Studies in software cost model behavior: do we really understand cost model performance
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cost modeling↗
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Energy Storage Cost and Performance Database
In support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Storage Grand Challenge, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is applying its rich history of battery research and development to provide the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and industry with a guide to current energy storage costs and performance metrics for various technologies. Cost and performance metrics for individual technologies track the following to provide an overall cost of ownership for each technology: cost to procure, install, and connect an energy storage system; associated operational and maintenance costs; and end-of-life costs. These metrics are intended to support DOE and industry stakeholders in making sound decisions about future R&D directions and priorities that move the United States closer to its goal of energy independence. The technologies currently being evaluated are lithium-ion [lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and nickel manganese cobalt (NMC)] batteries, vanadium redox flow batteries, lead-acid batteries, zinc-based batteries, hydrogen energy storage, pumped storage hydropower, gravitational energy storage, compressed air energy storage, and thermal energy storage.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Magnetic Gears for a Marine Hydrokinetic Generator Component Model
The goal of this project is to design, fabricate, and test a hermetically sealed 50 kilowatt (kW) multistage magnetically geared generator (MGG). The Component Content Model provides data submitters with an easy and consistent means of uploading data and associated meta data about a component that is currently under development. The data fields include generic information about the component, technology classifications, current costs and performance, proposed target goals, and the environment that the component is operated in. These data are important to DOE and will be used to develop data products that provide quantitative information to guide and support programmatic decisions. Data will also be used by DOE in general assessments of MHK component readiness, performance, costs, and proposed plans. The ultimate goal is to use these data to perform research and tailor programs to best benefit the industry.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Cost and Performance Projections for Coal- and Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants
This report provides quantitative estimates of future cost and performance improvements for fossil-fueled power plants equipped with carbon capture developed through the adaption/modification of relevant Aspen Plus ® case study models from published NETL techno-economic analyses. The cost and performance estimates in this report are meant to represent prospective improvements that may be realized for low-carbon-emitting PC and NGCC power plants through robust commercial deployment (e.g., learning by doing) of high TRL technologies as well as additional investments in targeted RD&D activities. The methodology used to develop the estimates in this report is intended to allow direct comparison of the technology improvements with the SOA baseline published in NETL’s Fossil Energy Baseline (Rev 4a) Report.
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
Cost and Performance Estimates for State-of-the-Art and Advanced 1×1 H-Class Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants
As an extension of NETL's Fossil Energy Baseline for Electricity Generating Units Volume 1: Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity (FEB Rev 4a, this study develops cost and performance estimates for analogous NGCC cases using a state-of-the-art 2023 vintage H-Class CT in a 1×1 configuration, where a single combustion turbine and heat recovery steam generator are coupled to a single steam turbine on a common shaft. These 1×1 H-Class cases are used to develop cost and performance estimates of X-Class 1×1 NGCC cases with advanced performance characteristics, analogous to NETL’s cost and performance projections report.
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
2020 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Transportation Technologies
The 2020 Transportation Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) provides detailed cost and performance data, estimates, and assumptions for vehicle and fuel technologies in the United States. The Transportation ATB includes current and projected estimates through 2050 for light-duty vehicle technologies as well as conventional and alternative fuels. This excel files include vehicle, fuel, and joined vehicle and fuel data with calculated levelized cost and emission values associated with the 2020 Transportation ATB. NREL has also provided a Tableau workbook to further explore the data. A website documents this data at https://atb.nlr.gov .
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Supplement: Sensitivity to CO 2 Capture Rate In Coal-Fired Power Plants
The cost and performance of various plants designed to meet a range of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission limits are evaluated in this report by varying the CO 2 capture rate. The base cases for these designs are the supercritical (SC) pulverized coal (PC) plant and the General Electric Power (GEP) integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant from the Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) report “Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants, Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity, Revision 4” (“Bituminous Baseline”).
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
Examination of Factors Affecting the Cost and Performance of a Natural Gas Combined Cycle Equipped with Carbon Dioxide Capture
The purpose of this Technical Note is to report the findings of an examination of the effect of plausible deviations in select study assumptions on the reported cost and performance estimates for a power plant case drawn from NETL’s “Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity” (known as the Fossil Energy Baseline). An F-Class NGCC power plant equipped with state-of-the-art, solvent-based, post-combustion carbon dioxide (CO2) capture (95 percent carbon capture rate)—designated as Case B31B.95—was selected for this work. This sensitivity analysis provides insight into the effects of parameter variations within and across selected categories—ambient conditions, construction cost, natural gas (NG) price, capacity factor, and finance—on the plant performance and capital and operating and maintenance (O&M) costs, and the subsequent impact on common figures of merit.
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
Techno-Economic Analysis of CSP Incorporating sCO2 Brayton Power Cycles: Trade-Off Between Cost and Performance
Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants, thanks to the implementation of cost-competitive thermal energy storage, represent a dispatchable zero-emission alternative to traditional fossil fuel power plants. Next generation solar towers are expected to adopt high temperature receivers (>700 degrees C) coupled to sCO2-based power blocks, which optimal design is generally pushed towards the maximum cycle efficiency, often neglecting the economic impact with the justification that the main share of the capital cost is represented by the heliostat field. As result, the scientific literature lacks in comprehensive studies on techno-economic evaluation of CSP+sCO2 power plants addressing the important correlation that exists between system cost and performances. This work provides a preliminary techno-economic analysis of a solar power tower comparing four different cycle configurations for the sCO2 power block. Results have been reported on a Pareto front, highlighting the tradeoff between the plant investment cost and the solar-to-electricity plant efficiency. The trends of the optimization variables and cycle results have been reported to give useful insights about proper assumptions for the sCO2 power block design. The recompressed cycle with intercooling resulted as the most promising configuration and it has been further analyzed through a comparison of different solutions on the Pareto front. The cost breakdown of the sCO2 power block has been reported to highlight which components have the greatest impact on the overall plant cost and how they vary along the optimal solutions front. Eventually, the optimization has been repeated introducing a correlation to compute the turbomachinery isentropic efficiencies, to investigate their effect on the techno- economic analysis.
concentrated solar power↗
Scalable and Highly-Efficient Microbial Electrochemical Reactor for Hydrogen Generation from Wastes
The overall goal of this project was to develop a scalable and highly efficient hybrid microbial electrochemical reactor for hydrogen recovery from waste streams at a cost of less than $\$$2/kg H₂. The specific objectives were: (1) to design and fabricate a scalable and highly efficient microbial electrochemical cell (MEC) reactor, and (2) to determine the techno-economic feasibility of the system for H₂ generation from organic-rich waste streams. We achieved the first objective by (a) developing low-cost electrode materials, (b) synthesizing a highly efficient cathode catalyst in a scalable manner, (c) evaluating and validating the developed electrode material and catalyst in MEC reactors, and (d) designing and fabricating a larger reactor that incorporates (a) to (c). We met the second objective by (a) identifying the impacts of wastewater composition and operational conditions on H₂ production, and (b) developing a cost-performance model that identified critical parameters affecting the system's performance and cost, providing a pathway for further improvement.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Rapid Cost Assessment of Space Mission Concepts Through Application of Complexity-Based Cost Indices
This slide presentation reviews the development of a rapid cost assessment models for evaluation of exploration missions through the application of complexity based cost indices. In Fall of 2004, NASA began developing 13 documents, known as "strategic roadmaps," intended to outline a strategy for space exploration over the next 30 years. The Third Strategic Roadmap, The Strategic Roadmap for Solar System Exploration, focused on strategy for robotic exploration of the Solar System. Development of the Strategic Roadmap for Solar System Exploration led to the investigation of a large variety of missions. However, the necessity of planning around scientific inquiry and budgetary constraints made it necessary for the roadmap development team to evaluate potential missions not only for scientific return but also cost. Performing detailed cost studies for each of the large number of missions was impractical given the time constraints involved and lack of detailed mission studies; so a method of rapid cost assessment was developed by us to allow preliminary analysis. It has been noted that there is a strong correlation between complexity and cost and schedule of planetary missions. While these correlations were made after missions had been built and flown (successfully or otherwise), it seemed likely that a similar approach could provide at least some relative cost ranking. Cost estimation relationships (CERs) have been developed based on subsystem design choices. These CERs required more detailed information than available, forcing the team to adopt a more high level approach. Costing by analogy has been developed for small satellites, however, planetary exploration missions provide such varying spacecraft requirements that there is a lack of adequately comparable missions that can be used for analogy.
cost estimation↗
Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity
This report presents an independent assessment of the cost and performance of select fossil energy power systems—pulverized coal (PC) and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants—using a systematic, transparent, technical, and economic approach. This is Volume 1 of the baseline series: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity. The cost and performance of fossil fuel‐based generation technologies represented in this report are important inputs to assessments and determinations of technology combinations to be utilized to meet the projected demands of future power markets. From a research and development perspective, this report is used to assess goals and metrics and to provide a consistent basis for comparing developing technologies. The main report consists of fifteen power plant configurations, six PC cases (with and without carbon capture) nine NGCC cases (with and without carbon capture) and few additional cases of higher capture rate, for both PC and NGCC plants in the appendix. In addition to the report, an interactive tool was developed that allows users to manipulate six key study parameters simultaneously for each case and visualize the impact on three metrics: 1) levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), 2) cost of CO 2 capture (CCC), and 3) cost of CO 2 avoided (CCA). Following is the link to the interactive tool: https://netl.doe.gov/NETLVol1BaselineTool
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity
This revised report presents an independent assessment of the cost and performance of select fossil energy power systems—integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), pulverized coal (PC), and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants—using a systematic, transparent technical and economic approach. The cost and performance of fossil fuel-based generation technologies represented in this report (and the series at large) are important inputs to assessments and determinations of technology combinations to be utilized to meet the projected demands of future power markets. In addition to informing technology comparisons, the reference plant configurations found in this report provide perspective for regulators and policy makers. From a research and development perspective, this report is used to assess goals and metrics and to provide a consistent basis for comparing developing technologies.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 3: Low Rank Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity
This report presents an independent assessment of the cost and performance of select fossil energy power systems—pulverized coal (PC), circulating fluidized bed (CFB), and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants—using a systematic, transparent technical and economic approach. This is Volume 3 of a five-volume series, which comprise the following reports: Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity; Volume 2: Coal to Synthetic Natural Gas and Ammonia (Various Coal Ranks); Volume 3: Low Rank Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity; Volume 4: Bituminous Coal to Liquid Fuels; and Volume 5: Natural Gas Electricity Generating Units for Flexible Operation. The cost and performance of fossil fuel-based generation technologies represented in this report (and the series at large) are important inputs to assessments and determinations of technology combinations to be utilized to meet the projected demands of future power markets. In addition to informing technology comparisons, the reference plant configurations found in this report provide perspective for regulators and policy makers. From a research and development perspective, this report is used to assess goals and metrics and to provide a consistent basis for comparing developing technologies.
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
2021 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Electricity Generation Technologies
Starting in 2015 NREL has presented the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) in an Excel workbook that contains detailed cost and performance data, both current and projected, for renewable and conventional technologies. The workbook includes a spreadsheet for each technology. This version of the workbook provides the final updates to data for the 2021 ATB. In 2019 and 2020, NREL has also provided selected data in Tableau workbooks and structured summary csv files. The data for 2015 - 2020 is located on https://data.nrel.gov. In 2021 and going forward, the data is cloud optimized and provided in the OEDI data lake. A website documents this and future data at https://atb.nrel.gov.
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2022 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Transportation Technologies
The 2022 Transportation Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) provides detailed cost and performance data, estimates, and assumptions for vehicle and fuel technologies in the United States. It includes current and projected estimates: time-series through 2050 for light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicle technologies; scenarios for conventional and alternative fuels. It details the assumptions used to calculate those costs, such as natural gas and electricity prices, discount rates, and vehicle miles traveled. The 2022 Transportation ATB vehicle data are specifically for cars powered by gasoline, diesel, natural gas, gasoline hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel-cell powertrains and for trucks powered by diesel, diesel hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell powertrains. Fuels and blendstocks include gasoline, ethanol, blendstock for oxygenate blending, diesel, diesel from biomass, natural gas, electricity, hydrogen, aviation fuel, and marine fuel. At this time, the ATB does not include other vehicles such as buses, 2- and 3-wheeled motorized vehicles, or non-road vehicles such as aircraft, vessels, locomotives, and those for industry and agriculture. See "ATB Transportation Website" resource below for more project information.
2022↗
2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Transportation Technologies
The 2024 Transportation Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) provides detailed cost and performance data, estimates, and assumptions for vehicle and fuel technologies in the United States. It includes current and projected estimates: time-series through 2050 for light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicle technologies; scenarios for conventional and alternative fuels. It details the assumptions used to calculate those costs, such as natural gas and electricity prices, discount rates, and vehicle miles traveled. The 2024 Transportation ATB vehicle data are specifically for cars powered by gasoline, diesel, natural gas, gasoline hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel-cell powertrains and for trucks powered by diesel, diesel hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell powertrains. Fuels and blendstocks include gasoline, ethanol, blendstock for oxygenate blending, diesel, diesel from biomass, natural gas, electricity, hydrogen, aviation fuel, and marine fuel. At this time, the ATB does not include other vehicles such as 2- and 3-wheeled motorized vehicles, or non-road vehicles such as aircraft, vessels, locomotives, and those for industry and agriculture. See "Transportation ATB Website" resource below for more project information.
2024↗
2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Electricity Generation Technologies
These data provide the 2024 update of the Electricity Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Starting in 2015 NREL has presented the ATB, consisting of detailed cost and performance data, both current and projected, for electricity generation and storage technologies. The ATB products now include data (Excel workbook, Tableau workbooks, and structured summary csv files), as well as documentation and user engagement via a website, presentation, and webinar. Starting in 2021, the data are cloud optimized and provided in the OEDI data lake. The data for 2015 - 2020 are can be found on the NREL Data Search Page. The website documentation can be found on the ATB Website.
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