Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Covariance operator estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

FC Site 4.0 - NLR Thermodynamic profiler (ASSIST II-11) Thermodynamic Retrievals TROPoe

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe v0.19 (Turner and Löhnert 2014; Turner and Blumberg 2019; Turner and Löhnert 2021). The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous observations from the NLR ASSIST II infrared spectrometer. Observations are noise-filtered but not averaged in time to minimize errors due to non-uniform clouds. Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height (CBH) from co-located scanning lidar. The full pipeline for running the retrieval is available at https://github.com/StefanoWind/TROPoe_processor. Met data was not ingested. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al. 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches in Denver, CO.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NREL ASSIST Rhode Island / Thermodynamic retrievals TROPoe

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe (Turner and Löhnert 2014; Turner and Blumberg 2019; Turner and Löhnert 2021). The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous observations from the NREL ASSIST-II (SN 11) infrared spectrometer. Observations are noise-filtered but not averaged in time to minimize errors due to non-uniform clouds. Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height from a collocated NREL Upgraded Galion lidar #1212-60 and temperature, RH, and pressure from collocated PNNL met station. The lidar beta is used to estimate the cloud base height through a modified algorithm by Newsom et al., 2019 used at ARM SGP. The full pipeline for running the retrieval is available at https://github.com/StefanoWind/TROPoe_processor. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) which provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see e.g. Djalalova et al. 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches at Upton, NY.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Measured and Modeled Vineyard Canopy Development and Water Use

Two publicly available applications relevant to vineyard irrigation management are described. OpenET is a satellite-based system that applies an ensemble of remote sensing methods to enable wide-area monitoring of evapotranspiration (ET) and related measures such as vegetation canopy development (via the NDVI spectral index). Data are freely available at one-quarter acre spatial resolution, and may be automatically aggregated to the individual block level. The satellite-based daily ET data were compared with in-situ eddy covariance measurements collected by micro-meteorological instrumentation in a Central Coast vineyard over a three-year period (2020-2022). Estimation uncertainties were reasonably consistent with prior reports for GRAPEX sites in the Central Valley and North Coast. The CropManage (CM) web application is a free software tool developed and operated U.C. Cooperative Extension for ET-based irrigation scheduling of major specialty crops. CM provides specific guidance for irrigation events in terms of irrigation system runtime. Applied water recommendations are based largely on estimated ET, derived from assumed canopy cover and associated crop coefficients, since the last irrigation or rainfall event. The application was recently adapted to vineyards by accounting for presence of winter/spring cover crop, and vine water stress imposed by regulated deficit irrigation. A 2022 field campaign involved 12 Central Coast and San Joaquin Valley commercial vineyards, and OpenET data were used to help evaluate CM output. Maximum percent vine cover was compared to estimates derived from average July satellite NDVI. The difference for 10 sites lacking midseason groundcover ranged from 0-7% between datasets with average agreement near 4%. Cumulative ET estimates agreed with OpenET to within 12% at the majority of sites, while larger discrepancies at the remaining sites may require additional data collection and analysis during the 2023 season. Satellite based systems such as OpenET have the potential to help parameterize CropManage and similar agricultural decision-support systems.

Measured↗

Adaptive Sampling of Spatiotemporal Phenomena with Optimization Criteria

This work was designed to find a way to optimally (or near optimally) sample spatiotemporal phenomena based on limited sensing capability, and to create a model that can be run to estimate uncertainties, as well as to estimate covariances. The goal was to maximize (or minimize) some function of the overall uncertainty. The uncertainties and covariances were modeled presuming a parametric distribution, and then the model was used to approximate the overall information gain, and consequently, the objective function from each potential sense. These candidate sensings were then crosschecked against operation costs and feasibility. Consequently, an operations plan was derived that combined both operational constraints/costs and sensing gain. Probabilistic modeling was used to perform an approximate inversion of the model, which enabled calculation of sensing gains, and subsequent combination with operational costs. This incorporation of operations models to assess cost and feasibility for specific classes of vehicles is unique.

Chien, Steve A.↗

Evaluating the feasibility of using downwind methods to quantify point source oil and gas emissions using continuously monitoring fence-line sensors

The dependable reporting of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from point sources, such as fugitive leaks from oil and gas infrastructure, is important for profit maximization (retaining more hydrocarbons), evaluating climate impacts, assessing CH 4 fees for regulatory programs, and validating CH 4 intensity in differentiated gas programs. Currently, there are disagreements between emissions reported by different quantification techniques for the same sources. It has been suggested that downwind CH 4 quantification methods using CH 4 measurements on the fence line of production facilities could be used to generate emission estimates from oil and gas operations at the site level, but it is currently unclear how accurate the quantified emissions are. To investigate the accuracy of downwind methods, this study uses fence-line simulated data collected during controlled-release experiments as input for a non-standard closed-path eddy covariance (EC), the Gaussian plume inverse model (GPIM), and the backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLs) model in a range of atmospheric conditions. This study's EC attempt was unsuccessful due to data collection and instrumentation issues, resulting in invalid results characterized by underestimated emissions, large negative fluxes, and cospectra/ogives that deviated from their ideal shapes. Consequently, the EC results could not be compared with the GPIM and bLS model. The bLs model demonstrated the highest accuracy for single-release single-point emissions, though it exhibited greater uncertainty than GPIM under multi-release conditions. Across the GPIM and bLs model, the most reliable quantification was achieved with 15 min averaging and a narrow 5° wind sector range. Although EC was limited in this context, future studies should consider employing a standard EC system and further optimizing GPIM and bLs approaches – particularly for complex multi-source scenarios – to enhance quantification accuracy and reduce uncertainty.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Diurnal and Seasonal Solar Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence and Photosynthesis in a Boreal Scots Pine Canopy

Solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence has been shown to be increasingly an useful proxy for the estimation of gross primary productivity (GPP), at a range of spatial scales. Here, we explore the seasonality in a continuous time series of canopy solar induced fluorescence (hereafter SiF) and its relation to canopy gross primary production (GPP), canopy light use efficiency (LUE), and direct estimates of leaf level photochemical efficiency in an evergreen canopy. SiF was calculated using infilling in two bands from the incoming and reflected radiance using a pair of Ocean Optics USB2000+ spectrometers operated in a dual field of view mode, sampling at a 30 min time step using custom written automated software, from early spring through until autumn in 2011. The optical system was mounted on a tower of 18 m height adjacent to an eddy covariance system, to observe a boreal forest ecosystem dominated by Scots pine. (Pinus sylvestris) A Walz MONITORING-PAM, multi fluorimeter system, was simultaneously mounted within the canopy adjacent to the footprint sampled by the optical system. Following correction of the SiF data for O2 and structural effects, SiF, SiF yield, LUE, the photochemicsl reflectance index (PRI), and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) exhibited a seasonal pattern that followed GPP sampled by the eddy covariance system. Due to the complexities of solar azimuth and zenith angle (SZA) over the season on the SiF signal, correlations between SiF, SiF yield, GPP, and LUE were assessed on SZA <50° and under strictly clear sky conditions. Correlations found, even under these screened scenarios, resulted around ~r2 = 0.3. The diurnal responses of SiF, SiF yield, PAM estimates of effective quantum yield (ΔF/Fm′), and meteorological parameters demonstrated some agreement over the diurnal cycle. The challenges inherent in SiF retrievals in boreal evergreen ecosystems are discussed.

photosynthetic↗

Combining Multiple Gyroscope Outputs for Increased Accuracy

A proposed method of processing the outputs of multiple gyroscopes to increase the accuracy of rate (that is, angular-velocity) readings has been developed theoretically and demonstrated by computer simulation. Although the method is applicable, in principle, to any gyroscopes, it is intended especially for application to gyroscopes that are parts of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS). The method is based on the concept that the collective performance of multiple, relatively inexpensive, nominally identical devices can be better than that of one of the devices considered by itself. The method would make it possible to synthesize the readings of a single, more accurate gyroscope (a virtual gyroscope) from the outputs of a large number of microscopic gyroscopes fabricated together on a single MEMS chip. The big advantage would be that the combination of the MEMS gyroscope array and the processing circuitry needed to implement the method would be smaller, lighter in weight, and less power-hungry, relative to a conventional gyroscope of equal accuracy. The method (see figure) is one of combining and filtering the digitized outputs of multiple gyroscopes to obtain minimum-variance estimates of rate. In the combining-and-filtering operations, measurement data from the gyroscopes would be weighted and smoothed with respect to each other according to the gain matrix of a minimum- variance filter. According to Kalman-filter theory, the gain matrix of the minimum-variance filter is uniquely specified by the filter covariance, which propagates according to a matrix Riccati equation. The present method incorporates an exact analytical solution of this equation.

Bayard, David S.↗

Observations of the Geometry of Horizon-Based Optical Navigation

NASA's Orion Project has sparked a renewed interest in horizon-based optical navigation(OPNAV) techniques for spacecraft in the Earth-Moon system. Some approaches have begun to explore the geometry of horizon-based OPNAV and exploit the fact that it is a conic section problem. Therefore, the present paper focuses more deeply on understanding and leveraging the various geometric interpretations of horizon-based OPNAV. These results provide valuable insight into the fundamental workings of OPNAV solution methods, their convergence properties, and associated estimate covariance. Most importantly, the geometry and transformations uncovered in this paper lead to a simple and non-iterative solution to the generic horizon-based OPNAV problem. This represents a significant theoretical advancement over existing methods. Thus, we find that a clear understanding of geometric relationships is central to the prudent design, use, and operation of horizon-based OPNAV techniques.

Christian, John↗

An evaluation of Galileo-Viking differenced range in Galileo-Mars flyby navigation

A summary and evaluation of the Galileo-Mars flyby navigation techniques is presented. The navigational requirements of Galileo as it swings by Mars are going to be met with interferometric angular measurements (VLBI) and range and range-rate measurements. Like VLBI, dual spacecraft differenced range is less sensitive to Mars ephemeris errors and tracking station location errors than conventional range and Doppler. Similarly, differenced range provides angular information about the separation between the Mars Viking Lander I and the Galileo spacecraft. In covariance studies, dual spacecraft range coupled with conventional range and Doppler is shown to estimate the Galileo-Mars flyby distance to better than 10 km which is comparable to the VLBI performance. For the Galileo-Mars flyby, dual spacecraft differenced range promise to be an excellent backup to VLBI if the Mars Viking Lander remains operational.

Winn, F. B.↗

Stable and verifiable state estimation methods and systems with spacecraft applications

The stability of a recursive estimator process (e.g., a Kalman filter is assured for long time periods by periodically resetting an error covariance P(t.sub.n) of the system to a predetermined reset value P.sub.r. The recursive process is thus repetitively forced to start from a selected covariance and continue for a time period that is short compared to the system's total operational time period. The time period in which the process must maintain its numerical stability is significantly reduced as is the demand on the system's numerical stability. The process stability for an extended operational time period T.sub.o is verified by performing the resetting step at the end of at least one reset time period T.sub.r whose duration is less than the operational time period T.sub.o and then confirming stability of the process over the reset time period T.sub.r. Because the recursive process starts from a selected covariance at the beginning of each reset time period T.sub.r, confirming stability of the process over at least one reset time period substantially confirms stability over the longer operational time period T.sub.o.

Li, Rongsheng↗

Uncertainty Modeling for Structural Control Analysis and Synthesis

The development of an accurate model of uncertainties for the control of structures that undergo a change in operational environment, based solely on modeling and experimentation in the original environment is studied. The application used throughout this work is the development of an on-orbit uncertainty model based on ground modeling and experimentation. A ground based uncertainty model consisting of mean errors and bounds on critical structural parameters is developed. The uncertainty model is created using multiple data sets to observe all relevant uncertainties in the system. The Discrete Extended Kalman Filter is used as an identification/parameter estimation method for each data set, in addition to providing a covariance matrix which aids in the development of the uncertainty model. Once ground based modal uncertainties have been developed, they are localized to specific degrees of freedom in the form of mass and stiffness uncertainties. Two techniques are presented: a matrix method which develops the mass and stiffness uncertainties in a mathematical manner; and a sensitivity method which assumes a form for the mass and stiffness uncertainties in macroelements and scaling factors. This form allows the derivation of mass and stiffness uncertainties in a more physical manner. The mass and stiffness uncertainties of the ground based system are then mapped onto the on-orbit system, and projected to create an analogous on-orbit uncertainty model in the form of mean errors and bounds on critical parameters. The Middeck Active Control Experiment is introduced as experimental verification for the localization and projection methods developed. In addition, closed loop results from on-orbit operations of the experiment verify the use of the uncertainty model for control analysis and synthesis in space.

Campbell, Mark E.↗

Geoscience Laser Ranging System - Estimated accuracy of geodetic parameters and their dependence on system characteristics

Covariance analysis of the performance of the Geoscience Laser Ranging System (GLRS) indicates that three-dimensional relative positions can be recovered to an accuracy of several millimeters over spatial scales from a few kilometers to several hundred kilometers and over temporal scales as short as several days. The key factors influencing the accuracy are range noise, number of targets and their locations, system pointing capability, dwell time on the targets, orbital geometry, and gravity field uncertainties. Based on the present trade-off studies, GLRS is designed to provide range measurements with 10 mm or better accuracy, fire at a rate of 40 pulses-per-second, point over a cone extending to 50 deg from nadir, and operate with a dwell time on individual targets of 2 s or less. Given a strain rate of 10 to the -14th/s, estimated GLRS accuracy parameters suggest that the deformation can be detected in less than a month if it extends over 100 km and in less than 6 months if it extends over 10 km.

Cohen, Steven C.↗

Towards real-time monitoring: data assimilated time-lapse full waveform inversion for seismic velocity and uncertainty estimation

SUMMARY Rapid development of time-lapse seismic monitoring instrumentations has made it possible to collect dense time-lapse data for tomographically retrieving time-lapse (even continuous) images of subsurface changes. While traditional time-lapse full waveform inversion (TLFWI) algorithms are designed for sparse time-lapse surveys, they lack of effective temporal constraint on time-lapse data, and, more importantly, lack of the uncertainty estimation of the TLFWI results that is critical for further interpretation. Here, we propose a new data assimilation TLFWI method, using hierarchical matrix powered extended Kalman filter (HiEKF) to quantify the image uncertainty. Compared to existing Kalman filter algorithms, HiEKF allows to store and update a data-sparse representation of the cross-covariance matrices and propagate model errors without expensive operations involving covariance matrices. Hence, HiEKF is computationally efficient and applicable to 3-D TLFWI problems. Then, we reformulate TLFWI in the framework of HiEKF (termed hereafter as TLFWI-HiEKF) to predict time-lapse images of subsurface spatiotemporal velocity changes and simultaneously quantify the uncertainty of the inverted velocity changes over time. We demonstrate the validity and applicability of TLFWI–HiEKF with two realistic CO2 monitoring models derived from Frio-II and Cranfield CO2 injection sites, respectively. In both 2-D and 3-D examples, the inverted high-resolution time-lapse velocity results clearly reveal a continuous velocity reduction due to the injection of CO2. Moreover, the accuracy of the model is increasing over time by assimilating more time-lapse data while the standard deviation is decreasing over lapsed time. We expect TLFWI-HiEKF to be equipped with real-time seismic monitoring systems for continuously imaging the distribution of subsurface gas and fluids in the future large-scale CO2 sequestration experiments and reservoir management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

TDRSS-user orbit determination using batch least-squares and sequential methods

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) commissioned Applied Technology Associates, Incorporated, to develop the Real-Time Orbit Determination/Enhanced (RTOD/E) system on a Disk Operating System (DOS)-based personal computer (PC) as a prototype system for sequential orbit determination of spacecraft. This paper presents the results of a study to compare the orbit determination accuracy for a Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) user spacecraft, Landsat-4, obtained using RTOD/E, operating on a PC, with the accuracy of an established batch least-squares system, the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS), and operating on a mainframe computer. The results of Landsat-4 orbit determination will provide useful experience for the Earth Observing System (EOS) series of satellites. The Landsat-4 ephemerides were estimated for the January 17-23, 1991, timeframe, during which intensive TDRSS tracking data for Landsat-4 were available. Independent assessments were made of the consistencies (overlap comparisons for the batch case and covariances and the first measurement residuals for the sequential case) of solutions produced by the batch and sequential methods. The forward-filtered RTOD/E orbit solutions were compared with the definitive GTDS orbit solutions for Landsat-4; the solution differences were less than 40 meters after the filter had reached steady state.

Oza, D. H.↗

A Sulfur Dioxide Covariance-Based Retrieval Algorithm (COBRA): Application to TROPOMI Reveals New Emission Sources

Sensitive and accurate detection of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) from space is important for monitoring and estimating global sulfur emissions. Inspired by detection methods applied in the thermal infrared, we present here a new scheme to retrieve SO 2 columns from satellite observations of ultraviolet back-scattered radiances. The retrieval is based on a measurement error covariance matrix to fully represent the SO 2 -free radiance variability, so that the SO 2 slant column density is the only retrieved parameter of the algorithm. We demonstrate this approach, named COBRA, on measurements from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) aboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S-5P) satellite. We show that the method reduces significantly both the noise and biases present in the current TROPOMI operational DOAS SO 2 retrievals. The performance of this technique is also benchmarked against that of the Principal Component Algorithm (PCA) approach. We find that the quality of the data is similar and even slightly better with the proposed COBRA approach. The ability of the algorithm to retrieve SO 2 accurately is also further supported by comparison with ground-based observations. We illustrate the great sensitivity of the method with a high-resolution global SO 2 map, considering two and a half years of TROPOMI data. In addition to the known sources, we detect many new SO 2 emission hotspots worldwide. For the largest sources, we use the COBRA data to estimate SO 2 emission rates. Results are comparable to other recently published TROPOMI-based SO 2 emissions estimates, but the associated uncertainties are significantly lower than with the operational data. Next, for a limited number of weak sources, we demonstrate the potential of our data for quantifying SO 2 emissions with a detection limit of about 8 kt yr -1 , a factor of 4 better than the emissions derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). We anticipate that the systematic use of our TROPOMI COBRA SO 2 column data set at a global scale will allow identifying and quantifying missing sources, and help improving SO 2 emission inventories.

SO2↗

Bilinear modeling and nonlinear estimation

New methods are illustrated for online nonlinear estimation applied to the lateral deflection of an elastic beam on board measurements of angular rates and angular accelerations. The development of the filter equations, together with practical issues of their numerical solution as developed from global linearization by nonlinear output injection are contrasted with the usual method of the extended Kalman filter (EKF). It is shown how nonlinear estimation due to gyroscopic coupling can be implemented as an adaptive covariance filter using off-the-shelf Kalman filter algorithms. The effect of the global linearization by nonlinear output injection is to introduce a change of coordinates in which only the process noise covariance is to be updated in online implementation. This is in contrast to the computational approach which arises in EKF methods arising by local linearization with respect to the current conditional mean. Processing refinements for nonlinear estimation based on optimal, nonlinear interpolation between observations are also highlighted. In these methods the extrapolation of the process dynamics between measurement updates is obtained by replacing a transition matrix with an operator spline that is optimized off-line from responses to selected test inputs.

Dwyer, Thomas A. W., III↗

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Reverse Osmosis (RO) are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in (ultra-filtration) UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) metric. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent covariates across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is studied for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches across increasing forecast horizons. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing RO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks by accurately estimating membrane fouling trends, thereby enhancing process efficiency and long-term reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗

The GEOS Ozone Data Assimilation System: Specification of Error Statistics

A global three-dimensional ozone data assimilation system has been developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total ozone and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) or (SBUV/2) partial ozone profile observations are assimilated. The assimilation, into an off-line ozone transport model, is done using the global Physical-space Statistical Analysis Scheme (PSAS). This system became operational in December 1999. A detailed description of the statistical analysis scheme, and in particular, the forecast and observation error covariance models is given. A new global anisotropic horizontal forecast error correlation model accounts for a varying distribution of observations with latitude. Correlations are largest in the zonal direction in the tropics where data is sparse. Forecast error variance model is proportional to the ozone field. The forecast error covariance parameters were determined by maximum likelihood estimation. The error covariance models are validated using x squared statistics. The analyzed ozone fields in the winter 1992 are validated against independent observations from ozone sondes and HALOE. There is better than 10% agreement between mean Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and analysis fields between 70 and 0.2 hPa. The global root-mean-square (RMS) difference between TOMS observed and forecast values is less than 4%. The global RMS difference between SBUV observed and analyzed ozone between 50 and 3 hPa is less than 15%.

Stajner, Ivanka↗