Results for “Crop yield” — Page 4

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterizing the Impact of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles on GNSS Accuracy for Crop Yield Estimation in Brazil with NASA GOLD Data

In Brazil, equatorial plasma bubbles are the primary space weather phenomenon impacting the performance of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), causing signal disruptions and positional inaccuracies in agricultural machinery used for mapping fields, guiding machinery, and ensuring accurate planting, spraying, and harvesting. As a result, farmers and stakeholders face challenges in maintaining accurate operational capabilities, often needing to shut down machinery to mitigate these effects. This project evaluated the feasibility of using NASA’s Heliophysics observations for a case study in March 2024. Data from NASA's Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) instrument were used to characterize equatorial plasma bubbles, while amplitude and phase indices from ground-based GNSS receivers confirmed their presence and impact on signal disruptions. Additionally, data from a local farm's rover receiver assessed the practical implications of these disruptions on Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) GNSS-based operations by calculating the 2-dimensional error. The project involved collaboration across multiple different organizations and sectors, including NASA’s Crustal Dynamics Data Information System (CDDIS) researchers, John Deere, a Brazilian farm for data acquisition, and Brazilian universities for data interpretation. The results aim to inform Brazilian farmers about position errors affecting their precision agriculture operations and provide insights into the needs of space weather data users and modeling. Lessons from this case study will guide future integration of space weather data and modeling with end users.

Melissa Marquez↗

DOE OSTI2020

Influence of Vegetation Canopy Architecture on Dynamics of Spatiotemporal Light Distribution and its Effect on Land-Biosphere-Atmosphere Fluxes of Energy, Carbon, and Water

The dynamic spatiotemporal distribution of light and micro climatic variables (wind speed, atmospheric CO 2 concentration, humidity, pressure, and air temperature) within the plant canopy as determined by the canopy architecture play a critical role in land-biosphere-atmosphere (LBA) photosynthetic carbon uptake, transpiratory water loss and energy partitioning. Vegetation models that include effects of sun and shade flecks, leaf temperature and energy balance partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes, and reduced turbulent mixing in dense vegetation canopies can accurately predict canopy performance, particularly its shaded leaves, which can constitute 80% of leaf area and contribute up to 50% of carbon update and 65% of water loss. However, current vegetation models with their bulk characterization of shaded leaves poorly represent the complex three dimensional (3D) canopy architecture are insufficient to capture the spatiotemporal dynamics of shaded leaves. Here, we propose to employ an x-ray computed tomography (XCT) imaging technique in combination with an automated, high throughput, image processing pipeline (3DArch, to be developed) to obtain an explicit 3D triangulated surface mesh of a plant canopy (Fig 1). 3DArch would provide a much needed technological jump in 3D LBA modeling where computer generated artificial 3D models suffer from lack of high resolution detailed canopy architecture parameters. The 3D canopy surface mesh output from 3DArch is coupled with an explicit 3D forward ray tracing model (fastTracer) to obtain a high resolution representation of the dynamic spatiotemporal light environment within the canopy over the course of a day (Fig 1). The results from the light attenuation model are then coupled with a process based multi-scale bio-physical canopy and leaf model of photosynthesis (PlantGro) to get fluxes of carbon, water and energy at the leaf and canopy scale, in addition to estimating whole plant carbon uptake, and water loss. Our proposed model framework would be the first of its kind to provide a breakthrough capability in the field of process-based plant modeling that bridges the key technological gap in shaded leaf modeling through explicit representation of 3D canopy architecture. Computer generated artificial 3D model canopy simulations on grasses show that the canopy light distribution does not follow an exponential behavior as assumed in most 1D vegetation models, but rather exhibits a heterogeneous behavior, with a small but significant portion of interior canopy leaves experiencing peak light levels due to sun flecks while the rest of the canopy receives substantially lower light levels. These results indicate a bias in traditional models that overestimates shaded leaf contribution towards whole canopy photosynthesis by up to 15% and underestimate transpiration by up to 12% with an associated increase in sensible heat fluxes since photosynthesis, transpiration and energy partitioning are tightly coupled processes. However, these test results need to be validated using the 3D architecture obtained from a real plant imaged in 3D using 3DArch, rather than an artificial model plant. Our proposed model framework would allow us to identify inefficiencies in canopy light distribution and prescribe optimal canopy architectures (leaf optical properties, leaf area, leaf angles, row spacing, planting density, etc.) to traditional and genetic engineering based crop breeders, for maximizing target functions such as light use efficiency, water use efficiency, drought tolerance, crop yield, crop resilience etc., with important applications in biofuel crops such as sorghum, and switchgrass. Our model can also be applied for designing optimal canopy architecture that increase surface albedo as a mitigation strategy for global warming and projections of crop yield for future food and water security under climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Impacts of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the Global Yields of Major Crops

The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often affects seasonal temperature and precipitation, and thus crop yields in many regions, the overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are uncertain. Here we present a global map of the impacts of ENSO on the yields of major crops and quantify its impacts on their global-mean yield anomalies. Results show that El Nino likely improves the global-mean soybean yield by 2.15.4 but appears to change the yields of maize, rice and wheat by -4.3 to +0.8. The global-mean yields of all four crops during La Nina years tend to be below normal (-4.5 to 0.0).Our findings highlight the importance of ENSO to global crop production.

Crops↗

DOE OSTI2021

Considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections

Crop yields are sensitive to extreme weather events. Improving the understanding of the mechanisms and the drivers of the projection uncertainties can help to improve decisions. Previous studies have provided important insights, but often sample only a small subset of potentially important uncertainties. Here we expand on a previous statistical modeling approach by refining the analyses of two uncertainty sources. Specifically, we assess the effects of uncertainties surrounding crop-yield model parameters and climate forcings on projected crop yield. We focus on maize yield projections in the eastern U.S.in this century. We quantify how considering more uncertainties expands the lower tail of yield projections. We characterized the relative importance of each uncertainty source and show that the uncertainty surrounding yield model parameters is the main driver of yield projection uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Supporting Information - How Can Crop Production Adapt to growing groundwater restrictions in the West?

Abstract This data plan outlines the structure and content of datasets generated and utilized in the research presented in the manuscript abstract. Groundwater overdraft has led to serious water supply issues in the US West. Most western states manage groundwater use through a permitting system, but California has only recently begun to restrict groundwater use statewide with the 2014 passage of groundwater restrictions which target the elimination of groundwater overdraft practices by 2042. With groundwater extraction curtailed, crop production in the US West (a $95 billion industry annually) will be affected, and appropriate response strategies will be needed to ensure minimal disruption to food production and the regional economy. In this paper, we explore the adoption of alternative adaptive responses: (a) deficit irrigation; (b) switching to less water-intensive crops; (c) changing the extent of irrigated land (including fallowing); and (d) geographically shifting crop production. Employing an integrated modeling approach, we explicitly capture the interactions and feedbacks between local hydrology, changes in crop yields, crop and land use decision-making, changes in crop prices, and regional shifts in crop production. We find that the optimal adaptive response is spatially heterogeneous and comprises a portfolio of strategies. Southwestern states and California will be the most impacted by groundwater restrictions. The optimal responses in these states are to both adopt deficit irrigation strategies and reduce a portion of their irrigated croplands, resulting in a shift in crop production to northwestern states with a larger supply of water. The datasets detailed in this repository represent the output from these integrated models, specifically designed to support the analysis and visualization presented in the manuscript and supplemental information. These datasets, used in conjunction with the scripts available at our associated GitHub repository (https://github.com/pches/Femeena_etal_How_can_crop_production_adapt), enable the reproduction of figures and facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the optimal adaptive strategies in agriculture for mitigating water stress under varying groundwater extraction scenarios, as outlined in the abstract.

DNDCe↗

DOE OSTI2025

Supporting Information - How Can Crop Production Adapt to growing groundwater restrictions in the West?

Abstract This data plan outlines the structure and content of datasets generated and utilized in the research presented in the manuscript abstract. Groundwater overdraft has led to serious water supply issues in the US West. Most western states manage groundwater use through a permitting system, but California has only recently begun to restrict groundwater use statewide with the 2014 passage of groundwater restrictions which target the elimination of groundwater overdraft practices by 2042. With groundwater extraction curtailed, crop production in the US West (a $95 billion industry annually) will be affected, and appropriate response strategies will be needed to ensure minimal disruption to food production and the regional economy. In this paper, we explore the adoption of alternative adaptive responses: (a) deficit irrigation; (b) switching to less water-intensive crops; (c) changing the extent of irrigated land (including fallowing); and (d) geographically shifting crop production. Employing an integrated modeling approach, we explicitly capture the interactions and feedbacks between local hydrology, changes in crop yields, crop and land use decision-making, changes in crop prices, and regional shifts in crop production. We find that the optimal adaptive response is spatially heterogeneous and comprises a portfolio of strategies. Southwestern states and California will be the most impacted by groundwater restrictions. The optimal responses in these states are to both adopt deficit irrigation strategies and reduce a portion of their irrigated croplands, resulting in a shift in crop production to northwestern states with a larger supply of water. The datasets detailed in this repository represent the output from these integrated models, specifically designed to support the analysis and visualization presented in the manuscript and supplemental information. These datasets, used in conjunction with the scripts available at our associated GitHub repository (https://github.com/pches/Femeena_etal_How_can_crop_production_adapt), enable the reproduction of figures and facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the optimal adaptive strategies in agriculture for mitigating water stress under varying groundwater extraction scenarios, as outlined in the abstract.

DNDCe↗

DOE OSTI2025

Supporting Information - How Can Crop Production Adapt to growing groundwater restrictions in the West?

Abstract This data plan outlines the structure and content of datasets generated and utilized in the research presented in the manuscript abstract. Groundwater overdraft has led to serious water supply issues in the US West. Most western states manage groundwater use through a permitting system, but California has only recently begun to restrict groundwater use statewide with the 2014 passage of groundwater restrictions which target the elimination of groundwater overdraft practices by 2042. With groundwater extraction curtailed, crop production in the US West (a $95 billion industry annually) will be affected, and appropriate response strategies will be needed to ensure minimal disruption to food production and the regional economy. In this paper, we explore the adoption of alternative adaptive responses: (a) deficit irrigation; (b) switching to less water-intensive crops; (c) changing the extent of irrigated land (including fallowing); and (d) geographically shifting crop production. Employing an integrated modeling approach, we explicitly capture the interactions and feedbacks between local hydrology, changes in crop yields, crop and land use decision-making, changes in crop prices, and regional shifts in crop production. We find that the optimal adaptive response is spatially heterogeneous and comprises a portfolio of strategies. Southwestern states and California will be the most impacted by groundwater restrictions. The optimal responses in these states are to both adopt deficit irrigation strategies and reduce a portion of their irrigated croplands, resulting in a shift in crop production to northwestern states with a larger supply of water. The datasets detailed in this repository represent the output from these integrated models, specifically designed to support the analysis and visualization presented in the manuscript and supplemental information. These datasets, used in conjunction with the scripts available at our associated GitHub repository (https://github.com/pches/Femeena_etal_How_can_crop_production_adapt), enable the reproduction of figures and facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the optimal adaptive strategies in agriculture for mitigating water stress under varying groundwater extraction scenarios, as outlined in the abstract.

DNDCe↗

DOE OSTI2022

CO 2 fertilization of crops offsets yield losses due to future surface ozone damage and climate change

Tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) is harmful to plant productivity and negatively impacts crop yields. O3 concentrations are projected to decrease globally in the optimistic Representative Concentration Pathway of 2.6 W m –2 (RCP2.6) but increase globally following the high-emission scenario under the RCP8.5, with substantial implications for global food security. The damaging effect of O 3 on future crop yield is affected by CO 2 fertilization and climate change, and their interactions for RCP scenarios have yet to be quantified. In this study, we used the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) to quantify the impacts, and relative importance of present-day and future O3, CO 2 concentration and meteorology on crop production at the regional scale until 2100 following RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We focus on eight major crop-producing regions that cover the production of wheat, soybean, maize, and rice. Our results show that CO 2 alone has the largest effect on regional yields, followed by climate and O 3 . However, the CO 2 fertilization effect is offset by the negative impact of tropospheric O 3 in regions with high O 3 concentrations, such as South Asia and China. Simulated crop yields in 2050 were compared with Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) statistics to investigate the differences between a socioeconomic and a biophysical process-based approach. Results showed that FAO estimates are closer to our JULES-crop RCP8.5 scenario. This study demonstrates that air pollution could be the biggest threat to future food production and highlights an urgent policy need to mitigate the threat of climate change and O 3 pollution on food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1989

A center for commercial development of space: Real-time satellite mapping. Remote sensing-based agricultural information expert system

The research project results in a powerful yet user friendly CROPCAST expert system for use by a client to determine the crop yield production of a certain crop field. The study is based on the facts that heuristic assessment and decision making in agriculture are significant and dominate much of agribusiness. Transfer of the expert knowledge concerning remote sensing based crop yield production into a specific expert system is the key program in this study. A knowledge base consisting of a root frame, CROP-YIELD-FORECAST, and four subframes, namely, SATELLITE, PLANT-PHYSIOLOGY, GROUND, and MODEL were developed to accommodate the production rules obtained from the domain expert. The expert system shell Personal Consultant Plus version 4.0. was used for this purpose. An external geographic program was integrated to the system. This project is the first part of a completely built expert system. The study reveals that much effort was given to the development of the rules. Such effort is inevitable if workable, efficient, and accurate rules are desired. Furthermore, abundant help statements and graphics were included. Internal and external display routines add to the visual capability of the system. The work results in a useful tool for the client for making decisions on crop yield production.

Hadipriono, Fabian C.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

Many studies have been carried out during the last decade to study the effect of climate change on crop yields and other key crop characteristics. In these studies, one or several crop models were used to simulate crop growth and development for different climate scenarios that correspond to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and rainfall changes (Semenov et al., 1996; Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; White et al., 2011). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013) builds on these studies with the goal of using an ensemble of multiple crop models in order to assess effects of climate change scenarios for several crops in contrasting environments. These studies generate large datasets, including thousands of simulated crop yield data. They include series of yield values obtained by combining several crop models with different climate scenarios that are defined by several climatic variables (temperature, CO2, rainfall, etc.). Such datasets potentially provide useful information on the possible effects of different climate change scenarios on crop yields. However, it is sometimes difficult to analyze these datasets and to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexity; simulated yield data can differ among contrasting climate scenarios, sites, and crop models. Another issue is that it is not straightforward to extrapolate the results obtained for the scenarios to alternative climate change scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Additional dynamic crop model simulations for new climate change scenarios are an option but this approach is costly, especially when a large number of crop models are used to generate the simulated data, as in AgMIP. Statistical models have been used to analyze responses of measured yield data to climate variables in past studies (Lobell et al., 2011), but the use of a statistical model to analyze yields simulated by complex process-based crop models is a rather new idea. We demonstrate herewith that statistical methods can play an important role in analyzing simulated yield data sets obtained from the ensembles of process-based crop models. Formal statistical analysis is helpful to estimate the effects of different climatic variables on yield, and to describe the between-model variability of these effects.

climate↗

NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing Based Yield Monitoring: Application to Winter Wheat in United States and Ukraine

Accurate and timely crop yield forecasts are critical for making informed agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Earth observation data from space can contribute to agricultural monitoring, including crop yield assessment and forecasting. In this study, we present a new crop yield model based on the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data at 1 km resolution and the un-mixing of DVI at coarse resolution to a pure wheat signal (100% of wheat within the pixel). The model was applied to estimate the national and subnational winter wheat yield in the United States and Ukraine from 2001 to 2017. The model at the subnational level shows very good performance for both countries with a coefficient of determination higher than 0.7 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of lower than 0.6 t/ha (15–18%). At the national level for the United States (US) and Ukraine the model provides a strong coefficient of determination of 0.81 and 0.86, respectively, which demonstrates good performance at this scale. The model was also able to capture low winter wheat yields during years with extreme weather events, for example 2002 in US and 2003 in Ukraine. The RMSE of the model for the US at the national scale is 0.11 t/ha (3.7%) while for Ukraine it is 0.27 t/ha (8.4%).

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2020

The GGCMI Phase 2 Experiment: Global Gridded Crop Model Simulations Under Uniform Changes in CO2, Temperature, Water, and Nitrogen Levels (Protocol Version 1.0)

Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Process-based crop models, which represent plant physiological and soil processes, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate and management conditions not sampled in the historical record and new locations to which cultivation may shift. However, process-based crop models differ in many critical details, and their responses to different interacting factors remain only poorly understood. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment, an activity of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to provide a systematic parameter sweep focused on climate change factors and their interaction with overall soil fertility, to allow both evaluating model behavior and emulating model responses in impact assessment tools. In this paper we describe the GGCMI Phase 2 experimental protocol and its simulation data archive. A total of 12 crop models simulate five crops with systematic uniform perturbations of historical climate, varying CO2, temperature, water supply, and applied nitrogen (“CTWN”) for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, and a second set of simulations represents a type of adaptation by allowing the adjustment of growing season length. We present some crop yield results to illustrate general characteristics of the simulations and potential uses of the GGCMI Phase 2 archive. For example, in cases without adaptation, modeled yields show robust decreases to warmer temperatures in almost all regions, with a nonlinear dependence that means yields in warmer baseline locations have greater temperature sensitivity. Inter-model uncertainty is qualitatively similar across all the four input dimensions but is largest in high-latitude regions where crops may be grown in the future.

GGCMI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Biomass Resources and Emission Reduction Potential of Agricultural and Livestock Residues in Mainland China from 2013 to 2022

Controlling carbon emissions is a global goal, and China is actively implementing carbon reduction measures. As a major agricultural nation, China has considerable potential for developing agricultural residues as renewable and environmentally friendly biomass energy. In this study, we obtained data on crop yields, crop-to-grain ratios, and livestock excretion coefficients to calculate the biomass resources of agricultural and livestock residues in Chinese provinces from 2013 to 2022. Crop residue biomass resources showed a distribution pattern with higher levels in the north than in the south and the east than in the west. Henan and Heilongjiang provinces consistently had the highest resource levels, exceeding 35 million tons annually for 10 years. The biomass resources from livestock residues were relatively abundant in Sichuan, Henan, Yunnan, Shandong, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia. Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Shandong, and Henan had the greatest potential for CO2 emission reductions, primarily located in regions abundant in biomass resources and with high traditional energy consumption levels. ArcGIS was used to apply natural break classification to categorize the potential for emission reductions from agricultural and livestock residues across China from 2013 to 2022 into five classes. Based on factors such as crop planting area and livestock numbers, the spatiotemporal distribution of factors influencing the quantity of biomass resources was examined using Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression. A tailored and integrated approach should be used for biomass, and the development of biomass energy should be promoted through policy support and technological innovation.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

NASA NTRS2023

Climate Variability and Simultaneous Breadbasket Yield Shocks as Observed in Long-Term Yield Records

That climate variability and change can potentially force multiple simultaneous breadbasket crop yield shocks has been established. But research quantifying the mechanisms behind such simultaneous shocks has been constrained by short records of crop yields. Here we compile a dataset of subnational crop yields in 25 countries dating back to 1900 to study the frequency and trends in multiple breadbasket yield shocks and how large-scale climate anomalies on interannual timescales have affected multiple breadbasket yield shocks over the last century. We find that major simultaneous breadbasket yield shocks have occurred in at least three, four, or five of nine breadbaskets 10.3%, 2.3% and 1.1% of the time for maize and 18.4%, 4.6% and 2.3% of the time for wheat. Furthermore, we find that multiple breadbasket yield shocks decreased in frequency even as those breadbaskets experience increasingly frequent climate-related shocks. For both maize and wheat breadbaskets, there were fewer simultaneous yield shocks during the 1975–2017 time period as compared to 1931–1975. Finally, we find that interannual modes of climate variability - such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - have all affected the relative probability of simultaneous yield shocks in pairs of breadbaskets by up to 20–40% in both maize and wheat breadbaskets. While past literature has focused on the effects of ENSO, we find that at the global scale the NAO affects the overall number of wheat yield shocks most strongly despite only affecting northern hemisphere breadbaskets.

agriculture↗

NASA NTRS2021

Argentina Food Security & Agriculture: Crop Monitoring and Forecasting for Argentina using NASA Satellite Observations

Early harvest information helps guide agricultural commodity assessments in Argentina, providing valuable planning information to identify potentially food-insecure regions, anticipate transportation and storage demands, predict price fluctuations, and project commodity trends. However, crop yield estimates are currently subjective, based on interviews with qualified informants (i.e., farmers, agribusiness actors). In partnership with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, we leveraged Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), and Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) NASA Earth observations to develop a Google Earth Engine (GEE) toolset to monitor vegetation growth. The first component of the toolset produces spatial and temporal maps of temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), allowing users to visualize the influence of the region’s climate and weather. Next, we developed an autoregressive model to predict NDVI several months in advance. Lastly, we created a linear regression model of crop yield and NDVI for soybeans, corn, and wheat, and input the forecasted NDVI to generate a predicted crop yield output. The NDVI forecasting model produced accurate predictions at two, four, and six months when examining the most recent growing season. In the crop yield model, soybeans exhibited moderately strong correlation, wheat had consistent weak correlation, and corn varied from weak to strong correlation depending on zone. This information is vital for vegetation growth monitoring by identifying areas of high growth and allocating resources to areas of lower growth to efficiently maximize crop yields.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗

DOE OSTI2020

Global Market and Economic Welfare Implications of Changes in Agricultural Yields Due to Climate Change

The economic welfare effects of climate change on global agriculture will be mediated by several complex biophysical and economic processes. For a given emissions scenario, these include: (1) the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing, (2) the response of crop yields to climate system and carbon dioxide changes, given baseline improvements in crop yields, (3) the response of agricultural markets to crop yield changes, and (4) the economic welfare implications of such market responses. In this paper, we use information about the first two processes from available climate-crop model comparison studies to analyze implications for the third and fourth processes. Applying the range of crop yield changes in a Global Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM) highlights several important economic relationships. First, we find a consistent relationship between global cropland area and yield change that is approximately orthogonal to the relationship between regional cropland area and yield change. Second, we find that the change in economic welfare, expressed as total surplus change per unit economic output, peaks during the 21st century. Third, we find that, at the global level, changes in yield affect both producer surplus and consumer surplus. Specifically, surplus changes to producers and consumers are always opposite in sign, although which economic actors gain or lose varies with the sign of yield change for any given commodity. Taken together, these results contribute to a growing body of research on climate-induced changes on agriculture by highlighting several economic relationships that are robust to differences in the underlying biophysical responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Review: The Next Steps in Crop Improvement: Adoption of Emerging Strategies to Identify Bottlenecks in Sugar Flux

We report sugar allocation in plants is the fundamental process that transports sugar from source to sink tissues and has a dramatic impact on crop yields. Controlling sugar allocation is required to increase crop yields, as well as biomass for biofuel production. Successful examples have demonstrated that genetic engineering of sugar partitioning offers a promising strategy to achieve this goal. However, improvement has thus far been limited by gaps in understanding of the underlying mechanisms controlling the allocation of sugars. The dynamics of sugar partitioning are minimally predictable under different conditions, between species, or in response to abiotic stresses. Here, we discuss four methodologies that have not been sufficiently exploited for the identification of bottlenecks in sugar flux. Furthermore, we suggest how these strategies can be used and combined to provide the insight needed to maximize crop yields or biomass, especially under conditions of environmental stress.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing Based Yield Monitoring: Application to Winter Wheat in United States and Ukraine

Accurate and timely crop yield forecasts are critical for making informed agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Earth observation data from space can contribute to agricultural monitoring, including crop yield assessment and forecasting. In this study, we present a new crop yield model based on the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data at 1 km resolution and the un-mixing of DVI at coarse resolution to a pure wheat signal (100 percent of wheat within the pixel). The model was applied to estimate the national and subnational winter wheat yield in the United States and Ukraine from 2001 to 2017. The model at the subnational level shows very good performance for both countries with a coefficient of determination higher than 0.7 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of lower than 0.6 t/ha (tonnes per hectare) (15-18 percent). At the national level for the United States (US) and Ukraine the model provides a strong coefficient of determination of 0.81 and 0.86, respectively, which demonstrates good performance at this scale. The model was also able to capture low winter wheat yields during years with extreme weather events, for example 2002 in US and 2003 in Ukraine. The RMSE of the model for the US at the national scale is 0.11 t/ha (3.7 percent) while for Ukraine it is 0.27 t/ha (8.4 percent).

DVI↗