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At least 73 records · Page 4

Topological Machine Learning Methods for Power System Responses to Contingencies: Preprint

While deep learning tools, coupled with the emerging machinery of topological data analysis, are proven to deliver various performance gains in a broad range of applications, from image classification to biosurveillance to blockchain fraud detection, their utility in areas of high societal importance such as power system modeling and, particularly, resilience quantification in the energy sector yet remain untapped. To provide fast acting synthetic regulation and contingency reserve services to the grid while having minimal disruptions on customer quality of service, we propose a new topologybased system that depends on neural network architecture for impact metrics classification and prediction in power systems. This novel topology-based system allows one to evaluate the impact of three power system contingency types, namely, in conjunction with transmission lines, transformers, and transmission lines combined with transformers. We show that the proposed new neural network architecture equipped with local topological measures facilitates both more accurate classification of unserved load as well as the amount of unserved load. In addition, we are able to learn complex relationships between electrical properties and local topological measurements on the simulated response to contingencies for NREL-SIIP power system.

graph theory↗

Grid Strength Analysis for Integrating 30 GW of Offshore Wind Generation by 2030 in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection: Preprint

Offshore wind is a key player in the transition to a decarbonized electric gird, and the United States has set ambitious goals of integrating 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050. To facilitate this integration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory are conducting the Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study to assess transmission solutions. To achieve the 110-GW target by 2050, meticulous planning for network expansion and resource allocation is essential; however, meeting the 2030 goals requires integrating offshore wind power with minimal system upgrades, thus necessitating a careful study of grid strength and stability. The study team developed the Grid Strength Analysis Tool (GSAT) to assess system strength under various operating conditions and contingencies, focusing on the proposed integration of 30 GW of offshore wind power by 2030. In this paper, we provide a summary of key features of the GSAT software and results of the grid strength analysis for integrating 30 GW of offshore wind generation by 2030 in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection.

Automated System-wide Strength Evaluation Tool (AS↗

Formality of Operations and Nuclear Criticality Safety Standards [Slides]

This presentation is on the formality of operations and nuclear criticality safety standards. This lecture starts with an Introduction then leads into a conversation on the dependencies of formality of operations. Secondly the presentation includes a review of past issues. Included is a Discussion about “credible” and “unlikely” – variables for process analysis in ANS-8.1, Section 4.1.2, and the double contingency principle, Section 4.2.2, respectively. The presentation finishes with some conclusions.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Structure-Informed Graph Learning of Networked Dependencies for Online Prediction of Power System Transient Dynamics

Online transient analysis plays an increasingly important role in dynamic power grids as the renewable generation continues growing. Traditional numerical methods for transient analysis not only are computationally intensive but also require precise contingency information as input, and therefore, are not suitable for online applications. Existing online transient assessment studies focus on the determination of post-contingency system stability or stability margin. Here, this paper develops a novel graph-learning framework, Deep-learning Neural Representation or DNR, for online prediction, of the time-series trajectories of the system states using initial system responses that can be measured by phasor measurement units (PMUs). The proposed DNR framework consists of two sequential modules: a Network Constructor that captures network dependencies among generators, and a Dynamics Predictor that predicts the system trajectories. The key to improved prediction performance is the introduction of the spatio-temporal message-passing operations into graph neural networks with structural knowledge. Its effectiveness and scalability are validated through comparative studies, demonstrating the prediction performance under different contingency scenarios for systems of different sizes. This framework provides a solution to online predicting post-fault system dynamics based on real-time PMU measurements. Additionally, it can also be applied to facilitate the offline transient simulation without simulating the entire trajectories.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Dynamic modeling studies of basin-scale pressure interference and CO 2 plume evolution in multi-well geologic CO 2 storage

This research employs numerical modeling to analyze how CO 2 plumes and pressure fronts evolve when CO 2 is injected into a single storage formation from multiple projects located in proximity. Here, this analysis also evaluates the extent to which injection well spacing alleviates pressure buildup in the absence of active pressure management tactics. The simulation approach was based on a single, homogenous saline aquifer in which CO 2 injection occurs under a one-injector baseline case and several multi-well cases where well spacing varies. Analysis results show that the extent of pressure buildup is in the range of tens or a few hundreds of kilometers and contingent upon the defining pressure buildup demarcating the front edge. For the geological setting evaluated in this paper, our analysis suggests that without active basin pressure management strategies, commercial-scale projects would likely need to be sited far apart to avoid pressure interference from one another. Analysis results show the radius of CO 2 plume varies approximately from 2 to 3 km from injection wells (each injecting 1 Mt/year for 30 years) depending on cases and modeling parameters assumed. Given the pressure interference, this paper thus draws attention to the importance of greater coordination among storage operators and regulatory stakeholders. Because this analysis assumes a very specific geologic setting, this exploratory analysis bears further investigations across other geologic scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Review and Analysis of Heat Transfer Correlations For Horizontal Pseudocritical CO 2 Heat Exchanger Applications

There is significant interest in the development of supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) power cycles because of the potential for smaller and more energy efficient systems than a steam Rankine cycle. Heat exchanger designs typically use empirical correlations, but the applicability of these correlations near the CO 2 critical point is a potential issue. Though numerous correlations have been proposed in the literature, there are some disagreements when it comes to the accuracy. The current work recognizes the role of thermophysical properties, and its impacts on the heat transfer correlations and cycle efficiency. Heat transfer correlations proposed for horizontal flow inside circular pipes were analyzed with the help of numerical simulations. Steady state RANS simulations were performed using SST k-w turbulence model to evaluate the Nusselt number empirical correlations. It was found that the most of correlations (except Yoon) produced a Nusselt number that differed significantly with the one predicted numerically. Some of the correlations were developed for pure forced convection regime and as mentioned in Lin et al. do not account for mixed convection or free convection effects. Based on the limited observation, it appears that Yoon et al. predictions match well with the numerically predicted Nusselt Numbers. However, further analysis is required understand the applicability of various correlations and is contingent on accurate measurements or predictions of wall temperature profiles in the axial and the circumferential directions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Novel AC Distribution Factor for Efficient Outage Analysis

We propose novel line outage distribution factors under AC power flow (AC-LODF) for providing very efficient approximate post-outage power flow solution. The AC-LODF is derived by using holomorphic embedding (HE) approach, and the approximate post-outage power flow solution is obtained with Pad approximation (PA). In this work, tests on IEEE 14-bus system, and Polish 2383-bus system verify that the proposed AC-LODF is effective on most outages, and can significantly speed up outage analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Pantex Plant Ogallala Aquifer and Perched Groundwater Contingency Plan

The Pantex Plant Ogallala Aquifer and Perched Groundwater Contingency Plan has been developed in accordance with the requirements identified in the: • Interagency Agreement for the Pantex Superfund Site, Article 8.5 Work to be Performed, • Compliance Plan Provision of Hazardous Waste Permit No. 50284, and • Record of Decision for Groundwater, Soil, and Associated Media, Pantex Plant. A Long‐Term Monitoring System Design has been designed to monitor conditions in the perched groundwater including changes in the perched aquifer as a result of implementing the response actions. Monitoring is required for verifying the effectiveness of perched groundwater response actions (i.e., conditions in the perched aquifer are being affected as intended) and for confirming that the perched aquifer and Ogallala Aquifer characterization as defined in the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Facility Investigation Report and the Corrective Measure Studies/Feasibility Study remains accurate. If monitoring results obtained through the monitoring network identify an unexpected condition or deviation, contingent actions will be considered and implemented as necessary to ensure continued protection of the Ogallala Aquifer and human health and the environment. Potential deviations to expected technology performance may be encountered for each of the four primary response actions that compose the selected remedy for perched groundwater; Playa 1 Pump and Treat System, Southeast Area Pump and Treat System, Southeast Area In‐Situ Bioremediation System (comprised of the Southeast In‐Situ Bioremediation System Original System, Southeast Area In‐Situ Bioremediation System Extension System, Offsite In‐Situ Bioremediation System, Perchlorate/Chromium ISB, Northeast ISB and County Road 8 ISB), and Zone 11 In‐Situ Bioremediation System. Monitoring will also be conducted to determine if there are deviations to the expected characterization, e.g., contaminants not expected as a result of the RCRA Facility Investigation characterization. Deviations to expected conditions in the Ogallala Aquifer could also be encountered if the response actions in the perched groundwater are not performing as expected, i.e., preventing contaminants from migrating to the Ogallala Aquifer. Currently, Pantex has begun investigation of detections of high explosives above groundwater protection standards in wells on the Texas Tech University property and a plume that is moving to the northeast from that area. Due to those detections, this Plan recognizes the fact that future detections in the Ogallala will be focused on first‐ time detections of analytes. After a remedy is determined, this Plan will require modification to address-deviations and contingent actions. This Plan was developed to identify the contingent actions necessary to mitigate impacts resulting from deviations to site conditions or response action performance. The Plan defines the environmental problem being addressed by the response actions, clarifies the expected conditions and objectives of the response actions, and identifies the potential deviations to the response actions (due to site conditions or technology performance) that could be encountered. The deviations were evaluated to determine the likelihood of occurrence, potential impact, and time to respond to avoid impact. The Plan also identifies the monitoring outlined in the Long‐Term Monitoring System Design Report (Consolidated Nuclear Security, 2024) and Sampling Analysis Plan (PanTeXas Deterrence, 2024) that will be used to detect the deviations. Lastly, the Plan specifies the contingent actions that could be implemented in response to the deviations. Because each response focuses on a discrete portion of the perched aquifer and contaminant plume, each response action has a different set of expected conditions, and therefore differing impacts from deviations to the site and technology expectations. As a result, the contingent actions are identified for each response action and potential deviation including specific constituents, location, and conditions. If deviations are encountered that impact the ability of the response action to meet performance objectives, the contingent actions will be focused on ensuring the response action can meet the performance objective. Contingent actions may be implemented as interim actions (ISMs/removal actions) in accordance with the Record of Decision, Interagency Agreement, and Hazardous Waste Permit‐50284, if warranted by the specific circumstances. For deviations to site characterization expected conditions, the contingent action will focus on determination of the source of the deviation, determination of the appropriate response, and evaluation of additional work to be completed. However, if the deviation to characterization impacts the performance of the response action, the contingent action will again focus on ensuring performance objectives can be met. Early source term removals and cleanup actions have been implemented to protect the Ogallala Aquifer. Because of these actions and based on modeling results, the expected conditions in the Ogallala Aquifer are that constituents of concern will not be detected above the Groundwater Protection Standards (GWPSs) nor will they reach potential points of exposure above the GWPS. The primary deviation of concern for the Ogallala is if constituents are detected in the Ogallala Aquifer near or above GWPSs. If it occurs, this change in expected conditions would require further evaluation of site and contaminant characteristics to determine an appropriate course of action. The evaluation would include additional monitoring, source identification, implementation of interim protective measures (if necessary), and delineation of extent. These evaluations are necessary to determine an appropriate response action for the Ogallala. The primary goal of the Plan is to provide for the continued protection of the Ogallala Aquifer and the health of its consumers. In recognition, this Plan presents a flexible and rational approach for making future decisions associated with confirming the change in perched and Ogallala aquifer conditions and identifying a response (technical activities, changes to response actions, regulatory oversight, and public involvement).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource

Multiple grid integration studies have examined the value of demand response, including from water heaters, to bulk power systems. Common shortcomings of these studies include physically unrealistic assumptions. For example, studies often assume that all electric water heater load can be shed for up to an hour to provide capacity or contingency service, that all electric water heater load is shiftable, and that round-trip efficiencies for shifting service are 100%. Another issue is that simply summing up estimates of individual water heaters' flexibility bounds, an attractive idea for constructing the MW-scale resources necessary for direct inclusion in grid investment and operational models, can result in significant overestimates of actual resource, because, e.g., a water heater with the ability to reduce load may not be able sustain the reduction for as long as the aggregate model suggests is possible. This presentation demonstrates the impact of estimating the flexibility of electric water heaters with physically realistic models suitable for grid service analysis. Electric water heater flexibility representations are constructed based on ResStock simulations of New England. Specifically, we examine contingency resource (related to capacity, shed, and contingency reserve services) and energy shifting resource from electric resistance and heat pump water heaters. Different estimation methods are compared; and the surrogate models' event responses are validated against events directly simulated in EnergyPlus. We also demonstrate the impact of using electric water heaters for contingency reserves and energy shifting in detailed models of possible future ISO New England power systems.

building energy modeling↗

Hydrogen Production Cost from Proton-Conducting Solid Oxide Electrolysis

Rigorous stakeholder-vetted techno-economic analysis (TEA) was conducted to estimate the cost of hydrogen (H 2 ) production using Proton-Conducting Solid Oxide (PSO) electrolysis. The analysis evaluates Current (2025) and Future (2035) technology cases at centralized plant scales of 50 and 500 metric tonnes per day (MTD), assuming electricity, water, and air as the only system inputs. Untaxed, unsubsidized levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is projected to range from 2020 $\$$1.81 to $\$$2.47/kg H 2 at an electricity price of $\$$0.03/kWh and 97% capacity factor under Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) deployment assumptions. Total installed capital cost was developed using bottom-up Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) stack cost modeling and detailed balance-of-plant estimates, including mechanical and electrical subsystems, installation, site preparation, engineering, and contingency. Stack performance assumptions include thermoneutral operation, degradation over time, and periodic replacement. LCOH was calculated using the Hydrogen Analysis (H2A) discounted cash flow model in constant 2020 dollars. Results indicate PSO electrolysis has potential for competitive hydrogen production costs under low-cost electricity and mature manufacturing conditions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Statistical Steady-State Stability Analysis for Transmission System Planning for Offshore Wind Power Plant Integration

This paper presents a statistical steady-state stability analysis for transmission system planning studies in order to identify operational issues inherent in the integration of offshore wind power plants. It includes normal and contingency operation. This study considers the integration of a 1000-MW offshore wind power plant into the FirstEnergy/PJM service territory in the U.S. Great Lakes region as a case study and uses a realistic computer model of the U.S. Eastern Interconnection, a 63,000-bus test system. The results show the utility of this statistical analysis tool and its effectiveness in identification of the operational impacts as a result of the integration of offshore wind power plant.

Sajadi, Amirhossein↗

System Calibration Including Time Delay Estimation for GNSS/INS-Assisted Pushbroom Scanners Onboard UAV Platforms

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs ) equipped with imaging sensors and integrated global navigation satellite system/inertial navigation system (GNSS/INS ) units are used for numerous applications. Deriving reliable 3D coordinates from such UAVs is contingent on accurate geometric calibration, which encompasses the estimation of mounting parameters and synchronization errors. Through a rigorous impact analysis of such systematic errors, this article proposes a direct approach for spatial and temporal calibration (estimating system parameters through a bundle adjustment procedure) of a GNSS/INS -assisted pushbroom scanner onboard a UAV platform. The calibration results show that the horizontal and vertical accuracies are within the ground sampling distance of the sensor. Unlike for frame camera systems, this article also shows that the indirect approach is not a feasible solution for pushbroom scanners due to their limited ability for decoupling system parameters. This finding provides further support that the direct approach is recommended for spatial and temporal calibration of UAV pushbroom scanner systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Real-Time Federated Cyber-Transmission-Distribution Testbed Architecture for the Resiliency Analysis

With the ongoing automation driven by the push toward the smart electric grid and the advancement in associated cyber infrastructure, the interaction between physical [electric transmission and distribution (T&D) systems], cyber (communication, automation, and control), and human (grid operators and decision-makers) is increasingly becoming more complex. This creates the requirement of analyzing the effect of the transmission system on the distribution system and vice versa with consideration of the additional complexity of the cyber infrastructure. Such an integrated testbed will also help with resiliency analysis, where resiliency refers to the ability of the system to continue serving energy to the critical loads even with limited extreme contingencies. Interaction of the physical power grid with the cyber layer can be effectively modeled using real-time (RT) simulator for developing and validating various operational and control algorithms. Testbeds using RT simulators with multiple capabilities have been developed at different institutions. Still, no single existing testbed can offer full scalability while simultaneously meeting high fidelity requirements for resiliency experimentation. Co-simulating federated testbed assets can provide a scalable experimentation platform that can be leveraged for verification and validation. In this article, an architecture is developed for federated cyber-physical testbed. A local federation with two real-time simulators is developed: real-time digital simulator (RTDS) and OPAL-RT have been interfaced using VILLAS framework for end-to-end testing. Also, a real-time linear predictor is developed and integrated here to address the communication latency impact on geographically allocated federated RT simulation. Finally, resiliency analysis tools are formulated and utilized for T&D systems. Finally as an illustrative use case, the resiliency of a T&D test system is simulated, and the results are analyzed. A 179-bus Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) transmission system is developed using OPAL-RT/ HYPERSIM, and a modified IEEE 13 node feeder system is modeled in RTDS/RSCAD and interfaced for resiliency analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Developing Frequency Stability Constraint for Unit Commitment Problem Considering High Penetration of Renewables

As zero-carbon electricity systems become the trend of future grid, the system inertia provided by conventional synchronous generators (SGs) keeps decreasing. The resultant lower system inertia will inevitably cause frequency stability problem, especially in the first few seconds following disturbance. To tackle this challenge, this paper proposes a frequency stability constraint for power systems unit commitment problem by considering the fast frequency responses (FFRs) from inverter-based resources (IBRs). Our developed frequency stability constraint is grounded on an analytical frequency nadir estimation framework that considers both SG and IBR dynamics. The accuracy of our frequency nadir estimation framework is validated by most severe N-1 contingency simulation result in a real island system. Then, the adaptive inertia frequency stability constraint is derived by performing sensitivity analysis with our frequency nadir estimation framework. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our developed frequency stability constraint with one year day-ahead unit commitment results of the island system.

fast frequency response↗

Distributed Coordination of Networked Microgrids for Voltage Support in Bulk Power Grids

The increasing deployment of distributed energy resources (DERs) and microgrids (MGs) in power distribution systems has enabled the adjustment of reactive power consumption as seen at the substation, which can be used to provide voltage support for the bulk power system (BPS). Leveraging this new capability will provide greater resiliency to the power system as a whole. Here, the goal of this paper is to develop and compare three different algorithms, namely distributed optimal power flow, distributed consensus algorithm, and fully decentralized collaborative autonomy for unbalanced distribution systems for microgrid coordination. These algorithms use networked MGs to support the BPS voltage when a contingency at the bulk grid results in abnormally low voltages, which may be a precursor to voltage collapse. Our comparative analysis includes both qualitative and quantitative assessments of the three algorithms and a discussion of the trade-offs between the decentralized and distributed methods in normal and disrupted conditions. Each algorithm was evaluated on the modified IEEE 13-bus system and a real power distribution system at Chattanooga, Tennessee, that encompasses more than 4500 buses. Each algorithms excels differently and may be suited for different scenarios depending on the condition, operations, and priorities of the power and communication systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Developing Frequency Stability Constraint for Unit Commitment Problem Considering High Penetration of Renewables: Preprint

As zero-carbon electricity systems become the trend of future grid, the system inertia provided by conventional synchronous generators (SGs) keeps decreasing. The resultant lower system inertia will inevitably cause frequency stability problem, especially in the first few seconds after disturbance. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a frequency stability unit commitment constraint considering the fast frequency responses (FFRs) from inverter-based resources (IBRs). Thus, this paper first analyzes a frequency nadir differential equation that considers SG governor model and three kinds of FFR provided by IBRs. A system frequency nadir estimation framework is developed with consideration of various conventional SG and IBR models. The accuracy of this frequency estimation framework is validated by largest N-1 contingency simulation result of a real island system. Then, the adaptive inertia frequency stability unit commitment constraint is derived from sensitivity analysis method. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our developed constraints with one year day-ahead unit commitment results of the real island system.

fast frequency response↗