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At least 73 records · Page 4

Electronic effects in radiation-induced collision cascades in nickel

The accurate treatment of electronic effects in multi-million-atom simulations of radiation-induced collision cascades is crucial for reliable predictions of primary radiation damage. In this work, we explore the fidelity of a recently developed two-temperature molecular dynamics model implementing an electron density-dependent coupling of electronic and atomic subsystems for cascade simulations in nickel. We show that the parameter-free model realistically captures the instantaneous energy losses during all stages of the highly nonequilibrium cascade process. Our simulations predict two distinct coupling regimes, corresponding to the rapid energy losses through electronic stopping in the early stages of the cascade and to the slow equilibration through the electron-phonon coupling mechanism in the later stages, without the use of separate models or coupling terms. The intermediate stage of the cascade dynamics displays a complex energy transfer between the subsystems, which cannot be interpreted by comparison to either electronic stopping or electron-phonon coupling theories. We therefore compare the predicted atomic mixing, which is sensitive to the energy losses during the intermediate cascade stage, with experimental ion beam mixing measurements. We find good agreement with the experiments, validating the coupling model for the intermediate stage of the cascade. Predictions of final defect numbers and cluster sizes are found in line with the results from conventional electronic stopping-based methods, while significantly reducing the theoretical uncertainty in the outcomes of conventional models stemming from arbitrary choices of thresholds for different coupling terms. Our results represent a notable improvement in cascade damage predictions in nickel, providing validation of the electron density-dependent coupling model for radiation damage simulations in general. The results lead us to propose an interpretation of the electronic energy losses in the intermediate regime of velocities, where we find an effectively nonlinear dissipation.

Crystal defects↗

Cavitation-induced erosion in liquid metal spallation targets – A comparison between a predictive method and measured erosion damage to stainless steel target modules at the Spallation Neutron Source

Neutrons are produced for neutron scattering instruments at the Spallation Neutron Source by bombarding liquid mercury with a pulsed high-energy proton beam. The liquid mercury target material flows through a replaceable stainless-steel target vessel and cavitates during operation due to the extremely high heating rate caused by each proton pulse. Cavitation-induced erosion damage to the mercury-facing surfaces of target vessels is a key concern for target lifetime and has been the subject of considerable research. While numerous experiments have studied and modeled the progression of cavitation erosion damage to liquid metal target containers, direct quantitative measurements of actual erosion of a spallation target vessel were previously not available. Recently, the erosion damage to multiple target vessels operated at the Spallation Neutron Source was measured using a high-resolution laser scanning system, which provided an opportunity to study the efficacy of a cavitation damage progression model. In this paper, a cavitation progression modeling procedure developed using empirical observations is compared to measurements of samples from target vessels after operation. We discuss the strengths and limitations of the technique and propose methods for improving future modeling and predictive accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Chemical-damage MINE: A database of curated and predicted spontaneous metabolic reactions

Spontaneous reactions between metabolites are often neglected in favor of emphasizing enzyme-catalyzed chemistry because spontaneous reaction rates are assumed to be insignificant under physiological conditions. However, synthetic biology and engineering efforts can raise natural metabolites' levels or introduce unnatural ones, so that previously innocuous or nonexistent spontaneous reactions become an issue. Problems arise when spontaneous reaction rates exceed the capacity of a platform organism to dispose of toxic or chemically active reaction products. While various reliable sources list competing or toxic enzymatic pathways' side-reactions, no corresponding compilation of spontaneous side-reactions exists, nor is it possible to predict their occurrence. We addressed this deficiency by creating the Chemical Damage (CD)-MINE resource. First, we used literature data to construct a comprehensive database of metabolite reactions that occur spontaneously in physiological conditions. We then leveraged this data to construct 148 reaction rules describing the known spontaneous chemistry in a substrate-generic way. We applied these rules to all compounds in the ModelSEED database, predicting 180,891 spontaneous reactions. The resulting (CD)-MINE is available at https://minedatabase.mcs.anl. gov/cdmine/#/home and through developer tools. We also demonstrate how damage-prone intermediates and end products are widely distributed among metabolic pathways, and how predicting spontaneous chemical damage helps rationalize toxicity and carbon loss using examples from published pathways to commercial products. We explain how analyzing damage-prone areas in metabolism helps design effective engineering strategies. Finally, we use the CD-MINE toolset to predict the formation of the novel damage product N-carbamoyl proline, and present mass spectrometric evidence for its presence in Escherichia coli.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Statistical evaluation of microscale stress conditions leading to void nucleation in the weak shock regime

Here, we investigate the heterogeneity of the stress state driven by anisotropic deformation response at the single crystal level through five statistical volume element (SVE) calculations of polycrystalline BCC tantalum. This work focuses on grain boundaries as a prominent material defect type prone to void nucleation based upon experimental observations of predominantly intergranular void nucleation in this material. The SVEs are constructed to be statistically representative of larger volumes of material and are meshed such that mean and standard deviation of grain size and orientation information is reconstructed. The computational meshes feature hexahedral (brick) elements and smooth conformal grain boundaries where significant stress concentration is known to occur, a tail effect of interest in the extreme events process of dynamic ductile damage. An existing micromechanical crystallographic plasticity model shown to capture the single crystal behavior of BCC tantalum well is used to perform the polycrystal calculations. The model includes representation of the non-Schmid effect of non-planar screw dislocation kinetics in tantalum. A three-dimensional stress state time profile predicted by damage modeling of a flyer plate impact experiment is applied as boundary conditions to each SVE. Resulting grain boundary stress state statistics are strongly non-Gaussian. Significant structural evolution is observed within the compressive hold before unloading into tension in the stress profile. Strong angular dependence of grain boundary traction magnitude with shock direction is observed. Non-Schmid effects continue to suggest their influence on propensity of microstructural defect types to nucleate voids. A general void nucleation criterion is proposed using probability theory. The general framework is specified to polycrystalline BCC tantalum in the weak shock regime to include the SVE calculations and literature molecular dynamics calculations of grain boundary void nucleation strength. Probability density functions (PDFs) are used to describe the interaction between the local stress state heterogeneity and the distributed grain boundary void nucleation strength state. A causation entropy maximization procedure removes the requirement for ad hoc selection of a PDF functional form and provides a rigorous procedure for data-based PDF determination. The resulting physically informed PDF describes the spatial appearance frequency of nucleated voids as a function of applied macroscale pressure. Lower length scale physics are thus packaged in a precise and computationally efficient way to provide computational plasticity insight to macroscale dynamic ductile damage models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A model to calculate fatigue damage caused by partial waking during wind farm optimization

Abstract. Wind turbines in wind farms often operate in waked or partially waked conditions, which can greatly increase the fatigue damage. Some fatigue considerations may be included, but currently a full fidelity analysis of the increased damage a turbine experiences in a wind farm is not considered in wind farm layout optimization because existing models are too computationally expensive. In this paper, we present a model to calculate fatigue damage caused by partial waking on a wind turbine that is computationally efficient and can be included in wind farm layout optimization. The model relies on analytic velocity, turbulence, and load models commonly used in farm research and design, and it captures some of the effects of turbulence on the fatigue loading. Compared to high-fidelity simulation data, our model accurately predicts the damage trends of various waking conditions. We also perform example wind farm layout optimizations with our presented model in which we maximize the annual energy production (AEP) of a wind farm while constraining the damage of the turbines in the farm. The results of our optimization show that the turbine damage can be significantly reduced, more than 10 %, with only a small sacrifice of around 0.07 % to the AEP, or the damage can be reduced by 20 % with an AEP sacrifice of 0.6 %.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Reassessing energy deposition for the ITER 5 MA vertical displacement event with an improved DINA model

The beryllium (Be) main chamber wall interaction during a 5 MA/1.8 T upward, unmitigated VDE scenario, first analysed in [J. Coburn et al., Phys. Scr. T171 (2020) 014076] for ITER, has been re-evaluated using the latest energy deposition analysis software. Updates to the DINA disruption model are summarized, including an improved numerical convergence for the 0D power balance, limitations on the safety factor within the plasma core, and the choice to maintain a constant plasma +halo poloidal cross-section. Such updates result in a broad halo region and higher radiated power fractions compared to previous models. The new scenario lasts for ~75 ms and deposits ~29 MJ of energy, with the radial distribution of parallel heat flux q‖(r)resembling an exponential falloff with an effective λ_q=75-198 mm. A maximum halo width w_h of 0.52 m at the outboard midplane is observed. SMITER field line tracing and energy deposition simulations calculate a q_{⊥,max} of ~83 MW/m^2 on the upper first wall panels (FWP). Heat transfer calculations with the MEMOS-U code show that the FWP surface temperature reaches ~1000 K, well below the Be melt threshold. Variations of this 5 MA scenario with Be im-purity densities from 0 to 3∙10^19 m^-3 also remain below the melt threshold despite differences in energy deposition and duration. These results are in contrast to the early study which predicted melt damage to the first wall [J. Coburn et al., Phys. Scr. T171 (2020) 014076], and emphasize the importance of accurate models for the halo width w_h and the heat flux distribution q‖(r)within that halo width. The 2020 halo model in DINA has been compared with halo current experiments on COMPASS, JET, and Alcator C-Mod, and the preliminary results build confidence in the broad halo width predictions. Results for the 5 MA VDE are compared with those for a 15 MA equivalent, generated using the new DINA model. At the higher current, significant melting of the upper FWP is to be expected.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Radiation damage effects in beryllium for next generation neutrino beam targetry (Final Technical Report)

Current and future high-power accelerators put severe requirements on materials used for target and beam windows and target facilities have been recognized as a critical challenge in development of future particle accelerators. In accelerators, window and target materials are exposed to extreme conditions, which include bombardment with very high energy protons (1- 100 GeV) and thermomechanical shock waves. Radiation can cause direct damage in the material, and it leads to production of transmutation products (especially helium), both phenomena having a potential adverse effect on the stability and durability of the target/window material. At high enough temperatures, He can aggregate to form gas bubbles, which in turn cause significant dimensional changes (swelling), enable easy crack propagation, and eventually cause failure by fracture. On the other hand, if the temperature is too low, radiation damage accumulates in the form of internal defects (e.g., dislocations), leading to hardening and a decreased ductility of the material. In this project, we will focus on beryllium since it is considered to be one of the candidate materials for beam windows and targets in the next-generation proton accelerators, e.g., the Long Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF). Radiation effects in Be have been studied in the context of nuclear fusion reactor applications. However, key differences exist between reactor and accelerator conditions, including neutron vs. proton irradiation, continuous vs. pulsed beam flux, much higher energies of bombarding particles in accelerators, and higher operating temperatures for typical reactors. For example, the impact of beam pulsing on the radiation damage and the He bubble kinetics is largely unknown. While results obtained on Be from fusion research might not be directly transferrable to understanding target materials, there is an opportunity to bring state-of-the-art tools from materials research in nuclear reactors to aid design of target and beam window materials in high-power accelerators. To this end, the overarching goal of this project are to develop an experimentally-validated computational framework capable of predicting radiation damage evolution in beryllium relevant to beam window and target conditions, focusing on He bubble formation and growth as a function of irradiation temperature. Our model will be based on the cluster dynamics formalism, where size distribution of defects and He bubbles is simulated as a function of time, temperature, and radiation dose. Parameters for the model will be taken from published experiments and from high-fidelity atomistic simulations proposed in this project. In addition, we will carry out a series of targeted ex-situ and in-situ dual-beam experiments using low-energy protons to provide critical data for validation of the model on the effects of radiation on He clustering, He bubble distribution, and dislocation loop density/size in proton irradiated Be.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Borehole breakout modeling in arkose and granite rocks

The existence of a deep borehole in the Earth’s crust disturbs the local stresses and creates a stress concentration that may result in breakout and damage to the borehole. Maintaining wellbore integrity mitigates environmental impacts such as groundwater contamination, gas leakage to the atmosphere, and fluid spills and seepage at the surface. In this paper, the stability of deep boreholes (5 km) is examined by laboratory experiments and numerical models in the context of nuclear waste disposal in Israel. Two rock types in southern Israel are considered: the crystalline basement (granite) and the Zenifim Formation (arkose). A series of room-temperature triaxial rock deformation experiments were conducted at different confining pressures. This mechanical characterization was then used to parameterize the elastic properties and damage behavior of the rocks. This facilitated modeling the stability of the deep boreholes by two different formulations of damage rheology: a dynamic-oriented formulation used to model deformation immediately after the creation of the open hole and a quasi-static formulation used to model longer stress corrosion regime. The calibrated modeling results indicate greater stability with Zenifim arkose than the crystalline granite for deep borehole conditions despite the granite having a greater triaxial compressive strength. Dissipation associated with dilation and porous compaction in the arkose during deformation plays a significant stabilizing role in the borehole compared to crystalline rocks. These results suggest that common strength-based borehole stability assessment may lead to inaccurate predictions. Three-dimensional modeling of bottom-hole stress conditions and the effects of transient borehole geometry show conventional two-dimensional analysis may not be conservative when predicting borehole damage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluating the grain-scale deformation behavior of a single-phase FCC high entropy alloy using synchrotron high energy diffraction microscopy

We report although the deformation behavior of high-entropy alloys (HEAs) has been extensively studied at the macroscale, many important properties have yet to be explored for these alloys at the microscale, thus hampering accurate prediction of damage and failure processes. Synchrotron high-energy diffraction microscopy (HEDM) and fast-Fourier transform-based crystal plasticity modeling was conducted to investigate the three-dimensional (3D) grain-resolved micromechanical response for approximately 1,900 constituent grains within a single-phase FCC HEA up to 1% applied strain. The evolution of grain-resolved elastic strains, lattice reorientations, and maximum resolved shear stresses (mRSS) were evaluated to quantify elastic, yield, and fully plastic behavior. Overall, the initial critical resolved shear stress (CRSS), determined via in situ HEDM and companion modeling, was found to be > 20% higher than estimated using the classical polycrystalline Taylor factor (M = 3.06). However, a descriptive parameter based on the average grain-resolved Taylor factor ($\overline{M}$) was found to show excellent agreement with plastic yielding behavior observed within HEDM datasets. Noticeable deviations in HEDM lattice reorientations compared to both EVP-FFT simulations and classical predictions for FCC polycrystals were discovered, highlighting the complexity in correlating local lattice reorientations, Taylor, and Schmid factors with plastic response for this material at the grain-scale. Therefore, it is anticipated that the overall trends and parameter identification of 3D grain-resolved properties in this study can serve as an important foundation for continued mesoscale investigation on both well-established and newly developed Cantor-like HEAs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Arbitrary Order Virtual Element Methods for High‐Order Phase‐Field Modeling of Dynamic Fracture

ABSTRACT Accurate modeling of fracture nucleation and propagation in brittle and ductile materials subjected to dynamic loading is important in predicting material damage and failure under extreme conditions. Phase‐field fracture models have garnered a lot of attention in recent years due to their success in representing damage and fracture processes in a wide class of materials and under a variety of loading conditions. Second‐order phase‐field fracture models are by far the most popular among researchers (and increasingly, among practitioners), but fourth‐order models have started to gain broader acceptance since their more recent introduction. The exact solution corresponding to these high‐order phase‐field fracture models has higher regularity. Thus, numerical solutions of the model equations can achieve improved accuracy and higher spatial convergence rates. In this work, we develop a virtual element framework for the high‐order phase‐field model of dynamic fracture. The virtual element method (VEM) can be regarded as a generalization of the classical finite element method. In addition to many other desirable characteristics, the VEM allows computing on polytopal meshes. Here, we use ‐conforming virtual elements and the generalized‐ time integration method for the momentum balance equation, and adopt ‐conforming virtual elements for the high‐order phase‐field equation. We verify our virtual element framework using classical quasi‐static benchmark problems and demonstrate its capabilities with the aid of numerical simulations of dynamic fracture in brittle materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A new self-adaptive reconstruction method to identify defects through Wigner–Seitz approach

A new self-adaptive reconstruction method based on local atomic structure at any given molecular dynamics (MD) step has been developed in this article. The method can be used in Wigner–Seitz defect analysis approach to correctly and efficiently explore the information of both point defects and complex defect clusters (e.g. dislocation loops and voids) formed after a displacement cascade where the cascade interacts with grain boundaries and/or dislocations. The algorithm and validation are provided in detail. Results for identification of radiation defects during and after cascades interacting with a dislocation network show that the new method can well recognize all simple and complex defects and defect clusters. Thus, this new method provides a totally new way to explore the density and size of radiation defects at atomic scale after complex MD evolution processes, providing correct information to understand and predict radiation damage in materials through atomic simulations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Metallic fuel cladding degradation model development and evaluation for BISON

Fuel cladding chemical interaction (FCCI) and coolant cladding chemical interaction (CCCI), both consume stainless-steel cladding in sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs), and effectively degrade cladding mechanical performance through thickness reduction. Therefore, FCCI/CCCI and corresponding cladding degradation models are essential for advanced fuel performance codes, such as BISON, to reliably predict cladding behavior in SFRs. Here, we report the development and implementation efforts for BISON's FCCI/CCCI correlations and cladding degradation models based on U.S. legacy metallic fuel data. The models were evaluated using Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) program X447/A experiment data supported by the ongoing integration project enabling coordinated application of BISON and EBR-II fuel irradiation and physics database (FIPD). Furthermore, the implemented models were demonstrated to improve BISON's capabilities of predicting cladding damage and degradation behavior that is more consistent with post-irradiation examination observations. Additionally, some limitations of current BISON modules are identified, which are to be overcome through the BISON-FIPD integration efforts.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Mesh and model requirements for capturing deep-stall aerodynamics in low-Mach-number flows

Here, this work presents a comprehensive computational fluid dynamics investigation of the effects of grid resolution and turbulence-model choice for capturing the unsteady three-dimensional aerodynamic performance of NACA 0012 and 0021 airfoils, with specific focus on the deep-stall regime. At high angles of attack (α), wind turbine blades routinely experience vortex-induced vibrations, which can cause significant structural damages. Accurate predictions of post-stall aerodynamics can identify the frequencies at which such vibrations maybe triggered. In this context, the NACA 0012 airfoil simulations are conducted at a chord-based Reynolds number, Re c =2×10 6 , with the k-ω Shear-Stress Transport Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) and Improved Delayed Detached Eddy Simulation (IDDES) hybrid RANS-Large Eddy Simulation turbulence models. The effect of mesh resolution both in the wall-normal and spanwise directions is investigated. Only the IDDES model with a minimum spanwise resolution of 24 cells per chord length correctly predicts the aerodynamic forces. Spectral analysis shows the peak primary shedding frequency at α=30°, which signifies the end of the stall region. In the post-stall regime, both lift and drag frequencies drop asymptotically with increasing α. The Strouhal number, based on normalised chord length, remains nearly constant in this region. Based on this study, NACA 0021 airfoil runs are performed with IDDES for Re c =2.7×10 5 and 2.0×10 6 on the finest wall-normal mesh and three spanwise grids. Simulations conducted on the finer spanwise grids demonstrate grid independence and show good agreement with experiments. The effect of varying Rec on the airfoil frequency statistics is investigated. Additionally, comparison studies are presented to investigate the impact of airfoil thickness on the frequency content at Re c =2.0×10 6 . The results from the study provide guidance on the choice of mesh resolution with the IDDES model to accurately capture aerodynamic quantities for complex industrial applications.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Vessels Irradiation Experimental Campaign

The purpose of this report is to document the neutron flux field characterization experiments and to provide experiment data to validate radiation transport models. To predict material damage, irradiation experiments expose materials to known radiation fields to correlate the exposure to damage effects. As a part of irradiation experiments, the neutron field in the experiment must be well characterized; this characterization includes effects like room return. Only the neutron component of the 252 Cf sources is considered in theses measurements and calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Integrated model predictions on the impact of substrate damage on gas dynamics during ITER burning-plasma operations

Divertor design and choice of plasma-facing materials (PFM) will be essential to the success of next-generation fusion reactors as they operate under more powerful scenarios. Understanding and controlling interactions between the plasma and PFM is essential to making these choices. Within these plasma–material interactions and especially in tungsten (W), the interplay between the most abundant plasma species (hydrogen isotopes and helium, He) with the wall material alters fuel retention. However, this interplay is yet to be sufficiently understood to confidently project fuel retention levels to future fusion devices. The paper presents a series of integrated simulations of fusion plasmas and their interaction with tungsten. Specifically, this study assesses the impact of He plasma pre-exposure on hydrogenic species retention during 100 s of burning plasma operations (BPO) in ITER. Multiple pre-exposure scenarios are considered, including sub-surface damage resulting from exposures in the linear device PISCES and from early ITER He-operation. The predictions from these consecutive He-BPO exposures show that fuel content and spatial distribution in the material are largely determined by the He-induced damage, as manifest in: (i) changes in surface temperature expected during BPO have little effect on fuel retention in the presence of He-induced damage; (ii) gas content stabilizes quickly in substrates pre-exposed in PISCES, at levels set by the concentration of pre-existing vacancies, while it continues to increase in substrates initially pristine or pre-exposed to ITER He plasmas; (iii) the presence of He and He–V clusters in the near-surface region locally increases hydrogenic retention, but decreases its permeation; this results in hydrogenic species that remain closer to the surface in pre-damaged substrates, while the bulk content is higher for initially pristine cases. In summary, the interaction and binding of D and T with the pre-existing He–V clusters modifies retention and permeation of hydrogen species during ITER BPO.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Development of Graphite Thermal and Mechanical Modeling Capabilities in Grizzly

Nuclear-grade graphites are used extensively in the core designs of multiple types of advanced nuclear reactors. In the reactor environment, graphite is exposed over long durations to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Exposure to these conditions can cause several degradation mechanisms in graphite, including nonuniform volumetric strains induced by irradiation and thermal expansion, which lead to stresses that can compromise the performance of graphite components. Evaluating component integrity, predicting component performance over the reactor lifetime, and developing design standards all require robust tools for predicting fracture initiation and propagation in graphite structural components in nuclear reactors. This report documents progress in an ongoing effort to develop modeling and simulation tools in the Grizzly code for predicting the performance of graphite exposed to reactor conditions. Recent developments include a set of thermal and mechanical models that now include the IG-110, NBG-18, and H-451 graphite grades. Improvements have also been made to a nonlinear damaged plasticity model applicable to predicting damage under tension and compression to quasibrittle materials, including graphite. In addition, enhancements have been made to the extended finite element method implementation targeted at simulating graphite fracture. These include new capabilities for crack nucleation in the interior of a solid body, improved treatment of crack nucleation on free surfaces, and more robust modeling approaches for crack growth approaching free surfaces or other cracks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Coupled diffusion-deformation-damage model for polymers used in hydrogen infrastructure

The soft materials used in the infrastructure of hydrogen storage and distribution systems are vulnerable because exposure to high-pressure hydrogen can lead to mechanical damage and property degradation. Some materials, such as polymers, can undergo mechanical failure due to a phenomenon wherein hydrogen gas diffuses through the polymer chains and occupies preexisting cavities or voids inside the polymer material. If the hydrogen gas pressure is reduced more quickly than hydrogen can diffuse back out of the polymer which is necessary for some applications, the trapped hydrogen gas instead escapes by rupturing the material, causing surface blistering or permanent damage. In this study, a continuum mechanics-based fully coupled diffusion-deformation model with damage is developed to predict the stress distribution and damage propagation while the polymer undergoes rapid decompression failure. The hyperelastic material model, along with the maximum principal strain failure theory, was chosen for this study as it represents the nonlinear material response with brittle failure observed in uniaxial tensile tests perfectly. EPDM polymer was chosen for this study because of its commercial availability and common use in hydrogen storage and distribution system. It has superior mechanical properties, high and low temperature resistance, and certain compounds work well in hydrogen gas. This work is useful for design engineers to alter the parameters while manufacturing polymer composites to increase their performance in a high-pressure hydrogen environment.

Kulkarni, Shank S.↗

Linkages between riverine flooding risk and economic damage over the continental United States

Economic damages from riverine flooding are expected to grow because of climate change. Yet, there are few 7 studies analyzing flooding damages in the U.S. that clearly measure the roles of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability 8 separately and locally. A lack of this knowledge prohibits spatially detailed predictions of future damages. By being 9 able to separate into these three risk factors, we provide all necessary inputs for uncertainty analysis of the flooding-10 damages forecasts that can incorporate new predictive scenarios for each component. To analyze the flooding risk 11 factors of non-coastal counties within the contiguous U.S. between 1999-2018, we gathered information on (1) 12 property and human damages from flooding, (2) maximum annual river discharge, (3) the number of housing units 13 and the years in which they were built, and (4) the incidence of flooding events. We used the method of trimmed 14 least absolute deviated and trimmed least square estimators to obtain the individual impact of hazard, exposure, and 15 vulnerability in the context of censored flooding damages for panel data. The resulting estimates indicate that 16 exposure has been the main driver of flooding risk for most counties in the U.S. Here, we use these estimates to describe 17 the main source of flooding risk for non-coastal counties for the 1999-2018 period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗