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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

AUTOMATIC GENERATION OF EVENT TREES AND FAULT TREES: A MODEL-BASED APPROACH

In the past few decades, increasing complexity in modern engineering systems has been driven by the integration of a large number of components and by the fact that the system operations involve many disciplines (e.g., thermal-hydraulics, plant operations, cyber-security). Current safety/reliability modeling approaches to such systems are labor intensive, difficult to learn, and rely heavily on simplistic Boolean logic to depict failure propagation and accident progression. While these methods serve well for simple systems (i.e., linear causal systems with limited small inter- and intra-system interactions), their results are difficult to verify when modeling complex systems (typically performed through the extensive use of modeling assumptions). The development of new methods is addressed to meet these challenges through a model-based system engineering (MBSE) lens. Under MBSE philosophy, every aspect of the system (form or function) is represented by a model that completely characterizes its architecture or behavior. MBSE approach greatly improves the management of design, analysis and verification of complex systems. An integration of Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA) methods with MBSE models is proposed to perform safety/reliability analyses of engineering systems. In particular, MBSE representation of the system (performed using Systems Modeling Language [SysML]) is coupled with DPRA methods to automatically generate event trees and fault trees.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrogenolysis of Polypropylene and Mixed Polyolefin Plastic Waste over Ru/C to Produce Liquid Alkanes

Catalytic depolymerization of polyolefins is a promising chemical recycling strategy to create value-added products from waste plastics, which are accumulating in landfills and the natural environment at unsustainable rates. The cleavage of strong C–C bonds in polyolefins can be performed using a noble metal and hydrogen via a hydrogenolysis mechanism. Previously, we identified ruthenium nanoparticles supported on carbon (Ru/C) as a highly active heterogeneous catalyst for the conversion of polyethylene into liquid and gaseous n-alkanes under mild conditions. In the present study, we investigated the catalytic depolymerization of polypropylene (PP) under mild conditions (200–250 °C, 20–50 bar H 2 ). We demonstrate that Ru/C produces C 5 –C 32 iso-alkane yields above 68% in the absence of solvent and identify trade-offs between product yield and temperature, hydrogen pressure, and reaction time. We apply a rigorous analytical method to quantify all liquid and gaseous alkane products. The characterized catalyst was found to be recyclable after the complete depolymerization of high molecular weight PP (M w ~ 340,000 Da) to liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons and after depolymerization of a postconsumer PP centrifuge tube. Finally, the catalyst was shown to be effective in depolymerizing a mixture of high-density polyethylene and PP to produce a mixture of linear and branched liquid alkanes, demonstrating feasibility for the depolymerization of streams of mixed polyolefin waste.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of linear regression, k-nearest neighbour and random forest methods in airborne laser-scanning-based prediction of growing stock

Abstract In this study, for five sites around the world, we look at the effects of different model types and variable selection approaches on forest yield modelling performances in an area-based approach (ABA). We compared ordinary least squares regression (OLS), k-nearest neighbours (kNN) and random forest (RF). Our objective was to test if there are systematic differences in accuracy between OLS, kNN and RF in ABA predictions of growing stock volume. The analyses are based on a 5-fold cross-validation at five study sites: an eucalyptus plantation, a temperate forest and three different boreal forests. Two completely independent validation datasets were also available for two of the boreal sites. For the kNN, we evaluated multiple measures of distance including Euclidean, Mahalanobis, most similar neighbour (MSN) and an RF-based distance metric. The variable selection approaches we examined included a heuristic approach (for OLS, kNN and RF), exhaustive search among all combinations (OLS only) and all variables together (RF only). Performances varied by model type and variable selection approaches among sites. OLS and RF had similar accuracies and were more efficient than any of the kNN variants. Variable selection did not affect RF performance. Heuristic and exhaustive variable selection performed similarly for OLS. kNN fared the poorest amongst model types, and kNN with RF distance was prone to overfitting when compared with a validation dataset. Additional caution is therefore required when building kNN models for volume prediction though ABA, being preferable instead to opt for models based on OLS with some variable selection, or RF with all variables together.

Cosenza, Diogo N.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate effective fluid approximation for ultralight axions

Ultralight axions are theoretically interesting and phenomenologically rich dark sector candidates, but they are difficult to track across cosmological timescales because of their fast oscillations. We resolve this problem by developing a novel method to evolve them efficiently and accurately. We first construct an exact effective fluid which at late times matches the axion but which evolves in a simple way. We then approximate this evolution with a carefully chosen equation of state and sound speed. With our scheme we find that we can obtain subpercent accuracy for the linear theory suppression of axion density fluctuations relative to that of cold dark matter without tracking even a single complete oscillation of the axion field. Furthermore, we use our technique to test other approximation schemes and to provide a fitting formula for the transfer function for the matter power spectrum in linear theory in axion models. Implementing our approach in existing cosmological axion codes is straightforward and will help unleash the potential of high-precision next-generation experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Simplex‐based model for nanoparticle grain identification in four‐dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy data

Grain identification in polycrystalline nanoparticles, for example, determining which crystal phases are present at each spatial location, is fundamental to materials characterisation. This is particularly challenging when grains overlap extensively, as commonly occurs in four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy (4D-STEM) datasets. We propose a simplex-based model (SBM) in which each simplex vertex represents the diffraction pattern (DP) of a pure grain, and the simplex edges and interior represent overlapping grains. Our SBM grain identification algorithm operates on the Bragg disk (BD) data matrix distilled from the 4D-STEM data to identify the grain membership at each scan position, together with a BD feature matrix whose columns represent the DPs for each constituent grain, which is important for identifying the crystal structure of each grain. We solve the model using a two-stage algorithm. In Stage 1, we adapt a linear mixing algorithm to estimate an initial BD feature matrix whose columns represent DPs of potentially overlapping grains. Our Stage 2 algorithm incorporates sparsity considerations to transform the initial BD feature matrix so that its columns represent DPs of pure grains. Using simulated datasets with various grain configurations, we demonstrate that SBM recovers both the BD feature matrix and membership maps more accurately than existing methods, even when a grain lacks any pure region and completely overlaps with other grains.

4D-STEM segmentation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pump with Broadband Probe Experiments for Single-Shot Measurements of Plasma Conditions and Crossed-Beam Energy Transfer

Here, a novel technique for measuring plasma conditions using monochromatic pump-broadband-probe laser interactions has been experimentally demonstrated. Originally proposed in Ludwig et al. [Phys. Plasmas 26, 113108 (2019)], this method utilizes crossed-beam energy transfer between the broadband probe and the pump, mediated by plasma ion acoustic waves. The complete energy transfer spectrum can be captured in a single shot, enabling the inference of plasma parameters such as density, electron and ion temperatures, and flow velocity. Compared to Thomson scattering, this technique offers signal enhancements typically larger than 9 orders of magnitude, significantly reducing the required probe laser intensity and facilitating interactions that are linear and measurements that are nonperturbative of the plasma. Furthermore, it provides a powerful tool for advancing studies of crossed-beam energy transfer under conditions relevant to inertial confinement fusion experiments.

Physics - Plasma physics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of the ghost and mirror fields in the Nernst signal induced by superconducting fluctuations

In this work, we present a complete analysis of the Nernst signal due to superconducting fluctuations in a large variety of superconductors from conventional to unconventional ones. A closed analytical expression of the fluctuation contribution to the Nernst signal is obtained in a large range of temperature and magnetic field. We apply this expression directly to experimental measurements of the Nernst signal in Nb x Si 1-x thin films and URu 2 Si 2 superconductors. Both magnetic field and temperature dependence of the available data are fitted with very good accuracy using only two fitting parameters, the superconducting temperature T c0 and the upper critical field H c2 (0). The obtained values agree very well with experimentally obtained values. We also extract the ghost lines (the maximum of the Nernst signal for constant temperature or magnetic field) from the complete expression and also compare it to several experimentally obtained curves. Our approach predicts a linear temperature dependence for the ghost critical field well above T c0 . Within the errors of the experimental data, this linearity is indeed observed in many superconductors far from T c0 .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Do We Need a New Sustainability Assessment Method for the Circular Economy? A Critical Literature Review

The goal of the circular economy (CE) is to transition from today's take-make-waste linear pattern of production and consumption to a circular system in which the societal value of products, materials, and resources is maximized over time. Yet circularity in and of itself does not ensure social, economic, and environmental performance (i.e., sustainability). Sustainability of CE strategies needs to be measured against their linear counterparts to identify and avoid strategies that increase circularity yet lead to unintended externalities. The state of the practice in quantitatively comparing sustainability impacts of circular to linear systems is one of experimentation with various extant methods developed in other fields and now applied here. While the proliferation of circularity metrics has received considerable attention, to-date, there is no critical review of the methods and combinations of methods that underlie those metrics and that specifically quantify sustainability impacts of circular strategies. Our critical review herein analyzes identified methods according to six criteria: temporal resolution, scope, data requirements, data granularity, capacity for measuring material efficiency potentials, and sustainability completeness. Results suggest that the industrial ecology and complex systems science fields could prove complementary when assessing the sustainability of the transition to a CE. Both fields include quantitative methods differing primarily with regard to their inclusion of temporal aspects and material efficiency potentials. Moreover, operations research methods such as multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) may alleviate the common contradictions which often exist between circularity metrics. This review concludes by suggesting guidelines for selecting quantitative methods most appropriate to a particular research question and making the argument that while there are a variety of existing methods, additional research is needed to combine existing methods and develop a more holistic approach for assessing sustainability impacts of CE strategies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Drell-Yan q T resummation of fiducial power corrections at N 3 LL

We consider Drell-Yan production pp → V*X → LX at small q T << Q, where q T and Q are the total transverse momentum and invariant mass of the leptonic final state L. Experimental measurements require fiducial cuts on L, which in general introduce enhanced, linear power corrections in q T /Q. We show that they can be unambiguously predicted from factorization, and resummed to the same order as the leading-power contribution. For the fiducial q T spectrum, they constitute the complete linear power corrections. We thus obtain predictions for the fiducial q T spectrum to N 3 LL and next-to-leading-power in q T /Q. Matching to full NNLO ($α$$^{2}_{s}$), we find that the linear power corrections are indeed the dominant ones, and once included by factorization, the remaining fixed-order corrections become almost negligible below q T ≲ 40 GeV. We also discuss the implications for more complicated observables, and provide predictions for the fiducial Φ* spectrum at N 3 LL+NNLO. We find excellent agreement with ATLAS and CMS measurements of q T and Φ*. We also consider the $p$$^{ℓ}_{T}$ spectrum. We show that it develops leptonic power corrections in q T /(Q – 2$p$$^{ℓ}_{T}$), which diverge near the Jacobian peak $p$$^{ℓ}_{T}$ ~ Q/2 and must be kept to all powers to obtain a meaningful result there. Doing so, we obtain for the first time an analytically resummed result for the $p$$^{ℓ}_{T}$ spectrum around the Jacobian peak at N 3 LL+NNLO. Our method is based on performing a complete tensor decomposition for hadronic and leptonic tensors. We show that in practice this is equivalent to often-used recoil prescriptions, for which our results now provide rigorous, formal justification. Our tensor decomposition yields nine Lorentz-scalar hadronic structure functions, which for Z/γ* → ℓℓ or W → ℓν directly map onto the commonly used angular coefficients, but also holds for arbitrary leptonic final states. In particular, for suitably defined Born-projected leptons it still yields a LO-like angular decomposition even when including QED final-state radiation. Finally, we also discuss the application to q T subtractions. Including the unambiguously predicted fiducial power corrections significantly improves their performance, and in particular makes them applicable near kinematic edges where they otherwise break down due to large leptonic power corrections.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Time-Series Gap-Filling Methods for Solar Irradiance Applications

A complete solar resource data set is essential for any stage of a solar energy project - from feasibility studies to daily operations. But measured or modeled solar resource data are prone to data gaps and data quality issues. To mitigate these issues, a data imputation process should be implemented to obtain a complete and reliable temporal and spatial data series. This study focused on imputing temporal scales by applying random and artificial data gaps and then implementing eight imputation methods, including the Kalman filtering and smoothing and stine interpolations. These methods were implemented on 1-minute to half hourly irradiance data for 1 year using a few locations from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and ground measurement data set. The results demonstrated that some of the simpler methods, such as the stine and linear interpolation methods, were the relatively best models based on the statistical metrics for imputing NSRDB and ground measurement data, respectively.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of tensor couplings with scalar mixing on covariant energy density functionals

The recent pioneering campaigns conducted by the Lead Radius Experiment (PREX) and the Calcium Radius Experiment (CREX) Collaborations have uncovered major deficiencies in the theoretical description of some fundamental properties of atomic nuclei. Following a recent refinement to the isovector sector of covariant energy density functionals we present here additional improvements to the functional by including both tensor couplings and an isoscalar-isovector mixing term in the scalar sector. Motivated by the distinct surface properties of calcium and lead, we expect that the tensor terms that generate derivative couplings will help break the linear correlation between the neutron skin thickness of these two nuclei. Moreover, the addition of these new terms mitigates most of the problems identified by Reed et al. in describing the properties of both finite nuclei and neutron stars. While significant progress has been made in reconciling the PREX-CREX results without compromising other observables, the final resolution awaits the completion of a proper calibration for this new class of functionals. As a result, we expect that powerful reduced basis methods used recently to create efficient emulators will be essential to accomplish this task.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

How to Host An Effective Data Competition: Statistical Advice for Competition Design and Analysis

Data competitions rely on real-time leaderboards to rank competitor entries and stimulate algorithm improvement. While such competitions have become quite popular and prevalent, particularly in supervised learning formats, their implementations by the host are highly variable. Without careful planning, a supervised learning competition is vulnerable to overfitting, where the winning solutions are so closely tuned to the particular set of provided data that they cannot generalize to the underlying problem of interest to the host. This paper outlines some important considerations for strategically designing relevant and informative data sets to maximize the learning outcome from hosting a competition based on our experience. It also describes a postcompetition analysis that enables robust and efficient assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of solutions from different competitors, as well as greater understanding of the regions of the input space that are well-solved. The postcompetition analysis, which complements the leaderboard, uses exploratory data analysis and generalized linear models (GLMs). The GLMs not only expand the range of results we can explore, they also provide more detailed analysis of individual subquestions including similarities and differences between algorithms across different types of scenarios, universally easy or hard regions of the input space, and different learning objectives. When coupled with a strategically planned data generation approach, the methods provide richer and more informative summaries to enhance the interpretation of results beyond just the rankings on the leaderboard. The methods are illustrated with a recently completed competition to evaluate algorithms capable of detecting, identifying, and locating radioactive materials in an urban environment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Afterpulse correction for micro-pulse lidar to improve middle and upper tropospheric aerosol measurements

Micro-pulse lidar (MPL) measurements have been widely used in atmospheric research over the past few decades. However, the MPL afterpulse noise has a large impact on the MPL aerosol measurement in the middle and upper troposphere, and an effective correction method is still lacking. Here, a new afterpulse correction approach is presented by using measurements with low-level optically thick clouds to act as the lids blocking atmospheric signals beyond the clouds completely. Examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this correction method. Using one-year 2014 MPL measurements at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site, the impact of the correction on the aerosol measurements is quantified. The relative error (RE, %) of attenuated backscattering ratio (ABR) without the afterpulse correction is 30% and 190% at the height of 1.00 km and 9.00 km (AGL), and the RE is larger for weaker aerosol signals (ABR<2). The RE of linear depolarization ratio (LDR), which is significantly higher than that of ABR for a given aerosol layer, is highly non-linear above 3.00 km, with a value of 300%-900% for weak aerosols (ABR<2) above 3.00 km. Therefore, the afterpulse correction is critical for the middle and upper tropospheric aerosol observations. We demonstrated that our afterpulse correction can provide reasonable particle depolarization ratio (PDR) to properly identify dust aerosols. The newly developed method can be applied to long-term MPL measurements to support aerosol and mixed-phase/ice cloud interaction study at the NSA site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reduced scaling formulation of CASPT2 analytical gradients using the supporting subspace method

We present a reduced scaling and exact reformulation of state specific complete active space second-order perturbation (CASPT2) analytical gradients in terms of the MP2 and Fock derivatives using the supporting subspace method. This work follows naturally from the supporting subspace formulation of the CASPT2 energy in terms of the MP2 energy using dressed orbitals and Fock builds. For a given active space configuration, the terms corresponding to the MP2-gradient can be evaluated with O(N5) operations, while the rest of the calculations can be computed with O(N3) operations using Fock builds, Fock gradients, and linear algebra. When tensor-hyper-contraction is applied simultaneously, the computational cost can be further reduced to O(N4) for a fixed active space size. The new formulation enables efficient implementation of CASPT2 analytical gradients by leveraging the existing graphical processing unit (GPU)-based MP2 and Fock routines. We present benchmark results that demonstrate the accuracy and performance of the new method. Example applications of the new method in ab initio molecular dynamics simulation and constrained geometry optimization are given.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Closed bipolar electrode-enabled electrochromic detector for chemical sensing

The described BPE-enabled device includes two separated chambers which perform detection and reporting independently. Analytical reaction of a target molecule in the analytical cell is coupled to and monitored by an electrochromic reaction in the reporting cell. The color change in the reporting cell can be determined spectrophotometrically by RGB analysis of a CCD image acquired via smartphone. This detection method provides a linear response and a low limit of detection due to the redox cycling behavior in both chambers. The BPE based electrochromic detector can be modified for sensing of multiple analytes by integrating three or more sets of detection chemistries into one single device. Multiple analytes with different concentrations can be detected within this device simultaneously. The BPE based electrochromic device can be used for metabolite detection, wherein a redox mediator can be combined with specific oxidases to form an electrochemical mediator-electrocatalyst pair that completes redox cycling reactions.

Bohn, Paul W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Day-to-day reliability of basal heart rate and short-term and ultra short-term heart rate variability assessment by the Equivital eq02+ LifeMonitor in US Army soldiers

Introduction The present study determined the (1) day-to-day reliability of basal heart rate (HR) and HR variability (HRV) measured by the Equivital eq02+ LifeMonitor and (2) agreement of ultra short-term HRV compared with short-term HRV. Methods Twenty-three active-duty US Army Soldiers (5 females, 18 males) completed two experimental visits separated by >48 hours with restrictions consistent with basal monitoring (eg, exercise, dietary), with measurements after supine rest at minutes 20–21 (ultra short-term) and minutes 20–25 (short-term). HRV was assessed as the SD of R–R intervals (SDNN) and the square root of the mean squared differences between consecutive R–R intervals (RMSSD). Results The day-to-day reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC)) using linear-mixed model approach was good for HR (0.849, 95% CI: 0.689 to 0.933) and RMSSD (ICC: 0.823, 95% CI: 0.623 to 0.920). SDNN had moderate day-to-day reliability with greater variation (ICC: 0.689, 95% CI: 0.428 to 0.858). The reliability of RMSSD was slightly improved when considering the effect of respiration (ICC: 0.821, 95% CI: 0.672 to 0.944). There was no bias for HR measured for 1 min versus 5 min (p=0.511). For 1 min measurements versus 5 min, there was a very modest mean bias of −4 ms for SDNN and −1 ms for RMSSD (p≤0.023). Conclusion When preceded by a 20 min stabilisation period using restrictions consistent with basal monitoring and measuring respiration, military personnel can rely on the eq02+ for basal HR and RMSSD monitoring but should be more cautious using SDNN. These data also support using ultra short-term measurements when following these procedures.

General & Internal Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2019

Experimental Evaluation of the Fast-Neutron Passive Collar (FNPC) Performance and Comparison with Scintillation Based Collars

This report describes a new method for the verification of fresh low enrichment uranium (LEU) fuel assemblies that can reduce International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection time in the field and be completely independent of operator declared burnable poison content. The passive measurement makes unattended mode operation practical, and thus provides the potential for reducing inspector time in the field for future applications. The new simplified passive neutron measurement uses the 238 U spontaneous fission in LEU fresh fuel rods to self-interrogate the 235 U mass in the neighboring rods. The measured response increases linearly with the increase in the linear density (LD) of 235 U. The relatively high efficiency of the passive neutron detector (24%) provides good statistical precision (~ 2%) for the singles, doubles, and triples counting rates in the thermal-neutron mode. The three observables makes possible multiplicity analysis so that both the 235 U LD and the effective burnable poison content can be determined independent of the operator declarations. This closes the potential diversion path of miss-declaration the burnable poison content. This report presents the detector design, the as-built system, the detector parameter measurements, the calibration, and the assay uncertainty estimates. The calibration measurements were performed using the Los Alamos Laboratory mockup PWR fuel assembly. The measurements were made in both the fastneutron mode (with Cd/Gd metal liners) and the thermal-neutron mode (no Cd/Gd liners).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk Importance Ranking of Fire Data Parameters to Enhance Fire PRA Model Realism

Fire is historically and analytically a significant contributor to nuclear power plant risk. The level of fire risk and the methods, tools and data for modeling this risk is highly debated by experts. One area of debate is the input data used in fire modeling and how to deal with this data’s high uncertainty. This report outlines initial work performed for determining the key parameters causing this uncertainty and how it propagates into nuclear power plant models. This research paves the way for the development of methods to reduce fire data uncertainty used in modeling. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has mandated that nuclear power plants perform fire risk modeling. However, there are several issues with the current risk modeling implementation that affect the results. Approved modeling methods can be overly conservative and often do not match plant experience. Also, the data used in the modeling can have high uncertainties and is influenced by expert judgement. To evaluate input data uncertainty, researchers performed an initial review of several fire experiments done at Sandia National Laboratories. Uncertainties for fire data can come from many sources, such as experiment design constraints, environmental conditions, or other plant-specific aspects. There are many different significant and insignificant parameters driving the uncertainty. Additionally, the uncertainty of the different input data used in the fire modeling could have a significant or insignificant effect on the entire plant risk. A four-step methodology was developed to perform Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment Importance Ranking. A demonstration case using these steps was set up and three of the four steps were completed in fiscal year (FY) 2019 and the fourth step done FY 2020. These steps are: 1. The qualitative analysis of potential sources was conducted with the following items identified for the demonstration. • Maximum heat release rate • Time to maximum heat release rate • Duration of max heat release rate • Time to decay • Thermal conductivity of concrete • Specific heat of concrete • Density of concrete • Cable jacket thickness 2. A quantitative characterization of dominant sources of uncertainty was performed. A list of distributions and determined values of the dominant sources is shown in Appendix A. 3. A quantitative screening of the potential sources of uncertainty using Morris Elementary Effects Analysis was completed. An experimental model using the physics-based fire modeling tool Fire Dynamics Simulator was developed and coupled with the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment. The Morris analysis identified at least two parameters that can be eliminated as significant contributors (specific heat of concrete and cable jacket thickness). 4. Global importance measure (Global IM) analysis to generate a comprehensive ranking based on their influence on the plant risk. In this research, a moment-independent Global IM is used since it can address (a) uncertainty in the input parameters of the fire model, (b) uncertainty in the risk outputs, and (c) non-linearity and interactions among input parameters in the fire model, more accurately than the correlation-based and variance-based global methods. The observations from the research showed that, depending on the initial and boundary conditions of the fire scenarios, fire-induced damage could have a very small probability and could be dominated by the tail of the uncertainty distribution; hence, the accuracy of the correlation-based and variance-based methods is questionable. The moment-independent Global IM analysis in this research provides a better understanding of how experimental uncertainty data affects industry’s plant models and where improvements in that data will have the largest benefit for improving fire modeling accuracy in causing core damage. Among the five unscreened parameters obtained from the Morris EE analysis, the Global IM analysis results for the case study indicated that max heat release rate and fire location are the most important parameters. The report also outlines benefits of using a unified computational platform that integrates the underlying simulations (e.g., a fire progression model), quantitative screening (using the Morris EE method), and the Global IM analysis. A unified platform can (i) facilitate the ranking of input parameters considering multiple key fire scenarios simultaneously, rather than considering one scenario at a time, (ii) contribute to more explicit and accurate treatment of dependencies at multiple levels of Fire PRA, (iii) facilitate the sampling-based uncertainty quantification for Fire PRA, and (iv) help generating both “industry-wide” and "plant-specific" ranking of uncertainty sources in Fire PRA. Future research should be done to include additional parameters such as detection/suppression or cable fire spread. Adding a PRA software such as SAPHIRE to the RAVEN platform would help with plant model integration and improve treatment of fire-induced dependency. The I-PRA risk importance ranking methodology offered in this report can provide valuable information for efficiently (a) enhancing the realism of Fire PRA for existing plants and (b) supporting the development of Dynamic Fire PRA for advanced reactors and new plants.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗