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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

Multidimensional Distributional Neural Network Output Demonstrated in Super‐Resolution of Surface Wind Speed

Accurate quantification of uncertainty in neural network predictions remains a central challenge for scientific applications involving high-dimensional, correlated data. While existing methods capture either aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty, few offer closed-form, multidimensional distributions that preserve spatial correlation while remaining computationally tractable. In this work, we present a framework for training neural networks with a multidimensional Gaussian loss, generating a closed-form predictive distribution over outputs informed by non-identically distributed training data. Our approach captures aleatoric uncertainty by iteratively estimating the means and covariance matrices, and is demonstrated on a super-resolution example out-of-training-sample. We leverage a Fourier representation of the covariance matrix to stabilize network training and preserve spatial correlation. We introduce a novel regularization strategy—referred to as information sharing—that interpolates between image-specific and global covariance estimates, enabling convergence of the super-resolution downscaling network trained on image-specific distributional loss functions. This framework allows for efficient sampling, explicit correlation modeling, and extensions to more complex distribution families all without disrupting prediction performance. We demonstrate the method on a surface wind speed downscaling task and discuss its broader applicability to uncertainty-aware prediction in scientific models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Stochastic process approximation for recursive estimation with guaranteed bound on the error covariance

An approach, is proposed for the design of approximate, fixed order, discrete time realizations of stochastic processes from the output covariance over a finite time interval, was proposed. No restrictive assumptions are imposed on the process; it can be nonstationary and lead to a high dimension realization. Classes of fixed order models are defined, having the joint covariance matrix of the combined vector of the outputs in the interval of definition greater or equal than the process covariance; (the difference matrix is nonnegative definite). The design is achieved by minimizing, in one of those classes, a measure of the approximation between the model and the process evaluated by the trace of the difference of the respective covariance matrices. Models belonging to these classes have the notable property that, under the same measurement system and estimator structure, the output estimation error covariance matrix computed on the model is an upper bound of the corresponding covariance on the real process. An application of the approach is illustrated by the modeling of random meteorological wind profiles from the statistical analysis of historical data.

Menga, G.↗

A bound on the rate-distortion function and application to images.

An upper bound on the rate-distortion function for discrete ergodic sources with memory is developed by partitioning the source sample space into a finite number of disjoint subsets and bounding the rates for each subset. The bound depends only on the mean vectors and covariance matrices for the subsets and is easy to compute. It is tighter than the Gaussian bound for sources that exhibit clustering of either the values or covariances of successive source outputs. The bound is evaluated for a certain class of pictorial data using both one-dimensional and two-dimensional blocks of picture elements. Two-dimensional blocks yield a tighter bound than one-dimensional blocks; both result in a significantly tighter bound than the Gaussian bound.

Tasto, M.↗

Neural network based emulation of galaxy power spectrum covariances: A reanalysis of BOSS DR12 data

We train neural networks to quickly generate redshift-space galaxy power spectrum covariances from a given parameter set (cosmology and galaxy bias). This covariance emulator utilizes a combination of traditional fully connected network layers and transformer architecture to accurately predict covariance matrices for the high redshift, north galactic cap sample of the BOSS DR12 galaxy catalog. We run simulated likelihood analyses with emulated and brute-force computed covariances, and we quantify the network’s performance via two different metrics: (1) difference in Χ 2 and (2) likelihood contours for simulated BOSS DR 12 analyses. We find that the emulator returns excellent results over a large parameter range. We then use our emulator to perform a reanalysis of the BOSS HighZ NGC galaxy power spectrum, and find that varying covariance with cosmology along with the model vector produces Ω m = $0.27⁢6$$^{+0.013}_{–0.015}$, H 0 = 70.2 ± 1.9 km/s/Mpc, and σ 8 = $0.67⁢4$$^{+0.058}_{–0.077}$. These constraints represent an average 0.46⁢σ shift in best-fit values and a 5% increase in constraining power compared to fixing the covariance matrix (Ω m = 0.293 ± 0.017, H 0 = 70.3 ± 2.0 km/s/Mpc, σ 8 = $0.70⁢2$$^{+0.063}_{–0.075}$). As a result, this work demonstrates that emulators for more complex cosmological quantities than second-order statistics can be trained over a wide parameter range at sufficiently high accuracy to be implemented in realistic likelihood analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Realistic Covariance Prediction For the Earth Science Constellations

Routine satellite operations for the Earth Science Constellations (ESC) include collision risk assessment between members of the constellations and other orbiting space objects. One component of the risk assessment process is computing the collision probability between two space objects. The collision probability is computed via Monte Carlo techniques as well as numerically integrating relative probability density functions. Each algorithm takes as inputs state vector and state vector uncertainty information for both objects. The state vector uncertainty information is expressed in terms of a covariance matrix. The collision probability computation is only as good as the inputs. Therefore, to obtain a collision calculation that is a useful decision-making metric, realistic covariance matrices must be used as inputs to the calculation. This paper describes the process used by NASA Goddard's Earth Science Mission Operations Project to generate realistic covariance predictions for three of the ESC satellites: Aqua, Aura, and Terra

Duncan, Matthew↗

Realistic Covariance Prediction for the Earth Science Constellation

Routine satellite operations for the Earth Science Constellation (ESC) include collision risk assessment between members of the constellation and other orbiting space objects. One component of the risk assessment process is computing the collision probability between two space objects. The collision probability is computed using Monte Carlo techniques as well as by numerically integrating relative state probability density functions. Each algorithm takes as inputs state vector and state vector uncertainty information for both objects. The state vector uncertainty information is expressed in terms of a covariance matrix. The collision probability computation is only as good as the inputs. Therefore, to obtain a collision calculation that is a useful decision-making metric, realistic covariance matrices must be used as inputs to the calculation. This paper describes the process used by the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center's Earth Science Mission Operations Project to generate realistic covariance predictions for three of the Earth Science Constellation satellites: Aqua, Aura and Terra.

Duncan, Matthew↗

Upper and lower covariance bounds for perturbed linear systems

Both upper and lower bounds are established for state covariance matrices under parameter perturbations of the plant. The motivation for this study lies in the fact that many robustness properties of linear systems are given explicitly in terms of the state covariance matrix. Moreover, there exists a theory for control by covariance assignment. The results provide robustness properties of these covariance controllers.

Xu, J.-H.↗

Data compression and covariance matrix inspection: Cosmic shear

Covariance matrices are among the most difficult pieces of end-to-end cosmological analyses. In principle, for two-point functions, each component involves a four-point function, and the resulting covariance often has hundreds of thousands of elements. We investigate various compression mechanisms capable of vastly reducing the size of the covariance matrix in the context of cosmic shear statistics. This helps identify which of its parts are most crucial to parameter estimation. We start with simple compression methods, by isolating and “removing” 200 modes associated with the lowest eigenvalues, then those with the lowest signal-to-noise ratio, before moving on to more sophisticated schemes like compression at the tomographic level and, finally, with the massively optimized parameter estimation and data compression (MOPED). We find that, while most of these approaches prove useful for a few parameters of interest, like Ω m , the simplest yield a loss of constraining power on the intrinsic alignment (IA) parameters as well as S 8 . For the case considered—cosmic shear from the first year of data from the Dark Energy Survey—only MOPED was able to replicate the original constraints in the 16-parameter space. Finally, we apply a tolerance test to the elements of the compressed covariance matrix obtained with MOPED and confirm that the IA parameter A IA is the most susceptible to inaccuracies in the covariance matrix.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Binning is Sinning (Supernova Version): The Impact of Self-calibration in Cosmological Analyses with Type Ia Supernovae

Recent cosmological analyses (e.g., JLA, Pantheon) of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have propagated systematic uncertainties into a covariance matrix and either binned or smoothed the systematic uncertainty vectors in redshift space. We demonstrate that systematic error budgets of these analyses can be improved by a factor of ~ 1.5 × with the use of unbinned and unsmoothed covariance matrices. To understand this, we employ a separate approach that simultaneously fits for cosmological parameters and additional self-calibrating scale parameters that constrain the size of each systematic. We show that the covariance-matrix approach and scale-parameter approach indeed yield equivalent results, implying that in both cases the data can self-calibrate certain systematic uncertainties, but that this ability is hindered when information is binned or smoothed in redshift space. We review the top systematic uncertainties in current analyses and find that the reduction of systematic uncertainties in the unbinned case depends on whether a systematic is solely degenerate with the cosmological model in redshift space or whether it can be described by additional correlations between supernova properties and luminosity. Furthermore, we show that the power of self-calibration increases with the size of the data set, which presents a tremendous opportunity for upcoming analyses of photometrically classified samples, like those of Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Nancy Grace Roman Telescope (NGRST). However, to take advantage of self-calibration in large, photometrically classified samples, we must first address the issue that binning is required in currently used photometric analysis methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Three-axis attitude determination from vector observations

Two computationally efficient algorithms are presented for determining three-axis attitude from two or more vector observations. The first of these, the TRIAD algorithm, provides a deterministic (i.e., nonoptimal) solution for the attitude based on two vector observations. The second, the QUEST algorithm, is an optimal algorithm which determines the attitude that achieves the best weighted overlap of an arbitrary number of reference and observation vectors. Analytical expressions are given for the covariance matrices for the two algorithms using a fairly realistic model for the measurement errors. The mathematical relationship of the two algorithms and their relative merits are discussed and numerical examples are given. The advantage of computing the covariance matrix in the body frame rather than in the inertial frame (e.g., in terms of Euler angles) is emphasized. These results are valuable when a single-frame attitude must be computed frequently. They will also be useful to the mission analyst or spacecraft engineer for the evaluation of launch-window constraints or of attitude accuracies for different attitude sensor configurations.

Shuster, M. D.↗

ATTITUDE FILTERING ON SO(3)

A new method is presented for the simultaneous estimation of the attitude of a spacecraft and an N-vector of bias parameters. This method uses a probability distribution function defined on the Cartesian product of SO(3), the group of rotation matrices, and the Euclidean space W N .The Fokker-Planck equation propagates the probability distribution function between measurements, and Bayes s formula incorporates measurement update information. This approach avoids all the issues of singular attitude representations or singular covariance matrices encountered in extended Kalman filters. In addition, the filter has a consistent initialization for a completely unknown initial attitude, owing to the fact that SO(3) is a compact space.

Markley, F. Landis↗

NOvA Inclusive Nue CC Cross Section Data Release

NOvA inclusive electron neutrino cross section results presented at Neutrino2020Exposure:8.09E20 protons-on-target, neutrino-enhanced beamData release contains 3 ROOT files containing the double-differential measurement with respect to electron angle (cos theta) and electron energy, a single-differential measurement with respect to squared four-momentum transfer (Q2), and the total cross section as a function of neutrino energy. The 1D cross-section measurements include the same kinematic phase space restrictions present in the double-differential analysis.The files, xsec_{dThdE/Enu/dQ2}.root, contain the extracted cross section and associated covariance matrices for the double-differential cross section with respect to the observed electron kinematics, dThdE, neutrino energy, Enu, and squared four-momentum transfer, Q^2.In each file there will be the following histograms:— TH2D/TH1D xsec: unfolded measured cross section— TH2D xsec_cov: cross section covariance matrix— TH2D stat_cov: statistical covariance matrixIncludes text files, xsec_{dThdE/Enu/dQ2}.txt show the corresponding histograms in plain text format.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for the Weighted Least Squares Estimation Method

State estimation techniques effectively provide mean state estimates. However, the theoretical state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques often suffer from a lack of confidence in their ability to describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. By a reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares algorithm, it is possible to directly arrive at an empirical state error covariance matrix. This proposed empirical state error covariance matrix will contain the effect of all error sources, known or not. Results based on the proposed technique will be presented for a simple, two observer, measurement error only problem.

Joseph Henry Frisbee↗

Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for Batch Estimation

State estimation techniques effectively provide mean state estimates. However, the theoretical state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques often suffer from a lack of confidence in their ability to describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. By a reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted batch least squares algorithm, it is possible to directly arrive at an empirical state error covariance matrix. The proposed empirical state error covariance matrix will contain the effect of all error sources, known or not. This empirical error covariance matrix may be calculated as a side computation for each unique batch solution. Results based on the proposed technique will be presented for a simple, two observer and measurement error only problem.

Frisbee, Joe↗

Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for Batch Estimation

State estimation techniques effectively provide mean state estimates. However, the theoretical state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques often suffer from a lack of confidence in their abilities to describe the true uncertainty in the estimated states. By a reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares algorithm, it is possible to directly arrive at an empirical state error covariance matrix. This proposed empirical state error covariance matrix will contain the effect of all error sources, known or unknown. Results are presented for a simple, two observer, measurement error only problem.

Estimation↗

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for the Weighted Least Squares Estimation Method

State estimation techniques effectively provide mean state estimates. However, the theoretical state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques often suffer from a lack of confidence in their ability to describe the un-certainty in the estimated states. By a reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares algorithm, it is possible to directly arrive at an empirical state error covariance matrix. This proposed empirical state error covariance matrix will contain the effect of all error sources, known or not. Results based on the proposed technique will be presented for a simple, two observer, measurement error only problem.

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗

Polarimetric clutter modeling: Theory and application

The two-layer anisotropic random medium model is used to investigate fully polarimetric scattering properties of earth terrain media. The polarization covariance matrices for the untilted and tilted uniaxial random medium are evaluated using the strong fluctuation theory and distorted Born approximation. In order to account for the azimuthal randomness in the growth direction of leaves in tree and grass fields, an averaging scheme over the azimuthal direction is also applied. It is found that characteristics of terrain clutter can be identified through the analysis of each element of the covariance matrix. Theoretical results are illustrated by the comparison with experimental data provided by MIT Lincoln Laboratory for tree and grass fields.

Kong, J. A.↗

An efficient algorithm for estimating noise covariances in distributed systems

An efficient computational algorithm for estimating the noise covariance matrices of large linear discrete stochatic-dynamic systems is presented. Such systems arise typically by discretizing distributed-parameter systems, and their size renders computational efficiency a major consideration. The proposed adaptive filtering algorithm is based on the ideas of Belanger, and is algebraically equivalent to his algorithm. The earlier algorithm, however, has computational complexity proportional to p to the 6th, where p is the number of observations of the system state, while the new algorithm has complexity proportional to only p-cubed. Further, the formulation of noise covariance estimation as a secondary filter, analogous to state estimation as a primary filter, suggests several generalizations of the earlier algorithm. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated for a distributed system arising in numerical weather prediction.

Dee, D. P.↗