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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Adaptive Volt-VAR to Mitigate PV Impacts [Slides]

Distributed generation (DG) sources like photovoltaic (PV) systems with advanced inverters are able to perform grid-support functions, like autonomous Volt-VAR that attempts to mitigate voltage issues by injecting or consuming reactive power. However, the Volt-VAR function operates with VAR priority, meaning real power may be curtailed to provide additional reactive power support. Since some locations on the grid may be more prone to higher voltages than others, PV systems installed at those locations may be forced to curtail more power, adversely impacting the value of that PV system. Adaptive Volt-VAR (AVV) could be implemented as an alternative, whereby the Volt-VAR reference voltage changes over time, but this functionality has not been well-explored in the literature. In this work, the potential benefits and grid impacts of AVV were investigated using yearlong quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulations. After testing a variety of allowable AVV settings, we found that even with aggressive settings AVV resulted in <0.01% real power curtailment and significantly reduced the reactive power support required from the PV inverter compared to conventional Volt-VAR but did not provide much mitigation for extreme voltage conditions. The reactive power support provided by AVV was injected to oppose large deviations in voltage (in either direction), indicating that it could be useful for other applications like reducing voltage flicker or minimizing interactions with other voltage regulating devices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Potential Availability of and Supply Curves for Low-Cost, Dispatch-Constrained Electricity

Among other changes, variable renewable energy (VRE) - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - is achieving a growing share of total generation. High VRE penetrations may result in an increased level of curtailment and thus suppress the value of additional VRE. This VRE, that either would not be built due to price suppression or would be curtailed, can be considered a resource that we define as low-cost, dispatch-constrained electricity (LDE). LDE could be used for various applications which value low-cost electricity and can operate at reduced capacity factors. Examples include electrolytic hydrogen production and carbon capture. This report provides initial estimates of the quantity and availability of the potential LDE resource in the U.S. under scenarios with high VRE penetrations. It also provides supply curves that can be used in subsequent analysis of the opportunity to use the LDE. We modeled several scenarios using capacity expansion and production cost models for LDE prices ranging from $\$ $0/MWh to $\$ $30/MWh. These LDE prices, coupled with low renewable energy cost assumptions, resulted in VRE penetrations ranging from 48-66% in 2050. The resulting LDE supplies range from 100 - 300 TWh/yr at a price of $\$ $0/MWh to 3,500 - 4,200 TWh/yr at $\$ $30/MWh. Increasing LDE prices increases wind and photovoltaics deployment; however, other generation technology capacities do not decrease equivalently in our models. Thus, additional generation is available but the capacity of traditional dispatchable generation is only reduced slightly. The available LDE is concentrated in the central and southwest U.S. regions because of their high wind and solar resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal Sizing of Movable Energy Resources for Enhanced Resilience in Distribution Systems: A Techno-Economic Analysis

This article introduces a techno-economic analysis aimed at identifying the optimal total size of movable energy resources (MERs) to enhance the resilience of electric power supply. The core focus of this approach is to determine the total size of MERs required within the distribution network to expedite restoration after extreme events. Leveraging distribution line fragility curves, the proposed methodology generates numerous line outage scenarios, with scenario reduction techniques employed to minimize computational burden. For each reduced multiple line outage scenario, a systematic reconfiguration of the distribution network, represented as a graph, is executed using tie-switches within the system. To evaluate each locational combination of MERs for a specific number of these resources, the expected load curtailment (ELC) is calculated by summing the load curtailment within microgrids formed due to multiple line outages. This process is repeated for all possible locational combinations of MERs to determine minimal ELC for each MER total size. For every MER total size, the minimal ELCs are determined. Finally, a techno-economic analysis is performed using power outage cost and investment cost of MERs to pinpoint an optimal total size of MERs for the distribution system. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, case studies are conducted on the 33-node and the modified IEEE 123-node distribution test systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Recent developments in catalyst-related PEM fuel cell durability

Cost and durability remain the two major barriers to the widespread commercialization of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell (PEMFC)-based power systems, especially for the most impactful but challenging fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) application. Commercial FCEVs are now on the road; however, their PEMFC systems do not meet the cost targets established by the U.S. Department of Energy, primarily due to the high platinum loading needed on the cathode to achieve the requisite performance and lifetime. Furthermore, while the activities of a number of commercial Pt-based alloy cathode catalysts exceed the beginning-of-life (BOL) targets, these activities, and the overall cathode performance, degrade via a variety of mechanisms described herein. Degradation is mitigated in current FCEVs by utilizing a cathode catalyst with a lower BOL activity (e.g., much lower transition metal alloy content and larger BOL nanoparticle size), necessitating higher catalyst loadings, and through the utilization of system controls that avoid conditions known to exacerbate degradation processes, such as limiting the fuel cell stack voltage range. The design and development of active and robust materials and eliminating the need for vehicle mitigation strategies would greatly simplify the operating system, allowing for greater transient operation, avoiding large hybridization, and curtailing of fuel cell power. Although system mitigation strategies have provided the near-term pathway for FCEV commercialization, material-specific solutions are required to further reduce costs and improve operability and efficiency. Future material developments should focus on stabilization of the electrode structure and minimization of the catalyst particle susceptibility to dissolution caused by oxide formation and reduction over PEMFC cathode-relevant operating potentials plus minimization of support corrosion. Ex situ accelerated stress tests have provided insight into the processes responsible for material and performance degradation and will continue to provide useful information on the relative stability of materials and benchmarks for robust and stable materials-based solutions not requiring system mitigation strategies to achieve adequate lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Deep Reductions in Energy Storage Costs on Highly Reliable Wind and Solar Electricity Systems.

We use 36 years (1980-2015) of hourly weather data over the contiguous United States (CONUS) to assess the impact of low-cost energy storage on highly reliable electricity systems that use only variable renewable energy (VRE; wind and solar photovoltaics). Even assuming perfect transmission of wind and solar generation aggregated over CONUS, energy storage costs would need to decrease several hundred-fold from current costs (to ~$1/kWh) in fully VRE electricity systems to yield highly reliable electricity without extensive curtailment of VRE generation. The role of energy storage changes from high-cost storage competing with curtailment to fill short-term gaps between VRE generation and hourly demand to near-free storage serving as seasonal storage for VRE resources. Energy storage faces "double penalties" in VRE/storage systems: with increasing capacity, (1) the additional storage is used less frequently and (2) hourly electricity costs would become less volatile, thus reducing price arbitrage opportunities for the additional storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Getting brighter: Impacts of improved day-ahead solar forecasts in high-solar, high-storage electricity systems

This paper analyzes the impacts of improved day-ahead solar forecasts on costs and dispatch in the solar-rich Southeast U.S. It uses an optimized high-solar, high-storage resource portfolio in which solar generation capacity accounts for 45 % of total installed capacity (34 %–36 % of generation) and energy storage capacity (43 GW) is equivalent to 33 % of peak demand. In a base scenario, improved day-ahead solar forecasts reduce production costs by $\$87$ million per year ($\$0.13$ per MWh load, $2023$$). This level of savings is within the range or lower than earlier studies of solar forecast improvements at lower levels of solar generation (<25 % of total generation). In this study, solar expansion was accompanied by two important sources of flexibility for managing solar forecast error: energy storage and day-ahead solar curtailment. Furthermore, the analysis finds that regional coordination complements day-ahead solar forecast improvements while natural gas commitment flexibility is a substitute for forecast improvements, as the improved solar forecast leads to sub-optimal commitment of thermal units. Day-ahead solar forecast improvements reduce reserves required to manage forecast error by 30 %. Fewer reserves to manage large, infrequent solar forecast errors could be an important benefit of improved solar forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.

Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal energy storage portfolio for high and ultrahigh carbon-free and renewable power systems

Achieving 100% carbon-free or renewable power systems can be facilitated by the deployment of energy storage technologies at all timescales, including short-duration, long-duration, and seasonal scales; however, most current literature focuses on cost assessments of energy storage for a given timescale or type of technology. In this work, we use an optimization framework with high spatial and temporal resolution to simultaneously assess the variable renewable power deployment and the optimal storage portfolio for seven independent system operators in the United States. Results indicate that achieving high (75–90%) and ultrahigh (>90%) energy mixes requires combining several flexibility options, including renewable curtailment, short-duration, long-duration, and seasonal storage. For instance, carbon-free and renewable energy mix targets of up to 80% are achieved with economic curtailment and a combination of short- and long-duration energy storage for the performance and cost assumptions used. After that, there is a point between 80% and 95% where seasonal storage becomes cost-competitive, depending on the specific power system. Moreover, our results indicate that storage-to-storage operation—one storage device used to charge another storage device—and the decoupling of charging and discharging storage power capacity are cost-effective options for the integration of high and ultrahigh shares of carbon-free or renewable power sources. Additionally, the results from this study show that an 85% carbon-free or renewable energy mix can be achieved at a cost of avoided CO 2 emissions of US$66.0 per tonne or less, regardless of the power system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Defensive Islanding to Enhance the Resilience of Distribution Systems Against Cyber-Induced Failures

The extensive integration of communication, computation, and control technologies into cyber-physical power systems (CPPSs) has increased the vulnerabilities of CPPSs to cyberattacks. This calls for developing solutions that assess and reduce the impacts of cyber-induced failures on CPPSs. This paper proposes a defensive islanding strategy to isolate impacted parts of the CPPS and form self-sufficient islanded grids with an objective of minimum load curtailment. The defensive islanding aims to split a power system into smaller grids to improve its resilience against a potential extreme event. A clustering approach that leverages the hierarchical spectral clustering method is utilized for the optimal defensive islanding. The proposed approach captures the fragility behavior and loading conditions of power system components due to cyber-induced failures. A graphical-based coupling framework is used to map the impacts of cyber failures into operation of power system components. The proposed method is demonstrated on a modified 33-node distribution feeder system integrated with distributed energy resources. The amount of load curtailment and radiality constraints have been used to evaluate the performance of the proposed clustering strategies. The results show the capability of the proposed algorithm to create islands considering the cyber-induced failures for enhanced resilience.

cyber-induced failures↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Distribution System Coordinated PV Inverter Control Using Deep Reinforcement Learning

The deployment of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems has increased consistently over the past decades. High penetrations of PVs could cause a series of adverse grid impacts, such as voltage violations. The recent development of smart inverter technologies rises the incentives of developing PV control solutions that regulate the inverter output power and seeking the optimization on system operational objectives. This paper proposes a data-driven control solution based on deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to optimize PV inverters for voltage regulation. The proposed solution can minimize PV real power curtailment while maintaining network voltage at an acceptable range. Comparison results between the proposed DRL control algorithms with deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG) and volt-var control on a real feeder in west Colorado highlight the advantage of the proposed framework in controlling the system voltage while minimizing the PV real power curtailment.

deep reinforcement learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

EV Forecasting-Based Model Predictive Control for Distribution System Congestion Mitigation

The uncoordinated charging of electric vehicles (EVs) in time and space brings congestion issues to the distribution network. This paper proposes an EV charging demand forecasting-based model predictive control (MPC) method for distribution system congestion management. To effectively forecast the time-series EV station charging demand, a hybrid forecasting model that integrates the long short-term memory network (LSTM) and Transformer is proposed. The Transformer-LSTM model is trained using a one-year real historical charging dataset of EV stations to forecast future charging demand in 15-minute intervals. This informs the MPC for distribution network congestion management and minimization of PV curtailment. Numerical results carried out on the modified IEEE 123-bus distribution system demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively resolve line congestion issues through EV smart charging and PV curtailment while outperforming other benchmarks.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unsafe at Any Clock Speed: The Insecurity of Computer System Design, Implementation, and Operation

It appears that there are enormous differences of opinion as to the probability of a [system failure]. The higher figures come from the working engineers, and the very low figures from management. When playing Russian roulette the fact that the first shot got off safely is little comfort for the next. [T]here have been recent suggestions by management to curtail elaborate and expensive tests as being unnecessary. However, this must be resisted. The proper way to save money is to curtail the number of requested changes, not the quality of testing for each.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable Predictive Control and Optimization for Grid Integration of Large-Scale Distributed Energy Resources

Integrating a large number of distributed energy resources (DERs) into the power grid needs a scalable power balancing method. We formulate the power balancing problem as a look-ahead optimization problem to be solved sequentially by a power distribution system aggregator based on a model predictive control (MPC) framework. Solving large-scale look-ahead control problems requires proper configuration of the control steps. In this paper, to solve large-scale control problems, we propose a variable time granularity where control time steps nearby the current control step have finer resolutions. The aggregator objective includes maximization of power production revenue and minimization of power purchasing expense, renewable power curtailment, and mileage costs for energy storage and electric vehicle (EV) charging stations while satisfying system capacity and operational constraints. The control problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) and solved using the XpressMP solver. We perform simulations considering a copper plate representation of a large distribution network consisting of 2507 devices (control-lable DERs), including curtailable photovoltaics (PVs), energy storage batteries, EV charging stations, and buildings with heating, ventilation, and air conditioning units (HVACs). We show the effectiveness of the proposed approach in managing DERs interactively for maximum energy trading profit and local supply-demand power balancing. Finally, we demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms other benchmark controllers regarding computation time without compromising operational performance.

DER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning for Realistic Distribution System Voltage Control Using PV Inverters

Over the last few decades, the deployment of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems has increased consistently. High PV penetration could cause adverse effects on the grid, such as voltage violations. This paper proposes a new distributed soft actor-critic based multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (SAC-MADRL) control solution to minimize the PV real power curtailment while keeping the grid voltage in an acceptable range. New reward functions have been designed to coordinate different agents during the learning process, yielding improved convergence. Comparison results with other control methods on a real feeder in western Colorado U.S. with 80% penetration of PVs demonstrate that the proposed method has better capability of effectively regulating voltage while minimizing the PV real power curtailment.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Framework to Deconstruct the Primary Drivers for Electricity Market Price Events

As the electricity grid is moving towards a 100% Renewable Energy Source Bulk Power Grid, the overall operations of the power system operations and electricity markets are changing. The electricity markets are not only dispatching resources economically but also taking into account various controllable actions like renewable curtailment, transmission congestion mitigation, and energy storage optimization to make sure the grid is operating reliably. As a result, price formations in electricity markets have become quite complex. Traditional root cause analysis and statistical approaches are rendered inapplicable to analyze and infer the main drivers behind price formation in the modern grid and markets with variable renewable energy (VRE). In this paper, we propose a machine learning analysis framework to deconstruct some primary drivers for price formation in modern electricity markets with high renewable energy and the outcomes can be utilized for various critical aspects of market design, renewable dispatch and curtailment, operations, and cyber-security applications. The framework can be applied to any ISO or market data and in this paper it is applied to open-source publicly available datasets from California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and ISO New England.

machine learning (ML), electricity markets, Renewa↗
DOE OSTI2022

Post-Disaster Microgrid Formation for Enhanced Distribution System Resilience

This paper proposes a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based approach for post-disaster critical load restoration in active distribution systems to form microgrids through network reconfiguration to minimize critical load curtailments. Distribution networks are represented as graph networks, and optimal network configurations with microgrids are obtained by searching for the optimal spanning forest. The constraints to the research question being explored are the radial topology and power balance. Unlike existing analytical and population-based approaches, which necessitate the repetition of entire analyses and computation for each outage scenario to find the optimal spanning forest, the proposed approach, once properly trained, can quickly determine the optimal, or near-optimal, spanning forest even when outage scenarios change. When multiple lines fail in the system, the proposed approach forms microgrids with distributed energy resources in active distribution systems to reduce critical load curtailment. The proposed DRL-based model learns the action-value function using the REINFORCE algorithm, which is a model-free reinforcement learning technique based on stochastic policy gradients. A case study was conducted on a 33-node distribution test system, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed approach for post-disaster critical load restoration.

active distribution systems↗