary-time Qdrift and composite channels. Another recent result demonstrated that simulations of lattice Hamiltonians containing geometrically local interactions can be improved using a Lieb-Robinson argument to decompose H into subsets that contain only terms supported on that subset of the lattice. Here, we provide a quantum algorithm by unifying this result with the composite approach into “local composite channels” and we upper bound the diamond distance. We provide exact numerical simulations of algorithmic cost by counting the number of gates of the form e − i H j t and e − H j β to meet a certain error tolerance ε . In doing so, we optimize the partitioning into sets A and B using gradient boosted tree models from machine learning. These numerical studies are important given that product formulas have been historically known to outperform analytic upper bounds. We show constant factor advantages for a variety of interesting Hamiltonians, the maximum of which is a ≈ 20 -fold speedup that occurs in the simulation of Jellium. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Pocrnic, Matthew (ORCID:0000000203089376)↗

NASA NTRS1980

Methods for Monte Carlo simulation of the exospheres of the moon and Mercury

A general form of the integral equation of exospheric transport on moon-like bodies is derived in a form that permits arbitrary specification of time varying physical processes affecting atom creation and annihilation, atom-regolith collisions, adsorption and desorption, and nonplanetocentric acceleration. Because these processes usually defy analytic representation, the Monte Carlo method of solution of the transport equation, the only viable alternative, is described in detail, with separate discussions of the methods of specification of physical processes as probabalistic functions. Proof of the validity of the Monte Carlo exosphere simulation method is provided in the form of a comparison of analytic and Monte Carlo solutions to three classical, and analytically tractable, exosphere problems. One of the key phenomena in moonlike exosphere simulations, the distribution of velocities of the atoms leaving a regolith, depends mainly on the nature of collisions of free atoms with rocks. It is shown that on the moon and Mercury, elastic collisions of helium atoms with a Maxwellian distribution of vibrating, bound atoms produce a nearly Maxwellian distribution of helium velocities, despite the absence of speeds in excess of escape in the impinging helium velocity distribution.

Hodges, R. R., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Essential role of magnetic frustration in the phase diagrams of doped cobaltites

Doped perovskite cobaltites (e.g., La 1–x Sr x CoO 3 ) have been extensively studied for their spin-state physics, electronic inhomogeneity, and insulator-metal transitions. Ferromagnetically interacting spin-state polarons emerge at low x in the phase diagram of these compounds, eventually yielding long-range ferromagnetism. The onset of long-range ferromagnetism (x≈0.18) is substantially delayed relative to polaron percolation (x≈0.05), however, generating a troubling inconsistency. Here, in this study, Monte Carlo simulations of a disordered classical spin model are used to establish that previously ignored magnetic frustration is responsible for this effect, enabling faithful reproduction of the magnetic phase diagram.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Efficient Probabilistic Visualization of Local Divergence of 2D Vector Fields with Independent Gaussian Uncertainty

This work focuses on visualizing uncertainty of local divergence of two-dimensional vector fields. Divergence is one of the fundamental attributes of fluid flows, as it can help domain scientists analyze potential positions of sources (positive divergence) and sinks (negative divergence) in the flow. However, uncertainty inherent in vector field data can lead to erroneous divergence computations, adversely impacting downstream analysis. While Monte Carlo (MC) sampling is a classical approach for estimating divergence uncertainty, it suffers from slow convergence and poor scalability with increasing data size and sample counts. Thus, we present a two-fold contribution that tackles the challenges of slow convergence and limited scalability of the MC approach. (1) We derive a closed-form approach for highly efficient and accurate uncertainty visualization of local divergence, assuming independently Gaussian-distributed vector uncertainties. (2) We further integrate our approach into Viskores, a platform-portable parallel library, to accelerate uncertainty visualization. In our results, we demonstrate significantly enhanced efficiency and accuracy of our serial analytical (speed-up up to 1946×) and parallel Viskores (speed-up up to 19698×) algorithms over the classical serial MC approach. We also demonstrate qualitative improvements of our probabilistic divergence visualizations over traditional mean-field visualization, which disregards uncertainty. We validate the accuracy and efficiency of our methods on wind forecast and ocean simulation datasets.

Ouermi, Timbwaoga [University of Utah]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantum-Inspired Bayesian Sampling for Uncertainty Quantification and Machine Learning (Final Technical Report)

With increasing simulation and measurement data, machine learning and artificial intelligence have been widely used in computational decision-making of complex engineering systems. The resulting tools, such as uncertainty quantification solvers, reinforcement learning, and physics-informed machine learning, have achieved great success in critical DOE tasks such as material discovery and design, energy system modeling and control, and numerical weather and climate prediction. A core topic in scientific machine learning and artificial intelligence is Bayesian inference: given an observed data set, people want to estimate the posterior distribution of a (possibly large) number of hidden parameters. Due to the flexibility and weak assumptions, Bayesian sampling has been the mainstream Bayesian inference solvers despite the rapid progress of approximate Bayesian inference. Classical Bayesian sampling methods such as Markov-chain Monte Carlo suffer from a low-acceptance rate due to the random walk nature, therefore state-of-the-art techniques use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants to efficiently draw posterior samples in a high dimension. The key idea of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants is to simulate the Hamiltonian dynamics of a classical particle with a fixed mass, and their performance significantly degrades when the posterior distribution is highly spiky or has multiple modes. Leveraging the idea of quantum physics, this project has investigated new theory, algorithms and applications of Bayesian inference (especially Bayesian sampling). The main results include: (1) novel quantum-inspired Bayesian sampling methods that can lead to better accuracy for challenging multi-modal or spiky distributions, (2) more scalable machine learning framework leveraging tensor-compressed Bayesian inference, and (3) Bayesian and sampling approaches for verifying the robustness of continuous and binary neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian event categorization matrix approach for explosion monitoring

Current efforts to correctly categorize natural events from suspected explosion sources with data that is collected by ground- or space-based sensors presents historical challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix (ECM) model. Smaller historical events (lower yield explosions) may have data available from fewer measurement techniques than are available today, and therefore, a historical event record can lack a complete set of discriminants. The covariance structures can also differ between such observations of event (source-type) categories. Both obstacles are problematic for the classic ECM model. Our work addresses this gap and presents a Bayesian update to the previous ECM model, termed the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, which can be trained on partial observations and does not rely on a pooled covariance structure. We further augment the ECM model with Bayesian Decision Theory so that false negative or false positive rates of an event categorization can be reduced in an intuitive manner. To demonstrate improved categorization rates for the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, we compare an array of Bayesian and classic models with multiple performance metrics using Monte Carlo experiments. We use both synthetic and real data. Our Bayesian models show consistent gains in overall accuracy and lower false negative rates relative to the classic ECM model. Here, we propose future avenues to improve Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix models’ decision making and predictive capability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Equation of State Optimization and Uncertainty Quantization: Implementation in the LANL EOS Production Code OpenSesame

We detail the approaches of particle swarm optimization and Bayesian inference through Markov chain Monte Carlo for equation of state development. This work includes formulation of the modeling for the equation of state, numeric optimization of the parametric models via particle swarm optimization, and generation of probability distributions of equations of state from Markov chain Monte Carlo.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen Burning of 29 Si and Its Impact on Presolar Stardust Grains from Classical Novae

Abstract Presolar stardust grains found in primitive meteorites are believed to retain the isotopic composition of stellar outflows at the time of grain condensation. Therefore, laboratory measurements of their isotopic ratios represent sensitive probes for investigating open questions related to stellar evolution, stellar explosions, nucleosynthesis, mixing mechanisms, dust formation, and galactic chemical evolution. For a few selected presolar grains, classical novae have been discussed as a potential source. For SiC, silicate, and graphite presolar grains, the association is based on the observation of small N ( 12 C)/ N ( 13 C) and N ( 14 N)/ N ( 15 N) number abundance ratios compared to solar values, and abundance excesses in 30 Si relative to 29 Si, as previously predicted by models of classical novae. We report on a direct measurement of the 29 Si(p, γ ) 30 P reaction, which strongly impacts simulated δ 29 Si values from classical novae. Our new experimental 29 Si(p, γ ) 30 P thermonuclear reaction rate differs from previous results by up to 50% in the classical nova temperature range ( T = 100–400 MK), while the rate uncertainty is reduced by up to a factor of 3. Using our new reaction rate in Monte Carlo reaction network and hydrodynamic simulations of classical novae, we estimate δ 29 Si values with much reduced uncertainties. Our results establish δ 29 Si values measured in presolar grains as a sensitive probe for assessing their classical nova paternity. We also demonstrate that δ 30 Si values from nova simulations are currently not a useful diagnostic tool unless the large uncertainty of the 30 P(p, γ ) 31 S reaction rate can be significantly reduced.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Particle-in-cell Monte Carlo-collision modeling of non-ideal effects in wave-heated dense microplasmas

A computational model for non-ideal plasma effects during the time evolution of a second-stage laser-heated discharge at high pressures is presented. The model extends a classical one-dimensional particle-in-cell Monte Carlo-collision (PIC-MCC) approach coupled with Maxwell's equations for the laser-heating process of a xenon plasma at 300 K temperature and 10–100 bar pressure. Plasma non-ideality resulting from Coulomb coupling at high plasma densities is manifested as a depression in the effective ionization potential of atoms and enhanced collision cross sections. These non-ideal effects are represented using the Ecker–Kröll model in the context of the PIC-MCC approach. We find that full ionization of the plasma is obtained on the picosecond timescale, starting from the skin layer and quickly expanding throughout the domain through an anomalous extension of the skin depth. More critically, we show that the inclusion of the non-ideal plasma effects results in more rapid ionization compared to an ideal plasma, especially at higher pressures. The ionization delay reduction is of the order of a fraction of a picosecond, corresponding to a 16% decrease at 100 bar. As the amplitude of the wave field is lowered, the ionization rate is lowered, making the plasma non-ideality effects more prominent.

Solmaz, Evrim (ORCID:0000000211830881)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Local structure and distortions of mixed methane-carbon dioxide hydrates

A vast source of methane is found in gas hydrate deposits, which form naturally dispersed throughout ocean sediments and arctic permafrost. Methane may be obtained from hydrates by exchange with hydrocarbon byproduct carbon dioxide. It is imperative for the development of safe methane extraction and carbon dioxide sequestration to understand how methane and carbon dioxide co-occupy the same hydrate structure. Pair distribution functions (PDFs) provide atomic-scale structural insight into intermolecular interactions in methane and carbon dioxide hydrates. We present experimental neutron PDFs of methane, carbon dioxide and mixed methane-carbon dioxide hydrates at 10 K analyzed with complementing classical molecular dynamics simulations and Reverse Monte Carlo fitting. Mixed hydrate, which forms during the exchange process, is more locally disordered than methane or carbon dioxide hydrates. The behavior of mixed gas species cannot be interpolated from properties of pure compounds, and PDF measurements provide important understanding of how the guest composition impacts overall order in the hydrate structure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evolution of the marker distribution in gyrokinetic $δf$ particle-in-cell simulations

The evolution of the particle weight in a δf particle-in-cell simulation depends on the marker distribution that can evolve in a turbulent field due to turbulent diffusion. When Monte Carlo methods are used to implement the test particle collision operator, or when the particle motion is not strictly Hamiltonian in a collisionless simulation, the marker distribution will evolve along the particle trajectory and, in general, cannot be known exactly. A two-dimensional numerical marker distribution is proposed as an approximation. It is shown to be advantageous over other common methods for evaluating the marker distribution in long-time turbulence simulations. A generalized two-weight δf-method is proposed to mitigate the marker evolution problem.

, Monte Carlo methods↗

DOE OSTI2023

X-ray induced electron and ion fragmentation dynamics in IBr

Characterization of the inner-shell decay processes in molecules containing heavy elements is key to understanding x-ray damage of molecules and materials and for medical applications with Auger-electron-emitting radionuclides. The 1s hole states of heavy atoms can be produced by absorption of tunable x rays and the resulting vacancy decays characterized by recording emitted photons, electrons, and ions. The 1s hole states in heavy elements have large x-ray fluorescence yields that transfer the hole to intermediate electron shells that then decay by sequential Auger-electron transitions that increase the ion’s charge state until the final state is reached. In molecules, the charge is spread across the atomic sites, resulting in dissociation to energetic atomic ions. We have used x-ray/ion coincidence spectroscopy to measure charge states and energies of Iq+ and Brq′+ atomic ions following 1s ionization at the I and Br K-edges of IBr. We present the charge states and kinetic energies of the two correlated fragment ions associated with core-excited states produced during the various steps of the cascades. Here, to understand the dynamics leading to the ion data, we develop a computational model that combines Monte-Carlo/Molecular-Dynamics (MC/MD) simulations with a classical over-the-barrier model to track inner-shell cascades and redistribution of electrons in valence orbitals and nuclear motion of fragments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Weak scaling of the contact distance between two fluctuating interfaces with system size

A pair of flat parallel surfaces, each freely diffusing along the direction of their separation, will eventually come into contact. If the shapes of these surfaces also fluctuate, then contact will occur when their centers-of-mass remain separated by a nonzero distance ℓ. An example of such a situation is the motion of interfaces between two phases at conditions of thermodynamic coexistence, and in particular the annihilation of domain wall pairs under periodic boundary conditions. Here we present a general approach to calculate the probability distribution of the contact distance ℓ and determine how its most likely value ℓ* depends on the surfaces' lateral size L. Using the Edward-Wilkinson equation as a model for interfaces, we demonstrate that ℓ* scales weakly with system size, i.e., the dependence of ℓ* on L for both (1+1)- and (2+1)-dimensional interfaces is such that lim L→∞ (ℓ*/L) = 0. In particular, for (2+1)-dimensional interfaces ℓ* is an algebraic function of logL, a result that is confirmed by computer simulations of slab-shaped domains formed under periodic boundary conditions. Overall, this weak scaling implies that such domains remain topologically intact until ℓ becomes very small compared to the lateral size of the interface, contradicting expectations from equilibrium thermodynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Zeno Monte Carlo for computing observables

The recent development of logical quantum processors marks a pivotal transition from the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era to the fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC) era. These devices have the potential to address classically challenging problems with polynomial computational time using quantum properties. However, they remain susceptible to noise, necessitating noise resilient algorithms. We introduce Quantum Zeno Monte Carlo (QZMC), a classical-quantum hybrid algorithm that demonstrates resilience to device noise and Trotter errors while showing polynomial computational cost for a gapped system. QZMC computes static and dynamic properties without requiring initial state overlap or variational parameters, offering reduced quantum circuit depth.

Han, Mancheon [Korea Institute for Advanced Study ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Beyond curvature-driven grain growth: Insights from fully anisotropic Monte Carlo Potts simulations

Grain boundary (GB) motion away from the center of curvature, termed anti-curvature behavior, has recently been observed in 3D experiments but is not predicted by classical grain growth theory. In this study, we investigate this behavior using a novel, fully anisotropic Monte Carlo Potts (MCP) model that incorporates both misorientation and inclination dependencies of GB energy. We perform 3D grain growth simulations with isotropic and anisotropic GB energies to explore the relationship between GB velocity and curvature. Contrary to the classical relation that velocity is a product of reduced mobility and mean curvature, we observe no consistent correlation between velocity and mean curvature for individual GBs, even under isotropic conditions, though there is correlation between the average velocity and curvature for some cases. The 3D simulations exhibit frequent anti-curvature motion regardless of GB energy anisotropy including with isotropic GBs, though larger curvatures occur with anisotropic GB energy functions that promote low-energy GBs. In 2D simulations, anti-curvature behavior only occurs with the anisotropic functions that favor low-energy GBs. This difference between 2D and 3D results suggests that anti-curvature behavior results in part from the increased freedom of motion intrinsic in 3D GB networks. Furthermore, our results support recent experimental observations that demonstrate that simple curvature-driven models are insufficient for describing GB migration in polycrystals.

Anti-curvature↗

DOE OSTI2026

Classical-Quantum Algorithm for Solving Stochastic Programs

Stochastic programming provides a rigorous mathematical framework for making decisions under uncertainty in a risk-aware manner. Two-stage stochastic programming is, perhaps, the simplest form of this framework. Here the first-stage variables represent decisions that must be made "here and now" in the face of uncertainty, while the second-stage variables are decisions made after uncertain events. However, the broad adoption of stochastic programming has been hindered by computational challenges caused by the two-stage stochastic programming formulation which requires solving an ensemble of optimization problems. Using quantum amplitude estimation (QAE), quantum computers have shown the theoretic ability to compute expectations with Monte-Carlo methods with quadratically fewer samples than classical methods. In this work, we present a quantum algorithm for computing the expectation term using QAE for given first-stage decisions. Further, we detail methods of computing gradient information from the quantum calculation enabling the application of classical gradient-based optimization techniques. The result is a classical-quantum hybrid method of solving two-stage stochastic programs. These techniques are demonstrated with computational experiments based an engineering optimization problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimized Lie–Trotter–Suzuki decompositions for two and three non-commuting terms

Lie–Trotter–Suzuki decompositions are an efficient way to approximate operator exponentials exp ( t H ) when H is a sum of n (non-commuting) terms which, individually, can be exponentiated easily. They are employed in time-evolution algorithms for tensor network states, digital quantum simulation protocols, path integral methods like quantum Monte Carlo, and splitting methods for symplectic integrators in classical Hamiltonian systems. Here, we provide optimized decompositions up to order t 6 . The leading error term is expanded in nested commutators (Hall bases) and we minimize the 1-norm of the coefficients. For n = 2 terms, several of the optima we find are close to those in McLachlan (1995). Generally, our results substantially improve over unoptimized decompositions by Forest, Ruth, Yoshida, and Suzuki. We explain why these decompositions are sufficient to efficiently simulate any one- or two-dimensional lattice model with finite-range interactions. This follows by solving a partitioning problem for the interaction graph.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗