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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Experiment Design and Visualization Techniques for an X-59 Low-boom Variability Study

This presentation outlines the design of experiments approach and data visualization techniques for a simulation study of sonic booms from NASA’s X-59 supersonic aircraft. The X-59 will soon be flown over communities across the contiguous USA as it produces a low-loudness sonic boom, or low-boom. Survey data on human perception of low-booms will be collected to support development of potential future commercial supersonic aircraft noise regulatory standards. The macroscopic atmosphere plays a critical role in the loudness of sonic booms. The extensive sonic boom simulation study presented herein was completed to assess climatological, geographical, and seasonal effects on the variability of the X-59’s low-boom loudness and noise exposure region size in order to inform X-59 community test planning. The loudness and extent of the noise exposure region make up the “sonic boom carpet.” Two spatial and temporal resolutions of atmospheric input data to the simulation were investigated. A Fast Flexible Space-Filling Design was used to select the locations across the USA for the two spatial resolutions. Analysis of simulated X-59 low-boom loudness data within a regional subset of the northeast USA was completed using a bootstrap forest to determine the final spatial and temporal resolution of the countrywide simulation study. Atmospheric profiles from NOAA’s Climate Forecast System Version 2 database were used to generate over one million simulated X-59 carpets at the final selected 138 locations across the USA. Effects of aircraft heading, season, geography, and climate zone on low-boom levels and noise exposure region size were analyzed. Models were developed to estimate loudness metrics throughout the USA for X-59 supersonic cruise overflight, and results were visualized on maps to show geographical and seasonal trends. These results inform regulators and mission planners on expected variations in boom levels and carpet extent from atmospheric variations. Understanding potential carpet variability is important when planning community noise surveys using the X-59.

X-59↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

4pPA1 - Turbulence Effects on Shaped Booms: Central Composite Design of Modeled Atmospheric Turbulence Parameters for Sonic Boom Propagation

Propagation of sonic booms through turbulence reduces mean sonic boom perception metric levels and also causes considerable variability. NASA’s PCBoom suite of sonic boom acoustic propagation modules includes an approximate method for accounting for the effects of turbulence on traditional N-wave sonic booms. The current implementation is ineffective for shaped sonic booms or low-booms, and it also has limited values for turbulence and ambient input parameters. NASA’s future X-59 low-boom community noise surveys require an accurate estimate of the effects of turbulence in regions across the USA, so the module must be improved. This work presents the methods of selecting which ambient and turbulence parameters should be included in an improved PCBoom turbulence module. Turbulence and ambient data were collected from two atmospheric model databases, the Climate Forecast System Version 2 and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5), hourly from 7 AM to 7 PM local time for 10 years at 19 locations across the USA. A fully-factorial propagation analysis using these parameters would be exceedingly computationally expensive. Instead, a central composite design was chosen resulting in 45 combinations of ambient and turbulence parameters. These 45 cases effectively sample the space balancing computational burden.

turbulence↗
NASA NTRS2013

Using Paleo-climate Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections in CMIP5

We present a description of the theoretical framework and best practice for using the paleo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to constrain future projections of climate using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting paleo-climate changes from the present over 3 periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 thousand years before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (8501850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of paleo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitationtemperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with paleoclimate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also find that some comparisons, for instance associated with model variability, are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing timeseries, or show time dependent behaviour, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the paleo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modeling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

paleoclimate↗
NASA NTRS2023

Wheat Crop Traits Conferring High Yield Potential May Also Improve Yield Stability Under Climate Change

Increasing genetic wheat yield potential is considered by many as critical to increasing global wheat yields and production, baring major changes in consumption patterns. Climate change challenges breeding by making target environments less predictable, altering regional productivity and potentially increasing yield variability. Here we used a crop simulation model solution in the SIMPLACE framework to explore yield sensitivity to select trait characteristics (radiation use efficiency [RUE], fruiting efficiency and light extinction coefficient) across 34 locations representing the world’s wheat-producing environments, determining their relationship to increasing yields, yield variability and cultivar performance. The magnitude of the yield increase was trait-dependent and differed between irrigated and rainfed environments. RUE had the most prominent marginal effect on yield, which increased by about 45 % and 33 % in irrigated and rainfed sites, respectively, between the minimum and maximum value of the trait. Altered values of light extinction coefficient had the least effect on yield levels. Higher yields from improved traits were generally associated with increased inter-annual yield variability (measured by standard deviation), but the relative yield variability (as coefficient of variation) remained largely unchanged between base and improved genotypes. This was true under both current and future climate scenarios. In this context, our study suggests higher wheat yields from these traits would not increase climate risk for farmers and the adoption of cultivars with these traits would not be associated with increased yield variability.

Climate change↗
NASA NTRS2004

Anthropogenic Land-use Change and the Dynamics of Amazon Forest Biomass

This project was focused on assessing the effects of prevailing land uses, such as habitat fragmentation, selective logging, and fire, on biomass and carbon storage in Amazonian forests, and on the dynamics of carbon sequestration in regenerating forests. Ancillary goals included developing GIs models to help predict the future condition of Amazonian forests, and assessing the effects of anthropogenic climate change and ENS0 droughts on intact and fragmented forests. Ground-based studies using networks of permanent plots were linked with remote-sensing data (including Landsat TM and AVHRR) at regional scales, and higher-resolution techniques (IKONOS imagery, videography, LIDAR, aerial photographs) at landscape and local scales. The project s specific goals were quite eclectic and included: Determining the effects of habitat fragmentation on forest dynamics, floristic composition, and the various components of above- and below-ground biomass. Assessing historical and physical factors that affect trajectories of forest regeneration and carbon sequestration on abandoned lands. Extrapolating results from local studies of biomass dynamics in fragmented and regenerating forests to landscape and regional scales in Amazonia, using remote sensing and GIS. Testing the hypothesis that intact Amazonian forests are functioning as a significant carbon sink. Examining destructive synergisms between forest fragmentation and fire. Assessing the short-term impacts of selective logging on aboveground biomass. Developing GIS models that integrate current spatial data on forest cover, deforestation, logging, mining, highway and roads, navigable rivers, vulnerability to wild fires, protected areas, and existing and planned infrastructure projects, in an effort to predict the future condition of Brazilian Amazonian forests over the next 20-25 years. Devising predictive spatial models to assess the influence of varied biophysical and anthropogenic predictors on Amazonian deforestation.

Laurance, William F.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Parameterization-Induced Uncertainties and Impacts of Crop Management Harmonization in a Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) combine agronomic or plant growth models with gridded spatial input data to estimate spatially explicit crop yields and agricultural externalities at the global scale. Differences in GGCM outputs arise from the use of different biophysical models, setups, and input data. GGCM ensembles are frequently employed to bracket uncertainties in impact studies without investigating the causes of divergence in outputs. This study explores differences in maize yield estimates from five GGCMs based on the public domain field-scale model Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) that participate in the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison initiative. Albeit using the same crop model, the GGCMs differ in model version, input data, management assumptions, parameterization, and selection of subroutines affecting crop yield estimates via cultivar distributions, soil attributes, and hydrology among others. The analyses reveal inter-annual yield variability and absolute yield levels in the EPIC-based GGCMs to be highly sensitive to soil parameterization and crop management. All GGCMs show an intermediate performance in reproducing reported yields with a higher skill if a static soil profile is assumed or sufficient plant nutrients are supplied. An in-depth comparison of setup domains for two EPIC-based GGCMs shows that GGCM performance and plant stress responses depend substantially on soil parameters and soil process parameterization, i.e. hydrology and nutrient turnover, indicating that these often neglected domains deserve more scrutiny. For agricultural impact assessments, employing a GGCM ensemble with its widely varying assumptions in setups appears the best solution for coping with uncertainties from lack of comprehensive global data on crop management, cultivar distributions and coefficients for agro-environmental processes. However, the underlying assumptions require systematic specifications to cover representative agricultural systems and environmental conditions. Furthermore, the interlinkage of parameter sensitivity from various domains such as soil parameters, nutrient turnover coefficients, and cultivar specifications highlights that global sensitivity analyses and calibration need to be performed in an integrated manner to avoid bias resulting from disregarded core model domains. Finally, relating evaluations of the EPIC-based GGCMs to a wider ensemble based on individual core models shows that structural differences outweigh in general differences in configurations of GGCMs based on the same model, and that the ensemble mean gains higher skill from the inclusion of structurally different GGCMs. Although the members of the wider ensemble herein do not consider crop-soil-management interactions, their sensitivity to nutrient supply indicates that findings for the EPIC-based sub-ensemble will likely become relevant for other GGCMs with the progressing inclusion of such processes.

Folberth, Christian↗
NASA NTRS1980

Estimation of effective hydrologic properties of soils from observations of vegetation density

An existing one-dimensional model of the annual water balance is reviewed. Slight improvements are made in the method of calculating the bare soil component of evaporation, and in the way surface retention is handled. A natural selection hypothesis, which specifies the equilibrium vegetation density for a given, water limited, climate-soil system, is verified through comparisons with observed data and is employed in the annual water balance of watersheds in Clinton, Ma., and Santa Paula, Ca., to estimate effective areal average soil properties. Comparison of CDF's of annual basin yield derived using these soil properties with observed CDF's provides excellent verification of the soil-selection procedure. This method of parameterization of the land surface should be useful with present global circulation models, enabling them to account for both the non-linearity in the relationship between soil moisture flux and soil moisture concentration, and the variability of soil properties from place to place over the Earth's surface.

Tellers, T. E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Exploring and Analyzing Climate Variations Online by Using NASA MERRA-2 Data at GES DISC

NASA Giovanni (Goddard Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure) (http:giovanni.sci.gsfc.nasa.govgiovanni) is a web-based data visualization and analysis system developed by the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Current data analysis functions include Lat-Lon map, time series, scatter plot, correlation map, difference, cross-section, vertical profile, and animation etc. The system enables basic statistical analysis and comparisons of multiple variables. This web-based tool facilitates data discovery, exploration and analysis of large amount of global and regional remote sensing and model data sets from a number of NASA data centers. Long term global assimilated atmospheric, land, and ocean data have been integrated into the system that enables quick exploration and analysis of climate data without downloading, preprocessing, and learning data. Example data include climate reanalysis data from NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) which provides data beginning in 1980 to present; land data from NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), which assimilates data from 1948 to 2012; as well as ocean biological data from NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM), which provides data from 1998 to 2012. This presentation, using surface air temperature, precipitation, ozone, and aerosol, etc. from MERRA-2, demonstrates climate variation analysis with Giovanni at selected regions.

knowledge base↗
NASA NTRS1992

A test of ecological optimality for semiarid vegetation

Three ecological optimality hypotheses which have utility in parameter reduction and estimation in a climate-soil-vegetation water balance model are reviewed and tested. The first hypothesis involves short term optimization of vegetative canopy density through equilibrium soil moisture maximization. The second hypothesis involves vegetation type selection again through soil moisture maximization, and the third involves soil genesis through plant induced modification of soil hydraulic properties to values which result in a maximum rate of biomass productivity.

Salvucci, Guido D.↗
NASA NTRS2018

NASA IceCube: CubeSat Demonstration of a Commercial 883-GHz Cloud Radiometer

On April 18 2017, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's IceCube 3U CubeSat was launched by an ATLAS V rocket from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on board a Cygnus resupply spacecraft, as part of NASA's CubeSat Launch Initiative. Onboard IceCube was an 883 GHz radiometer tuned to detecting ice content in clouds, marking the first time such frequency was used from low-Earth orbit. IceCube successfully demonstrated retrieval of ice water path, generating the first ever global cloud ice map at 883 GHz. Its success provides valuable lessons on how to approach a severely resource-limited space mission and provides great insight into how this experience can be applied to future high-risk, "non-class" missions for NASA and others. IceCube marks the first official NASA Earth Science CubeSat technology demonstration mission. The spacecraft was completed in about 2.5 years starting April 2014 through launch provider delivery in December of 2016. The mission was jointly funded by NASA's Earth Science Technology Office, after competitive selection, and by NASA's Earth Science Directorate. IceCube began its technology demonstration mission in June 2017, providing a pathway to advancing the understanding of ice clouds and their role in climate models; quite a tall order for a tiny spacecraft.

Radiometer↗
NASA NTRS1978

The human element in technology transfer

A transfer model composed of three roles and their linkages was considered. This model and a growing body of experience was analyzed to provide guidance in the human elements of technology transfer. For example, criteria for selection of technology transfer agents was described, and some needed working climate factors were known. These concepts were successfully applied to transfer activities.

Peake, H. J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Global Precipitation Measurement Mission: Architecture and Mission Concept

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is a collaboration between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), and other partners, with the goal of monitoring the diurnal and seasonal variations in precipitation over the surface of the earth. These measurements will be used to improve current climate models and weather forecasting, and enable improved storm and flood warnings. This paper gives an overview of the mission architecture and addresses some of the key trades that have been completed, including the selection of the Core Observatory s orbit, orbit maintenance trades, and design issues related to meeting orbital debris requirements.

Bundas, David↗
NASA NTRS2012

Geostationary Carbon Process Mapper (GCPM)

Geostationary Carbon Process Mapper (GCPM) is an earth science mission to measure key atmospheric trace gases related to climate change and human activity.Understanding of sources and sinks of CO2 is currently limited by frequency of observations and uncertainty in vertical transport. GCPM improves this situation by making simultaneous high resolution measurements of CO2, CH4, CF, and CO in near-IR, many times per day. GCPM is able to investigate processes with time scales of minutes to hours. CO2, CH4, CF, Co selected because their combination provides information needed to disentangle natural and anthropogenic sources/sinks. Quasi-continuous monitoring effectively eliminates atmospheric transport uncertainties from source/sink inversion modeling. will have one instrument (GeoFTS), hosted on a commercial communications satellite, planned for two years operation. GCPM will affordably advance the understanding of observed cycle variability improving future climate projections.

Carbon Process↗
NASA NTRS1979

Development of LACIE CCEA-1 weather/wheat yield models

The advantages and disadvantages of the casual (phenological, dynamic, physiological), statistical regression, and analog approaches to modeling for grain yield are examined. Given LACIE's primary goal of estimating wheat production for the large areas of eight major wheat-growing regions, the statistical regression approach of correlating historical yield and climate data offered the Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment the greatest potential return within the constraints of time and data sources. The basic equation for the first generation wheat-yield model is given. Topics discussed include truncation, trend variable, selection of weather variables, episodic events, strata selection, operational data flow, weighting, and model results.

Strommen, N. D.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, Volume 41 : GDIS Workshop Report

The workshop "An International Global Drought Information System Workshop: Next Steps" was held on 10-13 December 2014 in Pasadena, California. The more than 60 participants from 15 countries spanned the drought research community and included select representatives from applications communities as well as providers of regional and global drought information products. The workshop was sponsored and supported by the US National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) program, the World Climate Research Program (WCRP: GEWEX, CLIVAR), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program, and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) programs on Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) and Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP). NASA/JPL hosted the workshop with logistical support provided by the GEWEX program office. The goal of the workshop was to build on past Global Drought Information System (GDIS) progress toward developing an experimental global drought information system. Specific goals were threefold: (i) to review recent research results focused on understanding drought mechanisms and their predictability on a wide range of time scales and to identify gaps in understanding that could be addressed by coordinated research; (ii) to help ensure that WRCP research priorities mesh with efforts to build capacity to address drought at the regional level; and (iii) to produce an implementation plan for a short duration pilot project to demonstrate current GDIS capabilities. See http://www.wcrp-climate.org/gdis-wkshp-2014-objectives for more information.

GEO↗
NASA NTRS1995

Low-frequency variability and wavenumber selection in models with zonally symmetric forcing

The authors consider a two-layer quasigeostrophic model with linear surface drag and forcing that relaxes to a zonal baroclinically unstable equilibrium state consisting of a meridionally confined temperature gradient. It is observed that the most energetic wave in the time-mean climate has near zero frequency and is not driven by upscale nonlinear energy transfers. This wave has a zonal scale near the long-wave cutoff of the equilibrium state, and its energy balance is mainly between baroclinic generation and dissipation. This maintenance mechanism is different from that suggested by beta-plane, two-dimensional, and quasigeostrophic turbulence arguments and may be relevant to the dynamics of zonally asymmetric low-frequency variability in the atmosphere, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere.

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Spectral Band Adjustment Factors for Cross-Calibration of Visible Imagers

The CERES EBAF dataset provides TOA SW and LW fluxes for long-term monitoring of the Earth’s energy balance and to validate climate models. The EBAF products, based on the Terra and Aqua CERES instrument observed radiances, rely on coincident measurements from the onboard MODIS imagers to determine cloud properties that are used in the angular distribution model scene selection required to convert the CERES observed radiances into flux values. Once the Terra and Aqua orbits start drifting outside of their 15-minute window, the CERES project will rely solely on the NOAA-20 CERES observations. A seamless transition of fluxes and clouds can only occur if the analogous MODIS and VIIRS channels are properly inter-calibrated. The visible band (0.65 µm) in MODIS (band 1) and VIIRS (M5 or I1) is critical for retrieving the cloud mask and optical depth. The spectral response functions (SRF) of these bands differ noticeably and will require scene dependent spectral band adjustment factors (SBAF) for proper radiometric scaling between them. Fortunately, the VIIRS I1 and M5 bands are calibrated using the same solar diffuser as a reference, which implies that band reflectance differences must be due to the spectral disparity. The coincident I1 and M5 TOA reflectance measurements provide the optimal opportunity to validate SBAFs over many surface and cloud conditions. The CERES project maintains SCIAMACHY, GOME-2, Hyperion, and radiative transfer model-based scene-stratified hyper-spectral reflectance measurements that can be convolved with sensor pair SRFs to compute the corresponding SBAF. This study will evaluate the SCIAMACHY, GOME-2, Hyperion, and RTM based SBAFs over tropical ocean targets used in SNO inter-calibration of MODIS and VIIRS, including clear-sky ocean, deep convective clouds (DCC), and liquid cloud targets in terms of their applicability to absolute intercomparison of visible imagers. The large SCIAMACHY and GOME-2 footprints and the lack of Hyperion cloudy scenes will impact the resulting SBAFs and necessitates the need for future CLARREO hyper-spectral reflectances to decrease SBAF uncertainties Preliminary results indicate that the SCIAMACHY and GOME-2 based SBAFs for the VIIRS I1 and M5 band pairs may differ by 1.5% for some ATO scene types. Because most of the modern GEOs visible band SRFs encompass the VIIRS I1 band SRF, these evaluations are critical to ensure that the MODIS, VIIRS, and GEO clouds and fluxes are consistent. SBAFs for Libya-4, Dome-C and other Earth invariant target will also be evaluated.

D. R. Doelling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Spectral Band Adjustment Factors for Cross-Calibration of Visible Imagers

The NASA CERES EBAF dataset provides TOA SW and LW fluxes for long-term monitoring of the Earth’s energy balance and to validate climate models. The EBAF products, based on the Terra, Aqua, and NOAA20 CERES instrument observed radiances, rely on coincident measurements from the onboard MODIS or VIIRS imagers to determine cloud properties used for angular distribution model scene selection, which is required to convert the CERES observed radiances into flux values. Furthermore, CERES utilizes geostationary imager (GEO) hourly fluxes and clouds to infer the regional averaged daily flux in the SYN1deg product. A seamless transition of fluxes and clouds can only occur if the analogous MODIS, VIIRS, and GEO channels are properly inter-calibrated. The analogous band SRFs differ noticeably and require scene dependent spectral band adjustment factors (SBAF) for proper radiometric scaling between them. Given their disparate but overlapping SRFs, the coincident VIIRS I1 and M5 band TOA reflectance measurements provide the optimal opportunity to validate SBAFs over many surface and cloud conditions. The CERES project maintains SCIAMACHY, GOME-2, and Hyperion scene-stratified hyper-spectral reflectance measurements that can be convolved with sensor pair SRFs to compute the corresponding SBAF. This study highlights the SCIAMACHY, GOME-2, and Hyperion based SBAFs for different MODIS, VIIRS, and GEO inter-calibration targets, including all-sky tropical ocean (ATO), Libya-4, Dome-C, and deep convective clouds. To mitigate the observed sensor radiance fluctuations due to atmospheric absorption and aerosol variations, the Earth target observed radiances are correlated with multiple atmospheric parameters, such as precipitable water and ozone. The remaining M5 and I1 mean spectral band radiance difference should be resolved by the SBAF correction. The formulation of hyper-spectral sensor based SBAFs and validation methods can be verified in future utilizing high-accuracy, SI-traceable hyper-spectral measurements from CLARREO Pathfinder.

David R Doelling↗