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NASA NTRS2015

Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.

Baker, Noel C.↗

NASA NTRS2015

ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders Climate Change and Cities: Second Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network

ARC3.2 presents a broad synthesis of the latest scientific research on climate change and cities. Mitigation and adaptation climate actions of 100 cities are documented throughout the 16 chapters, as well as online through the ARC3.2 Case Study Docking Station. Pathways to Urban Transformation, Major Findings, and Key Messages are highlighted here in the ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders. These sections lay out what cities need to do achieve their potential as leaders of climate change solutions. UCCRN Regional Hubs in Europe, Latin America, Africa, Australia and Asia will share ARC3.2 findings with local city leaders and researchers. The ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders synthesizes Major Findings and Key Messages on urban climate science, disasters and risks, urban planning and design, mitigation and adaptation, equity and environmental justice, economics and finance, the private sector, urban ecosystems, urban coastal zones, public health, housing and informal settlements, energy, water, transportation, solid waste, and governance. These were based on climate trends and future projections for 100 cities around the world.

Ecosystems↗

NASA NTRS2017

Characterizing Agricultural Impacts of Recent Large-Scale US Droughts and Changing Technology and Management

Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

Climate extremes; Drought impacts; Agriculture; Se↗

NASA NTRS2023

Historical Changes in Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation Can Accelerate Global Warming

Mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change depend on accurate climate projections for the coming decades. While changes in radiative heat fluxes are known to contribute to surface warming, changes to ocean circulation can also impact the rate of surface warming. Previous studies suggest that projected changes to ocean circulation reduce the rate of global warming. However, these studies consider large greenhouse gas forcing scenarios, which induce a significant buoyancy-driven decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here, we use a climate model to quantify the previously unknown impact of changes to wind-driven ocean circulation on global surface warming. Wind-driven ocean circulation changes amplify the externally forced warming rate by 17% from 1979 to 2014. Accurately simulating changes to the atmospheric circulation is key to improving near-term climate projections.

wind stress↗

NASA NTRS2014

Climate Change Potential Impacts on the Built Environment and Possible Adaptation Strategies

The built environment consists of components that exist at a range of scales from small (e.g., houses, shopping malls) to large (e.g., transportation networks) to highly modified landscapes such as cities. Thus, the impacts of climate change on the built environment may have a multitude of effects on humans and the land. The impact of climate change may be exacerbated by the interaction of different events that singly may be minor, but together may have a synergistic set of impacts that are significant. Also, mechanisms may exist wherein the built environment, particularly in the form of cities, may affect weather and the climate on local and regional scales. Hence, a city may be able to cope with prolonged heat waves, but if this is combined with severe drought, the overall result could be significant or even catastrophic, as accelerating demand for energy to cooling taxes water supplies needed both for energy supply and municipal water needs. This presentation surveys potential climate change impacts on the built environment from the perspective of the National Climate Assessment, and explores adaptation measures that can be employed to mitigate these impacts.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.

Climate-change policyHydrology↗

NASA NTRS1991

The effects of global climate change on Southeast Asia: A survey of likely impacts and problems of adaptation

Study results indicate the likelihood of significant net damages from climate change, in particular damages from sea-level rise and higher temperatures that seem unlikely to be offset by favorable shifts in precipitation and carbon dioxide. Also indicated was the importance of better climate models, in particular models that can calculate climate change on a regional scale appropriate to policy-making. In spite of this potential for damage, there seems to be a low level of awareness and concern, probably caused by the higher priority given to economic growth and reinforced by the great uncertainty in the forecasts. The common property nature of global environment systems also leads to a feeling of helplessness on the part of country governments.

Njoto, Sukrisno↗

NASA NTRS2013

Ground Water and Climate Change

As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

climate change↗

NASA NTRS2020

Characterizing spatiotemporal patterns of crop phenology across North America during 2000–2016 using satellite imagery and agricultural survey data

Crop phenology represents an integrative indicator of climate change and plays a vital role in terrestrial carbon dynamics and sustainable agricultural development. However, spatiotemporal variations of crop phenology remain unclear at large scales. This knowledge gap has hindered our ability to realistically quantify the biogeochemical dynamics in agroecosystems, predict future climate, and make informed decisions for climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study, we improved an EVI-curve-based approach and used it to detect spatiotemporal patterns in cropping intensity and five major phenological stages over North America during 2000–2016 using vegetation index in combination with agricultural survey data and other ancillary maps. Our predicted crop phenological stages showed strong linear relationships with the survey-based datasets, with R(exp 2), RMSEs, and MAEs in the ranges of 0.35 –0.99, three to ten days, and two to eight days, respectively. During the study period, the planting dates were advanced by 0.60 days/year (p < 0.01), and harvesting dates were delayed by 0.78 days/year (p < 0.01) over North America. A minimum temperature increase by 1 °C caused a 4.26-day planting advance (r = −0.50, p < 0. 01) or a 0.66-day harvest delay (r = 0.10, p < 0.01). While, a higher maximum temperature resulted in a planting advance by 4.48 days/°C (r = −0.62, p < 0.01) or a harvest advance by 2.22 days/°C (r = −0.40, p < 0.01). Our analysis illustrated evident spatiotemporal variations in crop phenology in response to climate change and management practices. The derived crop phenological datasets and cropping intensity maps can be used in regional climate assessments and in developing adaptation strategies.

North America↗

NASA NTRS2023

Uncertainty in Land-Use Adaptation Persists Despite Crop Model Projections Showing Lower Impacts Under High Warming

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields and alter resource availability. However, the understanding of the potential of agricultural land-use adaptation and its costs under climate warming is limited. Here, we use a global land system model to assess land-use-based adaptation and its cost under a set of crop model projections, including CO2 fertilization, based on climate model outputs. In our simulations of a low-emissions scenario, the land system responds through slight changes in cropland area in 2100, with costs close to zero. For a high emissions scenario and impacts uncertainty, the response tends toward cropland area changes and investments in technology, with average adaptation costs between −1.5 and +19 US$05 per ton of dry matter per year. Land-use adaptation can reduce adverse climate effects and use favorable changes, like local gains in crop yields. However, variance among high-emissions impact projections creates challenges for effective adaptation planning.

Agriculture↗

NASA NTRS2024

Opinion: Aerosol Remote Sensing Over the Next Twenty Years

More than two decades ago, aerosol remote sensing underwent a revolution with the launch of the Terra and Aqua satellites. Advancement continued via additional launches carrying new passive and active sensors. Capable of retrieving parameters characterizing aerosol loading, rudimentary particle properties and in some cases aerosol layer height, the satellite view of Earth’s aerosol system came into focus.The modeling communities have made similar advances. Now the efforts have continued long enough that we can see developing trends in both remote sensing and modeling communities, allowing us to speculate about the future and how the community will approach aerosol remote sensing twenty years from now. We anticipate technology that will replace today’s standard multi-wavelength radiometers with hyperspectral and/or polarimetry all viewing in multiple angles.These will be supported by advanced active sensors with the ability to measure profiles of aerosol extinction in addition to backscatter. The result will be greater insight into aerosol particle properties. Algorithms will move from being primarily physically-based to include an increasing degree of Machine Learning methods, but physically-based techniques will not go extinct. However, the practice of applying algorithms to a single sensor will be in decline. Retrieval algorithms will encompass multiple sensors and all available ground measurements into a unifying framework, and these inverted products will be ingested directly into assimilation systems, becoming “cyborgs”: half observations, half model. In twenty years we will see a true democratization in space with nations large and small, private organizations and commercial entities of all sizes launching space sensors. With this increasing amount of data and aerosol products available, there will be a lot of bad data. User communities will organize to set standards and the large national space agencies will lead the effort to maintain quality by deploying and maintaining validation ground networks and focused field experiments. Through it all, interest will remain high in the global aerosol system and how that system affects climate, clouds, precipitation and dynamics, air quality, the environment and public health, transport of pathogens and fertilization of ecosystems, and how these processes are adapting to a changing climate.

aerosol remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2024

The Economics of Farming Expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado Under Possible Effects of Climate Change

This analysis assesses the financial viability of legally investing in native Cerrado vegetation deforestation for crop production, considering climate change. The study uses data from twelve different crop models based on three different climate models to predict potential future crop yields in cleared land for growing soy and maize. The outcomes show that in many micro-regions, investments in clearing land for crop production would destroy economic value, that is, generate a negative net present value because of low/negative and volatile cashflows driven primarily by future yields as affected by climate. Our analysis was carried out based on present agricultural practices and technology. As climate changes, farmers may adapt their practices, which can lead to more resilient and productive crops, or grow different crops, which could provide better returns on investment in clearing land than the ones resulting from our analysis. Despite various uncertainties, farmers, policy makers and financial institutions should be aware of the climatic and financial risks associated with land clearing in Brazil, mainly in micro-regions in which all scenarios resulted in negative outcomes in the investment analysis.

agricultural expansion↗

NASA NTRS2015

Perspectives on Climate Effects on Agriculture: The International Efforts of AgMIP in Sub-Saharan Africa

Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is experiencing climate change-related effects that call for integrated regional assessments, yet capacity for these assessments has been low. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is advancing research on integrated regional assessments of climate change that include climate, crop, and economic modeling and analysis. Through AgMIP, regional integrated assessments are increasingly gaining momentum in SSA, and multi-institutional regional research teams (RRTs) centered in East, West, and Southern· Africa are generating new information on climate change impacts and adaptation in selected agricultural systems. The research in Africa is organized into four RRTs and a coordination team. Each of the RRTs in SSA is composed of scientists from the Consultative Group of International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) institutions, National Agriculture Research institutes (NARs), and universities consisting of experts in crop and economic modeling, climate, and information technology. Stakeholder involvement to inform specific agricultural systems to be evaluated, key outputs, and the representative agricultural pathways (RAPs), is undertaken at two levels: regional and national, in order to contribute to decision making at these levels. Capacity building for integrated assessment (lA) is a key component that is undertaken continuously through interaction with experts in regional and SSA-wide workshops, and through joint creation of tools. Many students and research affiliates have been identified and entrained as part of capacity building in IA. Bi-monthly updates on scholarly publications in climate change in Africa also serve as a vehicle for knowledge-sharing. With 60 scientists already trained and actively engaged in IA and over 80 getting monthly briefs on the latest information on climate change, a climate-informed community of experts is gradually taking shape in SSA. (See Part 2, Appendices 3-5 in this volume for AgMIP Regional Workshop reports.)

Kihara, Job↗

NASA NTRS2013

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality Across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture regional-scale changes in temperatures and precipitation. We use a regional climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale the GCM's large-scale signal to investigate the changes in regional and local extremes of temperature and precipitation that may result from a changing climate. In this paper, we show preliminary results from downscaling the NASA/GISS ModelE IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 scenario. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices (1995-2005 and 2025-2035) and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0. The regional climate change scenario is further processed using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to explore influences of regional climate change on air quality.

Air quality control↗

NASA NTRS2017

Impact of Climate Change on Heat-Related Mortality in Jiangsu Province, China

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.

projection↗

NASA NTRS2014

Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

farm crops↗

NASA NTRS2013

Researcher-driven Campaigns Engage Nature's Notebook Participants in Scientific Data Collection

One of the many benefits of citizen science projects is the capacity they hold for facilitating data collection on a grand scale and thereby enabling scientists to answer questions they would otherwise not been able to address. Nature's Notebook, the plant and animal phenology observing program of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) suitable for scientists and non-scientists alike, offers scientifically-vetted data collection protocols and infrastructure and mechanisms to quickly reach out to hundreds to thousands of potential contributors. The USA-NPN has recently partnered with several research teams to engage participants in contributing to specific studies. In one example, a team of scientists from NASA, the New Mexico Department of Health, and universities in Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and California are using juniper phenology observations submitted by Nature's Notebookparticipants to improve predictions of pollen release and inform asthma and allergy alerts. In a second effort, researchers from the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science are engaging Nature's Notebookparticipants in tracking leafing phenophases of poplars across the U.S. These observations will be compared to information acquired via satellite imagery and used to determine geographic areas where the tree species are most and least adapted to predicted climate change. Researchers in these partnerships receive benefits primarily in the form of ground observations. Launched in 2010, the juniper pollen effort has engaged participants in several western states and has yielded thousands of observations that can play a role in model ground validation. Periodic evaluation of these observations has prompted the team to improve and enhance the materials that participants receive, in an effort to boost data quality. The poplar project is formally launching in spring of 2013 and will run for three years; preliminary findings from 2013 will be presented. Participants in these special campaigns benefit through direct engagement in science. This form of researcher partnership has now been successfully pilot-tested and implemented in several instances, and provides a template for future research project campaigns.

Crimmins, Theresa M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Researcher-driven Campaigns Engage Nature's Notebook Participants in Scientific Data Collection

One of the many benefits of citizen science projects is the capacity they hold for facilitating data collection on a grand scale and thereby enabling scientists to answer questions they would otherwise not been able to address. Nature's Notebook, the plant and animal phenology observing program of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) suitable for scientists and non-scientists alike, offers scientifically-vetted data collection protocols and infrastructure and mechanisms to quickly reach out to hundreds to thousands of potential contributors. The USA-NPN has recently partnered with several research teams to engage participants in contributing to specific studies. In one example, a team of scientists from NASA, the New Mexico Department of Health, and universities in Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and California are using juniper phenology observations submitted by Nature's Notebookparticipants to improve predictions of pollen release and inform asthma and allergy alerts. In a second effort, researchers from the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science are engaging Nature's Notebookparticipants in tracking leafing phenophases of poplars across the U.S. These observations will be compared to information acquired via satellite imagery and used to determine geographic areas where the tree species are most and least adapted to predicted climate change. Results/Conclusions Researchers in these partnerships receive benefits primarily in the form of ground observations. Launched in 2010, the juniper pollen effort has engaged participants in several western states and has yielded thousands of observations that can play a role in model ground validation. Periodic evaluation of these observations has prompted the team to improve and enhance the materials that participants receive, in an effort to boost data quality. The poplar project is formally launching in spring of 2013 and will run for three years; preliminary findings from 2013 will be presented. Participants in these special campaigns benefit through direct engagement in science. This form of researcher partnership has now been successfully pilot-tested and implemented in several instances, and provides a template for future research project campaigns.

Crimmins, Theresa M.↗