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Implementation of a Tabulated Failure Model Into a Generalized Composite Material Model Suitable for Use in Impact Problems

The need for accurate material models to simulate the deformation, damage and failure of polymer matrix composites under impact conditions is becoming critical as these materials are gaining increased use in the aerospace and automotive communities. The aerospace community has identified several key capabilities which are currently lacking in the available material models in commercial transient dynamic finite element codes. To attempt to improve the predictive capability of composite impact simulations, a next generation material model is being developed for incorporation within the commercial transient dynamic finite element code LS-DYNA. The material model, which incorporates plasticity, damage and failure, utilizes experimentally based tabulated input to define the evolution of plasticity and damage and the initiation of failure as opposed to specifying discrete input parameters such as modulus and strength. The plasticity portion of the orthotropic, three-dimensional, macroscopic composite constitutive model is based on an extension of the Tsai-Wu composite failure model into a generalized yield function with a non-associative flow rule. For the damage model, a strain equivalent formulation is used to allow for the uncoupling of the deformation and damage analyses. For the failure model, a tabulated approach is utilized in which a stress or strain based invariant is defined as a function of the location of the current stress state in stress space to define the initiation of failure. Failure surfaces can be defined with any arbitrary shape, unlike traditional failure models where the mathematical functions used to define the failure surface impose a specific shape on the failure surface. In the current paper, the complete development of the failure model is described and the generation of a tabulated failure surface for a representative composite material is discussed.

polymer matrix composites↗

Assurance Equations: A Cost and Criticality Model for Optimizing Quality Assurance Surveillance

The cost of quality vs cost of failure correction has been a long-running topic of discussion within the Aerospace community. It leads directly to concepts of “risk tolerance”, and risk-based decision-making. It would be valuable if there was a way to compute the optimal investment in customer-executed quality assurance activities using defect significance with respect to performance objectives, the activities’ defect detection effectiveness, and the cost-penalty for late discovery of impactful defects. This optimization is particularly of interest to projects whose budget constraints significantly limit their risk management options.The cost to fix defects (i.e., failure correction) escalates as the project matures. There have been studies attempting to determine the relative cost of fixing defects discovered during various phases of a project life cycle with important implications, all of which suggest growth factors are large. The commonly referred to 1:10:100 rule represents a cost multiplier for repair/rework across the Design to Fab to Test hardware development phases. Cost premiums for QA activities also accumulate when they are treated as mandatory (due to schedule drag) or are performed later than their assigned phase.This paper describes the modeling of development phase -dependencies in the conduct of typical customer-executed quality assurance activities. Our initial modeling encompasses:• Distinct phases of the production lifecycle• Multiple kinds of Defects, each with some a-priori likelihood of being present• Each defect’s impact on performance Objectives for a type of hardware• The cost and efficacy of assurance techniques at detecting such Defects• The costs of fixing those Defects detected in a given phase of the production lifecycleThe model captures assurance activities’ abilities to Detect defects. Upon detection it is assumed that the Defect is immediately fixed. Defects that “escape” detection by some activity may thereafter be detected by a later activity, but by then the cost of fixing the Defect may have escalated. Defects are related to the performance Objectives they would detract from, were those Defects to remain present in the operating system.We have constructed and are exploring, a model that relates the importance of hardware system elements to mission objectives, the impact of types of Defects on those hardware types, the cost of customer-executed assurance activities (i.e., supplier controls) and their effectiveness towards reducing an impactful quality escape, and the cost of Defect correction across production phase. We describe the approach taken to select the key model aspects, why they are relevant to our NASA mission, and our efforts to populate it with relevant and contemporary data. We use a notional example to illustrate model design and function.

Plante, Jeannette↗

Are the World's Oceans Optically Different?

Regional differences in the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor chlorophyll algorithm uncertainty were observed in a large global data set containing coincident in situ measurements of chlorophyll a concentration (Chla) and spectral radiometry. The uncertainty was found to be systematic when the data were sorted by ocean: Atlantic, Pacific, Southern, and Indian Oceans. Artifacts associated with different instrumentation and analytical methods had been previously ruled out. Given these oceanic biases in the chlorophyll algorithm, we hypothesized that the oceans may be optically different, and their optical differences may be intrinsically related to regional differences in phytoplankton community structure or biogeochemical processes. The oceanic biases, originally observed using radiometric measurements, were independently verified using total absorption measurements in a subset of the data. Moreover, they were explained through oceanic differences in the absorption of colored detrital matter (CDM) and phytoplankton. Both effects were considered together in explaining the ocean biases through a stepwise linear regression analysis. Significant oceanic differences in the amount of CDM and in phytoplankton cell sizes and pigmentation would give rise to optical differences, but we raise a concern for the spatial coverage of the data. We do not suggest the application of ocean-based algorithms but rather emphasize the importance of consolidating regional data sets before reaching this conclusion.

Szeto, M.↗

Incorporation of Damage and Failure into an Orthotropic Elasto-Plastic Three-Dimensional Model with Tabulated Input Suitable for Use in Composite Impact Problems

A material model which incorporates several key capabilities which have been identified by the aerospace community as lacking in the composite impact models currently available in LS-DYNA(Registered Trademark) is under development. In particular, the material model, which is being implemented as MAT 213 into a tailored version of LS-DYNA being jointly developed by the FAA and NASA, incorporates both plasticity and damage within the material model, utilizes experimentally based tabulated input to define the evolution of plasticity and damage as opposed to specifying discrete input parameters (such as modulus and strength), and is able to analyze the response of composites composed with a variety of fiber architectures. The plasticity portion of the orthotropic, three-dimensional, macroscopic composite constitutive model is based on an extension of the Tsai-Wu composite failure model into a generalized yield function with a non-associative flow rule. The capability to account for the rate and temperature dependent deformation response of composites has also been incorporated into the material model. For the damage model, a strain equivalent formulation is utilized to allow for the uncoupling of the deformation and damage analyses. In the damage model, a diagonal damage tensor is defined to account for the directionally dependent variation of damage. However, in composites it has been found that loading in one direction can lead to damage in multiple coordinate directions. To account for this phenomena, the terms in the damage matrix are semi-coupled such that the damage in a particular coordinate direction is a function of the stresses and plastic strains in all of the coordinate directions. The onset of material failure, and thus element deletion, is being developed to be a function of the stresses and plastic strains in the various coordinate directions. Systematic procedures are being developed to generate the required input parameters based on the results of experimental tests.

Finite Element Method↗

EVALUATING NUCLEAR SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF THE SPLINTERNET

The internet, which for years has been viewed as a global online commons with standardized protocols but few regulations is, according to some experts, starting to mirror the contentious political and commercial contours of the physical world. Contributing to this is the rise in data breaches, cyber-enabled attacks on critical infrastructure, government surveillance operations, theft of intellectual property, manipulation of electoral processes, and perceived erosion of privacy, all of which are resulting in a growing skepticism that an open internet will naturally serve the best interests of users, communities, countries, and the global economy. In addition, the rapidly emerging and increasingly lucrative power of data has global superpowers scrambling to protect their informational sovereignty as an urgent matter of national security. Underscoring this urgency is the fact that, despite its global reach and cosmopolitan contributor base, internet infrastructure and governance of the World Wide Web remain largely under U.S. corporate auspices, which reinforces the perception of U.S. control. Whether fragmentation is politically, economically, or socially motivated, there appears to be a growing appetite for an internet that is partitioned and controlled at the national level. From “the Great Firewall of China” to the “Halal” internet of Iran, the trend towards a “Splinternet” has courts and governments embarking on what some call a "legal arms race" to impose a maze of national or regional rules, often conflicting, in the digital realm. The paper explores the emerging Splinternet phenomenon, analyses the implications of this trend on nuclear security, and identifies questions that present opportunities for future research.

Internet, Data Security, Cyber Security, Nuclear S↗

Generating Mixed Patterns of Residential Segregation: An Evolutionary Approach

The Schelling model of residential segregation has demonstrated that even the slightest preference for neighbors of the same race can be amplified into community-wide segregation. However, these models are unable to simulate mixed, coexisting patterns of segregation and integration, which have been seen to exist in cities. Using evolutionary model discovery we demonstrate how including social factors beyond racial bias when modeling relocation behavior enables the emergence of strongly mixed patterns. Our results indicate that the emergence of mixed patterns is better explained by multiple factors influencing the decision to relocate; the most important being the interaction of nonlinear, rapidly diminishing racial bias with a recent, historical tendency to move. Additionally, preference for less isolated neighborhoods or preference for neighborhoods with longer residing neighbors may produce weaker mixed patterns. Finally, this work highlights the importance of exploring the influence of multiple hypothesized factors of decision making, and their interactions, within agent rules, when studying emergent outcomes generated by agent-based models of complex social systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

GeoTGo: AI/ML software for development of community geothermal resources

For effective and equitable outcomes in achieving the national goal of net-zero carbon emissions, communities must be not only included, but even lead the implementation of innovative green-energy technologies. Collaborations with communities should happen through informed decision-making, community-centered research and engagement of stakeholders at the local, state, and regional levels. Community-led research and implementation are fundamental to achieving success. These collaborations include rule makers, environmental regulators, clean energy industries, and technology researchers and developers. Unfortunately, many green infrastructure initiatives still adhere to a top-down and expert-driven process of site selection and design without awareness and acknowledgment of public engagement needs. This can lead to costly delays, including lawsuits, and ultimately less than desired or lacking outcomes as well as missed opportunities1. Geothermal, like many new technologies whose social and economic impacts are not fully understood, often cause disproportionately high adverse effects on disadvantaged communities. These effects can be related to human health, environmental, climate, and other cumulative impacts, as well as the accompanying economic challenges of these impacts. We are focusing our work on the needs of the New Mexico Native American Pueblos and Tribes (NMP&T). To address these needs, we are developing a novel web-based interactive software and user friendly interface called GeoTGO (https://geotgo.com) that provides everything that is needed for communities to better understand and develop their geothermal resources. We will bridge the gap between technology advancements and community needs by facilitating the interactions between the geothermal industry, regulators, stakeholders, and end-users. GeoTGO will merge data, software (including data analysis, text mining, artificial intelligence, and modeling tools), knowledge, expertise, and experience to provide fast processing and dissemination of the latest information about cutting-edge geothermal technologies to users and communities. More information about the project is available at https://envitrace.com/projects/geotgo.html.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Challenges in Obtaining and Visualizing Satellite Level 2 Data in GIS

Satellite data products are important for a wide variety of applications that can bring far-reaching benefits to the science community and the broader society. These benefits can best be achieved if the satellite data are well utilized and interpreted. Unfortunately, this is not always the case, despite the abundance and relative maturity of numerous satellite data products provided by NASA and other organizations. One way to help users better understand the satellite data is to provide data along with Images, including accurate pixel coverage area delineation, and science team recommended quality screening for individual geophysical parameters. However, there are challenges of visualizing remote sensed non-gridded products: (1) different geodetics of space-borne instruments (2) data often arranged in a long-track and a cross-track axes (3) spatially and temporally continuous data chunked into granule files: data for a portion (or all) of a satellite orbit (4) no general rule of resampling or interpolations to a grid (5) geophysical retrieval only based on pixel center location without shape information. In this presentation, we will unravel a new Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) Level 2 (L2) visualization on-demand service. The service's front end provides various visualization and data accessing capabilities, such as overlay and swipe of multiply variables and subset and download of data in different formats. The backend of the service consists of Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standard-compliant Web Mapping Service (WMS) and Web Coverage Service. The infrastructure allows inclusion of outside data sources served in OGC compliant protocols and allows other interoperable clients, such as ArcGIS clients, to connect to our L2 WCS/WMS.

GI↗

Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

It is well documented that government agencies do not have the same incentive as the private sector to focus on process effectiveness and continual improvement of those processes. It is also well documented whenever government agencies fail to deliver efficient, effective, consistent, and fair services to the citizens. In spite of the various "reinventing government" and "effectiveness initiatives" of the past decades, and in spite of the efforts on the part of many agencies to improve, government in general still lags behind industry in creating a culture of effective processes and systems. While the tragic events that unfolded recently in Flint, Michigan, teach us that running government "like a business" does not always take the needs of the citizenry into account, there are many lessons and techniques from the private sector that government agencies can use to improve. The incentive to improve, while mandated by various administrations1, needs to come from within the workforce, in order to effectively take root. The best, most effective incentive is to reduce, control or eliminate risk. Government agencies face some of the same risks as the private sector, while some are unique. While ISO 310002 has been around since 2009, risk has taken on increased visibility within the private sector with the advent of the emphasis on risk-based thinking in ISO 9001:20153. The relationship between risk-based thinking and effective processes is simple and direct. Those processes that are well thought out and standardized (i.e. Plan-Do-Check-Act), will have taken into account the applicable policy, statutory, regulatory, safety, quality and technical parameters, which may not occur to someone performing the process with minimal experience or training; and thus protect the employees, the public and the agency from statutory and regulatory violations; delay in providing services; non-delivery of services; harm to public or employee safety and health; cost overruns; breaches in security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes to work planning to cause harm, it is up to agencies to establish upper level systems, which make establishment and compliance with processes possible. Again, Mallory provides us with a Systems Management Standard6, similar to the Process Management Standard, with a scale of 0-5 for systems effectiveness and maturity. Deming determined that "eighty-five percent of the reasons for failure are deficiencies in the systems and process rather than the employee. The role of management is to change the process rather than badgering individual employees to do better." 7 It is not just the working level employees who need effective processes, but the mid-and upper level managers as well. A disciplined management culture sets the tone for the employees, aids both routine and off-nominal decision-making, and incorporates risk -based thinking into the systems and processes as a matter of normal activity. Figure 1, illustrates the relationship between ineffective and effective processes and risk, through the use of the "stoplight" colors that are commonly used to show serious situations (red), situations which may be improving or deteriorating depending on trends (yellow), and situations that are under control and continuously improved (green).

Shepherd, Christena C.↗

Protecting the Health of Astronauts: Enhancing Occupational Health Monitoring and Surveillance for Former NASA Astronauts to Understand Long-Term Outcomes of Spaceflight-Related Exposures

The astronaut community is unique, and may be disproportionately exposed to occupational hazards not commonly seen in other communities. The extent to which the demands of the astronaut occupation and exposure to spaceflight-related hazards affect the health of the astronaut population over the life course is not completely known. A better understanding of the individual, population, and mission impacts of astronaut occupational exposures is critical to providing clinical care, targeting occupational surveillance efforts, and planning for future space exploration. The ability to characterize the risk of latent health conditions is a significant component of this understanding. Provision of health screening services to active and former astronauts ensures individual, mission, and community health and safety. Currently, the NASA-Johnson Space Center (JSC) Flight Medicine Clinic (FMC) provides extensive medical monitoring to active astronauts throughout their careers. Upon retirement, astronauts may voluntarily return to the JSC FMC for an annual preventive exam. However, current retiree monitoring includes only selected screening tests, representing an opportunity for augmentation. The potential long-term health effects of spaceflight demand an expanded framework of testing for former astronauts. The need is two-fold: screening tests widely recommended for other aging populations are necessary to rule out conditions resulting from the natural aging process (e.g., colonoscopy, mammography); and expanded monitoring will increase NASA's ability to better characterize conditions resulting from astronaut occupational exposures. To meet this need, NASA has begun an extensive exploration of the overall approach, cost, and policy implications of e an Astronaut Occupational Health program to include expanded medical monitoring of former NASA astronauts. Increasing the breadth of monitoring services will ultimately enrich the existing evidence base of occupational health risks to astronauts. Such an expansion would therefore improve the understanding of the health of the astronaut population as a whole, and the ability to identify, mitigate, and manage such risks in preparation for deep space exploration missions.

Rossi, Meredith↗

Assurance of Electronic Parts for Aerospace System Reliability: Past, Present, and Future

Over the last two to three decades, the balance of influence within the electronics industry has shifted decisively towards the consumer electronics and information technology products, away from the defense or aerospace markets. This shift towards the commercial markets has changed certain ground rules in the electronics industry. Reliance of the aerospace industry, in particular, on components from supply chains dedicated to other products, or cross-vertical product integration, creates a supply web and introduces significant risks that are not necessarily present for volume-driven electronic products. Many of the unique risks in the aerospace industry emanate from the key characteristics of this industry. Although selection and usage of commercial electronics in NASA flight hardware is possible at a comparable (and in many cases lower) level of risk to that of employing parts that are screened to military or NASA specifications, for a large majority of flight projects it is difficult to distinguish the difference in on-orbit performance or reliability for parts screened at any level, or commercial parts that have no additional screening performed by the government. This paper identifies several bases for establishing context and developing unique or alternative approaches for successful parts selection and application within NASA and across the commercial space community.

electronic parts↗

Evolving Design Criteria for Very Large Aperture Space-Based Telescopes and Their Influence on the Need for Integrated Tools in the Optimization Process

NASA's Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) program has been developing the means to design and build the future generations of space based telescopes. With the nearing completion of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the astrophysics community is already starting to define the requirements for follow on observatories. The restrictions of available launch vehicles and the possibilities of planned future vehicles have fueled the competition between monolithic primaries (with better optical quality) and segmented primaries (with larger apertures, but with diffraction, costs and figure control issues). Regardless of the current shroud sizes and lift capacities, these competing architectures share the need for rapid design tools. As part of the AMTD program a number of tools have been developed and tested to speed up the design process. Starting with the Arnold Mirror Modeler (which creates Finite Element Models (FEM) for structural analysis) and now also feeds these models into thermal stability analyses. They share common file formats and interchangeable results. During the development of the program, numerous trade studies were created for 4 meter and 8 meter monolithic primaries, complete with support systems. Evaluation of these results has led to a better understanding of how the specification drives the results. This paper will show some of the early trade studies for typical specification requirements such as lowest mirror bending frequency and suspension system lowest frequency. The results use representative allowable stress values for each mirror substrate material and construction method and generic material properties. These studies lead to some interesting relationships between feasible designs and the realities of actually trying to build these mirrors. Much of the traditional specifications were developed for much smaller systems, where the mass and volume of the primary where a small portion of the overall satellite. JWST shows us that as the aperture grows, the primary takes up the majority of the mass and volume and the established rules need to be adjusted. For example, a small change in lowest frequency requirement can change the cost by millions of dollars.

Space-based telescopes↗

For Spacious Skies: Self-Separation with "Autonomous Flight Rules" in US Domestic Airspace

Autonomous Flight Rules (AFR) are proposed as a new set of operating regulations in which aircraft navigate on tracks of their choice while self-separating from traffic and weather. AFR would exist alongside Instrument and Visual Flight Rules (IFR and VFR) as one of three available flight options for any appropriately trained and qualified operator with the necessary certified equipment. Historically, ground-based separation services evolved by necessity as aircraft began operating in the clouds and were unable to see each other. Today, technologies for global precision navigation, emerging airborne surveillance, and onboard computing enable traffic conflict management to be fully integrated with navigation procedures onboard the aircraft. By self-separating, aircraft can operate with more flexibility and fewer flight restrictions than are required when using ground-based separation. The AFR concept proposes a practical means in which self-separating aircraft could share the same airspace as IFR and VFR aircraft without disrupting the ongoing processes of Air Traffic Control. The paper discusses the context and motivation for implementing self-separation in US domestic airspace. It presents a historical perspective on separation, the proposed way forward in AFR, the rationale behind mixed operations, and the expected benefits of AFR for the airspace user community.

Wing, David J.↗

Development and Characterization of a Rate-Dependent Three-Dimensional Macroscopic Plasticity Model Suitable for Use in Composite Impact Problems

Several key capabilities have been identified by the aerospace community as lacking in the material/models for composite materials currently available within commercial transient dynamic finite element codes such as LS-DYNA. Some of the specific desired features that have been identified include the incorporation of both plasticity and damage within the material model, the capability of using the material model to analyze the response of both three-dimensional solid elements and two dimensional shell elements, and the ability to simulate the response of composites composed with a variety of composite architectures, including laminates, weaves and braids. In addition, a need has been expressed to have a material model that utilizes tabulated experimentally based input to define the evolution of plasticity and damage as opposed to utilizing discrete input parameters (such as modulus and strength) and analytical functions based on curve fitting. To begin to address these needs, an orthotropic macroscopic plasticity based model suitable for implementation within LS-DYNA has been developed. Specifically, the Tsai-Wu composite failure model has been generalized and extended to a strain-hardening based orthotropic plasticity model with a non-associative flow rule. The coefficients in the yield function are determined based on tabulated stress-strain curves in the various normal and shear directions, along with selected off-axis curves. Incorporating rate dependence into the yield function is achieved by using a series of tabluated input curves, each at a different constant strain rate. The non-associative flow-rule is used to compute the evolution of the effective plastic strain. Systematic procedures have been developed to determine the values of the various coefficients in the yield function and the flow rule based on the tabulated input data. An algorithm based on the radial return method has been developed to facilitate the numerical implementation of the material model. The presented paper will present in detail the development of the orthotropic plasticity model and the procedures used to obtain the required material parameters. Methods in which a combination of actual testing and selective numerical testing can be combined to yield the appropriate input data for the model will be described. A specific laminated polymer matrix composite will be examined to demonstrate the application of the model.

Impact↗

Ecological Trait-Based Digital Categorization of Microbial Genomes for Denitrification Potential

Microorganisms encode proteins that function in the transformations of useful and harmful nitrogenous compounds in the global nitrogen cycle. The major transformations in the nitrogen cycle are nitrogen fixation, nitrification, denitrification, anaerobic ammonium oxidation, and ammonification. The focus of this report is the complex biogeochemical process of denitrification, which, in the complete form, consists of a series of four enzyme-catalyzed reduction reactions that transforms nitrate to nitrogen gas. Denitrification is a microbial strain-level ecological trait (characteristic), and denitrification potential (functional performance) can be inferred from trait rules that rely on the presence or absence of genes for denitrifying enzymes in microbial genomes. Despite the global significance of denitrification and associated large-scale genomic and scholarly data sources, there is lack of datasets and interactive computational tools for investigating microbial genomes according to denitrification trait rules. Therefore, our goal is to categorize archaeal and bacterial genomes by denitrification potential based on denitrification traits defined by rules of enzyme involvement in the denitrification reduction steps. We report the integration of datasets on genome, taxonomic lineage, ecosystem, and denitrifying enzymes to provide data investigations context for the denitrification potential of microbial strains. We constructed an ecosystem and taxonomic annotated denitrification potential dataset of 62,624 microbial genomes (866 archaea and 61,758 bacteria) that encode at least one of the twelve denitrifying enzymes in the four-step canonical denitrification pathway. Our four-digit binary-coding scheme categorized the microbial genomes to one of sixteen denitrification traits including complete denitrification traits assigned to 3280 genomes from 260 bacteria genera. The bacterial strains with complete denitrification potential pattern included Arcobacteraceae strains isolated or detected in diverse ecosystems including aquatic, human, plant, and Mollusca (shellfish). The dataset on microbial denitrification potential and associated interactive data investigations tools can serve as research resources for understanding the biochemical, molecular, and physiological aspects of microbial denitrification, among others. The microbial denitrification data resources produced in our research can also be useful for identifying microbial strains for synthetic denitrifying communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Evolving Solar Energy Innovation Ecosystem in Puerto Rico

This report presents initial findings from the research project, “Developing socially and economically generative, resilient PV-energy systems for low- and moderate-income communities: Applications for Puerto Rico.” This material is based upon work supported primarily by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy under the Solar Energy Technology Office Fiscal Year 2018 Funding Program award number DE-EE0008570 and in part by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Department of Energy (DOE) under NSF CA No. EEC-1041895. This project is a joint effort of Arizona State University’s Center for Energy and Society; the University of Puerto Rico-Mayaguez’s Center for Hemispheric Cooperation in Research and Education in Engineering and Applied Science, Sustainable Energy Center, and National Institute for Energy and Island Sustainability; and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The project seeks to understand the place of energy in low-income communities in Puerto Rico, the opportunities for solar energy to provide solutions to the energy challenges facing these communities, and the capacity of the solar energy innovation ecosystem in Puerto Rico to deliver relevant solar solutions for these communities. We define the solar energy innovation ecosystem as the diverse actors and stakeholders whose collective networks and actions—and the flows among them of ideas, knowledge, data, influence, money, and equipment, as well as the rules that govern those flows—are essential to the success of renewable energy markets and projects. This report presents results from the first year of the project’s research, which has concentrated on several key goals: (1) characterizing the trajectory of solar energy development in Puerto Rico in the three years since Hurricane María; (2) mapping and characterizing the current solar energy innovation ecosystem in Puerto Rico, including the technical potential for solar energy in Puerto Rico, and the business and policy landscape shaping solar developments; and (3) beginning to characterize the broad landscape of community energy initiatives underway in Puerto Rico. To pursue these goals, we engaged in a systematic review of solar energy developments in Puerto Rico and conducted interviews with over 100 members of the solar energy innovation, including policy, business, finance, research, and civil society leaders, as well as solar users. Solar technical potential data for Puerto Rico was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and is publicly available at: https://data.nrel.gov/submissions/144. The documentation for the NREL dataset is included as Appendix A.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Small Aircraft Transportation System Concept and Technologies

This paper summarizes both the vision and the early public-private collaborative research for the Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS). The paper outlines an operational definition of SATS, describes how SATS conceptually differs from current air transportation capabilities, introduces four SATS operating capabilities, and explains the relation between the SATS operating capabilities and the potential for expanded air mobility. The SATS technology roadmap encompasses on-demand, widely distributed, point-to-point air mobility, through hired-pilot modes in the nearer-term, and through self-operated user modes in the farther-term. The nearer-term concept is based on aircraft and airspace technologies being developed to make the use of smaller, more widely distributed community reliever and general aviation airports and their runways more useful in more weather conditions, in commercial hired-pilot service modes. The farther-term vision is based on technical concepts that could be developed to simplify or automate many of the operational functions in the aircraft and the airspace for meeting future public transportation needs, in personally operated modes. NASA technology strategies form a roadmap between the nearer-term concept and the farther-term vision. This paper outlines a roadmap for scalable, on-demand, distributed air mobility technologies for vehicle and airspace systems. The audiences for the paper include General Aviation manufacturers, small aircraft transportation service providers, the flight training industry, airport and transportation authorities at the Federal, state and local levels, and organizations involved in planning for future National Airspace System advancements.

Small aircraft transportation system↗

Workflow Agents vs. Expert Systems: Problem Solving Methods in Work Systems Design

During the 1980s, a community of artificial intelligence researchers became interested in formalizing problem solving methods as part of an effort called "second generation expert systems" (2nd GES). How do the motivations and results of this research relate to building tools for the workplace today? We provide an historical review of how the theory of expertise has developed, a progress report on a tool for designing and implementing model-based automation (Brahms), and a concrete example how we apply 2nd GES concepts today in an agent-based system for space flight operations (OCAMS). Brahms incorporates an ontology for modeling work practices, what people are doing in the course of a day, characterized as "activities." OCAMS was developed using a simulation-to-implementation methodology, in which a prototype tool was embedded in a simulation of future work practices. OCAMS uses model-based methods to interactively plan its actions and keep track of the work to be done. The problem solving methods of practice are interactive, employing reasoning for and through action in the real world. Analogously, it is as if a medical expert system were charged not just with interpreting culture results, but actually interacting with a patient. Our perspective shifts from building a "problem solving" (expert) system to building an actor in the world. The reusable components in work system designs include entire "problem solvers" (e.g., a planning subsystem), interoperability frameworks, and workflow agents that use and revise models dynamically in a network of people and tools. Consequently, the research focus shifts so "problem solving methods" include ways of knowing that models do not fit the world, and ways of interacting with other agents and people to gain or verify information and (ultimately) adapt rules and procedures to resolve problematic situations.

Clancey, William J.↗