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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

The Importance of Convective Stage on Out-of-Cloud Convectively Induced Turbulence from High-Resolution Simulations

Turbulence (clear-air, mountain wave, convectively induced) is an aviation hazard that is a challenge to forecast due to the coarse resolution ultilized in operational weather models. Turbulence indices are commonly used to aid pilots in avoiding turbulence, but these indices have been designed and calibrated for midlatitude clear-air turbulence prediction (e.g., the Ellrod index). A significant limitation with current convectively induced turbulence (CIT) prediction is the lack of storm stage dependency. In this study, six high-resolution simulations of tropical oceanic and midlatitude continental convection are performed to characterize the turbulent environment near various convective types during the developing and mature stages. Second-order structure functions, a diagnostic commonly used to identify turbulence in turbulence prediction systems, are used to characterize the probability of turbulence for various convective types. Turbulence likelihood was found to be independent of region (i.e., tropical vs midlatitude) but dependent on convective stage. The probability of turbulence increased near developing convection for the majority of cases. Additional analysis of static stability and vertical wind shear, indicators of turbulence potential, showed that the convective environment near developing convection was more favorable for turbulence production than mature convection. Near developing convection, static stability decreased and vertical wind shear increased. Vertical wind shear near mature and developing convection was found to be weakly correlated to turbulence intensity in both the tropics and the midlatitudes. Finally, this study emphasizes the need for turbulence avoidance guidelines for the aviation community that are dependent on convective stage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tropical Cirrus in Global Storm-Resolving Models: 1. Role of Deep Convection

Pervasive cirrus clouds in the upper troposphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) influence the climate by altering the top-of-atmosphere radiation balance and stratospheric water vapor budget. These cirrus are often associated with deep convection, which global climate models must parameterize and struggle to accurately simulate. By comparing high-resolution global storm-resolving models from the Dynamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) intercomparison that explicitly simulate deep convection to satellite observations, we assess how well these models simulate deep convection, convectively generated cirrus, and deep convective injection of water into the TTL over representative tropical land and ocean regions. The DYAMOND models simulate deep convective precipitation, organization, and cloud structure fairly well over land and ocean regions, but with clear intermodel differences. All models produce frequent overshooting convection whose strongest updrafts humidify the TTL and are its main source of frozen water. Intermodel differences in cloud properties and convective injection exceed differences between land and ocean regions in each model. We argue that, with further improvements, global storm-resolving models can better represent tropical cirrus and deep convection in present and future climates than coarser-resolution climate models. To realize this potential, they must use available observations to perfect their ice microphysics and dynamical flow solvers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Summertime Continental Shallow Cumulus Cloud Detection Using GOES-16 Satellite and Ground-Based Stereo Cameras at the DOE ARM Southern Great Plains Site

Summertime continental shallow cumulus clouds (ShCu) are detected using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-16 reflectance data, with cross-validation by observations from ground-based stereo cameras at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site. A ShCu cloudy pixel is identified when the GOES reflectance exceeds the clear-sky surface reflectance by a reflectance detection threshold of ShCu, ΔR. We firstly construct diurnally varying clear-sky surface reflectance maps and then estimate the ΔR. A GOES simulator is designed, projecting the clouds reconstructed by stereo cameras towards the surface along the satellite’s slanted viewing direction. The dynamic ShCu detection threshold ΔR is determined by making the GOES cloud fraction (CF) equal to the CF from the GOES simulator. Although there are temporal variabilities in ΔR, cloud fractions and cloud size distributions can be well reproduced using a constant ΔR value of 0.045. The method presented in this study enables daytime ShCu detection, which is usually falsely reported as clear sky in the GOES-16 cloud mask data product. Using this method, a new ShCu dataset can be generated to bridge the observational gap in detecting ShCu, which may transition into deep precipitating clouds, and to facilitate further studies on ShCu development over heterogenous land surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mesoscale Cellular Convection Detection and Classification Using Convolutional Neural Networks: Insights From Long-Term Observations at ARM Eastern North Atlantic Site

Marine boundary layer clouds are crucial in Earth's climate system. They frequently manifest as closed or open cell mesoscale cellular convection (MCC). MCC clouds are challenging to represent accurately in current climate models, highlighting the need for detailed observational data sets and in-depth analyses. This study utilizes over 8 years of observations from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site at Graciosa Island, Azores, to investigate these clouds. We first apply a convolutional neural network with a U-Net architecture to classify open and closed cells, marking the first application of such an approach for automatically detecting MCC patterns from ground-based radar measurements. This method addresses some observational gaps in satellite data related to low temporal resolution, nighttime challenges, and limited vertical structure capture. The analysis of the MCC cases shows clear differences between closed and open MCCs: Closed MCC clouds are characterized by lower cloud tops and bases, shallower cloud geometrical depth, weaker horizontal wind speeds, stronger atmospheric stability, and a more homogeneous liquid water path than open MCCs. Finally, we demonstrate two potential applications of our radar-based MCC classifications: (a) facilitating the investigation of aerosol-cloud interactions and (b) exploring meteorological factors along with MCC's evolution by integrating satellite imagery and back-trajectory analysis. The identified MCC cases offer a valuable resource for the scientific community to study MCC processes further and improve climate model accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optical Properties of Individual Tar Balls in the Free Troposphere

Tar balls are brown carbonaceous particles, highly viscous, spherical, amorphous, and light absorbing. They are believed to form in biomass burning smoke plumes during transport in the troposphere. Tar balls are believed to have a significant impact on the Earth’s radiative balance, but due to poorly characterized optical properties, this impact is highly uncertain. Here, we investigate the chemical composition and optical properties of individual tar balls transported in the free troposphere to the Climate Observatory “Ottavio Vittori” on Mt. Cimone, Italy (2165 meters above sea level) using multi-modal micro-spectroscopy. Our results show that tar balls contributed 50% of carbonaceous particles by number in the size range from 0.25 to 1.8 µm. Of those tar balls, 16% were inhomogeneously mixed with other constituents. Using electron energy loss spectroscopy, we retrieved the complex refractive index from 200 to 1200 nm for both inhomogeneously and homogeneously mixed tar balls. We found no significant difference in the average refractive index of inhomogeneously and homogenously mixed tar balls (1.40 - 0.03i, and 1.36 - 0.03i at 550 nm, respectively). Furthermore, we estimated the top of the atmosphere radiative forcing using the Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer model (SBDART) and found that a layer of only tar balls with an optical depth of 0.1 above vegetation would exert a positive radiative forcing ranging from 2.8 Wm-2 (on a clear sky day) to 9.5 Wm-2 (when clouds are below the aerosol layer). In conclusion, understanding the optical properties of tar balls can help reduce uncertainties associated with the contribution of biomass-burning aerosol in current climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Changes to the Appearance of Optical Lightning Flashes Observed From Space According to Thunderstorm Organization and Structure

Optical lightning observations from space reveal a wide range of flash structure. Lightning imagers such as the Geostationary Lightning Mapper and Lightning Imaging Sensor measure flash appearance by recording transient changes in cloud top illumination. The spatial and temporal optical energy distributions reported by these instruments depend on the physical structure of the flash and the distribution of hydrometeors within the thundercloud that scatter and absorb the optical emissions. This study reported herein explores how flash appearance changes according to the scale and organization of the parent thunderstorms with a focus on mesoscale convective systems. Clouds near the storm edge are frequently illuminated by large optical flashes that remain stationary between groups. These flashes appear large because their emissions can reflect off the exposed surfaces of nearby clouds to reach the satellite. Large stationary flashes also occur in small isolated thunderstorms. Optical flashes that propagate horizontally, meanwhile, are most frequently observed in electrified stratiform regions where extensive layered charge structures promote lateral development. Highly radiant “superbolts” occur in two scenarios: embedded within raining stratiform regions or in nonraining boundary/anvil clouds where optical emissions can take a relatively clear path to the satellite.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Near‐Cloud Aerosol Retrieval Using Machine Learning Techniques, and Implied Direct Radiative Effects

Abstract There is a lack of satellite‐based aerosol retrievals in the vicinity of low‐topped clouds, mainly because reflectance from aerosols is overwhelmed by three‐dimensional cloud radiative effects. To account for cloud radiative effects on reflectance observations, we develop a Convolutional Neural Network and retrieve aerosol optical depth (AOD) with 100–500 m horizontal resolution for all cloud‐free regions regardless of their distances to clouds. The retrieval uncertainty is 0.01 + 5%AOD, and the mean bias is approximately −2%. In an application to satellite observations, aerosol hygroscopic growth due to humidification near clouds enhances AOD by 100% in regions within 1 km of cloud edges. The humidification effect leads to an overall 55% increase in the clear‐sky aerosol direct radiative effect. Although this increase is based on a case study, it highlights the importance of aerosol retrievals in near‐cloud regions, and the need to incorporate the humidification effect in radiative forcing estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Revisiting the Detection of Optical Lightning Superbolts

This study uses Fast On-Orbit Detection of Transient Events (FORTE) satellite observations to identify superbolt-class optical lightning events and evaluate their origins. Superbolts have been defined by Turman as lightning pulses whose peak optical power exceeds 1011 W. However, it has been unclear whether superbolts resulted from particular types of high-energy lightning process or whether they were the result of measurement bias. In the latter case, any decently bright lightning process could be recorded as a superbolt if the sensor had a particularly clear sight line to the hot channel without thick clouds diluting the optical signals. Here, our 12-year analysis of FORTE superbolt detections indicates that the lower optical superbolt energy range (~100 GW) is dominated by normal lightning, but brighter cases are predominantly strong +CG strokes that originate from specific types of storms. Oceanic storm systems, particularly during the winter, and especially those located around Japan are shown to produce these intense superbolts. We suggest that some optical superbolts result from favorable viewing conditions and would not be identified as such by another instrument located elsewhere and that others are associated with a unique set of physics that may merit the “superbolt” distinction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing the Small-Scale Dynamical, Ice Microphysical, and Residual Aerosol Properties of Mid-Latitude Cold Clouds: A Pilot Study (Final Report)

Our understanding of cirrus clouds has been advancing rapidly due to improvements in measurements made inside clouds, computer cloud models, and laboratory experimentation. This advancement in knowledge has made it clear that cirrus are complicated systems where the intricate interactions among dynamic air motions, solar and terrestrial radiation, ice crystal growth, and water and air chemistry can substantially influence cirrus structure and evolution. Measurements made inside clouds have shown that cirrus crystals are often complex with shapes that are often unclassifiable, especially at small sizes. Laboratory measurements have revealed that the ice crystal surface is complex, even at small sizes. Recent laboratory and satellite studies show that this surface complexity modifies the radiative properties of cirrus clouds in important ways. Moreover, observations and computer cloud modeling work show that the larger and smaller scale properties of cirrus are sensitive to the interplay between small-scale air motions and the aerosol articles upon which cirrus ice crystals form. Taken together, these studies indicate that accurately accounting for the radiative properties of cirrus clouds requires knowing the air motions and aerosol properties that influence the number concentration and crystal size, along with an understanding of the surface properties of vapor grown ice. Although this prior work has been illuminating, there have been few studies that provide detailed shape and surface complexity measurements for the small ice crystals that often compose cirrus clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimation of Aerosol Columnar Size Distribution from Spectral Extinction Data in Coastal and Maritime Environment

Aerosol columnar size distributions (SDs) are commonly provided by aerosol inversions based on measurements of both spectral extinction and sky radiance. These inversions developed for a fully clear sky offer few SDs for areas with abundant clouds. Here, we estimate SDs from spectral extinction data alone for cloudy coastal and maritime regions using aerosol refractive index (RI) obtained from chemical composition data. Our estimation involves finding volume and mean radius of lognormally distributed modes of an assumed bimodal size distribution through fitting of the spectral extinction data. We demonstrate that vertically integrated SDs obtained from aircraft measurements over a coastal site have distinct seasonal changes, and these changes are captured reasonably well by the estimated columnar SDs. We also demonstrate that similar seasonal changes occur at a maritime site, and columnar SDs retrieved from the combined extinction and sky radiance measurements are approximated quite well by their extinction only counterparts (correlation exceeds 0.9) during a 7-year period (2013–2019). The level of agreement between the estimated and retrieved SDs depends weakly on wavelength selection within a given spectral interval (roughly 0.4–1 µm). Since the extinction-based estimations can be performed frequently for partly cloudy skies, the number of periods where SDs can be found is greatly increased.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gemini/GMOS Transmission Spectroscopy of the Grazing Planet Candidate WD 1856+534 b

WD 1856+534 b is a Jupiter-sized, cool giant planet candidate transiting the white dwarf WD 1856+534. Here, we report an optical transmission spectrum of WD 1856+534 b obtained from ten transits using the Gemini Multi Object Spectrograph. This system is challenging to observe due to the faintness of the host star and the short transit duration. Nevertheless, our phase-folded white light curve reached a precision of 0.12%. WD 1856+534 b provides a unique transit configuration compared to other known exoplanets: the planet is 8x larger than its star and occults over half of the stellar disk during mid-transit. Consequently, many standard modeling assumptions do not hold. We introduce the concept of a “limb darkening corrected, time-averaged transmission spectrum” and propose that this is more suitable than (R pλ /R s ) 2 for comparisons to atmospheric models for planets with grazing transits. We also present a modified radiative transfer prescription. Though the transmission spectrum shows no prominent absorption features, it is sufficiently precise to constrain the mass of WD 1856+534 b to be >0.84 M J (to 2σ confidence), assuming a clear atmosphere and a Jovian composition. High-altitude cloud decks can allow lower masses. WD 1856+534 b could have formed either as a result of common envelope evolution or migration under the Kozai–Lidov mechanism. Further studies of WD 1856+534 b, alongside new dedicated searches for substellar objects around white dwarfs, will shed further light on the mysteries of post-main-sequence planetary systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Atmospheric clearing of solid-particle debris using femtosecond filaments

Through nonlinear self-focusing, femtosecond pulses can propagate several kilometers beyond diffraction limits, forming an ionization channel in air known as a laser filaments. It has been demonstrated that in the wake of the filament, aerosols can be effectively cleared to improve the transmission of subsequent laser pulses or secondary light sources, pertinent to applications in atmospheric sensing. However, the current understanding of aerosol clearing is founded on interactions with droplets to simulate fogs and clouds and thus does not extend to solid particles or atmospheric debris. Using optical trapping, we isolate both graphite and silica microparticles and directly measure the subsequent displacement caused by the filament using time-resolved shadowgraphy. The shock wave from the filament is demonstrated to propel particles away from the filament, directly contributing to atmospheric debris clearing. Particles exposed to the laser light in either the intense filament core or the surrounding energy reservoir are axially displaced along the beam path. Furthermore, it is found that the optomechanical properties of the particle largely influence the axial displacement induced by laser exposure through mechanisms such as radiation pressure, mass ejection from ablation or optical damage, and particle deagglomeration.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mechanical and Thermal Forcing for Upslope Flows and Cumulus Convection over the Sierras de Córdoba

Abstract The upslope flow processes affecting the vertical extent of orographic cumulus convection are examined using observations from the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign. Specifically, clear air returns from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) second-generation C-band scanning Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) precipitation radar (CSAPR2) are used to characterize the structure and variability of the ridge-normal (i.e., up/downslope) flow components, which transport mass to the crest of Argentina’s Sierras de Córdoba and contribute to convective initiation. Data are compiled for the entire CACTI period (October–April), including days with clear skies, shallow cumuli, cumulus congestus, and deep convection. To examine shared variability among >70 000 radar scans, we use (i) a principal component analysis (PCA) to isolate modes of variability in the upslope flow and (ii) composite analysis based on convective outcomes, determined from GOES-16 satellite observations. These data are contextualized with observed surface sensible heat fluxes, thermodynamic profiles, and synoptic-scale analysis. Results indicate distinct thermally and mechanically forced upslope flow modes, modulated by diurnal heating and synoptic-scale variations, respectively. In some instances, there is a superposition of thermal and mechanical forcing, yielding either deeper or shallower upslope flow. The composite analyses based on satellite data show that successively deeper convective outcomes are associated with successively deeper upslope flow layers that more readily transport mass to the ridge crest in conjunction with lower lifting condensation levels, facilitating convective initiation. These results help to isolate the forcing mechanisms for orographic convection and thus provide a foundation for parameterizing orographic convective processes in coarse resolution models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Incorporation of aerosol into the COSPv2 satellite lidar simulator for climate model evaluation

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosol has substantial impacts on climate, air quality and biogeochemical cycles, and its concentrations are highly variable in space and time. A key variability to evaluate within models that simulate aerosol is the vertical distribution, which influences atmospheric heating profiles and aerosol–cloud interactions, to help constrain aerosol residence time and to better represent the magnitude of simulated impacts. To ensure a consistent comparison between modeled and observed vertical distribution of aerosol, we implemented an aerosol lidar simulator within the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package version 2 (COSPv2). We assessed the attenuated total backscattered (ATB) signal and the backscatter ratios (SRs) at 532 nm in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). The simulator performs the computations at the same vertical resolution as the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), making use of aerosol optics from the E3SMv1 model as inputs and assuming that aerosol is uniformly distributed horizontally within each model grid box. The simulator applies a cloud masking and an aerosol detection threshold to obtain the ATB and SR profiles that would be observed above clouds by CALIOP with its aerosol detection capability. Our analysis shows that the aerosol distribution simulated at a seasonal timescale is generally in good agreement with observations. Over the Southern Ocean, however, the model does not produce the SR maximum as observed in the real world. Comparison between clear-sky and all-sky SRs shows little differences, indicating that the cloud screening by potentially incorrect model clouds does not affect the mean aerosol signal averaged over a season. This indicates that the differences between observed and simulated SR values are due not to sampling errors, but to deficiencies in the representation of aerosol in models. Finally, we highlight the need for future applications of lidar observations at multiple wavelengths to provide insights into aerosol properties and distribution and their representation in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Annual cycle of aerosol properties over the central Arctic during MOSAiC 2019–2020 – light-extinction, CCN, and INP levels from the boundary layer to the tropopause

Abstract. The MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition was the largest Arctic field campaign ever conducted. MOSAiC offered the unique opportunity to monitor and characterize aerosols and clouds with high vertical resolution up to 30 km height at latitudes from 80 to 90∘ N over an entire year (October 2019 to September 2020). Without a clear knowledge of the complex aerosol layering, vertical structures, and dominant aerosol types and their impact on cloud formation, a full understanding of the meteorological processes in the Arctic, and thus advanced climate change research, is impossible. Widespread ground-based in situ observations in the Arctic are insufficient to provide these required aerosol and cloud data. In this article, a summary of our MOSAiC observations of tropospheric aerosol profiles with a state-of-the-art multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar aboard the icebreaker Polarstern is presented. Particle optical properties, i.e., light-extinction profiles and aerosol optical thickness (AOT), and estimates of cloud-relevant aerosol properties such as the number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice-nucleating particles (INPs) are discussed, separately for the lowest part of the troposphere (atmospheric boundary layer, ABL), within the lower free troposphere (around 2000 m height), and at the cirrus level close to the tropopause. In situ observations of the particle number concentration and INPs aboard Polarstern are included in the study. A strong decrease in the aerosol amount with height in winter and moderate vertical variations in summer were observed in terms of the particle extinction coefficient. The 532 nm light-extinction values dropped from >50 Mm−1 close to the surface to <5 Mm−1 at 4–6 km height in the winter months. Lofted, aged wildfire smoke layers caused a re-increase in the aerosol concentration towards the tropopause. In summer (June to August 2020), much lower particle extinction coefficients, frequently as low as 1–5 Mm−1, were observed in the ABL. Aerosol removal, controlled by in-cloud and below-cloud scavenging processes (widely suppressed in winter and very efficient in summer) in the lowermost 1–2 km of the atmosphere, seems to be the main reason for the strong differences between winter and summer aerosol conditions. A complete annual cycle of the AOT in the central Arctic could be measured. This is a valuable addition to the summertime observations with the sun photometers of the Arctic Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). In line with the pronounced annual cycle in the aerosol optical properties, typical CCN number concentrations (0.2 % supersaturation level) ranged from 50–500 cm−3 in winter to 10–100 cm−3 in summer in the ABL. In the lower free troposphere (at 2000 m), however, the CCN level was roughly constant throughout the year, with values mostly from 30 to 100 cm−3. A strong contrast between winter and summer was also given in terms of ABL INPs which control ice production in low-level clouds. While soil dust (from surrounding continents) is probably the main INP type during the autumn, winter, and spring months, local sea spray aerosol (with a biogenic aerosol component) seems to dominate the ice nucleation in the ABL during the summer months (June–August). The strong winter vs. summer contrast in the INP number concentration by roughly 2–3 orders of magnitude in the lower troposphere is, however, mainly caused by the strong cloud temperature contrast. A unique event of the MOSAiC expedition was the occurrence of a long-lasting wildfire smoke layer in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Our observations suggest that the smoke particles frequently triggered cirrus formation close to the tropopause from October 2019 to May 2020.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Maximum Supersaturation in the Marine Boundary Layer Clouds Over the North Atlantic

Abstract The maximum supersaturation ( S x ) in clouds is a key parameter affecting the cloud's microphysical and radiative properties. We investigate the S x of the marine boundary layer clouds by combining airborne and surface observations in the Eastern North Atlantic. The cloud droplet number concentration ( N c ) in the least diluted cloud cores agrees well with the number concentration of particles larger than the Hoppel Minimum (HM) ( N >HM ) below clouds, indicating that the HM represents the average size threshold above which particles are activated to form cloud droplets. The S x values derived from surface observations vary from 0.10% to 0.50% from June 2017 to June 2018, with a clear seasonal variation exhibiting higher values during winter. Most of the S x variance (∼60%) can be explained by the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration and updraft velocity ( w ), with the CCN concentration playing a more important role than w in explaining the variation of S x . The influence of CCN concentration on S x leads to a buffered response of N c to aerosol perturbations. The response of N c to low aerosol concentration during winter is further buffered by the high w . The global Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulated S x values in the Azores have a positive bias compared to measured S x , likely due to overestimated w and underestimated CCN concentration. The CESM simulated S x exhibits higher values further north over the North Atlantic Ocean, which is attributed to stronger w . The suppression of S x by aerosol is also evident in regions with high CCN concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Use of physics to improve solar forecast: Part III, impacts of different cloud types

Cloud-type impacts present a great challenge to solar forecasting due to diverse and complex cloud-radiation interactions. This third part of our paper sequence seeks to address this challenge by quantifying the forecast accuracies under eight cloud types: cumulus (Cu), stratified clouds (St), altocumulus (Ac), altostratus (As), cirrostratus/anvil (Cr), cirrus (Ci), congestus (Co), deep convective clouds (Dc) across four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I. To generalize the cloud impacts, the eight cloud types are further grouped into three cloud categories based on their common features: weak convective clouds, stratiform clouds, and strong convective clouds. Here, the decade-long (2001 ~ 2014) collocated measurements of irradiances and cloud types at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program South Great Plain (SGP) Central Facility site are used for model evaluation. Results reveal a clear performance hierarchy for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI): best for weak convective clouds and cirrus, intermediate for stratiform clouds, and worst for strong convective clouds. Performance for diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) is less influenced by cloud types. Cloud albedo dominates all three irradiances for Dc, while both cloud albedo and cloud fraction are influential for other cloud types. A 12 %~33 % improvement in accuracy at 6-hour lead time compared to the benchmark smart model confirms the effectiveness of incorporating physics into the models for various cloud types; further improvements are expected by directly integrating cloud type information into forecasting models by modifying the physical formulation of cloud-radiation interaction, and/or using more advanced machine learning models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comments on 'Do ultrafine cloud condensation nuclei invigorate deep convection?'

Here we elaborated on the deficiencies associated with the theoretical arguments and model simulations in Grawbowski and Morrison (2020; GM20), and showed that the concept of convective invigoration by aerosols can be supported by both accurate theoretical analysis and explicit physics modeling with prognostic aerosols and supersaturation. Above the freezing level, droplet freezing itself does not change mass loading and the latent heat release resulting from freezing leads to an increase in the buoyancy. The derivation in GM20 is erroneous because of omitting the liquid water sink term. They also ignored the effect of enhanced latent heating from the subsequent growth processes (deposition and riming) after freezing. Regarding aerosol effect on condensational growth, the quasi-steady assumption for supersaturation as adopted in GM20 is invalidated especially when droplet number concentration is low and updraft is strong from both theoretical analysis and our bin microphysics modeling results. The quasi-steady assumption makes condensation independent of droplet number and size and therefore reduces the overall aerosol effects on cloud dynamics. Studying aerosol effects on clouds particularly deep convective clouds requires the exact solution of supersaturation. Any assumption imposed to supersaturation such as saturation adjustment and quasi-steady approximation leads to incorrect aerosol effects on diffusional growth. The exact supersaturation equation clearly shows that condensation depends on droplet number and size, and more droplets in the polluted clouds increase condensation (thus lower supersaturation), leading to enhanced buoyancy and updraft speeds.

Convective invigoration, deep convective clouds, a↗