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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

Little influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude climate

Observations and model simulations show enhanced warming in the Arctic under increasing greenhouse gases, a phenomenon known as the Arctic amplification (AA), that is likely caused by sea-ice loss. AA reduces meridional temperature gradients linked to circulation, thus mid-latitude weather and climate changes have been attributed to AA, often on the basis of regression analysis and atmospheric simulations. However, other modelling studies show only a weak link. This inconsistency may result from deficiencies in separating the effects of AA from those of natural variability or background warming. In this work, using coupled model simulations with and without AA, we show that cold-season precipitation, snowfall and circulation changes over northern mid-latitudes come mostly from background warming. AA and sea-ice loss increase precipitation and snowfall above ~60° N and reduce meridional temperature gradients above ~45° N in the lower–mid troposphere. However, minimal impact on the mean climate is seen below ~60° N, with weak reduction in zonal wind over 50°–70° N and 150–700 hPa, mainly over the North Atlantic and northern central Asia. These results suggest that the climatic impacts of AA are probably small outside the high latitudes, thus caution is needed in attributing mid-latitude changes to AA and sea-ice loss on the basis of statistical analyses that cannot distinguish the impact of AA from other correlated changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

It's All About the Envelope: Prioritizing Envelope Upgrades for Electrification of Cold Climate Homes

Building decarbonization via electrification on a clean grid is the most promising climate solution proposed to date for the building sector. In cold climate zones, building electrification will be driven in large part by moving from natural gas space heating to cold climate heat pumps (CCHPs). CCHPs are commercially available today, including economical cold climate air source heat pumps (ccASHPs). But there's one big problem - wide-scale adoption of ccASHPs will dramatically increase winter peak electricity demand, even with the highest efficiency ccASHP products. Furthermore, cold climate space heating loads will drive unprecedented electric system peaks during the lowest periods of renewable generation and are likely to overwhelm existing distribution systems. This scenario is avoidable by coupling electrification with building envelope upgrades to reduce peak heating loads. This paper presents a model, built from home energy audit and research data sets, that quantifies the above challenges. Results demonstrate how weatherization efforts coupled with additional high-performance envelope upgrade measures can prepare the building stock for electrification and show the benefit these measures can bring to future utility operations. Much of this envelope upgrade work is cost-effective, according to conservative cost-benefit testing and program successes to date, and is coupled with substantial non-energy benefits. However, persistent market barriers have made scaling of envelope retrofit work challenging for decades, suggesting additional policy support is required. Lessons learned from previous policy experience, combined with new technology and administrative support, create exciting potential for this decarbonization climate solution.

air sealing↗

Building Energy Analysis of Manufactured and Multifamily Housing Types in Juneau, Alaska

This report details the results of building energy modeling analysis evaluating the potential energy savings, economic outcomes, and grid-level electricity reduction associated with cold climate air source heat pump (ccASHP) adoption across multifamily and manufactured housing (MMFH) building typologies in the City and Borough of Juneau (CBJ). Three building archetypes were evaluated: multifamily 4-plex apartments, multifamily 8-plex apartments, and manufactured housing units. Building energy models were developed using OpenStudio-HPXML and calibrated to actual utility consumption data and local meteorological data from the Juneau International Airport weather station using an automated calibration tool following the BPI-2400-S-2015 v.2 standard for model calibration. Occupant behaviors present the greatest variability in successful calibrations. Calibrated models were benchmarked against a baseline electric resistance heating condition, with the selected ccASHP modeled as the retrofit condition and typical meteorological year weather data for all results generation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Indices of extremes: geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention

Extreme weather events have been demonstrated to be increasing in frequency and intensity across the globe and are anticipated to increase further with projected changes in climate. Solar climate intervention strategies, specifically stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), have the potential to minimize some of the impacts of a changing climate while more robust reductions in greenhouse gas emissions take effect. However, to date little attention has been paid to the possible responses of extreme weather and climate events under climate intervention scenarios. We present an analysis of 16 extreme surface temperature and precipitation indices, as well as associated vegetation responses, applied to the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS). GLENS is an ensemble of simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) wherein SAI is simulated to offset the warming produced by a high-emission scenario throughout the 21st century, maintaining surface temperatures at 2020 levels. GLENS is generally successful at maintaining global mean temperature near 2020 levels; however, it does not completely offset some of the projected warming in northern latitudes. Some regions are also projected to cool substantially in comparison to the present day, with the greatest decreases in daytime temperatures. The differential warming–cooling also translates to fewer very hot days but more very hot nights during the summer and fewer very cold days or nights compared to the current day. Extreme precipitation patterns, for the most part, are projected to reduce in intensity in areas that are wet in the current climate and increase in intensity in dry areas. We also find that the distribution of daily precipitation becomes more consistent with more days with light rain and fewer very intense events than currently occur. In many regions there is a reduction in the persistence of long dry and wet spells compared to present day. However, asymmetry in the night and day temperatures, together with changes in cloud cover and vegetative responses, could exacerbate drying in regions that are already sensitive to drought. Overall, our results suggest that while SAI may ameliorate some of the extreme weather hazards produced by global warming, it would also present some significant differences in the distribution of climate extremes compared to the present day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observations of Clouds, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Surface Radiation over the Southern Ocean: An Overview of CAPRICORN, MARCUS, MICRE, and SOCRATES

Weather and climate models are challenged by uncertainties and biases in simulating Southern Ocean (SO) radiative fluxes that trace to a poor understanding of cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and radiative processes, and their interactions. Projects between 2016 and 2018 used in situ probes, radar, lidar, and other instruments to make comprehensive measurements of thermodynamics, surface radiation, cloud, precipitation, aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particles over the SO cold waters, and in ubiquitous liquid and mixed-phase clouds common to this pristine environment. Data including soundings were collected from the NSF–NCAR G-V aircraft flying north–south gradients south of Tasmania, at Macquarie Island, and on the R/V Investigator and RSV Aurora Australis. Synergistically these data characterize boundary layer and free troposphere environmental properties, and represent the most comprehensive data of this type available south of the oceanic polar front, in the cold sector of SO cyclones, and across seasons. Results show largely pristine environments with numerous small and few large aerosols above cloud, suggesting new particle formation and limited long-range transport from continents, high variability in CCN and cloud droplet concentrations, and ubiquitous supercooled water in thin, multilayered clouds, often with small-scale generating cells near cloud top. These observations demonstrate how cloud properties depend on aerosols while highlighting the importance of dynamics and turbulence that likely drive heterogeneity of cloud phase. Satellite retrievals confirmed low clouds were responsible for radiation biases. Furthermore, the combination of models and observations is examining how aerosols and meteorology couple to control SO water and energy budgets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

From peak to plummet: impending decline of the warm Arctic-cold continents phenomenon

Abstract This study assesses the projected trajectory of Warm Arctic-Cold Continent (WACC) events in East Asia and North America through large ensemble simulation for the upcoming decades. It analyses the evolution of the geographical boundaries of threshold cold temperatures, revealing a significant northward shift as a sign of global warming’s impact on the southward advancement of Arctic cold air. While validating the intensification of the WACC phenomenon until the 2020 s, echoing earlier studies, the findings indicate a marked decrease beginning in the 2030s. If warming is not curbed, this shift suggests a critical modification in the WACC pattern, prompting a re-evaluation of existing theories and models for extreme winter weather events. The results have major implications, spurring communities impacted by WACC to anticipate future changes and encouraging the climate forecasting community to update conceptual models for improved adaptation and mitigation approaches.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Investigation of the Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclogenesis to Aerosol Intervention

Abstract As risks from tropical cyclones (TCs) are fueled by climate change escalation, there is an urgent need for transformational solutions to complement traditional approaches. Seeding TCs using aerosols can be a promising method to reduce cyclone intensity, supported by theoretical understanding of the microphysical effects of aerosols on TC clouds. The ideal time to intervene effectively in TCs is likely during their initial stage, before TC wind speeds reach their peak. However, studies exploring potential aerosol effects on TC formation remain scarce. This study investigates how a TC embryo responds to the addition of aerosols of varying sizes using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a spectral‐bin microphysics model. We found that aerosols of different sizes and concentrations distinctively affect the pre‐TC vortex's microstructure and dynamics. Fine and ultrafine aerosols enhance the latent heat of condensation, freezing, deposition, and riming, initially intensifying the vortex. However, this results in enhancement of the cold pool, thereby reducing inflow and surface fluxes, subsequently weakening the vortex. Coarse aerosols produce the opposite effect to that of fine and ultrafine aerosols. Coarse aerosols lead to a slower initial acceleration owing to enhanced warm rain. However, the resulting weaker cold pool is insufficient to effectively reduce the strength of the vortex at the later stage. This study provides critical insights into how aerosols of varying sizes and concentrations modulate the energy cascade and impact the evolution of a TC embryo, laying the groundwork for further research on TC risk management through aerosol intervention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast—Part 2: Circulation, Boundary Layer, and Clouds

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) is a complex land-ocean-atmosphere system that experiences a wide range of atmospheric phenomena, which in turn drive unique aerosol transport pathways, cloud morphologies, and boundary layer variability. This work, Part 2 of a 2-part paper series, provides an overview of the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three-dimensional cloud structure, and precipitation over the WNAO; the companion paper (Part 1) focused on chemical characterization of aerosol, gas, and wet deposition. Seasonal changes in the circulation and sea surface temperature explain a clear transition in cloud morphologies from small shallow cumulus clouds, convective clouds, and tropical storms in summer, to stratus/stratocumulus and multi-layer cloud systems associated with winter storms. Synoptic variability in cloud fields is estimated using satellite-based weather states, and the role of postfrontal conditions (cold-air outbreaks) in the development of stratiform clouds is further analyzed. Precipitation is persistent over the ocean, with a regional peak over the Gulf Stream path, where offshore sea surface temperature gradients are large and surface fluxes reach a regional peak. Satellite data show a clear annual cycle in cloud droplet number concentration along the coast in winter, and minima in summer, suggesting a marked annual cycle in aerosol-cloud interactions. The performance of four climate models are assessed against satellite cloud retrievals. The models qualitatively reproduce the annual cycle in cloud cover and liquid water path, but with large discrepancies across models, especially in the extra-tropics. The paper concludes with a summary of outstanding issues and recommendations for future work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Design, Construction, and Field Validation of a Blown-In Fiberglass Wall System in a Cold, Wet, and Windy Climate

In the Native Village of Tununak, located on Nelson Island in Southwest Alaska,buildings are exposed to wind-driven rain and snow throughout the year. The Cold Climate Housing Research Center (CCHRC) and Knauf Insulation partnered with the community in 2018 to design a residence for a public safety officer. Construction began in fall 2021 and is scheduled to conclude in summer 2022. The house will use integrated trusses with floor, attic, and wall cavities filled with blown-in fiberglass insulation. Hygrothermal models of the building envelope system demonstrate that the high ambient moisture load will wet the outer edges of the insulation annually regardless of the extent and integrity of exterior weather sealing measures; blown-in fiberglass is expected to be more resilient to this wetting than blown-in cellulose. To verify this, researchers will embed temperature, relative humidity, and moisture sensors in the two windward walls of the house to monitor the ability of the blown-in fiberglass insulation to dry out after wetting events that may have occurred during the transport of the insulation to the building site, storage of the insulation on site, construction process, or after installation in the wall. Sensors will remain in place for two years,documenting the wall's performance over time and verifying the design's potential for use in buildings located in climates where the chance for moisture damage is high. Here, we describe the wall system , design criteria, and the results from the hygrothermal modeling. We share details on the monitoring system's components and the planned management and analysis of data. Finally, we explain how the experiences and data from this project will inform future builds in similar locations.

building design↗

Warming of the Willamette River, 1850–present: the effects of climate change and river system alterations

Abstract. Using archival research methods, we recovered and combined data from multiple sources to produce a unique, 140-year record of daily water temperature (Tw) in the lower Willamette River, Oregon (1881–1890, 1941–present). Additional daily weather and river flow records from the 1850s onwards are used to develop and validate a statistical regression model of Tw for 1850–2020. The model simulates the time-lagged response of Tw to air temperature and river flow and is calibrated for three distinct time periods: the late 19th, mid-20th, and early 21st centuries. Results show that Tw has trended upwards at 1.1 ∘C per century since the mid-19th century, with the largest shift in January and February (1.3 ∘C per century) and the smallest in May and June (∼ 0.8 ∘C per century). The duration that the river exceeds the ecologically important threshold of 20 ∘C has increased by about 20 d since the 1800s, to about 60 d yr−1. Moreover, cold-water days below 2 ∘C have virtually disappeared, and the river no longer freezes. Since 1900, changes are primarily correlated with increases in air temperature (Tw increase of 0.81 ± 0.25 ∘C) but also occur due to alterations in the river system such as depth increases from reservoirs (0.34 ± 0.12 ∘C). Managed release of water affects Tw seasonally, with an average reduction of up to 0.56 ∘C estimated for September. River system changes have decreased variability (σ) in daily minimum Tw by 0.44 ∘C, increased thermal memory, reduced interannual variability, and reduced the response to short-term meteorological forcing (e.g., heat waves). These changes fundamentally alter the response of Tw to climate change, posing additional stressors on fauna.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Growth modeling to evaluate alternative cultivation strategies to enhance national microalgal biomass production

In this paper, we present a model-based assessment of alternative cultivation strategies on algal biomass production within the conterminous United States. Our assessment focuses on two basic cultivation strategies: 1) seasonal rotation of three representative freshwater algal strains that are well suited for warm weather, cold weather, and all-season diverse weather conditions, respectively; and 2) variation between three open pond water depths (15cm, 20cm, and 25cm). The enhanced Biomass Assessment Tool (BAT) is applied on a site-specific, hourly basis at 5,832 North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 1/8° meteorological model grid cells over a 30-year period (1980-2009) to evaluate the operational strategies. Recognizing that resource management decisions may also consider scales beyond the individual site, we also conduct a regional assessment of focused on 7 representative climate zones in the conterminous United States. Results demonstrate that the spatial variability of algal productivity is largely affected by the strain-specific growth response to light and temperature that vary significantly by climate zone and latitude. Therefore, with a limited set of alternative cultivation strategies, the BAT identified the best performing combination of cultivation strategies on a site-specific basis that considerably enhances national annual biomass productivity. Specifically, the appropriate choice of seasonal strain rotation is able to significantly dampen climate-driven seasonal and spatial variability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Day-ahead photovoltaic power production forecasting methodology based on machine learning and statistical post-processing

A main challenge towards ensuring large-scale and seamless integration of photovoltaic systems is to improve the accuracy of energy yield forecasts, especially in grid areas of high photovoltaic shares. The scope of this paper is to address this issue by presenting a unified methodology for hourly-averaged day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasts with improved accuracy, based on data-driven machine learning techniques and statistical post-processing. More specifically, the proposed forecasting methodology framework comprised of a data quality stage, data-driven power output machine learning model development (artificial neural networks), weather clustering assessment (K-means clustering), post-processing output optimisation (linear regressive correction method) and the final performance accuracy evaluation. The results showed that the application of linear regression coefficients to the forecasted outputs of the developed day-ahead photovoltaic power production neural network improved the performance accuracy by further correcting solar irradiance forecasting biases. The resulting optimised model provided a mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% when applied to historical system datasets. Finally, the model was validated both, at a hot as well as a cold semi-arid climatic location, and the obtained results demonstrated close agreement by yielding forecasting accuracies of mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% and 6.3%, respectively. Finally, the validation analysis provides evidence that the proposed model exhibits high performance in both forecasting accuracy and stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Impact of Shifts in Vegetation Phenology on the Carbon Balance of a Semiarid Sagebrush Ecosystem

Dryland ecosystems are critical in regulating the interannual variability of the global terrestrial carbon cycle. The responses of such ecosystems to weather and environmental conditions remain important factors that limit the accurate projections of carbon balance under future climate change. Here, we investigated how shifts in vegetation phenology resulting from changes in weather and environmental conditions influenced ecosystem carbon cycling in one semiarid ecosystem in the Hanford area of central Washington, United States. We examined two years of measurements of the phenology camera, eddy covariance, and soil chamber from an upland semiarid sagebrush ecosystem. Both years had contrasting diel and seasonal patterns of CO 2 fluxes, primarily driven by differences in vegetation phenology. The net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) and evapotranspiration (ET) in 2019 were enlarged by shifted vegetation phenology, as a cold and snow-covered winter and warm and dry winter in 2020 resulted in constrained magnitudes of NEE and ET during the summer months. The annual gross primary productivity (GPP) was much higher in 2019 than in 2020 (-211 vs. -112 gC m -2 ), whereas ecosystem respiration was comparable in these two years (164 vs. 144 gC m -2 ). Thus, the annual NEE in 2019 was negative (-47 gC m -2 ) with the sagebrush ecosystem functioning as a carbon sink, while the positive annual NEE in 2020 indicated that the sagebrush ecosystem functioned as a carbon source. Our results demonstrate that winter snowpack can be a critical driver of annual carbon uptake in semiarid sagebrush ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Performance Assessment of High Efficiency Variable Speed Air-Source Heat Pump in Cold Climate Applications

This project was part of an effort by ComEd's emerging technology program to evaluate the energy saving potential of new energy efficiency technologies. The focus of this technology assessment was to determine energy and peak demand savings potentials of a high efficiency variable speed, air-source, split system heat pump designed for cold climate applications. The results of this technology assessment will be used by CLEAResult to develop a new energy efficiency measure for Commonwealth Edison Company's incentive programs. The project utilized the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Thermal Test Facility to experimentally characterize cooling and heating performance of a high efficiency heat pump split system under varying outdoor climate conditions. The selected climate conditions represented summer and low temperature winter conditions in ComEd's service territory. The laboratory experimentation results were used to develop equipment performance curves required by EnergyPlus hourly simulation engine. Using typical meteorological year 3 weather data for the Chicago O'Hare airport, hourly building simulations (using the EnergyPlus engine) was utilized to estimate the annual energy savings of the high efficiency heat pump in comparison to a standard efficiency unit in the following U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) building codes program energy prototypes: Single-family residence; Strip mall; and Low-rise office.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Quantifying Moisture Sources of Arctic Atmospheric Rivers During the Recent Historical Period

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), filaments of intense atmospheric moisture transport, play a significant role in delivering moisture poleward into the Arctic and triggering weather extremes. Although previous studies have focused on large‐scale circulations driving these events, this study investigates ARs through attributing their moisture sources using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with moisture‐tagging capability. Examining ARs in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic separately revealed distinct contributions from remote versus local, and ocean versus land, moisture sources. Unlike non‐AR events, Arctic ARs primarily draw moisture from their respective ocean basins in lower‐latitude regions during the cold season, and shift to land sources in the warm season. Cold‐season ARs in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors source 73.2% and 85.3% of their moisture from their respective ocean basins at lower latitudes, however warm‐season contributions decrease to 41.3% and 29.4%. In contrast, mid‐ and high‐latitude continents combined contribute 40.1% and 51.3% in the warm season. Trajectory clustering analysis shows that AR moisture sources depend on both their genesis regions and transport pathways. In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced a moistening trend in both the cold and warm seasons. Our results suggest that local and remote sources equally drive the observed cold‐season moistening, whereas remote sources predominantly drive the warm‐season moistening. A better understanding of Arctic AR moisture sources under current climate conditions provides valuable insights into their potential future changes amid the projected heterogeneous northern hemispheric warming.

Arctic↗

Long-Term Assessment of Commercial Building Energy and Carbon Emissions in the Northwestern Region Under Future Weather Trend

The future climate significantly impacts building performance and increases uncertainties in energy simulations. A rising temperature trend is expected to heighten cooling loads during summer and result in more carbon emissions. Understanding the impact of future climate on building performance is significant for policymakers to make informed decisions. Building retrofit measures can improve building energy efficiency and reduce operational carbon emissions, yet their effects under future climate conditions have not been fully investigated so far. Thus, we proposed an assessment methodology for evaluating long-term energy consumption and operational carbon reduction potential using a building stock dataset. For this study, commercial buildings in the northwestern (NW) region were utilized to assess the impacts of future climate and building retrofit. In addition, we selected Montana with a cold and dry climate as an example to analyze and discuss the carbon emission reduction potential in buildings. The main findings are: (1) Under future climate trends, changes in energy use intensity (EUI) will fluctuate due to variations in heating and cooling degree-days (HDDs and CDDs) and increasing HDDs will lead to increasing EUI. (2) After applying annual building retrofitting, the long-term EUI reduction potential of buildings in the NW region will decrease with the increasing retrofitting degree, and the short-term EUI reduction potential will be impacted by the change of heating and cooling degree days. (3) In Montana, the long-term carbon intensity reduction potential of retrofitted buildings will decrease under future climate trends with the increasing renewable energy penetration.

building energy modeling↗

Ocean fronts and eddies force atmospheric rivers and heavy precipitation in western North America

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for over 90% of poleward water vapor transport in the mid-latitudes and can produce extreme precipitation when making landfall. However, weather and climate models still have difficulty simulating and predicting landfalling ARs and associated extreme precipitation, highlighting the need to better understand AR dynamics. Here, using high-resolution climate models and observations, we demonstrate that mesoscale sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies along the Kuroshio Extension can exert a remote influence on landfalling ARs and related heavy precipitation along the west coast of North America. Inclusion of mesoscale SST forcing in the simulations results in approximately a 40% increase in landfalling ARs and up to a 30% increase in heavy precipitation in mountainous regions and this remote impact occurs on two-week time scales. The asymmetrical response of the atmosphere to warm vs. cold mesoscale SSTs over the eddy-rich Kuroshio Extension region is proposed as a forcing mechanism that results in a net increase of moisture flux above the planetary boundary layer, prompting AR genesis via enhancing moisture transport into extratropical cyclones in the presence of mesoscale SST forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fe-rich X-ray amorphous material records past climate and persistence of water on Mars

X-ray amorphous material comprises 15-73 wt.% of sedimentary rocks and eolian sediments in Gale crater. This material is variably siliceous and iron rich but aluminum poor. The presence of volatiles is consistent with the existence of incipient weathering products. To better understand the implications of this material for past aqueous conditions on Mars, here we investigate X-ray amorphous material formation and longevity within terrestrial iron rich soils with varying ages and environmental conditions using bulk and selective dissolution methods, X-ray diffraction, and transmission electron microscopy. Results indicate that in situ aqueous alteration is required to concentrate iron into clay-size fraction material. Cooler climates promote the formation and persistence of X-ray amorphous material whereas warmer climates promote the formation of crystalline secondary phases. Iron rich X-ray amorphous material formation and persistence on Mars are therefore consistent with past cool and relatively wet environments followed by long-term cold and dry conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗