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At least 73 records · Page 4

Solar Cycle Prediction

Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan your next vacation. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. I will describe the current state of solar cycle predictions and anticipate how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Pesnell, William Dean↗

Solar Cycle Predictions

Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

Pesnell, William Dean↗

A Dynamo Simulation Generating Saturn-Like Small Magnetic Dipole Tilts

Abstract Among planetary dynamos, the magnetic field of Saturn stands out in its exceptional level of axisymmetry. One of its peculiar features is that the magnetic dipole mode is tilted with respect to the planetary rotation axis by only ≈0.007° or less. Numerical dynamo simulations performed in this context have had great difficulty in producing such small dipole tilt angles without introducing ad hoc ingredients such as a latitudinally varying heat flux pattern in the outer layers or stably stratified layers (SSLs). Here we present a numerical dynamo simulation that generates a highly axisymmetric dynamo with a dipole tilt of about ≈0.0008° on average. The model consists of a deep dynamo layer and an overlying low-conductivity layer but without any SSLs. We highlight a novel mechanism where strong differential rotation generated in the atmospheric layer penetrates into the dynamo region, helping to maintain a very small magnetic dipole tilt. Plain Language Summary Saturn's dipole-dominant magnetic field exhibits a very peculiar feature: the dipole component of the planetary magnetic field is tilted by less than ≈0.007° with respect to the planetary spin axis. Numerical simulations performed in this context suggest that if a spatial heat-flux variation is imposed, along with a stably stratified region, on top of an active dynamo layer, then small dipole tilt values can be realized. Here we present a model where extremely small dipole tilt values can be achieved without these ad hoc ingredients. Our simulations demonstrate that dynamo theory allows extremely small dipole tilt values in a relatively simple model configuration.

Rakesh Kumar Yadav↗

Generation of Near-Equipartition Magnetic Fields in Turbulent Collisionless Plasmas

The mechanisms that generate “seed” magnetic fields in our Universe and that amplify them throughout cosmic time remain poorly understood. By means of fully kinetic particle-in-cell simulations of turbulent, initially unmagnetized plasmas, here we study the genesis of magnetic fields via the Weibel instability and follow their dynamo growth up to near-equipartition levels. In the kinematic stage of the dynamo, we find that the rms magnetic field strength grows exponentially with rate γ B ≃0.4⁢u rms /L, where L/2⁢π is the driving scale and u rms is the rms turbulent velocity. In the saturated stage, the magnetic field energy reaches about half of the turbulent kinetic energy. Here, magnetic field growth is balanced by dissipation via reconnection, as revealed by the appearance of plasmoid chains. At saturation, the integral-scale wave number of the magnetic spectrum approaches k int ≃12⁢π/L. Our results show that turbulence—induced by, e.g., the gravitational buildup of galaxies and galaxy clusters—can magnetize collisionless plasmas with large-scale near-equipartition fields.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Finding evidence for inflation and the origin of galactic magnetic fields with CMB surveys

The origin of the μG magnetic fields observed in galaxies is unknown. One promising scenario is that magnetic fields generated during inflation, larger than 0.1 nG on Mpc scales, were adiabatically compressed to μG strengths in galaxies during structure formation. Thus, detecting a scale-invariant primordial magnetic field (PMF) above 0.1 nG on Mpc scales just after recombination would indicate an inflationary origin of galactic magnetic fields. Furthermore, this would also provide compelling evidence that inflation occurred since only an inflationary mechanism could generate such a strong, scale-invariant magnetic field on Mpc scales. In contrast, constraining the scale-invariant PMF strength to be below 0.1 nG would imply an inflationary scenario is not the primary origin, since such weak PMFs cannot be amplified enough via adiabatic compression to produce the strength of the galactic fields we observe today. We find that measurements of anisotropic birefringence by future CMB surveys will be able to improve the sensitivity to Mpc-scale inflationary PMFs by an order of magnitude, and, in particular, that CMB-HD would lower the upper bound to 0.072 nG at the 95% C.L., which is below the critical 0.1 nG threshold for ruling out a purely inflationary origin. If inflationary PMFs exist, we find that a CMB-HD survey would be able to detect them with about 3σ significance or higher, providing evidence for inflation itself.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Melting and transport properties of Al 2⁢ O 3 at extreme conditions

The high-pressure, temperature phase diagram and transport properties of materials are of broad interest to planetary sciences and high-energy-density sciences and applications. Alumina (Al 2 O 3 ) or its various forms (e.g., solutions with other oxides or silicates) are important constituents in Earth’s and super-Earths’ mantles, common window materials in dynamic compression experiments, and standard pressure calibrators in diamond-anvil-cell experiments. Its structures and transport properties are of particular importance but have not been well studied at above 100 GPa pressures. Based on extensive first-principles molecular dynamics calculations, we obtain atomic level insights on structural differences and accurate results on electrical conductivity (σ dc ), thermal conductivity (κ), and reflectivity of Al 2 O 3 in several phases at pressures of ~130–1300 GPa and temperatures of 4000–20,000 K. We find the solid-to-liquid state changes of Al 2 O 3 are accompanied by an insulator-to-semimetal transition with enhanced σ dc and κ, which is similar to other silicates and oxides and can facilitate magnetic field generation in deep interiors of rocky planets. We also find the solid-to-solid transition (from Rh 2 O 3 (II) to CaIrO 3 ) is accompanied by negligible changes in σ dc and κ at 160 GPa, contrary to previous expectations, whereas another higher pressure phase transition (CaIrO 3 to U 2 S 3 at 450 GPa) is associated with increases in σ dc and κ. Furthermore, we show the transport properties can be enhanced by oxygen vacancy in Al 2 O 3 , but are not significantly affected by forming solutions with MgSiO 3 , particularly when in the solid states.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Helical dynamo growth and saturation at modest versus extreme magnetic Reynolds numbers

Understanding magnetic field growth in astrophysical objects is a persistent challenge. In stars and galaxies, turbulent flows with net kinetic helicity are believed to be responsible for driving large-scale magnetic fields. However, numerical simulations have demonstrated that such helical dynamos in closed volumes saturate at lower magnetic field strengths when increasing the magnetic Reynolds number Rm . This would imply that helical large-scale dynamos cannot be efficient in astrophysical bodies without the help of helicity outflows such as stellar winds. But do these implications actually apply for very large Rm ? Here we tackle the long-standing question of how much helical large-scale dynamo growth occurs independent of Rm in a closed volume. We analyze data from numerical simulations with a new method that tracks resistive versus nonresistive drivers of helical field growth. We identify a presaturation regime when the large-scale field grows at a rate independent of Rm , but to an Rm -dependent magnitude. The latter Rm dependence is due to a dominant resistive contribution, but whose fractional contribution to the large-scale magnetic energy decreases with increasing Rm . We argue that the resistive contribution would become negligible at large Rm and an Rm -independent dynamical contribution would dominate if the current helicity spectrum in the inertial range is steeper than k 0 . As such helicity spectra are plausible, this renews optimism for the relevance of closed dynamos. Our work pinpoints how modest Rm simulations can cause misapprehension of the Rm → ∞ behavior. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Manifestations of dynamo driven large-scale magnetic field in accretion disks of compact objects

A turbulent dynamo nonlinear theory of turbulence was developed that shows that in the compact objects of accretion disks, the generated large-scale magnetic field (when the generation takes place) has a practically toroidal configuration. Its energy density can be much higher than turbulent pulsations energy density, and it becomes comparable with the thermal energy density of the medium. On this basis, the manifestations to which the large-scale magnetic field can lead at the accretion onto black holes and gravimagnetic rotators, respectively, are presented.

Chagelishvili, G. D.↗

Ambipolar diffusion drifts and dynamos in turbulent gases

Ambipolar drift in turbulent fluids are considered. Using mean-field electrodynamics, a two-scale theory originally used to study hydromagnetic dynamos, it is shown that magnetic fields can be advected by small-scale magnetosonic (compressional) turbulence or generated by Alfvenic (helical) turbulence. A simple dynamo theory is made and is compared with standard theories in which dissipation is caused by turbulent diffusion. The redistribution of magnetic flux in interstellar clouds is also discussed.

Zweibel, Ellen G.↗

On the mechanism of the magnetic dynamo of the planets

Results of testing the effectiveness of the theory of precessional dynamos in the generation of the magnetic fields of the planets are presented. It is shown that the magnetic state of Earth and of the planets Mars, Jupiter, and Venus can be satisfactorily described by the formula H(i) = H(3) V(i)/V(3) T(3)/T(i) omega(i)/omega(3) sin(alpha 1)/sin(alpha 2) where H, V, T, omega and alpha are the dipole fields, volumes of liquid cores, periods of rotation, rates of precession, and angles between precession vector and angular rotation, respectively, for the planets and earth. The v(i) corresponds to known models of the internal structure. It is shown that the magnetic state of Mercury satisfies this formula if the dynamic flattening of the planet f = .000057-.000083.

Dolginov, S. S.↗

Recent Progress in Understanding the Sun's Magnetic Dynamo

100 years ago we thought that the Sun and stars shone as a result of slow gravitational contraction over a few tens of millions of years - putting astronomers at odds with geologists who claimed that the Earth was much, much older. That mystery was solved in the 1920s and 30s with the discovery of nuclear energy (proving that the geologists had it right all along). Other scientific mysteries concerning the Sun have come and gone but three major mysteries remain: 1) How does the Sun produce sunspots with an 11-year cycle? 2) What produces the huge explosions that result in solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections? and 3) Why is the Sun's outer atmosphere, the corona, so darned hot? Recent progress in solar astronomy reveals a single key to understanding all three of these mysteries.The 11-year time scale for the sunspot cycle indicates the presence of a magnetic dynamo within the Sun. For decades this dynamo was though to operate within the Sun's convection zone - the outmost 30% of the Sun where convective currents transport heat and advect magnetic lines of force. The two leading theories for the dynamo had very different models for the dynamics of the convection zone. Actual measurements of the dynamics using the techniques of helioseismology showed that both of these models had to be wrong some 20 years ago. A thin layer of strongly sheared flow at the base of the convection zone (now called the tachocline) was then taken to be the seat of the dynamo. Over the last 10 years it has become apparent that a weak meridional circulation within the convection zone also plays a key role in the dynamo. This meridional circulation has plasma rising up from the tachocline in the equatorial regions, spreading out toward the poles at a top speed of about 10-20 m/s at the surface, sinking back down to the tachocline in the polar regions, and then flowing back toward the equator at a top speed of about 1-2 m/s in the tachocline itself. Recent dynamo models that include this meridional flow now appear to have some power for predicting the size of future sunspot cycles.

Hathaway, David. H.↗

Neutron star dynamos and the origins of pulsar magnetism

Neutron star convection is a transient phenomenon and has an extremely high magnetic Reynolds number. In this sense, a neutron star dynamo is the quintessential fast dynamo. The convective motions are only mildly turbulent on scales larger than the approximately 100 cm neutrino mean free path, but the turbulence is well developed on smaller scales. Several fundamental issues in the theory of fast dynamos are raised in the study of a neutron star dynamo, in particular the possibility of dynamo action in mirror-symmetric turbulence. It is argued that in any high magnetic Reynolds number dynamo, most of the magnetic energy becomes concentrated in thin flux ropes when the field pressure exceeds the turbulent pressure at the smallest scale of turbulence. In addition, the possibilities for dynamo action during the various (pre-collapse) stages of convective motion that occur in the evolution of a massive star are examined, and the properties of white dwarf and neutron star progenitors are contrasted.

Thompson, Christopher↗

Planetary magnetism and the interiors of the moon and Mercury

Various theories regarding lunar and Mercurian magnetic properties are discussed in terms of the thermal evolutions of these bodies. In particular, the extinct dynamo, the primordial field of external origin, local mechanisms, and the active dynamo hypotheses are reviewed. The theory involving magnetization by an internal dynamo is applied to Mercury, noting that it implies the existence of a molten metallic core, or shell. Possible sources of the energy required for core differentiation are discussed, including accretional heating, long-lived radioactive isotopes, and other radioactive heat sources. Thermal processes which might keep the core molten are suggested along with processes permitting the flow of heat through the mantle. Conclusions suggested by the dynamo hypothesis are reviewed in terms of current models of the thermal evolution of Mercury and the moon.

Cassen, P.↗

Studies of dynamo field structure and related effects: DE satellite project guest investigator program

The establishment of the latitudinal and longitudinal structure of the low latitude dynamo electric (DE) field was initiated using data primarily from the Unified Abstract (UA) files of the Atmosphere Explorer E (AE-E) satellite. Mass plots of the vertical ion drift values were made for 1977, 1978, and 1979. The average diurnal variation of V sub v within 20 degrees of the dip equator is remarkably similar to that obtained at Jicamarca in the same years. The average meridional ion drift velocity vectors, obtained as a function of latitude by combining the average vertical and horizontal (nearly north-south) ion drift values from the AE-E, showed the expected variations with local time and season based on the well known equatorial fountain effect theory. The average diurnal variation of the vertical drift was found for four different ranges of dip latitude for a northern solstice season. The effect of the transequatorial neutral winds was as evident in this plotting format as in the meridional or fountain effect format. Finally, the average vertical drift velocity V sub v, not the east-west electric field E sub ew, was found to be approximately independent of longitude, as expected from the dynamo theory.

Coley, W. R.↗

Invited Talks at Naples and Coimbra

Prior to observations of the solar irradiance from space that began in 1979 there was no hope of obtaining even rough estimates of the solar irradiance variation over a solar cycle, since the space observations made since showed that the magnitude of the variation over a cycle to date is less than 0.1 %, a value too small to measure from the ground. At the same time, it would be useful to know the cycle-dependent variation over more than just the two recent cycles. Lacking a complete theory for the solar dynamo responsible for this variation, the current hope is to determine what proxy might yield the best values. Because there is an excellent database on sunspot umbral and penumbral areas from the Greenwich Observatory for the years 1874-1976 (but not beyond), the possibility exists that these data could be used. This talk will summarize results of a joint study in which satellite measurements of the solar irradiance variation are compared with ground-based measurements from the Coimbra Observatory of sunspot number, umbral area, and total sunspot area to determine which would serve as the best proxy for using the Greenwich observations back to 1874. From the near constancy of sunspot umbral magnetic fields upon which the useful parameter photometric sunspot index is based, we expected that umbral area would yield the beat proxy. To our surprise, after performing a statistical study of the observations over the period 1980-1990, preliminary indications are that sunspot number (a parameter available back into the 18th century) may be just as useful as the umbral area. As expected, both are quite superior as proxies to total sunspot area, which includes the penumbral area. This conclusion is consistent with earlier work of Hop and Schatten, who sought a proxy by studies of the umbral-penumbral area ratio. A second motivation for pursuing this work is the possibility that relatively small variations in the solar irradiance may induce larger responses in Earth's climate than would occur from simply introducing the corresponding heat differential into the terrestrial atmosphere. The talk will conclude with a description of why some climatologists are beginning to explore this possibility, which is suggest by some of the space observations used in the above search for a solar irradiance variation proxy.

Jordan, Stuart↗

Magnetospheric currents; Chapman Conference, Irvington, VA, April 5-8, 1983, Selected Papers

A description is presented of theory and models, taking into account magnetospheric dynamo processes, magnetospheric topology of fields and currents, a new theory of sources of Birkeland currents, dielectric and permeability effects in collisionless plasmas, field-aligned current sheets as tangential and rotational discontinuities, electrodynamics of convection in the inner magnetosphere, coupling of Birkeland current rings, region one Birkeland currents connecting to sunward convecting flux tubes, and corrected geomagnetic coordinates for epoch 1980. Other topics explored are related to early history, an introduction to magnetospheric currents, surface observations, near-space observations, distant space observations, ionospheric effects, plasma instabilities, and current systems in other magnetospheres. Attention is given to the dynamics of field-aligned current sources at earth and Jupiter, fundamentals of current description, polar cap current systems, electric fields and currents associated with active aurora, and the role of currents in plasma redistribution.

Potemra, T. A.↗