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At least 73 records · Page 4

Precipitation Recycling and the Vertical Distribution of Local and Remote Sources of Water for Precipitation

Precipitation recycling is defined as the amount of water that evaporates from a region that precipitates within the same region. This is also interpreted as the local source of water for precipitation. In this study, the local and remote sources of water for precipitation have been diagnosed through the use of passive constituent tracers that represent regional evaporative sources along with their transport and precipitation. We will discuss the differences between this method and the simpler bulk diagnostic approach to precipitation recycling. A summer seasonal simulation has been analyzed for the regional sources of the United States Great Plains precipitation. While the tropical Atlantic Ocean (including the Gulf of Mexico) and the local continental sources of precipitation are most dominant, the vertically integrated column of water contains substantial water content originating from the Northern Pacific Ocean, which is not precipitated. The vertical profiles of regional water sources indicate that local Great Plains source of water dominates the lower troposphere, predominantly in the PBL. However, the Pacific Ocean source is dominant over a large portion of the middle to upper troposphere. The influence of the tropical Atlantic Ocean is reasonably uniform throughout the column. While the results are not unexpected given the formulation of the model's convective parameterization, the analysis provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of local evaporation on the occurrence of convective precipitation in the GCM. Further, these results suggest that local source of water is not well mixed throughout the vertical column.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

On the Dependence of Cloud Feedbacks on Physical Parameterizations in WRF Aquaplanet Simulations

We investigate the effects of physical parameterizations on cloud feedback uncertainty in response to climate change. For this purpose, we construct an ensemble of eight aquaplanet simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In each WRF‐derived simulation, we replace only one parameterization at a time while all other parameters remain identical. By doing so, we aim to (i) reproduce cloud feedback uncertainty from state‐of‐the‐art climate models and (ii) understand how parametrizations impact cloud feedbacks. Our results demonstrate that this ensemble of WRF simulations, which differ only in physical parameterizations, replicates the range of cloud feedback uncertainty found in state‐of‐the‐art climate models. We show that microphysics and convective parameterizations govern the magnitude and sign of cloud feedbacks, mostly due to tropical low‐level clouds in subsidence regimes. Finally, this study highlights the advantages of using WRF to analyze cloud feedback mechanisms owing to its plug‐and‐play parameterization capability.

Cesana, Gregory↗

Thermospheric dynamics during November 21-22, 1981 - Dynamics Explorer measurements and thermospheric general circulation model predictions

Time-dependent aurora and magnetospheric convection parameterizations have been derived from solar wind and aurora particle data for November 21-22, 1981, and are used to drive the auroral and magnetospheric convection models that are embedded in the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermospheric general circulation model (TGCM). Neutral wind speeds and transition boundaries between the midlatitude solar-driven circulation and the high-latitude magnetospheric convection-driven circulation are examined on an orbit-by-orbit basis. The results show that TGCM-calculated winds and reversal boundary locations are in generally good agreement with Dynamics Explorer 2 measurements for the orbits studied. This suggests that, at least for this particular period of relatively moderate geomagnetic activity, the TGCM parameterizations on the eveningside of the auroral oval and polar cap are adequate.

Roble, R. G.↗

Development of Two-Moment Cloud Microphysics for Liquid and Ice Within the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5)

This work presents the development of a two-moment cloud microphysics scheme within the version 5 of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5). The scheme includes the implementation of a comprehensive stratiform microphysics module, a new cloud coverage scheme that allows ice supersaturation and a new microphysics module embedded within the moist convection parameterization of GEOS-5. Comprehensive physically-based descriptions of ice nucleation, including homogeneous and heterogeneous freezing, and liquid droplet activation are implemented to describe the formation of cloud particles in stratiform clouds and convective cumulus. The effect of preexisting ice crystals on the formation of cirrus clouds is also accounted for. A new parameterization of the subgrid scale vertical velocity distribution accounting for turbulence and gravity wave motion is developed. The implementation of the new microphysics significantly improves the representation of liquid water and ice in GEOS-5. Evaluation of the model shows agreement of the simulated droplet and ice crystal effective and volumetric radius with satellite retrievals and in situ observations. The simulated global distribution of supersaturation is also in agreement with observations. It was found that when using the new microphysics the fraction of condensate that remains as liquid follows a sigmoidal increase with temperature which differs from the linear increase assumed in most models and is in better agreement with available observations. The performance of the new microphysics in reproducing the observed total cloud fraction, longwave and shortwave cloud forcing, and total precipitation is similar to the operational version of GEOS-5 and in agreement with satellite retrievals. However the new microphysics tends to underestimate the coverage of persistent low level stratocumulus. Sensitivity studies showed that the simulated cloud properties are robust to moderate variation in cloud microphysical parameters. However significant sensitivity in ice cloud properties was found to variation in the dispersion of the ice crystal size distribution and the critical size for ice autoconversion. The implementation of the new microphysics leads to a more realistic representation of cloud processes in GEOS-5 and allows the linkage of cloud properties to aerosol emissions.

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions↗

High Resolution Global Climate Modeling with GEOS-5: Intense Precipitation, Convection and Tropical Cyclones on Seasonal Time-Scales.

In 2008 the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction concluded that "climate modeling will need-and is ready-to move to fundamentally new high-resolution approaches to capitalize on the seamlessness of the weather-climate continuum." Following from this, experimentation with very high-resolution global climate modeling has gained enhanced priority within many modeling groups and agencies. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5) has been enhanced to provide a capability for the execution at the finest horizontal resolutions POS,SIOle with a global climate model today. Using this high-resolution, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5, we have developed a unique capability to explore the intersection of weather and climate within a seamless prediction system. Week-long weather experiments, to mUltiyear climate simulations at global resolutions ranging from 3.5- to 14-km have demonstrated the predictability of extreme events including severe storms along frontal systems, extra-tropical storms, and tropical cyclones. The primary benefits of high resolution global models will likely be in the tropics, with better predictions of the genesis stages of tropical cyclones and of the internal structure of their mature stages. Using satellite data we assess the accuracy of GEOS-5 in representing extreme weather phenomena, and their interaction within the global climate on seasonal time-scales. The impacts of convective parameterization and the frequency of coupling between the moist physics and dynamics are explored in terms of precipitation intensity and the representation of deep convection. We will also describe the seasonal variability of global tropical cyclone activity within a global climate model capable of representing the most intense category 5 hurricanes.

Putnam, WilliamM.↗

Impacts of the Convective Transport Algorithm on Atmospheric Composition and Ozone-Climate Feedbacks in GEOS-CCM

Convective transport is one of the dominant factors in determining the composition of the troposphere. It is the main mechanism for lofting constituents from near-surface source regions to the middle and upper troposphere, where they can subsequently be advected over large distances. Gases reaching the upper troposphere can also be injected through the tropopause and play a subsequent role in the lower stratospheric ozone balance. Convection codes in climate models remain a great source of uncertainty for both the energy balance of the general circulation and the transport of constituents. This study uses the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM) to perform a controlled experiment that isolates the impact of convective transport of constituents from the direct changes on the atmospheric energy balance. Two multi-year simulations are conducted. In the first, the thermodynamic variable, moisture, and all trace gases are transported using the multi-plume Relaxed-Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) convective parameterization. In the second simulation, RAS impacts the thermodynamic energy and moisture in this standard manner, but all other constituents are transported differently. The accumulated convective mass fluxes (including entrainment and detrainment) computed at each time step of the GCM are used with a diffusive (bulk) algorithm for the vertical transport, which above all is less efficient at transporting constituents from the lower to the upper troposphere. Initial results show the expected differences in vertical structure of trace gases such as carbon monoxide, but also show differences in lower stratospheric ozone, in a region where it can potentially impact the climate state of the model. This work will investigate in more detail the impact of convective transport changes by comparing the two simulations over many years (1996-2010), focusing on comparisons with observed constituent distributions and similarities and differences of patterns of inter-annual variability caused by the convective transport algorithm. In particular, the impact on lower stratospheric composition will be isolated and the subsequent feedbacks of ozone on the climate forcing and tropopause structure will be assessed.

Pawson, S.↗

Lightning Over Central Canada: Skill Assessment for Various Land-Atmosphere Model Configurations and Lightning Indices Over a Boreal Study Area

Current lightning predictions are uncertain because they rely on empirical diagnostic relationships and often use coarse-scale climate scenario simulations in which deep convection is parameterized. Previous studies demonstrated that simulations with convection permitting resolutions improve lightning predictions compared to coarser-grid simulations using convection parameterizations for different geographical locations but not over the boreal zone. In this study, lightning simulations with the NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model are evaluated over a domain including the Great Slave Lake in Canada, for six lightning seasons. The simulations are performed at convection parameterized (9 km) and convection-permitting (3 km) resolution using the Goddard 4ICE and the Thompson microphysics schemes. Four lightning indices are evaluated against observations from the Canadian Lightning Detection Network, in terms of spatiotemporal frequency distribution, spatial pattern, daily climatology, and an event-based overall skill assessment. The Thompson scheme is, regardless of the spatial resolution, superior to the Goddard 4ICE scheme in predicting daily climatology but worse in predicting the spatial patterns of lightning occurrence. Results indicate that lightning estimation benefits from modeling at convection-permitting resolution, in particular for the ice based lightning indices. In contrast, the product of convective available potential energy and precipitation rate proved to be the most robust index that was largely invariant to varying spatial resolution. Finally, this study reveals issues of the models to reproduce the observed spatial pattern of lightning well, which might be related to an insufficient representation of land surface heterogeneity, including peatlands, in the study area.

Jonas Mortelmans↗

Recent deformation rates on Venus

Constraints on the recent geological evolution of Venus may be provided by quantitative estimates of the rates of the principal resurfacing processes, volcanism and tectonism. This paper focuses on the latter, using impact craters as strain indicators. The total postimpact tectonic strain lies in the range 0.5-6.5%, which defines a recent mean strain rate of 10(exp -18)-10(exp -17)/s when divided by the mean surface age. Interpretation of the cratering record as one of pure production requires a decline in resurfacing rates at about 500 Ma (catastrophic resurfacing model). If distributed tectonic resurfacing contributed strongly before that time, as suggested by the widespread occurrence of tessera as inliers, the mean global strain rate must have been at least approximately 10(exp -15)/s, which is also typical of terrestrial active margins. Numerical calculations of the response of the lithosphere to inferred mantle convective forces were performed to test the hypothesis that a decrease in surface strain rate by at least two orders of magnitude could be caused by a steady decline in heat flow over the last billion years. Parameterized convection models predict that the mean global thermal gradient decreases by only about 5 K/km over this time; even with the exponential dependence of viscosity upon temperature, the surface strain rate drops by little more than one order of magnitude. Strongly unsteady cooling and very low thermal gradients today are necessary to satisfy the catastrophic model. An alternative, uniformitarian resurfacing hypothesis holds that Venus is resurfaced in quasi-random 'patches' several hundred kilometers in size that occur in response to changing mantle convection patterns.

Grimm, Robert E.↗

Convective Entrainment Rates Estimated from Aura CO and CloudSat/CALIPSO Observations and Comparison with GEOS-5

Entrainment rate (λ) in convective parameterizations remains a sensitive parameter with much uncertainty in model simulations. This study estimates λ using carbon monoxide (CO) measurements jointly from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) onboard the Aura satellite, associated with deep convective cases identified by CloudSat and CALIPSO observations. CO is treated as a conserved quantity over convective transport time scales and a simple entraining-plume model is used to derive entrainment rates. The relationships of the observational estimates of λ as a function of convective height, environmental relative humidity and convective available potential energy (CAPE) derived from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data are compared with those from Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5) simulations. Bulk statistics of λ show that the values of λ are predominately below 20% km(exp-1) for deep convection and the occurrence frequency of any λ decreases with increasing λ. Composite λ values are generally lower in the tropics compared to northern mid-latitudes in both observations and the GEOS-5 model. A decrease of λ with increasing convective height is found in both observations and model simulations. We also find that λ tends to decrease with increasing CAPE in the observation-based λ’s and plume-based GEOS-5 λ’s, although the model given λ’s have a non-monotonic relation with CAPE. The observed λ’s have a weak relation with lower-to-mid tropospheric RH, while both GEOS-5 plume-based and given λ increases with increasing RH.

Ryan E Stanfield↗

Thermal evolution of Ganymede and Callisto - Effects of solid-state convection and constraints from Voyager imagery

The imaging experiments of the Voyager 1 and 2 fly-by missions have provided a large amount of information about the nature of the surfaces of the Galilean satellites. The present investigation is concerned with the development of models regarding the thermal evolution of Ganymede and Callisto, taking into account the approach of parameterized convection. Attention is given to the physical, chemical, and geological data which are available as constraints on the thermal evolution of Ganymede and Callisto. Both satellites appear to possess surfaces composed of silicates and ice. However, their surface features are distinctly different from each other. In the discussion of thermal evolution models, attention is given to ice-dominant rheology, silicate-dominant rheology, and aspects of phase changes and solid-state convection.

Thurber, C. H.↗

Using High Frequency Passive Microwave, A-train, and TRMM Data to Evaluate Hydrometer Structure in the NASA GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System

Validating water vapor and prognostic condensate in global models remains a challenging research task. Model parameterizations are still subject to a large number of tunable parameters; furthermore, accurate and representative in situ observations are very sparse, and satellite observations historically have significant quantitative uncertainties. Progress on improving cloud / hydrometeor fields in models stands to benefit greatly from the growing inventory ofA-Train data sets. ill the present study we are using a variety of complementary satellite retrievals of hydrometeors to examine condensate produced by the emerging NASA Modem Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and its associated atmospheric general circulation model GEOS5. Cloud and precipitation are generated by both grid-scale prognostic equations and by the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) diagnostic convective parameterization. The high frequency channels (89 to 183.3 GHz) from AMSU-B and MRS on NOAA polar orbiting satellites are being used to evaluate the climatology and variability of precipitating ice from tropical convective anvils. Vertical hydrometeor structure from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and CloudSat radars are used to develop statistics on vertical hydrometeor structure in order to better interpret the extensive high frequency passive microwave climatology. Cloud liquid and ice water path data retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS, are used to investigate relationships between upper level cloudiness and tropical deep convective anvils. Together these data are used to evaluate cloud / ice water path, gross aspects of vertical hydrometeor structure, and the relationship between cloud extent and surface precipitation that the MERRA reanalysis must capture.

Robertson, Franklin↗

Dependence of tropospheric temperature on the parameterization of cumulus convection in the GLAS model of the general circulation

Analysis of the simulation of seasonal change by the GLAS model of the general circulation reveals deficiencies in the simulation of tropospheric temperature and of convective cloud cover. These interrelated deficiencies are due to a spurious doubling from January to July in the convective cloud cover of the Northern Hemisphere. The spurious doubling, in turn, is due to the oversensitivity of cumulus convection, in the GLAS model, to the specific humidity of the lower atmosphere. The oversensitivity is enhanced by a feedback mechanism which perpetuates the existence of deep, penetrative convective clouds at certain preferred locations. The cumulus parameterization scheme has been modified to more realistically relate the onset of cumulus convection to the relative humidity of the lower atmosphere. The modified parameterization has improved the simulation of tropospheric temperature, planetary albedo and convective cloud cover as well as their seasonal variations. Comparison of this experiment with its control has shown a high degree of interrelation among these fields in the GLAS model and has demonstrated the sensitivity of the atmospheric heat budget to the design of the cumulus parameterization scheme. Also, the modification to the cumulus scheme has demonstrated a plausible mechanism to explain the correlation between convective cloud cover and relative humidity in the real atmosphere.

Helfand, H. M.↗

The Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes

The Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) is described and the first stage science plan outlined. PILPS is a project designed to improve the parameterization of the continental surface, especially the hydrological, energy, momentum, and carbon exchanges with the atmosphere. The PILPS Science Plan incorporates enhanced documentation, comparison, and validation of continental surface parameterization schemes by community participation. Potential participants include code developers, code users, and those who can provide datasets for validation and who have expertise of value in this exercise. PILPS is an important activity because existing intercomparisons, although piecemeal, demonstrate that there are significant differences in the formulation of individual processes in the available land surface schemes. These differences are comparable to other recognized differences among current global climate models such as cloud and convection parameterizations. It is also clear that too few sensitivity studies have been undertaken with the result that there is not yet enough information to indicate which simplifications or omissions are important for the near-surface continental climate, hydrology, and biogeochemistry. PILPS emphasizes sensitivity studies with and intercomparisons of existing land surface codes and the development of areally extensive datasets for their testing and validation.

Henderson-Sellers, A.↗

The role of a pressure-dependent rheology in the dynamics of mantle circulation

A thermomechanical model for upper mantle convection was constructed such that the thickness and the structure of the lithosphere are determined self consistently by the heat transported by convection. In this study of the interaction between the lithosphere and upper mantle, strongly temperature and pressure dependent rheologies for both Newtonian and non-Newtonian creep mechanisms are employed. For a strictly temperature dependent rheology an insignificant amount of heat, less than 12.5 mW/sq m, can be transported convectively for an interior viscosity, 0(10 sup 21 Pas), compatible with post glacial rebound. On the other hand, for similar values of the interior viscosity, steady heat fluxes between 20 and 40 mW/sq m are produced by introducing pressure dependence into the rheology. For the temperature and pressure dependent flow law the horizontally averaged interior temperature displays very little variation with the amount of heat evacuated, once all of the rheological parameters are fixed. This finding may have important ramifications for parameterized convection.

Yuen, D. A.↗

The vagaries of variable viscosity convection

The wavelength dependence of convection with a temperature-dependent viscosity is studied using two-dimensional finite difference models. A steady-state solution with a horizontal wavelength of eight times the depth is found to transport heat more efficiently than a solution with exactly the same parameters but with a wavelength of twice the depth. Only at the longer wavelengths is it possible for the top high viscosity boundary layer to participate more fully in the flow. Using models with a constant heat flux resulted in a decrease in the interior temperature of approximately 30% for the longer wavelength. It is also demonstrated that a parameterization using only a constant viscosity thermal structure and an interior viscosity is inadequate to parameterize the variable viscosity calculations described. This suggests that parameterized convection schemes may not accurately resolve the thermal evolution of planetary interior unless they can correctly include the effects of vertical viscosity structure.

Daly, S. F.↗

Diurnal forcing of planetary atmospheres

A free convection parameterization has been introduced into the Mars Planetary Boundary Layer Model (MPBL). Previously, the model would fail to generate turbulence under conditions of zero wind shear, even when statically unstable. This in turn resulted in erroneous results at the equator, for example, when the lack of Coriolis forcing allowed zero wind conditions. The underlying cause of these failures was the level 2 second-order turbulence closure scheme which derived diffusivities as algebraic functions of the Richardson number (the ratio of static stability to wind shear). In the previous formulation, the diffusivities were scaled by the wind shear--a convenient parameter since it is non-negative. This was the drawback that all diffusivities are zero under conditions of zero shear (viz., the free convection case). The new scheme tests for the condition of zero shear in conjunction with static instability and recalculates the diffusivities using a static stability scaling. The results for a simulation of the equatorial boundary layer at autumnal equinox are presented. (Note that after some wind shear is generated, the model reverts to the traditional diffusivity calculation.)

Houben, Howard C.↗

Using Ensemble Short-Term Initialized Coupled NASA GEOS5 Climate Model Integrations to Study Convective Bias Growth

The representation of convective processes, particularly deep convection in the tropics, remains a persistent problem in climate models. In fact structural biases in the distribution of tropical rainfall in the CMIP5 models is hardly different than that of the CMIP3 versions. Given that regional climate change at higher latitudes is sensitive to the configuration of tropical forcing, this persistent bias is a major issue for the credibility of climate change projections. In this study we use model output from integrations of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Five (GEOS5) climate modeling system to study the evolution of biases in the location and intensity of convective processes. We take advantage of a series of hindcast experiments done in support of the US North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) initiative. For these experiments a nine-month forecast using a coupled model configuration is made approximately every five days over the past 30 years. Each forecast is started with an updated analysis of the ocean, atmosphere and land states. For a given calendar month we have approximately 180 forecasts with daily means of various quantities. These forecasts can be averaged to essentially remove "weather scales" and highlight systematic errors as they evolve. Our primary question is to ask how the spatial structure of daily mean precipitation over the tropics evolves from the initial state and what physical processes are involved. Errors in parameterized convection, various water and energy fluxes and the divergent circulation are found to set up on fast time scales (order five days) compared to errors in the ocean, although SST changes can be non-negligible over that time. For the month of June the difference between forecast day five versus day zero precipitation looks quite similar to the difference between the June precipitation climatology and that from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). We focus much of our analysis on the influence of SST gradients, associated PBL baroclinicity enabled by turbulent mixing, the ensuing PBL moisture convergence, and how changes in these processes relate to convective precipitation bias growth over this short period.

Cohen, Charlie↗

Evaluation of a Cloud Resolving Model Using TRMM Observations for Multiscale Modeling Applications

The climate change simulation community is moving toward use of global cloud resolving models (CRMs), however, current computational resources are not sufficient to run global CRMs over the hundreds of years necessary to produce climate change estimates. As an intermediate step between conventional general circulation models (GCMs) and global CRMs, many climate analysis centers are embedding a CRM in each grid cell of a conventional GCM. These Multiscale Modeling Frameworks (MMFs) represent a theoretical advance over the use of conventional GCM cloud and convection parameterizations, but have been shown to exhibit an overproduction of precipitation in the tropics during the northern hemisphere summer. In this study, simulations of clouds, precipitation, and radiation over the South China Sea using the CRM component of the NASA Goddard MMF are evaluated using retrievals derived from the instruments aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite platform for a 46-day time period that spans 5 May - 20 June 1998. The NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is forced with observed largescale forcing derived from soundings taken during the intensive observing period of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment. It is found that the GCE configuration used in the NASA Goddard MMF responds too vigorously to the imposed large-scale forcing, accumulating too much moisture and producing too much cloud cover during convective phases, and overdrying the atmosphere and suppressing clouds during monsoon break periods. Sensitivity experiments reveal that changes to ice cloud microphysical parameters have a relatively large effect on simulated clouds, precipitation, and radiation, while changes to grid spacing and domain length have little effect on simulation results. The results motivate a more detailed and quantitative exploration of the sources and magnitude of the uncertainty associated with specified cloud microphysical parameters in the CRM components of MMFs.

Posselt, Derek J.↗