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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

EVI-EnSitePy (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure – Energy Estimation and Site Optimization Tool in Python) [EVI-X Modeling Suite] [SWR-25-07]

EVI-EnSitePy is a comprehensive agent-based tool designed for the analysis and design of high-power charging sites, encompassing a wide array of site agents including Electric Vehicles (EVs), chargers, energy storage units (ESS), renewable energy resources (DER), and loads. This versatile tool offers diverse functionalities and a modular modeling approach, allowing detailed configuration of agents based on power ratings, port numbers, energy capacities, demand requirements, charger interfaces, and flexibility to customize the tool for project specific goals. By simulating agent interactions and employing various metrics, EVI-EnSitePy enables the assessment of site performance, exploration of energy management systems (EMS), and implementation of innovative EV charging policies. Utilizing EV charge schedules and arrival states, the tool performs thorough charging site simulations, with outputs consisting of agent and site-level power profiles and statistical metrics. Employing a tree graph structure, EVI-EnSitePy supports nested site structures and power distribution modeling. The tool's ability to generate charging schedules deterministically or via stochastic analysis further enhances its versatility. Through its features and capabilities, EVI-EnSitePy offers a powerful platform for informed decision-making in the realm of high-power charging site design and operation.

Jackson, Derek [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗

Planning for cooler communities: Vacant lots as components of heat resilience in Mesa, Arizona

Vacant lots are often perceived as contributing to negative socioeconomic and environmental impacts on surrounding communities. However, they also offer opportunities for strategic interventions that promote heat resilience. This study uses a decision-scale congruence analytic approach to examine the correlation between extreme heat and community resilience in the context of vacant lots in the city of Mesa, Arizona. By identifying and analyzing over 1,200 vacant lots, we assessed spatial patterns of Community Resilience Estimates (CRE) for Heat and Body Heat Storage (BHS) to understand their correlation at the unit of analysis of vacant lots, where key decisions are made concerning land use. The results reveal a nonrandom spatial distribution of CRE for Heat and BHS across Mesa’s vacant lots. Vacant lots are disproportionately concentrated in neighborhoods with lower resilience, exacerbating heat exposure. Communities with limited access to cooling infrastructure, tree canopy, and other resources experience lowered heat resilience. A positive correlation between CRE for Heat and BHS shows that areas with higher heat exposure tend to have lower community resilience, reinforcing the need for cooling interventions. This study highlights the potential for converting vacant lots into heat-resilient, community-serving spaces. Using our findings, decision makers can identify priority areas and leverage vacant lots to mitigate heat impacts and foster community resilience.

community resilience↗

A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Composition of Catalytic Coprocessing Products from Molecular Beam Mass Spectra

Demand for the development of an automated and integrated refining process for biofuels has increased in recent years due to the lack of generalized process inspection tools. In bio-oil upgrading processes, all process variables are maintained based on the offline specification of intermediates and products. A lack of real-time product specifications in batch-wise monitoring can cause process failure and wasted resources. Therefore, there is a need for a fast and accurate intermediates/product specification tool that can be used for real-time specification to reduce waste and mitigate the risk of process failure. Here, to address this gap, we developed a machine learning (ML) model for predicting speciated bio-oil composition, including paraffin, iso-paraffins, olefins, naphthene, and aromatics. The model is trained using the mass spectra from upgraded products collected in the vapor phase before condensation and predicts the composition of the condensed product. Training ML models using raw mass spectra is challenging due to numerous overlapped peaks originating from different parent compounds. With this in mind, we propose a protocol that (i) transforms raw mass spectra to chemistry-inspired predefined features and (ii) trains decision tree-based models using these features. Our results show that the random forest model was robust against overfitting and had the highest accuracy compared to other models. Moreover, a stochastic ablation method determined the eight most significant features while maximizing the accuracy. Our protocol facilitates real-time compositional analysis of upgraded bio-oils and thus real-time process monitoring. Additionally, this protocol enables the rational design of efficient catalysts and the determination of optimal process conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Deep Learning and Likelihood Approaches for Viral Phylogeography Converge on the Same Answers Whether the Inference Model Is Right or Wrong

Abstract Analysis of phylogenetic trees has become an essential tool in epidemiology. Likelihood-based methods fit models to phylogenies to draw inferences about the phylodynamics and history of viral transmission. However, these methods are often computationally expensive, which limits the complexity and realism of phylodynamic models and makes them ill-suited for informing policy decisions in real-time during rapidly developing outbreaks. Likelihood-free methods using deep learning are pushing the boundaries of inference beyond these constraints. In this paper, we extend, compare, and contrast a recently developed deep learning method for likelihood-free inference from trees. We trained multiple deep neural networks using phylogenies from simulated outbreaks that spread among 5 locations and found they achieve close to the same levels of accuracy as Bayesian inference under the true simulation model. We compared robustness to model misspecification of a trained neural network to that of a Bayesian method. We found that both models had comparable performance, converging on similar biases. We also implemented a method of uncertainty quantification called conformalized quantile regression that we demonstrate has similar patterns of sensitivity to model misspecification as Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) and greatly overlap with HPDs, but have lower precision (more conservative). Finally, we trained and tested a neural network against phylogeographic data from a recent study of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Europe and obtained similar estimates of region-specific epidemiological parameters and the location of the common ancestor in Europe. Along with being as accurate and robust as likelihood-based methods, our trained neural networks are on average over 3 orders of magnitude faster after training. Our results support the notion that neural networks can be trained with simulated data to accurately mimic the good and bad statistical properties of the likelihood functions of generative phylogenetic models.

Evolutionary Biology↗

Weakly supervised anomaly detection with event-level variables

We introduce a new topology for weakly supervised anomaly detection searches, diobject plus X. In this topology, one looks for a resonance decaying to two standard model particles produced in association with other anomalous event activity (X). This additional activity is used for classification. We demonstrate how anomaly detection techniques which have been developed for dijet searches focusing on jet substructure anomalies can be applied to event-level anomaly detection in this topology. To robustly capture event-level features of multiparticle kinematics, we employ new physically motivated variables derived from the geometric structure of a collision’s phase space manifold. As a proof of concept, we explore the application of this approach to several benchmark signals in the di-𝜏 and di-𝜇 plus X final states. We demonstrate that our anomaly detection approach can reach discovery-level significances for signals that would be missed in a conventional bump-hunt approach.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

An Online Search Method for Representative Risky Fault Chains Based on Reinforcement Learning and Knowledge Transfer

In the analysis of cascading outages and blackouts in power systems, risky cascading fault chains should be accurately identified in order to do further block or alleviate blackouts. However, the huge computational burden makes online analysis difficult. In this paper, an online search method for representative risky fault chains based on reinforcement learning and knowledge transfer is proposed. This method aims at promoting efficiency by exploiting similarities of adjacent power flow snapshots in operations. After the “representative risky fault chain” is defined, a framework of tree search based on Markov Decision Process and Q-learning is constructed. The knowledge in past runs is accumulated offline and then applied online, with a mechanism of knowledge transition and extension. The proposed learning based approach is verified on an illustrative 39-bus system with different loading levels, and simulations are carried out on a realworld 1000-bus power grid in China to show the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

Blackout↗

Using Machine Learning for Quantum Annealing Accuracy Prediction

Quantum annealers, such as the device built by D-Wave Systems, Inc., offer a way to compute solutions of NP-hard problems that can be expressed in Ising or quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) form. Although such solutions are typically of very high quality, problem instances are usually not solved to optimality due to imperfections of the current generations quantum annealers. In this contribution, we aim to understand some of the factors contributing to the hardness of a problem instance, and to use machine learning models to predict the accuracy of the D-Wave 2000Q annealer for solving specific problems. We focus on the maximum clique problem, a classic NP-hard problem with important applications in network analysis, bioinformatics, and computational chemistry. By training a machine learning classification model on basic problem characteristics such as the number of edges in the graph, or annealing parameters, such as the D-Wave’s chain strength, we are able to rank certain features in the order of their contribution to the solution hardness, and present a simple decision tree which allows to predict whether a problem will be solvable to optimality with the D-Wave 2000Q. We extend these results by training a machine learning regression model that predicts the clique size found by D-Wave.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Prediction of Dielectric Constant in Series of Polymers by Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship (QSPR)

This work is devoted to the investigation of dielectric permittivity which is influenced by electronic, ionic, and dipolar polarization mechanisms, contributing to the material’s capacity to store electrical energy. In this study, an extended dataset of 86 polymers was analyzed, and two quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) models were developed to predict dielectric permittivity. From an initial set of 1273 descriptors, the most relevant ones were selected using a genetic algorithm, and machine learning models were built using the Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR). In contrast to Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)- and Partial Least Squares (PLS)-based models, the gradient boosting models excel in handling nonlinear relationships and multicollinearity, iteratively optimizing decision trees to improve accuracy without overfitting. The developed GBR models showed high R2 coefficients of 0.938 and 0.822, for the training and test sets, respectively. An Accumulated Local Effect (ALE) technique was applied to assess the relationship between the selected descriptors—eight for the GB_A model and six for the GB_B model, and their impact on target property. ALE analysis revealed that descriptors such as TDB09m had a strong positive effect on permittivity, while MLOGP2 showed a negative effect. These results highlight the effectiveness of the GBR approach in predicting the dielectric properties of polymers, offering improved accuracy and interpretability.

Ascencio-Medina, Estefania↗

A Redundancy-Guided Approach for the Hazard Analysis of Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Advanced Nuclear Power Plants

We report digital instrumentation and control (I&C) upgrades are a vital research area for the nuclear industry. Despite their performance benefits, deployment of digital I&C in nuclear power plants (NPPs) has been limited. Digital I&C systems exhibit complex failure modes including common cause failures (CCFs), which can be difficult to identify. This paper describes the development of a redundancy-guided application of the Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis and fault tree analysis for the hazard analysis of digital I&C in advanced NPPs. The resulting Redundancy-Guided Systems-Theoretic Hazard Analysis (RESHA) is applied for the case study of a representative state-of-the-art digital reactor trip system. The analysis qualitatively and systematically identifies the most critical CCFs and other hazards of digital I&C systems. Ultimately, the RESHA can help researchers make informed decisions for how, and to what degree, defensive measures such as redundancy, diversity, and defense in depth can be used to mitigate or eliminate the potential hazards of digital I&C systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Seeing the forest for the trees: implementing dynamic representation of forest management and forest carbon in a long-term global multisector model

Abstract Studies have found that understanding forest management is critical in understanding the interaction between the carbon cycle and the integrated human-Earth system. This makes effectively representing forest management decisions such as planting and harvesting important. Here, we implement a novel dynamic forest harvest model in a global state of the art multi-sector dynamics model, namely the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We implement an approach that explicitly tracks forest age and generates rotation ages for forest harvest that are responsive to changes in wood prices, changes in forest age and regional preferences for forest rotation. Furthermore, the forest sector in GCAM competes for investment with other land use types in the future years based on expected profit. Our baseline scenario results indicate that with the new forest harvest model, the current global wood product demand in GCAM can be met with minimal loss of old growth forest through the age-based harvest decisions. We find that economic pressure for deforestation and consequent loss of forest carbon is a bigger driver of global forest change than wood harvests, especially in developing regions. Under alternative scenarios where an economic value is placed on carbon across the terrestrial and energy systems, while there is an increase in forest plantations, there can be corresponding decreases in forest cover in some regions as forest land competes with land for bio-energy crops. When the carbon in forests is assigned a price, we find that the average rotation age for wood harvests can be reduced across regions to harvest forests in a more carbon efficient manner.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Winners are not keepers: Characterizing household engagement, gains, and energy patterns in demand response using machine learning in the United States

Demand-response programs can help utilities manage rapidly evolving electric grids, but these programs are subject to the complexities of human behavior. This paper explores a novel method for uncovering heterogeneity in households. In this work, we use a machine-learning method known as a Conditional Inference Tree (c-tree) algorithm to categorize households based on their energy behavior characteristics collected via smart meters, and explore how this translates through into heterogeneity in their real-world response to a DR program. Using data from randomized controlled trial, we generate estimates of the changes in energy use caused by the program within each household group. Our results show that the c-tree approach differentiates households by their energy-use characteristics in a way that increases the spread in enrollment rates and critical peak reduction among household groups, compared with the spreads achieved via several conventional segmentation methods. Thus, the c-tree analysis enables the most tailored targeting of major potential energy savers and could provide the greatest increase in cost-effectiveness of household recruitment into DR programs. Our results also offer fresh insights into the relationships between household energy behavior characteristics – such as peak energy use and “structural winningness” (the ability to save money under a DR program without changing energy-use behaviors) – and household decisions about enrolling in DR programs and reducing energy use. Our research also demonstrates the potential of smart meter data, combined with machine learning and econometric methods, to provide significant value to utilities, program implementers, researchers, and other stakeholders.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Supporting Risk-informed Decision-making During Reactor Accidents

Uncertainty in severe accident evolution and outcome is driven by event bifurcations that represent distinctive challenges to defensive layers and tend to promote the emergence of discrete classes of core damage and accident risk. This discrete set of "attractor" states arise from the complex networks of competing physical phenomena and conditional event cascades occurring as the overall system degrades – a process that yields increasing degrees of freedom and accident progression pathways. Characterization of these event spaces has proven elusive to more traditional data interrogation methods, but proves tractable by application of more advanced data collection and machine learning approaches. Through application of these approaches we demonstrate a conceptual framework that enables real-time/robust, risk-informed decision-making support to improve accident mitigation and encourage “graceful exits” during low probability, extreme events limiting accident consequences. In this analysis, we simulated over 8,000 short-term station blackout (STSBO) accidents with the state-of-the-art integral severe accident code, MELCOR, and demonstrate the potential for ML approaches to predict simulation outcomes. We chose to pair ML tools with interpretable and mechanistic event trees for the considered STSBO accident space to predict the likelihood of future event paths along the tree. In addition to the current state of the system, we use information from recent trajectories of temperature, pressure, and other physical features, combining both the current state and past trajectories to forecast future event paths. Finally, we simulate the random injection of variable amounts of water to quantify the efficacy of available actions at reducing risks along the many branches in the event tree. We identify scenarios and windows of opportunity to mitigate risk as well as scenarios in which such actions are unlikely to alter the accident end-state.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Automated System-wide Event Detection and Classification Using Machine Learning on Synchrophasor Data

As the number of phasor measurement units (PMUs) deployed in a power system increases, and their data volume streamed to the control canter intensifies, operators are facing challenges related to the analysis of such data, which need to be observed and responded to as the measurements are displayed in the Control Room. Humans are generally unable to process such large amount of data efficiently and rapidly. There is an apparent need for automated ways to analyze the data, extract actionable information about occurrence of specific events, and characterize the events quickly and cost effectively. This paper discusses the use of machine learning (ML) to facilitate such tasks by providing automated, highly computationally efficient, and cost-effective ways of extracting actionable information from synchrophasor big data in real-time. We developed Big Data Smart (BDSmart) ML-based prototype tool for the Control Room use that automatically analyses data properties from synchrophasor system measurements taken across the three grid Interconnections in the USA (Western, Eastern and ERCOT). The data collected from several hundreds of PMUs located across the Interconnections over a period of two years have been made available for our extensive study. As a result, we were able to identify a number of big data properties that influence how ML methodology is applied to select, develop, train and test the data models that can eventually be used for the tool implementation. The resulting set of candidate algorithms spans unsupervised, supervised, semi-supervised and transfer-learning approaches. Many ML techniques, such as decision trees, multinomial logistic regression, feed-forward neural networks, K-nearest neighbor, multiclass support vector machine, and single and multi-channel convolutional neural networks, are implemented, and their performance is examined. We offer the results from testing the data models. The novelty of our study is in the approaches for bad data detection and mitigation, selection of a simplified feature for event detection, and data label improvements. As a result, we came up with a list of recommendations for the utilities on how to improve the PMU recording practices to cater to the future ML applications aimed at automating the analysis of synchrophasor data.

Synchrophasors, Machine Learning, System-wide Even↗

Entropy removal of medical diagnostics

Shannon entropy is a core concept in machine learning and information theory, particularly in decision tree modeling. To date, no studies have extensively and quantitatively applied Shannon entropy in a systematic way to quantify the entropy of clinical situations using diagnostic variables (true and false positives and negatives, respectively). Decision tree representations of medical decision-making tools can be generated using diagnostic variables found in literature and entropy removal can be calculated for these tools. This concept of clinical entropy removal has significant potential for further use to bring forth healthcare innovation, such as quantifying the impact of clinical guidelines and value of care and applications to Emergency Medicine scenarios where diagnostic accuracy in a limited time window is paramount. This analysis was done for 623 diagnostic tools and provided unique insights into their utility. For studies that provided detailed data on medical decision-making algorithms, bootstrapped datasets were generated from source data to perform comprehensive machine learning analysis on these algorithms and their constituent steps, which revealed a novel and thorough evaluation of medical diagnostic algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impurity gas detection for SNF canisters using probabilistic deep learning and acoustic sensing *

Abstract Monitoring impurity gases in spent nuclear fuel (SNF) canisters is a novel structural health monitoring approach for SNF in dry storage. The SNF canisters are sealed containers that do not facilitate visual access to the inside. Acoustic sensing can be deployed by taking advantage of the pathways unobstructed by internal hardware. Although the ultrasonic time-of-flight measurement can provide valuable information, it is limited in its ability to discern the concentration of only one impurity gas. As such, deep learning algorithms, particularly convolutional neural networks (CNNs), offer a promising solution. In this study, CNN-based probabilistic deep learning models were implemented to detect and quantify multiple impurity gases in helium. An experimental platform was established to simulate canister conditions, and ultrasonic test data were collected. The presence of argon and air in helium at concentrations ranging from 0% to 1.2% at increments of 0.05% was considered. The multi-layer perceptron, decision tree, and logistic regression classifiers achieved high accuracies when distinguishing pure helium from helium with impurities. CNN with dropout layers and CNN using maximum likelihood estimation showed a similar performance, indicating their ability to capture uncertainties. The ensemble CNN model exhibited improved predictions and the ability to balance individual gas concentration by integrating 1D- and 2D-CNN models. These findings contribute probabilistic deep learning solutions for impurity gas detection and analysis within SNF canisters, thus ensuring safe storage and management of SNFs.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Machine learning surrogate of physics-based building-stock simulator for end-use load forecasting

Building energy models are used to simulate heat and mass transfer and estimate end-use load in buildings. With the proliferation of solar photovoltaics on residential and commercial buildings, increasingly, buildings are expected to provide grid services, for which accurate and computationally efficient building energy simulations and end-use load prediction are imperative. Existing building energy simulation tools, however, have significant computational overhead that make them less practical in real-time deployment for optimization, design, uncertainty quantification and control in building energy management systems. Here this article presents a data-driven machine learning model based on light gradient boosting method (LightGBM) as a surrogate for a physics-based simulator for residential buildings to predict end-use load. The machine learning based surrogate model accounts for time-series related variables, seasonality and trend component of end-use load, and history of end-use load. The accuracy of the surrogate model is assessed on the prediction of the load profiles of 100 different houses in Cook County, Illinois, USA. The LightGBM surrogate model is shown to reduce the root-mean-squared error by 53% relative to a reference decision tree (DT) based model reported previously in the literature. Moreover, the model predicts the load spikes and high-ramp rate events throughout the year which are often the Achilles heel of other models in the literature. The machine learning based surrogate model is demonstrated to be computationally efficient, with a ten-fold reduction in the computational time compared to a physics-based building energy simulation, and suitable for uncertainty analysis and real-time control of building characteristics in response to uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NANO.PTML model for read-across prediction of nanosystems in neurosciences. computational model and experimental case of study

Abstract Neurodegenerative diseases involve progressive neuronal death. Traditional treatments often struggle due to solubility, bioavailability, and crossing the Blood-Brain Barrier (BBB). Nanoparticles (NPs) in biomedical field are garnering growing attention as neurodegenerative disease drugs (NDDs) carrier to the central nervous system. Here, we introduced computational and experimental analysis. In the computational study, a specific IFPTML technique was used, which combined Information Fusion (IF) + Perturbation Theory (PT) + Machine Learning (ML) to select the most promising Nanoparticle Neuronal Disease Drug Delivery (N2D3) systems. For the application of IFPTML model in the nanoscience, NANO.PTML is used. IF-process was carried out between 4403 NDDs assays and 260 cytotoxicity NP assays conducting a dataset of 500,000 cases. The optimal IFPTML was the Decision Tree (DT) algorithm which shown satisfactory performance with specificity values of 96.4% and 96.2%, and sensitivity values of 79.3% and 75.7% in the training (375k/75%) and validation (125k/25%) set. Moreover, the DT model obtained Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) scores of 0.97 and 0.96 in the training and validation series, highlighting its effectiveness in classification tasks. In the experimental part, two samples of NPs (Fe 3 O 4 _A and Fe 3 O 4 _B) were synthesized by thermal decomposition of an iron(III) oleate (FeOl) precursor and structurally characterized by different methods. Additionally, in order to make the as-synthesized hydrophobic NPs (Fe 3 O 4 _A and Fe 3 O 4 _B) soluble in water the amphiphilic CTAB (Cetyl Trimethyl Ammonium Bromide) molecule was employed. Therefore, to conduct a study with a wider range of NP system variants, an experimental illustrative simulation experiment was performed using the IFPTML-DT model. For this, a set of 500,000 prediction dataset was created. The outcome of this experiment highlighted certain NANO.PTML systems as promising candidates for further investigation. The NANO.PTML approach holds potential to accelerate experimental investigations and offer initial insights into various NP and NDDs compounds, serving as an efficient alternative to time-consuming trial-and-error procedures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Tree-Based Ensemble Learning Models for Wall Temperature Predictions in Post-Critical Heat Flux Flow Regimes at Subcooled and Low-Quality Conditions

Accurately predicting post-critical heat flux (CHF) heat transfer is an important but challenging task in water-cooled reactor design and safety analysis. Although numerous heat transfer correlations have been developed to predict post-CHF heat transfer, these correlations are only applicable to relatively narrow ranges of flow conditions due to the complex physical nature of the post-CHF heat transfer regimes. In this paper, a large quantity of experimental data is collected and summarized from the literature for steady-state subcooled and low-quality film boiling regimes with water as the working fluid in vertical tubular test sections. In addition, a low-quality water film boiling (LWFB) database is consolidated with a total of 22,813 experimental data points, which cover a wide flow range of the system pressure from 0.1 to 9.0 MPa, mass flux from 25 to 2750 kg/m 2 s, and inlet subcooling from 1 to 70 °C. Two machine learning (ML) models, based on random forest (RF) and gradient boosted decision tree (GBDT), are trained and validated to predict wall temperatures in post-CHF flow regimes. The trained ML models demonstrate significantly improved accuracies compared to conventional empirical correlations. To further evaluate the performance of these two ML models from a statistical perspective, three criteria are investigated and three metrics are calculated to quantitatively assess the accuracy of these two ML models. For the full LWFB database, the root-mean-square errors between the measured and predicted wall temperatures by the GBDT and RF models are 5.7% and 6.2%, respectively, confirming the accuracy of the two ML models.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗