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At least 73 records · Page 4

Global models predict clouds at the wrong time of day: Does it matter for radiation and climate?

Accurate prediction of future climate change hinges upon the ability of Earth system models (ESMs) to simulate clouds and their radiative effects. Even if an ESM can simulate the correct clouds, a systematic error in the amount of sunlight reflected by clouds (and, thus, cloud radiative effect) can exist if the clouds are simulated at the incorrect time of day. In this work, we develop an analytical model connecting diurnal cloud biases to emergent mean state radiative biases. With the use of satellite observations, we demonstrate that there are errors in the time of day that clouds are occurring in ESMs that would cause bias in shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) that is greater than 45% of the total SWCRE bias, but such errors in the cloud diurnal cycle are masked by other compensating errors, indicating that these ESMs are getting the right answer for the wrong reasons.

Geosciences↗

Mid-day photomixotrophy by Roseiflexus spp. and implications for the 13 C content of hot spring cyanobacterial mats

Microbial mats inhabiting extreme environments have been studied as modern analogs of stromatolites. Mats in Octopus Spring and Mushroom Spring, Yellowstone National Park, are predominated by unicellular photoautotrophic cyanobacteria (Synechococcus spp.), which are thought to cross-feed filamentous photoheterotrophic bacteria (mainly Roseiflexus spp.), except under early morning anoxic conditions when Roseiflexus spp. have been shown to fix dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Transcription patterns, however, suggest that Roseiflexus spp. may perform photomixotrophy, in which DIC is incorporated together with organic compounds during the daytime. We investigated the roles played by Synechococcus spp. and Roseiflexus spp. in DIC and organic matter uptake in mid-day light and oxic mats. Mass spectrometry was used to show that 13 C-bicarbonate uptake under infrared (IR) light (utilized by anoxygenic phototrophs) or visible-minus-blue light (V-B) (used by cyanobacteria) was about two-thirds and one-third, respectively, of that incorporated in full light. Laser-ablation mass spectrometry analysis demonstrated that 13 C incorporation under V-B light was restricted to the uppermost portion of the mat, whereas 13 C incorporation under IR light was maximal in deeper mat layers. 13 C-acetate, -propionate, -lactate, and -glycolate were incorporated to an equal or greater extent under IR and full light. Incorporation of 13 C into peptides showed that both Synechococcus spp. and Roseiflexus spp. were active in DIC uptake, whereas Roseiflexus spp. exhibited greater uptake of 13 C-organic acids, especially glycolate and lactate, into peptides. Peptides of proteins of the 3-hydroxypropionate pathway were labeled. Thus, Roseiflexus spp. appears to exhibit photomixotrophy throughout the day.

Roseiflexus↗

Inner Engineering Practices and Advanced 4-day Isha Yoga Retreat Are Associated with Cannabimimetic Effects with Increased Endocannabinoids and Short-Term and Sustained Improvement in Mental Health: A Prospective Observational Study of Meditators

Anxiety and depression are common in the modern world, and there is growing demand for alternative therapies such as meditation. Meditation can decrease perceived stress and increase general well-being, although the physiological mechanism is not well-characterized. Endocannabinoids (eCBs), lipid mediators associated with enhanced mood and reduced anxiety/depression, have not been previously studied as biomarkers of meditation effects. Our aim was to assess biomarkers (eCBs and brain-derived neurotrophic factor [BDNF]) and psychological parameters after a meditation retreat. Methods. This was an observational pilot study of adults before and after the 4-day Isha Yoga Bhava Spandana Program retreat. Participants completed online surveys (before and after retreat, and 1 month later) to assess anxiety, depression, focus, well-being, and happiness through validated psychological scales. Voluntary blood sampling for biomarker studies was done before and within a day after the retreat. The biomarkers anandamide, 2-arachidonoylglycerol (2-AG), 1-arachidonoylglycerol (1-AG), docosatetraenoylethanolamide (DEA), oleoylethanolamide (OLA), and BDNF were evaluated. Primary outcomes were changes in psychological scales, as well as changes in eCBs and BDNF. Results. Depression and anxiety scores decreased while focus, happiness, and positive well-being scores increased immediately after retreat from their baseline values (P < 0.001). All improvements were sustained 1 month after BSP. All major eCBs including anandamide, 2-AG, 1-AG, DEA, and BDNF increased after meditation by > 70% (P < 0.001). Increases of ≥20% in anandamide, 2-AG, 1-AG, and total AG levels after meditation from the baseline had weak correlations with changes in happiness and well-being. Conclusions. A short meditation experience improved focus, happiness, and positive well-being and reduced depression and anxiety in participants for at least 1 month. Participants had increased blood eCBs and BDNF, suggesting a role for these biomarkers in the underlying mechanism of meditation. Meditation is a simple, organic, and effective way to improve well-being and reduce depression and anxiety.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Development and validation of a 30-day mortality index based on pre-existing medical administrative data from 13,323 COVID-19 patients: The Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (VACO) Index

Background Available COVID-19 mortality indices are limited to acute inpatient data. Using nationwide medical administrative data available prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection from the US Veterans Health Administration (VA), we developed the VA COVID-19 (VACO) 30-day mortality index and validated the index in two independent, prospective samples. Methods and findings We reviewed SARS-CoV-2 testing results within the VA between February 8 and August 18, 2020. The sample was split into a development cohort (test positive between March 2 and April 15, 2020), an early validation cohort (test positive between April 16 and May 18, 2020), and a late validation cohort (test positive between May 19 and July 19, 2020). Our logistic regression model in the development cohort considered demographics (age, sex, race/ethnicity), and pre-existing medical conditions and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) derived from ICD-10 diagnosis codes. Weights were fixed to create the VACO Index that was then validated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) in the early and late validation cohorts and among important validation cohort subgroups defined by sex, race/ethnicity, and geographic region. We also evaluated calibration curves and the range of predictions generated within age categories. 13,323 individuals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (median age: 63 years; 91% male; 42% non-Hispanic Black). We observed 480/3,681 (13%) deaths in development, 253/2,151 (12%) deaths in the early validation cohort, and 403/7,491 (5%) deaths in the late validation cohort. Age, multimorbidity described with CCI, and a history of myocardial infarction or peripheral vascular disease were independently associated with mortality–no other individual comorbid diagnosis provided additional information. The VACO Index discriminated mortality in development (AUC = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.77–0.81), and in early (AUC = 0.81 95% CI: 0.78–0.83) and late (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78–0.86) validation. The VACO Index allows personalized estimates of 30-day mortality after COVID-19 infection. For example, among those aged 60–64 years, overall mortality was estimated at 9% (95% CI: 6–11%). The Index further discriminated risk in this age stratum from 4% (95% CI: 3–7%) to 21% (95% CI: 12–31%), depending on sex and comorbid disease. Conclusion Prior to infection, demographics and comorbid conditions can discriminate COVID-19 mortality risk overall and within age strata. The VACO Index reproducibly identified individuals at substantial risk of COVID-19 mortality who might consider continuing social distancing, despite relaxed state and local guidelines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Data and code for Daily and Multi-Day Extreme Rainfall Analysis Under Future Climates Using Stochastic Storm Transposition and NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Over CONUS

This data package provides inputs, codes, and outputs for a comprehensive analysis of projected changes in extreme precipitation across 10 regions of the continental United States, using 34 downscaled Earth System Models (ESMs) from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset. These models are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), a coordinated climate modeling framework widely used to assess climate change impacts. The analysis applies a stochastic storm transposition method to quantify changes in extreme rainfall under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios—SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions)—compared to historical conditions (1995–2014 vs. 2081–2100). The dataset includes rainfall depth estimates for extreme events with return periods from 2 to 500 years across multiple storm durations (1, 3, and 5 days) for each of the 10 U.S. regions. Weighted ensemble statistics are derived from individual ESM performance against historical precipitation patterns, enabling robust uncertainty quantification through both sign-based and permutation-test-based model agreement assessments. Key analyses address: (1) relative changes in extreme precipitation for each climate scenario, (2) differences between SSP scenarios (SSP5-8.5 vs. SSP2-4.5), (3) contrasts between rare and frequent events, and (4) variations between multi-day and daily storm durations. The workflow produces ensemble statistics—median, 5th, 25th, 75th, and 95th percentiles—along with model agreement metrics that identify regions and event types with robust climate change signals. The dataset includes: processed rainfall depth outputs (netCDF format) from the RainyDay Python package, ESM weights from historical performance evaluation using DayMet observations, ensemble statistics across all storm dimensions, and figures summarizing key findings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE Data Days (Q4 FY2021 Report)

During the FY21Q4 the DOE Data Days (D3) leftover funds from D3 2020 were rolled-over to a new project task and project lead was transferred from Stan Ruppert to Rebecca Rodd. This project will be a continuation of previous DOE Data Day Conferences that were funded through the EOS project. The following are high-level accomplishments: Wrote a draft life-cycle plan for FY22 project for continuation of D3, Sought feedback from previous D3 committees to begin selection of FY22 planning committee, and Project management transitioned from Stan Ruppert to Rebecca Rodd in anticipation of Stan’s retirement at the end of FY21.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Heliostats with Adjustable Shape for High Concentration throughout the Day

Our motivation is to develop more efficient heliostats that can provide commercially viable solar thermal power at temperatures > 800°C. Such high temperatures will enable high-temperature industrial processes, as well as electrical generation after sunset with high efficiency. The importance of this research is that such heliostats have the potential to substantially expand the global use of solar energy, by adding solar thermal power as a major component. Thermal solar currently accounts for only 1% of all solar power (with PV being the rest), with heliostat fields providing just 0.25%. Our goals have been 1) to demonstrate a technical improvement for heliostats that can enable fields of them to more efficiently power receivers and reactors, and 2) to show a path to low-cost mass production. Our solution uses new opto-mechanical technology to correct a fundamental deficiency of present heliostats that limits their concentration, namely that they have fixed shape. Most of today’s heliostat research does not address this, but is directed simply toward cost reduction in an effort to make heliostats commercially viable. We are motivated to explore also improving heliostat efficiency, which can be done by continually changing their shape to maximize the concentration of sunlight throughout the day. This is not a new concept, but it has never been implemented in a practical, cost-effective way that approaches the theoretical limit to concentration while also improving mechanical performance; this is our goal. Our major accomplishments have been: 1) We have realized the planned design, construction, and test of a prototype heliostat that achieves the required shape changes in an 8 m2 single-piece glass mirror. The mirror is attached to a steel support frame that is automatically mechanically twisted by the heliostat drives that orient the mirror to direct sunlight to the tower-mounted receiver. Closed-loop tracking is done using a new beamsplitter camera that exploits the target-oriented mount configuration. Field tests of the heliostat show that the light is reflected through the day to always form a disc image of the sun, as needed to obtain the highest concentration. 2) We have developed the design for a field of 431 heliostats to deliver annual average of 1 MW of thermal power at 3,000 sun concentration, matched to a high-temperature ≥ 1000°C chemical reactor. 3) We have also developed, beyond the original stated goals of the project, a new concept for closed-loop tracking and shape-sensing for all the heliostats in the above field, using just 6 cameras around the concentrated reactor focus. Our research adds to the understanding of solar thermal energy by its demonstration of the technical effectiveness of a higher performing heliostat, and by its concept for a new powerful method for real-time tracking and shape sensing in the field, as described above. We have studied the economic feasibility of fields of our twisting heliostats to provide high- temperature heat at a price competitive with that of burning gas, to satisfy the DOE’s studied zero-emissions scenario, where the gas price has to include the cost of carbon capture. The project has the potential to greatly benefit the public if it helps limit global warming by 1) reducing carbon emission from industrial heating, which is currently a major contributor to the 40-billion-ton annual increase in atmospheric CO 2 . 2) Ultimately, the technology could prove to be the least expensive method to power direct air capture of CO 2 on the very large scale needed to remove the 1 trillion-ton excess of CO 2 already in the atmosphere.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

KR Persei, a Mid-F Eclipsing Binary with a One-day Period

KR Per is a partially eclipsing binary with an orbital period of 0.9960798 days, very close to one sidereal day, making it difficult to obtain extensive phase coverage in a reasonable amount of time. We used the Wilson–Devinney program to determine its orbital elements and stellar absolute dimensions from recently acquired radial velocities and differential BVRI observations that were supplemented with previous differential UBV measurements and published times of minima. The two components are each F5 V stars with masses of 1.466±0.015 M{sub ⊙} and 1.458±0.015 M{sub ⊙}. The radii are 1.855±0.021 R{sub ⊙} and 1.824±0.022 R{sub ⊙}. The orbital period of the eclipsing system is variable and more times of minima observations are needed. A comparison with evolutionary tracks indicates that the system has an age of 2.1 ± 0.1 Gyr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantifying and attributing time step sensitivities in present-day climate simulations conducted with EAMv1

Abstract. This study assesses the relative importance of time integration error in present-day climate simulations conducted with the atmosphere component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (EAMv1) at 1∘ horizontal resolution. We show that a factor-of-6 reduction of time step size in all major parts of the model leads to significant changes in the long-term mean climate. Examples of changes in 10-year mean zonal averages include the following: up to 0.5 K of warming in the lower troposphere and cooling in the tropical and subtropical upper troposphere, 1 %–10 % decreases in relative humidity throughout the troposphere, and 10 %–20 % decreases in cloud fraction in the upper troposphere and decreases exceeding 20 % in the subtropical lower troposphere. In terms of the 10-year mean geographical distribution, systematic decreases of 20 %–50 % are seen in total cloud cover and cloud radiative effects in the subtropics. These changes imply that the reduction of temporal truncation errors leads to a notable although unsurprising degradation of agreement between the simulated and observed present-day climate; to regain optimal climate fidelity in the absence of those truncation errors, the model would require retuning. A coarse-grained attribution of the time step sensitivities is carried out by shortening time steps used in various components of EAM or by revising the numerical coupling between some processes. Our analysis leads to the finding that the marked decreases in the subtropical low-cloud fraction and total cloud radiative effect are caused not by the step size used for the collectively subcycled turbulence, shallow convection, and stratiform cloud macrophysics and microphysics parameterizations but rather by the step sizes used outside those subcycles. Further analysis suggests that the coupling frequency between the subcycles and the rest of EAM significantly affects the subtropical marine stratocumulus decks, while deep convection has significant impacts on trade cumulus. The step size of the cloud macrophysics and microphysics subcycle itself appears to have a primary impact on cloud fraction in the upper troposphere and also in the midlatitude near-surface layers. Impacts of step sizes used by the dynamical core and the radiation parameterization appear to be relatively small. These results provide useful clues for future studies aiming at understanding and addressing the root causes of sensitivities to time step sizes and process coupling frequencies in EAM. While this study focuses on EAMv1 and the conclusions are likely model-specific, the presented experimentation strategy has general value for weather and climate model development, as the methodology can help researchers identify and understand sources of time integration error in sophisticated multi-component models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Building the Case for Hybrid Energy Developments: Webinar Recording Day 1

INL, PNNL, and NREL, with support from our academic and industry partners, hosted a 2-day webinar to learn more about the benefits of hybrid energy systems, considerations for designing the right system for communities, and practical tools that can help with the design and development process. In Day 1 of this webinar, the focus was on why users might want to consider hybrid energy systems, and frameworks that could help inform design decisions for hybrid systems, including a valuation framework, resilience framework, and hybrid system design optimization framework.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Successes and Challenges of the Integrated Waste Treatment Unit's 50-Day Demonstration Run - 20151

The Integrated Waste Treatment Unit (IWTU) has been tasked with using steam reforming technology to treat 3.4 million liters (900,000 gallons) of radioactive sodium-bearing waste (SBW) at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The project has been hampered by a number of processing issues associated with process equipment during simulant testing, with the two main issues involving the fluidizing gas distribution system in the main reactor vessel, the denitration mineralization reformer (DMR), and high differential pressures in the main filter vessel, the process gas filter (PGF). Following the replacement of the fluidizing gas distribution system in the DMR, a successful 30-day demonstration run was performed that revealed unacceptable bridging in the filter bundles of the PGF. The bundles were replaced with new ones, and a 50-day demonstration run was performed. The main purpose of this run was to operate the IWTU over a range of operating conditions. Overall, the run was a success; however, there were multiple challenges that arose from the run. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

LAF-Net: A Deep Residual and Cross-Attention Framework for Day-Ahead Load Forecasting: Preprint

Accurate day-ahead load forecasting is essential for reliable power system operations and market efficiency. System operators such as the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) rely on forecasts from multiple vendors, yet combining them effectively remains a persistent challenge due to vendor-specific biases. This paper presents a novel LSTM-Attention Fusion Network with Error Representation (LAF-Net) that enhances day-ahead hourly load forecasting through deep residual learning and multi-modal cross-attention. The proposed model builds a historical error memory from past vendor performance and dynamically queries it with future hour context to generate adaptive, hour-specific trust weights for each vendor. A bounded residual correction further refines forecasts by mitigating systematic and temporally localized errors. Tested on real MISO LBA data with multi-vendor forecasts, LAF-Net consistently outperforms the best vendor baseline across all 38 LBAs, achieving more than a 40% reduction in system-level mean absolute error (MAE) during peak load hours relative to the best vendor baseline.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Multistage robust optimization for the day-ahead scheduling of hybrid thermal-hydro-wind-solar systems

The integration of large-scale uncertain and uncontrollable wind and solar power generation has brought new challenges to the operations of modern power systems. In a power system with abundant water resources, hydroelectric generation with high operational flexibility is a powerful tool to promote a higher penetration of wind and solar power generation. In this paper, we study the day-ahead scheduling of a thermal-hydro-wind-solar power system. The uncertainties of renewable energy generation, including uncertain natural water inflow and wind/solar power output, are taken into consideration. We explore how the operational flexibility of hydroelectric generation and the coordination of thermal-hydro power can be utilized to hedge against uncertain wind/solar power under a multistage robust optimization (MRO) framework. To address the computational issue, mixed decision rules are employed to reformulate the original MRO model with a multi-level structure into a bi-level one. Column-and-constraint generation (C &CG) algorithm is extended into the MRO case to solve the bi-level model. The proposed optimization approach is tested in three real-world cases. Furthermore, the computational results demonstrate the capability of hydroelectric generation to promote the accommodation of uncertain wind and solar power.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Drivers of Dry Day Sensitivity to Increased CO 2

Persistent precipitation deficits are among the most impactful consequences of global warming. Here we focus on changes in the annual number of dry days (NDD) and in the annual maximum length of dry spells due to a quadrupling of atmospheric CO 2 . We use atmosphere-only simulations to decompose the projected changes into additive contributions. A fast adjustment leads to a global increase in NDD despite notable regional exceptions (e.g., South Asia and Sahel). The effect of the uniform component of the surface ocean warming is model-dependent but shapes the regional distribution of the NDD response in each model. Finally, the ocean warming pattern also contributes to large uncertainties, likely through contrasting changes in large-scale circulation. Our results thus highlight the complexity of the NDD response, with policy-relevant practical implications for mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Robust Optimization for the Day-Ahead Scheduling of Cascaded Hydroelectric Systems

Uncertain electricity prices resulting from the re-structuring of electricity market have brought new opportu-nities and challenges for hydroelectric producers. This paper presents a data-driven robust optimization approach for the day-ahead scheduling of cascaded hydroelectric systems (CHS) with electricity price uncertainty. In this paper, a minimum volume enclosing ellipsoid (MVEE) is adopted to construct an ellipsoidal uncertainty set that fully identifies and exploits the historical characteristics data. Here, a second-order conic optimization formulation of the robust counterpart is derived for efficient computation. A real-world case study is conducted to demonstrate the capability of the proposed optimization approach compared with the traditional robust optimization approach.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Data-Driven Day-Ahead PV Estimation Using Autoencoder-LSTM and Persistence Model

Inherent variability in photovoltaic (PV) and associated impacts on power systems is a challenging problem for both the PV owners and the grid operators. Existing statistical and machine learning algorithms typically work well for weather conditions similar to historical data. Furthermore, uncertain weather conditions pose a great challenge to the estimation accuracy of the estimation models. With the enhanced integration of intelligent electronic devices and the realization of associated automation in the power grid, renewable energy data is becoming more accessible, which can be utilized by deep learning models and improve the PV power generation estimation accuracy. In this paper, a hybrid deep learning model driven by external weather data is proposed to do day-ahead PV output forecasting at 15-minute-interval. The proposed model is motivated by the recent advancement of Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) networks and AutoEncoder (AE), which estimates uncertainties in sequence while making the prediction for complex weather conditions. Meanwhile, the persistence model (PM) is used to predict continuous sunny weather conditions. The forecasting result is validated with data from multiple locations

42 ENGINEERING↗

Self-Lubricating Bushing Testing for John Day Dam Ka plan Turbine Replacement

The goal of this testing program is to find suitable self-lubricated alternatives to replace the in use oil lubricated grooved-bronze bushing in Kaplan runner hubs that are currently being utilized at John Day Dam operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). Scaled bushing testing utilizing a Pacific Northwest National Laboratory designed, fabricated, and operated Bushing Test Stand under the direction and funding from USACE determined that self-lubricated bushings tested appear capable of outperforming the current oil-lubricated bronze bushings. Performance tests are focused on durability which includes cyclic load bearing properties and articulations under various loading scenarios. This testing was performed at nominally 1/5 th scale. A scaling sensitivity analysis determined that scaled testing results apply to prototypic size. This report shows the direct comparison between the current baseline bronze bushing to self-lubricated bushings from various manufacturers. Bushing data like coefficient of friction and bushing material loss (associated with bushing wear) was determined. Self-lubricated bushings tested include products manufactured specifically for hydropower applications by the following companies: Trelleborg, Kamatics, Anonymous, and Tenneco/Deva.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Incorporate day-ahead robustness and real-time incentives for electricity market design

In this paper, we propose a two-stage electricity market framework to explore the participation of distributed energy resources (DERs) in a day-ahead (DA) market and a real-time (RT) market. The objective is to determine the optimal bidding strategies of the aggregated DERs in the DA market and generate online incentive signals for DER-owners to optimize the social-welfare taking into account network operational constraints. Distributionally robust optimization is used to explicitly incorporate data-based statistical information of renewable forecasts into the supply/demand decisions in the DA market. We evaluate the conservativeness of bidding strategies distinguished by different risk aversion settings. In the RT market, a bi-level time-varying optimization problem is proposed to design the online incentive signals to tradeoff the RT imbalance penalty for distribution system operators (DSOs) and the costs of individual DER-owners. This enables tracking their optimal dispatch to provide fast balancing services, in the presence of time-varying network states while satisfying the voltage regulation requirement. Simulation results on both DA wholesale market and RT balancing market demonstrate the necessity of this two-stage design, and its robustness to uncertainties, the performance of convergence, the tracking ability and the feasibility of the resulting network operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗