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MALA-within-Gibbs Samplers for High-Dimensional Distributions with Sparse Conditional Structure
Not provided.
HIERARCHICAL PROBABILISTIC INFERENCE OF COSMIC SHEAR
Point estimators for the shearing of galaxy images induced by gravitational lensing involve a complex inverse problem in the presence of noise, pixelization, and model uncertainties. We present a probabilistic forward modeling approach to gravitational lensing inference that has the potential to mitigate the biased inferences in most common point estimators and is practical for upcoming lensing surveys. The first part of our statistical framework requires specification of a likelihood function for the pixel data in an imaging survey given parameterized models for the galaxies in the images. We derive the lensing shear posterior by marginalizing over all intrinsic galaxy properties that contribute to the pixel data (i.e., not limited to galaxy ellipticities) and learn the distributions for the intrinsic galaxy properties via hierarchical inference with a suitably flexible conditional probabilitiy distribution specification. We use importance sampling to separate the modeling of small imaging areas from the global shear inference, thereby rendering our algorithm computationally tractable for large surveys. With simple numerical examples we demonstrate the improvements in accuracy from our importance sampling approach, as well as the significance of the conditional distribution specification for the intrinsic galaxy properties when the data are generated from an unknown number of distinct galaxy populations with different morphological characteristics.
Optimal Operation of Soft Open Points in Active Distribution Networks Under Three-Phase Unbalanced Conditions
The asymmetric integration of distributed generators (DGs) exacerbates the three-phase unbalanced condition in distribution systems. The serious unbalanced operation causes inefficient utilization of network assets and security risks in the system. Soft open point (SOP) is a flexible power electronic device which can achieve accurate active and reactive power flow control to balance the power flow among phases. This paper proposes an SOPs-based operation strategy for unbalanced active distribution networks (ADNs). By regulating the operation of SOPs, the strategy can reduce power losses and simultaneously mitigate the three-phase unbalance of the upper-level grid. Semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxation is advocated to convert the original non-convex, nonlinear optimization model into an SDP formulation, which can be efficiently solved to meet the requirement of rapid adjustment. Case studies are conducted on the modified IEEE 33-node and IEEE 123-node distribution system to verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed strategy.
Stochastic Simulation of Daily Suspended Sediment Concentration Using Multivariate Copulas
Estimation of daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is required for water resources and environment management. In this paper, a copula-based stochastic method was proposed for daily SSC simulation. Here, the multivariate copula function, constructed based on a bivariate copula and two bivariate conditional probability distributions, was used to model the temporal and cross dependence structures in daily SSCs. Then, the daily SSCs were generated by sampling from the multivariate conditional distribution. As a result, synthetic long-term SSCs data beyond the limited observation period can be provided for water resources managers, which plays a critical role in accurately estimating frequency and magnitude of extreme SSCs events. The proposed method was under rigorous examination by applying to a case study at Pingshan station in the Jinsha River Basin, China. Results showed that the generated daily SSC sequences not only had a high degree of accuracy in preserving the statistical characteristics of the daily SSC observations, but also captured both the temporal correlation and the cross-correlation between the daily streamflow and daily SSC. Specifically, the average daily relative error values corresponding to mean, standard deviation, skewness, lag-1 temporal correlation, and cross correlation were 0.87%, 4.24%, 7.52%, 0.51% and 2.02%, respectively. The multivariate copula framework proposed here can accurately and efficiently generate long-term daily SSC data for water resources management such as frequency analysis and risk assessment of extreme SSC events.
Ventenata dubia projected to expand in the western United States despite future novel conditions
Abstract Distributions of both native and invasive species are expected to shift under future climate. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to explore future habitats, but sources of uncertainty including novel climate conditions may reduce the reliability of future projections. We explore the potential spread of the invasive annual grass ventenata ( Ventenata dubia ) in the western United States under both current and future climate scenarios using boosted regression tree models and 30 global climate models (GCMs). We quantify novel climate conditions, prediction variability arising from both the SDMs and GCMs, and the agreement among GCMs. Results demonstrate that currently suitable habitat is concentrated inside the invaded range of the northwest, but substantial habitat exists outside the invaded range in the Southern Rockies and southwestern US mountains. Future suitability projections vary greatly among GCMs, but GCMs commonly projected decreased suitability in the invaded range and increased suitability along higher elevations of interior mountainous areas. Climate novelty did not appear to undermine the prediction reliability in many cases where the climate–species relationship was fully represented by the occurrence data. GCM‐derived variability resulting from variation in future cool season precipitation and temperature seasonality was greatest in the Rocky Mountains. SDM‐derived variability was higher in currently suitable habitat, and few GCMs projections agreed that these areas would contain future suitable habitat. However, while prediction variability was high, many GCM projections agreed that parts of the Rocky, Wasatch, and Uinta Mountains would contain highly suitable habitat in the future. As disturbances in the interior mountains occur in coming decades, reducing some natural barriers to invasion, land managers, and conservationists will need to monitor for ventenata in post‐disturbance environments. Changes to invasion potential may not play out for several decades, but results related to current potential may have applications for early detection and rapid response planning.
Reconfiguration of power grids during abnormal conditions using reclosers and distributed energy resources
Apparatus and methods are disclosed for restoring operation of a power grid comprising a plurality of reclosers and distributed energy resources (DERs) responsive to abnormal conditions by determining and implementing a reconfiguration for the power grid. The reconfiguration can specify respective new statuses for one or more of the reclosers and/or respective quantities of reactive power to be supplied by one or more of the DERs. The reconfiguration can be determined based on a plurality of constraints using an objective function, the constraints being determined based at least in part on recloser status data and/or DER power generation capability data. Respective cleared quantities of reactive power for the DERs to supply to the reconfigured power grid can be determined via a transactive control scheme, and the reconfiguration can be updated prior to implementation based on the results of the transactive control scheme.
Building America Case Study: Evaluating Through-Wall Air Transfer Fans, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (Fact Sheet)
In this project, Building America team IBACOS performed field testing in a new construction unoccupied test house in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to evaluate heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) distribution systems during heating, cooling, and midseason conditions. Four air-based HVAC distribution systems were assessed:-a typical airflow ducted system to the bedrooms, a low airflow ducted system to the bedrooms, a system with transfer fans to the bedrooms, and a system with no ductwork to the bedrooms. The relative ability of each system was considered with respect to relevant Air Conditioning Contractors of America and ASHRAE standards for house temperature uniformity and stability, respectively.
SU-G-BRA-09: Estimation of Motion Tracking Uncertainty for Real-Time Adaptive Imaging
Purpose: kV fluoroscopic imaging combined with MV treatment beam imaging has been investigated for intrafractional motion monitoring and correction. It is, however, subject to additional kV imaging dose to normal tissue. To balance tracking accuracy and imaging dose, we previously proposed an adaptive imaging strategy to dynamically decide future imaging type and moments based on motion tracking uncertainty. kV imaging may be used continuously for maximal accuracy or only when the position uncertainty (probability of out of threshold) is high if a preset imaging dose limit is considered. In this work, we propose more accurate methods to estimate tracking uncertainty through analyzing acquired data in real-time. Methods: We simulated motion tracking process based on a previously developed imaging framework (MV + initial seconds of kV imaging) using real-time breathing data from 42 patients. Motion tracking errors for each time point were collected together with the time point’s corresponding features, such as tumor motion speed and 2D tracking error of previous time points, etc. We tested three methods for error uncertainty estimation based on the features: conditional probability distribution, logistic regression modeling, and support vector machine (SVM) classification to detect errors exceeding a threshold. Results: For conditional probability distribution, polynomial regressions on three features (previous tracking error, prediction quality, and cosine of the angle between the trajectory and the treatment beam) showed strong correlation with the variation (uncertainty) of the mean 3D tracking error and its standard deviation: R-square = 0.94 and 0.90, respectively. The logistic regression and SVM classification successfully identified about 95% of tracking errors exceeding 2.5mm threshold. Conclusion: The proposed methods can reliably estimate the motion tracking uncertainty in real-time, which can be used to guide adaptive additional imaging to confirm the tumor is within the margin or initialize motion compensation if it is out of the margin.
A New Framework for Interstellar Medium Emission Line Models: Connecting Multiscale Simulations across Cosmological Volumes
The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array have detected emission lines from the ionized interstellar medium (ISM) in some of the first galaxies at z ≳ 6. These measurements present an opportunity to better understand galaxy assembly histories and may allow important tests of state-of-the-art galaxy formation simulations. It is challenging, however, to model these lines in their proper cosmological context. In order to meet this challenge, we introduce a novel subgrid line emission modeling framework. The framework uses the high-z zoom-in simulation suite from the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) collaboration. The line emission signals from H II regions within each simulated FIRE galaxy are modeled using the semianalytic HIIL INES code. A machine learning approach is then used to determine the conditional probability distribution for the line luminosity to stellar-mass ratio from the H II regions around each simulated stellar particle. This conditional probability distribution can then be applied to predict the line luminosities around stellar particles in lower-resolution, yet larger volume cosmological simulations. As an example, we apply this approach to the IllustrisTNG simulations at z = 6. The resulting predictions for the [O II ], [O III ], and Balmer line luminosities as a function of star formation rate agree well with current observations. Our predictions differ, however, from related works in the literature, which lack detailed subgrid ISM models. This highlights the importance of our multiscale simulation modeling framework. Finally, we provide forecasts for future line luminosity function measurements from the JWST and quantify the cosmic variance in such surveys.
LyMAS: Predicting large-scale Lyα forest statistics from the dark matter density field
We describe Lyα Mass Association Scheme (LyMAS), a method of predicting clustering statistics in the Lyα forest on large scales from moderate-resolution simulations of the dark matter (DM) distribution, with calibration from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations of smaller volumes. We use the 'Horizon-MareNostrum' simulation, a 50 h {sup –1} Mpc comoving volume evolved with the adaptive mesh hydrodynamic code RAMSES, to compute the conditional probability distribution P(F{sub s} |δ {sub s}) of the transmitted flux F{sub s} , smoothed (one-dimensionally, 1D) over the spectral resolution scale, on the DM density contrast δ {sub s}, smoothed (three-dimensionally, 3D) over a similar scale. In this study we adopt the spectral resolution of the SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) at z = 2.5, and we find optimal results for a DM smoothing length σ = 0.3 h {sup –1} Mpc (comoving). In its simplest form, LyMAS draws randomly from the hydro-calibrated P(F{sub s} |δ {sub s}) to convert DM skewers into Lyα forest pseudo-spectra, which are then used to compute cross-sightline flux statistics. In extended form, LyMAS exactly reproduces both the 1D power spectrum and one-point flux distribution of the hydro simulation spectra. Applied to the MareNostrum DM field, LyMAS accurately predicts the two-point conditional flux distribution and flux correlation function of the full hydro simulation for transverse sightline separations as small as 1 h {sup –1} Mpc, including redshift-space distortion effects. It is substantially more accurate than a deterministic density-flux mapping ({sup F}luctuating Gunn-Peterson Approximation{sup )}, often used for large-volume simulations of the forest. With the MareNostrum calibration, we apply LyMAS to 1024{sup 3} N-body simulations of a 300 h {sup –1} Mpc and 1.0 h {sup –1} Gpc cube to produce large, publicly available catalogs of mock BOSS spectra that probe a large comoving volume. LyMAS will be a powerful tool for interpreting 3D Lyα forest data, thereby transforming measurements from BOSS and other massive quasar absorption surveys into constraints on dark energy, DM, space geometry, and intergalactic medium physics.
Pore size distribution and methane equilibrium conditions at Walker Ridge Block 313, northern Gulf of Mexico
Coexistence of three methane phases (liquid (L), gas (G), hydrate (H)) in marine gas hydrate systems may occur according to in-situ pressure, temperature, salinity and pore size. In sediments with salinity close to seawater, a discrete zone of three-phase (3P) equilibrium may occur near the base of the regional hydrate stability zone (RHSZ) due to capillary effects. The existence of a 3P zone influences the location of the bottom-simulating reflection (BSR) and has implications for methane fluxes at the base of the RHSZ. We studied hydrate stability conditions in two wells, WR313-G and WR313-H, at Walker Ridge Block 313 in the northern Gulf of Mexico. We determined pore size distributions (PSD) by constructing a synthetic nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) relaxation time distribution. Correlations were obtained by non-linear regression on NMR, gamma ray, and bulk density logs from well KC-151 at Keathley Canyon. The correlations enabled construction of relaxation time distributions for WR313-G and WR313-H, which were used to predict PSD through comparison with mercury injection capillary pressure measurements. With the computed PSD, L+H and L+G methane solubility was determined from in-situ pressure and temperature. The intersection of the L+G and L+H curves for various pore sizes allowed calculation of the depth range of the 3P equilibrium zone. As in previous studies at Blake Ridge and Hydrate Ridge, the top of the 3P zone moves upwards with increasing water depth and overlies the bulk 3P equilibrium depth. In clays at Walker Ridge, the predicted thickness of the 3P zone is approximately 35 m, but in coarse sands it is only a few meters due to the difference in absolute pore sizes and the width of the PSD. The thick 3P zone in the clays may explain in part why the BSR is only observed in the sand layers at Walker Ridge, although other factors may influence the presence or absence of a BSR.
The Evolving Distribution of Relative Humidity Conditional Upon Daily Maximum Temperature in a Warming Climate
Abstract The impacts of heat waves in a warming climate depend not only on changing temperatures but also on changing humidity. Using 35 simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM LENS), we investigate the long‐term evolution of the joint distribution of summer relative humidity (RH) and daily maximum temperature ( Tmax ) near four U.S. cities (New York City, Chicago, Phoenix, and New Orleans) under the high‐emissions Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We estimate the conditional quantiles of RH given Tmax with quantile regression models, using functions of temperature for each city in July for three time periods (1990–2005, 2026–2035, and 2071–2080). Quality‐of‐fit diagnostics indicate that these models accurately estimate conditional quantiles for each city. As expected, each quantile of Tmax increases from 1990–2005 to 2071–2080, while mean RH decreases modestly. Conditional upon a fixed quantile of Tmax , the median and high quantiles of RH decrease, while those of the Heat Index (HI) and dew point both increase. This result suggests that, despite a modest decrease in median relative humidity, heat stress measured by metrics considering both humidity and temperature in a warming climate will increase faster than that measured by temperatures alone would indicate. For a fixed Tmax , the high quantiles of RH (and thus of HI and dew point) increase from 1990–2005 to 2071–2080 in all four cities. This result suggests that the heat stress of a day at a given Tmax will increase in a warming climate due to the increase of RH.
Distribution of solutions of the fastest apparent convergence condition in optimized perturbation theory and its relation to anti-Stokes lines
We discuss fundamental properties of the fastest apparent convergence (FAC) condition which is used as a variational criterion in optimized perturbation theory (OPT). We examine an integral representation of the FAC condition and a distribution of the zeros of the integral in a complex artificial parameter space on the basis of theory of Lefschetz thimbles. We find that the zeros accumulate on a certain line segment known as an anti-Stokes line in the limit K→∞, where K is a truncation order of a perturbation series. This phenomenon gives an underlying mechanism that physical quantities calculated by OPT can be insensitive to the choice of the artificial parameter.
Simplified Space Conditioning in Low-Load Homes: Results from the Fresno, California, Retrofit Unoccupied Test House
In this study, the Building America team, IBACOS, sought to determine cost-effective, energy-efficient solutions for heating and cooling houses. To this end, the team performed field testing in a retrofit unoccupied test house in Fresno, California, to evaluate three air-based heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) distribution systems during heating, cooling, and midseason conditions. These included a typical airflow ducted system to the bedrooms, a low airflow ducted system to the bedrooms, and a system with no ductwork to the bedrooms. The relative ability of each of the three systems was assessed with respect to relevant Air Conditioning Contractors of America (ACCA) and ASHRAE standards for house temperature uniformity and stability, respectively. Computational fluid dynamics modeling also was performed and refined based on comparison to field test results to determine the air flow rate into the bedrooms of over-door and bottom-of-door air transfer grilles.
New Whole-House Solutions Case Study: Evaluating Through-Wall Air Transfer Fans, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
In this project, Building America team IBACOS performed field testing in a new construction unoccupied test house in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, to evaluate heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) distribution systems during heating, cooling, and midseason conditions. The team evaluated a market-available through-wall air transfer fan system that provides air to the bedrooms.The relative ability of this system was considered with respect to relevant Air Conditioning Contractors of America and ASHRAE standards for house temperature uniformity and stability.
A Bayesian interpretation of inconsistency measures in cosmology
Abstract Measures of inconsistency and tension between datasets have become an essential part of cosmological analyses. It is important to accurately evaluate the significance of such tensions when present. We propose here a Bayesian interpretation of inconsistency measures that can extract information about physical inconsistencies in the presence of data scatter. This new framework is based on the conditional probability distribution of the level of physical inconsistency given the obtained value of the measure. We use the index of inconsistency as a case study to illustrate the new interpretation framework, but this can be generalized to other metrics. Importantly, there are two aspects in the quantification of inconsistency that behave differently as the number of model parameters increases. The first is the probability for the level of physical inconsistency to reach a threshold which drops with the increase of the number of parameters under consideration. The second is the actual level of physical inconsistency which remains rather insensitive to such an increase in parameters. The difference between these two aspects is often overlooked, which leads to a long-standing ambiguity: when a given inconsistency is found between two constraints, its “significance” seems to be lower when considered in a higher-dimensional parameter space. This ambiguity is resolved by the Bayesian interpretation we introduce in this work because the conditional probability distribution includes all the statistical information of the level of physical inconsistency. Finally, we apply the Bayesian interpretation to examine the (in)consistency between Planck versus the Cepheid-based local measurement, the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and WMAP. We confirm and revisit the degrees of previous physical inconsistencies and show the stability of the new interpretation with respect to the number of cosmological parameters compared to the commonly used n-σ interpretation when applied to cosmological tensions in multi-parameter spaces.
Distributional analysis of radiation conditions for the $3+1$ wave equation
Not provided.