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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Weather effects on the lifecycle of U.S. Department of Defense equipment replacement (WELDER)

Extreme weather has a direct and significant impact on buildings and infrastructure, resulting in billions of dollars of damage each year. This problem continues to grow as climate patterns change and buildings are exposed to new and different hazards than what they were designed to withstand. In order to better plan for the long-range sustainment, restoration, modernization, and eventual recapitalization of these buildings, organizations with large building portfolios, such as the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), must have an awareness of the risks that these extreme weather events present. This research aimed to develop an approach to estimate condition loss and reduction in service life for the components of a building due to extreme weather hazards, to understand the risks that may be present in certain buildings and building systems. To achieve this objective, a damage association matrix was developed that categorizes climate hazards, the damage modes that they produce, and the individual component types impacted. This damage matrix formally links state-of-the-art climate model output, which provides projections of the probability of various climate hazards with a damage effects model that quantifies the consequence on component-level condition and service life. This method is applied to an actual portfolio of buildings in a particular geographic location and with a pre-defined component inventory that comprises the building. This approach can be aggregated to the system-, facility-, and site-level thus helping support billions of dollars in recapitalization decisions related to restoration/modernization of facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparison of ammonia with methanol, liquefied natural gas and conventional marine transportation fuels through life cycle cost and emissions analysis

This work evaluates ammonia as a potential marine fuel for a SUEZMAX tanker and compares it with methanol, liquefied natural gas, and conventional fuel oils. The motivation arises from the need to identify low-emission, cost-competitive fuel options that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping. The central hypothesis is that ammonia produced from renewable energy sources can achieve lower well-to-wake greenhouse gas emissions with varying life cycle costs based on the region. Life cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis were performed for a thirty-year vessel lifetime on two representative trade routes: from Saudi Arabia to Japan and from Saudi Arabia to the Netherlands. Four ammonia production pathways were assessed: natural gas, natural gas with carbon capture, natural gas pyrolysis, and renewable electricity–based synthesis. Results show that wind-based ammonia produced in Saudi Arabia achieved the lowest life cycle well-to-wake greenhouse gas emissions, between 0.58 and 0.64 million metric tons, among all fuels when using regional grid process electricity. With renewable process electricity, ammonia produced from natural gas pyrolysis in Saudi Arabia showed comparable emissions of 0.37 to 0.44 million metric tons with wind-based ammonia of 0.37 to 0.43 million metric tons. Liquefied natural gas exhibited the lowest life cycle cost, between 402 and 412 million United States dollars, and the only negative carbon abatement cost, ranging from −277 to –322 United States dollars per metric ton of greenhouse gas, compared with high sulfur fuel oil. The findings indicate that renewable ammonia offers a promising long-term pathway for reducing shipping emissions, while liquefied natural gas remains the most cost-effective option in the near term.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Potential Economic Values of Low-Vapor-Pressure Gasoline-Range Bio-Blendstocks: Property Estimation, and Blending Optimization

Adding non-traditional blendstocks derived from biomass into gasoline has gained renewed interest since it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and potentially enhance fuel properties and boost engine efficiencies. A competitive bio-blendstock candidate should have either lower prices or superior properties or both relative to conventional gasoline blending components. Gasoline is a mixture of hundreds compounds specified by properties rather than compositions. The addition of bio-blendstocks, most likely oxygenates, will modify the property mixing rules due to the non-ideal interactions between polar and nonpolar components. This paper presents an equation-of-state-based model for predicting Reid vapor pressure, reduced order non-linear property blending models for computing key properties of final gasoline products, and a blending optimization approach to identify key economic drivers. This paper also evaluates the economic values of bio-blendstocks to petroleum refiners using those models. In additional to ethanol, six low-vapor-pressure bio-blendstock candidates were evaluated: i-propanol, n-propanol, i-butanol, diisobutylene, cyclopentanone, and a mixture of furans. Reid vapor pressure, distillation temperatures, and octane numbers were identified as the key economic drivers of adding bio-blendstock. The economic values of those bio-blendstocks range from 2.22 to 4.00 US dollar per gasoline gallon equivalent in 2013 to 2017 5-year averaged price basis. The bio-blendstocks with higher octane numbers may have higher economic values. The uncertainties in property predictions may lead to roughly 15% deviation in the economic value evaluation.

Jiang, Yuan↗
DOE OSTI2017

Roadmap to control HBV and HDV epidemics in China

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is endemic in China. Almost 10% of HBV infected individuals are also infected with hepatitis D virus (HDV) which has a 5–10 times higher mortality rate than HBV mono-infection. The aim of this manuscript is to devise strategies that can not only control HBV infections but also HDV infections in China under the current health care budget in an optimal manner. Furthermore, using a mathematical model, an annual budget of 10 billion dollars was optimally allocated among five interventions namely, testing and HBV adult vaccination, treatment for mono-infected and dually-infected individuals, second line treatment for HBV mono-infections, and awareness programs. As a result, we determine that the optimal strategy is to test and treat both infections as early as possible while applying awareness programs at full intensity. Under this strategy, an additional 19.8 million HBV, 1.9 million HDV infections and 0.25 million lives will be saved over the next 10 years at a cost-savings of 79 billion dollars than performing no intervention. Introduction of second line treatment does not add a significant economic burden yet prevents 1.4 million new HBV infections and 15,000 new HDV infections. In conclusion, test and treatment programs are highly efficient in reducing HBV and HDV prevalence in the population. Under the current health budget in China, not only test and treat programs but awareness programs and second line treatment can also be implemented that minimizes prevalence and mortality, and maximizes economic benefits.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-economic analysis of renewable energy generation at the South Pole

Transitioning from fossil-fuel power generation to renewable energy generation and energy storage in remote locations has the potential to reduce both carbon emissions and cost. Here, this study presents a techno-economic analysis for implementation of a hybrid renewable energy system at the South Pole in Antarctica, which currently hosts several high-energy physics experiments with nontrivial power needs. A tailored model of resource availability and economics for solar photovoltaics, wind turbine generators, lithium-ion energy storage, and long-duration energy storage at this site is explored in different combinations with and without existing diesel energy generation. The Renewable Energy Integration and Optimization (REopt) platform is used to determine the optimal system component sizing and the associated system economics and environmental benefit. We find that the least-cost system includes all three energy generation sources and lithium-ion energy storage. For an example steady-state load of 170 kW, this hybrid system includes 180 kW-DC of photovoltaic panels, 570 kW of wind turbines, and a 3.4 MWh lithium-ion battery energy storage system. This system reduces diesel consumption by 95% compared to an all -diesel configuration, resulting in approximately 1200 metric tons of carbon footprint avoided annually. Over the course of a 15-year analysis period the reduced diesel usage leads to a net savings of 57 million United States dollars, with a time to payback of approximately two years. All the scenarios modeled show that the transition to renewables is highly cost effective under the unique economics and constraints of this extremely remote site.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

The social inefficiency of regulating indirect land use change due to biofuels

Efforts to reduce the indirect land use change (ILUC) -related carbon emissions caused by biofuels has led to inclusion of an ILUC factor as a part of the carbon intensity of biofuels in a Low Carbon Fuel Standard. While previous research has provided varying estimates of this ILUC factor, there has been no research examining the economic effects and additional carbon savings from including this factor in implementing a Low Carbon Fuel Standard. In this article we show that inclusion of an ILUC factor in a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard led to additional abatement of cumulative emissions over 2007–2027 by 1.3 to 2.6% (0.6–1.1 billion mega-grams carbon-dioxide-equivalent (Mg CO 2 e -1 ) compared to those without an ILUC factor, depending on the ILUC factors utilized. The welfare cost to the US of this additional abatement ranged from 61 dollars to 187 dollars Mg CO 2 e -1 and was substantially greater than the social cost of carbon of $50 Mg CO 2 e -1 .

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characteristics of a cost-effective blood test for colorectal cancer screening

Background: Blood-based biomarker tests can potentially change the landscape of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. We characterize the conditions under which blood test screening would be as effective and cost-effective as annual fecal immunochemical testing or decennial colonoscopy. Methods: We used the 3 Cancer Information and Surveillance Modeling Network–Colon models to compare scenarios of no screening, annual fecal immunochemical testing, decennial colonoscopy, and a blood test meeting Centers for Medicare & Medicaid (CMS) coverage criteria (74% CRC sensitivity and 90% specificity). We varied the sensitivity to detect CRC (74%-92%), advanced adenomas (10%-50%), screening interval (1-3 years), and test cost ($25-$500). Primary outcomes included quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained from screening and costs for a US average-risk cohort of individuals aged 45 years. Results: Annual fecal immunochemical testing yielded 125-163 QALY gained per 1000 at a cost of 3811-5384 dollars per person, whereas colonoscopy yielded 132-177 QALY gained at a cost of 5375-7031 dollars per person. A blood test with 92% CRC sensitivity and 50% advanced adenoma sensitivity yielded 117-162 QALY gained if used every 3 years and 133-173 QALY gained if used every year but would not be cost-effective if priced above $$125 per test. If used every 3 years, a $500 blood test only meeting CMS coverage criteria yielded 83-116 QALY gained at a cost of $8559-$9413 per person. Conclusion: Blood tests that only meet CMS coverage requirements should not be recommended to patients who would otherwise undergo screening by colonoscopy or fecal immunochemical testing because of lower benefit. Blood tests need higher advanced adenoma sensitivity (above 40%) and lower costs (below $125) to be cost-effective.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

The ventilation problem in schools: literature review

Based on a review of literature published in refereed archival journals, ventilation rates in classrooms often fall far short of the minimum ventilation rates specified in standards. We report that there is compelling evidence, from both cross-sectional and intervention studies, of an association of increased student performance with increased ventilation rates. There is evidence that reduced respiratory health effects and reduced student absence are associated with increased ventilation rates. Increasing ventilation rates in schools imposes energy costs and can increase heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning system capital costs. The net annual costs, ranging from a few dollars to about 10 dollars per person, are less than 0.1% of typical public spending on elementary and secondary education in the United States. Finally, such expenditures seem like a small price to pay given the evidence of health and performance benefits.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Potential to Improve the Value of U.S. Geothermal Electricity Generation Through Flexible Operations

Geothermal power plants have typically been operated as baseload plants. The recent expansion of wind and solar power generation creates a potential opportunity to increase the value of geothermal generation through flexible operations. In recent years, California’s wholesale electricity markets have exhibited frequent, short-term periods of negative pricing, indicating that additional flexibility would be valued in the market. Here, we examine local nodal hourly price records at all geothermal plants located in the western United States. We describe how the frequency and temporal characteristics of negative pricing episodes have changed over recent years. Based on these price series, we calculate the value of multiple strategies of flexible operations. Additionally, we use the estimates of future prices, developed through a capacity-expansion model and a dispatch model, to explore how the value of such flexible operations might change along with further penetration of variable renewable power sources. Based on the historical pricing records, we find that simple curtailment of operations during negative pricing episodes could increase the average energy value by 1–2 dollars per MWh and that allowing for increased production during limited high-priced hours, in addition to curtailment during negative priced hours, could potentially double the increase in value (up to 4 dollars per MWh). The forward-looking simulations indicate reduced values of flexibility from geothermal power despite higher penetrations of variable renewable energy. This result highlights the possibility that increasing flexibility options throughout the system may counteract the influence of increased variable renewable energy deployment.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Clustering and Classification of Outage Patterns with Insights into their Links to Extreme Events

At a global level extreme events have increased in both scale and impact. These events have the potential to affect the electrical grid infrastructure and cause a wide range of outages, which can lead to a disruption in daily patterns, cost millions of dollars and also the loss of life. Currently, to track these outage events there have been various approaches developed ranging from regional to national level quantifications for what defines an outage. However, this variation in methods can potentially lead to subjective decision-making and a lack of proper management in relation to the event. While previous work has made strides in determining spatio-temporal patterns, minimal attention has been given to the type and number of outages an area may be exposed to. The differences in incurred cost and the overall severity of an event between a transformer box malfunction and a hurricane are drastic, and by finding historical signals, we can allow for more efficient management, potentially saving lives and millions of dollars. Here, we leverage unsupervised machine learning techniques to delineate outage patterns among 22 counties within the United States and find that there are clear, segregated clusters (0.93 silhouette) of data which are related by event behavior and underlying cause. This finding will allow for energy stakeholders, policy makers, and researchers to gain a deeper understanding of the extent and severity of historic events and to better prepare for electrical grid infrastructure planning and management.

Koob, Benjamin [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2018

Increasing the economic value of lignocellulosic stillage through medium-chain fatty acid production

Background Lignocellulosic biomass is viewed as an abundant renewable source of liquid fuels and chemicals that are currently derived from petroleum. When lignocellulosic biomass is used for ethanol production, the resulting liquid residue (stillage) contains large amounts of organic material that could be further transformed into recoverable bioproducts, hence enhancing the economics of the biorefinery. Results Here we test the hypothesis that a bacterial community could transform the organics in stillage into valuable bioproducts. We demonstrate the ability of this microbiome to convert stillage organics into medium-chain fatty acids (MCFAs), identify the predominant community members, and perform a technoeconomic analysis of recovering MCFAs as co-products of ethanol production. Steady-state operation of a stillage-fed bioreactor showed that 18% of the organic matter in stillage was converted to MCFAs. Xylose and complex carbohydrates were the primary substrates transformed. During the MCFA production period, the five major genera represented more than 95% of the community, including Lactobacillus, Roseburia, Atopobium, Olsenella, and Pseudoramibacter . To assess the potential benefits of producing MCFAs from stillage, we modeled the economics of ethanol and MCFA co-production, at MCFA productivities observed during reactor operation. Conclusions The analysis predicts that production of MCFAs, ethanol, and electricity could reduce the minimum ethanol selling price from 2.15 dollars 1.76 dollars gal -1 ($2.68 gal -1 gasoline equivalents) when compared to a lignocellulosic biorefinery that produces only ethanol and electricity.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Maximizing the U.S. Army’s Future Contribution to Global Security Using the Capability Portfolio Analysis Tool (CPAT)

We report that recent budget reductions have posed tremendous challenges to the U.S. Army in managing its portfolio of ground combat systems (tanks and other fighting vehicles), thus placing many important programs at risk. To address these challenges, the Army and a supporting team developed and applied the Capability Portfolio Analysis Tool (CPAT) to optimally invest in ground combat modernization over the next 25–35 years. CPAT provides the Army with the analytical rigor needed to help senior Army decision makers allocate scarce modernization dollars to protect soldiers and maintain capability overmatch. CPAT delivers unparalleled insight into multiple-decade modernization planning using a novel multiphase mixed-integer linear programming technique and illustrates a cultural shift toward analytics in the Army’s acquisition thinking and processes. CPAT analysis helped shape decisions to continue modernization of the $10 billion Stryker family of vehicles (originally slated for cancellation) and to strategically reallocate over $20 billion to existing modernization programs by not pursuing the Ground Combat Vehicle program as originally envisioned. Ultimately, more than 40 studies have been completed using CPAT, applying operations research methods to optimally prioritize billions of taxpayer dollars and allowing Army acquisition executives to base investment decisions on analytically rigorous evaluations of portfolio trade-offs.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

Retrofitting Holcim Ste. Genevieve Cement Plant with CO2 Capture Plant Using Air Liquide Cryocap™ FG Technology

The global cement manufacturing industry is a major contributor to carbon dioxide emissions. The International Energy Agency's "Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario" identifies CCS as a major strategy for meeting that goal. This project is among the first attempts to transfer capture technology developed at coal-fired power plants to the cement industry. The main objective of the project is to execute and complete a front-end engineering and design (FEED) studies for commercial-scale, carbon capture projects that separates 95% of the total CO2 emissions at the Holcim (US) Ste. Genevieve cement manufacturing facility using Air Liquide’s Pressure Swing Adsorption system (PSA) assisted Cryocap™ technology. The Holcim Ste. Genevieve cement plant in Missouri, US, boasts one of the largest single cement production lines in the world, with a capacity of approximately 12,000 t/day. The plant currently uses traditional fuels, namely coal and petcoke. The captured CO2 will be pipeline and geological storage grade. The industrial host site emits approximately 3.0 million tonne CO2/yr. Air Liquide’s Cryocap™ technology has been developed over the last 18+ years for CO2 capture applications. It has been shown to be applicable to a variety of industrial applications (e.g., steel, cement, SMR, Fluidized Catalytic Crackers (FCCs)). Cryocap™ FG consists of a Pressure Swing Adsorption (PSA) unit coupled with a Cryogenic System. The PSA pre-concentrates the CO2 from the flue gas, while the cryogenic unit enables the CO2 purity to be increased to the desired level. The project team is led by the Prairie Research Institute at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. The tasks include: complete FEED study for retrofitting the industrial facility with a carbon capture system to support developing a detailed cost estimate; business case analysis outlining the anticipated revenue and credits if projects was built and operated; technoeconomic analysis (TEA) outlining how capture system achieves DOE capture goals; and life cycle (LCA) analysis demonstrating zero net carbon emissions. The FEED study was successfully completed. This includes completing the process basis of design; preliminary engineering; outside battery limits (OSBL) detailed engineering including a Zero Liquid Discharge (ZLD) wastewater treatment system; inside battery limits (ISBL) detailed engineering [1]. An overall project capital cost estimate within a -20%/+30% accuracy was developed. The major contributors to the Total Plant Cost (TPC), by system, are the costs associated with the Outside Battery Limit (OSBL) section of the plant which includes a new river water intake structure and a Zero Liquid Discharge (ZLD) system. By cost category, the major contributors to the TPC are equipment and subcontractor costs, followed closely by engineering, construction management, home office and contractor fees. The TEA has been created to reflect the findings of the project. It analyzes the economic performance of the Cryocap™ technology by reviewing the estimated capital costs, operating cost, and revenue. The Cost of Capture (COC) associated with the Cryocap™ technology for 95% CO2 capture, when considering NETL 2018 economic assumptions (42/58 debt/equity ratio, 5.15% interest on debt and 1.42% return on equity in real dollars) and 2022 economic assumptions (42/58 debt/equity ratio, 8.82% interest on debt and 4.90% return on equity in real dollars) was found to be much lower than that for the DOE-NETL’s base-line cases. The highest contributors to the COC are annualized capital expenditures (CAPEX) and electricity consumption which can be offset by using lower cost renewable sources. The LCA was conducted using OpenLCA which is an open-source software that is recommended by NETL. The database utilized for this study was a modified version of TRACI 2.1 (developed by the US. Environmental Protection Agency’s National Risk Management Research Laboratory and modified by NETL). The Cryocap™ FG technology does not consume fuels in significant quantities and does not utilize specialized chemical solvents subject to decomposition, such as those utilized in amine-based carbon capture systems. The Cryocap™ FG technology mainly utilizes electricity as its energy input; hence, its calculated emissions are mainly associated with the generation of electricity offsite and are dependent on the energy matrix of the grid at the time of project implementation. The water consumption impact of the Cryocap™ FG is mostly for makeup of the water lost by evaporation in the cooling tower; however, the carbon capture plant will be equipped with a ZLD system to avoid effluent streams and minimize water consumption. The successful construction and operation of this plant based on this study results will provide a means to demonstrate an economically attractive and transformational capture technology that can be used to retrofit existing plants and be deployed at new plants.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2012

Manufacturing Process Modeling of 100-400 kW e Combined Heat and Power Stationary Fuel Cell Systems

A one year project to examine the processes employed in the manufacture of combined heat and power stationary fuel cells operating in the 100-400kWe range was commissioned in June 2010. The results of this project would be used to inform decision makers in charge of allocating R&D resources by highlighting the most expensive steps in the manufacturing process where processing alternatives might have the greatest potential for high impact cost reduction. Three fuel cell technologies were examined: phosphoric acid (PAFC), molten carbonate (MCFC), and solid oxide (SOFC) fuel cells. Two fuel cell technologies, PAFC and MCFC, are represented by commercially available products within the study boundaries. United Technologies Corporation (UTC) offers the PureCell 400 ® , a 400 kWe combined heat and power PAFC system. FuelCell Energy (FCE) offers the DFC-300 ® , a 375 kWe combined heat and power MCFC. A combined heat and power SOFC within the study boundaries is not available in the marketplace at the time of this study. Process based cost models using 2010 dollars were developed for each fuel cell technology. For all three technologies, model boundaries encompassed all direct and indirect materials; direct and indirect labor; capital, maintenance, tooling, floor space, and energy costs associated with the manufacturing process. Cost estimates were developed with academic and patent literature, industry partners, supplier quotations, Monte Carlo simulation software, and DFMA software. Life cycle and non-manufacturing costs such as sales, administration, R&D, office floor space, and profit were not quantified. Results presented are for assumed annual production volumes of 5, 20, 50, and 500 MWe/yr, and expressed in terms of dollars per kilowatt of electrical energy. A model baseline production volume of 20 MWe/yr (similar to recent production volumes experienced by UTC and FCE) was assumed for all three technologies.

Warren, Joshua A.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Economic Impact of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory on the State of Washington in Fiscal Year 2013

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is a large economic entity, with $1.06 billion in annual funding, $936 million in total spending, and 4,344 employees in fiscal year (FY) 2013. Four thousand, one hundred and one (4,101) employees live in Washington State. The Laboratory directly and indirectly supports almost $1.31 billion in economic output, 6,802 jobs, and $514 million in Washington State wage income from current operations. The state also gains more than $1.21 billion in output, more than 6,400 jobs, and $459 million in income through closely related economic activities, such as visitors, health care spending, spending by resident retirees, and spinoff companies. PNNL affects Washington’s economy through commonly recognized economic channels, including spending on payrolls and other goods and services that support Laboratory operations. Less-commonly recognized channels also have their own impacts and include company-supported spending on health care for its staff members and retirees, spending of its resident retirees, Laboratory visitor spending, and the economic activities in a growing constellation of “spinoff” companies founded on PNNL research, technology, and managerial expertise. PNNL also has a significant impact on science and technology education and community nonprofit organizations. PNNL is an active participant in the future scientific enterprise in Washington with the state’s K-12 schools, colleges, and universities. The Laboratory sends staff members to the classroom and brings hundreds of students to the PNNL campus to help train the next generation of scientists, engineers, mathematicians, and technicians. This investment in human capital, though difficult to measure in terms of current dollars of economic output, is among the important lasting legacies of the Laboratory. Finally, PNNL contributes to the local community with millions of dollars’ worth of cash and in-kind corporate and staff contributions, all of which strengthen the economy. This report quantifies these effects, providing detailed information on PNNL’s revenues and expenditures, as well as the impacts of its activities on the rest of the Washington State economy. This report also describes the impacts of the four closely related activities: health care spending, spinoff companies with roots in PNNL, visitors to the Laboratory, and PNNL retirees.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Evolution of the U.S. Energy Service Company Industry: Market Size and Project Performance from 1990-2008

The U.S. energy service company (ESCO) industry is an example of a private sector business model where energy savings are delivered to customers primarily through the use of performance-based contracts. This study was conceived as a snapshot of the ESCO industry prior to the economic slowdown and the introduction of federal stimulus funding mandated by enactment of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA). This study utilizes two parallel analytic approaches to characterize ESCO industry and market trends in the U.S.: (1) a “top-down” approach involving a survey of individual ESCOs to estimate aggregate industry activity and (2) a “bottom-up” analysis of a database of -3,265 projects (representing over $8B in project investment) that reports market trends including installed EE retrofit strategies, project installation costs and savings, project payback times, and benefit-cost ratios over time. Despite the onset of an economic recession, the U.S. ESCO industry managed to grow at about 7% per year between 2006 and 2008. ESCO industry revenues are relatively small compared to total U.S. energy expenditures (about $4.1 billion in 2008), but ESCOs anticipated accelerated growth through 2011 (25% per year). We found that 2,484 ESCO projects in our database generated -$4.0 billion ($2009) in net, direct economic benefits to their customers. We estimate that the ESCO project database includes about 20% of all U.S. ESCO market activity from 1990-2008. Assuming the net benefits per project are comparable for ESCO projects that are not included in the LBNL database, this would suggest that the ESCO industry has generated -$23 billion in net direct economic benefits for customers at projects installed between 1990 and 2008. We found that nearly 85% of all public and institutional projects met or exceeded the guaranteed level of savings. We estimated that a typical ESCO project generated $1.5 dollars of direct benefits for every dollar of customer investment. There is empirical evidence confirming that the industry is responding to customer demand by installing more comprehensive and complex measures—including onsite generation and measures to address deferred maintenance—but this evolution has significant implications for customer project economics, especially at K-12 schools. We found that the median simple payback time has increased from 1.9 to 3.2 years in private sector projects since the early-to-mid 1990s and from 5.2 to 10.5 years in public sector projects for the same time period.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Economic Impact of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory on the State of Washington in Fiscal Year 2014

PNNL is a large economic entity with a total of 4,308 employees, $939 million (M) in total funding, and $1.02 billion (B) in total spending during FY 2014. The number of employees that live in Washington State is 4,026 or 93 percent of the Laboratory staff. he Laboratory directly and indirectly supported $1.45 billion in economic output, 6,832 jobs, and $517 million in Washington State wage income from current operations. The state also gained more than $1.19 billion in output, over 6,200 jobs, and $444 million in income through closely related economic activities such as visitors, health care spending, spending by resident retirees, and spinoff companies. PNNL affects Washington’s economy through commonly recognized economic channels, including spending on payrolls and other goods and services that support Laboratory operations. Less commonly recognized channels also have their own impacts and include company-supported spending on health care for its staff members and retirees, spending of its resident retirees, Laboratory visitor spending, and the economic activities in a growing constellation of “spinoff” companies founded on PNNL research, technology, and managerial expertise. PNNL also has a significant impact on science and technology education and community not-for-profit organizations. PNNL is an active participant in the future scientific enterprise in Washington with the state’s K-12 schools, colleges, and universities. The Laboratory sends staff members to the classroom and brings hundreds of students to the PNNL campus to help train the next generation of scientists, engineers, mathematicians, and technicians. This investment in human capital, though difficult to measure in terms of current dollars of economic output, is among the important lasting legacies of the Laboratory. Finally, PNNL contributes to the local community with millions of dollars’ worth of cash and in-kind corporate and staff contributions, all of which strengthen the economy. The purpose of this report is to quantify these effects, providing detailed information on PNNL’s revenues and expenditures, as well as the impacts of its activities on the rest of the Washington State economy.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2015

State Approaches to Demand Reduction Induced Price Effects: Examining How Energy Efficiency Can Lower Prices for All

Effects (DRIPE) as a real, quantifiable benefit of energy efficiency and demand response programs. DRIPE is a measurement of the value of demand reductions in terms of the decrease in wholesale energy prices, resulting in lower total expenditures on electricity or natural gas across a given grid. Crucially for policymakers and consumer advocates, DRIPE savings accrue not only to the subset of customers who consume less, but to all consumers. Rate-paying customers realize DRIPE savings when price reductions across an electricity or natural gas system are passed on to all retail customers as lower rates (depending upon regulation and market structure, residual savings may be wholly or partially retained by utilities). DRIPE savings, though seemingly small in terms of percent price reductions or dollars per household, can amount to hundreds of millions of dollars per year across entire states or grids. Therefore, accurately assessing DRIPE benefits can help to ensure appropriate programs are designed and implemented for energy efficiency measures. This paper reviews the existing knowledge and experience from select U.S. states regarding DRIPE (including New York and Ohio), and the potential for expanded application of the concept of DRIPE by regulators. Policymakers and public utility commissions have a critical role to play in setting the methodology for determining DRIPE, encouraging its capture by utilities, and allocating DRIPE benefits among utilities, various groups of customers, and/or society at large. While the methodologies for estimating DRIPE benefits are still being perfected, policymakers can follow the examples of states such as Maryland and Vermont in including conservative DRIPE estimates in their resource planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗