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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizeable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of Value at Risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and to assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. The paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verification of the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. The results of this paper present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Launch Systems Operations Cost Model

One of NASA's primary missions is to reduce the cost of access to space while simultaneously increasing safety. A key component, and one of the least understood, is the recurring operations and support cost for reusable launch systems. In order to predict these costs, NASA, under the leadership of the Independent Program Assessment Office (IPAO), has commissioned the development of a Launch Systems Operations Cost Model (LSOCM). LSOCM is a tool to predict the operations & support (O&S) cost of new and modified reusable (and partially reusable) launch systems. The requirements are to predict the non-recurring cost for the ground infrastructure and the recurring cost of maintaining that infrastructure, performing vehicle logistics, and performing the O&S actions to return the vehicle to flight. In addition, the model must estimate the time required to cycle the vehicle through all of the ground processing activities. The current version of LSOCM is an amalgamation of existing tools, leveraging our understanding of shuttle operations cost with a means of predicting how the maintenance burden will change as the vehicle becomes more aircraft like. The use of the Conceptual Operations Manpower Estimating Tool/Operations Cost Model (COMET/OCM) provides a solid point of departure based on shuttle and expendable launch vehicle (ELV) experience. The incorporation of the Reliability and Maintainability Analysis Tool (RMAT) as expressed by a set of response surface model equations gives a method for estimating how changing launch system characteristics affects cost and cycle time as compared to today's shuttle system. Plans are being made to improve the model. The development team will be spending the next few months devising a structured methodology that will enable verified and validated algorithms to give accurate cost estimates. To assist in this endeavor the LSOCM team is part of an Agency wide effort to combine resources with other cost and operations professionals to support models, databases, and operations assessments.

Prince, Frank A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulation-based Performance Evaluation of Model Predictive Control for Building Energy Systems

The performance of model predictive control (MPC) can be significantly affected by different choices of controller parameters such as the time intervals for model discretization and control sampling. Due to the lack of a systematic understanding on how these parameters affect control performance, they are usually selected arbitrarily in practice.In this paper, the combined impacts of selected time intervals for model discretization and control sampling on the performance of MPC are comprehensively investigated for the first time through detailed simulations. Specifically, a typical MPC strategy is first designed to improve building operations based on a reduced-order model of building dynamics. Then, the performance of the designed MPC is evaluated against different choices of time intervals for model discretization and control sampling on a simulated office building. The detailed simulation results reveal that the time interval for model discretization has a much greater influence on the performance of MPC than the time interval for control sampling. Although the time interval for control sampling usually receives more attentions in practice, it turns out that the time interval for model discretization affects the prediction performance, cost saving, and computation time simultaneously and more significantly. Therefore, the simulation-based performance evaluation presented here sheds light on the impacts of different time intervals and facilitates their selection for practical applications of MPC to building operations

Huang, Sen↗
DOE OSTI2023

Patterns, drivers, and a predictive model of dam removal cost in the United States

Given the burgeoning dam removal movement and the large number of dams approaching obsolescence in the United States, cost estimating data and tools are needed for dam removal prioritization, planning, and execution. We used the list of removed dams compiled by American Rivers to search for publicly available reported costs for dam removal projects. Total cost information could include component costs related to project planning, dam deconstruction, monitoring, and several categories of mitigation activities. We compiled reported costs from 455 unique sources for 668 dams removed in the United States from 1965 to 2020. The dam removals occurred within 571 unique projects involving 1–18 dams. When adjusted for inflation into 2020 USD, cost of these projects totaled $\$1.522$ billion, with per-dam costs ranging from $\$1$ thousand (k) to $\$268.8$ million (M). The median cost for dam removals was $\$157$k, $\$823$k, and $\$6.2$M for dams that were< 5 m, between 5–10 m, and > 10 m in height, respectively. Geographic differences in total costs showed that northern states in general, and the Pacific Northwest in particular, spent the most on dam removal. The Midwest and the Northeast spent proportionally more on removal of dams less than 5 m in height, whereas the Northwest and Southwest spent the most on larger dam removals > 10 m tall. We used stochastic gradient boosting with quantile regression to model dam removal cost against potential predictor variables including dam characteristics (dam height and material), hydrography (average annual discharge and drainage area), project complexity (inferred from construction and sediment management, mitigation, and post-removal cost drivers), and geographic region. Dam height, annual average discharge at the dam site, and project complexity were the predominant drivers of removal cost. The final model had an R 2 of 57% and when applied to a test dataset model predictions had a root mean squared error of $\$5.09$M and a mean absolute error of $\$1.45$M, indicating its potential utility to predict estimated costs of dam removal. We developed a R shiny application for estimating dam removal costs using customized model inputs for exploratory analyses and potential dam removal planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1983

KSC Construction Cost Index

Kennedy Space Center cost Index aids in conceptual design cost estimates. Report discusses development of KSC Cost Index since January 1974. Index since January 1974. Index provides management, design engineers, and estimators an up-to-data reference for local labor and material process. Also provides mount and rate of change in these costs used to predict future construction costs.

Brown, J. A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Front-end engineering design (FEED) studies: a quantitative analysis

NETL has devised a methodology for normalizing FEED study metrics of interest and allowing cautious quantitative comparison across FEED studies. This presentation introduces the novel quantitative comparison methodology and presents results from utilizing this methodology to examine data presented in recent FEED study reports. The quantitative methodology developed for the examination of FEED study performance and cost also allows comparison of real-world performance and costs against NETL TEA model predicted performance and cost. Learnings from examining NETL model predicted performance and cost versus real world reported values are highlighted. These learnings provide insight into NETL TEA model uncertainty and highlight opportunities for further model development.

FEED Studies↗
DOE OSTI2022

A physics-informed multi-agents model to predict thermo-oxidative/hydrolytic aging of elastomers

This paper introduces a novel physics-informed multi-agents constitutive model to propose prediction in quasi-static constitutive behavior of cross-linked elastomer and the loss of mechanical performance during environmental aging. The presented model is used to simulate the effect of single-mechanism chemical aging (i.e. thermal-inducedor hydrolytic aging) on the behavior of the material in this hybrid framework. Those environmental single-mechanism damages change the polymer matrix over time due to massive chain scission, chain formations, and changing the arrangement of molecules in the polymer matrix. Here we propose a data-driven super-constrained machine-learned engine to represent damage in the polymer matrix and capture the changes in material behavior, including its inelastic features such as Mullins effect and permanent set in the course of aging. We have simplified the 3D stress–strain tensor mapping problem into a small number of super-constrained 1D mapping problems by means of a sequential order reduction. An assembly of multiple replicated conditional neural-network learning-agents (L-agents) is trained to systematically simplify the high-dimensional mapping problem into multiple 1D problems, each represented by a different type of agent. Our hybrid framework is designed to capture the effect of deformation history, aging time, and aging temperature. The model is validated with respect to a comprehensive set of experiments specifically designed to benchmark model capabilities and also against available data in the literature. Thermodynamic consistency and frame independency have been verified. Besides acceptable predictive abilities, a significant reduction of computational cost to predict behavior at multiple states of deformation is the most significant feature of this model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1992

Development of advanced high temperature in-cylinder components and tribological systems for low heat rejection diesel engines, phase 1

Analysis and concept design work completed in Phase 1 have identified a low heat rejection engine configuration with the potential to meet the Heavy Duty Transport Technology program specific fuel consumption goal of 152 g/kW-hr. The proposed engine configuration incorporates low heat rejection, in-cylinder components designed for operation at 24 MPa peak cylinder pressure. Water cooling is eliminated by selective oil cooling of the components. A high temperature lubricant will be required due to increased in-cylinder operating temperatures. A two-stage turbocharger air system with intercooling and aftercooling was selected to meet engine boost and BMEP requirements. A turbocompound turbine stage is incorporated for exhaust energy recovery. The concept engine cost was estimated to be 43 percent higher compared to a Caterpillar 3176 engine. The higher initial engine cost is predicted to be offset by reduced operating costs due the lower fuel consumption.

Kroeger, C. A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low-Cost, High-Performance Carbon Fiber for Compressed Natural Gas Storage Tanks (Final Technical Report – Down Select Report)

The aim of this project is to reduce the cost of Type IV, carbon fiber (CF) composite overwrap compressed gas storage tanks by reducing the cost of CF and CF composites. The project team worked to reduce the cost of CF by exploring and testing opportunities for a low-cost alternative precursor material for CF production to supplant market-dominant and costly polyacrylonitrile (PAN). Concurrently, the team aimed to reduce the cost of the tanks at the composite level by improving the interfacial adhesion between the fibers and the matrix resin through the incorporation of low-cost nanoparticles recycled from waste materials, which would reduce the volume of costly CF required to achieve the same tank performance. At the end of the first year, the project team selected mesophase pitch as the primary precursor candidate from a field of materials based on the superior mechanical performance and cost-saving potential. During the second year, the team produced CFs derived from mesophase pitch achieving an average tensile strength of 365.6 ksi and average tensile modulus of 40.74 Msi. Facility availability for spinning and converting these fibers at greater scale has hindered scale-up demonstration, but the team has identified opportunities to conduct this work in the near term. Cost modeling shows that these mesophase pitch-derived CFs can be up to 40% less expensive than PAN-derived CFs due to the lower cost of the feedstock material, higher throughput, greater conversion yield, and lower cost spinning method and compared to PAN. Additionally, the team has demonstrated at lab-scale that nanoparticle coating CFs can significantly increase the interfacial shear strength and load transfer efficiency of CFs in a matrix. Single filament pull-out testing showed a 27% average increase in max interfacial shear strength due to this coating. A continuous method of applying these coatings to a tow of CF has been developed for scale-up. 26 m tows of coated CFs were produced using this system and formed into composite ring samples for ASTM ring burst testing. Issues with the testing protocol have limited assessment of these results. A prototype Type IV tank was designed to meet ANSI HGV2 standards, and the design criteria set out by DOE, using the CF properties developed by the team paired with a proprietary resin matrix, a polyamide liner, and aluminum end bosses. The tank weighs 153.1 kg and with a total capacity of 5.8 kg H2 (5.6 kg usable), which yields a gravimetric capacity of 1.17 kWh/kg. Cost modeling predicts that the tank will have a projected cost of $15.73/kWh. Tank performance modeling does not include considerations for fiber-matrix load transfer efficiency improvements offered by nanoparticle coating method.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative and Cost Analysis of a Novel Predictive Power Ramp Rate Control Method: A Case Study in a PV Power Plant in Puerto Rico

One of the most important aspects that need to be addressed to increase solar energy penetration is the power ramp-rate control. In weak grids such as the one found in Puerto Rico, it is important to smooth power fluctuations caused by the intermittence of passing clouds. In this work, a novel power ramp-rate control strategy is proposed. Additionally, a comparison with some of the most common power ramp-rate control methods is performed using a proposed model and real solar radiation data from the Coto Laurel photovoltaic power plant located in Ponce, Puerto Rico. The proposed model was validated using one-year real data from Coto Laurel. The power ramp-rate control methods were compared in real-time simulations using the OP5700 from Opal-RT Technologies considering power ramp rate fluctuations, power ramp-rate violations, fluctuations in the state-of-charge, among other indicators. Moreover, the proposed power ramp-rate control strategy, called predictive dynamic smoothing was explained and compared. Results indicate that the predictive dynamic smoothing produced a considerably reduced Levelized Cost of Storage compared to other power ramp-rate control methods and provided a higher lifetime expectancy for lithium batteries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-informed Predictive Analytics To Achieve Cost-effective Condition-based Monitoring And Maintenance Strategy

The research involves developing risk-informed predictive analytic capabilities to achieve condition-based monitoring and maintenance strategies to reduce overall maintenance costs. The research utilizes data (real-time data, periodic data, and institutional knowledge) related to a particular plant asset from a specific nuclear plant site to develop risk-informed predictive analytic algorithms. The developed algorithms and codes are used to optimize the maintenance strategy and estimate/forecast generation costs based on the state of health of the plant asset. Developed codes specifically include 1. Parameter estimation code based on Bayesian inference 2. Statistical data analysis code 3. Feature engineering code 4. Health classifier code 5. Diagnosis code 6. Prognosis code 7. Hazard code 8. Generation risk code 9. Economic code

Agarwal, Vivek↗
NASA NTRS1978

Feasibility Study of Solar Dome Encapsulation of Photovoltaic Arrays

The technical and economic advantages of using air-supported plastic enclosures to protect flat plate photovoltaic arrays are described. Conceptual designs for a fixed, latitude-tilt array and a fully tracking array were defined. Detailed wind loads and strength analyses were performed for the fixed array. Detailed thermal and power output analyses provided array performance for typical seasonal and extreme temperature conditions. Costs of each design as used in a 200 MWe central power station were defined from manufacturing and material cost estimates. The capital cost and cost of energy for the enclosed fixed-tilt array were lower than for the enclosed tracking array. The enclosed fixed-tilt array capital investment was 38% less, and the levelized bus bar energy cost was 26% less than costs for a conventional, glass-encapsulated array design. The predicted energy cost for the enclosed fixed array was 79 mills/kW-h for direct current delivered to the power conditioning units.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2015

X-1 to X-Wings: Developing a Parametric Cost Model

In todays cost-constrained environment, NASA needs an X-Plane database and parametric cost model that can quickly provide rough order of magnitude predictions of cost from initial concept to first fight of potential X-Plane aircraft. This paper takes a look at the steps taken in developing such a model and reports the results. The challenges encountered in the collection of historical data and recommendations for future database management are discussed. A step-by-step discussion of the development of Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) is then covered.

parametric cost model↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pragmatic Stress Prediction on Additively Manufactured Coupons

Prediction of residual stresses from process parameters for additively manufactured large metal parts is computationally expensive. NASA is currently developing meter-scale parts with direct energy deposition. Practically, the predictive computational methods need to efficiently scale-up to meter-scale parts. Coupled thermal-mechanical multi-physics simulations have been developed with the pragmatic method using ABAQUS, COMSOL Multiphysics, ALE3D software. The residual stresses are a result of the manufacturing process which creates thermal cycling of the build layers. The pragmatic method uses lumped thermal layers for stress predictions to reduce computational costs. The stress predictions as well as deformations of the different codes are compared with each other and with ANSYS Additive using identical material models, boundary and initial conditions. The codes were used to simulate three different geometries: a thin wall, hollow cylinder and twin-cantilever part. The coupon parts were then manufactured with Inconel-625. The residual stresses in these parts were measured using X-ray diffraction as well as neutron beam diffraction at NIST. The stress measurements for the two technologies are compared. The pragmatic stress prediction method enabled predictions of the multi-centimeter scale parts using desktop computer workstations in only a few hours for each coupon. The results of the simulated stress predictions compared favorably with the measured stresses even though thermally lumped layers were employed. Finally, a two-meter scale nozzle was simulated using ANSYS Additive. The simulations were used to examine the build orientation trade-space with respect to resulting geometric deformation. The predicted deformations were compared to measurements of an actual subscale part manufactured with direct energy deposition.

Additive Manufacturing↗